JuMeSyn
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Posts posted by JuMeSyn
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Re: Arsenal v AS Monaco > Wednesday February 25th Arsenal + Under 2.5 would be the bet for me. Arsenal looking good in attack and will surely dominate the whole match against Monaco. I know Leonardo Jardim well. He was the manager of my club Sporting Portugal last season. Honestly, I'm pretty sure he is coming to the Emirates to score 1 goal but Arsenal isn't Benfica, Bayer Leverkusen or Zenit: it is a much better team. But when it comes to defending, Leonardo Jardim is world class (I mean it) organizing a deep defensive line. Players from Monaco will also give 150% for this match, as title is almost impossible atm. Arsenal will not have that many chances to score as it seems, IMO. However I would recommend low stakes. 0.3 units or so. This is not an official tip as well :p just a little thought.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 a small break from portuguese liga will do well :) -0.55.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Good win McNasara! Sporting x Gil Vicente BTTS @ 2.62 (Coral) for a 0.55 stake Massive odds atm, and I would price it 2.10/2.15. Sporting are going through one of the worst moments of the season. After the unlucky 1-1 draw against Benfica, Sporting were never the same. They played badly against Belenenses and didn't manage to overcome Wolfsburg away and to grab a good result to win it at home, even though it is still possible (0-2 loss). Team seems to be lacking emotionally and players are not making good decision at all. Nani and Carrillo are on bad form as well, and they are the most important players besides William and João Mário (which are actually playing well, but not enough). Main striker Slimani still injured and his physical presence and goalscoring instinct is very important for the team. Gil Vicente will show up without any additional pressure after their massive recovery in the standings table. They were last placed 6 matchday before, now they are 17 points and clear of the red zone for now. Their are not expected to win tomorrow and that is why they will play well. They are still not ok in the back, even though their 2 new CBs they got during the transfer windows really stabilized the defensive line, their manager isn't the best one, but offensively they have been scoring, and have scored at least once 5 times in the last 6 matches. Forward Simy is on fire as well, and Ruben Ribeiro was a great loan during the transfer windows as well. Sporting might also be a bit centered towards the thursday match against Wolfsburg at home, when they will face Wolfsburg and try to perform a "miracle" in doing a "remontada" against a very strong side. But it is possible, and players might be not so motivated for this one. Moreover, they should be weakened physically after the last thursday match. And emotionally, the team is still on a down note since that last minute goal from Benfica... I do think Gil Vicente will have the chances to score. Sporting will definitely score as well even if they are not playing well as Gil Vicente isn't the best team when it comes to defending. BTTS at 2.62 is terrific.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday February 19th Still a bit early maybe but I do think Wolfsburg x Sporting Lisbon Over 2.5 + BTTS @ 2.10 (bet365) are good odds and I think it could go down to 2.00 or maybe 1.90. Both teams are attacking friendly and are missing important players in midfield. I'm reading that Sporting odds to qualify are overestimated but I disagree, I think it is about right and bookies recognize their good offensive power. Since the start of the season, Sporting has played over 40 matches and has only failed to score in 1 of them (loss against Vitória Guimaraes away on November, 0-3). They usually know how to score at least once and I expect that tomorrow. I know Wolfsburg are seriously talented upfront, with the likes of De Bruyne and now Schurrle leading the pack. Dost is in great form and both wing-backs are very attacking (Rodriguez and Vieirinha). They also are very strong on set pieces, but aerial ability from the centre-back and main striker and excellent set piece takers (Rodriguez and Naldo). However Luiz Gustavo and Guilavogui are out for this match and Arnold on not as agressive as them. A lot of space will open up on the centre of the midfield and if Sporting knows how to explore that, Wolfsburg will have much more trouble than expected. Plus we never know if Wolfsburg is really motivated for this one. German teams are known to take Europa League lightly, which is not the case of Portuguese teams, that take it very seriously. Sporting Lisbon is a bit off form at the moment after 6 consecutive wins for the championship. An unlucky draw 1-1 against current champions Benfica took them out of the title race, and on saturday they drew 1-1 once again against Belenenses. Belenenses is one of those teams that know how to shut up shop, and Sporting has a lot of trouble in disrupting tight deffensive affairs. But when team do open play against Sporting, they are good on the counter and should key players Nani and Carrillo up for it, both wing-backs will have a lot of trouble. Vieirinha and Rodriguez leave a lot of space behind that can be exploited by them. However, Wolfsburg are very strong upfront and even though Sporting has a good GK (even though Rui Patricio is a bit out of form) and good centre-backs, their wing-backs are not strong defensively and William Carvalho, the in-form player of the team atm is out for this one and will be surely missed. He secures the defensive line, great tackling abilities and very strong on short/long passing as well. Rossell will play instead of him but not so good. Lacks a bit of agression and aerial ability. I expect Sporting to be well on attack but not so good on defense as the attacking power of Wolfsburg is too much for them to handle should the germans be motivated. Should the germans be motivated and play what the know, most possible results are 2-1 and 3-1. Should Sporting play as good as they know and germans not so motivated, 1-1 is the most obvious. I also think Sporting could be good odds to qualify but I would never back them at current odds. I would wait after the first match and should they get a "positive" result except draw or win (loss by 1/2 goals with a goal scored ex: 2-1, 3-1 scoreline), I would back them to qualify. They are not in their best form at the moment in the championship but now that they are off the title race, Europa League gains another importance and players should be up for it.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 wrong pick once again. -0.85, tight match.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Nacional Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.62 (Coral) for a 0.70 stake Over 3.5 @ 4.50 (BF Sportsbook) for a 0.15 stake Excellent odds for this one. Both teams are tied with 25 points in the middle of the standings, but on different forms atm. Nacional are an in-form team of the Primeira Liga. 5 consecutives matches without losing, 4 wins and 1 draw. The draw was the last match (3-3 Arouca away). Nacional are really playing well and scoring tons of goals since new players arrived in the transfer window, especially Tiago Rodrigues and Christian, two good midfielders. Upfront, Lucas João is now the main striker after 1 year on the bench, and he is on terrific form. Great youngster, expect big things from him. Also upfront Wagner has arrived, he is a very fast winger and could do damage to slow defenders. However, the starter should creative Marco Matias and in-form Rondon (hat-trick against Arouca). Nacional like to play on a counter-attacking approach, and they are excellent in doing it. First half of the season not so great due to the lack of quality players in midfield and Lucas João was not playing, but now, things are different. Counter-attacks are doing massive damage, and that happened against Arouca (2 goals were fast counters). Gottardi is injured for tomorrow. The other GK Rui Silva will play, and he is not one of the best IMO. Lacks handling and aerial ability. Moreover, Nacional is not the best team when it comes to individualities in the back, so they usually concede as well even though they have immense goalscoring ability at the moment. Estoril is doing a regular season. They should fight for the middle of the table until the end. They have good players upfront and they also know how to use them. However, they clearly lack organization behind, even though they have good centre-back such as Ruben Fernandes and Yohan. They usually concede too much goals, especially away. They have always conceded away, except on one match (0-0 Maritimo). Although they also know how to score, Kleber (main striker) is off and Kuca left in the transfer window, so they are much weaker upfront than they were in the first half of the season. Leo Bonatini is a good striker, but still not adapted to a new championship, as he arrived in the transfer window. They also have another absentees, but they are all bench players and the main starters will play. Nacional play at home, are in big form, players upfront are scoring, and I have to consider them as favourites for today. Good attack versus bad defense is a synonym of goals. Moreover, Estoril have a lot of trouble while in attack-defense transition, which is Nacional strong point. I can see Nacional scoring twice or even three times, but I'm going with Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.45 as the main bet. Even those odds are terrific! Would price them 2.00 to be honest, but the Overs are actually big as well. They should be much lower based on the attacking quality and lack of defensive ability of both teams. So small punt on Over 3.5 as well.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 -1.25. Running against the profits in the start of the February, hopefully I can bounce back.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Setúbal @ 2.1 (bet365) for a 0.7 stake Wrong odds from bookies here. Setúbal should be priced below evens according to their current form with new manager Bruno Ribeiro and against an Académica with a weak manager, with some important absences upfront (Ivanildo, Salli and Magique) and that does not know what a win is for the Championship since the start of October 2014. New manager Bruno Ribeiro took over the team 3 weeks ago and still hasn't lost. 3 wins and 2 draws in official competitions, and two of those wins were enough for Vitoria de Setubal get qualified for the League Cup semi-finals. With Bruno Ribeiro, the players have their confidence back and the important signing of Suk from Nacional da Madeira gave them the firepower they were lacking upfront. Team now embraces a 4-3-3 attacking formation with Suk upfront and well supported by offensive dynamos Andre Horta and Pelkas, which are in good form as well. On the other hand, Académica are just bad, really bad. Their manager is one of the weakest in Primeira Liga, their squad quality and depth is well below needed to survive in Primeira Liga, and they have not won for more than 3 months in Primeira Liga. How Paulo Sergio was not sacked is a mystery to me, as the team was expected to do a mid-table finish and currently sits in 16º place with 13 points, tied with 17º place team Penafiel, which is the first team in the relegation zone. In conclusion, a red hot form team that is playing at home against one of weakest sides of the Primeira Liga. I think Académica will do more of the same when they play away: shut up shop and play for the draw. But I expect Vitória de Setúbal to grab the win, because they are so much better individually, as a team and have a better manager. And that usually is enough to win. And I can get that win at odds above evens...I can't refuse.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Sporting - Benfica Sporting Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.60 (Unibet) for a 0.55 stake Always dangerous placing my bets on Sporting Portugal and it is my club and usually we have to try and be more neutral with our clubs and/or favourite clubs. However, I'm really willing to stake this one as I am quite confident for tomorrow. Odds opened up Wednesday with Benfica as a marginal favourite in every bookie. However, things are turned around currently, and Sporting is small favourite. Actually this is the first time in many years that Sporting plays against Benfica and is a favourite to win the match, and due to many reasons. First reason is Benfica important absences. Besides long term injury of Ruben Amorim (crucial midfielder), Julio Cesar (main GK) is also out, and Artur will play instead of him. Artur is not a very solid GK, and usually cannot cope in big pressure moments, which could be the case. Also, Nicolas Gaitan, main attacking dynamo of SL Benfica is doubtful for the match. Rumours indicate that he will not be in the starting line-up and could only play 30 minutes or so. He will be a big absence as Benfica depends a bit on him to create chances, even though they also have good players to his duty of creating chances as well (such as Jonas and Salvio). Benfica also seems to have a weakened midfield since the departure of Enzo and while Ruben Amorim is still injured. Although Samaris is getting better, Talisca has no tactical knowledge, while Pizzi and Cristante have talent but still need some time to grow. Second of all, Sporting has played more than 33 matches so far this season. They only did not get to score in two matches: Chelsea at home (0-1) and Vitoria Guimarães away (0-3). Other than that, Sporting have always scored at least once, even in Estádio da Luz against Benfica in third matchday. They have serious talent upfront, Nani and Carrillo and big team players, dynamic wingers and very strong one-on-one, João Mário is a very good midfielder than knows how to do some killer passes and has good long range, Slimani is a solid finisher in the air and Montero is an artist, very mobile and intelligent player, technically gifted that can decide one match on his own, if needed (also a bit inconsistent in performance though). Jefferson also the best left-back of the championship, his crossing abilities are among the best in Europe. That's why they almost always score: individually gifted players and work well as a team too. Team is well-built by talented manager Marco Silva. On the other hand, Benfica also usually know how to score in the Jorge Jesus era, so I would say they could score as well, and I do think they will actually score, but I do feel that may not happen and I can't see value on current BTTS best odds. And finally, third reason, the differences in big pressure matches of both teams. Sporting has always surpassed expectations so far in big matches. Even though they have problems against teams that shut up shop, especially in Estádio de Alvalade (Sporting CP home stadium), against teams that try to win it and are as good or stronger than Sporting, Sporting usually plays above the expected and never disappointed so far, this season. Played some terrific matches in Champions League (especially both matches against Schalke and the match at Stamford Bridge) and was quite unlucky not to go through, managed to beat FC Porto in Taça de Portugal away against all odds (3-1), managed to draw against Benfica away (1-1) and drew against FC Porto at home (1-1) in a match that if Sporting was finishing better, could have been 3-0 by the first half, managed to beat SC Braga away (1-0), a home turf that is usually very hard to play in and where Benfica lost (1-2). And on the other hand, Benfica has trouble in winning big pressure matches. Failed to cope in the Champions League (out it in the group phase) and only won at home against Monaco (1-0), and did not deserve too and won against FC Porto away (2-0) and a very lucky match, where FC Porto did not deserve to lose as they missed too many chances, although Benfica has merit in that performance as well. But they drew against Sporting in the third matchday (1-1), lost twice against SC Braga away for the championship (1-2) and at home for Taça de Portugal (1-2), lost twice against Zenit for the CL, lost and drew (1-3 away and 0-0 home) against Bayer Leverkusen and drew away against Monaco (0-0). They also lost 2 weeks ago against Paços de Ferreira in a match that if they won, they would build a 9 point advantage over FC Porto after FC Porto lost against Maritimo one day before...and they actually lost 0-1. They have serious trouble in a big pressure moments. And although they are first placed and even a loss would not disrupt their good chances of winning the championship, it would build additional pressure in maintaining the first place and building new momentum. As much as I think that Sporting has a good chance of winning this match, and I actually reckon there is value on best odds 2.6 currently (would price it 2.4 myself), and even though Benfica has 1 important absence and another important player that could not play and usually fail to cope against the pressure, they are still in first place on the championship, are very experienced and have a good manager and might just turn it on their favour. Also, Sporting Portugal defensive line, although on good form, lacks experience and leaves a bit of space behind for quick counters due to lack of speed of the central defenders. If Benfica can explore than weakness well, they could snatch something out of this, so a draw is definitely likely as well. But what I do like are Sporting goals. Their attacking unit will be up for it as they always were in big matches, and Nani and Carrillo could be a handful of problems for Maxi Pereira and especially for Eliseu. They have always scored at home unless against Chelsea FC, and Chelsea FC are in a galaxy of their own, and I expect that to happen tomorrow against Benfica that has a very weakened midfield since the departure of Enzo a second choice GK that usually fails in big pressure moments. I do feel certainty that Sporting will score at least once. Should they score twice? Hard to say, sometimes they also have some finishing issues in a match or another, but never in big matches and there is definitely value in current 2.6 best odds, and I would price them 2.18 myself.
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Re: Australian Open 2015 Stanislas Wawrinka 3-2 @ 13 (Sporting Bet) for a 0.20 stake Stanislas Wawrinka 3-1 @ 12 (Unibet) for a 0.15 stake All the value is on Wawrinka, and not hard to guess why. First of all, he is the current Australian Open champion. Last year, I could see it in his eyes, that he was hungry for it. This year, I can see it in his eyes again, and his current form also says that he has a big chance to grab the trophy again. His performance against Garcia-Lopez had some moments, but against "the" dark horse of this tournament, Kei Nishikori, which has been playing brilliant tennis for months now he performed outstanding tennis. Nishikori did not even play that bad, Stan was just another level. That left me pretty impressed. First serve looks tremendous when it hits, and his strokes are hitting so well, deep and powerful, just like last season. Stan really loves when the surface is slow enough to give him time to prepare the shot, and the courts in Melbourne are actually looking a bit slower each year. No wind as well tomorrow it seems, so that will benefit Wawrinka as well, which does not move as well as Djokovic, but has much more shot making. Djokovic is looking the same to me for a while, and that is good. Very consistent as always, serving well and defensively top notch. However, he did not convince me at all while he did not have the matches under control. Verdasco and Raonic could have won him a set, and Gilles Muller gave him enough trouble. Although Djokovic is always Djokovic, he still did not convince me enough and had the luck to have a better draw than most of the players, including Wawrinka which faced a lot of in-forms players. Key to this match is Stan serve. Not really worried about his mentality, I'm pretty sure it will be up for it. Since with Magnus Norman he is much more solid on his mental aspects and knows how to bounce back even during some bad temper moments. Should that first serve be high enough for him to keep his serve as much as possible against the best returner of the tour, then he is off for an upset. Should be a fantastic match to watch, and I hope Stan eventually gets out of it alive.
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Re: Australian Open 2015 If I did bet, Berdych would have won :D did not bet at all, just displayed my insights. But after that, I might just punt Wawrinka 3-1 and 3-2 tomorrow...
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Re: Australian Open 2015 I usually am a bit of a miss in Tennis betting. I love watching Tennis but betting on it never really worked for me. Maybe I just do the wrong picks, but I do think I know some things or two about tennis. I would like to add some to the Berdych - Murray discussion. Point is that both are in good form and playing really well, but the one that really surprised me the most is Murray. Murray always enjoyed the conditions on Melbourne. Courts are fast, which is good for him. First serve is getting better and, most important, he is using his full arsenal of shots, just like he did on his best moments (2012 and 2013 season). I was really impressed to see him breeze past Kyrgios the other day, he just made him look easy. The pre-2011 Murray would have won it in 5 sets, maybe even lost it against a home crowd player, full of intensity and big serve. Berdych did a great match against Nadal but the scorelines hide some truth and bookies might be overconsidering that. I'm pretty sure they are. That bagel is adding up 10 ticks or more in the fair odd. Berdych also always had a bit of a trouble in coping in big moments like this and I would not be surprised to see him fade under pressure. And Murray is much more used to it. I think it will be tight but when the pressure arrives, Murray will be up for it and has much more shot variety than Berdych. And court conditions are very far from slow. Match also at the beginning of the night, which Murray is always fond of. I say Murray 3-1. And btw, I really think Wawrinka has a big chance of beating Djokovic again. Why? The look on his eyes against Garcia-Lopez and Nishikori. Check the photos. I've seen those Wawrinka eyes...when he won the Australian Open last year. Never seen them elsewhere. I'm pretty sure he will be on his top form against Djokovic, and should the serbian not be at his best, then he might just be eliminated as he was last year. I may just punt a bit on him for fun. Although if he actually wins against Djokovic, it will only be in 4/5 sets.
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Re: AFC Asian Cup (Australia) 2015 Draw/Iran @ 4.35 (Unibet) for a 0.25 stake We all know Iran is the king of the 1-0 and of clean sheet matches. Iraq could be a very dangerous team should they have been convincing so far, which they have not. They have the players and the criativity upfront, but poor decision making and very defensive playing style make them a dull team. They managed to escape from their group due to their scrappy win against poor Jordan (1-0). They could not even create that many chances against Palestine, even though they deserved to win 3-0 or 4-0, and were very disappointing against Japan, in a match that was expected to be very tight, but Japan missed a lot of goals. Even though Iran has a big advantage due to having a stronger tactical depth and better players overall, this match should be very tight. Both teams have defensive approaches and will surely enjoy some sit back in the first half. I'm expecting a first half without any interest, two teams fearing each other and expecting defensive mistake. However, in second half, both teams could start to risk a bit more and try to get a goal to put them ahead. And Iran usually know how to score in the second half, with 3 of their 4 goals in this competition being in the second half (and the first half goal was in stoppage time). Both teams also played a friendly before the competition, with Iran nailing the usual 1-0...with a second half goal. Draw/Iran or simply more goals in the second half if you are willing to risk it and should it be above evens should be value. Japan x UAE Over 2.5 @ 2.05 (BetVictor) for a 0.75 stake Japan is the usual suspect around, the stronger squad of the AFC Asian Cup. They did a regular group stage performance, beating Palestine 4-0 without playing 50% of what they can, won 1-0 against Iraq and it could have been 3-0 or so, and did a good performance overall against Jordan. They seem to be coupling well upfront but the lack of finishing is worrying. Okazaki can't find his way to score, while Honda is loving to hit the posts in this competition. But they are playing well, and should have enough to create a handful of goal scoring chances against any team in this competition. However, they Nagatomo and Sakai leave a lot of space behind and quick wingers could exploit that. UAE have pacy wingers and actually surprised everyone. Qatar was named as a big dark horse, but UAE killed their expectations in the first day with a big 4-1 win. Then they managed to win against Bahrain and actually held Iran to a 0-0 until 90+1, where Iran eventually scored a scrappy goal. But UAE actually played well, and even had the control of possession and the match for most of the time. They are a team that's much more worried in scoring than conceding, and even though they could push it to a more cautious approach tomorrow, they will surely test the Japanese defensive line (finally, after 3 matches!) Both teams are attacking based squads and enjoy attacking more than defending, so I expect a wide open match and goals could come in. Japan have been suffering from the lack of finishing but that can't last forever and I expect the big players to step up in these QFs and to start scoring as they should. UAE are not that good defensively, lacking some strength in defensive set pieces and against individual skilled players (Reza from Iran Bahrain forwards gave them a lot of trouble, for example). But upfront, they could damage Japan.
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Re: African Cup of Nations 2015 Thread Gabon Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.37 (bet365) for a 0.55 stake This African Cup of Nations have proved that there are no easy matches. Even the lowest reputation sides are performing really well against the top tiers, and although I think Congo will be a tight contest for Gabon once again, I do think this match could would some goals, and Gabon are rightly the favourites after their win against 2013 runner-up Burkina Faso, by 2-0. Gabon looked a bit shaky in the back, and were saved by an impressive performane of their GK Didier Ovono, but upfront they looked really sharp and effective on the counter, with Bulot and Aubameyang on the wings performing really well, with the latter one being one of the best african players in the world, currently. And also looks in good form. Congo looked very bad in the first half against Equatorial Guinea. Manager Le Roy has said in the post-match press that E. Guinea employed dirty tactics before the match by delaying the Congo bus from arriving to the stadium by an hour, which led them with less time to heaten up and to adapt to local conditions. However, their second half was really good, full of intensity. They only managed to draw in the 87', and they actually could have won it in stoppage time. Overall, they looked a bit dangerous in attack, but defensively, not that good. I do think Gabon has a good chance of scoring twice, as Congo did not look very secure in the back even against a very weak Equatorial Guinea. Congo will possibly step up and try to win it, and maybe employ risky tactics at some moments in the match, and that may leave them exposed to Gabon strong counter-attacking moves and Aubameyang ability on and off the ball. Also, Gabon did not look that good at the back as well (oh, African teams...), and they could also concede as well, which would oblige them to score twice if they want to win it. Would say 2-1 and 2-0 are quite possible results.
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Re: AFC Asian Cup (Australia) 2015 So many misses both from Iraq and Japan. Well a void is better than a loss, of course :)
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Re: AFC Asian Cup (Australia) 2015 Can't see Iraq playing for the draw there. Manager already said they won't underestimate Palestine and alerted players that it will be a tough match, possibly to push away their complacency. I'm pretty sure Iraq will want to win and to win comfortably. I can see them having a strong first half to decide the match (winning 2-0, 3-0) and then try to manage their physical fitness for next round match. It is almost impossible for Jordan to beat Japan, unless they just shut up shop with 11 men behind like they loved doing against Iraq, and eventually score a scrappy goal, but if Japan manage to play half of what they can, they will win. I do like Iraq -2 AH @ 2.1 on Paddy Power. Hard to reject that odd. They have enough talent upfront to score goals against a very bad defensive line of Palestine. Jordan played like sh*t and on the counter against Palestine and actually scored 5... Masturbinho above actually stated some important stuff that I did not know, and I do believe that Iraq will want to start strong and to score some goals in the first half in order to manage their physical fitness in the second half for the QFs. And Palestine, even though some good notes, is very weak at the back. No tactical knowledge and defensive organization whatsoever. If feeling confident, you could also split stakes on Iraq -2 AH and Iraq -2.5 AH.
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Re: AFC Asian Cup (Australia) 2015 Iraq does not need to score more goals to surpass Jordan in the table, I think. First tie-break is results between teams and Iraq won 1-0 against Jordan. I actually think Iraq could even win by 1-0 only to Palestine. But I do agree they are very bad. Defensively they are seriously bad, from what I've seen from them. I think Over 2.5 Iraq is a good shout. Currently on 2 in some bookies.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 hope some of you took it. Also had another bet for today (it was BBTS in Boavista - Estoril) but didn't grab the time. Next week keep in mind that Sporting is going to face an horror team (Académica). That could be another Team Goals chance. More on that later I hope.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 I surely hope not... always a risk taken, but in this case, it is a risk worth taking. plus, curses are meant to be broken!!
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Sporting Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.9 (Sportingbet) for a 0.6 stake Massive odds, get in while you can, as there is big value here. Match is only Sunday 20:15 GMT. Sporting Lisbon is clearly on their best moment of the season after a bit of a crisis during crisis December. The manager was almost out of the club but president held him in behalf of the fans, which are clearly on the manager side here. And the manager managed to change some players and to hold the players against external criticisms against the manager and players, and the squad came out stronger and playing even better. For Sunday, Sporting has Mauricio and Adrien suspended, two starters. But Mauricio will not be missed as Tobias Figueiredo is better than him, while Adrien is important, but as much as Nani, Carrillo or William Carvalho. André Martins also out due to injury. Big player Carrillo is in BIG form and will surely cause havoc in his wing. Nani also coming back from injury, always a threat. Montero and Tanaka are two great centre-forwards. Jefferson is one of the best left-backs in the world in terms of crossing...all in all, Sporting are amazing in attack, and they are without conceding a goal for 6 matches! And on a 7-win streak as well. The in-form team of the league. But the main reason as why I think this bet is value comes from their opponent Rio Ave: theiy are without are without their 4 centre-backs available. Marcelo, Prince, André Villas Boas and Roderick are all injured and out of the match. Pedro Martins (Rio Ave manager) had to call Nelson Monte from the U19 squad and midfielder Tarantini will be adapted to central defender. Also, main left-back is injured. Rio Ave are a very good team offensively but they are not as good in defense, and without all the CBs and without the main LB, they will surely have a lot of trouble against an in-form side. Sporting chances of scoring 3 or more with the like of Nani, Carrillo and Montero upfront against a weak Rio Ave defensive line are big, and I would not rate them even near 2.5, for example. Big value to be taken here, and I expect Sporting to win and to accomplish this bet as well.
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Re: African Cup of Nations 2015 Thread Balboa is a good player for the African Cup of Nations standard, but he is out of physical shape. Was injured until early December.
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Re: African Cup of Nations 2015 Thread I do think Cape Verde is a big dark horse. I know most of their players has some play in Portugal, but the main fact is that every player there plays outside from Cape Verde championships, and almost every one in the call-up plays in competitive european championships. Their weakest link is still their defensive line and goalkeepers, but they have a very experienced and varied midfield, and their attack just boosts with talent with Ryan Mendes, Gerry Rodrigues, Kuca (watch out for this one, outstanding player), Djaniny, Heldon...on their day, they can surely do damage to almost all of the teams in this competition. The market is overrating Zambia as they were champions once, but Cape Verde is much stronger than Zambia atm. Their first match is the hardest one against Tunisia, group favourite. It will all come down on how they manage to play against Zambia. If they win against them, they will qualify. Cape Verde to qualify from 2.25. Also like Islam Slimani @ 9 for top goalscorer of the competition. Algeria may be in the group of death but they are played well, have outstanding talent among them in many players, and although Islam Slimani isn't the most technically gifted player, he surely is a great striker. His aerial ability is the best in the competition and he has that ability to score in crucial moments. He will surely be a starter and should he be lucky to avoid injuries and if Algeria reach the semis (although I think they will be winners here), I'm pretty certain he could end up the competition with 5 or more goals.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Rio Ave -0.70 Arouca +1.25 as a fun fact, it is the fourth time is a row that I bet on a Rio Ave match and it ends 0-0. Never bet on them again. Next week they will lose 4-0 or something :D Murphy's Law..
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Arouca @ 2.15 (BetVictor) for a 0.5 stake Arouca 1-0 @ 6.75 (Unibet) for a 0.1 stake Arouca and Vitória Setubal will play against each other. They are two of the worst teams of the league and will fight for avoiding relegation unless some seriously good players show up for them in the transfer market. This is going to be a very nervy match, I'm afraid. It actually has the potencial to be one of the worst matches of the matchday, but Arouca has the edge mainly because they play at home and also because they just have to win it to escape from the relegation zone. And also, becuase rumours are going through that Pedro Emanuel could leave if Arouca loses. Arouca has some important absences such as Bruno Amaro (starter midfielder) and Artur (main creative player) is doubtful, but playing at home and against Vitória Setubal, which is a team that does not know how to win away. This is more because of what Vitoria Setubal does away from home and not because of what Arouca can do. Arouca are bad, but Vitoria Setubal on away form is just awful. Worst attack, worst defense, less points...and even though they won last match that means nothing. Arouca has a good chance and 2.15 seems a bit value to me. I expect a 1-0 here as well, so CS could also be a chance.
Arsenal v AS Monaco > Wednesday February 25th
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: Arsenal v AS Monaco > Wednesday February 25th If you check the standings you will also see that Monaco is the best defence of Ligue 1 on par with Lyon, first placed. Only 19 goals conceded in 25 matches. For the Champions League away they faced tough opposition and only conceded one goal in the whole group stage! Against Benfica (1-0) and were unlucky not to have drawn that one. Against tough opposition in Ligue 1, they drew against PSG away (1-1), St. Etienne (1-1) and lost against Lyon (1-2). Their bigger loss was against Bordeaux (1-4) but it was the second match of the season and Leonardo Jardim was still testing the team and defensive process was still not good enough. And honestly, except the two main CBs (Abdennour and Ricardo Carvalho) and GK Subasic, the fullbacks other players aren't really that good (although Fabinho is doing a heck of a season). The manager is really good in deploying defensive formations and processes, I consider himself world class actually. I mean, he had a defensive line last season that consisted of Jefferson, Mauricio (awful CB, now on Lazio, did a blunder this week), Rojo (good player but a bit overrated) and Cedric (awful defensively) and guess what? We ended up with the best defence of the league. Take for example last match. Monaco played 45 minutes with 10 players, and even managed to score on the 84th minute and won! I said it before and I will say it again: this could be a very, very tricky round for Arsenal. Everyone said Monaco would end 4th in their group, they ended up 1st! If Arsenal shows up thinking that this is done and dusted, they might as well go off in the 1/8s. I still think Arsenal will go through but this will not be that goal-friendly as it seems. Let's see if my guessing is right.