JuMeSyn
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Run for the hills!!!! Gamba Osaka Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.45 (Unibet) for a 0.6 stake Odds crashing hour by hour so I am quickly suggesting this one. KO in 5 hours. This is the title decider! Urawa Reds are with 5 points ahead of Gamba Osaka, with 3 matches to go, including this one. Which means that if Urawa Reds win this one, they are champions! Draw also almost assures that, but...you never know. Just look at how Urawa lost the title in 2007. Or how Yokohama lost the title last year! It is true that Japan teams can't cope with these high pressure moments. Urawa Reds have all the pressure today. Japanese headlines are all over: "can they?" "will they?". In all honesty, Urawa Reds have been the most consistent team of J-League, and that usually means one thing: championship. However, they are not the best team. They seem to lack in high-pressure moments, and their football is almost always not convincing. They scrapped a lot of lucky winners during the season. For tomorrow, their main striker Koroki will not play as well, and Sekine or Lee will take the main spot. Urawa played two 60-minute training matches against Kawasaki Frontale during the international break: two 1-0 defeats. Gamba Osaka were 16th place on May, and are now 2nd placed with title chances. Impressive comeback! For me, the best team of the J-League and maybe the one who would deserve the championship for how the grew as a team. They are also on the semis of the Japan Cup, and won the League Cup two weeks ago against Sanfrecce Hiroshima, after being down 2-0!! A Patric brace and an Omori goal helped in turning tables, in a very convincing full-hearted exhibition from Gamba. In a practice match during international break, Gamba played against Hiroshima again: the result was the same, 3-2 for Gamba. Gamba Osaka will play determined football today, I'm pretty sure. They are very motivated after their League Cup win against Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Their practice match against them also shown that their firepower is assured. They have no pressure on them as well, and I'm expecting some good football from them today, and in all honesty, I actually think they will win! But you never know...Gamba's defense hasn't looked that bright lately as well. But I'm pretty convinced that Gamba Osaka have what it takes to score at least twice. Urawa are very far from convincing in defense lately. First half of season they were great, but they seem very nervous at the back. And against players who don't forgive such as Usami and Patric and a well motivated team, this might be compromising.
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Re: International Friendlies 18th-19th November too bad about Argentina - Portugal bet. Had everything to be an Over 2.5 + BTTS. Well, still satisfied about the Portugal win, although we played like sh*t
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Re: International Friendlies 18th-19th November I have been a bit of a mishit around here lately (where is my touch? seriously.), but I really think this will go on the overs. My only concern on Argentina is their solidity: not even near solid enough, and Tata Martino teams defend like sh*t. Against Germany, in their 4-2 win, it could easily been the opposite result as Romero made a handful of impressive saves. I don't expect Martino to rest the most important attacking players (Messi, Di Maria). Maybe Tevez instead of Aguero. Portugal will also play with Ronaldo, Nani and Danny upfront, and that's serious quality. Defensive line could see a change or two though (José Fonte rumoured to play) and Coentrao and Eliseu are main left-back and are both injured, so the youngster Raphael Guerreiro will take the spot. Defensively, we still look a bit leaky. Denmark and Armenia caused big problems on the counter. Referee will be Atkinson, which is your typical english referee: play on, few cards. This will promote a very high-tempo and intense match, so we could see a lot of goalscoring chances with the talent of both teams. I really think this will go on the overs, and I can see both teams scoring and 3 goals at least, so the Over 2.5 + BTTS @ 2.37 looks really good. I'm actually very surprised to see the odds so high, unless I'm missing something here. Also long shot is Argentina to win after being losing @ 9.00.
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Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Friday November 14th I really like the Over 1.5 TG Poland @ 2.25 (bet365), and Robert Lewa TSA @ 2.9 on BF Sportsbook. Poland look like a much brighter side this time and even without Kuba, they have Lewa, Silik and Rybus upfront. That's good firepower, especially Lewa. Rumours about the bad atmosphere in Georgia and the fact that the manager might leave in the end of this match say it all: they are completely wrecked. Not that it will be a walkover, playing in Georgia is never easy, but I think Poland has enough to score twice or even more if they want to win this one.
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Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Friday November 14th I'm glad I didn't stake my bet on Portugal Over 2.5 TG for now. Looks like bad weather is coming up for tomorrow in Portugal, and the Algarve stadium will be affected. This is clearly bad for Portugal and good for Armenia. I think I will make it a NO BET for now.
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Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Friday November 14th
Different scenario now though. New coach for Portugal' date=' who won the Euro's with Greece and describes this as his dream job. Made a good start by beating Denmark. Nani appears to be in good form too. I think Portugal are actually one of the naps of the round, but they're priced as such. Armenia are so hot and cold I wouldn't rule out a spanking.[/quote'] I have to agree here, as a portuguese. Good exhibition against France despite the loss, and a very complicated but deserved win against Denmark in their home (1-0). With the news of Serbia x Albania both losing 3 points, Portugal have a big chance to became group leaders. The whole group seems very motivated from the flash interviews and official press conference interviews. Fernando Santos will not rest any main players for this clash as everyone knows by now that Armenia are a very complicated national squad to face. Still doubts about if Portugal will play in 4-4-2 diamond or 4-3-3, but I'm considering 4-3-3. Main XI should be Rui Patricio; Raphael Guerreiro, Bruno Alves, Pepe, Cedric; William Carvalho, Tiago, João Moutinho; Ronaldo, Danny, Nani. Vieirinha could also play as a right-back, or Adrien Silva in the spot of William Carvalho, but should be something like this. Sure, Armenia are a tough time and could cause us a lot of problems. Mkhitaryan and Moivysian are serious threats on the counter and Portugal defensive line should be warned by them. Armenia also knows how to shut up shop efficiently and their counters are lethal. Portugal must not underestimate them. If they don't, I think this match will be much more straightforward than most of the people think. Especially if Portugal scores early. I believe the real deal for Portugal unlocking this match is by scoring 1 or 2 goals as early as possible. But even if that does not happen, I can't see Armenia holding out a very confident and motivated Portugal squad at the moment, and I predict that even if Portugal concede once, Portugal will be able to score three goals. The fans are already united with the national squad against as well, so support tomorrow will be massive! And with Portugal Over 2.5 TG available at 2.1, I would definitely bet on it. EDIT: Update about the weather in my post below. Careful if you go on with this bet. -
Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Been out for too long. But honestly, not enough time at the moment. Rio Ave looks like a very tired team at the moment. They are conceding just too much now and then, and although they did look good against Steaua (both home and away), and against Benfica away, I wouldn't trust them as I feel they could be on the limit of their strengths. I think they will be very fatigued physically and emotionally after the draw against Steaua (which happened in the last second...). Squad is very short in terms of quality in the back and in midfield, and some players will really feel their legs today. Académica is not the most spectacular team, and lacks a lot of quality (especially in the back). However, they have been getting better match after match, even though I don't trust them enough to ever bet on them against anyone in this league, except Boavista (and they already lost against them, for example...). In matches where I'm not totally comfortable in speculating a bet, I usually go for odds above above 3.0, which is the case, except some minor exceptions. I would say there there is a high chance of a 1-1. Both team are better on the attacking phase than defending. Plus Rio Ave should be very fatigued and could concede. Académica could snatch the point here. Would make a Draw @ 3.4 30% and Correct Score 1-1 @ 7.5 10%. But nothing too serious as I said before.
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Re: Sporting CP v FC Schalke 04 > Wednesday November 5th Nailed it. +1.55 +1.20
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Re: Sporting CP v FC Schalke 04 > Wednesday November 5th Of course I'm more willing to lose this one than win it. odds represent that, but I seriously think there is value there. I know Sporting and Schalke well enough (especially Sporting as I am a Sporting fan) and I know the chances of a high-scoring goal are higher than low-scoring. But just as both of you say, I also think that this one could be a low-scoring affair, but never without Sporting and Schalke conceding. I actually feel that BTTS is a very safe bet tonight considering both have awful defenses, but I can't rate anything that above evens as value. And Even a Di Matteo side can't be so good defensively with 3 weeks of work and a lot of absences in the back.
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Re: Sporting CP v FC Schalke 04 > Wednesday November 5th Over 3.5 @ 3.10 (Betfair Sportsbook) for a 0.5 stake Nani TSA @ 6.00 (Betfair Sportsbook) for a 0.2 stake It's hard not to see goals in this one. Honestly, after what I've seen 2 weeks ago and even if considering the humiliation that happened to Sporting with an unexpected 0-3 loss in Guimarães last sunday, I can safely affirm that Sporting is a much better team that Schalke, that currently are undergoing a transition phase with new coach Di Matteo, and still look a bit on shambles. Di Matteo should give them defensive strength on the long-term though, but for now, they still don't look good enough. Moreover, they have a lot of important absences, including talisman Draxler, central defender Joel Matip, and attackers Jefferson Farfan and Sidney Sam. Other doubtful players are Howedes and Kevin Prince Boateng. Sporting has the whole team available except Mauricio, central defender that is an usual starter, but a bad one at that. Although, Sarr is even worse than him. Sporting defensive line has been compromising too much lately, left and right-backs are not at their best and Rui Patricio looks a bit out of form. Only Paulo Oliveira has been playing well in defence. However, Sporting midfield and attack are very good, are playing really well in 90% of the matches and I expect them to play really well today once again. Nani, Carrillo and Slimani are big firepower, and a midfield with William, Adrien and João Mário could easily dominate Schalke 04 if well organized. In summary: leaky defenses, great attacking power and high-pressure match. Even though Sporting has the advantage and the Sporting + Over 2.5 (3 on Unibet) or Sporting + BTTS (4.2 on BWin) could be considered, I do feel their defensive line could put them at stake if players are unfocused and Rui Patricio (goalkeeper) is on a bad day. Therefore, I avoid to look in 1X2 opportunities and get in the goals market. Over 3.5 looks tasty at 3.10, and I would price it 2.75. EDIT: Also going for Nani TSA @ 6.00. That is massively bad priced!! Should be 4.5
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Kashiwa Reysol -2 AH @ 2.30 (Unibet) for a 0.8 stake Kashiwa Reysol will be facing Tokushima Vortis for matchday 30, and this could be rather one-sided. Kashiwa are in red hot form after their League Cup elimination. Who thought they would come back like this? 3 consecutive (last-minute) wins against tough opposition and they are back to the ACL qualification fight! In all honesty, they are just 3 points behind that spot and with their next fixtures not being that difficult, they stand a good chance to grab a spot, at least. Leandro Montera is a great player and is in-form. He can totally destroy any opposition at the moment, and is well supported by agile Masato Kudo and playmaker Dudu. Kashiwa home form is also something to take note, as they are unbeatable there for 13 matches, which is very impressive. Yes, not even Gamba Osaka could win (or score) there, they actually lost, two weeks ago! Amazing stuff from Kashiwa. Kashiwa are without two important defenders, but Otani (team captain) is back after suspension and will be an important driving force in the midfield. There is a big difference between both teams, and with the fact that Tokushima are awful (last place, worst attack, worst defence) and have nothing to fight for and Kashiwa have a slim hope of getting an ACL qualification spot, Kashiwa will be fully motivated and hopefully they will not underestimate Tokushima. If they don't, this will be totally one-sided and Kashiwa -2 AH is looking good at 2.30 on Unibet. I expect it to lower a bit until the KO.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 break is off. so unlucky, so unlucky. -1.1
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Small stakes. Omiya DNB @ 2.55 (Unibet) for a 0.55 stake Omiya 1-0 @ 10.00 (Unibet) for a 0.1 stake Omiya are one of the in-form teams of the J-League. Since the takeover o K. Okuma after Omiya losing away to Urawa (0-4) in a local derby, he recovered his team to perform a miracle: while they were with 16 points 6 matchdays ago, almost without any hope of surviving, 5 wins in 6 matches made them move out from relegation zone. However, they are still not safe. With 31 points now, usually 37/38 points is enough, and with other rivals in the dogfight with some easy matches (C-Osaka home against Vortis, Shimizu home against Niigata), and with some tough matches against mid-table and 2nd tier teams until last matchday where they will face C-Osaka, a win here would be very crucial for Omiya. I truly believe Omiya will be very focused for tomorrow's match. I have to highlight their attacking power: it is really good. The parternship between Serbian strikers Ljubijankic and Mrdja always means goals. Since K. Okuma took over, Omiya always scored at least once in each match, and I expect them to score tomorrow at least once. Kikuchi and Ienaga (important defender and midfielder, respectively) will not play tomorrow to due to injury and suspension. Defender Kanazawa is doubtful but should play. Yokohama is a team doing a sub-par season. They are not fighting for anything at the moment as well (10th place, 40 points). They have a very solid backline (best defence of the J-League, 24 goals conceded), but also a very weak attack (only 30 goals), which is too dependent on what Saito and Rafinha can do and on the Nakamura set pieces. However, Rafinha hasn't been playing for a while due to injury, while Saito and Nakamura are out of form. Nakamura has had some injury troubles this season, age must be catching up on him! Their attacking form is very worrying...only 2 goals scored in 6 matches make them a very easy team to defend. I don't expect too much from them tomorrow, and they usually fail to cope when playing away against stronger defences and motivated sides. Besides Rafinha, still injured, Ogura (midfielder, starter) will also be absent tomorrow. This match has the Omiya win written all over, possibly by 1-0. It should be a nervous and cagey match during some moments, but their attacking power and momentum should come in handy to roll over Yokohama. On the other hand, Yokohama has been looking very bad in attack, even though they won the last match (1-0). With 2 goals in 6 matches, with Nakamura and Saito out of form and Rafinha still injured, even a still insecure Omiya defence should have few issues around. Stake on DNB Omiya and a small stake on 1-0 win. Gamba Osaka @ 2.30 (bet365) for a 0.45 stake Gamba Osaka need to win in Kashiwa to keep chasing Urawa Reds for the title contention. Gamba Osaka won a very tough home match against Kawasaki Frontale (1-0), where they really didn't do their best match but ended up winning after some very good initial 20 minutes on the 2nd half. Gamba is the best team of J-League, they have quality in every position and have the best attacking unit of the J-League with Usami, Patric, Abe and Endo. Moreover, Konno is back to the midfield. He was truly missed against Kawasaki, which won much more midfield battles without him. It is true that Gamba Osaka is facing one of the teams with the stronger home factor on the J-League. Kashiwa Reysol only has 1 loss at home, in the start of the team (0-1 against Nagoya), and even a top tier team couldn't win in Kashiwa. Moreover, 12 consecutive matches without losing at home, that's really incredible! However, in J-League, momentum is very important. Teams look unstoppable when on it, which is exactly what is happening to Gamba Osaka. Even though Kashiwa is strong at home, when I look at Gamba Osaka, their momentum, the players, their work unit as a team, I just have to say that Gamba Osaka is the much better side. And odds reflect that, and honestly I think there is a bit of value in it. If Gamba Osaka man-marks Leandro Montera efficiently, Kashiwa Reysol threat will be almost non-existent. I expect a strong Gamba Osaka, which could eventually end up winning the match to keep on chasing Urawa Reds.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 AWFUL -1.55 might consider a break from here, not really getting there at the moment.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 League matches are only for the next week. This week is Portugal Cup.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 I have three bets for tomorrow, but only got time to reason two of them, so I'm giving out those that I'm more confident about: Vissel Kobe -1.5 AH @ 2.38 (bet365) for a 0.45 stake Vissel Kobe Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 2.9 (unibet) for a 0.35 stake Vissel Kobe will be playing against last-placed Tokushima Vortis in the match that will start up the 28th matchday of the J-League. Vissel Kobe are on 7th place still with aspirations on stealing a 4th spot for the AFC Champions League qualification. They have a very good attack (Marquinhos, Pedro Junior), a very good midfield (Morioka, Fabio Simplicio, Takashi), but a below average defensive unit and a below J-League quality GK. Their numbers in terms of BTTS home and away say it all. While away, they only didn't concede a goal at least once against Omiya (win 3-0). This shows some worrying defensive weaknesses. Good that tomorrow's opponent is Tokushima! We all know about Tokushima by now. Last place, 16 points difference to second to last team, 3 wins, 3 draws, 21 defeats. 12 goals scored, 62 goals conceded. The numbers say it all, to be honest. They are just not J-League level. Moreover, all of their wins were obtained away. At home, they only obtained 2 draws (against Kofu 2-2 and FC Tokyo 0-0), which also shows their lack of strength at home, where they should dominated, but end up dominated (and sometimes, humiliated). Their already bad attacking power will take a knock for tomorrow's clash as Adriano Ferreira and Kleiton Domingues are injured. Vissel Kobe have a very good attacking unit, and I can't see Tokushima not conceding at least twice against the likes of Marquinhos and Pedro Junior. However, Kobe's defensive line is a worry for me even with all those absences upfront from Tokushima. Also, Vissel Kobe is one of those teams that usually has one or two matches where they just fail every single given opportunity to score. Let's hope that's not tomorrow! That's why I'm splitting the stakes in two bets: Kobe -1.5 AH should they win by a difference of 2 and Kobe Over 2.5 TG, as I think they will scored twice, and there is a good chance they will score three. Gamba Osaka + Over 2.5 @ 2.87 (bet365) for a 0.5 stake Gamba Osaka Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 3.5 (bet365) for a 0.25 stake This is the 3rd duel between Gamba Osaka and Kawasaki Frontale in 10 days. They faced themselves for the League Cup, in a 2 match semi-final, where Gamba Osaka got the better of Kawasaki winning by 5-4 on aggregate (3-1 home, 2-3 away). Both matches shown that Gamba Osaka is just terrific upfront, and against weakened defensive lines they just cannot stop scoring. Their motivation has never been higher than now! On the final of the League Cup, semi-final of the Japan Cup (Emperor's Cup) and 2nd place of J-League, 7 points behind leaders Urawa Reds. And it is still possible to get there! Kawasaki did a very reasonable performance in the League Cup after some bad results in the J-League, but just not enough to beat Gamba Osaka. They also got quite lucky, at least for me. The goal scored away was obtained in the dying minutes and the last 2 goals at home were obtained when Gamba Osaka already were up 1-2 and turned down the engines. And after the loss against Niigata (0-3) for the last matchday of the J-League, their title aspirations are long gone. Their motivation should have taken a knock after these last clashes... Kawasaki have a very good attack that can do massive damage on a good day. With Kobayashi back, they will be stronger upfront. But their defensive capacity is just not good enough to fight against better opponents and the away condition. Gamba Osaka have Konno injured, which is their starter defensive midfielder. Kawasaki have two important doubtful players: GR Sugiyama and captain and midfielder Kengo Nakamura. Gamba Osaka motivation has never been higher and there are no signs of confidence excess of the team. The team classifies this match as hugely important for winning J-League, as the manager promoted a 2nd team in playing the Emperor's Cup quarter-final on Wednesday (and still won 2-0!). Main players such as Usami, Patric, Endo and Abe will be fully rested for this clash. Gamba Osaka players will come in with everything and I believe Kawasaki will have trouble in not conceding twice at least, once again. Both teams prefer to attack than to defend. But Gamba Osaka is much more stronger at the back and plays at home. Also, their motivation is at a higher level than Kawasaki at the moment. Therefore, the best bet for me is Gamba Osaka to win and match to have Over 2.5 @ 2.87 on bet365. Think 2-1, 3-1 and 3-0 are the most possible results. Also some value on Gamba to score 3 or more goals @ 3.5.
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Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Tuesday October 14th Portugal Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.62 (Coral) for a 0.7 stake Portugal + Over 2.5 @ 4.00 (bet365) 0.2 stake Even though Denmark are playing at home and have a good record there against Portugal, circunstances tell a different story: Denmark wasn't even close to convincing in both matches, conceded first in both of them and didn't play well. They have some quality players that can make a difference, but they are not playing their role at the moment. Even though tomorrow they might show up and perform better, Portugal might have too much for them to handle. Portugal comes from a good exhibition against France even though they lost (1-2). This France is terrific, and Portugal made a point there and performed really well in midfield and reasonably in attack. Fernando Santos is the new manager now after Paulo Bento departure due to the disastrous home defeat against Albania (0-1), and teams looks motivated once again and with much more quality with the returns of experienced players such as Ricardo Carvalho, Tiago and Danny (which weren't called-up by Paulo Bento due to conflicts). I can trust Portugal enough to know that they will score at least once. However, I can also not trust them enough not to concede. Full-backs are a definite weak point and will be exploited by Denmark, even though they are not that good on the flanks since the departure of Rommedahl and since the ageing of Krohn-Dehli. Also, Bendtner has a good record against Portugal and might score as well. Honestly, BTTS @ 1.95 could be a very valuable bet, but I don't like odds below 2.00, as anyone who follows my picks knows. So, I'm searching for value above evens, and Portugal Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.62 caught my eye. Massive odds! Portugal will definitely score once due to circunstances, and attack played really well against France. Nani, Danny and Ronaldo will be supported by in-forms Moutinho, Tiago and William Carvalho. I expect Portugal to control most of the match and to be much more closer of scoring twice than Denmark, even if they concede once. That also implies that they are closer to winning and where I expect goals, Portugal + Over 2.5 is also available at 4.00.
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Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Thursday October 9th
You would be seriously amazed to know what sources do betting companies used. I'm pretty sure some must come here once in a while.Alex, surely this is a forum for sharing tips and ideas :eyes:eyes If you think odds compilers come on here to find out where they are going wrong, I think you are living in dream land. -
Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Thursday October 9th for someone completely out of it: what are San Marino problems, if anyone can explain me that? I know they are horror, but something more to share or to know from a neutral point of view.
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Re: Chelsea v Arsenal > Sunday October 5th clean win for Chelsea. 2-0
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Re: Chelsea v Arsenal > Sunday October 5th Without writing a pick, think Chelsea -1.25 and Chelsea Over 2.5 TG are at a massive price. Just like TotoSquillaci said before, this Chelsea is a much better team than the Chelsea that triumphed with a 6-0 last season. Arsenal looks far from convincing at the back, without Ramsey and Arteta, Flamini will be just too short for such quality Chelsea has midfield and upfront. People say Gibbs and Chambers are doing a great season, but against tougher opposition they always looked too short. Then, there's the usual Mourinho x Wenger record... Saw a couple of Chelsea leagues matches and against Sporting Portugal on Tuesday, they look such a Mourinho team. Very mature, brilliant counter-attacking (usual Arsenal problem is defending counters...) and very hard to beat on the midfield as Matic and Fabregas are top form. They could have been up 3-0 by HT if it wasn't Sporting Rui Patricio. Sporting employed a very similar strategy to which Arsenal lost 6-0 last season (although strategy played out well), and should Arsenal try to do the same today, they will concede 3 or 4 goals IMO. Sorry Arsenal fans, this one is going for Chelsea once again. But will be here to congratulate an opposite result. For now, money on Chelsea -1.25 and Chelsea Over 2.5 TG
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 1 win 2 loss 3 loss +0.08.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Gil Vicente x Estoril: BTTS & O2.5 @ 2.50 (bet365) for a 0.65 stake I'm very surprised by this odd, which I consider it as a little gift. Gil Vicente is last placed, with only 1 point. They come from an away loss against Boavista, the worst team on the league (2-3) and that says a lot. They are one of the worst teams of the league, and already on the second manager, which is Jose Mota, a old fashion manager who has no sense of tactic whatsoever. Moreover, defensively, Gil Vicente doesn't have very good players except their GK. Simmy is an average striker, but is in-form and Caetano is a good and pacey winger. Cesar Peixoto is also the brains behind the team, dangerous long range shooting and set pieces. Other than that, team is well below average. They looked good enough in some attacking moves against Boavista and actually had the chances to win it! Think they will have chances to score tomorrow. They will be facing Estoril-Praia, a team that is suffering a bit with the lack of organization at the back lately, but is full of talented players! Their manager Jose Couceiro enjoys attacking football and with the likes of players such as Kleber, Seba, Kuca and Bruno Lopes (good sub) upfront they are always on the edge to scoring goals against anyone. Actually, and not counting Europa Leagues matches, they have always scored at least once for every 6 matches on the league so far. Problem is that they have always conceded at least once...at with their 3rd match in 8 days now their legs should be hurting. They will feel tired at one moment or another in the match. So, that's a typical for you: Gil Vicente is a bad defense and average attack, but play at home. Estoril has a bad defense (atm) and a very good attack, so it all joins in for a BTTS and Over 2.5. Over 2.5 odds are switched, should be 1.80/2.10 and not 2.10/1.80 as they are in most bookies. My bet is BTTS & O2.5, which is at a tasty odd of 2.50 on bet365. I believe both teams will score at least once and at least one of them (possibly Estoril) will be scoring twice.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Gamba Osaka Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.45 (Unibet) for a 0.75 stake A bit of higher confidence here than usual, because I think odds look a bit massive, as I would price them 2.1. Gamba Osaka is on red hot form, and look unstoppable at the moment. They can rely on Usami ("the" players of J-League 2014 for me), Patric (scored a hat-trick in 4-1 win agains Tosu last matchday), Endo and Abe for goalscoring chances and obviously, goals. They'll be playing away against second placed Kashima Antlers, who are also in very good form (as good as Gamba I would say), and come from a very easy win against basement-dwellers Tokushima Vortis (5-0 away). However, they cannot rely on Davi, main striker, who is suspended for tomorrow's match. That is surely a big blow as they rely on him for most of the goals. Kashima Antlers do play at home, where they are unbeatable since the end of the World Cup. But Gamba Osaka is the toughest opposition the have faced at home so far, and when they faced themselves with harder and in-form opposition they struggled (2-2 Tokyo FC) and win against Yokohama (1-0) wasn't that convincing. Their defensive line seems to be lacking some quality and usually concedes at least twice when opposition attacking force is very strong (Tokyo FC, Omiya away, Nagoya away). Gamba Osaka will surely score once with that talent upfront, and I think their chances to score twice are very good as well due to the circunstances. I actually think Gamba Osaka could win this, odds already shortening with so much hype surrounding them, but I'll be going for the Over 1.5 Team Goals odds. Urawa Reds Over 3.5 Team Goals @ 3.4 (SportingBet) for a 0.3 stake I'll have to say lower confidence here as I'm a bit scared that Urawa just underestimates Tokushima or just wants to win 1-0, 2-0 and rest players. But the truth is that Tokushima is so bad that these odds cannot be ignored. Urawa come from a very unexpected and disappointing loss against C-Osaka (0-1). They actually did a very bad match, possibly their worst in a long time, so one could say they could be on their way down to choke once again as leaders. Well, I think that could happen, but not tomorrow. Whole team is available for tomorrow (expect Sekine), and Petrovic already said the team is still very motivated. I'm sure they won't underestimate Tokushima, as they did it once for the J-League Cup, played a second-tier team and got themselves in a lot of trouble, being down 2-3, they scored twice in the final minutes for a 4-3 win. Tokushima are on an awful losing streak: 5 last matches, 5 defeats, 0 goals scored, 16 goals conceded. They come from a very hard defeat to swallow at home against Kashima Antlers (0-5). They are virtually relegated, team is very sub-par in terms of quality to fight for anything in the J-League 1. Tomorrow could be another nightmare for them, and they can't rely on Kleiton (X11 midfielder) and Adriano (X11 striker). Their chances look so slim. My biggest fear, as I said before, is that Urawa underestimates Tokushima once again. There is no better team to do that than Urawa, to be honest. The J-League Cup example I gave before is not the only example. Last year, against a team of the same quality as Tokushima (Oita Trinita), they got themselves losing at home 0-3 by minute 30!! Eventually they showed their attacking strength and scored 4 though. And that is why I'm avoiding handicaps, even if they have a lot of value as well. But even if playing 80% of what they can, Urawa have what it takes to score 3 or 4 goals. The Over 2.5 Team Goals looks too short, but the Over 3.5 Team Goals has a very tasty odd @ 3.4 on SportingBet so I'll be staking some money on that. Kashiwa Reysol Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.37 (bet365) for a 0.4 stake Kashiwa Reysol @ 2.25 (bet365) for a 0.3 stake Kashiwa Reysol are such a striking force at home. They are awful away (a very bipolar team!), but haven't lost since March in their only JLeague 2014 home loss (Nagoya 0-1). Since then, 3 draws and 8 wins! 3 of these wins were against top-3 (Urawa 3-2, Kawasaki 4-1, Kashima 1-0), which is very, very impressive. They are very strong upfront with the likes of Masato Kudo and Leandro Montera, and are on a very good streak at home, with 4 convincing wins where they score twice or more in them. Hiroshima are very far away from the champions form this season. Tied with Kashima in eight place (both with 38 points), they are very distant of having a slim hope of winning a 3-streak championship. Their best bet is to reach ACL qualification, but even that will be difficult. Few motivations for them this season, with most of the team out of form (Sato and Ishiwara not good enough upfront) and without GK Nishikawa (on Urawa now), their defensive line does not looks so god. Kashiwa Reysol last 4 home wins were very convincing and I predict that to happen once again. They look good at home, the fans intense atmosphere surely helps them and I would say Hiroshima have very slim chances of winning tomorrow. They might snatch a draw, but Kashiwa Reysol to win above evens is a gift, as I would price it 2.00. Will also split stakes in Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.37, would price it 2.20. But Hiroshima could hold the 1-0...
Japan j1 league 2014
in Japanese Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Japan j1 league 2014 0-2 goals in 88 and 90+3. Never in doubt.