richard-westwood

See for me I really liked the top 2 but the fitness thing is huge ....yes the break might freshen up top 2 but no guarantees ...2 months off is a huge ask to give 100% and you do need 100% to win the arc .....the fav is training well on gallops but if connections pay the 120000 to supplement continuous Wednesday and it's looking very likely now as seems to be impressing at home  then for me that's where the value lies now so 8/1 Ew would seem a golden bet ...will be staying on when all the others are floundering ....if I could get 4 places I'd be overjoyed ....but I doubt that 
Another thing I like about continuous ...if you.. re watch the leger continuous wants to go faster and is being held back so that bodes well for the arc and the step back ....has a lot going for it 

August Rodin and Luxembourg taken out by AoB
He's left Emily Dickinson in but she'll probably go fo the Cadran
Looks like Continuous might be his only runner ............. if supplemented !

630 wolv 
Suanni.  8.0 6/1 
Next second. 7.8 8/1 
These 2 are a bit clear of rest and like wolv so I'd hope for good runs from both 
5pt Ew both 
 

Wolv 455 
Flatley.  8.0  4.2 
Touchwood 7.7. 8/1 
Likewise these 2 are a bit ahead ....I'll try 6pts win flatley ....4pts win Touchwood 
 

Wolv 455 
Flatley.  8.0  4.2 
Touchwood 7.7. 8/1 
Likewise these 2 are a bit ahead ....I'll try 6pts win flatley ....4pts win Touchwood 
 

630 wolv 
Suanni.  8.0 6/1 
Next second. 7.8 8/1 
These 2 are a bit clear of rest and like wolv so I'd hope for good runs from both 
5pt Ew both 
 

Any thoughts on the arc ??
These are my ratings for the race currently ....
Hukum.  9.0. 5/1 
Westover. 8.9. 8/1 
Ace impact. 8.4 
Continuous with run. 8.4 
August Rodin. 8.3 
Arrest.   7.9 
Luxembourg. 7.9 
Feed the flame. 7.9 
Currently only the top 2 interest me 🤔

Should be decent ground for a change with a dry week forecast. I backed Act Impact when Zilzalian said at 8/1 and have laid it for my stake this week for a free bet. The Japanese one Through Seven Seas finished close to Equinox and I've seen a couple of people giving her a chance at 16/1, 
 

look at the stats for the prix neil and the other arc trials i have said previously in the recent past the arc winner usually started fav or won mostly the prix neil or one of the other trials. fully agree with your points about the fav they are 100% valid. Continuous for me would be running as an after thought which is not good by most measure.

630 wolv 
Suanni.  8.0 6/1 
Next second. 7.8 8/1 
These 2 are a bit clear of rest and like wolv so I'd hope for good runs from both 
5pt Ew both 
 

Wolv 455 
Flatley.  8.0  4.2 
Touchwood 7.7. 8/1 
Likewise these 2 are a bit ahead ....I'll try 6pts win flatley ....4pts win Touchwood 
 

Wolv 455 
Flatley.  8.0  4.2 
Touchwood 7.7. 8/1 
Likewise these 2 are a bit ahead ....I'll try 6pts win flatley ....4pts win Touchwood 
 

630 wolv 
Suanni.  8.0 6/1 
Next second. 7.8 8/1 
These 2 are a bit clear of rest and like wolv so I'd hope for good runs from both 
5pt Ew both 
 

See for me I really liked the top 2 but the fitness thing is huge ....yes the break might freshen up top 2 but no guarantees ...2 months off is a huge ask to give 100% and you do need 100% to win the arc .....the fav is training well on gallops but if connections pay the 120000 to supplement continuous Wednesday and it's looking very likely now as seems to be impressing at home  then for me that's where the value lies now so 8/1 Ew would seem a golden bet ...will be staying on when all the others are floundering ....if I could get 4 places I'd be overjoyed ....but I doubt that 
Another thing I like about continuous ...if you.. re watch the leger continuous wants to go faster and is being held back so that bodes well for the arc and the step back ....has a lot going for it 

Any thoughts on the arc ??
These are my ratings for the race currently ....
Hukum.  9.0. 5/1 
Westover. 8.9. 8/1 
Ace impact. 8.4 
Continuous with run. 8.4 
August Rodin. 8.3 
Arrest.   7.9 
Luxembourg. 7.9 
Feed the flame. 7.9 
Currently only the top 2 interest me 🤔

Wolv 455 
Flatley.  8.0  4.2 
Touchwood 7.7. 8/1 
Likewise these 2 are a bit ahead ....I'll try 6pts win flatley ....4pts win Touchwood 
 

630 wolv 
Suanni.  8.0 6/1 
Next second. 7.8 8/1 
These 2 are a bit clear of rest and like wolv so I'd hope for good runs from both 
5pt Ew both 
 

Could be ground dependant .....I think if it comes up gdsft to soft that gives bonus points to hukum ....if it came up close to good that would give bonus points to Westover .,...the fav isn't bad ....but usually the ground comes up gdsft and most of the favs form is in good     .plus is stepping up in trip against battle hardened trip specialists....so the price looks a little cramped for me .....continuous is still a dark horse ....may improve again so that would put them bang in there but will have to I think .....for me I'll be shocked if winner isn't in top 4 
The only negative that does really stand out for me is the last run .....almost all winners of the arc were match fit and running peak within say 30 days....fav is 47 ...top 2 are 64!!!.....that's not good ....leaving continuius on 15!!.....continuous is the only qualifier on days...that's a biggy because I think 18 /20 arc winners all ran within 34 days ...fitness is key
That boosts continuous rating a notch or two   🤔

Could be ground dependant .....I think if it comes up gdsft to soft that gives bonus points to hukum ....if it came up close to good that would give bonus points to Westover .,...the fav isn't bad ....but usually the ground comes up gdsft and most of the favs form is in good     .plus is stepping up in trip against battle hardened trip specialists....so the price looks a little cramped for me .....continuous is still a dark horse ....may improve again so that would put them bang in there but will have to I think .....for me I'll be shocked if winner isn't in top 4 
The only negative that does really stand out for me is the last run .....almost all winners of the arc were match fit and running peak within say 30 days....fav is 47 ...top 2 are 64!!!.....that's not good ....leaving continuius on 15!!.....continuous is the only qualifier on days...that's a biggy because I think 18 /20 arc winners all ran within 34 days ...fitness is key
That boosts continuous rating a notch or two   🤔

630 wolv 
Suanni.  8.0 6/1 
Next second. 7.8 8/1 
These 2 are a bit clear of rest and like wolv so I'd hope for good runs from both 
5pt Ew both 
 

Got lots of thoughts on the arc and i am still formulating. I will give you a starter for ten tho O'Briens got a shocking record in the arc so you have done well to suggest the top two but from what i already know Ace Impact is as good a fav than i have ever seen in the arc other than Alpenista, and i dislike favs so will try to get it beat.

Any thoughts on the arc ??
These are my ratings for the race currently ....
Hukum.  9.0. 5/1 
Westover. 8.9. 8/1 
Ace impact. 8.4 
Continuous with run. 8.4 
August Rodin. 8.3 
Arrest.   7.9 
Luxembourg. 7.9 
Feed the flame. 7.9 
Currently only the top 2 interest me 🤔

Wolv 455 
Flatley.  8.0  4.2 
Touchwood 7.7. 8/1 
Likewise these 2 are a bit ahead ....I'll try 6pts win flatley ....4pts win Touchwood 
 

630 wolv 
Suanni.  8.0 6/1 
Next second. 7.8 8/1 
These 2 are a bit clear of rest and like wolv so I'd hope for good runs from both 
5pt Ew both 
 

Irish cesarewitch 
Tower of London. 8.8 7/1 
Dawn rising.  8.5 18.5 
HMS seahorse. 8.5 33/1 
Echoes in rain. 8.2 
5pt win tower ....3pt win dawn ....2pt Ew HMS