Pirate53

Dutch 4th, Tintoretto 2nd had a bit of ew money! Winner Chookie was a value bet.

Wolves 16.55
Dutch Decoy          22.51       7/1       11/4        No Value
Baby Steps            21.51       8/1        5/1         No Value
Tintoretto               19.27       9/1       10/1        Some Value
Parallel World        18.82      19/2       9/2         No Value
Mohareb                18.66      19/2       6/1         No Value
Borsdane Wood    18.64      19/2       28/1       Value
Masked Identity    18.43      9.75/1     8/1         No Value
Fighting Tem         17.94      10/1       20/1       Value
Chookie Dunedin  16.80      11/1       12/1       Some Value
Had to rate this race as DD out again. I'm going Win but think 5/2 or shorter is too short (I'm on at 3/1, will top up if drifts to 7/2). Also an ew bet on Tintoretto.
 

Dutch 4th, Tintoretto 2nd had a bit of ew money! Winner Chookie was a value bet.

Dutch 4th, Tintoretto 2nd had a bit of ew money! Winner Chookie was a value bet.

Two for gold won...aso 2nd ...admirals secret 3rd.....I've backed ew so I'm happy with that 
Admirals secret drifted to 16/1 so became a good value bet 

Wolves 16.55
Dutch Decoy          22.51       7/1       11/4        No Value
Baby Steps            21.51       8/1        5/1         No Value
Tintoretto               19.27       9/1       10/1        Some Value
Parallel World        18.82      19/2       9/2         No Value
Mohareb                18.66      19/2       6/1         No Value
Borsdane Wood    18.64      19/2       28/1       Value
Masked Identity    18.43      9.75/1     8/1         No Value
Fighting Tem         17.94      10/1       20/1       Value
Chookie Dunedin  16.80      11/1       12/1       Some Value
Had to rate this race as DD out again. I'm going Win but think 5/2 or shorter is too short (I'm on at 3/1, will top up if drifts to 7/2). Also an ew bet on Tintoretto.
 

todays top rated selections


WARWICK 14:20 Jaisalmer 20/1 e/w 5 Places (nb # 7) having a bet on both

WARWICK 15:55 Oldgrangewood 7/1 e/w 4 Places

Dont need to mess with hcap one i think ....it wont win every race but its picking up the big prices now even in the bigger races .....I'm using 
30 % hcap 
30% form lto
20% going 
20% dist 
Not so fussed on course as numerous horses are effective at diff courses ....some I know are better at certain courses but I ran the course formula and it didnt seem to make much diff ....
Bonus points I use high value place last 3 runs 
Just need to get stuck into the none hcap and graded races now .....definately requires a bit of tweaking ...I'm playing with replacing o.r for hcap....like top 3 score highest etc going down ....I know that's biased but top rated tend to win more than bottom rated especially if recent form backs it up....its a starting point lol

Same here Richard. Not going to part with my money. It’s soft now, but next couple of hours is rain/snow, so it will be pretty testing and might turn to heavy again. I’ll probably have a bet at punchestown national tomorrow. 

215 naas 
Lean araig 8.0 11/1 5/1 poor value 
Kitten rock 7.9 11/1 16/1 good value 
Revelyn pleasure 7.4 12/1 4/1 poor value 
Jammy george 7.1 13/1 14/1 value 
Not a race I want to get involved with really....lot of horses  out of form....a few are capable on old form so could suddenly run well after poor form ....and ground is riding heavy.....of the above ....most likely winners are revelyn or leann....kitten rock looks the value bet ....his form is up and down badly but is capable on an up day ....one to watch for me 
 

Drakensburg wins easily

Got to be tadleel for me! Down in class  knocking on door. Katheffa value.

Newcastle 17.30
Dutch Decoy          17.08        5/1        3/1     No value
Tadleel                   15.48        6/1        7/2     No value
Daafr                     13.33        7/1        8/1     Some value
Anif                        13.14       7/1       15/2     Some value
Ulshaw Bridge       13.09       7/1       11/2     No value
Red Bond              12.64      15/2      11/2     No value
Katheefa               11.03       17/2      12/1     Value
Dandys Gold         10.49       9/1        33/1    Value
Tricky race this. I have a share in Dutch Decoy so a bit biased! He should win if reproducing the last run. Was top weight lto and made light of it. 4lb higher today and top weight again. We'll see. Value bet is Katheefa but hard to fancy for me.

Get in beauty ....highly dancer wins easily ...100pts returned 

The value bets are of particular importance when they are rated top 2 or 3 .....you'll get better bets in the big handicaps as the value will be better hidden and prices naturally higher .....in theory if you get the form ratings accurate and you back the value bets rated top 2 or 3 ew you should do pretty well long term ....that's something that will become obvious long term ....in the meantime everything bounces off accurate form ratings ...we are getting there ....vast improvements since we first started across the board ....there are big things to come ....I'm sure of it 

Not me so far. A big advantage of rating a race is that it gives you a good feel for all the runners. Most of the value selections look, sound and smell like dogs. Conclusion.....they're probably dogs!!

Wish I'd done a double now. George Rooke on both of them, very cool apprentice. Note to self: Kelleway/Rooke +2pts!

Wish I'd done a double now. George Rooke on both of them, very cool apprentice. Note to self: Kelleway/Rooke +2pts!

Shows you need to be in the know .....won easy .......mine 2nd and 4th 

Southwell 16.45
Mukha Magic           16.70        7/2     2/1      No value
Nicks Not Wonder   15.71        4/1     9/4       No value
Arabian King            13.43       5/1     4/1       No value   
Mr Carbonator         12.96     5.25/1   8/1       Value
Be Fair                     12.38      11/2     9/1       Value
Siavash                    9.56        13/2    25/1     Value
Mukha Magic v strong, agree with Richard. Cash is down!
Don't think much of the value picks.

Well good luck ....I'm just loving each result cos I can tell what's working or not working then cross things off .....the list is shortening to a few chosen .....I ditched the previous form figure as it was taking the place of other important factors and the stats were saying it wasnt working as well as I expected 

1st and 2nd in first race .....2nd rated won in 2nd race .....like I said I think the formula is fine for small races ....its just the big hcap formula needed now (and then the graded races )....

Wins easy as you like! Kerrching!

Wins easy as you like! Kerrching!

Dont like Nick's  not wonder as this is a very diff surface but I think mr carbonator is a good value bet and could run well