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JuMeSyn

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    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

    in Portugal Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Too bad there weren't any markets for red card penalty in the Olhanense game. Would have some real kaching with that. Oh, and bad betting from my behalf on the Slimani one. Although Sporting played really well and he assisted twice, didn't get to score. Tomorrow we have some crazy betting days, I hope. Have a feeling that everything might go wrong or right: Maritimo x FC Arouca: Maritimo Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.20 for a 0.40 stake ; Derley TSA @ 2.75 for a 0.20 stake (bet365) Marítimo are 10th placed with 31 points and will be facing relegation battlers Arouca (12th place, 25 points). Marítimo comes from a draw in Gil Vicente (1-1) and Arouca won against Setúbal at home in a very hard fought game (1-0). Marítimo still wants Europa League, but they have to win tomorrow. Arouca haven't been that great on defending while playing away, and they are conceding for 5 consecutives matches. Against top tiers on attack, they seem to have trouble in not conceding, and Maritimo has some very creative and fast players up on the attack (Sami, Weeks, Danilo Dias and especially Derley). Marítimo has always scored at home at least once, and few teams can do that. Actually, Marítimo is the 5th best attack on the league. However, their defensive abilities are really bad, home and away, and I'm expecting one goal from Arouca at least. BTTS @ 2.00 is good odds, IMO. But I'm going the extra mile and risking the Over 1.5 Maritimo @ 2.10. Can't see Arouca holding Maritimo, when Maritimo know that this game is decisive to still reach the Europa League. For Arouca, this one isn't so decisive, which might see them relax a bit, even if they fight enough. Also splitting some stake in Derley TSA @ 2.75, great odds! Scored 3 of the 5 goals of Maritimo in the past 5 games, clearly an outstanding striker and also takes penalties, should there be one. Vitória FC x Nacional: DNB Vitória @ 2.00 for a 0.60 stake (bet365) This one is the bet of the day for me, therefore the higher stake. Always a risk, though. Vitória FC still dream with the Europa League and this game is extremely decisive. They come from a loss against Arouca (0-1), but have been outstanding at home in 2014. They still haven't lost at home in 2014 and they have been playing some extraordinary football in ponctual moments, with some very young creative players upfront. Nacional come from a great win against FC Porto (2-1) in a game that they weren't expected to win and therefore, the 5th places looks more secure now, they can relax a bit against Vitória. The biggest absent from Nacional is Aly Ghazal, egyptian defensive midfielder which is extremely important in the team's defensive process and attack-defense transition. Without him, Nacional has had some trouble in sustaining teams with high attacking flows, and Vitória FC are just in that kind of form. In conclusion, I just can't see Vitória FC losing here. A draw might be possible, as Nacional also have quality players up-front and now how to efficiently counter-attack, but I believe Vitória FC will have the edge here, due to home factor and importance in winning today. FC Porto x Académica: Under 2.5 @ 1.90 for a 0.50 stake; Draw or Académica @ 4.50 for a 0.15 stake (bet365) Well, this one goes just against everyone. After Sporting winning against Paços yesterday (3-1), FC Porto have absolutely no theoretical chance to reach the second place for the direct CL qualification, IMO. Therefore, it is important to secure the third place, at least, and they still have plenty of games for that. Today's match could just be that one, but after that hard-fought game against Sevilla and full focus on Europa League and Portugal and League Cups, I don't expect full commitment from FC Porto players tomorrow. Helton and Maicon are still unavailable, and Luis Castro might rotate on the right-back and central midfielders. However, I expect Académica to pull a surprise. They are dreaming with the Europa League and draw or win against FC Porto might just pull the team spirits up ahead to reach the "impossible". Even if they can't have Djavan (important left-back) and Cleyton (creative midfielder), they still have their weapons and I expect them to keep it tight at the back. They conceded 3 against Benfica and 1 at home (bad defensive error) against Olhanense, but I think they be will great again on defensive processes. I'm splitting some stakes on Under 2.5, as I feel it will be a low-scoring match. Academica away games are usually low-scoring and FC Porto with new manager has had some 1-0 wins. I do think there might be a draw here, and I'm going for a fun Double Chance on Académica or Draw @ 4.50.

    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

    in Portugal Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Life decision match for both team's objectives. Olhanense need to win to push Belenenses below and have a lifeline chance for the play-offs. (yes, 15th placed gets to face the 3rd place in Segunda Liga because the Primeira Liga is going from 16 teams to 18 teams). So a draw or win is needed. Braga need to get closer to the 5th place. Wouldn't touch simply anything, although I can't see Olhanense winning here. Would only jump on red card/penalty taken due to Olhanense penalty conceded record and Duarte Gomes (today's ref) awful penalty (0.3 per game) and red card (0.5 per game) records. No markets for it though.

    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

    in Portugal Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Paços Ferreira - Sporting: Slimani To Score Anytime @ 2.62 for a 0.40 stake (bet365) Once more, I'm going on with this one. But first, a little preview. Paços de Ferreira were last placed for relegation when new manager Jorge Costa came in. Now, they are extremely secure and possibly will stay in Primeira Liga after some impressive wins aganst Maritimo and Arouca (home) and Vitória Guimarães (away). With the ressurgence of Bebe and good transfer window movement (Del Valle, Boaventura) and Jorge's Costa motivation, the team stepped out and is now much more feared on the league. However, they face Sporting Lisbon, with need of points to secure the second spot and to reach the millions of Champions League. Sporting are 8 points away of securing the 2nd place, and I expect them once again to deliver an exhibition to win. However, this Paços Ferreira will give them a lot of work. Plus, Paços Ferreira home is not the best stadium for Sporting. They usually have a lot of trouble here, and games are usually very tough and won by the 1-0 margin. But I don't expect that to happen today. Paços Ferreira will be extremely motivated, and theie attacking line pace and agressiveness will push Sporting players behind, and they could possibly score one or two. But defensively, they have been very disappointing. They are conceding in 11 matches in a row, worst defense on the league and 2nd worst defense at home, which says a lot about their defensive abilities. While Overs and Over 1.5 Sporting could be considered due to this, simply no value there. Islam Slimani hasn't been scoring for a while now, but he has had the chances in both last games. I expect him to get some more chances today, and possibly score one or two, should he play on the XI.

    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

    in Portugal Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Vitória SC - Estoril Praia: BTTS @ 2.05 for a 0.50 stake (unibet) This week matchday on Portugal's Primeira Liga starts up with tough-battlers Vitória SC against 4th place Estoril Praia. Both teams are not in their best moment, and come from two defeats by 0-1. Vitória SC are facing some serious finishing problems, did enough to score in both games against Gil Vicente and Sporting Lisbon but didn't manage to make it by bad luck or clumsiness. Manager Rui Vitoria already revealed that they have been practising the finishing during the week, so we will surely see a goal from Vitória, who will want to win to get back on track with the Europa League dream, which is still possible but they have to win against Estoril Praia. Estoril Praia comes from a home loss (0-1) against Rio Ave, which are one of the best away teams in the league. Estoril did enough to score as well and draw the game at least, they even missed a penalty. Just like Rio Ave, Estoril works better away than at home, Estoril made 24 points away against 19 points at home. They scored at least once in 10 of the 12 away matches and actually won once against current Champions FC Porto (1-0) which is quite impressive. It is expected from them to bounce back since last loss, and I actually can't see them losing, but odds don't looks that great on Estoril or Draw. Vitória doesn't seem like the best team defending at home against teams with more talented players up front. However, they have been practising some finishing, which might see them score even against a solid Estoril. Estoril might slip a goal or two on the counter or due to corners. BTTS @ 2.05 on unibet looks great, and I would price it 1.83.

    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

    in Portugal Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Académica x Olhanense: Académica & Under 2.5 @ 3.00 for a 0.35 stake (bet365) Académica are doing a good season after a rough start, and currently they are with their eyes on a possible entry on the Europa League. A win today is of much importance if they want to keep fighting for the european spot, which is at a distance of five points. Manager Sergio Conceição has to bounce back from a harsh loss at Benfica (0-3) for a team that is considered one of the best defensive performers of the league. However, they still lack something on the attack and prefer to play on the counter due to the speed on the wings (Salvador Agra, Marinho, Magique). Olhanense is last place on the league and even though they drew against Nacional on the last match (1-1 home), they are still not convincing enough and I just can't see another scenario than a relegation for them. Against some very consistent defensive performers, Olhanense scoring unless on a very lucky strike such as a 30-yard screamer or a penalty. They will possibly keep it tight at the back and try to play on the wings and grab some corners as it is their best chance, but on the wings there are the most dangerous Académica players... However, I feel that Académica might also have some trouble is scoring, and this all points out for an Under 2.5. As I think Académica will have the edge in scoring, this will be low-scoring, and Académica will win 1-0/2-0. Académica & Under 2.5 is available for 3.00 on bet365, with is some very good odds. Sporting Braga x Benfica: BTTS @ 2.00 for a 0.5 stake; Lima TSA @ 2.60 (bet365) for a 0.4 stake It is true that Braga are without some of the most important players. Nuno Andre Coelho, Baiano, Eder, Alan, Rafa, Custódio are all very important players that are out due to injuries. Benfica's odds completely steamed out, and someone pointed it out, and I think they will this match due to that. However, I don't think it will that easy an many are saying. SC Braga stadium is always a very difficult stadium for any team, and Benfica has had some trouble in the past years when playing here. Moreover, SC Braga is usually a team that wether they win, lose, or draw, knows how to score. They are scoring at home for 7 consecutives matches, and only failed to score in 2 of the 12 home matches. Braga is actually scoring in 13 consecutive matches! As they have all these injuries since the start of March, you can see that injuries are not stopping them for scoring. (but they are conceding a lot as well). Benfica's great form on the defense is falling apart from what I've seen against FC Porto, Nacional and Tottenham, they only managed some good stuff against Academica as Academica is not that great of a team on the attacking phase. I do feel Benfica will have the edge today and win, but SC Braga has a big scoring chance today, and BTTS @ 2.00 is available. Over 2.5 could also be considered @ 2.10. As a side-bet, I recommend you guys to do Lima TSA. A very good price for in-form striker, scored twiced against Académica and once against Tottenham and Nacional. Nacional x FC Porto: Over 2.5 @ 2.00 for a 0.5 stake (bet365) It is true that FC Porto's matches lately have been some Under 2.5 steamers, even against my opinion as I feel FC Porto are producing some good offensive stuff with the new manager. What is lacking is some good decisions in the final third. Nacional is one of the surprises of the season, with their counter-attacking 4-3-3 approach, producing some of the best counter-attacking moments in Europe since the start of the 13/14 season. The team is full of talented players (Miguel Rodrigues, Djaniny, Rondon, Goma, Candeias) as well, and has a good manager (Manuel Machado). This match has everything to pull itself wide open very quickly, specially if there is an early goal. FC Porto need to win to still believe in catching Sporting (now 8 points ahead after yesterday's win against Guimarães), and Nacional might create a bigger gap. Nacional has some good players upfront and knows how to counter-attack. They have some good defending processes, however they seem to lack the quality to sit deep and compact the players to avoid conceding, just as I've seen against Benfica. From the moment Benfica overloaded the Nacional final third with players, they conceded 3 in a row. FC Porto usually produces some good results against Nacional as well, so they might score once or twice. But their defense is still not at the desirable level, with the FC Porto CB's doing some terrible mistakes once in a while. Over 2.5 is my bet for this one.

    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

    in Portugal Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Will probably say something about Braga - Benfica tomorrow or Sunday morning. Think you might be underrating Braga and Benfica is not on a big away form. H2H doesn't favour Benfica, referee is usually Benfica opponent-biased, games in Braga are always very though. I would personally go for a BTTS or O2.5, but will talk about it later. One very risky bet for today: Belenenses - Paços de Ferreira: Belenenses @ 2.62 for a 0.5 stake I consider this one as a very risky bet but I do believe it will happen. This is a very decisive game for Belenenses. Belenenses are the last on the league (16º), and have a very tough schedule to avoid relegation. After Paços Ferreira, they play against direct relegation battle rival Gil Vicente (a), play against bad-form Guimarães (h) and have some 3 last difficult matches: Sporting (h), Estoril (a) and direct rivals in the relegation battle Arouca (h). To avoid relegation, they have to catch Paços de Ferreira (14º), today's opponent, which has 22 points. 5 point distance is a big one with 6 matches left, so this game has crucial importance for Belenenses. They have a new manager since last match (loss against FC Porto away 1-0), and the team showed some positive signs. Team looked very secure in the back and had some bad luck in not scoring in the first half. Midfield has A LOT of quality, with Tiago Silva, Fernando Ferreira and Miguel Rosa being three very talented players, which made a good match against FC Porto. New manager Lito Vidigal is an experienced one and surely motivated them enough for this decisive match. Full team except João Afonso (CB) is available. Paços Ferreira was on a tough position and new manager has to be praised for his work so far. They still can't have Andre Leao, their XI defensive midfielder, although I feel they won't miss him that much. They usually have some trouble while playing away, and I do expect it to happen today. This will surely be a tight one, but I do believe Belenenses will have the edge due to home factor and decisive match. Usually, the teams that are trying to avoid relegation usually give 150% in these sort of matches and I do believe it will happen today.

    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

    in Portugal Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 I would have to disagree with some of the views around here. You might just say that Benfica will win or at least qualify for the final (two legs), based on recent data and current season, but you truly have to consider other factors. First of all, you have to consider that Belenenses is a very hard team to crack. They have the 3rd best defense of the league when playing away, they know how to defend. Moreover, their coach was dismissed last week, new manager came in and there was a clear effect on the players motivation. Very hard to say that FC Porto was bad, especially in second half, it could have been 2 or 3. First half yes, they were poor, but IMO they were recovering from the emotional burst from the game against Napoli. Plus, Quaresma, Fernando and Danilo were out, 3 very important players. Second, Benfica is leading the league 7 points ahead of Sporting and 12 points ahead of FC Porto, FC Porto have absolutely no chance of winning the league, which might see them risk everything on the cups (Portugal Cup, League Cup and Europa League). Benfica have a great squad and are playing terrific football most of the times, but they usually stand with some mental issues against FC Porto. As we see Jorge Jesus steamrolling against other opponents, FC Porto is an opponent that already gave Jorge Jesus the biggest humiliations as a Benfica manager. For example, 5-0 (2010/2011), the 2-1 last season with a FC Porto goal on the 92' which gave them the league title, 1-3 in Estadio da Luz (after winning 0-2 on the first leg), 2-3 in Estadio da Luz (2011/2012)...Benfica players are full of confidence, that's true. But against FC Porto it's different. "Classicos" are a different kind of green, and it much different than most of you think. I think FC Porto will come in full pressure mode on and try to score early, scare Benfica and push them behind. FC Porto are not playing well for the most, however Luis Castro will surely know how to motivate the players enough to prove a point and win against Benfica. Based on the last game, I do feel Quintero will be on the X11, very creative and dangerous player, will give a lot of trouble alongside Quaresma (big form, just look up his goal against Napoli), Jackson Martinez and Varela. For me, the best bet for this game is a BTTS. FC Porto will want to win to throw all the pressure to Benfica for the second leg, while Benfica most probably will score because they ALWAYS score against everyone. I think that Jorge Jesus might only change Rodrigo for Cardozo, no rotation this time. Will also place a small bet on 2-1, as I feel it is the most possible result. BTTS @ 1.83 looks about right, and I would place half stake there because I think there will an early goal. If not, place another half stake when BTTS @ 2.00/2.10.

    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

    in Portugal Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Nacional has a lot of trouble on away games and Olhanense only manages to get some positive results at home. I personally would not touch it pre-live and would only jump in-play, depending on stats and live radio commentary. I do feel Nacional have the edge (better team, better players, better manager), though.

    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

    in Portugal Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Just took a look the stats of Vitoria - Gil Vicente...31 shots!!! 0 goals...:( Paços Ferreira - Arouca: BTTS @ 2.00 for a 0.50 stake (bet365) Paços Ferreira did an impressive win last round against Vitória Guimarães by 1-2, which made them breathe out from the relegation zone. Now, they will face at home a rival which fights for the same objectives of avoiding relegation. Arouca also won against Olhanense in the last round by 2-0. Both managers have already said that they want to dominate the match and win. I think that this one will be a very nervous game from side to side, and I do feel this may end up in a draw. However, Paços Ferreira games rarely end up in a dull 0-0. Can't see them not scoring, but I also can't see them conceding against Arouca, a team that is very intelligent up in the attack, and rarely don't score while playing away. They have scored in 6 sucessive away matches, and scored against FC Porto, Benfica and Sporting while away. This is very impressive. Paços Ferreira has André Leão (main defensive midfielder) ruled out for injury, and they haven't been that great while defending lately. I think the draw chance is very high and could be a bet to consider, but I'm just going for the less risky BTTS, which looks attractive at 2.00. Benfica - Academica: Under 2.5 @ 2.05 for a 0.50 stake (bet365) There is definite value on the Unders for Benfica - Academica. Benfica are on high form, haven't lost an official match since November (against Olympiakos away, 0-1), and after 10 sucessive wins, Tottenham put a stop on that winning streak with a 2-2 draw. Last championship match also saw Benfica stuttering a bit, in a 2-4 away win. Some worrying mental collapses. However, they are winning for the championship in 6 sucessive matches, and only drew twice at home, while the other games reveal wins, mainly by the 2-0 scoreline (5/11 games). They haven't conceded at home for 5 matches!! This is very impressive indeed. However, even though they do some great fast paced counter-attacking, they don't seem to score that many goals compared with last seasons. However, Academica is no ordinary team, as they are the 2nd best away team when it comes to defending. Only 8 goals conceded in 11 games and 0 goals conceded in the last 4 away games (including a game against Sporting Lisbon). On the other hand, they have only scored 6 goals in those 11 matches (3rd worst team on the league, on away matches). It will be very hard for Academica to score tomorrow against such a strong Benfica at home, when it comes to the championship. I do not think Benfica will have such a mental collapse as against Nacional or Tottenham, and will almost certainly keep a clean sheet here. Benfica usually starts the home games with a blast, trying to score early on. If Benfica doesn't manage to score early on against Academica, they be on for a lot of trouble for the rest of the game, and can't see them scoring more than 2 goals against such a very organized Académica side. Académica are a good team when it comes to defense, and have one of the best goalkeepers of the championship (Ricardo). The unders @ 2.05 look very tasty, based on all these factors. Vitoria Setubal - Estoril Praia: BTTS @ 2.00 for a 0.65 stake (bet365) This one is the best bet of the week, by a long margin. Match is only on Monday, though Both Vitoria Setubal and Estoril Praia are both in-form teams, alongside Benfica, Sporting and Academica. Vitoria Setubal are playing very attractive football, and have some very creative players up-front, such as Ricardo Horta and Rafael Martins, with are led by João Mário (future star in the making) in the midfield. They managed to draw against Sporting Lisbon at home 2 weeks ago, in a great football game, and won against Belenenses last week away (3-1) and shown a great display once again. On the other hand, Estoril is 4th placed and have a very good team and one of the best managers of the league. They always employ positive football, but while playing away they tend to use the counter-attacks to destroy oppositions. Plus, they are the most effective team of the league, as in my data I have them as the team who needs less shots to score a goal. They also have playmaker Evandro back on the team after suspension. Both teams will want to win here. Estoril wants to secure 4th spot and to keep on chasing FC Porto, which are 4 points ahead. Vitoria Setubal have been playing really well and the Europa League dream can start being a reality if they win on Monday. Estoril really defend well, and rarely don't score away (only didn't score against Belenenses and Benfica last match). I'm guessing this one will be a very hard-fought match, possible draw, but I can't see it ending goalless from both sides.

    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

    in Portugal Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Vitória Guimarães - Gil Vicente: Over 2.5 @ 2.15 for a 0.55 stake (bet365). It looks like the other way around, as Gil Vicente might just shut up shop as always, and Vitória Guimarães is really bad form. My model actually says that, currently, and considering goals and shot data, they are the team that's performing worst defensively in the last 6 games. They actually have conceded twice from the worst away team in the league in the past week, so that actually says a lot. However, they do have some weapons up front, with some of their players showing great signs of individual improvement, especially Maazou, Marco Matias and Crivellaro. Gil Vicente is a plain counter-attacking team. Their processes consists of low defensive line, and 3 quick players up front the launch dangerous counter-attacking moves. However, their defensive process is not the best, and the low defensive line and compactness compensates the lack of quality there. That's why they usually concede a lot. Still, they have been surprising in the past weeks, delivering 2 wins in the last 3 matches. Both teams don't defend that well, but have dangerous players upfront so I'm expecting much more shots on target than what could be expected from a O2.5 line @ 2.15. There is definite value here. Marítimo - Sporting: Islam Slimani To Score Anytime @ 2.75 for a 0.40 stake (bet365). After a very important win over rivals FC Porto, Sporting now have to go to Madeira to face Marítimo, who are a very strong team at home. Benfica and FC Porto have both lost here (2-1 and 1-0, respectively), so Sporting players are much warned about this and they will surely be advised to the dangerous players that Maritimo have upfront, mainly Derley and Danilo Dias, two great brazilians. However, they are quite leaky in defence when facing teams with good attacking processes. Model results are not conclusive, as Under 2.5 has high value in terms of goal expectancies. However, I can't really see tomorrow as an Unders game. And I actually think we might see Overs 2.5, as both teams are currently better off attacking than defending. Sporting will come up motivated enough to win it here, they are a very spirited side and will surely score once or twice. Striker Islam Slimani TSA odd still bothers me. He has scored one goal in the last 4 matches, and is the talisman of the team. He also has scored in 3 of the last 4 matches. I can see no reason for not backing him to score at least one goal at such 2.75 odds.

    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

    in Portugal Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Indeed. However, SC Braga has a lot of absences on the attack, and Rio Ave usually brings his "A" game against bigger teams at home. My model shows up correct pricing on most of the bookies, but maybe they are overevaluating the Braga absences, though. Only slight value on O2.5, with 2.2 showing up and 2.4/2.5 available in some bookies. I would say that game is a "no bet", but I placed a small stake on BTTS as I think this could end up 1-1.

    Europa League > Thursday March 20th

    in Europa League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Europa League > Thursday March 20th

    Benfica v Tottenham (Benfica lead 3-1 from the first leg) Just some thoughts about this one ... By all accounts, Benfica were easily the better team in the first leg last Thursday. With their strong home record, they are theoretically good value at odds of 1.75 at home. The trouble is, psyschology often comes into play in the second legs of two-legged ties, with a team which is leading sometimes doing 'just enough' to go through. I could imagine Spurs going for it (they need to score at least 3 goals). But Benfica's defence is strong. I'm not sure where the value is in this game at the moment.
    Careful there. Tottenham are awful but work better away than at home. Benfica had a tough match today against Nacional, and didn't look that good on defence. Jorge Jesus might rotate a bit in midfield. I would get on that 1.75, don't see any value there.

    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

    in Portugal Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

    JuMeSyn' date=' How do you think on Benfica today? will them same like porto, because of tiring of the Europa ?[/quote'] I'm sorry as I didn't have the time to come here. And I'm glad I didn't move on that one, but I would hardly would have done any bet there. I was predicting a 0-1/0-2 win but the early Nacional goal changed the game completely. Benfica are on another level, totally true. And they actually had a very bad start in the season. The individual quality they possess is miles away from any other club in Portugal, IMO they are even top-16 in Europe. They were really unlucky not to go through on the CL, but they might just win the Europa League or so. I think only Juventus/Fiorentina or Red Bull Salzburg may stop them.

    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

    in Portugal Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 I recommend you to avoid that particular match. Belenenses haven't scored in 5 consecutives matches for now. Last 10 games, they have only scored 2 goals in a 1 game (!!!) strange enough, they actually don't attack that bad. They just don't have a good striker. However, on the other hand, Setúbal has 5 consecutives away losses and managed to do a very good exhibition against Sporting Lisbon the week before. It's very hard to predict something here, complete gamble. But I think that the team who scores first will win here. However, my model says that all value is on Setúbal. But obviously, calcutating goal expectancy with a team that does not score nor concede (Belenenses) gives away some weird results. The model also gives big value on Unders 1.5, but this could be well overestimated, so I recommend caution and small stakes.

    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

    in Portugal Football Predictions

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    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Voided bet in Académica x Braga. Arouca - Olhanense: Arouca @ 1.95 for a 0.75 stake. Both teams fight to avoid relegation, with Arouca on 13th (19 points) and Olhanense on 15th (17 points). Both teams are in awful moments of form. Arouca has 2 consecutives losses against FC Porto (1-4 away) and Academica (0-3 home). Although Academica was a really bad game from them, they've shown some good stuff in the first half against FC Porto. Also, before both games, Arouca went on 4 consecutives draws, most of them against hard teams (including Sp.Braga (a), Estoril (a), Nacional (h)). Arouca has a minor absence, and has played 3 matches at home against teams below 10th place, recording 2 wins and 1 draw. Olhanense is still to win an away match. They have 5 consecutives away losses, and are in real pressure to avoid relegation. Winning tomorrow could be very important, but I can't it happening. They are not playing well at all, sometimes ultra - defensive thanks to his Italian manager, and they also will have 4 important absences: Dionisi (scored 4 of 14 total goals of Olhanense), Femi (main team winger), Lucas Souza (main team box-to-box midfielder), Rui Duarte (main team, midfielder and captain). Santana (ex-Genoa) still can't play due to injury. These absences will definitely make a difference, not only because of their importance, but also due to the bad bench Olhanense have. Team will probably try to get the ball to Paulo Sergio (quick winger) as much as possible. This will be a tight match, maybe we will only to see a winner in the final minutes. Both teams know the importance of this game, and a single error might cost too much. However, I do believe that Arouca will have the edge, not only because they have the home factor, but because Olhanense are missing 4 important players. Sporting Lisbon - FC Porto - DNB Sporting Lisbon @ 2.00 for a 0.60 stake. The classico of this matchday is decisive in defining the 2nd place and is surrounded by some bad atmosphere between both clubs and between the referees and Sporting Lisbon which is not good for the beautiful game. Moreover, the nominated referee is Porto-biased, but due to so much pressure, he will make a VERY defensive exhibition tomorrow. Or he will play it british, which will benefit Sporting, or he will just point out foul after foul, which will benefit FC Porto aerial strength (Mangala, Fernando, Abdoulaye, Jackson Martinez). Sporting Lisbon drew 2-2 against Vitória Setúbal in a hard-fought match 1 week ago, and did a very poor exhibition. They are losing the quality they've shown in the first half of the season, game after game. Team is looking very inflexible and dependent of the direct play towards the talisman (Slimani) and of the big player William Carvalho. Some exhibitions before weren't also convincing. FC Porto is gaining momentum after dismissing Paulo Fonseca. New manager Luis Castro boosted the players confidence for a 4-1 win against Arouca and a 1-0 win over Napoli in the Europa League. They are still looking quite unstable in their defensive line and still can't build play from behind, and effective pressure in the middle might break them apart in some moments. However, they have 2 great wingers (Quaresma and Varela) and a big striker (Jackson Martinez) which will surely damage Sporting. Careful also with set-pieces, FC Porto might have advantage there. FC Porto usually have a lot of trouble in Sporting Lisbon home. It is usually their worst away stadium in terms of results. Recent historical data points out the 0-0 draw as the most possible result as well. Last 5 matches saw 3 0-0 draws, 1 1-1 draw and a Sporting 3-0 win. I think we might see a draw here, although I really see no value there. However, I'm hopeful that Sporting might just marginally win it. Sporting last results may just not matter, classicos and derbies are a different kind of games. They're playing at home, the atmosphere will be intense and still have to lose at home this season. FC Porto may accuse some fatigue from the Napoli game and may have trouble in handling the atmosphere.

    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

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    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 1/3 on last week. Quite unlucky on Benfica - Estoril, Estoril managed to hit the bar on last minute :( well, moving forward, today there's one interesting one: Académica x Sporting Braga - DNB Académica @ 2.5 for 2/3 stake Académica surely are surprising everyone with such great results lately and are now in the decisive fight for European spots. In the last 7 games, Académica had 6 clean sheets mainly due to great exhibitions not only from their compact and united defensive line, but also due to GK Ricardo, which is currently the 2nd best portuguese GK. The only team that managed to score one goal against them was 4th place Estoril (L 0-1) However, they haven't been that effective on the attack as well, and only managed to score against Arouca (3-0 away win) and against Gil Vicente (1-0 home win), with the rest being 0-0 dull draws. Salvador Agra and Makelele are important players that are back on the called-ups and will surely be on the XI squad. Maybe Agra on the bench. Sp. Braga has a new manager for 2 weeks now. Jorge Paixão managed to get the whole team's motivation back up after a 1-2 loss against Sporting Lisbon and managed to scrape a hard-fought win against 5th place Nacional, at home (2-1). However, team is still lacking stability at the back and Alan, Eder and Rafa Silva are absent from this game. Three very important players in the attacking dynamic. I feel Braga will really miss them, even though they have Rusescu and Pardo up front, the midfield is not creative enough to create chances for them. Académica will keep it tight at the back, and will managed to score one at least, and I can't see them losing here. A DNB on them @ 2.50 are good odds, and it started as DNB 3.00 5 days ago when the markets opened up.

    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

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    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Vitória Setúbal x Sporting Lisbon - Over 2.5 @ 2.05 for a 0.80 stake (b365) Sporting needs to win to keep on chasing Benfica which is 5 points ahead. They have Montero and Adrien (two very important players) back on the team after being suspended. They will add quality to the team offensive processes. Vitória Setúbal has scored in almost every home game since Jose Couceiro took over (only didn't score against Benfica), and Sporting defense has been quite leaky lately, home and away. Against harder opponents, Setúbal has a lot of trouble in not conceding, both at home and away. There are clear indicators here for a Over 2.5, and it looks value at 2.05 while I make it around the 1.90 mark. Plus, for betfair users, I think Sporting will have to fight hard to win it, but they might just deliver the win in the second half final moments, just like it has happened in the last few games. I think laying Setubal or backing Sporting at 70' of Setubal winning or draw might yield a positive outcome. SL Benfica x Estoril Praia - BTTS @ 2.10 for a 0.75 stake (b365) Since the departure of Matic, Fesja took his spot and Benfica lost some attacking depth, even though they always manage to score at home (scored in every single home league match one this season and on the last season), so I think it is safe to assure that Benfica will definitely score. They also don't concede for 4 consecutive home matches, and only conceded 1 goal in the past 10 official games which is very impressive. However, Estoril might just score one as they are a team who knows how to score against any opponent with their impressive away counter-attacking approaches. They have one of the best coaches in the league, and Benfica had a lot of trouble against them in the October, although they won 2-1, and Estoril only didn't score away against Belenenses in a dull 0-0 draw. They recently won against FC Porto away (1-0), as well, inflicting the first FC Porto league home defeat in the last 5 years. For the Europa League, Estoril scored in every away match, even against hard opponents as Friburg or Sevilla. I really believe Estoril has what it takes to surprise today and BTTS has some value at 2.10 while I rate it 1.90. Olhanense x Belenenses - Olhanense @ 2.70 for a 0.35 stake (b365) Both teams are fighting for avoiding relegation. Belenenses is that awful away team there is in every championship, and They haven't scored an away goals for more than 8 matches (!!). They still haven't won an away game, and although this one might break that curse because Olhanense is an awful team, they look the much better team at the moment. I frankly rate Olhanense the worst team of the league, but new manager and 3 quality players that came from Italy in the January window (Santana, Obodo, Paulo Sergio) gave a positive impact to the team, with good home performances against Maritimo (draw) and Gil Vicente (win). Both teams will want to win this one and a frankly think the Overs should be much lower because both teams will want to score to win, although a Olhanense 1-0 goal might see them defend the result since that moment and shut up shop. This sums up for an Olhanense win.

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