JuMeSyn
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Posts posted by JuMeSyn
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Re: UEFA Europa League > August 20th & 21st Won't have time to say too much about Rio Ave and Nacional, both portuguese teams today. But will give some hints, although I can't consider this bets as official, as I'm not getting involved. Nacional Nacional lost the first match against Moreirense at home (0-1). Which is hard to believe, as Nacional is usually a team that knows how to score, but I can't be surprised. Moreirense has a coach who likes to shut up shop and that's what happened since the start. 0-0 was the fair result but Moreirense snatched the winner at 80'. Nacional could struggle physically due to the trip, but they have a very good attack, IMO. Last year they were the best counter attacking team of the league, and if Minsk is slow at the back, they will surely be exposed and will concede. Nacional will probably play Rondon and Marco Matias on the wings, very fast players, and upfront they have Suk, who knows how to finish. Well supported by Ali Ghazal and Gomaa, I expect Nacional to try to score 1 and take the away goal. Wouldn't be surprised of the 1-1 scoreline. One final word, if I forget to come by for the 2nd leg: Nacional will probably win at home. They usually have a big home factor, don't look that much to that Moreirense loss. Stadium is above 1,000 meters and other teams struggle there. Moreover, the Dinamo Minsk trip will be heavy for them. Also think Nacional will come through, so if they lose, backing them above evens to qualify might be a good opportunity. Rio Ave Rio Ave will face Elfsborg. I don't know the strength of Elfsborg compared to IFK Gotemburg, but Rio Ave could be one team for the headlines in Portugal, this season. They seem very competent at the back, they still haven't conceded a goal in 90 minutes for 4 official matches. I think Elfsborg should be stronger than IFK, though. They also look in solid form and seem to know how to score. But I would say this Rio Ave could be too much for them. Would expect an Under 2.5 in both matches and Rio Ave to qualify at the end.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 +0.61 Braga won 3-0 -0.20 Nacional lost 0-1
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 for those who didn't use the cash out on bet365, only +0.53. Not the best day, but hopefully better luck next time.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 SC Braga -1.5 @ 2.05 (bet365) for a 0.6 stake The only bet that I'm really confident about for tomorrow, but still on a lower stake as it is first matchday. Boavista lack a lot of individual quality and that will show during the whole match. They didn't look that convincing in the last pre-season match, with losses to 2nd league and 3rd league teams (Sportiing B and Famalicão, respectively). They started the pre-season well with a friendly cup against 1st league teams, but I wouldn't rate that much. Losses against Sporting B and Famalicão shown a big lack of individual quality. They are still waiting for the money from the Portuguese Federation to get some good players and compete. SC Braga have a new manager, Sérgio Conceição, which I rate as a very competent one. They got a lot of new players, some of them are real quality! Their team needed a real boost of quality of some positions, including GK, CBs and wing-backs. Braga didn't make that many pre-season matches, but first indications were very good. Braga have risen the bar to fight for the top-4 again this season. I believe SC Braga will show that even without some important players such as Wallace and with an out-form Rafa, all other players including Pardo, Alan, Tiba, Micael, Eder and Agra upfront, and with renewed quality full-back in Djavan, Tiago Gomes and Marcelo, they seem to have the quality they need to win by 2 at least. Possibly will have to overcome a very defensive and deep Boavista defensive line, but they will eventually collapse. Suk (Nacional) TSA @ 3.2 (bet365) for a 0.20 stake Got it at 3.4 y'day, at 3.2 now and I still rate it as value. Nacional finished 5th place last season and will face Moreirense in the opening round. Moreirense finished first place in Segunda Liga last season but changed their team a lot. They got Miguel Leal as their main manager. Leal led Penafiel to promotion last season and looked to me like a very competent manager. Nacional will face trouble but their team is enough to beat Moreirense. Suk is a south korean striker that Nacional bought in the start of the season. He already played for Maritimo 2 seasons ago, scored some goals and made a good impression. He has been scoring in the pre-season and it is almost a certainty that he will be first team with the departure of Djaniny. He has a good chance to score, and I believe he will.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Nagoya pulling out the defensive performance of a lifetime. Gamba Osaka were unlucky, started well and when 0-1 down struck once against the post. Still, fair result should have been 1-1. -0.75 Kawasaki are 4-1 up on first half. Will consider it as closed on bet365 cashout. +0.53 +0.40
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Kawasaki Frontale -0.5 AH @ 2.00 (betvictor) for a 0.55 stake Kawasaki Frontale -1 AH @ 2.68 (bet365) for a 0.25 stake Not so confident about this one but still rate it as a good bet. Kawasaki Frontale achieved a very important win last week, with a 2-1 hard win against leaders Urawa Reds. With this win, they confirm their status as possible J-League 2014 winners. They didn't do their best game until the 2-1, although after that they could have scored twice. They are a team that plays outstanding football, but seem to lack in big decisive moments due to some lack of depth on defense. Although, they are terrific upfront, with the likes of Renatinho, Okubo and Kobayashi well supported by Kengo Nakamura. Hard for them not to score against any team on the J-League. While I could see Cerezo Osaka as a threat for them with the likes of Forlan upfront, I don't see it that way. Cerezo Osaka are currently living on the edge, and still haven't won since the WC break. The team already dismissed Popovic during the WC break, and current manager doesn't seem to be capable on turning it around. Losing Kakitani was massive, Forlan seems completely out of it, and other team players look not motivated at all. Plus, for tomorrow, midfield dynamo Yamaguchi (played for Japan in the WC) is injured. Kawasaki look like clear favourites here and I would price them 1.80, so 2.00 on the -0.5 AH looks terrific. A bit stake on the -1 AH as I feel that Kawasaki attacking force could be on for a big day as well.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 I don't like the coupon for tomorrow. Usually, when I don't, I tend to not bet that much and lower stakes. Still, couple of interesting stuff: Gamba Osaka & Over 2.5 @ 2.50 for a 0.5 stake (bet365) Gamba Osaka Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 3.25 for a 0.25 stake (bet365) First one is the bet of the day, at least for me. While some think Gamba Osaka are losing some steam in terms of goal-scoring, I have the opposite opinion: I think they are just starting, and matches like Shimizu (which they won 4-0) are just a matter of time to start happening again. Gamba Osaka are a red hot form, 5 games won since the WC break, and all by convincing exhibitions and results. Defensively they are looking well, but it is in the attack that they shine. Takashi Usami has been brilliant, and well backed by the likes of Abe, Patric and Endo, there is no denying they will be up for it again. Nagoya Grampus still haven't won since the WC break and have conceded in every match. They come from a 2-3 home defeat against Antlers, and looked very insecure at the back. Can't place my confidence on them. Good news is the return of Joshua Kennedy, their best attacking player. Still he didn't look in his best physical shape. I think the most likely results here range from between 3-1, 3-0 and 2-1. Gamba Osaka powerful and effective attacking approach will massively submit Nagoya to a lot of trouble. However, Nagoya could also be a threat on the counter, as they do know how to attack, so a goal from them isn't that unlikely. But they cannot defend for life. That's why Gamba will win, and that's why Over 2.5 is likely as well. Gamba Osaka Over 2.5 Team Goals bet is an attempt to push my bank account even further. Nagoya Grampus lack strength in behind, and have real trouble in sitting back and contain defending. Gamba Osaka could have no trouble in scoring twice. Let's hope they can snatch a third as well.
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Re: Portugal Super Cup, 10.August: Benfica vs. Rio Ave Have to say that it was lucky enough for Rio Ave to survive until ET, and there they had the chance to win it. Benfica created some chances, made a lot of shots even though some of them were bad, but were deserved winners. What matters is the bet itself. DNB voided, +0.81 for the double chance.
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Re: Portugal Super Cup, 10.August: Benfica vs. Rio Ave Just to update, Benfica will have Enzo Perez available. He could make the difference. But I still rate Rio Ave as value nonetheless.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 There you go. Closer than I expected though. +1.96
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15
Wise words from this man.Benfica all over the place in pre season after losing several key players. Sporting look good again this season under Marco Silva but after some very good signings Porto as so often is the case in Portugal are the team to beat. I reckon there's going to be some nice value betting against Benfica in the early rounds. -
Re: Portugal Super Cup, 10.August: Benfica vs. Rio Ave Oh thanks. Looks like I was getting confused with the Western/Eastern stuff. No problem :)
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Kawasaki Frontale @ 2.60 @ 2.60 (bet365) for a 0.60 stake Kawasaki Frontale and Over 2.5 @ 4.00 (bet365) for a 0.25 stake As a J-League fan, Kawasaki Frontale is one of those teams that I really enjoy watching them play. Since Yahiro Kazama took over in 2012, Kawasaki Frontale have been playing superb football 80% of the times, and have a terrific team on midfield and attack, with K. Nakamura, Okubo, Renatinho Kawasaki has had a major loss last week against one of the most inconsistent teams in the J-League (loss against Kashiwa 1-4), but I expect them to bounce back as they usually do. And moreover, this match is so important for them if they want to win J-League this season. And they surely can, playing like this. I expect them to perform greatly tomorrow. Watched Urawa Reds against Vissel Kobe and they were so awful. Very lucky to have made it 2-2 at stoppage time. Looked very inconsistent at the back, everytime Vissel Kobe pulled an attack, they were always looking like scoring due to lack of defensive depth. They always seem to know how to score though, even though they don't look that magical upfront. But they have some good individual quality players that know how to finish and that usually makes the difference. They were also not very impressive against Kashima, and never impressive before: lots of 1-0 wins, most of them lucky and due to having a great GK. Kawasaki and Urawa's playing styles, when they collide, give a big advantage to Kawasaki Frontale high tempo style. And I expect that to happen tomorrow as well. And even though Urawa won 1-0 in April against Kawasaki (who were in the ACL and clearly fatigued by then), since Kazama too over, Urawa and Kawasaki faced out 6 times: Urawa won twice 1-0 at home only, and Kawasaki won the other 4 by big scorelines: 4-2, 4-0, 3-2 (at home), 1-3 away. That means something.
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Sticky here, please? :) Sunday we have the supercup. Rio Ave Win or Draw @ 2.80 (bet365) for a 0.45 stake Rio Ave DNB @ 6.00 (bet365) for a 0.30 stake Immense odds for anyone who knows what has been happening with Benfica lately. Benfica, 2013/2014 Champions, Portugal Cup Champions, League Cup Champions, Europa League Final. What could have possibly gone wrong in this pre-season? Everything. To start, let's take a look at last season's end main XI: Oblak; Siqueira, Luisão, Garay, Maxi Pereira; Enzo Perez, Ruben Amorim, Gaitán, Markovic; Lima, Rodrigo Oblak - Left for Atletico Madrid. Siqueira - Left for Atletico Madrid. Luisão - Stayed, but problems with injury. Only started training last Monday, no pre-season fitness for him.. Garay - Left for Zenit. Maxi Pereira - Stayed. Enzo Perez - Possibly leaving today or saturday for Valencia. Ruben Amorim - Stayed, but struggling with minor injuries sometimes. Will possibly be fit for supercup. Gaitán - Stayed, but rumoured to leave before 31/08 for Monaco. Markovic - Left for Liverpool. Lima - Stayed. Rodrigo - Valencia. This means that Benfica lost 7 first team players, and they also lost their bench. Cardozo, Benfica striker legend, left for Trabzonspor, and other bench players such as Bernardo Silva, João Cancelo and Ivan Cavaleiro also left on a loan. And why is everyone leaving? Well, mainly because of awful management. Benfica has had some very big financial problems lately. Their president held the cord to hold his big players just too much, and now everyone is leaving for better contracts in other leagues. Rumours that some players are also leaving as the house is burning over there when it comes to money. Seems like Benfica has to pay a big amount of money until the end of 2014 due to some loans. 85M€, to be precise. That is simply too much, so they have to sell and reduce costs. More than that, Benfica haven't brought anyone that is "great". They brought some talented players such as Benito, Talisca and Victor Andrade but they will struggle to make an impact due to being too young. Other such as Bebe (ex-Man Utd), Eliseu and Derley look like they can be solid attacking options in 1/2 months, but don't have the quality of Rodrigo, or Siqueira, or Cardozo. Other players that came such as Luis Filipe and Cesar are just awful, and can only mean agency businesses. Benfica's president has a rumoured history of corruption behind the scenes, he might just be making his money atm with some players. Jorge Jesus (Benfica's manager) already told that if Enzo Perez leaves, he will also leave with him. He said that in the press conference after losing against Valencia. Pre-season has been awful for Benfica W Estoril (1-0) L Sporting Lisbon, fierce rival (0-1) L Marseille (1-2) L Ajax (0-1) W Sion (2-0) L Athletic (0-2) L Arsenal (1-5) (bloody awful at the back) L Valência (1-3) 2 wins, 6 losses. 6 goals scored, 14 goals conceded. Couldn't be worse. That loss against Arsenal was just awful. Most of the players have no quality for Benfica, and GK Artur has to be one of the worst GKs ever. If Enzo is confirmed to leave during today or tomorrow, Benfica XI for sunday will be: Artur; Benito, Luisão, Jardel, Maxi Pereira; Talisca, Ruben Amorim, Gaitan, Salvio (super-sub last season), Lima, Derley. Some players don't give confidence at all (Artur, Benito, Talisca), others lack match fitness (Luisão, Jardel both CBs). Lima also seems to be not so goal-scoring free as last season. Bench is without any good players besides Ola John and Bebe. Rio Ave are major odds to win here. They looked very solid against Gotemburg in the Europa League qualifying match, and Pedro Martins is a good manager. I'm pretty sure they will give Benfica a hard time, and they stand a big chance of making history.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Bet won. +0.96.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Gamba Osaka Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.37 (bet365) for a 0.7 stake I seriously like these odds. I've been watching Gamba Osaka for a while now since the WC break and they are the hottest form team of the J-League. After two convincing wins against Kofu (2-0) and Shimizu (4-0), they demolished Vissel Kobe in front of their own fans by impressive 5-1. Some players of Gamba Osaka such as Usami, Endo, Abe and Patric are in red hot form. They are playing Yokohama F-Marinos, who are also in relatively good form as well. They drew against Nagoya Grampus 1-1 in last match. The drew disappointed the team and fans. They did enough in the first half to score more and just let Nagoya come back into the match in the second half. They look good in attack with Nakamura and Saito playing well, but defensively can't be trusted. Even though they have Tulio Tanaka as CB, their GK is not the best one around and a good attacking team usually dismantles them and has enough to score at least once. Gamba Osaka is looking very impressive and I can't see them not scoring twice tomorrow. Yokohama could have what it takes to surprise on the break and could score as well. Over 2.5 and BTTS are looking very likely but if Gamba Osaka is solid at the back, maybe Yokohama could have trouble scoring. The real value for me hides in the Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.37 for Gamba Osaka.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 All three a loss. Bad day at the office. -1.5
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Vissel Kobe Over 1.5 TG @ 2.37 (bet365) for a 0.6 stake Notthe bet I'm more confident about, but I do think that the odds are turned around here. Vissel Kobe should be favourite! Almost all bookies price them as odds-against, while betfair actually has them as slight favourites. I do reccur a lot to betfair as I feel it is a more accurate assessment of the odds. But, instead of MO and DNBs, I'm going for the higher value here once again. Vissel Kobe still haven't won since the start after the WC break. After an unlucky loss against Tosu at home (0-1) They drew last match away against Yokohama (1-1). They were lucky to escape with a draw in end but they started very strong and surprised Yokohama. They always enjoy scoring goals, they are the 3rd best attack of the league Gamba Osaka are on terrific form, especially now that Usami is back on the team. They are enjoying a good run of 2 home wins against Shimizu (impressive 4-0 win) and against Kofu (a good 2-0). They still need to be tested once again while playing away and against stronger opposition. Which is the case. This is a tough one to call, I do reckon that it could even end in a draw as Gamba Osaka will be motivated after their last results. However, if we analyse the opposition of Gamba Osaka, they won against low-tier teams (Kofu, Shimizu, Tokyo FC, Nagoya, Tokushima - only strong side was Kashima 2-1 tough win). The also have a great home factor, but clearly lack when playing away. They have a better squad overall than Vissel Kobe if we sum it up, but Vissel Kobe is very strong at home as well, and were only beaten by a very lucky Sagan Tosu side (0-1). Their attack with Marquinhos and Pedro Junior might just to be enough to score at least twice against Gamba. Gamba's attack is looking deadly, but defense is still not to trust and when tested against stronger individual opposition, they always conceded. Home factor will be important here for a Vissel Kobe side who wants to bounce back as quickly as possible and to secure top-4 in the league.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Yokohama Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.28 (Unibet) for a 0.7 stake Yokohama to win and BTTS: Yes @ 5 (Betway) for a 0.2 stake Yokohama travels to Nagoya to face the slumping Nagoya Grampus. Nagoya did an excellent recovery in the last match against Vegalta Sendai (draw 3-3). They were down one goal three times and managed to come back every single time. They scored the 3-3 in the 90 minute, and although they seem to be well moralized and could score 1/2 goals, but they are still facing some serious injury problems. Tulio Tanaka (captain and CB) is off and will be well missed. But other than him, important injuries of Kenneby and Tone could also make Nagoya Grampus struggle a bit. Yokohama are on good form, even though they drew at home against Vissel Kobe (1-1), Yokohama deserved to win and prompted a good exhibition. They are also in good form since J-League started again after the WC. Team is starting to make fans believe that a top-3/top-4 is possible. Key players absence have a big effect anywhere, but specially in J-League. Tulio's Tanaka miss will be a serious impact, with Nagoya Grampus already leaky defense (conceded at least twice in 6/8 home games, worst defensive side at home) ending up in being even more leaky. They even conceded against bottom-rated Tokushima! They don't know how to sit back and defend, and Yokohama look to be good in attack and I reckon they could score at least twice with no problems at all, and 2.28 for O1.5 TG looks to me like some good value, while I would rate it below evens (1.90 maybe). The 5.00 on Yokohama and BTTS:Yes is an outsider bet as Nagoya always finds a way on how to score even though they are defensively bad. I reckon Yokohama has a good chance on winning here but you never know in a draw might come up.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 All bets won :) +0.80, +0.73, +1.25
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 God LOL, yes, speaking of Nagoya. Also had Gamba Osaka to win against Shimizu here but didn't feel the 2.10 was value, so I got myself confused. yes, Nagoya is full of injuries atm. They are very leaky behind and confidence is not at their best after drawing at home against Tokushima Vortis. Vegalta will probably have few trouble in scoring at least once, and could even score twice. I think there could be some goals in this match. Nagoya will probably employ a full-throttle mentality as usual, and could leave a lot of space behind. thanks! One of my favs leagues...big talents there and good in-play opportunities as well.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Don't really fancy the match coupon for tomorrow. Struggling in finding value above 2.40, but there seems to be something here. Yokohama F Marinos x Vissel Kobe - BTTS: Yes @ 2.00 (Unibet) for a 0.8 stake. Both teams looked well enough in creating goal chances in their last matches. Vissel Kobe is not on their best form, being eliminated from the Emperor's Cup against low-tier team and lost their last match at home against Sagan Tosu (0-1). However, they did play really well for the first 45 minutes, and created enough chances to score at least once. They were really unlucky in not scoring. Yokohama have been scoring for fun after their bad start of season. After the WC break, they started winning and scoring goals, especially due to the increase of form of Saito and Nakamura. After the WC break, one win (2-1 away against always difficult Sanfrecce Hiroshima) and one draw (2-2 away against C-Osaka). Yokohama is in good form and Vissel Kobe look leaky enough in the back. I can't see them not conceding, but Kobe also has a terrific record in scoring away. They have scored at least once in every single away match, and they are always ready to score with Marquinhos and Pedro Junior in the attack. Two great strikers! Yokohama look good upfront, but haven't really been that great in the back too, and will have trouble in holding out the brazilian duo. I think BTTS: Yes @ 2.00 is a great bet here. Both teams have goods chances in scoring at least once, and I would go for anything above 1.90, which is the case. Also think Overs should be way lower, 1.83/1.90 would be much more accurate. Urawa to win to nil @ 2.05 (bet365) for a 0.7 stake. Urawa are playing away against last place Tokushima Vortis, a team that is having serious trouble in getting results in the J-League. They have only managed two draws and a very lucky away win. Urawa are with 6 consecutive clean sheets. Nishikawa is a terrific GK who is holding out the team really well. Urawa's defensive line and holding midfield looks great as well. Urawa are well managed by their coach, but sometimes they lacked discipline and concentration in both last seasons, which made them get some strange results sometimes. I think that may start to happen again during the 2nd half of the season, but not against Tokushima. Tokushima has a lot of trouble scoring even against low-tier teams and has only scored once at home in 7 matches. Urawa is not match for them, and they best they can hold out is a 0-0 draw. I expect them to park the bus since minute one and I just can't see them scoring against a very well organized Urawa side, which will probably score one or two goals to get the 3 points. Vegalta Sendai Over 1.5 @ 2.5 (Coral) for a 0.5 stake Outsider bet, but I do fancy my chances here. Shimizu haven't been that great this season and were very unimpressive against Kawasaki, even though they did an reasonably above average first half. Their second half was clumsy, full of defensive errors and without firepower upfront. They really seem lost and I can't seem them turning it around at least for now. Vegalta Sendai have taken a big step forward since Watanabe took over. They don't lose for the league for 7 matches. Last match was a 0-0 away draw in very hard pitch conditions. Think Vegalta might struggle physically. I wouldn't be surprised of Vegalta winning 1-0, but Shimizu are clearly not good in the back so Vegalta could score at least twice, and I would say it could be 50/50, and 2.5 is not 50. Clear value here.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 1-0, goal scored in first half. -0.45 +0.93 second bet won.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 you are correct, sir! Oddschecker didn't point that 3.75 out though. Well, a bit risky as always. Let's hope for the best.
UEFA Europa League > August 20th & 21st
in Europa League Predictions
Posted
Re: UEFA Europa League > August 20th & 21st
Nacional is a good counter-attacking team, though.