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the bastardian reacted to StevieDay1983 in EFL Cup Predictions > Aug 27th & 28th
Cardiff vs Luton
It feels like only a couple of weeks ago that I was writing a preview about a competitive game between Cardiff and Luton at the Cardiff City Stadium. Oh wait, that's because it was! The two sides meet again in the EFL Cup 2nd Round just weeks after playing in the Championship. This time, it's a 7:45pm BST kick-off and there's actually a fair bit of bad blood remaining from the previous meeting.
Cardiff sealed a last gasp victory in a 2-1 win against the Hatters in their league meeting back on Saturday 10th August. The winning goal was scored by former Luton player and summer transfer target of the Hatters, Isaac Vassell. There was no respectful refusal to celebrate. No acknowledgement of his past connection. He celebrated like he'd won the lottery. The constant Cardiff chants referencing Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (we'll hold off calling him by his stage name on here!) didn't help relations between the fans either. Then the war of words between Neil Warnock and Graeme Jones after the game caused further antagonism. All fun and frolics.
Luton will be keen for revenge after that last meeting. I think it's probably fair to say that Cardiff deserved the win. Luton enjoyed more possession but Cardiff's 17 shots compared to Luton's 8 shows the Bluebirds looked more threatening. However, both teams had mixed fortunes since that game. Cardiff have won 1, drawn 1, and lost 1 in the league where as Luton have lost 2 and won 1 in the league.
As @waynecoyne rightly pointed out in the previous thread, Warnock doesn't like a cup game. I can see us fielding a weakened side. Warnock still doesn't know his best XI so this is a great chance to field a side of rivals to the current starting XI. I'm expecting the likes of Curtis Nelson, Isaac Vassell, Will Vaulks, and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing to be given starts. Not bad players but if Luton field a first team and they have the motivation from the last meeting in their mind then I can see Luton winning this game. I'm just not sure they'll do it in the 90 minutes.
Luton Draw No Bet @ 3.00 with Bet365
Total Goals Under 2.5 @ 2.02 with Marathonbet
the bastardian reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > December 4th-5th
Saturday was another dramatic but profitable afternoon with Dagenham scoring 2 very late goals to beat Hartlepool and the Nap's Blyth also won. Sunday's FA Cup bets drew a blank although Southport went very close to landing at a big price. There aren't many games this mid-week, but I have 3 bets.
Concord Rangers v Hampton & Richmond (National League South) Concord's home form is exceptional as if you take out the freak result of them losing 5-0 to Welling the only time they have lost at home in the league this season and the only other time they have failed to pick up points was when they drew 1-1 with Woking. They put in a great performance on Saturday to beat Hemel 2-1 when they only had 10 for the 2nd half. Hampton finally broke the spell without a league win on Saturday. They had only picked up 1 point in 6 games before beating East Thurrock 1-0 on Saturday, but that was hardly a great effort as it was an injury time goal against 10 men against a side in the relegation zone. I don't think it was a performance that suggested they were about to go on a winning run and I really like Concord here. The only slight worry is the fact they played just over 45 minutes with 10 men on Saturday so that might have an effect on things, but otherwise 11/10 with Marathon looks a cracking bet. Halesowen v Alvechurch (Southern Premier Central) As I mentioned just over a week ago Halesowen are not in good shape at the moment and a change of manager made no difference at the weekend when they lost 2-0 to Stratford. That blank meant they have scored just once in their last 7 league games and they have picked up just 2 points in that spell. The away side will be very happy with the way things have gone in their first season at this level as they currently sit just outside the play-offs. They have been in good form of late having only lost twice in their last 7 games, winning the other 5. One of those defeats did come against Biggleswade on Saturday, but this game offers the perfect opportunity to get back to winning ways and they should be shorter than BetVictor's 6/4. Lewes v Corinthian Casuals (Bostik Premier) This game takes place on Wednesday and I fancy the away side to win. As an aside I really recommend watching the BT Sport documentary on Corinthian Casuals as it made for very good viewing and highlighted how well they are doing to be so high in the pyramid. If you weren't away they are an amateur side so no players get paid. A couple of months a go I highlighted how they were struggling and likely to find themselves outclassed at this level. They duly then got hammered by Enfield as to perfectly prove my point. However they have gone on an amazing run since then. In 10 league games since the Enfield defeat they have won 7 of them. Saturday's loss to Wingate & Finchley was the only really disappointing one of the 3 as the other two came against Bishops Stortford and Dorking and those two sides are either side of Casuals at the top of the 10 game form table. Lewes are one point in front of their opponents and after two losses on the bounce managed to get back to winning ways on Saturday when beating Leatherhead 1-0, but the goal came against the run of play and it wasn't a great performance. They have picked up more points and wins on their travels than at home and I struggle to see how the away side are as big as 11/4 (Betfred) to get back to winning ways. Concord 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Marathon and William Hill Alvechurch 1pt @ 6/4 with BetVictor Corinthian Casuals 1pt @ 11/4 with Betfred
the bastardian reacted to StevieDay1983 in Championship Predictions > Apr 2nd & 3rd
Sheffield United vs Cardiff
I had hoped to get a few previews for the Championship out today but the crazy Easter schedule means I will only have time to cover this Cardiff game. It's a tough game for us as we look to earn more points that will take us closer to automatic promotion but we go to Bramall Lane to face a Sheffield United side that still have play-off aspirations.
Cardiff sealed an expected 3-1 win against relegation fodder Burton on the weekend. I hope you followed my double tip of Cardiff -1 and Kenneth Zohore to score! Unfortunately, for the Blades, they lost ground on the top six after a draw away to Brentford. They also had keeper Jamal Blackman sent off so he'll be banned for this game. However, he is replaced by ex-Cardiff keeper Simon Moore. Moore was always a popular keeper with us during his short time with the club. Many felt he deserved more of a chance in goal but never got the opportunity. We know he's a solid keeper so Blackman's absence from goal won't hamper United much, if at all!
Sadly, our away record has been a problem for us. It's not bad but for a team that is second it's not great. We have won 50% of our away games this season but four teams in the division have a better record on the road than us. 5 of our 7 league defeats have come away from home. That being said, United have dropped points in 8 of their 19 home matches this season. We have also gone unbeaten at Bramall Lane since 18th December, 2004. That's 5 league matches at their place undefeated in a row.
I would honestly take a point here. The general feeling is that we need to win at least 3 of our last 8 league matches to seal promotion. Tough matches like this are the sort where you'd be happy to come away with anything. United are under slightly more pressure. They are unbeaten in four league games but we have won 8 games on the trot. I think that run could well come to an end tonight though. I think backing both teams to score and possibly opting for United to score first could be the best bets here. We notoriously start slow away from home. I'm nervous about this one.
BTTS @ 1.95 with William Hill
Sheffield United to score first @ 2.00 with Coral
@waynecoyne, @sajtion, @arvee, @canaries91, @Mindfulness, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @CloughandTaylor, @Tiffy, @PokerWolf1, @teddybear3011, @skyblues88, @allyhibs, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @willie82, @Neubs, @Papa Lazarou, @kulikTS, @Valkovets, @harry_rag, @Pipoca, and @the bastardian, will you guys be betting on the Championship matches today? What do you think of my prediction above? One of the toughest ones for me to call.
the bastardian reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > Aug 7th & 8th
Barrow v Halifax
Two sides that lost on the weekend. Barrow’s poor first half performance put paid to their chances of an opening day win at Dagenham, but they were much better in the 2nd half and were maybe a shade unlucky not to pick up a point in the end. They are on the drift for this game which really surprises me given how strong they were at home last season losing just twice. Halifax lost 2-0 to Aldershot which was a tough first game of the season for them, but I am not sure it gets any easier for their 2nd game given how tough a place Barrow is to visit. I certainly think these two sides will be at opposite ends of the table come April and now they are odds against Barrow look a bet at just over 11/10 with Marathon.
Eastleigh v Sutton Utd
Because of being away I didn’t get to watch the live game on Saturday, but it seems Sutton did a very good job on Orient to come away with a 2-0 victory. The question for me though was how much that was down to Orient’s poor performance. Based on the stats in the Non League Paper Sutton only had 5 shots during the game with just 2 of those on target. To me they clearly did a very good job on keeping Orient quiet and they only managed 1 shot on target the whole game. Off course Sutton’s home form was superb last season, but they were as bad away from home as they were good at home. That makes me wonder if they will be capable of beating Eastleigh tonight as I really do think they in particular have a big advantage on their 3G pitch. Eastleigh themselves had to play on a 3G pitch on Saturday at Bromley and they played out a pretty low key 0-0 draw. Eastleigh will be looking for a much better season this time around and these are the games they need to be winning if they are going to be involved at the right end of the table. The home side are drifting and are nearly 6/4 (Marathon) which looks big to me.
Leyton Orient v Solihull Moors
As mentioned above Orient were pretty bad on Saturday and they will be hoping to put things right this evening against the favourites for relegation. As I wrote on Saturday though I was expecting Orient to get off to a slow start because it has been such a rush for them to get a squad together and from the sounds of it they played like that had been the case on Saturday. Moors on the other-hand had a day off after the council didn’t issue their ground with a safety certificate so they couldn’t host Chester. It is hard to know if that will be an advantage or not, because part of me wonders if playing a competitive game will be more beneficial at this stage of the season compared to not having played one at all. Even so this will be a big game for Moors and I am sure they will be out to make it as difficult as possible for the home side and if they can frustrate them then the home crowd will get on the Orient’s players back. I don’t think Moors’ side is as bad as some people have made out and at 9/2 I will take a punt they can make a winning start to the season against an Orient side with plenty of questions to answer.
Maidenhead v Wrexham
I’m surprised Wrexham are so big for this game and they are as big as around 11/4 with Marathon. A bit like Barrow, Wrexham also didn’t have a great first half of the season and Macclesfield won the game with a 30 yard stunner. Wrexham were much better in the 2nd half though and even Macclesfield boss John Askey thought a draw would have been a fair result. Granted my concern of Wrexham looking like they might struggle to score goals was evident on Saturday, they do otherwise have one of the best squads in the division and I just can’t understand the price. Granted Maidenhead only lost twice at home last season, but that off course was in the division below. They started their season with a solid draw at Maidstone although the home side really should have put the game too bed before conceding a late equaliser. As much as I think Maidenhead will survive this season they will almost certainly be in a relegation battle and Wrexham should be in the play-offs really. At the prices I have to make this the bet of the night as I think Wrexham should be favourites.
Boston v Alfreton
Just the one bet for me outside of the National League and it comes in the shape of one of my ante-post bets Alfreton. They got off to a very strong start to the season beating Blyth 2-0, whilst Boston were woeful in losing 4-0 to Southport. Alfreton certainly have the stronger side on paper and they look capable of making it 2 from 2 for the season. They are being backed but at 21/10 with bwin they still look a big price.