newjack
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Posts posted by newjack
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I really love what @StefanBB wrote. Turkey in my opinion is gonna be a tough nut to crack and they do prefer offense vs defense. On the other hand Italy is no longer "get goal park the bus" kind of a team and is quite efficient in front of a goal. Only problem is they don't concede much. Given the fact that this is the opener I'm really leaning on overs. I do believe the Italy will win as they're the "dark horse" of the tournament but Turkey won't go down without a fight.
Turkey on avg scores 2.2 goals and concedes 1.5, BTTS occured 60% of the time while failing to score 20% of the time and kept a clean sheet 30% of the time in the last 10 matches.
Italy scores on avg 2,6 goals but concedes 0,1. They failed to score 10% of the time but managed to keep CS 90% of the time in last 10 matches.
The odds on Over 2,5 are at 2,3 and probability for o2,5 is at 50%. Prediction is 1:2 in favor of Italy.
- StevieDay1983 and StefanBB
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Man this season is really wierd. I havent been posting much but thats mostly because i cant make heads and tails of whats what.
One thing i noticed is there are alot of pens awarded, in fact avg odds on pen os 2.75 to 3.75, match dependant. Every week we get pen in probably 5/10 matches. See where im going with this?
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Also fancy Eve to beat ManU, safer bet here would be bts + 0,25 at 1.9, high probability of that hitting. Also fancy Sheff to +1,1,5 and straight out ml for small stakes. I think they can hold chelsea back, was evident vs man city.
Slightly leaning to leeds, like their style, but as thfc mentioned i don't see palace here as dogs, will stay away from this one.,
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I'd be careful with Liverpool, it's doubtful they'll lose but with how easy this group is they might not play as hard as you'd expect them this first match.
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Afaik Lovren is out, Firminho is sick but will likely play, Gomey out, Dyk out, that backline looks awful however the good thing pool has going for them is that Bayern's defense this season has been attrocious to say the least. On avg they concede 1.2 goals. They've conceded a goal in last 6 bundesliga matches, 2 against augsburg and herta. They are slowly grinding but i reckon pool will be a very difficult fixture for them and here's why: They're used to pressing footie, holding the ball, attacking and creating chances. And Liverpool simply won't allow it, at best you're looking at 50/50 possesion imo even in spite of liverpool's missing defenders and most probably Fabinho or henderson will play in Lovren's position. I can't see LP not conceding here, but it's also hard to see them not winning at home so imo o2,5&bts or LP&o2,5 might be something to seriously consider.
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I'm sorry, but arsenal priced @11 ??? They're 3 places below city and such dogs? uhmm, yeah city will most likely win but come on this is ridic, taking arsenal +2 at 1.9.
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i tend to agree with above guy. As seen Chelsea, City, Pool fucked up (pool not as much but still). I def feel Bourne is too strong for cardiff however their away form is bad to say the least. Eve/wolves look like an over to me so does united/leicester and ars/city. Honestly utd ml is currently sitting at 2.1 which imo is quite high
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whats with all the complications lately? just looking at some statistics you can tell what is what, i don't wanna sound arrogant or cocky but why bother with low end of the table? it's completely random and basically anything can happen. For that matter upper league table offers some nice fixtures for overs. Assuming Spurs will play poorly based of 1 cup match that they won? come on. Spurs racked 14 goals in previous 4 matches. Since Sol UTD in last 5 matches racked 16 goals. Both have tendency to concieve a goal and both average 1,5+ goals per game. Relying on h2h is irrelevant at this point because Man U's play style is different. Spurs will want to welcome this new attacking crazyness and counter of it. Last meeting was 0:3 at the ol' trafford, i bet Utd will want to get points here, i doubt they'll be happy with a draw especially if gunners botch the match vs west ham. Spurs also can afford to drop points.
Like i said 2nd game i liked was Pool to win to nil (at the time i said it it was at 2.10, now it's 1.95, I expect to drop to 1.9 come match day). pool on avg concedes 0,64 goals per game when away (that % went slightly up because of city matchup). I can't see Brighton scoring. Liverpool control the match start to finish. Win 0:1 or 0:2 most probable.
Arsenal - Westham
Goals goals goals. Previous matches between West Ham United and Arsenal have averaged 3.64 goals while BTTS has happened 64% of the time Arsenal hasn't kept a clean sheet when away this season on avg conceding 2,1 goals while scoring 2,2 (when away). Ham scores 1,5 goals on avg at home while conceding 1,6 goals. Kept clean sheet 9% of the time, arsenal 0%. Super easy bet here.
Last but not least
Everton - Bournemouth
The teams that usually cuck me in this one, but again i can't predict a winner in this one because both teams are hot/cold at times. Just looking at h2h:
Previous matches between Everton and AFC Bournemouth have averaged 3.88 goals while BTTS has happened 75% of the time. This season Bournemouth on avg scores 1,2 goals when away and concedes 2,3 goals. Everton at home scores 1,64 goals and concedes 1,45 goals. Both have kept clean sheets in 20% range while failing to score is also low. (9% Eve). So again I go for goals.Ty and good night
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I like arsenal game for goals, i love bourne/eve match for goals, i adore spurs&mau btts&over. Also I like Lpool to win to nil.
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yeah pretty insane odds on lpool right now, they're sitting at 3.9 at b365 currently. I'll take that easy, even if they lose i still profit longterm from a bet like this
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Well over2,5&bts at 1.9ish looks fairly good bet, it hits more often than odds suggest imo.
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Man oh man, i'm a little discouraged by that last 0:0 result in city/pool game, but i firmly believe we're in for a goal fest. I just can't see under 2,5 in this one. Thoughts?
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I think odds on pool are too high. They dropped a bit last few day but game day i'm seeing them closer to 3 or possibly even sub 3. Yes City is a tough opponent but i cant help but feel value on +0,5 pool currently sitting at 1.9
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Got 2 bets for today:
Palace - ChelseaMan U - Bourne
both bts&o2,5 (how original i know).
Reasons for it is Chelsea conceded 4/5 matches vs palace and each time it resulted in hitting over. I know previous matches were under Conte's but current slump chelsea are in can't be overlooked. CP also managed to find some kind of form lately picking up a win vs City and Leicester while drawing vs cardiff. They clearly can cause problems, i'm not looking for an upset in this one but do feel like CP can score.
Man u game is pretty self explenatory. Under SOL manu look really good, creating spaces and chances, nice attacking footie like ManU should be. On that note they still very much have same defensive issues only this time they're more out there since they tend to press up higher and play more of an attacking footie. Man U conceded both times under new manager and I believe it's gonna take some work on the defensive end. These 2 met good month ago where it resulted in 1:2 for man U however i feel cherries should've won after that 1st half they've had. Again, i'm not seeing an upset in the match but i strongly feel Bourne will score. They were humiliated vs Spurs and they need to produce something here.
BOL
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Interestingly enough public seems to favor the under in eve match, odds went from 1.9 to 2.2 on the over. Am i missing something? I want to slam over harder now.
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I don't know is it just me or are we gonna see a lot of overs tomorrow?
Wat-Che, Sours-Bourne, Leicester-City, Wolves-Fulham to name a few
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I guess great minds think alike, with mou gone i reckon utd winning by 2+ goals so a decent handicap on them wouldn't be the worst idea IMO.
Same applies for Shampton, they've been dogshit up until the managerial switch where they beat Arsenal 3:2. They can definitely score and are full of motivation that's why i don't like the draw there. I'm leaning Shampton actually, Hudder not that great.
Wolves - Liverpool
I read today that reds want to go unbeaten in this year's EPL run. Of course wanting something and achieving it are 2 totally different terms. Wolves playing style actually fits well for Liverpool. They do like to control the game and in this case should they try to do it Liverpool will punish them. I def like Wolves as a team, but I just can't see them getting anything here. Maybe it's me being biased but still, i might see them scoring a goal vs Pool so O2,5 not the worst pick.
I'll do more analysis on friday when i have the time to analyze whole card.
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I have some fun correct score bets on liverpool match:
3:0, 4:0, 5:0 so hopefully your prediction of under 2,5 doesn't come true @StevieDay1983
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was so close to an epic day
oh well
- StevieDay1983, yossa6133, MkayaGG and 2 others
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The only thing from keeping me from Bournemouth ML is the fact that Wolves are playing at home which is of huge significance. I really love Bourne and I do fancy backing +0,5 here at 1.85 and a touch on ML however before doing so let's look at this season's stats for both teams:
Wolves:
Scored on avg 1.25 goals at home, conceded 1.38, BTTS happened in 50% of their matches, kept a clean sheet 25% of the time at home.
Bournemouth:
Scored on avg 1.57 goals when away, conceded 1.71 goals, BTTS happened 43% of the time and they kept a clean sheet 29% of the time.
This stats don't exactly encourage an away win, i'd be more inclined into BTS however BTS is priced at 1.69 which is too low for me. Given the fact that WIlson is back i expect a tad heavier Bourne up front and given the fact that both teams can't keep a clean sheet often and conceed 1+ goal on avg and score 1+ i can see a value on Over 2,5 at 1.9 or even better over 2,5&Bts at 2.20.
I do feel we gonna see a winner here.
Other game I like for today is Palace - Leicester. A simple away win at 2.8. With Zaha and Benteke out I don't feel palace has any sort of attack going for them and with recent loss vs spurs they'll be looking for a bounce back (Leicester). With Vardy fit to play again i think they got this. If you're on a scared side i'd go Leicester 0 at 1.96.
Could be value to bet on Man City at home vs Everton. I'm not a fan of big handicaps on big teams as they usually don't cover them however in this case with the loss to Chelsea and Liverpool taking 1st (yeeey) they NEED 3 pts badly and with UCL done till feb they can focus on EPL. Aguero is fit to play and what better way to display dominance is trashing a decent team at home? I watched Eve vs Watford and in all honesty Watford deserved a win there. They worked whole game for it and it should be 2:1 Watford. I don't think Eve can compete with City especially if they decide to press them hard. Just not enough fire power, yet.
BOL to all
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Gotta factor in Liverpool's tuesday cruicial game for napoli. IMO they'll do like they did vs Burnley, rotate players if they can score great if not bring in late players for a 1:2,0:1 type result, would not back liveprool here, if anything Bournemouth at home has been very good this year, i'd much rather back them or draw.
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Couple of games i like but it all seems so risky lately
Chelsea - City - Very tempted to back city at evens however there's not a lot of teams who can play back at them and win this season, Chelsea is one of them. I read a couple of days back from a Chelsea fan here on the forum that they've had tremendous run of luck and that it will eventually run out. It did vs Wolves, but question is can they win or draw vs city? Hard to say, will definitely be looking into it.
Bournemouth - Liverpool - Def a difficult match to cap. On paper Liverpool is strong, but like Chelsea so did Live had an amazing run of games and Bourne is not at all a bad opponent. Given recent performances of liverpool and given the must win match on tuesday vs Napoli i'd consider backing Bourne +0,5. I feel like Klopp might try and rest some players as well.
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What happened to liverpool this year? Result wise we're better yeah but offensively we suck major ass. I know something's got to give but playing like we're playing we can't expect results for long. Rn i feel utterly bored watching liverpool play.
2020 European Championship Group D Predictions
in Euro 2024 Tips & Predictions
Posted
England vs Croatia
Vast majority seems to be on England and Under. I beg to differ. Croatia is not what it was without Rakitic and Mandzukic, having lost a lot of firepower with those two they're still a good team and @7 is just crazy.
Not gonna go into too much details here so here are the bets:
Over 2,5 @ 2.08 1,5u
Croatia ML @ 7 0,5u
Croatia +1 @ 1.95 1u