JuMeSyn
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Posts posted by JuMeSyn
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Vitória Setúbal x Sporting Lisbon - Over 2.5 @ 2.05 for a 0.80 stake (b365) Sporting needs to win to keep on chasing Benfica which is 5 points ahead. They have Montero and Adrien (two very important players) back on the team after being suspended. They will add quality to the team offensive processes. Vitória Setúbal has scored in almost every home game since Jose Couceiro took over (only didn't score against Benfica), and Sporting defense has been quite leaky lately, home and away. Against harder opponents, Setúbal has a lot of trouble in not conceding, both at home and away. There are clear indicators here for a Over 2.5, and it looks value at 2.05 while I make it around the 1.90 mark. Plus, for betfair users, I think Sporting will have to fight hard to win it, but they might just deliver the win in the second half final moments, just like it has happened in the last few games. I think laying Setubal or backing Sporting at 70' of Setubal winning or draw might yield a positive outcome. SL Benfica x Estoril Praia - BTTS @ 2.10 for a 0.75 stake (b365) Since the departure of Matic, Fesja took his spot and Benfica lost some attacking depth, even though they always manage to score at home (scored in every single home league match one this season and on the last season), so I think it is safe to assure that Benfica will definitely score. They also don't concede for 4 consecutive home matches, and only conceded 1 goal in the past 10 official games which is very impressive. However, Estoril might just score one as they are a team who knows how to score against any opponent with their impressive away counter-attacking approaches. They have one of the best coaches in the league, and Benfica had a lot of trouble against them in the October, although they won 2-1, and Estoril only didn't score away against Belenenses in a dull 0-0 draw. They recently won against FC Porto away (1-0), as well, inflicting the first FC Porto league home defeat in the last 5 years. For the Europa League, Estoril scored in every away match, even against hard opponents as Friburg or Sevilla. I really believe Estoril has what it takes to surprise today and BTTS has some value at 2.10 while I rate it 1.90. Olhanense x Belenenses - Olhanense @ 2.70 for a 0.35 stake (b365) Both teams are fighting for avoiding relegation. Belenenses is that awful away team there is in every championship, and They haven't scored an away goals for more than 8 matches (!!). They still haven't won an away game, and although this one might break that curse because Olhanense is an awful team, they look the much better team at the moment. I frankly rate Olhanense the worst team of the league, but new manager and 3 quality players that came from Italy in the January window (Santana, Obodo, Paulo Sergio) gave a positive impact to the team, with good home performances against Maritimo (draw) and Gil Vicente (win). Both teams will want to win this one and a frankly think the Overs should be much lower because both teams will want to score to win, although a Olhanense 1-0 goal might see them defend the result since that moment and shut up shop. This sums up for an Olhanense win.
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Re: Australian Open 2014 Looks like someone is giving Torque some credit. One of the great tipsters around here, it's a very volatile and unusual method, but one has to give him credit on finding these upsets :)
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Re: Australian Open 2014 The Nadal -6.5 Games must have been the pick of the year so far. 1.83 for such -6.5 games handicap was really, really big. Should have been 1.30 or something.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Estoril - Sporting - Over 2.5 @ 2.00 Game is in 1 hour and half, so be sure to jump in as soon as possible. Sporting has always scored at least once in away matches. Actually, Sporting didn't score for the 14 matchdays once: against Nacional, in the last match. Actually, they scored, but the ref has disallowed it in a very controversial (and wrong) way. They have the best attack of the league, and I'm sure they will score at least once or twice. Estoril Praia are a team that doesn't change they style of playing based on the team they are facing, and they have a very good manager. They gave a lot of trouble to FC Porto and Benfica (2-2 and 1-2, respectively), and Sevilla and Friburg had a very hard time against them in Liga Europa. They are a very good team, and that is why they are in the fourth place. They dominate against lower teams and can fight against bigger teams. They usually know how to score, and O2.5 and O1.5 Team Goals at home are good enough. I think they will be a threat since the start so we can see some goals from them. I would say odds should be the other way around, with U/O at 2.00/1.80, so there is definitely value here.
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers European Play-Offs > Tuesday November 19th Sweden - Portugal Portugal go to Sweden with a very important 1-0 advantage. Some call this advantage a slim one, while I must say it is a very important advantage, as Portugal didn't get to suffer any goals. That will play against Sweden, as I feel that Portugal will score at least once. The first game revealed a Portuguese Team that is much, much better than the Swedish, without disrespect. The Swedes had some chances at the start of the match, but since then, Portugal dominated the game. The possession was close to 65% as Portugal had the best chances in the second half. A very deep and concentrated Swedish defense was able to cover every attacking move until Ronaldo broke the deadlock at 82'. Portugal had a big chance at 85', but crashed against the bar. The Swedes will have to open up since the first minute. I expect a Swedish team performing kick-and-rush like no tomorrow, with the defensive line less deeper and players with more offensive mentality. That will surely open up the back, and with such slow central-defenders and central-midfielders that only work well in a deep unit, they will have to rely in last minute interceptions and Isaksson's handling and reflexes. Portugal works much better playing as a counter-attacking unit when they face team that risk too much in the attacking processes. They did so with Netherlands (Euro 2012), and against Israel away (watch Postiga's goal that made it 2-3). If Ronaldo has 1/2 chances in open play, I can't see him miss. Also, he is very strong on FK and corners. On the other hand, we have a Swedish Team with nothing to lose, and with Ibra upfront, and at home, fireworks are very, very possible. They are also very strong on free-kicks, and have good set piece takers (Elm, Kallstrom, Larsson, Ibra), so they will probably try to get some fouls near the edge of the area. They don't seem to have that much depth in terms of crossing opportunities as I feel the wing-backs will stay deep, scared of Portugal's counter-attacking possible approach in the first 30 minutes. Another very important stat: in the last 137 Portugal official matches, Portugal has only lost twice by a 2-goal deficit (1-3 Germany WC 2006 and 0-2 Switzerland Euro 2008). Stats usually confirm that Portugal is not an easy team to beat, and always takes it until the last minute. I expect that Portugal will not lose this by a 2-goal deficit, so the Swedes best chances is to nack a 1-0 and take it to OT and penalties :) Although I feel Portugal will qualify, I layed the Portugal to qualify on betfair with some big money, only to cover the sadness of no qualification with money :p as Portugal will score at least once, and Sweden will have to attack since first minutes, I expect at least two goals and I think we might see a third goal, so my main bet is Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 with 70% confidence.
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers European Play-Offs > Tuesday November 19th Iceland to qualify @ 4.50 is big value, currently. May just explain my point of view later, coupled with my bet for Sweden - Portugal.
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers European Play-Offs > Tuesday November 19th Ukraine has such a great team. I can actually see them scoring once in France, although I feel that after 30' minutes mark and 0-0, they will shut up shop until 90, trying to hold the 0-0.
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers European Play-Offs - Friday November 15th
completely fake.Ronaldo will not play because he is injured -
Re: Olympiacos v Benfica > Tuesday November 5th You should have watched Benfica - Olympiakos then. Benfica were very, VERY lucky to have escaped with a draw. If Olympiakos play as good as 2 weeks ago, and boosted by the home crowd, I can only see one winner. However, I feel Benfica might score once, at least. Very attacking team and needs to win, so they need to score. BTTS @ 1.83 looks very solid.
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Re: Benfica v Olympiacos > Wednesday October 23rd
Somebody who is seen Benfica matches lately maybe can comment on their form? In domestic league they're third collecting 14 points from 7 games (4-2-1). Olympiacos 22 from 8 (7-1-0). These leagues aren't much comparable but looks like Olympiacos is in good goalscoring form at the moment. Last 8 out of 10 away games they have scored 19 goals and Benfica is decent scoring at home in 9 out of 10 last games but also conceding in 9 games out of 10. I'm going for BTTS@1' date='75 on my local bookmaker and maybe [email protected]. It's my first post, so comments on this are very welcome![/quote'] BTTS is surely a great odd here at ~ 1.80 in most oddmakers. Over 2.5 @ 2.00 is also VERY tempting, because because usually know how to score at least twice at home, and as Olympiakos will possibly score one...Benfica has some awful defending and a team who knows how to attack completely dismantels Benfica's defensive line. However, they changed their system from a 4-4-2 to a sort of 4-2-2-2. Fesja is a new player and now plays next to Matic. Benfica wins a lot in terms of defensive consistency, but loses too much on the offensive process. A team which keeps itself defending well, with short width and high aerial strength can easily stop them. I can actually see an upset here, today. Although I feel Benfica will win something like 2-1, if Olympiakos are smart enough in attack and consistent in defence, they can pull the upset. Benfica has been quite unconvincing so far, some players also look somewhat not motivated to work under Jorge Jesus coaching after that heartbreaking May of last season. Cardozo was about to leave for disrespecting Jorge Jesus in May's last official game and ended up as a main players once again, so rumours mill say that some players lost confidence in Jorge Jesus mainly because of that. I don't recommend hitting the X2 with high stakes. But something > 2 is definitely value with 30-40% confidence. -
Re: International Friendlies > 2013 Jesus, Japan is the moodiest team ever.
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Re: International Friendlies > 2013 Japan - Uruguay Game starts in 40 minutes, so I'll try to be quick. Japan won the East Asian Cup some 2/3 weeks ago, and were praised by their attacking abilities. They always scored 2 goals at least in the 3 matches. Against China and Australia they scored 3, in the "final" against Korea Republic they scored 2. For those who saw the Confederations Cup, you have also noticed that Japan are quite a good attacking team. However, their defensive rating is quite bad as well, which can see them concede here somehow. Uruguay which that strong players upfront (Forlan, Suarez start) may also do some damage. But Uruguay since change from 3-4-3 to 4-3-3 didn't manage to do justice to the team that made a surprise at the WC 2010. Uruguay are playing in Japan, and a long trip has been done by some players, which may feel tired and may feel the big moisture in Japan attacking their legs and lungs. Therefore, I'm going for 3 bets here: Japan - Over 1.5 and Japan - Over 2.5 (bet365). Odds have lowered now, though. Over 1.5 - Japan and Over 2.5 - Japan were 2.37 and 6.00, respectively. Japan Over 1.5 @ 2.25 (60%) Japan Over 2.5 @ 5.50 (25%) Portugal - Netherlands Portugal is playing with in-form Netherlands, and this game screams goals all over. Even though Portugal doesn't have important players like Nani and Moutinho, it is a sure thing that a goal will eventually appear from them. Pepe and Bruno Alves are back, and although it may help the defense in stopping the Dutch attacks, I also think they will have no problem scoring here, making BTTS very possible. Would jump in if 1.80, maybe it is a good idea to wait 5 minutes to hit the 1.80. Other than that, Portugal usually win against the Dutch, but I can see Portugal having more trouble around this time. Still think Portugal will be able to score at least twice. Portugal - Over 1.5 @ 2.25
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Re: Europa League > Thursday 8th Augist Estoril should have no problem disposing of Ramat Gan. But I still will watch the first 5 minutes before doing any moves.
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Re: July 15 - July 21 Incredible how Berlocq took that one.
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Re: July 15 - July 21 Yes, Bogota is in hard court. Common mistake around the punting community since yesterday, and I was actually tricked by that as well. Glad I didn't do any outright bet, possibly will wait until tomorrow to do anything.
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Re: July 8 - July 14 Still having some thoughts about it, to be honest. Hewitt may as well win this one, and Hewitt is in really good form in this grass season, even if sort of disappointing at Wimbledon. But Isner is looking really tight on his serve. Hewitt is a great returner but Isner is in the zone right now in terms of serve. And if it gets to tie-break, Isner will win them. Will watch a bit of the game and check out how is Hewitt responding to Isner's serve. Will try to do it inplay.
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Re: July 8 - July 14 Holy sh*t Dimitrov :o
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Re: July 8 - July 14 Wouldn't say Isner is a sure final. He usually has a lot of difficulties against players that are much more gifted technically and hold well his strong serve and hide his forehand. I will definitely lay him against Hewitt, should they meet. Hewitt looked very impressive against Amritraj (62 61) and is one of the best returners in the ATP circuit. Also, can see Karlovic wanting it more than Isner, as Karlovic need to get the most points possible to get up in the rankings ahead of the US Open. For me, this will go Hewitt/Mahut/Sijsling winner. I have the outright bet on Sijsling. Looks like he has recovered from his flu. Was good value pre-tournament. But I wouldn't be surprised of Hewitt snatching it.
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Re: Wimbledon 2013 Took that 2.37 @ Bet365 for Over 2.5 Sets as well. Looks quite value, can't this as a straight sets match for any of the players. Will surely go the distance.
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Re: Wimbledon 2013 Don't forget that Del Potro won the bronze medal here last here, against Djokovic, and after a very hard semi - final against Roger Federer... Can't see him winning, but Czech's bet for their games looks a possible back for me, can really see Del Potro snatching a set.
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Re: Wimbledon 2013 Was going to do a pick on Haas for tomorrow, but Torque's point of view is my point of view. Haas is on 2009 form. Last year he was on great form as well, but Kohls dropped him in first round in a epic five setter that could have gone either way. I'm quite confident that Haas might win tomorrow.
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Re: Fifa Under 20 World Cup Turkey 2013 Speaking of Portugal, as I'm watching all of the games: The main attraction is Bruma, a 18 year old boy from Sporting Lisbon who is being the player of the tournament alongside Jese and Deulofeu. Has 18 years old, less 2 than the usual, and already looks a notch above 99% of the players in this tournament. Has 5 goals and 3 assists, which is quite incredible. Team looks very dependent on him, however, and a good team that blocks his moves completely can make Portugal collapse. However, I can only see Spain and Colombia doing it. Still, this generation has a lot a talent in midfield and attack: João Mário is a central midfielder that reminds me of a mix between Pirlo and Scholes in the style of play. Very mature and great tactical mind. Tozé is a very creative player, knows how to get to the area. Tiago Silva is a supersub, however he should be a first team. Ricardo and Esgaio are good wingers as well. Aladje is a big striker, not great technically but knows how to score, and low physical defenders may face problems with him. The main problem is the defence. The GK is good enough, and Tiago Ilori will be a star, but the team processes on the back are awful. Portugal doesn't know how to control a match or to hold a lead as well, was winning 2-0 against Nigeria and 1-0 and 2-1 Korea and what happened? They drew 2-2. We got to win against Nigeria but they could have scored the 3-3... Still, I think Portugal may surpass 1/8 and 1/4. The team looks fully motivated, and has no problem in scoring goals and I think we will score at least one goal in every match we play. Ghana is strong, gave Spain and France some problems, but I think Portugal has the edge.
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Re: Wimbledon 2013 Simona Halep x Na Li Simona Halep @ 2.50 (70% confidence) What could be backed at 2.75 at least yesterday, now can only be backed at 2.50. Simona Halep is on top notch form, winning all the tennis. Won 2 consecutive WTA titles (Nurnberg - Clay and Den Bosch - Grass), and while fatigue may start being a problem, she doesn't look like stopping for now. Although not the biggest grass player, she's feeling in the zone and can fight for the result against any opponent right now. Well, maybe except Serena. I disagree when people say Na Li is awful on grass. Not her best surface, yes, but pre-2011 she got to finals and even won one (Birmingham 2010 against Sharapova). Also produced quarters-finals of Wimbledon that year. Her movement compensates for a lack of technical ability in grass environments, but she isn't so bad at the net. However, her trust in net-play she acquired in doubles pre-2010 has been lacking since then. In 2011 and 2012, she crashed at Wimbledon's 2nd round. Her season started off well, with an Australian Open final, but was surprisingly eliminated at RG 2nd Round against an on-form Jelena Jankovic. Halep leads H2H 1-0, when she produced an upset at US Open 2011 (62 75). This one may be not be a total upset, and odds are lower right now, but still value betting on Halep. Giving more confidence here than what I think it should be (60%), because Na Li has the weapons to defeat Halep, but Halep's form is too good to be ignored. Milos Raonic x Igor Sisling Igor Sisling @ 3.10 (50% confidence) This one is quite obvious, and only because I consider that Milos Raonic is complete bet-against for a long time now. His movement still lacks in grass courts, especially, where the game expects him to be faster in attacking the ball, which he can only do with his serve. Also on bad form, as well, lost in first rounds of Eastbourne and Halle against Dodig and Monfils, respectively. I only didn't bet against him in the first round because he got drawn against Carlos Berlocq, which turns into a top-500 player in grass. Sisling actually looked good at Queens, and lost to Tsonga in three tight sets. Won against Kuznetsov 63 64 64 in the first round. Has a good serve, and I agree with the post above that gives him the upper hand on the baseline. Can't be hard, after all he is facing Raonic. Raonic best bet is to hope for unforced errors from Sisling or push it to tie-breaks. Can see the supposed underdog winning this one. Olga Puchkova x Samantha Stosur Olga Puchkova @ 7.00 (25% confidence) Bloody wednesday leftovers? Samantha Stosur record in grass in unempressive, and usually falls down in Wimbledon at round 1/round 2 against big underdogs. Not having her best season as well in all aspects, from Grand Slams crashes in early rounds and no titles at all. Olga Puchkova has her best results in hard surfaces. However, her first win in grass was against Arantxa Rus, in first round, 2 days ago. She always neglected the surface, but I can clearly see Olga pushing this one to 3-setter and maybe even winning it. Not by her own merit, but because I can see Stosur being quite erratic, and pushed to pressure for being the big favourite after a day like yesterday. Low stakes recommended here. --- All bets are bet365.
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Re: Wimbledon 2013 Lots of players withdrawing...Azarenka out, Isner out, Darcis out.
Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14
in Portugal Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 1/3 on last week. Quite unlucky on Benfica - Estoril, Estoril managed to hit the bar on last minute :( well, moving forward, today there's one interesting one: Académica x Sporting Braga - DNB Académica @ 2.5 for 2/3 stake Académica surely are surprising everyone with such great results lately and are now in the decisive fight for European spots. In the last 7 games, Académica had 6 clean sheets mainly due to great exhibitions not only from their compact and united defensive line, but also due to GK Ricardo, which is currently the 2nd best portuguese GK. The only team that managed to score one goal against them was 4th place Estoril (L 0-1) However, they haven't been that effective on the attack as well, and only managed to score against Arouca (3-0 away win) and against Gil Vicente (1-0 home win), with the rest being 0-0 dull draws. Salvador Agra and Makelele are important players that are back on the called-ups and will surely be on the XI squad. Maybe Agra on the bench. Sp. Braga has a new manager for 2 weeks now. Jorge Paixão managed to get the whole team's motivation back up after a 1-2 loss against Sporting Lisbon and managed to scrape a hard-fought win against 5th place Nacional, at home (2-1). However, team is still lacking stability at the back and Alan, Eder and Rafa Silva are absent from this game. Three very important players in the attacking dynamic. I feel Braga will really miss them, even though they have Rusescu and Pardo up front, the midfield is not creative enough to create chances for them. Académica will keep it tight at the back, and will managed to score one at least, and I can't see them losing here. A DNB on them @ 2.50 are good odds, and it started as DNB 3.00 5 days ago when the markets opened up.