neilovan
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Posts posted by neilovan
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Re: Chelsea v Liverpool > Sunday 11th November
2-0 is just routine win for chelsea but if liverpool come to play attacking then it will be 3-1' date=' either way chelsea have got players to win and liverpool doesn't. its simple as that. home win.[/quote'] LOL , if it was as simple as that we would all win every WEEK :unsure -
Re: Newcastle United v West Ham United > Sunday 11th November Newcastle v West Ham This is a tricky game. There is no real form (newcastle have been pretty good at home). WHam have been choppy away but with respect have played; Swansea Norwich QPR Wigan with just 1 win. So they are not travelling well. The problem here is that you are getting a price on last years form, and Newcastle have not been as good this year as they were last year I am gonna leave this one alone, but if I was to bet I would take a small bet on an exact score. maybe 7.5 - 1 for newcastle 2-1 scoreline and Spurs to beat Man City which is ok for a small gamble, bit of interest. Neil.
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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November
Quick question guys... I have man united to win 2nd half with WH. Not sure if my bet went through or not ... can annyone confirm that ? I'm just not sure how this bet works' date=' i know that they won the game but I'm not 100% wherever they won 2nd half according to WH. Cheers[/quote'] To win the second half they have to score more than their opponents , which they did, 3-1 so nice 1 :) -
Re: Bundesliga > Nov 10-11
Welcome Aussie, we're gonna give you a smack :spank in the CRICKET :):welcome to PL Aussiehoon. :ok -
Re: Bundesliga > Nov 10-11 I took dortmund in a gamble bet to win, QPR draw with stoke (evenly matched and both can't score gaols) SPurs beat manCity (they beat united so why not the double away) and manU win 3-0 over villa (arsenal could'nt score so why should villa) 350-1 for the accumulator . I'm not gonna spend the money just yet :)
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Re: Bundesliga > Nov 10-11 Dortmund scare the S__t out of me this season. At the moment they are a wild rollercoaster. When they click and are firing on all cylinders they are unstoppable. I just feel that they have come off the high of last year, and their style of soccer (very fast paced, high energy, non-stop) has taken it's toll . That game style is very demanding, and I'm not sure they have a big enough squad to fire every week , and play great in the champions league. It may just be a year of consolidation and recovery for them, while Bayern have their 12 months of dominance. I've gone off Dortmund simply because they are still being priced according to last years form, and they are not bringing it week in week out..... Neil.
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Re: Chelsea v Liverpool > Sunday 11th November
Here is the liverpool record against the top 8 teams for last season and the season before.. Last 2 seasons they played 14 away games losing 8, drawing 1, winning 5 They did concede a lotta goals roll the cursor over the W|D|L to see opponent and score http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/top8-vs-top8 Me , it's to close to call and I'll just watch it Neil.Furthermore, no need to remind how different Pool are against top-teams and against the rest of the league. The bust in performance and motivation is considerable, and they seem to feel way more comfortable against teams that open-up more. I go for Liverpool or Draw 1.80 (bet365) -
Re: Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday 11th November Was looking at the statistics again for the premier league this season. This game brings a nice 1st half matchup . Man City are the best 1st half home team in the premier league. Won 4 of 5 , scored 4 times conceded 0. Spurs are the best 1st half away team in the premier league. Won 3 of 4 , scored 5 goals and conceded 0 Mancini tends to be too conservative in tough games in the first half. Head to Head Spurs have won the Half Time Double Chance (HTDC) bet 9 times in the last 10 fixtures against Man City. Losing once 1-0 See the head 2 head here : http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/head-to-head-soccer-matchups I like the HTDC bet on Tottenham at 7/10 Neil.
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Re: La Liga > Nov 9-11 Malaga v Sociedad Malaga are a pretty decent team at home. They have been beaten 4 times in 24 games at home, only twice if you remove Barcelona and RMadrid from the equation. 3 Times in 24 games they have failed to score. Sociedad are a poor away team, winning 3 times in 24 away games, with 6 draws and 15 losses. Only A Bilbao and Rayo Vallecano have conceded more away goals in LaLiga this season. This season they have lost 4 of 5 away games, scoring 4 times in 5 games . The head-to-head does not tell much as there have been massive player changes in the last few seasons. Spanish league form guide and over 2.5 goal stats are here http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/soccer-form-guide-over-under-goals I expect MALAGA to win this game but I'm not in love with odds of 4/7 on bet365 . I DO like the ASIAN handicap MALAGA -1 which is 1/1 on bet365. Neil.
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Re: La Liga > Nov 9-11 Watching the mainz nurburg game and the betis granada game. Betis look lightweight. They have no punch at all . They look flat as a pancake with no plan B ?
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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November
I like to watch Man U, they play nice soccer. Fergie has done amazing things with average/good players. Is Darren Flechter excellent ? No, but the more he played the better he was getting. I think the same is happening with Jony Evans. He is coming out of the shadow of the Ferdinand/Vidic combination, and finding his own place in the sun. Scoring some goals, gaining confidence, understanding his role, and getting better all the time. They will get better and better defensively Villa just don't carry a goal threat. They have no pace. I can't see them scoring, and I see United scoring at least 2Does anyone really trust this united defence though? Benteke has looked pretty lively and I think he's the better of their Pre season buys. -
Re: Bundesliga > Nov 10-11 I like to look at detailed form. It's got so much relevance and it shows you everything. Scoring, defending, confidence. To me it's the most important ingredient. And a hot form team versus a cold one is a lovely match up . LOVELY stuff 2-0 in 27 minutes . Can't we play you every week ? :cheers oh-oh lets put the beers in the fridge for now :$
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Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 Hi All, BANKER BET for the weekend :welcome . Olhanense versus Biera Mar These teams are banging in goals left right and centre. Olhanense played 4 games at home , 15 match goals Biera Mar played 4 games away , 17 match goals Every home game over 2.5 goals . Every away game over 2.5 goals................. The odds are 21/20 for over 2.5 goals in the match. TIME TO :spank SPANK the bookies !!!!! check the over 2.5 goal heat chart here http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/over-under-25-match-goals The odds are fantastic and the stats offer enormous probability. WTF :drums am I missing here ? anyone , please enlighten me........................... :) Neil.
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Re: Ligue 1 > Nov 9-11
Bastia - Valenciennes This looks to be a high scoring game Both teams are scoring and conceding. Bastia 5 of 5 games over 2.5 goals at home . Valenciennes have been over 3 goals in their last 4 away games. You can see a detailed free form guide for the french ligue 1 here. See score, opponent and match odds for that game http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/soccer-form-guide-and-goals Another stat that I'll throw in. Bastia lead the French Ligue 1 in average 1st half goals (they average 2.2 per 1st half) and they also lead the league in goals per game average 3.8 (19 scored in 5 games) those stats are here : http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/soccer-halftime-stats ( :( sorry not for free) 4/5 for the over 2.5 match goals looks excellent. To me this is a fantastic price :) Neil.Bastia - Valenciennes Ov 2,5 5/10 Bts 6/10 it could be clear over.both sides score a lot but usually conced,i think we will see a nice game here -
Re: Bundesliga > Nov 10-11 Hi All, Just looking at the form guide has swayed me to take a bet here. Mainz have won their last 3 league games at home. They have scored 6, conceded 0. Nurnburg have lost their last 3 away, scoring once and conceding 8 goals. SO it's a form team against one that's out of form which is a excellent. Head to Head Mainz own them, winning the last 6 corresponding fixtures. Nurnburg have not managed more than 1 goal in 7 games. if you want to see German Bundesliga 1 halftime stats, win 1st half, win2nd half, win both, win either, tot goals by half, score both halves etc , you can find them here http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/soccer-halftime-wins So taking the head to head matchups and the form-guide into consideration a home win looks on the cards. nice odds at 4/5 on bet365 Neil.
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Re: La Liga > Nov 9-11
With the outscoring stat you are looking at all games. In home games Real Madrid, Athletic Madrid, Barcelona,Valencia, Vallodolid, Malaga,, Levante, Sevilla, La Coruna have all outscored them at home. Betis have 7 home goals in 5 games, with 6 against. Barcelona, A MAdrid and R Madrid have 15 15 13 goals . So Betis are not bombing home goals in, at less than 1.5 goals scored per game Neil.Ad to that that only Barca, Real Madrid and A.Madrid have outscored Betis so far in La Liga. Betis got some serius firepower upfront. Cant see them lose this one. 3-0 -
Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November
Personally think United are a decent shout here as they surely will have too much for Villa. However' date=' I am in agreement with Jase in that I don't fancy backing this United defence to keep a clean sheet against anyone. I don't particulary like "win to nil" bets as I feel one lapse in concentration can totally ruin your bet as early as the first minute, but given how this United side have shipped goals both domestically and in Europe this season I wouldnt be confident in backing them to keep a clean sheet.[/quote'] I'm just trying to find the best balance between odds and probability. I like united to win but the odds, even though better than the probability are still not great -
Re: Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday 11th November
Spot on. At Inter Milan, Jose Mourinho told Ballotelli to get lost, and stay away from the squad. Tevez should have been transferred last season, after his can't/won't , ' I know nothing' (Fawlty towers) nonsense . Embarrassed the club, undermined the manager and completely diluted authority. Try that one at Old Trafford :) I was trying to find the article where John W. Henry described Man United's screening and buying of players. He said their screening and psychological analysis policy was near 'genius'. When Fergie dumped Tevez off to man City everyone thought he was losing it. Neil.Then you have a couple of players in Tevez and Ballotelli who clearly aren't good for the harmony of the dressing room. Over 2.5 goals @ 1.67 - bet365. -
Re: Stoke City v Queens Park Rangers > Saturday 10th November Hi All, Look, there is no team that has played 4 tougher games away from home than QPR this season. Arsenal, WBA , Tottenham, Man City. QPR have not lost by more than goal in any match, so they have played these teams tight. Stoke have managed 3 goals in 4 games which is pretty poor. They don't concede goals, and this should be no different. It's not like they are gonna have a break out week and score 4, they don't have the personnel for that. QPR have the players, but the gelling process is still going on. They will probably get better. I don't think stoke can... Stoke are stoke :) Dull grinding soccer:zzz . I watched QPR against Reading and I thought the 1st half was terrible. Absolutely horrid, disjointed , 11 strangers soccer. Second half was a bit better. For industry and endeavour they get reasonably decent marks . Hughes will produce a tough , gritty, hard to beat team. So this will be a low scoring game. So what bets work best ? The ASIAN is crap at +.5 because 1 goal kills you, and there will probably be only 1 goal in it. The draw at 12/5 looks solid, but personally I'm not a big fan of trying to predict draws. Just too difficult. Question..... How many 2nd half goals have been scored by both teams in stoke's home games this season ? Answer 0 :eek not one second half goal. In 2011 53% of the 2nd half of stokes games were either 0 goals or 1 goal. You can check these stats free here for the english premier league. Choose 2012, England, order results by exact 2nd half goals and choose home form http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/soccer-exact-goals To me the best bet is more 1st half than 2nd half goals. Bet365 offer 11/5 for this. I will take a small gamble bet on this one and maybe couple it with Spurs to cause an upset an Man City , approx 20-1 for the double. Neil.
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Re: La Liga > Nov 9-11 A Madrid v Getafe. A MAdrid have a perfect record at home , Played 5 won 5 scored 15 conceded 6. Their over / under 2.5 record is also perfect for every home game this season. They are scoring plenty, and do concede the odd goal, which is a terrific combination for over / under goal betting. Stats for 1st and 2nd half performance can be found here for LaLiga http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/soccer-halftime-stats A MAdrid games are averaging over 4 goals , so to me this is a BANKER bet Bet365 offers 1.65 for the over 2.5 goals in this game which looks very solid. Neil.
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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November
Was looking at bet365 and United to win to nil is 8/5. Villa are struggling to score goals, United have too much fire power. I don't think the result is in doubt. United are getting better defensively. Jonny Evans can only benefit from playing more games. I simply cannot see villa scoring, united probably to win it 2-0 (training ground exercise last 20 minutes) so I like the straight United win and the United to win to nil at 8/5 on bet365. Neil.Aston Villa vs Man United The bookies think Villa will win this 16.6 % of the time. At odds of over 4-1 Villa are poor at home not winning a game in three seasons :eek -
Re: Bundesliga > Nov 10-11 Hi All, One matchup I do like is the Schalke v Werder Bremen game Match goals with Schalke at home this season 3 first half goals 10 second half goals Bremen away match goals : 10 first half and 7 second half goals. Schalke should be controlling the game, so I reckon their stats are more relevant. So the 2nd half with more goals than 1st half looks nice. Schalke have done this 100% of the time this season (5 out of 5) Stats can be found here : http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/soccer-halftime-wins choose 2012, League: Germany and order as you like. 2nd half with more goals is 20/21 on bet365 Neil.
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Re: Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday 11th November A few things to note. Man City are not playing great soccer, they are out of form, and confidence is not high. Something is not clicking, and they are just not flowing. Not showing anything like last year. Spurs have already showed their mettle by beating United at OT. They have won their last 3 away games, scoring 3 3 and 2 goals. I think they will really be up for this game. Tottenham have dominated this fixture winning 6 of the last 10, with one draw and 3 losses (2 of the losses were the last 2 fixtures 3-2 and 1-0). I'm going to add this to my gamble treble or double for the weekend and will go with Spurs to cause an upset here at 5/1 on bet365. Another stat to look at is over/under 1st half goals. City have been under 1.5 1st half goals 79% of the time , at home in the last 2 seasons (24 games) stats here http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/soccer-exact-goals Bet365 offer 8/15 (1.53) for under 1.5 first half goals. ie they expect this to occur 65% of the time The odds should really be around 1.4 for this probability (assuming midpoint of 72% for city under 1.5 1st half goals). Neil.
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Re: Reading v Norwich > Saturday 10th November Hi All I just don't see reading wining it easily. The game is too important. It's a 6 pointer, so it will be tough and tight. WHoever gets the rub of the green, takes the odd chance will win it. Norwich were crunched away to chelsea and Fulham and have run spurs , newcastle and villa close. I think it will a similar game to these last 3, tight maybe 1-1,1-0 Can't see a 2 goal difference in the game. If you are going to go for the reading win, you may as well have a shot at reading winning by 1 goal which is 3-1 on bet365. In reading's home games there have been 3 first half goals and 13 second half goals, so more second half goals on bet365 at even money looks rock solid. Neil.
Serie A > Nov 10-11
in Italian Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Serie A > Nov 10-11
6/5 for the away win for a bang in form Milan team. 6 games away, 6 wins , 14 goals for and 2 against. They are on an away roll and very tough to beat. I like the away win odds here, Neil.