four-leaf
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Posts posted by four-leaf
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Back Edouard Roger-Vasselin/John Millman over 22.5 games for a 7/10 stake at 1.98 with Pinnaclesports
I've seen both players in action this week and I know they serve very well both of them. Roger-Vasselin did well to take out Monfils in straight sets with solid serving and Monfils had some really bad off day that made the match result in an easy straight sets victory for Roger-Vasselin but he will have more trouble coming his way this time around. I feel very sure about that. The match against Monfils did go over 22.5 games and Roger-Vasselin is favourite to win this match so I don't get the odds for the over 22.5 line because Millman is playing better then Monfils did.
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Back Paolo Lorenzi (-1.5 sets) to beat Alejandro Falla for a 7/10 stake at 2.34 with Pinnaclesports
I have to say Falla has started this season quite alright just like Lorenzi has. But what makes me pick Lorenzi here is the fact that he has a bit better game for clay then Falla does and his mentallity is more stable too and he does'nt start breaking down in the middle of matches like Falla can do from time to time. The head-2-head is also positive for Lorenzi as he beat him 7-5 6-1 here in Quito last season and in challenger Bogota semi-finals also last season turning the match around winning 3-6 6-2 6-4. The price on Pinnaclesports is also quite high for this to happen. What could make this not come in would be that Lorenzi is tired from last week but I don't think it should have any bigger effect. He had a short match against Escobar and has got some rest after the short final against Melzer in Bucaramanga.
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On 2016-01-31 16:08:53, CzechPunter said:
Back Alexander Zverev to beat Luca Vanni for a 7/10 stake at 1.55 with Unibet
No outrights for me in Montpellier, but I'll go with Zverev on day one, he should just be way too strong for Vanni, who is just a Challenger player imo, can't see him rising above that. Zverev might be 1-3 for the season, but that includes two losses against Murray and one 1-2 defeat against Kyrgios, so don't read into that at all.
Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/atp-montpellier-day-one-2016013101
What a match! Zverev showed some great character turning it all around. He was in big trouble in third set facing a matchpoint and being down 4-2 with Vanni serving for 5-2. Saw it all and Zverev played really good and Vanni also played really good. Both was serving great and made few unforced errors. I just felt that it would be just a matter of time before Zverev would eventually win since he was the better player. Vanni was getting the ball back all the time. It was very annoying but finally Zverev managed to get his nose infront and then well he still could have lost it but his talent really showed at that last point when he struck a winner down the line.
- CzechPunter and Fader
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Back Dusan Lajovic (-1.5 sets) to beat Albert Ramos at 4.33 with Bet365
It's a big risk but I just got to try this. Lajovic can be seriously hard to break and I've seen that on hardcourt late last season and it's been obvious so far this season too when he faced Bautista Agut in AO and I think Ramos might get a nasty surprise here facing Lajovic with his quite good serving and baseline skills. As Ogii apointed out hard is also his worst surface and he's started the season well enough on that surface similar to how he finished last season on hard indoors and I suspect he could roll on in south america. Ramos can be a test on clay no doubt but I suspect he's not in his best form. He did beat Federer in Shanghai so it does happen that Ramos gets some wins here and there. Last season Lajovic got to the quarters in Quito losing to Feliciano Lopez beating Vanni 7-6 6-4 in the first round and I think he's got some decent chances for a repeat. We'll see how this one goes. It will probably be close and hopefully it ends in straight sets for Lajovic.
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Back Kyle Edmund/Di Wu under 20.5 games for a 8/10 stake at 1.90 with Bet365
Back Kyle Edmund (-4.5) to beat Di Wu for a 8/10 stake at 1.72 with Bet365
I think it's possible to pick whatever of these two bets. Edmund will probably toy with Wu here with his far better baseline skills. He's the better player overall and Wu has had a good tournament and this is a too big step up in quality for the chinese. But if the match ends with Edmund winning 6-4 6-4 it would make the under come in but not the handicap so I think I prefer the under most of the two. But it very mutch looks like both bets will come in since Wu is quite chanceless. His serve is not good enough to get Edmund under pressure and it will result in Edmund getting Wu under pressure instead since he will have no problems returning the Wu serve. I think I'll be going for the under 20.5.
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Ok here we go...
Back Kyle Edmund/James Duckworth over 22.5 games for a 8/10 stake at 1.90 with Bet365
As mentioned above Duckworth is playing impressive in Maui and will continue doing so but Edmund is a step up in quality for the aussie. Edmund should have a hard time if anything is the way it's been with Duckworth. He serves very well and does a great job from the baseline and he even came succesfully to the net a few times against Tiafoe. Edmund should get something hard to bite on here. Edmund is not as solid as the previous results in Maui says and he will get something more of a real test here. Edmunds last match against Meister was all about Meister not showing up at all as he did tons of unforced errors and got totally outplayed but if he even would be able to show up anywhere against Edmund it should be in Maui since he's played good enough from qualies and got to the quarter and last season Meister was in the final but there was a big gap of quality between him and Edmund so it was no real test for Edmund. The one before called Michael Mmoh was no test either. Anyway here comes, the first player who plays good enough to match Edmund.
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Sorry for posting a bet from Maui challenger in the Aussie open thread but where would I else put it. Anyway James Duckworth was supersolid through out the hole match. 14 aces and never droping serve and only faced one breakpoint on his own serve in the middle of the second set. James Duckworth v Kyle Edmund will be highly interesting and should present a quite good opportunity to win some more since I think it's going to be a tight match so a lot of games probably. Saw Edmund play Meister yesterday and Duckworth today and that's enough for me to say it's gonna be a tight match. Duckworth is really hard to break now and he just thrives on the court. He just plays some awesome tennis right now so don't go against him is my advice when he goes up against Edmund.
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Back James Duckworth (-2.5) to beat Frances Tiafoe for a 8/10 stake at 1.87 with Pinnaclesports
I think James have been playing quite good this week. He really likes the courts. Have not lost a set in his two matches he's played. Tiafoe is 18 and he needs time to evolve into a better player. That I learned during the Aussie open qualies when he lost in straight sets to Peter Gojowczyk. They have played eachother 2 times and it's one win a piece from last season and both matches have gone to three sets. Seeing how both have been playing this week I suspect Tiafoe is not playing well enough to match Duckworth this time. Tiafoe has played two matches this week and lost the first set both times. If Duckworth keeps serving like he did against Taylor Fritz this may be over in two sets. Duckworth should be able to cover the handicap in the process.
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You never know about womens tennis. Momentum can change quickly. I really thought Dasha would win second set. Never expected CSN to come back.
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Dasha is far to confident for CSN to have a chance in this one. Dasha owns CSN big time at the start of the match. She will win in straight sets.
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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
I should've known better about Berdych, very reminiscent of how he self-destructed against Simon in last year's Wimbledon.
Berdych eventually stepped up to the plate and won but yes you should have known better but you did better further down the thread since I think Beck is underrated and you have probably done the right thing there and you should be right about Gavrilova too and Sharapova was a void.
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Back S.Johnson/F.Ferrer - Over 36.5 games for a 6/10 stake at 1.93 with Pinnaclesports
Johnson does have quite a good serve and he tends to do well against defenders like Ferrer so I think he can push for a tie-break or two and he may even take a set which is required for this bet to come in.
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I agree, Nishi should beat Tsonga..
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Angelique Kerber (-6.5) to beat Madison Brengle 1.92 with Pinnaclesports
Brengles road will end here no doubt and it will end with Kerber being as dominant as she has been before against her. Kerber leads 3-0 and in every match this line has been covered. They have met two times last season and once already this season in Brisbane where Kerber won 6-3 6-0 and it could probably end with Kerber winning by about 8-9 games again.
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Back Johanna Larsson (-1.5) to beat Madison Brengle for a 8/10 stake at 1.91 with Pinnaclesports
Larsson beat Brengle in Linz indoors last season in october and that is the worst surface for Larsson but she still won in straight sets because of here stronger mentality then. She was patient and waited for Brengle to produce bad serves. I expect Larsson to be able to progress since she still is the more mentally stable of the two.
Back Kirsten Flipkens (+6.5) to beat Garbiñe Muguruza for a 7/10 stake at 1.91 with Pinnaclesports
Flipkens played some solid tennis in october and november. Something that explained why she reached top 15 once. She has beaten Muguruza before in straight sets and lost once in straight sets and did'nt lose by more then 5 games then. I know she's fully capable of covering +6.5 games so I take my chances with her.
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Tamira Paszek to beat Roberta Vinci for a 7/10 stake at 2.36 with Pinnaclesports
Paszek has started her season in fashion totally outplaying Svetlana Kuznetsova and reaching the semis going out against Julia Goerges in Auckland. She's naturally managed to qualify to Australian open and she is on a mission to get this season to be a really good one for her and she's proved it to be something she can manage. She is 2-0 against Roberta Vinci without losing a set winning in Hobart 2010 and at her favourite surface grass in Wimbledon 2012. I think we might see a small upset here and I take this price on Paszek any day of the week when Vinci is on the other side of the net.
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On 2016-01-16 13:04:44, CzechPunter said:
Very good reading for everyone at the official wta site.
On Azarenka: Hindered by a foot injury in 2014 and still not 100% last year, the two-time Aussie Open champ has looked very sharp to commence 2016. Not only did Azarenka win the title in Brisbane, but she did it without much fuss.
But are we reading too much into her success, since she didn't have to face players such as Sharapova, Simona Halep and Garbine Muguruza?
On Radwanska: Radwanska served extremely well in Shenzhen, striking nine aces in the final and coming up with good serves when in trouble. A continuation of that and she might make a deep run in Melbourne.
On Giorgi v Serena: On paper, it's a tough start for Serena. She landed Camila Giorgi, who just missed out on a seeding ranked 35th. By now, many of you know that the rather diminutive Italian punches above her weight when it comes to ball striking: She's indeed one of the hardest hitters on the tour.
More to read http://www.wtatennis.com/news/article/5278220/title/ao-draw-expert-predictions
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Back Fernando Verdasco (+2.5 sets) to beat Rafael Nadal for a 8/10 stake at 2.15 with Pinnaclesports
I think we might see Nadal struggling here. He's lost two of three matches against Verdasco in Miami last season and before that in Madrid 2012 and when he beat him in Hamburg last season it was in three sets so Verdasco should have his chances to take a set here. I think Verdasco played ok against Djokovic in Doha and it could very well be enough to take a set off of Nadal.
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9 hours ago, Simeon Borisof said:
I have thought about Lorenzi in some way myself and just waited for some more options on bet365 but I happened to lose all my money at bet365 on Dimitrov sadly but I would bet on over 3.5 sets if I could. Very good bet.
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Alison Riske to beat Belinda Bencic 4.33 with bet365
Alison Riske to beat (-1.5 sets) Belinda Bencic 7.71 with Pinnaclesports
They met once in 2014 and Riske won in straight sets in Tianjin final. She is a dangerous player in good form right now so I would go hard on Riske here. Bencic has some injury also and might not even be fit to finish the match.
Magda Linette to beat Monica Puig 3.85 with Pinnaclesports
Puig took some serious beating against Kuznetsova so her confidence might have taken a big hit there. I don't get the odds on Linette either since she is 2-0 against Puig on hard.
Roger Federer to beat (-2.5 sets) Nikoloz Basilashvili 1.20 with bet365
Bad draw for Basilashvili to face the all time great in the first round. Easy straight sets for Roger.
Stan Wawrinka to beat (-2.5 sets) Dmitry Tursunov 1.20 with bet365
Tursunov played three matches in Bangkok challenger to kick off his season and lost to Frederik Nielsen in straight sets. He will not have mutch chance to take a set against Stan here.
Anna-Lena Friedsam to beat (-1.5 sets) Lourdes Domínguez Lino 1.94 with Pinnaclesports
Friedsam is very underrated here. She's played very good tennis so far this season. Lino lost to Zoe Hives ranked 504 in Hobart qualifying 7-6 7-6 last weekend to kick off her season. Not very promising if she is going to be able to threaten Friedsam here. I think I can count on her winning this in straight sets.
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Back S.Kuznetsova/M.Puig - Over 21.5 games for a 7/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Puig has played some very good tennis here and so has Kuznetsova so I fully expect this to be an even contest. Unless Puig falls apart she should be able to hold her serve a couple of times. Inexperience in finals might make Puig lose it in the end but she's played such good tennis so far so why should she not do it again.
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Back Frances Tiafoe to beat Peter Gojowczyk for a 8/10 stake at 1.72 with Bet365
Tiafoe just beat Jared Donaldson in straight sets and I rate Donaldson higher then Gojowczyk who just beat Brydan Klein also in straight sets and Tiafoe does show a lot of signs of constantly improving and he's just 17 years old ranked 177. I think Tiafoe is something like Taylor Fritz and he can take this match, no doubt.
February 1 - February 7
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Back Marcos Baghdatis (+3.0) to beat Richard Gasquet for a 8/10 stake at 1.97 with Pinnaclesports
Fader about your outright on Gasquet it's not looking so good for tomorrow since he is trailing against Baghdatis 0-3 in the head-2-head. I think we might see a pretty good match between Baghdatis and Gasquet but keep in mind that Gasquet has failed to take a set from Baghdatis in 3 attempts so I find it strange to see the standard game handicap price on Baggy being the outsider bet since it should be more likely that we may see an even match between them or even a shock result making Baggy the winner in straight sets like Muller against Simon tonight.