neilovan
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Posts posted by neilovan
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Re: WBA v Southampton > Monday 5th November
I hear you, if I was him and they fired 'me' I reckon there would be no shortage of suitors calling...Not disputing that and if I was a Southampton fan he would be under no pressure with me but they have new owners now and in this day and age new owners demand instant success regardless of if it is a first season in the league or a twenty first season in it. -
Re: WBA v Southampton > Monday 5th November
Things are getting confused here. Just because WBA have won 4 of 5 at home doesn't mean they are gonna beat saints 4 in 5 times Lets look at the odds for the game 8/11 | 11/4 and 15/4 (bet365) so home win probability is 1/1.72 is 58% or in above post 1/ 1.8 = 56% draw probability is 1/3.75 is 27% away win probability is 1/ 4.75 is 21% thats what the bookies think. Match date Home Team/ Away team 2012 2012-08-18 West Brom Liverpool 3-0 4.20 3.50 1.91 4.74% 2012 2012-09-01 West Brom Everton 2-0 3.00 3.30 2.38 5.65% 2012 2012-09-22 West Brom Reading 1-0 1.73 3.75 4.75 5.52% 2012 2012-10-06 West Brom QPR 3-2 1.83 3.75 4.20 5.12% 2012 2012-10-20 West Brom Man City 1-2 5.00 3.75 1.70 5.49% It's the lowest price for a WBA match at home this season. Last year they were price once at 1.67 against wigan and lost 0-1 :eek Neil.Thus far WBA are 80% winning at home, Southampton 0% getting points away. Everybody here think that this will continue throughout the season? Last season the worst away side in the league was QPR, which lost 14 of 19 (74%). The presvious season Wolves and Stoke were 3-3-13 each (68%). WBA was 6-3-10 at home last season, 8-6-5 the season before. They win 37% of the time at home...a bit better than one in three. Now ask yourself this question: Would WBA really win four of five games at home against Southampton if they played every week? Because that's what the odds say. This is yet another example of odds that don't match reality. To make matters worse, Southampton are a side that can score goals. Given that anything can happen, and usually does, you don't think there are decent chances for Southampton to match WBA...? A missed PK, a shot off the bar, an offsides not given? We are talking West Brom here, we are not talking either Manchester side, who win between 13 and 18 of their home matches. The draw is paying 4.1, and that's where I'll be. -
Re: WBA v Southampton > Monday 5th November
Considering back to back promotions I'm not sure how much pressure he can be feeling (maybe his own). The guy's done a superb job, and two massive steps up cannot be easy.5pts Over 2.75 goals 1.90 Ladbrokes ....... that’s Nigel Adkins’ philosophy, sometimes to his own detriment with the pressure rising fast on his shoulders. -
Re: WBA v Southampton > Monday 5th November Hi All, Been thinking about this game. There is one word that springs to mind 'ATTITUDE' Saints have their destiny in their own hands. However you need to understand a little bit more of the thinking that's going on. They have come a massive way in a couple of years. Are they ready for the Premiership ? They haven't overspent or jeopardized the clubs future in anyway. They are not overextended by big wages. SO if the ATTITUDE is 1 season in the premier league is a bonus then you can understand their style of play. They are playing in the style that got to them to this point. Give 100%, leave nothing in the tank and give it a full go ! More of you we won't, and can't ask.... Personally I think it's refreshing and fantastic. The fans much prefer it, and so do the players. Nobody wants to play defensive wall soccer, with 11 men behind the ball every week, and lose 1-0. Losing often is one thing , but never giving yourself a chance to win is another... So if the ATTITUDE stays like that it will be open with over 2.5 goals both teams to score being nice bets. BUT If the ATTITUDE changes BEWARE!!!!! They may be saying "OK we've had some fun, let's tighten things up dramatically" . Then it's a whole different ball game. WBA have not had to play often against a 10 man defence (unlike Man U, Barce, Real etc) and they may not have the skills to break it down and score goals. Nigel Adkins is absolutely no mug. He's a great manager, and the FEAT of successive promotions is INCREDIBLE. :notworthy How much longer are Saints going to allow 4-1 3-1 6-1 and 3-1 away, before there is a major shift in playing style ? Surely the adjustment is coming ...... Neil.
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Re: Chelsea v Liverpool > Sunday 11th November Chelsea v Liverpool Gotta say Liverpool looked a lot better against Newcastle on Sunday. They had some snap, and zip to their game. Looked excellent for 25 minutes, and then the game settled down. They have this frenetic energy going forward. To step up to the next level they have to channel it better. Suarez had a great game, just wish he would spend more time on his feet, instead of writhing around in mock agony :puke. Liverpool have done pretty well against Chelsea at the Bridge. Chelsea vs. Liverpool Date HT FT 2011-11-20 0-1 1-2 2011-02-06 0-0 0-1 2009-10-04 0-0 2-0 2008-10-26 0-1 0-1 2008-02-10 0-0 0-0 2006-09-17 1-0 1-0 2006-02-05 1-0 2-0 2004-10-03 0-0 1-0 2004-01-07 0-1 0-1 2003-05-11 2-1 2-1 Not much in it, and they are always up for the big games. Maybe too tough to call, and one to avoid as a punter. I want to bet on games were there is a definite edge. ie a great team vs. a bad one. One in form vs. one who is not . A team thats scoring vs. team that can't defend. These two are evenly matched..... Neil.
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Re: Best sites for stats Hi there, Really depends what you want from the stats. General stats you can get anywhere. Stats that will help you win , different story. I use my own (not ashamed to say it) http://www.soccer-betbrain.com It gives me and many others statistics that I just cannot find, in the way that I want them. Jumping all over the internet trying to find scraps here and there, drove me mad. SO I wrote my own system. I have stuff at my fingertips and I can change and add / upgrade things all the time. Perfect example. I wanna find out how a team has performed in the past at certain odds Take this weekend ..... Example: Aston Villa vs Man United bet365 odds are 5/1 | 16/5 | 8/15 so you work out the probability Home win probability: 1 / 6 = 16.6% Draw probability: 1 / 4.2 = 23.8% Away win probability: 1 / 1.53 = 65.4% For a Total of (16.6 + 23.8 + 65.4) = 105.8% So how do United do away in the last 2 seasons at odds of 1.53 or less? I go into http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/team-1x2-statistics put in the selection I want and bingo , I have my answers ... We'll these stats tell me they win 82% of the time at odds of 1.6 or less away in 2012,2011. OK OK it's a small sample only 11 games. Bet365 suggests they should only win about 65% of the time ... So for me the bet awakes interest. Neil.
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Re: France - Ligue 1 (2-4 November) These guys could play for a week and not score. One goalkeeper asked to be taken off and the other fell asleep. What a load of crap for a spectator, but good for under 2.5 goals:welcome Yeah Baby Yeah !!! why am I talking to myself:wall
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Re: La Liga > Nov 3-5 I love it when an over 2.5 comes in after 53 minutes.:welcome you little stranger:cheers
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Re: France - Ligue 1 (2-4 November) Bordeaux v Toulouse Toulouse have played 5 away and have won 3, with a clean sheet in each win. Bordeaux are a tough nut to crack at home. They have lost 2 games at home in 23 starts They are over 2.5 match goals 6 times in 23 games. This should not be a high scoring game. The under 3.5 goals is 1/5 which suggests few goals. check out free Fench ligue 1 form guide and goals here http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/soccer-form-guide-and-goals the under 2.5 goals looks solid at 1.57 on bet365 Neil.
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Re: Serie A > Nov 3-4
https://www.betxchange.co.za choose soccer and then exotic betting, then serie A End the week with a spineless performance from Palermo. It could have been 7-0. Absolute rubbish. Defend like under 14's :wall . These guys should be docked pay for non-performanceWhere did you get 1.9 for under 3.5 goals? -
Re: Serie A > Nov 3-4 Roma v Palermo Just a quickie 1.9 for the under 3.5 goals in the game. Palermo have finally woken up. last 4 away games 0-0 1-1 1-0 1-0 so over 3.5 should be very tough. You can also get the Draw and Under 3.5 goals at 13/2 on bet365 Roma vs. Palermo Date HT FT 2011-10-23 1-0 1-0 2011-04-16 1-1 2-3 2010-02-13 1-0 4-1 2009-01-28 2-1 2-1 2008-01-26 0-0 1-0 2006-12-17 1-0 4-0 2005-12-11 1-1 1-2 2004-10-24 0-1 1-1 Match stats & Goals Home Wins 5 Games Drawn 1 Home Losses 2 Goals per game 3.00 Both Teams Scored 63% Over 2.5 Match Goals 63% 1st half goals 11 2nd half goals 13 More goals 2nd half 50% Home form Date Home Away HT FT 2012-10-28 Roma Udinese 2-1 2-3 2012-10-07 Roma Atalanta 1-0 2-0 2012-09-26 Roma Sampdoria 1-0 1-1 2012-09-16 Roma Bologna 2-0 2-3 2012-08-26 Roma Catania 0-1 2-2 Away form Date Home Away HT FT 2012-10-27 Siena Palermo 0-0 0-0 2012-10-06 Genoa Palermo 0-1 1-1 2012-09-26 Pescara Palermo 0-0 1-0 2012-09-23 Atalanta Palermo 0-0 1-0 2012-09-02 Lazio Palermo 1-0 3-0 Compare team statistics Roma clean sheets 3 Palermo clean sheets 0 Roma Goals 16 Palermo Goals 8 Roma HTDC 7 Palermo HTDC 4 Roma Double Chance 6 Palermo Double Chance 3 Roma score both halves 3 Palermo score both halves 2 Roma win both halves 2 Palermo win both halves 0 Roma win 1st half 4 Palermo win 1st half 1 Roma win 2nd half 4 Palermo win 2nd half 2 Roma win either half 6 Palermo win either half 3 I reckon its a 1 - 0 or 0-1 result. Palermo will play it tough, so the 1.9 looks great to me Neil.
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Re: Agony Aunty - ball-breaker weekend of aggravating results The damn chelsea game cost me at least 1000 GBP's. Carzola don't score , I would win on the ManU 2-0, QPR 1-1 and Newcastle win , almost 5000 GBP I swear, that santi he hates me :@ . Second or third time the same guy has torpedoed me. I remember him scoring for Malaga against Real Madrid in the 92nd minute as well. Must also add in a 91 st minute equalizer against Napoli today , as another one up the number two !
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Re: QPR v Reading > Sunday 4th November
Thanks again SANTI, cost me a 2300 bet on Newcastle for a tenner. That Carzola really has it in for me, I swear he does:)The stats show you nothing other than inconsistency So if you are going to bet it, its a gamble. If you are gambling you may as well look for big odds , and couple it in a gamble bet ( don't mix a gamble bet with a 1/3 banker) I like the 1-1 draw at 11/2 on bet365 as I think it will be a really tight 6 pointer game. will take it on to newcastle to beat liverpool and Man United to beat Arsenal 2-0 (Thanks santi :wall) 260 to 1 so its worth 5 pounds :) Neil. -
Re: QPR v Reading > Sunday 4th November Wow, just finished watching the 1st half. QPR are truly terrible. This is a team that spent money and they look like 11 strangers. Boo'ed off at half time. Hughes will surely be walking the plank pretty soon . What a half of complete dross :zzz This year and last season QPR were behind at the half in 6 home games. They failed to make a comeback and lost every game. They have managed 3 goals when trailing , and have conceded 11. Are Reading good value at 8/11 for the inplay bet ???? Neil.
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Hi All Think of this thread like a poker bad beat book. Let it all out and rid yourself of the burden and the agony / aggravation of a soccer weekend dominated by upsets. Personally my 4 favourites for the weekend Dortmund being blanked at home for the first time in 35 games. Fulham losing the lead after leading at half time. 19 of 19 wins I call the 1 in 20 loss. Chelsea managing to give up a goal in the 88th minute Santi corzola scoring another meaningless 90+3 minute goal (That guy has it in for me , I swear):spank :wall:@:wall feel like I've been hammering in nails with my forehead this weekend
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Re: La Liga > Nov 3-5 I thought the damn Sociedad game was on TV, but it's not . Seems like a snoozzzzer Maybe they'll bore the opposition into a slumber, or generate an own goal through an induced trance !!!:\:(:zzz win the second half goals and lose the game bet RATS:wall Hmm the spanish Laliga forum is on fire
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Re: 3 or more goals???
Hi i' date='m looking for punters with Knowlege of the Spanish leagues, i,m looking to try a new strategy with matches with 3 or more goals scored, thanks in advance Number 13[/quote'] You can get exact goal stats here, but it is a small subscription service http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/soccer-exact-goals -
Re: La Liga > Nov 3-5
GRANADA v A BILBAO Glad to share some knowledge (wish I could have shut up regarding Fulham yesterday:wall ). A Bilbao are just a choppy team. They win drawn and lose against anyone in any order. There is no trend in their performance. WHen they get it going they are a terrific team , (see the two games against Man U in the Europa League last year) and can play very good teams off the park. Away from home they are poor , this year losing 3 of 4 and drawing 1. One thing these guys can do is score goals. They are not shy to play their open football. 4 away games 3-2 2-0 3-3 4-0 . Win draw or lose they are going at it. Granada have kept a cleansheet once in their last 16 games at home (against getafe). So to me this game has goals all over it. The over 2.5 goals is 8/10 bet365 (same price as the under) which is a good price for a good combination. Combination : One team that concedes a goal a game, and the other scoring freely. some free stats for the 1st and 2nd half of Laliga games are here http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/soccer-halftime-stats Roll tthe cursor over the W|D|L to see the opponent 8/10 over 2.5 goals Neil.Thanks neilovan for a great write up on the Real Sociedad-Espanyol game! Do you by any chance have any thoughts on the Granada-Athletic Bilbao game? Athletics form hasn´t been the best lately? Thanks -
Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November
Look the bookies are not hoping for a draw because Newcastle are 11/8 double chance. This price on Liverpool is simply based on the past history of the fixture. Liverpool have creamed Newcastle in this fixture for 10 seasons. Here are the basic head to head stats. Liverpool vs. Newcastle Date HT FT 2011-12-30 1-1 3-1 2011-05-01 1-0 3-0 2009-05-03 2-0 3-0 2008-03-08 2-0 3-0 2006-09-20 1-0 2-0 2005-12-26 2-0 2-0 2004-12-19 2-1 3-1 2004-05-15 0-1 1-1 2002-09-02 0-0 2-2 Liverpool have not scored many goals this season, but their opposition has been tough for the first three home games (Man City , Arsenal, Man United - 2 losses and a draw) . Their results against the journeymen of the Premiership (stoke, reading a draw and a win with 1 goal in 2 games), labouring to a win over relegation bound reading. Last season they finished the season winning 1 game in 5 , or 2 in 9. SO they have won 3 of their last 14 at home. (Compare this to Everton 9 wins, 3 draws 2 loses in their last 14 home games) Last season at home Liverpool had 12 games where they started the match as favourites at odds of 1.6 or less. Of those 12 games if you backed them , you won 4 times and lost 8 times. The 4 wins came against newcastle (3-1) at odds of 1.53, QPR (1-0) at odds of 1.33, Wolves (2-1) odds of 1.36, and Bolton (3-1) at odds of 1.4. So 2 of their wins came against relegated teams last year, and their only win at home this season is against Reading (1-0) at odds of 1.33. The bottom line : Liverpool is stinker of a bet at home. Forget the emotion, loyalty, blind faith etc etc, just go with the numbers. If you back them , your best winning odds are about 1.53, and they have lost you the bet 2 times for every time you win. Lets compare last season to this in terms of playing personnel. Personally I think Liverpool were a better attacking force last year. Carrol was still finding his feet, but he was played sporadically , and his confidence was down. Regardless of these facts, they were still playing 2 genuine strikers. Not 1 by himself with sporadic, out of position support. Yet they still scored few goals, and did not live up to their favourites tag. So why should they start bombing in goals now !!! The one stat that stands out is more second half goals than 1st half. Liverpools 5 home games have netted 3 goals in the 1st half and 7 in the 2nd half (only Spurs have had fewer first half goals 2) Newcastle away are also pretty dismal at scoring. They have 4 1st half goals and 8 second half goals in their 4 away games You can see over / under 2nd half goal stats for the English Premier League here : http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/over-under-goals-2nd-half More 2nd half goals is even money ( its an excellent price for a strong statistical probability). There is no value on Liverpool even if they have dominated this fixture. The overs look scary because these teams show no consistency or improvement in scoring goals The DC Newcastle looks reasonable at 11/8 The away win is now 9/2 on bet365 (shortened) but still represents a nice value bet. I have the DC already and the Newcastle win on a gamble multiple. Good luck whatever you do, Neil.I don't understand this Newcastle mania. Seems like Liverpool killed many of your bets in the past and you guys are taking this too close to your hearts. In their past few games, Liverpool looked rather solid and organized and I can't say that for Newcastle. Bookies did an excellent job once again. So bookies are hoping for a draw or Liverpool to get this by exactly one goal. -
Re: Swansea v Chelsea > Saturday 3rd November
Damn , I didnt see this post. I would have dissuaded you from taking the bet. Chelsea have won both halves of an away game 1 in 4 games this season. Last season they did it twice in 19 games. It's a brutal proposition for an away team. This season the best team in Europe at winning both halves away is inter Milan 4 times out of 5, In the last 2 seasons the best percentage of win both halves was achieved by Rangers with 42% (8 of 19). It's a brutal task, and the top teams can't do it There are about 80 teams in the top Leagues that did'nt achieve this once in the last 2 seasons. Unless the odds are simply amazing, STAY AWAY FROM THIS BET:puke:pukefound chelsea to win both halves at 9/2 @ Coral.. Is it worth a flutter? ive done a double with juve ov2.5 returns £47.50 off a £5 bet? -
Re: La Liga > Nov 3-5 REAL SOCIEDAD vs. ESPANYOL early kickoff on Sunday 4th Nov. Sociedad are reasonably good at home . In their last 14 games they have won 10, with 2 draws and 2 losses. Espanyol are a terrible away team This season they have played 4 , lost 3 and drawn 1. They ended last season losing their last 4 games. They have not won an away game in 14 games and have kept 2 cleansheets in those 14 games (both 0-0) So from a pure form perspective sociedad have the edge. Head to head these 2 teams are not setting the goals charts on fire. The last 8 fixtures have produced 1 game over 2.5 goals. The games have been low scoring with the last 6 fixtures having not more than a 1 goal spread. The fixture has produced more goals in the second half 63% of the time in the last 9 meetings. Here's a completely crazy stat. Sociedad have not scored or conceded a 1st half goal at home this season. Add in todays game as well. You may as well just show up to watch the 2nd half :rollin The second half of their games has produced 8 goals. Espanyol goals are 5 first half and 6 second half , reasonably consistent. you get 21/20 for more 2nd half goals and thats the way to go in this game. The 1.8 for the home win seems reasonable and the 1.8 for under 2.5 goals also seems like a proposition. Under 2.5 is really tricky. You need 2 dull teams, evenly matched who can't score goals.... I prefer the home win at 1.8 bet365 and if you wish to go with the stats choose more 2nd half goals Neil.
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Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 This team puts the E into Easy money :clap:nana:cheers
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Re: Spurs v Wigan > Saturday 3rd November
In a day of train smashes there are some who managed to jump clear :)Hi All, I don't really like the both teams to score and the overs is priced too low. Safest bet, according to the stats is more 2nd half goals at 20/21 The stats come from here http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/soccer-halftime-stats Neil -
Re: Fulham v Everton > Saturday 3rd November Looking at the game . If fulham lead it at the half I like two doubles Fulham to hang on and win (Remember 19 wins out of 19 when leading....) probably at 8/13 onto the Portuguese goal machine (Benfica). Benfica vs. Guimaraes (over 2.5 goals) in Portugal gives 15/10 for the double. I also think Man City will battle against WHam. City look flat and lethargic, and I like the DC 2.1 bet365 on the hammers. (Fulham and WHam DC gives 28 to 10 which works) :@:@:@:wall:wall:wall:$:$:$ truly aggravated to catch the 1 friggin time out of 20 and get my money on them. What an absolute S___t shower from Fulham in the second half. Neil.
Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November Aston Villa vs Man United MATHS LESSON :wall Bet365odds are 5/1 | 16/5 | 8/15 so you work out the probability of the outcomes .... Home win probability: 1 / 6 = 16.6% Draw probability: 1 / 4.2 = 23.8% Away win probability: 1 / 1.53 = 65.4% Man United : United are winning 82% of the time at odds of 1.6 or less away in 2012,2011. http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/team-1x2-statistics It's a small sample only 11 games. The bet365 odds of 8/15 suggest United should be winning 65%. SO United are over performing the bet365 expectations and price. Assume United don't play so great and Villa are a little bit better than expected . Lets take the middle ground of 82% and 65% = 147 / 2 for an average of 73.5% for the expected win by united. so what should the odds be to reflect this 73.5 % chance ? The calculation is 100/73.5 which gives us odds of 1.36 . SO bet365 are offering us 1.53 which is an excellent price for a Man United win. :ok Do a similar calculation for Aston Villa. The bookies think Villa will win this 16.6 % of the time. At odds of over 4-1 Villa are poor at home not winning a game in three seasons :eek MATHS CLASS OVER, :cheers :cheers NEIL.