Pirate53

Have pretty much same as you, managed to post picks on racing chat this time.

645 south 
Another angel 8.5 7/2 9/4 no value 
Slowmo 7.2 4/1 3/1 no value 
Another angel should take a lot of beating ...

515 south 
Love your work 9.2 7/2 9/4 no value 
Legal reform 8.2 4/1 5/2 no value 
Iva refection 7.8 9/2 7/2 no value 
Love your work looks to have the strongest form and shoukd run a big race 
Love your work 9/4 to win 

Only southwell on today so I'll have a play 
445 south 
Mukha magic 9.4 3/1 2/1 no value 
Mr carbonator   6.8 9/2 15/2 value 
Mukha magic looks to have strong form coming into this and should run a good race 
Mukha magic 10pt win 2/1 bet365 
 

Only small races so no ew really but good to just rest the formulas in small races ....I'm quite happy in the small races but I'm working on a diff formula for the big races ....I've had some success but need more races to test it on ...was hoping taunton was gonna run as I'd picked a test race there but called off .....I think with so many horses in big races fairly close together I thought  it just needs a diff approach to sort them out .....in the big races I want a formula that I know I dont need to look outside the top 3 or 4 rated regardless of race size so the bets almost become automatic .....I'm trying about 5 or 6 diff combinations to see which one is the best ...and 1 of them has given .....race 1 .2nd and   4th ....race 2 3rd ....race 3 ..1st and 4th ....race 4 2nd 5th 6th .....all big 18 runner plus hcaps so I dont think it's just luck ..all prices up to 25/1 .....but I need more test races to make sure not just fluke but it looks very exciting and still a month to go before chelt .....so I'm currently just testing various guns ?? before the war 

Top 2 1st & 2nd, Poetic 3rd, Al Muff 4th!

Not a fan of the all weather racing but I reckon you’d win more on it with the ratings. Could be wrong like, but just an observation. 

Top 2 1st & 2nd, Poetic 3rd, Al Muff 4th!

Top 2 1st & 2nd, Poetic 3rd, Al Muff 4th!

Mines below

Wolves 18.30
Secret Victory      16.31     5.25/1       11/4      No Value
Amaysmont         15.28      11/2          11/4      No Value
Al Muffrih             14.96       6/1          25/1      Value!
Snow Ocean       14.23       6/1           5/1       No Value
Poetic Force       13.98      6.25/1       10/1      Value
Atheeb                13.80       13/2         5/1       No Value
Kaser                 13.44        7/1          7/1       About right
Incredibly close h/cap. Al Muffrih down to last winning mark but no form on AW or at the distance.
Top 2 probably have it, Poetic Force worth a small dabble.

350 leopard sat ladbrokes hurdle 
Moyglass flyer  7.6 12/1 7/1 no value 
Ciel de Niege 7.3 13/1 11/1 no value 
Hes a hardy bloke 7.3 13/1 11/1 no value 
I'll take these 3 ....5pts each and 2pt win doubles on all selected horses above in all 3races.....shoot for a big prize 

I would use strike rate as a logical way of adjusting for age.
The strike rate by age in handicap chases is :-
4 0.18 5 0.15 6 0.16 7 0.14 8 0.12 9 0.11 10 0.10 11 0.08 12 0.07 13 0.06 14 0.07 15 0.12

Catterick 2.00
Legalised 8.15, 5/1(13/2) no value 
Bryden Boy 7.95, 8/1(7/1) value 
Bailarico 7.78, 14/1(7/1) value 
Big Penny 7.15, 5/1(15/2) no value 
Jessiemac 7, 10/1(8/1) value 
top 5 rated in a field of 11. Bailarico looks the standout bet in terms of value and is not far off top rated . 

Secret ambition value bet wins easily ....the non hcaps ran well today so just need a few more test races to confirm things are working but happy so far 

Mouheeb  wins ...meshakel 2nd ...happy with that 

My suggestion:
4/5        1
6/7        0
8           1
9           2
10         3
11         4
12         5
13         6
14+       7
For 10 yo and up add yrs since last win, then knock total off hcap mark.

Devise an age scale maybe? Or just knock the horses age off the handicap mark?

Trying some non hcaps 
Uae 2000 guineas thurs meydan 340
Mouheeb  9.6 4/1 11/8   no value 
Naval crown 9.5  4/1 6/4 no value 
Meshakel  8.1 5/1 9/2 no value 
Only 6 runners so mainly just to check ratings 

I was right to be worried!
Top 4 came 2nd-5th.

Kempton 18.30
Precision Storm     19.33     4.75/1       9/4        No value
No Nay Bella         17.81      5/1          11/2        Some Value
Toro Dorado          17.58      5.25/1     13/2        Value
Charlie Arthur        16.58      5.75/1      7/1         Value
Rick Blaine            16.00       6/1         25/1        Value         
Party Island           13.16      15/2        15/2        About right
El Salvaje              12.19       8/1          7/2         No value
Top rated no bet.
I have a bet on El Salvaje from a tipster I follow. Bit worried now I've done this!!
 

Mission boy was 4th ....been one of those funny outsider days today ...

Yes I agree the larger value horses say 5th onwards are dubious unless there is a particular reason to think otherwise they are value bets of course but if your form ratings are accurate then they are up against it .......what I'm finding is most races are won by the top 4 or they go damn well close so I've been short listing my top 4 then going deeper to see if I can narrow it further .....I think if your value bet is in the top 2 then those are very good bets ...I'd call them gold bets .....if top 4 and good prices then silver bets ...weve had 2 40/1 in top 4 so I think if there are huge priced horses there dont be afraid to back them because if their form rating is strong enough to get them into top 4 then they can win regardless of price 

I think this is the way I would approach this ....... you try and do ratings that you're confident about then obviously you have to think that the winner will be your top rated horse ......... otherwise there's no point doing ratings
The second step would be value .... to see if your top rated is value. If not don't back it even if you think it might win according to your ratings
There are plenty of races every day ..... if you stuck to backing your top rated horses that were also 'value' you've got half a chance. Leave the other races alone.
I suppose the other way would be to look at your tip 3 or 4 rated and see if any are massive prices for EW betting
I'm a bit wary of concluding that my 8th top rated, a 100/1 shot,  is 'value' because I make it a 66/1 shot. There are still 7 horses that you think are more likely to win!
So I think you should be concentrating on your top rated for win purposes 'if' they are also value.

Southwell 17.40
Samovar             15.36        4.75/1        3/1      No value
Nick Vedder        13.63         11/2          9/4      No value
Knowing Glance 12.66          6/1          11/2     About Right
Triple Spear        12.43       6.25/1       14/1      Value
Another Angel     12.23        13/2         16/1      Value
Ventura Flame    12.02        13/2         14/1      Value
Excessable         11.76         7/1           7/2      No  value
Top 2 way ahead so no bet for me.
Excessable interesting, came 3rd behind Samovar last time out. Hugh Taylor selection.