richard-westwood

Done 3 L15's and accas on the daily = 6.50 pts
3.40 Nm Crack Shot 0.50 ew 8 p 14/1
4.20 Ches Ramiro  0.50 ew 4 p at 16/1
= total of 8.50 stakes for 13 selections in 12 races; how's that for a bit of fun?

😲 hope this not an omen for today, did 2 in 1st race Longchamp with Harbour Wind from Ireland @ 2/1 and A Fabres runner @ 8/1 EW. 2nd & 4th 👎
3rd race Longchamp gone for the 3 Brit runners in a Combination tricast....Trushan / Emily Dickenson / Run for Oscar 🤞
Newm 1.50     Capulet  7/4             Ghostwriter 10/3     WON     
Ches 2.05        Baez  4/1               Yorkindness    15/2 EW 
Newm 2.25     Jasnas Secret  7/1 EW  ( main bet backed thursday on thread)             Shuangxi  100/1 EW                     4 places
Hay 2.40          Silky Wilkie  5/1                   Manila Scouse  7/2
Ripon 2.55      Hoof it Hoof it   6/1 EW   WON         Bay of Hope  14/1  EW     3rd 
Long 2.58        Loose Cannon 7/2                    Stangheli   22/1 EW    3rd
Newm 3.00      Vandeek  7/4    WON                      Jasour  10/1 EW
  😲 needed that last 5 mins of 3 races with 2 wins / 2 EW places......also a 2nd Easterby winner with Roach Power 9/2 at Haydock, just got bet on  👍
Newm 3.40      Merlin the Wizard 12/1 EW ( daily nap)      Carolus Magnus  66/1 EW     Thunder ball 70/1 EW                6 places
 
        3 WINS 🏆 🏆 🏆 and 2 EW places so ok......not count Roach Power 9/2 as not post, just managed to get bet on, so made nice profit in end 💷
       late info..pals at Newmarket races heard Crisfords runner at Longchamp 'Poker Face' 4/1 WON have nice bit on, also ive done Fabres Belbek 9/2...                and in last at HQ he doing Tuers 'Bajan Bandit'  7/1 EW  2nd.......
    Sooo big 😘 to our friends at HQ today who enjoyed their 2 days racing / Bavarian delicacies & for the late tip in Longchamp for very nice 4/1 winner    who won easily we hear 2/3 lengths 👍
 

Cmon beauty ....+60.00 😀

On the question of Continuous ( not to say i am backing it ) but it tanked through the Leger pulling double . Sealed the race 2 furlongs out with a real change of pace , quickened away and perhaps if anything tired in the last furlong  . Looked as if the one mile six stretched it slightly and 12f might be its ideal trip . Ryan Moore only gave the horse a couple of taps so he thought there was plenty left ...........personally i want Westover to win  ,  been so unlucky in the past .

Cmon beauty ....+60.00 😀

150newm 
Ghostwriter. 8.0. 5/1
Capulet. 7.6 5/2
Fav Capulet  looks strong but ghostwriter looks a horse going places so I'll try 10pt Ew 

2yo speed
150 ghost writer
225 porter fortuna
300 jasour

Cambridgeshire 
Dual identity.  8.9 12/1 
Eagles way. 8.7  28/1 
Killybegs warrior. 8.7 40/1 
Greek order.  8.4
Greek order could be anything but has been raised 10lb so looks worth taking on .....with 6places I'll try 5pt Ew top 3 at big prices and hope one springs a surprise 

I'll try,
Won Class 3 lto rated 85, carrying 8-13
Runs in Class 2 today rated 95, carries 8-9

225 newm 
Jasnas secret looks a horse on a steep upward curve ....faster ground a query but looks a speedy type 
10pt win 7/2
 

150newm 
Ghostwriter. 8.0. 5/1
Capulet. 7.6 5/2
Fav Capulet  looks strong but ghostwriter looks a horse going places so I'll try 10pt Ew 

225 newm 
Jasnas secret looks a horse on a steep upward curve ....faster ground a query but looks a speedy type 
10pt win 7/2
 

150newm 
Ghostwriter. 8.0. 5/1
Capulet. 7.6 5/2
Fav Capulet  looks strong but ghostwriter looks a horse going places so I'll try 10pt Ew 

Cambridgeshire 
Dual identity.  8.9 12/1 
Eagles way. 8.7  28/1 
Killybegs warrior. 8.7 40/1 
Greek order.  8.4
Greek order could be anything but has been raised 10lb so looks worth taking on .....with 6places I'll try 5pt Ew top 3 at big prices and hope one springs a surprise 

Cambridgeshire 
Dual identity.  8.9 12/1 
Eagles way. 8.7  28/1 
Killybegs warrior. 8.7 40/1 
Greek order.  8.4
Greek order could be anything but has been raised 10lb so looks worth taking on .....with 6places I'll try 5pt Ew top 3 at big prices and hope one springs a surprise 

Cambridgeshire 
Dual identity.  8.9 12/1 
Eagles way. 8.7  28/1 
Killybegs warrior. 8.7 40/1 
Greek order.  8.4
Greek order could be anything but has been raised 10lb so looks worth taking on .....with 6places I'll try 5pt Ew top 3 at big prices and hope one springs a surprise 

Just on the hunt for some value 
150 newm 
Astral beau. 8.7 12/1
Amayneh. 8.5 16/1
Coppice. 8.2 11/2
Tarawah. 8.1
Queen for you 8.1.
Bookies really fancy the bottom 3 rated .....but the top 2 look value bets Ew ....so I'll play and hope they outrun their odds 
5pt Ew top 2
 

Any thoughts on the arc ??
These are my ratings for the race currently ....
Hukum.  9.0. 5/1 
Westover. 8.9. 8/1 
Ace impact. 8.4 
Continuous with run. 8.4 
August Rodin. 8.3 
Arrest.   7.9 
Luxembourg. 7.9 
Feed the flame. 7.9 
Currently only the top 2 interest me 🤔

This year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe will be run on ground just on the easy side of good with Paris basking in sunshine this week and here’s my horse by horse look at the big race which has a staggering £4,424,779 in prize money going down to the fifth.   SISAFAHAN (stall 13) Trainer: Henk Grewe Jockey: Lucas Delozier One of two for German handler Henk Grewe. Runner up in Grosser Preis Von Berlin in August his best effort. Outsider and impossible to fancy.   HAYA ZARK (4) Trainer: Adrien Fouassier Jockey: Gerald Mosse Yet to race in a Group 1 and looks out of his league here - forget him.   ONESTO (9) Trainer: F Chappet Jockey: Maxine Guyon 10th last year in very soft ground. Yet to shine this year at shorter distances and stepping back up in trip. Has plenty of ability but needs to step up again here.   SIMCA MILLE (15) Trainer: S Wattel Jockey: Alexis Pouchin Won seven of his 14 career starts. Won three of his 4 starts this season including last time out in the Group 1 Grosser Preis Von Berlin when odds on from Sisfahan. Won last year’s Prix Neil and is no forlorn hope though has the coffin draw in 15.   BAY BRIDGE (6) Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute Jockey: Richard Kingscote Unexposed at today’s trip of 12F. Impressed when beating Candleford on his first attempt at 12F in the Group 3 September Stakes earlier this month. Smart on his day and well drawn in 5. Player   WESTOVER (1) Trainer: Ralph Beckett Jockey: Rob Hornby 6th last year when ground was too soft for him. Smart 4 year old who has been very consistent this season, winning Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in July prior to a head second to Hukum in King George at Ascot. Had recent away day at Salisbury and been to the beech last week. Can run well from stall 1.   HUKUM (14) Trainer: Owen Burrows Jockey: Jim Crowley A head winner from Westover in King George at Ascot last time and there shouldn’t be much between the pair today. Has everything in his favour except a wide draw of 14 which is off putting.   PLACE DE CARROUSEL (11) Trainer: A Fabre Jockey: Michael Barzalona Only his tenth race and stepped up to this trip when a neck winner of the Prix Foy on trials day over course and distance three weeks ago. Won on this card last year in the 10f Prix de L’Opera from Nashwa and with top connections behind him is a lively outsider even if he is officially rated 13lb behind the top rated Hukum.   THROUGH SEVEN SEAS (5) Trainer: Tomohito Ozeki Jockey: Christophe-Patrice Lemaire Represents Japan. Only went down by a neck from the Equinox (who hammered Westover previously in Dubai) when last seen in June in the Grade 1 Takarazuka Kinen at 55/1. That represents a vastly improved effort and will need a similar run to go well here.   FREE WIND (3) Trainer: John & Thady Gosden Jockey: Frankie Dettori Dettori’s final Arc, a race he’s won six times. Bounced back to form when runner up in the Yorkshire Oaks beaten a head by Warm Heart. Place claims but hard to see her worrying the principals.   MR HOLLYWOOD (10) Trainer: Henk Grewe Jockey: Bauyrzhan Murzabayev Lightly raced three year old from Germany. Runner up to Fantastic Moon in German Derby and only went down by a neck in six runner Group 1 at Baden Baden earlier this month. Looks held by Fantastic Moon.   FEED THE FLAME (2) Trainer: P Bary Jockey: Christophe Soumillon Took the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance in July and went down by 2 1/2L from Fantastic Moon in Prix Neil on trials day when an odds on chance. Was 6 3/4L behind favourite Ace Impact in French Derby (1M 2 1/2F). Only his sixth start and open to more improvement.   ACE IMPACT (8) Trainer: J-C Rouget Jockey: Cristian Demuro Unbeaten son of Cracksman. Impressive 3 1/2L winner of French Derby at Chantilly in June and followed up when beating Al Riffa by 3/4L in Group 2 at Deauville in prep race for this. Hard to crab but has yet to race beyond 1M 2 1/2F and a few questions on breeding to doubt his ability to see out this 12F.   FANTASTIC MOON (12) Trainer: Frau S Steinberg Jockey: Rene Piechulek Won four of his 6 starts including Group 1 German Derby and Group 2 Prix Niel over course and distance. Easily best of the German trio and with his connections stating he needs good ground is a player here having been supplemented for the race earlier in the week.   CONTINUOUS (7) Trainer: A P O’Brien Jockey: Ryan Moore Supplemented for this after winning the St. Leger a fortnight ago. Leger winners have never won this race the same year they’ve won that classic so has a tough task. Opposable despite a near perfect draw.   Summary:-   Ace Impact has to prove his stamina here and at around the 3/1 mark is worth taking on as is St Leger winner Continous who had a tough enough race a fortnight ago and this is very much an after thought. There’s nothing between Hukum and Westover on King George form with preference for the latter who’s fared best in the draw. The pick though is the German runner Fantastic Moon who was supplemented earlier in the week. He has ground conditions in his favour and this German Derby winner has done little wrong in his short career. The only negative for me is his stall position of 12 but with a smaller field than usual he may be able to overcome that and can be backed each way.   FANTASTIC MOON 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 1234 Bet Victor/Betfred/Boyles    

Your most likely right ....it's one of the most intriguing arcs I've seen in ages ...so many angles and possibilities.......for me I based it on continuous wanting to go faster in the leger so I've upgraded the speed rating 3 points and then has fitness advantage too downgrading the top 2...2 points ....and ace had distance issues too ....very few horses win the arc without dist proven form  .. so for me the top four are more or less on equal footing ....so it literally may come down to who's fittest on the day and for me that's continuous ......but sometimes the arc doesn't interest me but this year it's an exciting race whatever happens
in my head I'm racing for a place ...the 1.6/1 is good enough for me to get the excitement of having a go in such an exciting race ....and he's got a squeak at winning ....after all o Brien has to win sooner or later ...right ???..
continuous ....flounder or rally !!.....roll up roll up ....place your bets ....🤣🤣 🤩

I was going to back both ace impact and continuous but opted for the Ew bet on continuous at 8/1 ....it was a risk as he may not of run but vibes were good so it was worth the risk ....had 10pt Ew at 8/1 ....happy to let that ride alone  now and get a run .... I just hope he does himself justice now and gets a place at least 

Time form 
Westover 132
Hukum. 131 
Ace impact  129p
August Rodin. 128
Luxembourg 127 
Continuous. 124 
Arrest 119
 

See for me I really liked the top 2 but the fitness thing is huge ....yes the break might freshen up top 2 but no guarantees ...2 months off is a huge ask to give 100% and you do need 100% to win the arc .....the fav is training well on gallops but if connections pay the 120000 to supplement continuous Wednesday and it's looking very likely now as seems to be impressing at home  then for me that's where the value lies now so 8/1 Ew would seem a golden bet ...will be staying on when all the others are floundering ....if I could get 4 places I'd be overjoyed ....but I doubt that 
Another thing I like about continuous ...if you.. re watch the leger continuous wants to go faster and is being held back so that bodes well for the arc and the step back ....has a lot going for it 

Could be ground dependant .....I think if it comes up gdsft to soft that gives bonus points to hukum ....if it came up close to good that would give bonus points to Westover .,...the fav isn't bad ....but usually the ground comes up gdsft and most of the favs form is in good     .plus is stepping up in trip against battle hardened trip specialists....so the price looks a little cramped for me .....continuous is still a dark horse ....may improve again so that would put them bang in there but will have to I think .....for me I'll be shocked if winner isn't in top 4 
The only negative that does really stand out for me is the last run .....almost all winners of the arc were match fit and running peak within say 30 days....fav is 47 ...top 2 are 64!!!.....that's not good ....leaving continuius on 15!!.....continuous is the only qualifier on days...that's a biggy because I think 18 /20 arc winners all ran within 34 days ...fitness is key
That boosts continuous rating a notch or two   🤔

225 newm 
Jasnas secret looks a horse on a steep upward curve ....faster ground a query but looks a speedy type 
10pt win 7/2