neilovan
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Posts posted by neilovan
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Re: Serie A > 17th November - 19th November I watched the Roma v Palermo game, and I have never witnessed a greater s__t shower than that palermo display. They were simply useless. They did'nt try worth a lick, and I wondered if the game was 'fixed'. If Roma had played half decent they would have scored 7. A sunday park selection would have given that palermo team a close match, and would definitely have scored at least 1 goal. Palermo were s__t awful !!!!!! Neil
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Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November
French League statistics ..... Between home odds of 2.0 (even money) and 2.5 it is the lowest league for both teams to score percentage out of all the major European leagues. Last year the results were the same .... 47% of the time BTTS occurred. Other leagues are are at 73% and 2 league at 67% at these odds. A massive difference. Avoid the French league at home odds between 2 and 2.5 if you are betting both teams to score.My macro view got started because I noticed that in certain leagues, the over/under numbers were close to 50-50 but the odds seldom were. A case in point is Ligue 1 in France...it has a reputation for being a very tight league, with teams employing negative tactics and not being able to finish worth a damn. Since I've been keeping track, best-priced overs in France have gone 35-26. In Scotland, another league with a reputation for boredom on the pitch, it's 26-14. -
Re: Group E > Nov 20 (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland) I like Chelsea to get the business done here. I bet the juventus-lazio game and I thought Juventus were crap. If Chelsea can triumph over Barcelona and Bayern last season, they must surely have a good shout, with a better team, against a lesser opponent. This Chelsea team has enormous potential (to which they are not playing), and sooner or later they will click. I am more than prepared to have a small punt on them winning at 10/3 bet365
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Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November Personally I'm not crazy on the over under 2.5 goal thing. The Hammers have been remarkably consistent this year at home comparing 1st and 2nd half. Played 6, W 2, drawn 3 lost 1 in both halves. 1st half goals 5 for 2 against for a goals per half average of 1.2 2nd half goals are 5 and 3 for goals per half average of 1.3 Their goals per game average is 2.5 . I think the nolan/carrol combination is a good one. Kevin Nolan has played under big Sam at bolton , and I definitely think he can help bring the best out of Carrol. Hammers should win it, but I think it will be by 1 goal. I like WHAM winning margin of 1 looks a nice price at 13/5 on bet365 Neil.
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Re: Serie A > 17th November - 19th November Shocking call on the penalty in the inter game. ( I lost the home win but won the over 2.5 ) Does anyone have an opinion on the Roma v Torino game ? Torino have been brutal to beat away from home with 5 draws and a victory. They are undefeated away from home this season and share that honour with Juventus ....:clap Their draws have been low scoring with 5 of 6 games being under2.5 goals. 1 Win was a demolition of Atalanta 5-1 , which was a f___g spanking :spank I like them on the asian of +1 against Roma at 1.80 Bet365 Neil.
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Re: Under 3.5 and Under 4.5 match goal betting Just goofing aound with it today Took ..... Udienese | parma 1.07 fulham | sunderland 1.1 getafe | valladolid 1.05 sevilla | betis 1.1 west ham | stoke 1.18 get 6 to 10. Udinese gave me a bit of a scare but I reckon three legs are over before they begin (wham,getafe,fulham). Gonna write some code and see what the data delivers.... neil.
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Hi all, Just wondering what people think of these under 4.5 goal bets. Can a 5 legged multiple bet win and make money consistently ? Is there any kind of correlation between starting match odds and under 4.5 goal betting ? Is a multiple under 4.5 goal bet a good thing or a waste of time ? If you see under 2.5 goals as a fav against over 2.5 goals , should the match be taken as under 4.5 ? Do you just concentrate on the competitive leagues. ie Italy, France , Premier League and avoid the rest with these type of bets ? Any advice or thoughts appreciated. Any ideas or things you would include or disregard ? I am curious to bounce the stats on the leagues, starting odds , over under odds and see if there is a winning formula !!!! Neil.
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Re: Serie A > 17th November - 19th November I like the inter v cagliari game. Inter have absolutely dominated them winning 7 of last 8 with one draw. Coming in on form with three home wins in a row Also does anyone have an opinion on the Roma v Torino game. Torino have been brutal to beat away from home with 5 draws and a victory. I like them on the asian of +1 against Roma at 1.80 bet365 Neil.
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Re: La Liga > 17th November - 19th November I watched a few valencia games. They look so good on the ball (like chelsea) but just are struggling to do the business. Needed a 89th minute penalty to get over the line, but a win is a win. Now if A Madrid can just play half decent against a crap Granada team, the weekend will reverse from minor train smash to slightly in front :)
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Re: West Bromwich Albion v Chelsea > Saturday 17th November I dodged this exocet today but I'm just curious on a price for this treble ... Man United held scoreless by Norwich, Juventus to be scoreless and WBA to beat Chelsea ..... probably 250-1
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Re: Norwich City v Manchester United > Saturday 17th November
They were rules , you are adding the 'golden'. If you wish to gloat at others expense, you're welcome. What goes around definitely comes around too ......:moonShould have stuck to your golden rules Neil. -
Re: Ligue 1 > 16th November - 18th November
At least there is still one banker bet in Europe :clap What price the double . Both Man United and Juventus to be held scoreless today ??Brest v Bastia : Bastia are the over 2.5 goal kings this season. They are scoring and conceding plenty. I'll take odds here of 13/20 for the over 2.5 match goals Neil. -
Re: Norwich City v Manchester United > Saturday 17th November You tell me how many people saw United being blanked in this fixture. Honestly, probably not one person on this forum .... I never expected them to have to come from behind. Just shows you how they miss Rooney. There was no fast flow from the midfield and norwich could just sit back and absorb the slow pressure.
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Re: Norwich City v Manchester United > Saturday 17th November wow. what a F__g result. Over goals dead, handicap dead, united dead, greenbacks dead What a terrible display from United. Can you afford to be playing giggs and scholes with no legs.
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Re: Liverpool v Wigan Athletic > Saturday 17th November
Finally a NO-BRAINER works :):D . Maybe I gotta stick to more 'NO-BRAINS; stuff......The more 2nd half goals than 1st half goals in this game is 1/1 even money which is a no brainer for me -
Re: Reading v Everton > Saturday 17th November Everton have drawn 10 of their last 15 matches away in the premier league. Gotta agree they were excellent against Fulham, but they DID NOT WIN !!! They have not played a top 6 team away from home yet ( Villa, WBA , Swansea, Wigan, QPR and Fulham last week) and have only won 2 of 6 away this season, managing only one clean sheet. Also the price offered is the lowest odds in 2 years on an Everton team (so the bookies are factoring in Everton's form) Everton away in the last 2 seasons [TABLE=class: restab, width: 820] [TR] [TH]Season[/TH] [TH=width: 70]Match date[/TH] [TH]Home Team[/TH] [TH]Away team[/TH] [TH=width: 60]Result[/TH] [TH=width: 40, colspan: 3]Betting Odds[/TH] [TH]BET365[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TH=colspan: 5][/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]X[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH=width: 40]Overround[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2011-08-27[/TD] [TD]Blackburn[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]0-1[/TD] [TD]3.30[/TD] [TD]3.25[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: green]2.25[/TD] [TD]5.52%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2011-09-24[/TD] [TD]Man City[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]2-0[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: red]1.44[/TD] [TD]4.33[/TD] [TD]7.50[/TD] [TD]5.87%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2011-10-15[/TD] [TD]Chelsea[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]3-1[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: red]1.36[/TD] [TD]4.50[/TD] [TD]10.00[/TD] [TD]5.75%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2011-10-23[/TD] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]1-3[/TD] [TD]2.25[/TD] [TD]3.25[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: green]3.30[/TD] [TD]5.52%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2011-11-05[/TD] [TD]Newcastle[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]2-1[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: red]2.25[/TD] [TD]3.25[/TD] [TD]3.30[/TD] [TD]5.52%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2011-11-26[/TD] [TD]Bolton[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]0-2[/TD] [TD]3.10[/TD] [TD]3.25[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: green]2.38[/TD] [TD]5.04%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2011-12-10[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]1-0[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: red]1.53[/TD] [TD]4.00[/TD] [TD]6.50[/TD] [TD]5.74%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2011-12-26[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]1-1[/TD] [TD]2.40[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]3.25[/TD] [TD]3.00[/TD] [TD]5.77%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2012-01-01[/TD] [TD]West Brom[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]0-1[/TD] [TD]2.60[/TD] [TD]3.25[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: green]2.75[/TD] [TD]5.59%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2012-01-11[/TD] [TD]Tottenham[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]2-0[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: red]1.53[/TD] [TD]3.80[/TD] [TD]7.00[/TD] [TD]5.96%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2012-01-14[/TD] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]1-1[/TD] [TD]2.40[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]3.25[/TD] [TD]3.00[/TD] [TD]5.77%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2012-02-04[/TD] [TD]Wigan[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]1-1[/TD] [TD]3.50[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]3.40[/TD] [TD]2.10[/TD] [TD]5.60%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2012-03-03[/TD] [TD]QPR[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]1-1[/TD] [TD]3.10[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]3.25[/TD] [TD]2.38[/TD] [TD]5.04%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2012-03-13[/TD] [TD]Liverpool[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]3-0[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: red]1.73[/TD] [TD]3.40[/TD] [TD]5.50[/TD] [TD]5.40%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2012-03-24[/TD] [TD]Swansea[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]0-2[/TD] [TD]2.20[/TD] [TD]3.25[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: green]3.40[/TD] [TD]5.64%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2012-04-07[/TD] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]2-2[/TD] [TD]3.00[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]3.30[/TD] [TD]2.40[/TD] [TD]5.30%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2012-04-22[/TD] [TD]Man United[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]4-4[/TD] [TD]1.30[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]5.00[/TD] [TD]11.00[/TD] [TD]6.01%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2012-05-01[/TD] [TD]Stoke[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]1-1[/TD] [TD]2.75[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]3.25[/TD] [TD]2.60[/TD] [TD]5.59%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]2012-05-06[/TD] [TD]Wolves[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]0-0[/TD] [TD]5.00[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]3.75[/TD] [TD]1.70[/TD] [TD]5.49%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]2012-08-25[/TD] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]1-3[/TD] [TD]2.90[/TD] [TD]3.40[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: green]2.40[/TD] [TD]5.56%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]2012-09-01[/TD] [TD]West Brom[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]2-0[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: red]3.00[/TD] [TD]3.30[/TD] [TD]2.38[/TD] [TD]5.65%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]2012-09-22[/TD] [TD]Swansea[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]0-3[/TD] [TD]3.00[/TD] [TD]3.30[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: green]2.40[/TD] [TD]5.30%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]2012-10-06[/TD] [TD]Wigan[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]2-2[/TD] [TD]4.20[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]3.40[/TD] [TD]1.91[/TD] [TD]5.58%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]2012-10-21[/TD] [TD]QPR[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]1-1[/TD] [TD]3.25[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]3.40[/TD] [TD]2.20[/TD] [TD]5.64%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]2012-11-03[/TD] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]2-2[/TD] [TD]2.75[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]3.40[/TD] [TD]2.50[/TD] [TD]5.78%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] They scare me a bit , as they have only won 3 of their last 15 away games. SO I'm not crazy about the away win here. Maybe I'm discombobulated (is that a word, it should be :)) from being donk'ied to death playing poker :@ Quiet a nice pre-match summary here: http://www.premiershiptips.com/2012/11/premier-league-betting-tips-17-19-november but I't still does not have me banging on the door to plonk my greenbacks down..... I think I'll watch this one and make an in-play bet Good luck , whatever you do, Neil.
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Re: West Bromwich Albion v Chelsea > Saturday 17th November
Who is the 1/2 a man ? Torres ? I think its more 2/5th's :) . When you get Falcao you will be playing with 11.5 players .......... we didn't beat liverpool that was down to not taking our chances and pretty much playing with 10.5 men as we do for most games now. -
Re: Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur > Saturday 17th November Just a quick question ? Assume you take the over 2.5 goals for a game (any game). How can you cover your bet in play (not using betfair) if it's 0-0 at the half ? neil.
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Re: Norwich City v Manchester United > Saturday 17th November Just another quick thought for this game. United can start their strongest team in this match, because they will rest them in the Champions league (having already qualified for the knock out stage.) They will go for the jugular early, and then bring the big boys off .... Chelsea would like to be resting their squad for the upcoming massive game with Juventus but cannot afford to do this against WBA in a close game.
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Re: Liverpool v Wigan Athletic > Saturday 17th November
Liverpool at home last season played won win% average price when they won 1.580 draws average draw price 4.3 away win 4 priced at 1.460 goals for goals against [TABLE=width: 98%] [TR] [TD=width: 19%', bgcolor: white]Liverpool[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #DBD4C2]19[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #DBD4C2]6[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #DBD4C2]32%[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #DBD4C2]1.580[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #CFC2D5]9[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #CFC2D5]4.300[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #DBD4C2]4[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #DBD4C2]1.460[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #EDECB7]24[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #EDECB7]16[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #EDECB7]27[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] arsenal had the same average home price as liverpool last season (when they won) and they won 12 games at home ...Wigan +1.25AH @ 1.83 (Pinnacle) 2.5/10 An interesting stat: if you bet on Liverpool in every game this season you would have made a bigger loss than betting on any other team in every game, which proves they are continually underpriced. -
Re: Bundesliga > 17th November - 18th November
The overs have been killing me. Costs me 4 bets on Sunday. I was square for the weekend but I should have won plenty. I'm staying away from them for a while.I agree with you Neil on Frankfurt to win. I took them @ 1.79 on 5dimes. In addition Augsburg has 0 wins in last 5 away games (obviously, not scoring being the reason). I also like two Overs in the Leverkusen-Schalke match: over 2.75 @ 1.78 (5dimes) over 3 @ 2.02 (BetOnline) . -
Re: Norwich City v Manchester United > Saturday 17th November
I'm no major fan of any team, but I like the way United are playing at the moment. It's kind of refreshing in a strange way, to see them dig their way outta the crap week in week out. Maybe a morbid fascination :D, but it's sure beats these dull 1-0 away wins. I am prepared to look past a suspect defence in this game. United have a 'you score 1 we score 2 ' mentality at the moment. And in a strange way it's working. Teams are playing more open matches because they figure they can score a goal. It lets United play a more open game, where better players have more space . Also a major factor is that their goals are coming from everywhere. It's not a one team 'Suarez' factor. Last week vanPersie did'nt score and they still managed three (he did hit the cross-bar twice in 43 seconds). To me Norwich/Man U is a complete mismatch. United should and probably will win this game 8 in 10 times. They have too much fire power, and it is firing. I am happy to take 1.44 for what I think will be a comfortable win. I don't want to try and 'find' a better priced bet. (Liverpool, yes Liverpool put 5 past them) United have played 20 games away from home in the last 4 seasons where their odds were 1.5 or less. They won 75% of the time (15 times). The bookies are pricing them at 69% so the price maybe low but is fair. FORM : United are buzzing with it scoring 3 goals in 4 of their last 5 away games. GOALS SCORING : Left right and center , and center again. WEAK OPPONENT : very weak. There is a huge mismatch here. (WBA v Chelsea will be a close game, this in my opinion, won't be) ABILITY TO FINISH OFF GAMES : United have it, Chelsea don't (see game against liverpool, game against swansea away). GREAT ODDS: no, but reasonable odds for this matchup. WBA v Chelsea (form for chelsea so-so) Goals scoring (hhmmmmm not really doing it away from home) weak opponent (WBA will be tough away) ability to finish off a game (chelsea probably 4 outta 10 in this department) great odds (definitely much better, but the bookies are not expect chelsea to romp here) I like one bet of three teams all at a low price in the weekend. for me its ManU 1.44, Lyon v Reims 1.4 and PSV eindhoven 1/3 (Eindhoven and United are away but they are just too strong for their opponents. PSV have won 8 of 9 games away at odds of 1/3 in the last 4 seasons) Neil.You posted this in the Chelsea thread Neil "I am sorry guys but I have a few rules regarding backing away teams. Unless the away team has everything going for it, they will struggle. They need form, goals scoring, solid Defence, weak opponent, ability to finish off games, great odds." So it looks to me that you are breaking 2 of your golden rules. 1. Solid defence, United's defence is horrendous. 2. Great odds, the odds @ 1.44 away from home are laughable. -
Re: Liverpool v Wigan Athletic > Saturday 17th November
I'm hoping for a wigan 1-0 victory at 18-1. I simply cannot see goals in this game. Suarez is a one man team when it comes to scoring, and he has to fail at some stage .... If wigan can go and beat tottenham 1-0 they definitely have the beating of liverpool....I am thinking the same as McGlashan. With Liverpool's inconsistency, lack of depth and reliance on teenagers, it seems highly unlikely that they will beat Wigan by more than 1 (or even at all). For this reason and because Wigan have scored in their last 5 EPL matches (incl. 2 away), I see good value in Wigan +1.25 @ 1.81 and decent value in Wigan +1.5 @ 1.56 (Bovada.lv). Anyone else agree/disagree with this assessment? -
Re: Norwich City v Manchester United > Saturday 17th November I'm going for the United win here. My feeling is that regardless of the defence they just have too many guns and bullets. Eventually they are actually going to score 1st and run away with a game. This may be the weekend that they do it. Just the different combinations and goalscoring capability, makes this a banker for me. Norwich completely over matched in this game. Could get mauled but probably 3-0 for united. I'm happy with a straight 1.44 on United. Maybe a little low but this is a powerhouse team, firing on 8 of 10 cylinders . Neil.
Wigan Athletic v Reading > Saturday 24th November
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: Wigan Athletic v Reading > Saturday 24th November Wigan have been shipping goals galore at home. They have not kept a cleansheet. They have conceded 2 goals in 5 games out of 6. They have scored in their last 5 games. Reading have not won a game away and have not kept a cleansheet away. Points towards over 2.5 goals in the game which is 1.8 on bet365 BTTS is 1.6 which also looks nice Neil.