JuMeSyn
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 finally. 1-1 on 47'.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Best odds now 2.33 on Unibet. bet365 have cut their price to 2.20. That was a serious mistake there, I think..
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 But if you look home and away form, 3 ouf ot 5 for Estoril and 5 out of 5 for Moreirense! But in the end, it is still just stats. I don't usually recall them as pure decision makers but as support. I also usually acknowledge home and away form and team playing style much more that home+away form and stats. I do think that 2.50 is just too much for it, big value. I would price it well below, maybe 2.00...I'm risking a 50% chance for me against a 40% for the bookies, so there is value for me! Also, an early could be good for corners. Both teams, especially Estoril (if Moreirense score first), fancy corners.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Estoril Praia x Moreirense BTTS @ 2.5 (bet365) for a 0.75 stake Big odds for big chances. I actually started to think if the match is fixed when I look at that 2.50, but I just can't refuse it! I have to stake it! Estoril Praia are a very attacking side that sometimes completely disrupts midfield and defense for the sake of scoring goals. They have big talent upfront, with the likes of striker Kleber and creative players Sebá and Kuca. However, Kuca is a big miss for Estoril as he will play for Cape Verde in the African Cup of Nations. Babanco (sub midfielder) and Balboa (sub attacker) are also on African Cup of Nations btw. But even without him, I think Estoril Praia have enough to score at least once. They also have a very strong and creative midfield and have crucial players for set pieces (Emidio Rafael and Toze). And stats don't lie as well: Estoril has always scored at home at least once. Even in Europa League matches against tough opposition such as Dinamo Moscow or PSV Eindhoven! Moreirense are a very well organized side, who prefers to sit deep and efficiently counter attack. While they look like your boring average Primeira Liga side, no they are not. They are a very good side to watch, a very intelligent team in-play and they usually know how to score at least once anywhere they play. Away from home, they just could not score against Académica (0-0) and FC Porto (3-0), but they scored, for example, against tough opposition (1-1 Sporting, 3-1 and 4-1 Benfica). They are also extremely good in set pieces. I do think we could be on for a serious mistake from the bookies. Or a mistake from me :) but I'm willing to stake it!
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 -0.75 Nacional x Sporting Over 2.5 @ 2.05 (bet365) for a 0.6 stake Nacional x Sporting Over 2.5 and BTTS @ 2.40 (bet365) for a 0.4 stake Nacional play at home, usually have a very good home factor (match is played above 1.000 meters...) and strong attack with in-form Marco Matias, Suk and Rondon. Midfielder Gomaa is the team talisman and will be back after an injury. Manuel Machado (Nacional manager) already told that he wants to play the match and win it. Nacional took that approach against Benfica and played wide open and could have drawn that one (lost 1-2) as the referee did a wrong call which would give Nacional the draw. Sporting Lisbon is going through a bad phase. After a very bad draw against Moreirense at home (1-1), which they deserved to lose after such a bad exhibition, they were almost eliminated of the Taça de Portugal against a third division team (won 3-2 against Vizela). They president has been attacking the manager and the team for the bad exhibitions and results, the whole club looks like a burning house. And speaking as a fan, the manager and the players could hardly be excused for some things, but it is not their fault. And the president is not helping in creating a better atmosphere for players to recover the lost ground (currently 10 points behind first place). Team looks lacking quality at the back, with only Rui Patricio and Paulo Oliveira being good enough. Midfield not working with 2 midfielders out of form, some players with bad attitude in-game (Adrien, Cedric). However, other players are really playing well at the moment, especially left-back Jefferson and attackers Carrillo and Montero. Both teams have very fragile defensive lines and good attacks, especially Sporting. I'm expecting goals on this one, as Sporting know how to create opportunities in open matches and Nacional is a not a team of sitting deep and defend efficiently. But Nacional also know how to counter and Sporting have some bad players in the back... Moreirense -1 AH @ 2.33 (Unibet) for a 0.75 stake Moreirense -1.5 AH @ 3 (bet365) for a 0.25 stake The point being is that Moreirense are a much better team than Boavista. Surely Boavista won their last away match but it was against Vitória Setubal, the most out of form team of the Primeira Liga at the moment. Vitória Setubal are just horrid. Now, when Boavista faces against team that have better players and stronger team processes, they just can't cope, especially when playing away. Individual quality of the squad is just below what is needed to survive in Primeira Liga except 3 or 4 players. The team is very will-spirited and has a get stuck in approach, but that usually also leads to yellow and red cards, especially away. Also, when Boavista plays at home, they play on a synthetic turf. But away, all teams have a natural turf. This is a serious factor, and explains the difference of results of Boavista when playing at home (9 points) and away (only 4 points and Taça de Portugal elimination). Moreirense just held big team Sporting CP at their home turf (1-1) and they could have won it, and deserved to win it. They are very well organized, strong defensive organization and effective upfront. They will be lacking goalscorer Ramon Cardozo (out for suspension) but I expect Alex Gonçalves to step up and prove that he can be an option. Moreover, team processes are very good and I expect it to come out on top eventually. When facing teams of the same quality as Moreirense away, Boavista lost 1-3 to Belenenses and 0-4 to Maritimo. I think this one will be closer as Moreirense are not as good in attack as those teams, but they are good enough to win 2-0, or maybe even 3-0. -1 AH and -1.5 AH are currently at some good odds and I'm taking them while I can. Strangely, they have been drifting since morning!
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Over 2.5 @ 2.20 (Ladbrokes/BF Sportsbook) in Estoril - Vitória Guimarães for a 0.75 stake Both teams will be willing to win this one. Estoril are gaining momentum and have a very strong attacking phase. Kuca, Kleber and Sebá are just a joy tto watch when they are at their best. This Estoril is very leaky at the back as The manager José Couceiro enjoys attacking football and does not worry that much with defensive processes, but they really attack well. They held Benfica to a tight win at their home soil (2-3) and FC Porto almost lost there, avoiding the loss in a last-minute goal (2-2). Estoril have Anderson Esiti out. He is one of the most important players of the team. Without him, they concede more goals. He will surely be missed and Estoril will have some defensive problems today. Anderson Luis (starter right-back) also out. Vitória Guimarães are third place and although they have the merit in being there due to being a very well organized and will-spirited team, they seems to lack squad depth and some strength in the back four. They will ventually collapse and get below the top-3. But still, they should not be underestimated. They are without some important players (Defendi, Saré, Alvez) but they have two great attacking players in Hernani and Bernard, a very solid central midfielder (Andre Andre) and two good attacking wing-backs. They will up for it in attack. Attacking set pieces are also a strength of Vitória. I recall this one will be a very open match, full of goal scoring chances and Estoril might have the edge in just winning it at the end. Although, Vitória Guimarães are a very will-spirited team and might just hold a draw or a very tight win, so I'm avoiding match odds and going for the goals.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 how the hell did Braga not concede. -0.8
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Belenenses - Sp Braga BTTS: Yes @ 2.15 (Betfair Sportsbook) for a 0.8 stake Belenenses is above expectations, with 21 points on 6th place. They come from an expected loss at Benfica's home turf by 0-3, and their best two players Miguel Rosa and Deyverson did not play. Tomorrow they will. Plus, the team is very well organized, knows how to sit deep and defend, but also knows how to exploit the weaknesses of the other team in attack. Braga has managed to do some impressive stuff this season. They won against Vitoria Guimarães (currently 3rd placed) 2-1 at their home turf for the Taça de Portugal, and were the only ones to win against SL Benfica, current champions for the championship (2-1). They are a bit hit and miss, but they are much more regular now than they were at the start of the team. They are a very emotional and spirited team. Their attack, on a good day, can outclass defenders, just as they did a while ago against Penafiel (6-1). Both teams are doing a good season and this match is very important to both, as it wil define with is the team with the upper hand to fight for the Europa League qualification. Although there is a lot of matches until the end of the season, both managers have admitted that this match is very important so I'm expecting the best from each to come out. Belenenses look great in all aspects and play at home but their individual quality is below Braga. On the other hand, Braga's defense is very leaky on the away form, they have the left-back injured and a left-back without any competitive physical fitness will play. Both their central defenders are not that great as well. I'm expecting Braga to come forward for this one as they will want to win it and they have the firepower upfront to do it, with the likes of Pardo, Alan, Rafa and Eder. I do think this will be a great match, between two in-forms teams, so a BTTS @ 2.15 looks like a very good bet for me.
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Re: Chelsea v Hull City > Saturday December 13th I honestly think, without doing a big preview, that Chelsea will want to clear the handicap. They will want to prove that they are the best team on the BPL and I'm pretty sure they will performing a convincing win. They have trouble in clearing the -2.5 AH though, so I could just go to the -2, or -2.25 AH...
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Re: Chelsea v Sporting CP > Wednesday December 10th I'm not betting on anything due to my last losing bet, and as I am a Sporting CP fan. But I am fairly confident. Chelsea have a great team even without Hazard, Willian and Terry, but I do think players will not be 100% focused on this match. On the other hand, Sporting will be 120% dedicated to this match, as they could make history and, IMO, they should already be qualified. Bad luck in the last minute against Maribor and were robbed against Schalke 04 on Germany, where a scandalous penalty decision got Schalke to win 4-3. Sporting have an awful defensive line, except Rui Patricio and Paulo Oliveira, the rest is below average. Chelsea are great on breakaways and Sporting leaves too much space as defensive line is very high usually. Sporting are also without Jefferson (left-back that does a lot of assists) and Nani (key player, of course). But the frontline is still strong enough, Carrillo and Mané are two great wingers on good form, while Slimani has the finishing touch and is decisive in important match. I am pretty sure we will see a very strong Sporting today. I would say Over 2.5 hides good value, but I'm not going on anything. I just hopes that Sporting wins or draws this one.
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Re: Benfica v Bayer 04 Leverkusen > Tuesday December 9th What a disgusting match. -1.00 awful attitude from Bayer Leverkusen.
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Re: Benfica v Bayer 04 Leverkusen > Tuesday December 9th Bayer Leverkusen Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.38 (Coral/William Hill) for a 1.0 stake Get in while you can because this will surely shorten A LOT. Bayer Leverkusen are first placed and qualified, but first place is still not a certainty. They need to win against Benfica or draw and hope Zenit draws as they have a tie-breaker advantage against them. Schmidt has said that the team will take this game very seriously and I expect them to pull a strong team to win tomorrow. But why will this shorten? Just look at the Benfica call-up and you will understand. But long story short: Benfica are without a lot of starters for tomorrow as manager Jorge Jesus wants to give a chance to bench players and next league match is against FC Porto away, a very important match to decide the first place. Julio Cesar (main GK), Maxi Pereira (main RB), Enzo Perez (main CM and team most important player), Gaitan (main LM and team dynamo), Salvio (main LM)...moreover Samaris (DM) and Luisão (main CB) are also suspended...Eliseu (main LB) still injured...Benfica will play with a max of 2 starters, which are Jardel and Lima. The rest is just bench or youngsters. My guess is that Jorge Jesus really does not care for tomorrow. You can say that the players will still be motivated enough as financial prize and the fact of playing in the Champions League is good enough. Well, yeah, but most of the bench options of Benfica will surely struggle tomorrow against a very good Bayer 04 Leverkusen team which is, IMO, the strongest team of the group. In the first match against Benfica, they did a fantastic show (won 3-1, could have been 5-0, 6-0...) and with Benfica fielding their best team. Imagine now? Benfica is an offensive team and might just pull of enough for Bayer 04 Leverkusen not to win it, but their chance of scoring 2 goals or more is very big. I usually don't make such big calls and strong stake placement, but this is one of them. Big odds, big value.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 I'm sorry that I didn't come here in time, but yes, that would be the case. Second tie-break rule is goals scored.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 thanks!! I'll be sure to share my thoughts if I have the time. The much I watched the Vortis - G-Osaka, the more I knew that it would end 0-0. It had to be decided on the other match, where Urawa collapsed under pressure once again. Kashiwa match was postponed due to snow btw.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 I don't have time to do elaborate picks, but want to share my thoughts here about some matches of the final matchday. Gamba Osaka will be playing away against Tokushima Vortis, last placed and worst team of the J-League. If they win, they are champions, no matter what, unless Urawa wins against Nagoya by 10-0 or something. IMO, Gamba Osaka will definitely win this match but things can turn out to be a nervous 1-2, 0-2, or end up with one or two early goals that will drive the team forward for a 5-0, 6-0 humping. I'm doing a NO BET here. No values on current odds, but Gamba Osaka will not slip at all. Urawa Reds will be playing Nagoya Grampus at home. Urawa Reds had the title in their hands and let it slip in a dramatic fashion, after being up in the table by 5 points! Now they have to hope that Gamba Osaka slips against the worst team of the J-League. Their motivation should on a the low, and I don't think the players are hopeful that the title is still possible. Players have to be feeling the bad momentum here, and I expect them to turn out tomorrow in a very nervous match and could make a lot of mistakes. That could be unfortunate, because Nagoya Grampus is a very, very dangerous team on the counter with quick forwards Nagai and Kawamata. I do think Urawa will not be up for the challenge and Nagoya have a good chance to surprise. I think Nagoya Grampus or Draw is a good bet @ 2.63 (bet365) 30% confidence. Kashiwa Reysol are 4th place and will play away against Niigata. They are with 8 consecutive wins and need a win to secure the 4th spot, which will give ACL qualification if Gamba Osaka wins against Montedio Yamagata next saturday in the Emperor's Cup final. Also, it is the last match of Nelsinho as Kashiwa manager, and has left an amazing legacy. Players will be up for it, will want the 4th spot and will want to honour their manager. I'm expecting Kashiwa to win and odds have been shortening a bit. 2.1 at the moment, could be a good value still. 35% confidence.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 When you meant big I though about the -3.5, -4 and Over 3.5 TG :p with that I agree. I think the -1.5 should a good value bet but one must take it as soon as markets open. I predict Gamba to open at 1.20, maybe 1.25ish. But that will surely drop to 1.14 before KO.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 2 greens and 1 void. :) Simeon I wouldn't trust on that. I can see Gamba trying to score 2-0, 3-0 early and then relax because the championship is theirs.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Bets for tomorrow are VERY risky, so take them with a pinch of salt: Kashiwa Reysol + Over 2.5 @ 2.75 (bet365) for a 0.35 stake Over 3.5 @ 3.00 (William Hill) for a 0.35 stake Kashiwa Reysol are the red hot form team of the J-League. 5 consecutive wins have brought them to the top-6 of the league after a disastrous season, especially away from home. But at home, they are the best team of the J-League, with 10 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss. This will also be Nelsinho's last home match as the Kashiwa Reysol manager. During his stay for 5 years, he promoted the team to J-League 1 and won every single possible title in Japan once. Incredible work! Only absence of Kashiwa Reysol is Kenta Kano, which is not a crucial player. Whole team is available and the best XI will play as the ACL qualification hopes are still alive. Shimizu S-Pulse are still not safe from relegation, even though they are 3 points above the relegation zone. Tomorrow, their best defender Dakovic will not play and Jong-a-Pin and Bueno, other two defenders, are not 100% fit. This could be troublesome for Shimizu. With Dakovic and Jong-a-Pin, they concede a lot, now imagine without them. However, they are very strong of front with Novakovic and Omae. Goals are always a plenty with them at front for most of the time. Teams in the relegation dogfight usually overperform during these moments, but Kashiwa Reysol are such a big force at home and still have the ACL qualification hopes alive. They will also want to honour Nelsinho with a "last" win and they totally have it takes to do. They are very stable in defense at home and have the brazilians Leandro Montera and Dudu on big form upfront. While Shimizu have the chance to score and actually have to score because of the relegation dogfight, their defense is not good enough to stop Kashiwa. I expect a match with a lot of goals, where Kashiwa Reysol will eventually grab the 3 points for being the much better team overall. Kashima Antlers + Over 2.5 @ 3.10 (bet365) for a 0.35 stake Kashima Antlers will be playing against Cerezo Osaka in the Cerezo Osaka stadium. This match will be very important for both teams. For Cerezo Osaka, a loss implies the relegation for J-League 2. This season was a disaster for the Cerezo Osaka side! After a successful season with a 4th place acquired in the last match (which gave them direct ACL qualification), now they are on the edge of a shock relegation. 4 managers, big investments (Cacau and Forlan), and now they just can't cope. Kashima Antlers are with 57 points on 3th place. They are on a ACL qualification spot and title is still possible, even though they don't depend on themselves. They are on a good row of results (3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last 5 matches) and they are without their best striker, which is injured (Davi). But that has not stopped them for scoring and winning matches. Kashima are very well organized by coach Toninho Cerezo. Very strong on the counter, especially, but also know how to play possession football and dominate. Kashima Antlers are the much better team, and even though this is the last chance for Cerezo, they always seem to choke against well organized teams that are fit and strong mentally. Cerezo Osaka, just as in the match against Vegalta Sendai, will take their risks and attack much more often because they have no choice. Kashima are lethal on the counter with Caio and Yasushi Endo, so they could definitely score a lot with the space Cerezo will give on here. Even though Cerezo could score one or two, Kashima Antlers will eventually prevail as the much stronger side here. They are fit, strong mentally, motivated to achieve the ACL qualification and maybe the J-League title. Sagan Tosu 0.0 @ 2.18 (Unibet) for a 0.55 stake Sagan Tosu x Urawa Reds is one of the crucial matches of the matchday. Urawa Reds are top of the league with 61 points, 2 points above Gamba Osaka and could be crowned champions if they win and Gamba Osaka slips in their home clash against tricky Vissel Kobe...but if Urawa draws or loses and Gamba Osaka wins, Gamba Osaka grabs the top spot. Urawa Reds are on the edge of another calamity. After losing the 2007 championship on the last round against last placed Yokohama and after missing the ACL qualification last season with a row of horribl results in the end of season, they are about to waste a 8-point advantage against second placed teams. They are just choking at the moment, players look unstable and full on pressure on their shoulders and manager looks clueless. Last match they could win the J-League 2014 if they were able to win against Gamba Osaka at home, but they managed to slip the draw (which was not a bad result at all!) in the last 5 minutes. The 5-point advantage was cut to 2-point and now, all the pressure is on them. Shinzo Koroki has recovered some fitness but will possibly not start on the XI. Surely he will play his role on the second half though. Sagan Tosu are without nothing to lose. With 56 points, ACL qualification is still possible, even title is still possible! That would be a big achievement for such a small team. They are not the most spectacular team of the J-League, but are very stable at the back, know how to counter and to take their chances, and use set pieces to unlock the results. Also, Toyoda is always a very good striker which can decide matches! This will be a match that will be ruled by the mentality of the players. Those who are the stronger mentally, will have the edge. And well, you have to say that after that horrible slip against Gamba, Urawa are nowhere near of being strong mentally. While Sagan Tosu, tough and hard to crack at home, have nothing to lose. Actually, Sagan Tosu have a bid H2H edge against Urawa! They won in Saitama Stadium on March by 1-0 against Urawa, while in the past two seasons Urawa were unable to win in Tosu's stadium (losses 1-4 and 1-3). Always a hard stadium for Urawa Reds, and tomorrow will be even worse. And if the final minutes arrive and things are still to be decided, Urawa Reds will collapse mentally. Players will be haunted by previous historical ghosts and by the last match slip against Gamba, while Sagan Tosu are very stable mentally (usually grab a couple of late winners) and have nothing to lose at the moment. I give the advantage and momentum to Tosu, and I feel they are at good odds to snatch the win. To cover the draw, I'm going for Sagan Tosu 0.0 @ 2.18.
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Re: Zenit Saint-Petersburg v Benfica > Wednesday November 26th This one is very tough for me to call. I'm doing a NO BET here, but if I would bet on something, it would be Zenit @ 2.1 or Zenit Over 1.5 TG @ 2.05. Honestly, Zenit were not that bad against Bayer Leverkusen. Bayer Leverkusen just were much better organized and when they had their definite chances, they did not miss them. But defensively, they are hard to crack when they are in mood. Garay really makes the whole defensive line, just as he did in Benfica. World class defender. Then there is another factor: André Villas Boas, who has an excellent record against Jorge Jesus teams. His playing style collides perfectly with Jorge Jesus ideas. First match of the group saw that, in a very good Zenit exhibition that could be up 0-4 or 0-5 by first half in Benfica's match. Careful with Hulk as well. While at FC Porto and Zenit, he always shows up well against Benfica. Benfica can be upfront in the league, but that are playing, excuse me for saying this: sh*t. They have been very lucky and referees have been helping them out a lot. There's a big debate here in Portugal about corruption in referees because of that. Decisions have been very one-sided for them one-sided against direct opponents (FC Porto and Sporting). And they are still with trouble winning difficult matches. In all the difficult matches of the season (against stronger team), Benfica lost or drew almost every single one of them except the last one against Monaco, which they won 1-0 without deserving it. Benfica has the main XI available except Eliseu on the left. André Almeida will play there and that is their weaker link. And Hulk will be against him...as Jorge Jesus wants to win this, his main XI will probably be: Julio Cesar; Andre Almeida, Luisão, Jardel, Maxi Pereira; Enzo Perez, Samaris, Salvio, Gaitan, Lima, Talisca. Benfica also does not do well in Russia. Loss there with Zenit and Spartak in the Jorge Jesus era. Usually very long distances travelled are not good for Jorge Jesus teams. In 2010/2011, they managed to be humiliated 0-3 in Israel. I know this match is do or die for them, but honestly, I can't see Benfica getting something out of here. Actually, if Zenit shows up like they did in the first match, they could be on for a 3-0. But I do think Zenit will feel a bit of a pressure and keep themselves tight in the back and be patient. That's why I'm expecting a low-scoring affair (max could be 2-1), but Zenit are much better than Benfica at the moment, and have the home factor.
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Re: FC BATE Borisov v FC Porto > Tuesday November 25th There you go. 0-3 bet won!! :)
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Re: FC BATE Borisov v FC Porto > Tuesday November 25th Stadium looks great. Bound to be great for my bet :) although that Marcano defender is awful. Might leave Porto exposed in the back.
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Re: FC BATE Borisov v FC Porto > Tuesday November 25th I've seen games with snow ending up on Overs. Still careful with that, but I will be lowering my confidence a bit. I would NEVER go on Under 1.5, never. FC Porto is still the much better team and even though they are, BATE will also want to score to have hopes. This will go Over 1.5 I think.
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Re: FC BATE Borisov v FC Porto > Tuesday November 25th Doesn't a team want to be first in their group? Imagine if Shakthar slips to Athletic. If Porto wins, the first place is theirs. The fact that BATE will be motivated is the only reason why I won't go on the handicaps. But goals? Yeah, FC Porto has a big chance of scoring 3, at least in my opinion.
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Re: FC BATE Borisov v FC Porto > Tuesday November 25th FC Porto Over 2.5 TG @ 3.60 (SportingBet) for a 0.45 stake How on earth do we have these odds at the moment? Why did the bookies not cut the prices after the humpings of FC Porto (6-0) and Shakthar (7-0 and 5-0) against BATE? Should they be doing it? BATE Borisov did manage to win against Athletic at home (2-1). But Athletic are still a better team than BATE, and the Basques were in the worst form of the season, I am sure. When faced against terrific opposition with a great volume of offensive play, they just crumble. Their team is not good enough and I expect the same tomorrow against FC Porto. They will have a lot of trouble handling Brahimi and Jackson Martinez, two world-class players. BATE Borisov are also without Kakush and Filipenko, which are actually their best two defenders, and that says a lot. FC Porto did not play for Taça de Portugal, so they are very fresh physically. They are first place of the group and will want to win this in order to stay in the first place. And if they win and Shakthar slips, they will secure the first spot. And Julen Lopetegui, the master of squad rotation, will be willing to have that chance...so I don't expect that much rotation tomorrow (call-up list reveals that no rotation will happen in defense and attack). FC Porto are without any suspended, injured and doubtful players. Squad is full strength. FC Porto are much stronger than BATE, will be very motivated, and while I don't expect a 5-0, 6-0 or 7-0, I do think FC Porto scoring 3 goals is very possible.
Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15
in Portugal Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Rio Ave x Maritimo Over 2.5 @ 2.38 (Coral) for a 0.55 stake Rio Ave + Over 2.5 @ 3.75 (bet365) for a 0.15 stake Magnificent odds. Overs/unders should be switched, and Under 2.5 should be 2.38, IMO. Both teams have attacking attitude and so-so defenses. However, both are missing crucial players. Rio Ave has almost no central defenders for this one, as Marcelo, André Villas Boas and Roderick are injured. The only one available is Prince Boateng, and even that one is on bad physical shape...Nelson Monte (U19) was called to play next to him. Main left-back (Tiago Pinto) is also missing. Their defensive processes are not the best as well so they could be on for some trouble. But upfront, they know how to score. They come from 2 0-0s at home for the championship, but that won't happen again. Maritimo is a much different team than Belenenses and Gil Vicente, which know how to sit back and defend, just like they did against Rio Ave. And when Gil Vicente could not sit back and defend, they were destroyed by Rio Ave (5-2 last Wednesday, Cup QF) Maritimo will not have defensive midfielder and most important player of the team Danilo Pereira available. He's out for suspension, and gives a lot of stability in the back. Main GK is also out due to injury and starter Dyego Sousa cannot play as well. Main central defender Gege is out on the African Cup of Nations. Defensive processes are the worst ever, and Maritimo actually has the 2nd worst away defensive record of the league (only surpassed by Vitória Setubal). They lack consistency and quality at the back. But they are very strong upfront if players are willing to. Maazou is a bit moody but unstoppable on his days. Midfield is also strong going forward with Alex Soares and Fransergio. In conclusion, two offensive and agressive teams going forward with very important absences in the back, especially, and that should be for some defensive mistakes and goal opportunities. Odds look good, and I always give a small advantage to Rio Ave. They are very strong at home and Maritimo just can't cope away from home (3 points in 19 possible points). They could only win against Gil Vicente, last placed...