richard-westwood

Perfect candidate wins easily ....shame though drifted to 12/1!!....44pts returned 

Guys, dont forget to have a look at our very own racecards on the Punters Lounge
Now included as well as all the runners and form we have the previous winners and all the latest odds comparison tables.
https://www.punterslounge.com/horse-racing/racecards
Example:
Denman Chase at Newbury

 

William h Bonney 8 from 20/1 ? ...nice 

Sutton Place thrashed Supasundae who has been improving steadily through the season despite giving him weight. That was a monster performance I think and he wouldn't look out of place in a Champion Hurdle. 10lbs well in he could take a ton of stopping.

probably instructed to make it look good so he's not up in-front of the BHB Again 
Nobody will ever change my view on him richard, he's a fecking CROOK

I was following The Big Lad
Then fell out with him, then he wins his last two starts 
Long term LOYALTY and TIMING can go a long way in this very cruel game  

Sickness or Work should NEVER take any kind of priority over Punters Lounge richard.
Fix Up look sharp and fall Out before ANY court martial is considered.

Anyhow ...while we are discussing speed ratings ....50% is the maths as described above and the other 50% is course standards ....I cannot stress how important that is and it underpins the whole speed rating ...without a good standard time you literally have nothing ...no way to compare horses from different courses ..nothing works ...the published one's are so Inaccurate its untrue ...so if we are doing speed ratings then it makes sense to cover compiling course standards too ....I think we've covered this before but always worth a look 
I personally do it this way ....make a booklet of courses and distances ..I.e ling 5f ling 6f etc then go to the racing post results and start working your way back through each day until you come to an all weather track result....I personally prefer handicap results as I think they are truer run .....so when you see say a 5f race note down the time under 5f ling etc and likewise 6f etc i like to write the class the time was achieved in as this helps later then move on to the next meeting or day and keep jotting down times over say a three month period until you have at least 20 times for each distance and each course ......lets say you have an example 5f ling 
58.65
58.61
59.21
59.65 
59.00
60,35
58.01 
57.75
59,35 
58.55
58,50
58.86
58,87 
58.99
So you will end up with a list similar to this .....I then put the times in order as this helps a lot 
57.75
58.01
58,50 3
58.55 5
58.61
58.65
58.86
58.87
58.99
59.00
59.21
59,35
59.65
60.35
With a course standard you want a time that not many horses can achieve but not impossibly so ...you expect a handful to get near so you tend to find a small bunch then it's followed by a larger bunch of bread and butter horses that are running 0,6 -1.4 secs outside the standard ...,,so in the list above I'd discard the top two as top is too far ahead and second is too isolated ...,also I'd drop the bottom two also .....then I notice the top 4 left 58.50 58,55..58.61.58.65 are a nice little bunch of 4 then there's a gap to the next horses starting 58.86 and going through to 59,35 .....straight away I'd look at this configuration and know I'd want my course standard to be at58.50-58.55....it's achievable by a select few but not impossible so and there's a smallish gap to the bread and butter horses starting at around 58,80 .....just what you'd expect to find so anything around the 58.50 range would be a good starting course standard .....I'd be happy with that one ...,if you've wrote down class ratings next to the times you would work out the average class of race run lets say class 4 for ling and you want the standard to be achieve able by class 4/5 preferable so you can tweak the standard time so that it is ....job done ......in the example above 58.50 is class 3  58.55 is class 5 so I'd personally set it at 58.55 ....then move on 
 

This 4yr old gelding might only have the 1 win on his CV but he's been running with plenty of credit and his turn might be today, he showed up twice in December finishing 5th & 4th and was only just mugged on the line last time out again at Chelmsford.
Jockey Ryan Powell looks a very suitable partner for this Ron Harris trained Son of Kheleyf and he gets the leg up for a second attempt, with a nice break from Gate 8' and minimal traffic problems along with fitness on his side it would be most disappointing if he returns to Chepstow empty handed.
Ryan Powell shows up purely for this one ride and looking at the field the Combo don't have much in regard of strong competition.
17:30 Wolverhampton - TopSoil  7/1 most outfits looks worth a Bet   Playing Safe with E/W!

feature races are always worth some study time, i can study them for hours, because of the prize money most trainers in these races are sending out something aiming for wages, ok on the AW it's never going to be the yards No-1 but picking up anything around £5000+ with a horse showing at home is always going to be snapped up by them.
People / punters should never forget, animals in any given stable box are there to make money
It's a money making ruthless business

Yeah.lol...I'm just getting some mileage on the clock making sure everything works etc ....allseems fine so im going to make a strict rule to only concentrate on first 4 betting and to only play on the big differences ...i think that will be its strong point ...obviously horses dont reproduce their best two or three times in a row but i think if i concentrate only on the strongest hands then I think it can do well ....,so I'll start looking from Monday .......bring it on !!
I'll keep a record of bets too so we can see what is going on and whether there's a way it can be improved ....who knows it might surprise us !!
Last night's race was really good in fact that trust the Indian was top rated on other speed ratings I use too ....I noticed that afterwards so I can see the ratings are tuned right so ....I knew he was crap over 7f but it was a crap race anyway ...considering he was 5th and down the field and still came out top rated is fab really just shows the sheet is reading  correctly so all's good 

Yeah.lol...I'm just getting some mileage on the clock making sure everything works etc ....allseems fine so im going to make a strict rule to only concentrate on first 4 betting and to only play on the big differences ...i think that will be its strong point ...obviously horses dont reproduce their best two or three times in a row but i think if i concentrate only on the strongest hands then I think it can do well ....,so I'll start looking from Monday .......bring it on !!
I'll keep a record of bets too so we can see what is going on and whether there's a way it can be improved ....who knows it might surprise us !!
Last night's race was really good in fact that trust the Indian was top rated on other speed ratings I use too ....I noticed that afterwards so I can see the ratings are tuned right so ....I knew he was crap over 7f but it was a crap race anyway ...considering he was 5th and down the field and still came out top rated is fab really just shows the sheet is reading  correctly so all's good 

Lots of cracking reading richard and i take my Hat off to you or anyone for that matter that has the head for such puzzles, I only have a small handful of PL Members that i will read up on and You have always been one of them.
Anything out the box that gives us a little edge over the greedy Bookmaker is always worth a go, we both know we cant win them all BUT it makes for a better game if we can greatly REDUCE that risk of losing our money.

As you know I love messing about with speed calculations and although its horrendously difficult to get your head around sometimes I'd like to share to latest thing I've been playing with ....I'm mainly interested in you thoughts as to whether its feasible or ways it can possibly be improved ...either way makes for an interesting discussion this is purely for all weather at the moment as the going diff is minimal and for ratings purposes this is just showing how to compile a raw rating based on comparing to the average runner at the track 

 
First of all I set up the spreadsheet as above going from a1 to k1 with each field as so
Distance furlongs
Time in seconds
Standard in seconds 
Difference between time and standard 
Difference converted to lbs 
Rating after above 
Weight carried +- 9stone (so if carried 9-10 you would put +10)
Length down from Winner (0 if won )
Adj per length in lbs at distance ( ie 3.8 lbs per length at 5f..3.2 at 6f etc )
Final rating 
Thats that part done I'll elaborate next part in a moment 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

As you know I love messing about with speed calculations and although its horrendously difficult to get your head around sometimes I'd like to share to latest thing I've been playing with ....I'm mainly interested in you thoughts as to whether its feasible or ways it can possibly be improved ...either way makes for an interesting discussion this is purely for all weather at the moment as the going diff is minimal and for ratings purposes this is just showing how to compile a raw rating based on comparing to the average runner at the track 

 
First of all I set up the spreadsheet as above going from a1 to k1 with each field as so
Distance furlongs
Time in seconds
Standard in seconds 
Difference between time and standard 
Difference converted to lbs 
Rating after above 
Weight carried +- 9stone (so if carried 9-10 you would put +10)
Length down from Winner (0 if won )
Adj per length in lbs at distance ( ie 3.8 lbs per length at 5f..3.2 at 6f etc )
Final rating 
Thats that part done I'll elaborate next part in a moment 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

715 wolv Friday
Eljadaaf  118
Sophisticated heir 116
Plucky dip 110
Very classy race ...ejjadaaf made a big step forward last time and hard to know whether penalty will stop him after the ease of his win ...sophisticated heir has the better draw in 8 and Lewis Edmunds is claiming 7 so overall I think an ew bet on sophisticated heir at 11/2 is my favoured bet 
Sophisticated heir 3pts ew 11/2 bet365 

Anyway .....everything's working properly now so lets see how it pans out .....who knows ..a few gold nuggets might just flash in the pan 

I always found the most difficult thing wasn't compiling figures but deciding how to use them. As I did this over several years (all weather) I could have 20 ratings for some horses ......... do you use the latest, the highest, the latest one over this CD
What I tended to do was use the last two ratings and I would look for horses who's last 2 ratings were both higher than any of the last two of any of the other runners ............I'd consider those as 'bankers'
 

I've given up doing speed ratings now but when I used to do them I used a different method to produce a rating at a common distance, ie a mile
so if for instance a 6F race was 3 seconds slower than standard I would divide 3 by 6 to get seconds per furlong them times 8 to get seconds per mile ............in this case it would be 4 seconds per mile slower than standard
a 10 furlong race that was 5 seconds slow would be 5 divide by 10 times 8 = 4 seconds per mile slow
so both the above races would be 4 seconds per mile slow and would end up with the same speed rating
to get a figure I would then need to convert 4 seconds to lbs........
I did this based upon a couple of assumptions, ie that a horse is about 9 feet long so 'a length' is about 9 feet, that a horse runs a furlong in about 12 seconds so you get a furlong = approx. 73 lengths and a horse runs approx. 6 lengths per second as near as dammit
at 3lbs per length - 1 second = 6L x 3lbs = 18lbs
So 1 second = 18 lbs
use 100 as a base for standard time and subtract pounds for 'slower' than standard, add pounds on for 'faster than standard'
in both the races above the winner was 4 seconds per mile slower than standard
4 x 18 = 72
subtract 72 from 100
both winners would get a rating of 28
you could then adjust this for weight carried if you wanted and work out beaten horses rating by distance beaten and weight carried
 
Later on I developed a method of working out a combined class/going allowance but I'll leave that unless that topic crops up !
 

Try this just change to 8
https://www.punterslounge.com/bet-calculator
If they are decent prices looks like your look in at a huge payout 

As you know I love messing about with speed calculations and although its horrendously difficult to get your head around sometimes I'd like to share to latest thing I've been playing with ....I'm mainly interested in you thoughts as to whether its feasible or ways it can possibly be improved ...either way makes for an interesting discussion this is purely for all weather at the moment as the going diff is minimal and for ratings purposes this is just showing how to compile a raw rating based on comparing to the average runner at the track 

 
First of all I set up the spreadsheet as above going from a1 to k1 with each field as so
Distance furlongs
Time in seconds
Standard in seconds 
Difference between time and standard 
Difference converted to lbs 
Rating after above 
Weight carried +- 9stone (so if carried 9-10 you would put +10)
Length down from Winner (0 if won )
Adj per length in lbs at distance ( ie 3.8 lbs per length at 5f..3.2 at 6f etc )
Final rating 
Thats that part done I'll elaborate next part in a moment 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

As you know I love messing about with speed calculations and although its horrendously difficult to get your head around sometimes I'd like to share to latest thing I've been playing with ....I'm mainly interested in you thoughts as to whether its feasible or ways it can possibly be improved ...either way makes for an interesting discussion this is purely for all weather at the moment as the going diff is minimal and for ratings purposes this is just showing how to compile a raw rating based on comparing to the average runner at the track 

 
First of all I set up the spreadsheet as above going from a1 to k1 with each field as so
Distance furlongs
Time in seconds
Standard in seconds 
Difference between time and standard 
Difference converted to lbs 
Rating after above 
Weight carried +- 9stone (so if carried 9-10 you would put +10)
Length down from Winner (0 if won )
Adj per length in lbs at distance ( ie 3.8 lbs per length at 5f..3.2 at 6f etc )
Final rating 
Thats that part done I'll elaborate next part in a moment 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

As you know I love messing about with speed calculations and although its horrendously difficult to get your head around sometimes I'd like to share to latest thing I've been playing with ....I'm mainly interested in you thoughts as to whether its feasible or ways it can possibly be improved ...either way makes for an interesting discussion this is purely for all weather at the moment as the going diff is minimal and for ratings purposes this is just showing how to compile a raw rating based on comparing to the average runner at the track 

 
First of all I set up the spreadsheet as above going from a1 to k1 with each field as so
Distance furlongs
Time in seconds
Standard in seconds 
Difference between time and standard 
Difference converted to lbs 
Rating after above 
Weight carried +- 9stone (so if carried 9-10 you would put +10)
Length down from Winner (0 if won )
Adj per length in lbs at distance ( ie 3.8 lbs per length at 5f..3.2 at 6f etc )
Final rating 
Thats that part done I'll elaborate next part in a moment 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Finian's Oscar appear to be the hype horse here
The 'insiders' think he's a monster even though this is a big step up in class
Being a bit of a sucker for potential over proven ability I'll stick my pin on Finian's Oscar to outstay the Capitaine up the hill

Good call