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four-leaf

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  1. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from CzechPunter in US Open 2016   
    Alessandro Giannessi/Stan Wawrinka under 27.5 games 1.90 bet365
    Stan ranked 3 beat Fernando Verdasco in round one and played some really solid stuff against a dangerous opponent who had beaten him before but Stan played a perfect match and was'nt broken once. Stan had some problems with his back before and had to pass on the olympics but he's showed now that his back is fine again. To be in second round for Alessandro who is ranked 243 it's a great result. He passed through qualies and beat Denis Kudla in 5 sets in round one. His best result in his entire career. Alessandro is ofcourse not not even close to Stans calibre and will most likely be finished off in 3 quick sets. For Stan the goal is to finish the game as quick as possible and get some rest for round 3.
  2. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Robinnho in US Open 2016   
    Qiang Wang to beat Yaroslava Shvedova @2.15 with Unibet
    Qiang looked fitter than ever after winning ITF Wuhan and disposed off Daria Kasatkina in style 2 days ago.    
  3. Like
    four-leaf reacted to neilovan in US Open 2016   
    For me Lendl is the catalyst for Murray's resurgence. He just stops his nonsense, period. Murray was getting to the point of ridicule for his outbursts towards  Delgado and  Mauresmo.  Lendl doesn't tolerate it for a second, and it is showing. For me Murray is the only one of the top 4 that has grown as a player in the last 12 months. Novak has peaked. Federer is a fading star, Nadal is brutalizing his body to a point of breakdown. He had this terrible weakness of starting slowly, and drifting in matches. Does not happen any more. Next few years is Murray time !
  4. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from CzechPunter in US Open 2016   
    Kei Nishikori/Karen Khachanov over 29.5 games at 1.90 with bet365
    Easy pick here. Kei won in first round against Benjamin Becker 3-1. And once again as huge favorite to win, can actually say absolute favorite, from point of view of bookmakers, but in my opinion it wasn't that way because I was worried Becker would be able to take a set so I kept myself away from the match.
    Now considering that he will have to play against young fella Karen, most talented upcoming russian player for now who is progressing really fast, currently 95th on ATP list and playing some really good tennis, has an awesome serve, tall (198 cm), with explosive forehand, massive plays. So I believe he can pressure and parry Kei easily from time to time and I acctually think Khachanov will have his chances to take a set here. So picking over 29.5 games which might even come in without Karen taking a set.
  5. Like
    four-leaf reacted to neilovan in US Open 2016   
    Was looking at the head 2 head for David Ferrer v Fognini. Ferrer holds a 9-0 record . He has beaten him in straight sets the last 4 meetings. It's a terrible matchup for Fognini, because they play a similar style, and Ferrer will outlast him easily. 
     
    Tsonga and Anderson match. Having watched the Pospisil v Anderson game, it was bizarre to see how well Anderson served on the big points. He would just bazooka Pospisil with three bombs, whenever the guy had a sniff. The man is a giraffe (6ft 8), and it's ridiculous to return 133mph bombs, delivered from that height. It's a combination of speed, height and angle. The huge advantage these guys have,  especially serving 1st, is they know they can hold their serve, so they have a 'freedom' to attack the opponents serve (Del Potro simiilar).  Anderson is very similar to Isner, but moves much better (Cilic is similar but better than both of them). I think it also may throw Tsonga off his game, where he tries to match serving power/speed (it's like playing golf against someone who hits it 30 meters past you every drive...your tendency is to hit the ball harder) . For me the 2.83 on Anderson to win here is the bet of the round.
     
    Marin Cilic v Sock. Cilic all day here. He is just floating through matches, quick straight sets, gone. Reminds me of the adverts that they used to run at WImbledon time when Pete Sampras was dominating.  GET SET, GET SET, GET SET , GO !  He is also a giant (6ft 6) in the prime of his life  . His form is unreal, coming off a win in Cincinnati, which is so similar to NY weather wise (beating Murray, Dimitrov, Coric, Berdych, Verdasco, Troicki for an $800k payday ). Cilic has won the last 8 sets he has played .  
     
    I have a strange feeling that Novak is really going to struggle with Youzny. I think Youzny could easily win at least 1 set. Not sure if the walkover against Vesely really helped Djokovic that much. He would have liked to work in a solid win, but is probably grateful for no wear on the tires. Youzny has nothing to lose here, and that makes him dangerous. Also, when he wants he can really play !
     
  6. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in US Open 2016   
    Back Marcos Baghdatis to beat Benoit Paire at 1.57 with Skybet
    I might love Paire for his character, but he hasn't been made for this longer format, as he just seems unable to keep his focus throughout. He was on the verge of losing against Lajovic in the first round before the Serb started to cramp, but that probably isn't going to happen to Baghdatis, who saved a lot of energy against Bagnis and who's played very decently in recent times as well. Baghdatis may be the less talented player of the two, but he's got both form and attitude on his side here.
    Back Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Caroline Wozniacki at 1.44 with Skybet
    Unless she gets injured, Kuznetsova isn't losing this given how the two are playing at the moment. Wozniacki has been a train-wreck recently and her decision to fire her coach two days before the US Open speaks volumes about where she's at. Kuznetsova, on the other hand, is having some sort of a renaissance season and she's also on a winning streak against Woz, having already beaten her in this year's Wimbledon. Also - while the Russian strolled past Schiavone in the first round, Wozniacki could've lost against Townsend.
    Back Monica Niculescu to beat Ana Bogdan at 1.50 with BetVictor
    In all honesty, Bogdan is very lucky to still be here, as Cirstea had something like 6-0 5-2 against her in the first round before collapsing. Niculescu, on the other hand, upset Barbora Strycova and this is a match she should like from the match-up point of view, as Bogdan doesn't seem to be the best of movers. She can play well, no doubts about that, but Niculescu will draw the unforced errors from her more often than not and that should be the deciding factor in the end.
    Back Ryan Harrison to beat Milos Raonic at 9.00 with Ladbrokes
    In theory, Raonic should just stroll through this one and I wouldn't be shocked if he did, but I feel that Harrison has a decent chance here considering how well he's been playing recently. He will always be lacklustre, but he's got an uncanny ability to get a surprise against the big guys every now and then and this is an excellent chance for him imo. He's already beaten Cilic in this season, he's also taken a set off Berdych, he's playing at home and Raonic has done nothing noteworthy since Wimbledon, so, all in all, this feels more like a 5.00 shot than a 9.00 one. Not sure about the handicap or the overs, as Raonic can crush Harrison, but, if the American makes it a game, it should be a good one.
  7. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in US Open 2016   
    Back Katerina Siniakova to beat Caroline Garcia at 2.62 with Paddy Power
    Garcia could've easily lost against Parmentier in the previous round, while Siniakova was finding her shots nicely against Bouchard. It's now time for the talented Czech to step up and make a good run - and this is the ideal chance really, as she was able to beat Garcia in Wimbledon a few months ago. That was when Garcia was playing better, so I don't see Siniakova as the underdog here in all honesty.
    Back Montserrat Gonzalez (+6.5) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.80 with Paddy Power
    Too high a line in my opinion. I backed Gonzalez against Kovinic in the previous round and I still believe that she's under-rated, especially now that she has a win under her belt, which should settle the nerves. Pliskova is notorious for not caring too much about these matches and she has never done well in the Grand Slams either - strange, but true. With Gonzalez living her dream and swinging freely, I like the chances of this not being a beatdown.
    Back Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 1.57 with Skybet
    Good odds for the straight win in my opinion, Mladenovic wasn't too exciting against Hibino and I think that she's going to fall at this hurdle, which is the first serious one really. Pavlyuchenkova is on the rise in terms of form and I think that she shouldn't be above 1.33 here even despite the H2H record, which has one easy US Open win for Mladenovic a couple of years back.
    Back Daniel Evans to beat Alexander Zverev at 3.50 with Skybet
    Evans might not be everyone's idea of an exciting players, but he's extremely hard-working and he's always giving it his best, which is the right recipe for someone like Zverev. The youngster is a future star, I don't have any doubts about that, but he's been off for quite a while now and the win over Brands doesn't change anything in that regard. It's consistency that matters the most in this format and Evans has more of that than Zverev, so I'll chance the underdog here at tasty odds.
  8. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in US Open 2016   
    Back Johanna Larsson to beat Denisa Allertova at 1.53 with BetVictor
    Allertova's win over Ivanovic is just an overrated result in my opinion. It wasn't a case of her playing well, it was a case of the Serb collapsing like a house of cards really. Larsson is very different from that - she's got both form and quality on her side here, having made a good run in New Haven before coming here and winning her first matches in both the singles and the doubles. Allertova will draw some confidence from the upset, but it shouldn't be enough for a win here.
  9. Like
    four-leaf reacted to neilovan in US Open 2016   
    Sorry, thought I had posted the above reply but I had not saved it.
     
    I like 3 games coming up.
     
    Mikail Youzny to beat Pella
    Lukas Poullie  is my dark horse to go deep. He is lousy price of 2 to 10 but I think he wins easily.
    My other sleeper, who has so much talent, and athletic ability is Gregor Dimitrov.  He gets his head together and starts to believe, he can beat anyone !
    He plays Chardy and he should win. The treble is not  much but its 12 to 10 and looks solid.
    As an outsider I like Zverev to beat Jack Sock. Sock went walkabouts against Talor Fritz, and it cost him at least 2 extra sets on court. They guy served like a club player (15 doubles, which is a joke at this level). Zverev is only 19 but a serious up and comer.
    I GOT THE WRONG ZVEREV !
    If I was betting woman's games, I would only look for upsets. 2 possible ones are;
    I think that Allertova at 2.49 is good value to beat  Larsson (gotta be feeling great after knocking out Ivanovic/Schweinsteiger).
    I is possible Venus Williams could get her marching orders from Camila Georges. AT 3.37 Georges is also great value.
     
     
     
     
     
  10. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from CzechPunter in US Open 2016   
    Johanna Larsson to beat Denisa Allertova at 1.53 with bet365
    I'll take Johanna any day here. Allertova just managed to beat Ana Ivanovic due to Anas lack of form. Should be a straight sets win for Johanna just like her win against Karin Knapp. She can and should build on her form from New Haven and I also think she could play an even contest against Serena Williams.
  11. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from janekda in US Open 2016   
    Alexander Dolgopolov to beat David Ferrer at 3.25 with bet365
    The happy days of David Ferrer seems to have come to an end this season. He will have a very hard time here. Not going to be easy for him to beat Dolgopolov. When Ferrer was on top of his game he could beat anyone but now he instead loses to anyone. Since the french open where he lost badly to Berdych he's lost to Mahut in SW19 also badly and after that he dropped a set to Calvin Hemery ranked outside top 300 in Bastad and lost in the same tournament to Albert Ramos in straight sets also a player he would have beaten in his glory days. Then it got even worse when he lost in the olympics to Evgeniy Donskoy after winning first set and being a break up in second and right after that in Cincinatti he lost to Julien Benneteau a player who also has seen better days but still David could not win. Alexander has already beaten David once in straight sets this season in Acapulco and he has a great chance to do it again.
  12. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from CzechPunter in US Open 2016   
    Pablo Carreno-Busta to beat (-2.5 sets) Ilya Ivashka at 2.00 with bet365
    What's this if not a routine blowout win for Pablo who just won his first ATP title and here faces 22 year old Ilya Ivashka ranked 181. A qualifier who on the way to the maindraw had some luck with the draw not needing to face any dangerous players at all. Just plain luck that he only had to face Nicolas Kicker who only had played one hardcourt match all season against Taylor Fritz in Miami qualifiers. Then he got to face Ryan Shane ranked 652 and last Mattias Bachinger ranked 514 who isn't very good nowadays. This reeks blowout. Pablo will outplay poor Ivashka easily. Ivashka hasn't even faced a top 50 player so far this season because he's only played on Challenger and Futures level except for his attempt to qualify for SW19 where he lost to Tim Smyczek in straight sets. And by the way he never has played in a Grand slam main draw as the attempt to qualify for SW19 this season was his first try to get in to a grand slam. This Pablo should take easily enough for this bet to come in.
  13. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in US Open 2016   
    Going for many more after giving all the matches a think. Good luck to everyone who will be betting!
    Back Pauline Parmentier to beat Caroline Garcia at 4.00 with Skybet
    The problems keep on piling for Garcia, who hasn't been her usual self since Wimbledon. She has plenty of personal issues, plenty of results issues and the fact that the French tennis association is now against her isn't going to help things either, so she shouldn't be a 1.25 fav against pretty much anyone and much less against someone who can do damage in the Grand Slams and who has beaten her before. It was almost painful to see her play against Flipkens in New Haven, so I'll take my chances here.
    Back Nao Hibino to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 3.40 with BetVictor
    Have already gone against Mladenovic a couple of times with good results and I'm happy to do that again at odds like this. She got absolutely crushed by Rogers in her last match and she hasn't been able to string wins together for quite some time now, which is worrying given that she is all about momentum. Chances are that she also isn't the right place mentally now that she's got suspended by the French tennis federation over some petty issues, so Hibino has a real chance here imo.
    Back Montserrat Gonzalez to beat Danka Kovinic at 3.25 with Paddy Power
    A realistic chance for an upset here imo, with an in-form player facing an out-of-form one. Gonzalez has upset three strong players in the qualifiers, including Ivana Jorovic, while Kovinic hasn't had a good win since June, where she won a small ITF tournament in Marseille. She's also never done well in the US Open, so to have her above 3.00 looks a bit stupid. Gonzalez is living a dream in a sense and it doesn't have to stop in the first round.
    Back Gilles Muller to beat Gael Monfils at 4.00 with Skybet
    Monfils didn't show up for his last match due to back issues and we all know how much his career is getting derailed with those, while Muller has been at his ultra-solid best recently. He's always a danger for the seeds thanks to his serve that's both big and consistent - it's just really hard to get back to a set against him if you drop a serve even just once. Muller won their only previous hard-court match, might just be the fitter of the two at this point of time, and he has had his fair share of big scalps in the US Open as well (Roddick, Davydenko, Haas, Youzhny - all in their primes).
    Back Kyle Edmund to beat Richard Gasquet at 4.33 with Skybet
    Needs to be taken with a bookie that doesn't void retirements such as Skybet, as those who saw Gasquet-Millman will know that the Frenchman is far from being out of the woods injury-wise. He's still a level above Edmund in terms of quality, but he's never been the fittest guy around and the injury seems to be getting worse rather than better, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Edmund outlast him.
    Back Vasek Pospisil (-2.5) to beat Jozef Kovalik at 1.85 with BetVictor
    Pospisil has certainly seen better days singles-wise, but I feel that a lot of his results had to do with bad draws - for example, he's had to face Monfils twice recently and the Frenchman isn't a player most guys would be able to beat in his current form. Even with that, however, Pospisil is still competing with the best week in and week out, while Kovalik is yet to make it from the Challenger circuit. Importantly, he's never won a GS match before and he's here only thanks to some lucky loser luck, so I really don't see him winning.
    Back Paul-Henri Mathieu (-5.5) to beat Christian Harrison at 2.00 with Paddy Power
    Mathieu isn't losing this unless he gets injured, plain and simple. Christian Harrison shouldn't even be here to be honest, he's had tremendous luck during the qualifiers, with Diez somehow managing to lose and Kravchuk retiring. So far in this season, he hasn't even made it to a Challenger main draw, while Mathieu is having a super-solid one by his standards and there's no reason for him to tank this after looking alright against Robert in the week before. I appreciate that Harrison has nothing to lose here, but the quality gap is massive here. Probably the biggest mis-match of the first round in all honesty.
  14. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from CzechPunter in US Open 2016   
    Alexander Dolgopolov to beat David Ferrer at 3.25 with bet365
    The happy days of David Ferrer seems to have come to an end this season. He will have a very hard time here. Not going to be easy for him to beat Dolgopolov. When Ferrer was on top of his game he could beat anyone but now he instead loses to anyone. Since the french open where he lost badly to Berdych he's lost to Mahut in SW19 also badly and after that he dropped a set to Calvin Hemery ranked outside top 300 in Bastad and lost in the same tournament to Albert Ramos in straight sets also a player he would have beaten in his glory days. Then it got even worse when he lost in the olympics to Evgeniy Donskoy after winning first set and being a break up in second and right after that in Cincinatti he lost to Julien Benneteau a player who also has seen better days but still David could not win. Alexander has already beaten David once in straight sets this season in Acapulco and he has a great chance to do it again.
  15. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in US Open 2016   
    Back Sara Errani to beat Shelby Rogers at 1.80 with Coral
    Am I missing something here? Errani has declined by quite a bit in recent times, but she's still much better than Rogers imo, with the American having exactly one good run this year. That was in the French Open, where she beat the likes of Kvitova, Pliskova and Begu, but she's 3-6 on hard courts for the season and she's won exactly one match since the glorious run, beating Mladenovic in New Haven. Errani should be 1.57 tops in my opinion.
  16. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in US Open 2016   
    Back Radek Stepanek to beat Gilles Simon at 2.20 with BetVictor
    Simon should be - in theory - having the edge here given the longer format, but he's in such a bad form at the moment that I don't trust him at all. He's been in serious decline for basically the entire season, with his win over Coric being the only good recent result. In the meantime, he managed to lose against guys like Schwartzmann, Monteiro and Edmund. Stepanek, on the other hand, is flying high - not only has he qualified here, but he also won a medal in the Olympics. Since May, he has four singles losses against Murray, Kohli, Kyrgios and Djokovic, which is an excellent record - and I think he's got every chance to win here as well.
  17. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in US Open 2016   
    Back Alesandro Giannessi to beat Denis Kudla at 2.75 with Ladbrokes
    I don't have anything against Kudla, but he hasn't won a match since the grass court season and he's folded in every single match since Wimbledon, where he shockingly lost against Dzumhur at similar odds as in this match. Giannessi, on the other hand, has qualified here with decent wins and he's always looked like a very determined player to me, which could count for a lot if this match gets long and tough. Interestingly, Kudla has never done well in his previous US Open showings, so perhaps there are some nerves for him when playing on the big stage in front of a home crowd.
  18. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in US Open 2016   
    Back Jelena Ostapenko to beat Petra Kvitova at 3.50 with Skybet
    This has to be tried after the disaster against Radwanska in New Haven. Not only did Kvitova lose that match horribly, but she also claimed to be ill afterwards and even saying that she might not be fully fit for the US Open. That's not the only thing to be worried about here from her side, however - she's already lost against Ostapenko twice in this very season, after all. There's no doubt that Kvitova is the favourite here, but these odds look too juicy given the circumstances.
  19. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in US Open 2016   
    Back Angelique Kerber to win the 2016 US Open at 9.00 with BetVictor
    A bit of a long shot, of course, but I honestly believe that Kerber is the player to beat on the WTA at the moment with Williams struggling. Kerber has two GS finals this year, a big goal to strive for, and an excellent form. She did lose against Pliskova in Cincinnati, but come on - she was expected to go out early after the shock loss against Puig, but she beat Strycova, Suarez-Navarro and Halep before finally running out of energy, so it was a massively good result in my opinion. She's now had a week to get herself ready physically and mentally and I think that she'll be ready to deliver.
  20. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in August 22 - August 28   
    Back Chanon Phunsawat to beat Sergey Betov at 10.00 with Skybet
    Alright, allow me to explain this one and why I'm going to chance Phunsawat - and why you might as well for smaller stakes. I don't know anything about Phunsawat apart from the fact that he upset someone in the first round (at 3.50 or so) of the qualifiers on Saturday and that he's a home player, but it's more about Betov really. Firstly, he's not a great player from what I've seen, he's probably stuck to early rounds of Challengers at most and that's what his results from 2016 suggest as well. Secondly, he was in Belarus on Friday, losing in a home Futures tournament semis, so there's the trip to Thailand after a painful loss. Thirdly, he's the first seed in the qualifiers and the main draw players have been dropping like flies, so there's a decent chance that he'll make it in even if he loses this. With all that in mind, it seems to me that it's ridiculous to have 10.00 against him. If everything is fine with Betov, he might win this 6-1 6-1, it certainly wouldn't shock me. But, with so many situational factors in play, this deserves a play.
  21. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from CzechPunter in August 22 - August 28   
    Pablo Carreno Busta to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut for a 7/10 stake at 3.00 with bet365

    Seems to be Pablos tournament this one. The guy is in great form and shines of self confidence. He is yet to drop a set and will continue playing his winning game as he's done versus Millman, Kuznetsov, Cuevas and Struff. Toughest match so far ofcourse for him and Roberto won their last and only encounter so far and it was by 3-2 in the US open last year. Anyway Pablo has shown this season that he's only getting better and better on both clay and hardcourt. I don't know what was up with Roberto yesterday as he choked the second set against Troicki and he's played a lot of three set matches this tournament and doesn't seem to be in the form to win this tournament when he's up against a tough opponent as Pablo.
  22. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in August 22 - August 28   
    Back Rebecca Peterson to beat Anhelina Kalinina at 1.44 with Ladbrokes
    First match for Kalinina for more than a year (!) due to an injury, so it's really hard for me to believe that she can win this. She did crush Peterson when they last met, but Peterson has made a lot of progress since then and has some good results in this season, while Kalinina has been sitting on the sidelines and that must have taken its toll. There's a similar match in Pfizemaier-Strakhova, but Pfizemaier was a top player before her injury, so I'm a bit afraid of that. Kalinina wasn't, however.
  23. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in August 22 - August 28   
    Back John Millman to beat Bjorn Fratangelo at 1.67 with Coral
    Fratangelo had plenty of problems with Lorenzi in the previous round, while Millman has already managed to achieve two good wins over Ramos and Nishioka, so I'd have him as a bigger favourite here. The Australian hasn't been getting much coverage, but he's made massive progress in recent months and he's on his way to the top 50, while Fratangelo seems to be back to the Challenger level after getting some big results on a few occasions.
  24. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from janekda in August 22 - August 28   
    Andrew Whittington to beat Joao Souza at 2.25 with bet365
    I don't trust Joao to put Andrew away in the US open qualies. The brazilian have almost exclusively focused on the clay this year, almost more then he used to do and he hasn't played on hardcourt since april when losing in straight sets to Omar Jasika. I can belive Joao is on a level of around 200 in the world on hardcourt, maybe worse. Souza has won two challenger crowns lately on clay and now the obstacle of changing surface. Andrew seems to have reached a good moment in his career now playing very well on the challenger hardcourt tournaments reaching a final, semi-final and a quarter in his last three tournaments. He plays similar to Brian Baker. Quite a heavy serve and efficient follow-up forehand but a highly limited backhand. But anyway he's raised his level this season from being a hardcourt future player to a decent hardcourt challenger player. Souza has some momentum coming into this because of winning his last two clay challengers but anyway, I think I'll give Andrew a go here.
  25. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from CzechPunter in August 22 - August 28   
    Andrew Whittington to beat Joao Souza at 2.25 with bet365
    I don't trust Joao to put Andrew away in the US open qualies. The brazilian have almost exclusively focused on the clay this year, almost more then he used to do and he hasn't played on hardcourt since april when losing in straight sets to Omar Jasika. I can belive Joao is on a level of around 200 in the world on hardcourt, maybe worse. Souza has won two challenger crowns lately on clay and now the obstacle of changing surface. Andrew seems to have reached a good moment in his career now playing very well on the challenger hardcourt tournaments reaching a final, semi-final and a quarter in his last three tournaments. He plays similar to Brian Baker. Quite a heavy serve and efficient follow-up forehand but a highly limited backhand. But anyway he's raised his level this season from being a hardcourt future player to a decent hardcourt challenger player. Souza has some momentum coming into this because of winning his last two clay challengers but anyway, I think I'll give Andrew a go here.
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