JuMeSyn
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Re: Wimbledon 2013
Murray won in 5 sets against Federer at the AUS Open this year, I believe. Let's not forget that Federer didn't win against top players last year as well, got to Wimbledon and crushed the opposition. Those facts are irrelevant when one is playing on his best surface. On the top of his game, Federer is still unbeatable on grass. Too bad that for now, Federer is only on top of his game for like, 2/3 games per year :rollin@TheresNoLimit I'll tell you where I get that from - their records against each other in all grand slams. Murray has never beaten Federer in any Grand Slam. Fatigue may beat him against Murray as it did in the Olympics but that is just my opinion and you are entitled to yours. There is no doubt that Federer is not as good as he was but he is still a force on grass. I know he hasn't beaten a top 5 player this year but if they get to the semis we will see? -
Re: Wimbledon 2013
I wouldn't. At all. Federer on a good day can beat anyone on grass. He also has comitted himself to win the 8th Wimbledon title, and be the first one to do it. He wants to be in history for that, and it is his clear motivation before he retires. I can see Federer winning this, and I think everyone is understimating him, even if he has to face Murray on the semis. However, if Murray gets to the final, I'm sure he will win it if his physical condition is recovered after a hard-fought match with (possibly) Federer. Gives me the creeps everyone considering and fancying Nadal to win RG (and duly landed) and being the "clay-king", but one must not forget that Federer has seven, seven Wimbledon titles. Showed good stuff in Halle even if losing a set to Haas and Youzhny. Murray showed some technical issues in Queens, and that might be worrying against a player like Federer. Still showed great mental ability, though, and overcame harder opposition than Federer in general. Didn't appreciate his game against Tsonga, though, looked a lot like Tsonga gave it away in the second and third set. Before Nadal getting eliminated, I placed a bet on Roger Federer @ 9.00 (bet365) to win Wimbledon. Value's all over. 5.00 is not so value right now, but having 9.00 for Roger at the start of the weekend to win Wimbledon is like giving free candy to a kid. Glad I took it.@TheresNoLimit I would agree yes, that the bookies are still overestimating Fed-x these days, even on surfaces other than grass, where he hasn't been great for a couple of years now, and yes in a matchup with Murray, I would favour Murray, even on grass (and definitely on other surfaces as he just has too much power for the Swiss), however I would also be wary of piling into Murray, as despite winning his last tournament, he made hard work of opponents he should have been wiping off the court (but the same could also be said of Fed in fairness) Also I don't think the Olympic final last year should be taken as a measure of Murray being superior to Federer on grass as the Swiss was clearly f%cked tired after his marathon win over Del Potro in the semi, compared to Murray's cakewalk win over Djoko in the semi All in all though, yes, I would take Murray to beat Federer in the semi, should they both make it that far, and if Murray really gets into the groove and if Fed wilts, then Murray could even take it in three sets (of course all hypothetical I know, a lot of tennis to be played before that!) -
Re: Wimbledon 2013 fishy's bets are on a 'killing spree', so far. Amazing calls!
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Re: Wimbledon 2013 What were the odds. Btw, Fader :D
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Re: Fifa Under 20 World Cup Turkey 2013 Portugal - Korea I'm a portuguese, so one might suspect of me, but I rate Portugal as a big outsider, and can see them get to semi-finals at least, where they might go out against a much more mature team and with a tighter defensive line. But for now, they must be considered as definite backers. Their game against Nigeria wasn't that great, team looked quite awful in the back, and our best defender Tiago Ilori strangely started on the bench. However, our attack was doing massive damage, Bruma especially. The guy is going to be a star, you can just feel it. We also have other players who can help in destroying a defence, with creative midfielders Andre Gomes and Joao Mario, and still Toze and tempo-man Ca on the bench. Aladje is awful with his feet, but strong target man and good heading ability. For now, I think that our strong attack will overcome our weak defence. South Korea and Cuba look like easy targets, and getting to first place is crucial to avoid Spain - killing in the 1/8 or 1/4. My best bet for this game is Portugal @ 1.80 (bet365)
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Re: Wimbledon 2013 A tip is just a tip. You can follow it, discuss it, or ignore it. Personally, I rate Djokovic higher than Nadal. I rated Djokovic to win against Nadal 3-2 in that RG game, and it didn't happen by a fingernail. That point was really important, but I also recall two failed smashes. Incredible how players tend to miss sitters against Nadal. The draw was bad for Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, who may face themselves on the quarter - finals. And to be honest, I can see Nadal going out against Federer. Sure, Nadal is on top of his form, but Federer is still king of grass, and it is the only surface that he can beat Nadal, right now. Also, Federer may retire in 2/3(?) years, and so he will have 2 more years to win Wimbledon, because last year is only to say goodbye, so I'm not expecting that much in his last year. Federer has also said that for him, the season starts now, which means he is fully motivated to win. He wasn't that lucky with his draw, though, he will have to be on top of his game, with big server Hanescu on the 1st round, possibly Lukas Rosol in 3rd, and Hewitt/Wawrinka on 4th if no surprises. But I can't see him slip a set until 4th round. I really like Federer's odds to win this at 9. Will possibly take a unit of it, but I will only make a definite bet on the 2nd week. Very good value. I still think this year is Djoko's year, the draw screams it. But no value there.
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Re: Confederations Cup 2013 I agree with the read on Brazil x Italy. Although, don't forget Pirlo, De Rossi and possibly Ballotelli will not play. Brasil will not have Paulinho as well. But I can still clearly predict an open match, with 2 or more goals.
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Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Uruguay are the safest bet for outsiders to win this competition. Same group as Spain, but will surely take the second spot against a Nigeria without their best players, and awful Tahiti. Once in the semis, anything can happen, and Uruguay has que individual and team quality to win against Spain, Brazil and Italy. I actually don't fancy the Italians. Team looks lacking physically and demotivated for this competition.
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Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Japan's main problem is the lack of quality of their defensive line. They have an amazing midfield, that can outclass or even against any midfield in the competition, IMO. But I still agree that their odd is quite high. I would even rate them above Mexico.
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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > 7-11 June Portugal - Russia Russia is leader with 12 points, and this is even more incredible taking in count they have less 2 games than Portugal, which is second-placed with 10. Even if they lose tomorrow, qualification by first place will be assured in the next matches. Portugal completely needs to win tomorrow, so that a play-off is a reality. Afterwards, there is still an important match against Northern Ireland, in Belfast, and against Israel, in Portugal. There can be no mistakes from now on, and when there is a complete need of "no mistakes", usually Portugal delivers. Withstanding pressure is one of the best qualities of the Portuguese National Team. Prime examples are qualification for WC 2010 and Euro 2012 by play-off. Can't see Portugal wasting this chance. Russia will possibly come as wasted as Portugal, but less motivated and with the feeling that even losing this one, first place will no go away unless the impossible happens. Coach Paulo Bento and players have already acknowledged the importance of this match, and requested a full stadium and embraced all the pressure with ambition. Ronaldo and Coentrão are 100% fit for the match, according to the press and Paulo Bento. Therefore, our best squad is expected. Odds are looking good for Portugal, 1.80. Portugal @ 1.80
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Re: La Liga > Sun 26th May vicsuna, Real Sociedad really need to win this one, expecting that Valencia won't fail against Granada. Carlos Vela won't play, Ilarramendi is a doubt. Madrid have Ramos, Xabi, Coentrão and Varane with injuries. Pepe won't play, so Carvalho and Albiol, speed deficitary players, will be on the eleven against the quick counter - attacking Sociedad. Real Madrid have nothing to play for. I can really see Real Madrid not playing the sh*t today. And Mourinho might even rotate A LOT. Sociedad also has a good record at home against top teams. Let's not forget that they won against Barcelona 3-2, Valencia 4-2 Malaga, 4-0 Rayo...only drew against Betis 3-3 and lost to Atletico Madrid 0-1, and Atletico's was at the start of the season, where the team still wasn't playing that much. For me, Overs and Real Sociedad are quite okay, and I'm considering them.
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Re: Europa League Final > Chelsea v Benfica > 15th May kevshat, I actually feel that some trends around sportsbooks are quite strange. For example, Betfair has the unders on 1.75 right now, and they should be something like 1.95. Both teams like to attack, attack well and regularly score. Benfica didn't score this season in 3/4 official matches, the most. Both games with Barcelona and Fener away were the only ones I can remember. They attack quite well from the center-right, with one-twos between Gaitan, Salvio and Cardozo dictating the flow. Gaitan, Cardozo and Lima have powerful shots, and can long range quite efficiently. Benfica's long throws are also very dangerous. They scored the third goal against Fener from one, and their goal in Porto's last saturday was from a throw-in near the corner flag. As for key players, Artur (GK) is delivering great exhibitions in EL, and Chelsea might have to creat some chances until breaking the deadlock. Matic (CM), ex - Chelsea is the best player on the portuguese championship right now, but I think it will have difficulties to stop Chelsea's midfield and eventually will show fatigue. Cardozo and Lima (Strikers) are very dangerous, and can score goals with half of an opportunity. Chelsea has enough offensive power to bypass Benfica's defensive line, which depends too much on offside trap (Torres usually knows how to counter it) and Garay covering ability. LB will surely be Melgarejo due to Maxi Pereira absence on the right - back (Andre Almeida will play as a RB due to this, but has been playing for LB in tight matches). Melgarejo is a very exploitable weak point. Also, some crucial players were on conditioned training this Tuesday and didn't train with the main team: Matic, Enzo Perez (both CM) and Salvio (Right-Winger), as they are fatigued physically. But they will surely be in the starting eleven The whole team is tired mentally due to excessives matches this season and last game against FC Porto. Coach says they are alright, although I seriously doubt it. They might not handle excessive pressure during the game, and legs might 'break' in the last 15 minutes of each half, like it happened against Fenerbahce, Estoril and FC Porto. That is the most info I can give about Benfica strengths and weaknesses, from a neutral point of view (I'm from Sporting Portugal). I'm not saying that Benfica will not win this. Maybe all that I said before is bollocks, will not show itself during the match (although I highly doubt it) and after all, this is an Europa League Final. They have a great chance, IMO. I give them 35-40%. If they were ok and won/drew against FC Porto, I would give them 45%. My bets for this are BTTS, but I also have a small stake on Chelsea for Winner 12/13.
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Re: Europa League Final > Chelsea v Benfica > 15th May I should say some things... Yesterday, Benfica lost the first place to FC Porto and lost their chance to fight for the championship. It's still possible, but FC Porto surely will take it in the last day. So, Benfica has taken a big blow physically and mentally before this match, as they lost the chance to do an historic treble at the buzzer. The championship is gone, so Benfica have a chance for two cups. The first one is Europa League, and obviously is the most important one. Next there is the Portuguese Cup but it nothing compared to Europa League. Benfica's team look really bad physically since the first match against Fenerbahce. Only managed to qualify to the final after a heroic physical effort from all the players. Next match, they looked absolutely horrid in physical terms (draw 1-1 at home against Estoril). Against FC Porto, team looked in really bad shape physically, especially in the last 15 minutes of each half. The 2-1 for FC Porto was in the last minutes, and tells a lot about how Benfica might be looking mentally and physically. They are devasted. Still, this is Europa League final, and they are a very talented side, full of talented south americans but I can't see Benfica hanging on for more than 60/75 minutes. Also, if this goes to ET, I don't believe that Benfica will stay fit enough to hang on until penalty shootout. I am expecting to see a very strong Benfica in the first 30 minutes of the first half and the first 15 minutes of the second half.
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Re: Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund > Tue 30th April This game screams goals all over it, that's for sure..
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Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 Great tip mate, already went in Over 2.5 and also BTTS.
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Re: Serie A > 27th - 29th April You should be checking the draw odds in Atalanta x Bologna, as well as the liquidity if you're into Betfair... weird stuff heh?
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Re: FC Bayern München v FC Barcelona > Tue 23rd April Just a warning. Barça have a fantastic home record, but you should also check out Bayern's away record. Discarding the game against BATE. For the German League, specially. No losses, one draw, and the rest is just wins. 2 goals conceded. Amazing! I'm betting Bayern to go to the final. But tomorrow, I'm willing to believe that Bayern will win by 1 goal. Is Messi playing?
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Re: Málaga v Borussia Dortmund > Wed 3rd April Dortmund will win.
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Re: Paris Saint-Germain v FC Barcelona > Tue 2nd April Really unlucky call, the under was clicking until injury time.
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Re: Paris Saint-Germain v FC Barcelona > Tue 2nd April Just in case, might be handy: PSG: Sirigu; Jallet, Alex, Silva, Maxwell; BECKHAM, Matuidi; Lucas, Pastore; Ibrahimovic, Lavezzi. Barcelona: Valdés, Alves, Mascherano, Piqué, Alba; Sergio, Iniesta, Xavi; Villa, Messi y Alexis. I think Beckham there is a very smart move from Ancelotti. This means that Ancelotti will employ a direct play, forcing Beckham to deliver long passing to the big four up-front. A smart move to bypass the first line of pressure by Barcelona. This also means that PSG will give the control of the ball to Barcelona. I am expecting something like 30/70 35/65 in terms of possession. And I agree with Derek as well. This can be a very different game from what the majority would expect. I really believe that Unders 2.5 and Unders 3.5 is a very valuable bet. PSG are quite strong defensively, at home. Since 1st January, PSG played more than 10 games at home, and never conceded more than 1 goal per game. Barcelona are in inconsistent form in away games since January, and still have the shocker in Milan quite fresh in their mind, so they won't take many risks and expect to grab a 0-1, 1-1 to finish it at Camp Nou. Another good bet is BTTS, but I would close the bet (on Betfair) if PSG scores first.
Wimbledon 2013
in Tennis Betting
Posted
Re: Wimbledon 2013 Just a heads-up, Kvitova - Shvedova tomorrow has a great price for Over 2.5 Sets @ Bet365...2.37 currently. Shvedova is a very tricky player, and can easily take a set from Kvitova. One should remember her last year, when she pushed Serena to her limits in the 4th round, so she also has the need to grab her WTA points to maintain her position in the ranking. She defeated Kiki Bertens 64 63 in Wimbledon's first round, taking off her shoulders worries about her injury. Kvitova isn't anywhere near the form that led her to win 2011 Wimbledon's. Also having difficulties to win comfortably, and Coco Vandeweghe was on the edge of defeating her on the first round, producing a 3-setter. Of Kvitova's last 10 games, only 3 of them weren't in three sets. And one of them went into a tight tie-break against Hampton, could have easily been another 3-set match. Their only H2H match (1-0 Kvitova) is a 3-setter match, another reason to bet on this one. I expect Kvitova to overcome this one in a tight 3-setter, so, a 50% confidence punt at Over 2.5 Sets here at 2.37 (Bet365) and a 25% confidence punt at Kvitova 2-1 at 3.50 (Bet365)