JuMeSyn
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Posts posted by JuMeSyn
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Easy wins :)
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Vegalta Sendai x Vissel Kobe: Vissel Kobe Team Goals Over 1.5 @ 2.50 (bet365) for a 0.4 stake Although the DNB has been as high as 2.10 for Vissel Kobe, I clearly feel that all the value is on Vissel Over 1.5 Team Goals. Vegalta Sendai lacked attacking power to steamroll Tokushima Vortis with a narrow 1-0 away win and haven't been that convincing in other matches, which clearly shows that they will fight for avoiding relegation until the end the season, unless some new players come after the WC 2014. Moreover, Vegalta is full of injuries, some of them very important players. Meanwhile, Vissel Kobe are in top flight, even though with 3 draws. They have no margin for error and their attack, with Pedro Junior and Marquinhos, will surely do some damage in a unmotivated and quality-lack Vegalta Sendai side. I expect Vissel to score at least 2 to secure a win, so 2.50 odds look excellent.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Gamba Osaka x Tokushima Vortis: Gamba Osaka -1.5 AH @ 2.10 (bet365) for a 0.6 stake. Last year J-League 2 leaders are facing some unexpected troubles in the start of this J-League season. With only 9 points and on the 16th place, it was truly expected much more from them. They haven't been that great offensively, and they still lack consistency defensively. They have conceded in every home match so far, but well, they still haven't faced Tokushima! Tokushima are easily the worst team of the J-League, and will surely get relegated. They managed to win against Kofu 2 weeks ago in a very lucky match, having 2 chances against 20 of Kofu, and it ended 1-0 to them. Other matches reveal big losses, which basically explain that there is a big quality game between Tokushima Vortis and every other team in the J-League. Tokushima have two key defenders out, and their defense will only be leakier for tomorrow, even though Toru Hasegawa is a good GK. Gamba Osaka know they have to win it here if they want to avoid relegation and still fight for a mid-table position. I reckon they will win this one, and their attack will be at their highest level tomorrow after their good offensive performance against Yokohama, even though they didn't get to score any goals. Would expect 2-0, 3-0 or 3-1 scoreling for tomorrow, therefore Gamba Osaka -1.5 AH is a good bet for tomorrow, and it may even get lower until KO.
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Re: World Cup 2014 > Top Goalscorer Outright Betting Still think Benzema is too high.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 is it? http://i.imgur.com/TT83zA1.png sorry as it is in Portuguese. But I think it shows up the bet on that odd. Now the odds are at 2.90, and 2.20 on the DNB. Too late, but not for me :) lucky to have caught that! Usually if it is fixed, teams like to go for the 1-1, but I agree that 0-0 could be a good bet as both teams are not that great in attack, especially Gil Vicente. GL. Odds are now at 2.80 in some bookies, expecting it to go until 2.50 for tomorrow.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Nacional x Sporting bet failed. Have two more for tomorrow, based on squad call-ups of Maritimo. Attention, Maritimo B x Moreirense is from the Second League. MarÃtimo B x Moreirense: DNB MarÃtimo B @ 6.00 (bet365) for a 0.5 stake Not very used to betting in the second league, but such odds cannot be ignored. Maritimo B has 42 points, and is 21th placed. Atletico is the last placed with 40 points, and only the last placed will drop to the third division. Maritimo's manager Pedro Martins dropped 3 main players Artur, Danilo Dias and Nuno Rocha to the B team to help them stay in the second league. He told in the press conference that the Maritimo's project is much more important that the Maritimo final standing. With no Europe to fight for, ending up in 6th or 10th is equal. Moreirense is the first placed team, that's true, and they only need the draw to win the Championship, so I can see them relax a bit and Maritimo's B will surely play fully motivated, and players like Artur and Danilo Dias are usual X11 and will surely add quality to the team, possibly enough to win. Maritimo B has a good record at home, even against bigger teams, and Moreirense tend to have trouble in bigger travels. Other thing that makes me think about backing Maritimo B is that Moreirense have a somewhat strange record of supposed corruption, and who knows? After all, Moreirense only needs one point and there's still a game at home against Tondela. Actually, they can be Champions if Penafiel doesn't win in U.Madeira, which is usually a hard stadium to grab 3 points. Just jump in before on Maritimo B seriously drop! I just grabbed the DNB @ 6.00 30 minutes ago! When bookies notice it, Maritimo will possibly go favourites before KO. Sp. Braga x Maritimo: Sp. Braga @ 1.95 (bet365) for a 0.7 stake This one just follows the ideas of the last bet for Maritimo B. As Artur, Danilo Dias and Nuno Rocha leave, Maritimo's manager called 6 players from the B team which are usually not first team in Maritimo B. Maritimo will surely be weaker in the bench and their defensive line has been very leaky lately. Braga playing at home, will possibly fight for honor and for the 6th place. Except Eduardo and Baiano, Braga has the full team available and although I see them concede once, as Derley is a great striker and can score, Braga will surely have many chances facing a Maritimo, and will possibly win this one.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Back to the Portuguese League betting. Two bets for now. Nacional x Sporting: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 (Unibet) for a 0.75 stake Both Sporting and Nacional achieved outstanding results in terms of expectations. Nacional was expected to perform well and end mid-table, but actually achieved Europa League qualification, while Sporting wanted the 3rd place for CL play-off spot. Instead, Sporting eventually fought hard for the championship, losing to a much better Benfica at the end, but achieving the 2nd place for direct CL qualification is a big achievement for a team that's full of young talent and that surpassed a big financial crisis. However, Leonardo Jardim (Sporting coach) already advised that the team is not on vacations, and revealed that he wants the 3 points. He might do one or two changes, but I expect a good Sporting side, with no pressure at all. Nacional's manager said that still feels motivation within his team while they want to see themselves to other teams for the transfer market beginning. Nacional is a very hard team to beat, and I'm not sure that Sporting could manage to do it. But I can't see them losing as well, so a draw might seem okay. However, I'm not willing to go for that risk but I do believe that both teams will fight hard enough for the win. No pressure at all will help in free-flowing as well. Nacional usually score at home and have some great counter-attacking processes. Sporting plays a very effective football and will surely know how to dismantle Nacional's defensive line. I think Over 2.5 @ 1.85 has a touch of value, so I'm taking it. Arouca x Gil Vicente: Draw @ 3.10 (bet365) for a 0.35 stake This one is just about avoiding relegation. Both teams are with 28 points, way ahead of getting relegated. Still, they are still not safe. Paços de Ferreira winning both of their games while Arouca or Gil Vicente both losing them could see them miserably fail and end up in 15th place, which gives a play-off spot against the 3rd placed team in Second Division. Plus, if Arouca still draws this one and Paços wins both games, they have full disavantadge in direct confrontation (0-0 3-1 for Paços) if Gil Vicente eventually wins on sunday or draws on matchday 30. Then how would both teams save their seasons? That's right...a draw. With a draw, both teams would reach 29 points, making it impossible for Paços to save themselves, as with a 29 points tie, a mini-league between 3 teams is the tie-breaker. And considering a draw, Gil Vicente would have 7 points, Arouca 5, and Paços 4. I do think Arouca will have the edge here, but I wouldn't be surprised if both teams settled for a draw and avoid risking no more for the final matchday in one week. Arouca is actually needing some money as well as rumours also talk about financial problems there...so why not a draw??
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Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st Can't see a team that is with bigger motvation than Benfica right now. They already won the championship, on Portugal Cup and League Cup finals, and could also get to an historic Europa League final to try to win all four competitions. Amazing! However, I feel that a qualification to the final will not be possible at all for the Lisbon side. I truly expect a very good match overall, with Juventus winning not only the game, but also the tie. Although Benfica's motivation is sky high after winning the championship and eliminating FC Porto on penalties with a "B" side on last week, I believe achieving the qualification against a fully motivated fan-boosted Juventus side will a task too difficult to handle. Especially if Vidal plays. Enzo Perez is an outstanding midfielder, probably the best Argentina midfield atm, but handling out Pirlo and Pogba away will be a very difficult task. Now imagine if Vidal plays as well, even if only 45 minutes as expected. Ruben Amorim is a solid midfielder, but low on stamina and could be physically destroyed. In the first leg, even if some Benfica fans say the opposite, Juventus midfield outclassed Benfica's. And I expect it to happen today. Then it will only be a matter of knowing how will Juventus defensive line handle Rodrigo and Lima on top-form, as Tevez upfront will surely score one if given enough space. By 75' minutes, Benfica will be physically destroyed by Juventus playing style. Atmosphere will be electric and also against Benfica. Even with such motivation, players will probably be very affected by it. As curiosity, in the Jorge Jesus era, when Benfica was eliminated in CL and EL ties, ALL of them were with Benfica playing first at home and then away. 09/10 = Liverpool (2-1 home 0-4 away), 10/11 = Braga (2-1 home 0-1 away), 11/12 = Chelsea (0-1 home 1-2 away). Last season they lost in the final, so it an exception. Also think that the ref could be enough biased for Juventus.Today, my money is on the Italians. However, I don't find any odd of particular interest. I do think we might see some goals in set pieces, maybe Pirlo, Chiellini or Luisão for Benfica could score. I see Juventus going through, but not without a goal from Benfica. BTTS @ 2.00 on some bookies, could be considered. But I'm going with two outsider bets, just for fun: Juventus 3-1 @ 13. Risky, but low stakes on that for me. The other outsider bet is Over 0.5 on 10' minutes @ 5.50. I believe the game can have 1 goal in the first 10 minutes, probably from Juve. They will want to score as fast as possible to deliver all the pressure to the hands of Benfica. They usually are quick starters at home, and Benfica, when they concede away, usually it is the starting minutes. Low stakes as well, but feel odds here could be 4.00.
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Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st Still need to confirm my thoughts with tomorrow's previews on the newspapers, but: 1 - No, I don't think Salvio will play even if 100%. Will only come on the 70' if Benfica trailing the semi-final tie. Too risky to place a player like him on this kind of matches, under such intensity. Might just worse the injury, so I can't see him play more than 20'. However, what if it goes to extra time? That could be quite worrying. Markovic will start up instead of him. 2 - Midfield is still a worry. Fesja is out, Ruben Amorim will play instead of him. Benfica will lose agressive composure on midfield, even though Ruben Amorim is much better offensively, that could be worrying. Andre Almeida will start on the bench, probably, just in case of an injury from Enzo Perez or Ruben Amorim Gaitan is fit but looks like not fully fit, so probably Sulejmani will come on at 70' to take over his spot. 3 - My probable starting line-up for Benfica is: Artur; Siqueira, Luisão, Garay, Maxi Pereira; Ruben Amorim, Enzo Perez; Gaitan, Markovic; Lima, Rodrigo
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Re: FC Bayern München v Real Madrid > Tuesday April 29th Incredible from Real. Big credit for them.
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Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st Also, Enzo might be out as UEFA might still apply him a ban due to a supposed hit in the face of Chiellini, in the first half. Without him, Benfica will be less likely do suceed. Thursday I'll say a bit more about this one, but I think Juventus will eventually scrape through this one.
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Re: FC Bayern München v Real Madrid > Tuesday April 29th
exactly my thoughts. Although I do feel Bayern is ready to put on the season. Just like Dortmund did against Real Madrid three weeks ago. Let's not forget that Real Madrid usually have a lot of trouble in Germany (well, except Schalke 04 in the 1/8s, but that shouldn't even count, Schalke 04 just knows in playing wide open and Real Madrid were on best form of the season), but I do feel Real Madrid will also be ready for the performance of the season. I think we will have a great match. First half will be more quiet, Bayern will try to over-conserve possession, they might as well reach the 70-75%. They know that they have to stop counter-attacking approach from Real, so the best trick is to keep the ball at all costs. Slowly, they will start their engines and push it hard on RM on the final 10 minutes of the 1st half. Real Madrid will have their chances as Bayern Munchen can't really stop counter-attacks without keeping the possession, and with such pacers upfront (Di Maria, Ronaldo, Bale if he plays, Benzema), Bayern is up for a hard task there. Neuer could be important here, and he usually overperforms in moments like this. But I don't think he can stop Real Madrid from scoring at least once. That makes BTTS a serious contender for bet of the day, even if at low odds. If there is an early goal, we are on for a shedfest of goals IMO. Wouldn't be surprising to see a 2-2, 3-2 in case of an early goal. But I seriously don't expect it, as Guardiola doesn't want the game to be cut open in the first half of the match, and to try avoiding nervous breakdown from his team. Yesterday, I thought Bayern would go through. Today, I think Bayern will win, but Real Madrid will qualify to Lisbon. I'm doing just a small punt here: 2-1 @ 8.50.It is worth bearing in mind that Bayern have been woeful in their last 3 home Champions League games. Lost 3-2 against Man City, drew 1-1 with Arsenal and United took the lead there and a lapse of concentration cost them. Real Madrid are streets ahead of those three english sides at the moment. -
Re: FC Bayern München v Real Madrid > Tuesday April 29th Pure gamble this one. Totally avoiding it and just watching the beatiful game :) but I got a strange feeling that Bayern scoring no goals in Spain has killed them here. Real Madrid surely will score there, Bayern aren't that impressive defensively. Maybe BTTS...?
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Shimizu 1-0, bet won +0.75 Kobe 2-2, bet void +0.00
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Re: World Cup 2014 > Qualify from Group Betting Just take a look at Netherlands defensive line. One cannot trust a single player from there, except the goalie. Chile will tear that thing apart, they usually are able to win against sides with low-tier defensive lines. Plus, anyone who has watched the match against England and even the match against Germany where Low was booed after the match, even though Germany won 1-0. Chile to qualify is still @ 2.20 on some bookies, definitely take as much as you can for now.
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Re: Japan j1 league 2014 Also fancy some J-League :) great league for goals, but odds usually not good enough for it as I search for odds above 1.80. Shimizu S-Pulse x Vegalta Sendai: Shimizu S-Pulse @ 2.00 (bet365) for a 0.75 stake This one is quite easy to justify. Shimizu S-Pulse are on a 3-game wiinning streak after an awful start of season. Although their 3 wins were against low-tier teams, they still have some merit in achieving those wins, and Vegalta Sendai is also a low-tier opponent. They already dismissed their manager, and bounced back with an important win against a not-motivated Yokohama F-Marinos away. But after it, they lost at home 0-3 to Sagan Tosu, clearly indicating that against well motivated teams, they will struggle. Vegalta Sendai is also having injury trouble, with 1 important defender ruled out and other 2 in doubt. An important midfielder is also ruled out. Manager went to the youngster team to get some players to the bench. Shimizu may miss Nagazawa, as he will undergo a surgery which will stop him from playing for the whole season. He was the main team striker, and the team will surely miss him, and that's why I'm not going for the handicaps here. But I do feel Shimizu will win this one, even if by one goal margin. Vissel Kobe x Cerezo Osaka: DNB Vissel Kobe @ 2.00 (bet365) for a 0.6 stake Going for another MO or DNB bet. Vissel Kobe are surprisingly league leaders. Second-placed in last year J-League 2 got an auspicious start, and have some great brazilian talent, consisting of Fabio Simplicio (remember him, at Palermo?) and two great strikers Pedro Junior and Marquinhos. They have been having a laugh scoring and playing well. They recorded a very surprising but deserved win against Kashima Antlers away 3-2 in the last match, and that shows how much the team is really good. Cerezo Osaka have a very talented team, and Forlan up-front! However, he is having a lot of trouble in safely adapting to J-League. He has been scoring sometimes, but his overall contribution is not the one people have expected, so far. Usually, ACL competition draw a lot of fatigue on asian teams. They are not so physically prepared for games in-between 72 to 96 hours, and C-Osaka is having trouble with such match workload. They won the last ACL match though and will be motivated due to coming back to a usual winning habit, but I can see them collapse physically against a much more efficient Vissel Kobe. Can't see Kobe losing here, so a DNB looks safe enough.
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Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday April 24th If I would bet something for this game, I would clearly say 1-1 or 2-1 win for Benfica. Might just dutch these results. I frankly agree with most of what arsenalfh said. although, i feel that superior individual quality will make Juventus go through. Just.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Vitória Setúbal odds have been shortening all day. 3.30 to 3.00, currently, should be down to 2.90 at least before KO.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 FC Porto have no further objectives for the season. They still haven't got the 3rd place assured, as Estoril is right behind with 50 points. FC Porto has 55 points. A win tomorrow will do it, but they will be emotionally Bet for tomorrow, may have some updates during tomorrow: Vitória Setúbal x SC Braga: DNB Setubal @ 2.25 (bet365) for a 0.7 stake and Setubál @ 3.30 (bet365) for a 0.3 stake. Just splitting DNB 0.7 and MO 0.3 in case of draw, because I still think we might have a draw, but Setubal is the much better team at the moment. Setubal has been playing outstading football at home, specially, since Jose Couceiro took over. They are with 34 points, right behind SC Braga, and a win tomorrow will see them get to the 6th place. Vitoria Setubal will surely have the motivation to prove that they are the 6th best portuguese team atm, and I'm sure Jose Couceiro will motivate them enough to win tomorrow. He still advised that he isn't expecting a weakened Braga though. Braga, except for during 30 minutes against Porto, has been very unimpressive lately. Team is full of absences and players with big physical troubles lately. They lost the chance for direct Europa League qualification after losing against Rio Ave 2-0 in Vila do Conde. They can't get to Europa League via championship as well. A very unsuccessful season for them, based on recent national and continental achievements. Jorge Paixão should be dismissed and the end of the season, and there are rumours of some players that should be released in a near future. These players should be motivated to prove that Braga's president is wrong. But just like I said in the intro, Setubal is the much better team and should be 2-0 up in the first half if everything goes well and they start movitated enough and with Horta and Pedro Tiba up front. João Mário is completely in-form and is the team maestro, does a lot of assists and will play as well. Braga still have some players in doubt, and their defensive line is very leaky due to lack of team quality in the back. Setubal to win here looks a BIG value bet, and I would price them as favourites according to the circunstances. You simply have to back them as these prices. A crazy bet would be Setubal and BTTS: Yes @ 7.00. In case you do it, recommend a 0.15 stake on it.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 30 minutes before KO, got one here: Paços Ferreira x Nacional: Over 2.5 @ 2.00 (bet365) for a 0.5 stake; ALTERNATIVE BTTS @ 2.00 (bet365) after 5-10' minutes for a 0.5 stake. Paços Ferreira is 15th place with 23 points and has 3 big finals against Nacional, Rio Ave and Académica to avoid relegation. The 15th will make them fight for relegation against the 3rd placed team from 2nd division. Belenenses has 24 points, and Paços have advantage in case of draw, so even a draw will be enough, but it is better that they secure the win, and they will fight for it. On the other hand, if Nacional wins, they are assured for Europa League next season. We have two very motivated teams here, that will fight for every moment on the pitch, and I truly believe that we are about to see some goals here. Wouldn't be surprised on Overs 3.5 coming in as well. 30 minutes before KO, and Nacional have a VERY offensive formation IMO, with Candeias (usual winger) on the middle on 4-3-3, with possibility to quickly adopt a 4-2-4 if needed. I recomend you to do a 0.25 stake on O2.5 and then push the remaining on BTTS after 5 minutes or so.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Think Benfica will not lose but I see no value on it, except if coupled on a treble, 4-fold, 5-fold... Braga x Porto is also a no bet for me.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Can't agree with Belenenses. Their squad is so much better than the standings actually say. Big talent in midfield, too bad that they don't have good CBs and a striker that guarantees at least 10 goals, or else they would be middle-tier with no problems at all. I actually think there is a risk of Nacional - Maritimo in being a low scoring match if managers just come out scared. I think Nacional might just win it. 2.20 actually looks good for that but a derby is always a derby. Usually derbies between them are high-scoring likely and unpredictable, game in the 12th was a great one, unpredictable until the last minute. I think there is a lot at stake tomorrow and I just can't see it being a low scoring match, so there is a bit value on overs. not much, but there is. Would price it 1.90/1.95 tbh. I also feel Sporting will destroy Gil Vicente and I'm still looking at that -2 handicap... totally agree with Rio Ave - Olhanense.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Some bets for tomorrow: Nacional x Maritimo: Over 2.5 @ 2.10 (bet365) for a 0.6 stake. The "Madeira Derby" is usually a big clash, except for one or another 0-0 outlier. Nacional is the 5th placed, and come from a harsh defeat in Setubal against Vitória FC (0-3). Result is quite misleading though, as they had the chances to score at least one or two. Maritimo comes from a very important win against Arouca at home, which still makes them dream with the possibility of achieving the Europa League objective, and they need to get to the 5th stop. 4 points separates Maritimo from Nacional, so they truly have to win it here. Nacional won't have important players Marçal and Candeias available, but Aly Ghazal (defensive midfielder) is back to shut up shop on Nacional's midfield. Plus, I think Zainadine and Diego Barcelos are good players and Nacional won't miss them that much. MarÃtimo has no big absence to add since last match. This game is crucial for both teams. Nacional need to secure the 5th place, while Maritimo really have to score, and actually win to keep on dreaming with Europa League. I can see it becoming a very intense match due to the circumstances and as it is a Madeira derby, with both teams playing on the offensive and trying to score goals. Both defenses are not reliable at all against tough pressure, so I'm pretty sure we could see some goals. BTTS @ 1.83 and there is no value there, so I'm going for the Over 2.5 @ 2.10 which looks at much better odds. Belenenses x Vitoria Guimaraes: Belenenses @ 2.60 (Bet365) for a 0.5 stake. Bigger stake than usual here. Belenenses secured a VERY important win last match, which made them jump out of the relegation at 16th. 15th secures the play-off spot against the 3rd place from Segunda Liga, which is not too bad, but Belenenses manager and players want more, and they want to avoid the play-off as well. Belenenses has 21 points, and Paços Ferreira (14th) have 23 points. As Paços play against Estoril away, Belenenses might get in front of Paços Ferreira with a win. We all know that last matchdays makes lower tier teams play their best games in overall. Belenenses, with their first win after 8 matches without winning, are surely well motivated and have all players available for this clash, including in-form Miguel Rosa and very talented players in midfield. After this match, Belenenses face two difficult tests to grab some points, against Sporting (h) and Estoril (a), which only leaves last match against Arouca (h) as the last escape in case of need. This just pushes the current match for the most important match of the season. Vitória Guimarães are completely lacking form, conceding more goals than they should, 7 games without a win, manager is in complete disbelief and a lot of important players missing (André André, Paulo Oliveira, Marco Matias, Joao Amorim and Pedro Correia). I think it will be tight, but in the end, I expect Belenenses to secure the most important win of the season. --- can't push a preview for Sporting - Gil Vicente for tomorrow, but Sporting to score in both halves @ 1.90 (bet365) for a 0.7 stake is the only thing that looks like value there. Gil Vicente is always awful and has a lot of trouble is defending against stronger teams. Decisive game for Sporting as if they win, they will be only 1 win away of securing the Champions League direct qualify for next season.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 No bet for me. Vitória inconsistent away, Académica not the same as they were a month ago. Might turn out in a dull 1-0 win for anyone, might be a 0-0 as well. Maybe Unders...
International Friendlies 13th May - 31st May
in Other International Predictions
Posted
Re: International Friendlies 13th May - 26th May I actually rate Equador quite highly. Portugal had some trouble in a friendly against them (we lost 2-3). A bit leaky behind but outstanding on the counter. They have 3/4 very technical and fast players upfront, and will enjoy the climate in Brazil. I can see them upsetting the Switzs for a place in the 1/8s.