richard-westwood

These long distance races are just a slog ....it's whoever lasts on the day but conditions are good and looks nicely handicapped so the rest is up to the racing gods .....makes for a bit of Saturday fun ....good luck all who are playing 😁

215 fairy Sporting glory. 212 123 8/1 Shadow rider. 208 120 16/1 5 PT Ew both

Eider chase Choisethenews 145 139 15/2 Ilikethewayuthinkin 140 137 9/1 Lord roco. 134 130 Top 2 5pts Ew .....Ew doubles with above race too

From earlier in week

As expected the race cut up to 13 runners which is really disappointing for such a prestigious race but good thing is my 2 are still in so they are definitely gonna be damn good value bets now when the market reforms 😁😁

630 Newcastle Mon na slieve 145 120 9/1 Elegant Erin. 142 118 12/1 This is quite an open race but these two look value bets ....elegant Erin. Has to overcome a layoff but when last seen here at Newcastle ran a fast time for the grade so if in the mood could run well .....3pt Ew both

Just looking towards the weekend racing .....always risky at this stage especially with the amount of horses that drop out nowadays but the ratings for the Ladbroke trophy have highlited two bets Charlie uberalles. 20/1 4 places Deeper blue. 33/1 Most companies are going 12/1 14/1 on Charlie but betvic are offering 20/1 both these horses have similar ratings to the front two in the betting but they have top weights and this race favours the lighter weights which these two are Deeper blue is a far riskier option .....has been off course for almost a year but it's unusual that he's been entered for this race by d pipe if he runs and computer is saying he's very very well handicapped for this race if he's anywhere near ready to do himself justice ...both look very overpriced 5pt Ew both

It's tough going currently .....a lot of the races are small and poor quality so you get bad results .....might be worth keeping an eye on the highest prize money race each day as at least you know they'll all be trying ......I remember someone using a system where they only backed horses of the jockey or trainer had a 20% strike rate and it picked some nice priced winners ....and In Theory if they have a 20% s.r then 1 in 5 should win so it lends itself to say a lucky 31 ??.…just food for thought but if you enjoy your racing then your never a loser and good luck

Commendation won 22/1 ... I had an Ew bet at 20/1 after it drifted from 12/1 were getting there .....1st 3rd 4th and 1st from top 3 .....a bit of fine tuning but it'll come

1st 3rd 4th as close as it gets 😭

222 ling Frankie's dream. 86 121 Commendation. 85 116 Toolatetonegioate 82 112 Forecasts and tricasts

152 ling Diamondonhill 93 123 Brave Zulu. 87 121 Invincible aura 85 121 Small forecasts and tricasts

240.hay Beauport is clear on both scales and could take some pegging back if he's in the mood .... 10pt win 3.5 Betfair

655 Newcastle Ormululu. 249 145 Novak ..242 140 Beale street. 240 143 These three look clear ....top two are 10/1 and 12/1 ....Beale street 7/2 .....I'll try 3pt Ew top two and forecasts all 3

Just a couple of quick ones as I'm working long shifts so difficult to rate many .... 640 southwell ......a very open race but computer has spotted a fantastic speculative value bet in this..... Mini macs 6f run has been undervalued by the bookies who price this horse up as the 40/1 outsider ....the adjusted ratings put that performance on a par with the front two in the betting ....obviously he's an outsider for a reason but value bet wise he looks off the scale here Mini Mac 5 PT Ew 40/1 pp

2nd and 3rd 😭

Yeah like sandown ....biggest field was like 7 runners ...

All the computer work is finished ....only taken a solid 10 hours 💪.....now I've just got to give it as many tests as possible and see if there's any bugs or how its performing before chelt .... Meydan 350 Mount kosciuzko rating 352 .hcap 182 Elraaed. Rating .339....hcap 177 Nyaar. Rating 322. Hcap 177 Carpe momentum rating 290 hcap 173 Top 3 are a bit clear of 4th rated on my ratings ....the 4 th rated is 33/1 ....shouldn't trouble the top 3 but on hcap ratings could outrun his price ....Interesting test Small forecasts

Go gill go placed !!....about joey 4th .....really happy with that place though as he had no form really and a layoff ..?!!

Well that's the plan ...I'm trying to get it so I can have all the ratings at hand come chelt .....that way of my ratings are strong and the hcap ratings have highlited a couple of the top 4 or 5 then they've surely got to be good value bets ... At the moment it purely indicates if the horses recent performance is good or bad but not of the conditions etc suit ....that's what my ratings include .... It's all gearing to chelt ......I'll be able to tell between now and then which bets are worth backing and which are just inflated .....it may be the outsiders are just that or it may be the outsiders are the best bets due to value .....time will tell .......but I'm channeling funds into the tricast Cheltenham pot so I'm gonna give it my best shot .....4 figure payout is the aim this year

Still in test mode .....I'm still knee deep in maths formulas .....so it gives me a welcome distraction 220 clon I don't lie 212 Go gill go. 201 About joey. 189 Top two look out of form and both are coming back after layoffs ....so no real confidence but as you can see both are really well hcapped on general form and priced 18/1 and 40/1 !!....I'll go small 2 PT Ew and forecasts all 3 just in case ...lol

Something amiss ...pulled up

As the weights have been released ....if ever there was a race that lends itself to handicap ratings then it's this one ......I've had a quick look at it and these are the current top rated horses ... Fontaine colonges 348 Threeunder thrufire 347 Lhomme press 343 Royal pigalle. 341 The real whacker. 339 Minella indo. 339 Galvin 337 Deklta work 335 Bracemansgame 335 It's still early of course ....but For a bit of interest has anyone got any of these on their radar ????

130 southwell Groovy baby. 189 First ambition. 177 Tricky race as its a novice one ....there is a well bred half brother to masar in this too in commanding prince so that could be anything ... First ambition is 9/4 but groovy babys kempton run scored a good 189 ...question is can he convert that to southwell ??.....only 2 places on offer as 7 runners ...it's risky .....but I'll try 4pt Ew at a generous 10/1 will hill

Jumps racing has more factors involved which means there's a lot more needed than just handicap ratings but I can still apply it and see .... 340 weth Getaway drumlee 243 Hurricane bay. 229 Taras hall. 227 Getaway looks very very well hcapped for this race on balance and has conditions to suit ...2m4f on soft .....so at 7/2 I'm a player on this one ...10 PT win