Bronxie

This year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe will be run on ground just on the easy side of good with Paris basking in sunshine this week and here’s my horse by horse look at the big race which has a staggering £4,424,779 in prize money going down to the fifth.   SISAFAHAN (stall 13) Trainer: Henk Grewe Jockey: Lucas Delozier One of two for German handler Henk Grewe. Runner up in Grosser Preis Von Berlin in August his best effort. Outsider and impossible to fancy.   HAYA ZARK (4) Trainer: Adrien Fouassier Jockey: Gerald Mosse Yet to race in a Group 1 and looks out of his league here - forget him.   ONESTO (9) Trainer: F Chappet Jockey: Maxine Guyon 10th last year in very soft ground. Yet to shine this year at shorter distances and stepping back up in trip. Has plenty of ability but needs to step up again here.   SIMCA MILLE (15) Trainer: S Wattel Jockey: Alexis Pouchin Won seven of his 14 career starts. Won three of his 4 starts this season including last time out in the Group 1 Grosser Preis Von Berlin when odds on from Sisfahan. Won last year’s Prix Neil and is no forlorn hope though has the coffin draw in 15.   BAY BRIDGE (6) Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute Jockey: Richard Kingscote Unexposed at today’s trip of 12F. Impressed when beating Candleford on his first attempt at 12F in the Group 3 September Stakes earlier this month. Smart on his day and well drawn in 5. Player   WESTOVER (1) Trainer: Ralph Beckett Jockey: Rob Hornby 6th last year when ground was too soft for him. Smart 4 year old who has been very consistent this season, winning Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in July prior to a head second to Hukum in King George at Ascot. Had recent away day at Salisbury and been to the beech last week. Can run well from stall 1.   HUKUM (14) Trainer: Owen Burrows Jockey: Jim Crowley A head winner from Westover in King George at Ascot last time and there shouldn’t be much between the pair today. Has everything in his favour except a wide draw of 14 which is off putting.   PLACE DE CARROUSEL (11) Trainer: A Fabre Jockey: Michael Barzalona Only his tenth race and stepped up to this trip when a neck winner of the Prix Foy on trials day over course and distance three weeks ago. Won on this card last year in the 10f Prix de L’Opera from Nashwa and with top connections behind him is a lively outsider even if he is officially rated 13lb behind the top rated Hukum.   THROUGH SEVEN SEAS (5) Trainer: Tomohito Ozeki Jockey: Christophe-Patrice Lemaire Represents Japan. Only went down by a neck from the Equinox (who hammered Westover previously in Dubai) when last seen in June in the Grade 1 Takarazuka Kinen at 55/1. That represents a vastly improved effort and will need a similar run to go well here.   FREE WIND (3) Trainer: John & Thady Gosden Jockey: Frankie Dettori Dettori’s final Arc, a race he’s won six times. Bounced back to form when runner up in the Yorkshire Oaks beaten a head by Warm Heart. Place claims but hard to see her worrying the principals.   MR HOLLYWOOD (10) Trainer: Henk Grewe Jockey: Bauyrzhan Murzabayev Lightly raced three year old from Germany. Runner up to Fantastic Moon in German Derby and only went down by a neck in six runner Group 1 at Baden Baden earlier this month. Looks held by Fantastic Moon.   FEED THE FLAME (2) Trainer: P Bary Jockey: Christophe Soumillon Took the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance in July and went down by 2 1/2L from Fantastic Moon in Prix Neil on trials day when an odds on chance. Was 6 3/4L behind favourite Ace Impact in French Derby (1M 2 1/2F). Only his sixth start and open to more improvement.   ACE IMPACT (8) Trainer: J-C Rouget Jockey: Cristian Demuro Unbeaten son of Cracksman. Impressive 3 1/2L winner of French Derby at Chantilly in June and followed up when beating Al Riffa by 3/4L in Group 2 at Deauville in prep race for this. Hard to crab but has yet to race beyond 1M 2 1/2F and a few questions on breeding to doubt his ability to see out this 12F.   FANTASTIC MOON (12) Trainer: Frau S Steinberg Jockey: Rene Piechulek Won four of his 6 starts including Group 1 German Derby and Group 2 Prix Niel over course and distance. Easily best of the German trio and with his connections stating he needs good ground is a player here having been supplemented for the race earlier in the week.   CONTINUOUS (7) Trainer: A P O’Brien Jockey: Ryan Moore Supplemented for this after winning the St. Leger a fortnight ago. Leger winners have never won this race the same year they’ve won that classic so has a tough task. Opposable despite a near perfect draw.   Summary:-   Ace Impact has to prove his stamina here and at around the 3/1 mark is worth taking on as is St Leger winner Continous who had a tough enough race a fortnight ago and this is very much an after thought. There’s nothing between Hukum and Westover on King George form with preference for the latter who’s fared best in the draw. The pick though is the German runner Fantastic Moon who was supplemented earlier in the week. He has ground conditions in his favour and this German Derby winner has done little wrong in his short career. The only negative for me is his stall position of 12 but with a smaller field than usual he may be able to overcome that and can be backed each way.   FANTASTIC MOON 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 1234 Bet Victor/Betfred/Boyles    

Cambridgeshire 
Dual identity.  8.9 12/1 
Eagles way. 8.7  28/1 
Killybegs warrior. 8.7 40/1 
Greek order.  8.4
Greek order could be anything but has been raised 10lb so looks worth taking on .....with 6places I'll try 5pt Ew top 3 at big prices and hope one springs a surprise 

Lots of negatives for me continuous,
1 O'brien's record in the arc.
2 hard race at donny
3 price is shocking
4 wrong trip doesn't seem to have the speed to keep up with this lot.
5 15L to find with ace impact.
6 hasn't beaten anything of note.
7 supplementary entries are an after thought (O'Brien knows his horses he never thought it was good enough 3/6 months ago so why the change of mind?)

Bit early of me i know , but in the Cheveley Park on Saturday , Christophe Soulmillion is coming over to ride Jasnas Secret for A&Y Lerner . Only ride and  can`t be coming over for a day out , the day before the Arc as well .Have a look on the race replays He has ridden it twice before and won 2 decent races easily . No stand out Horses over here yet , a little play each way maybe ?

See for me I really liked the top 2 but the fitness thing is huge ....yes the break might freshen up top 2 but no guarantees ...2 months off is a huge ask to give 100% and you do need 100% to win the arc .....the fav is training well on gallops but if connections pay the 120000 to supplement continuous Wednesday and it's looking very likely now as seems to be impressing at home  then for me that's where the value lies now so 8/1 Ew would seem a golden bet ...will be staying on when all the others are floundering ....if I could get 4 places I'd be overjoyed ....but I doubt that 
Another thing I like about continuous ...if you.. re watch the leger continuous wants to go faster and is being held back so that bodes well for the arc and the step back ....has a lot going for it 

Could be ground dependant .....I think if it comes up gdsft to soft that gives bonus points to hukum ....if it came up close to good that would give bonus points to Westover .,...the fav isn't bad ....but usually the ground comes up gdsft and most of the favs form is in good     .plus is stepping up in trip against battle hardened trip specialists....so the price looks a little cramped for me .....continuous is still a dark horse ....may improve again so that would put them bang in there but will have to I think .....for me I'll be shocked if winner isn't in top 4 
The only negative that does really stand out for me is the last run .....almost all winners of the arc were match fit and running peak within say 30 days....fav is 47 ...top 2 are 64!!!.....that's not good ....leaving continuius on 15!!.....continuous is the only qualifier on days...that's a biggy because I think 18 /20 arc winners all ran within 34 days ...fitness is key
That boosts continuous rating a notch or two   🤔

Gutted ran a cracker  bit unlucky

September p/l +£2.17
 

I am  virtually dropping each way betting from my repertoire today.
I’ve realised that most of the books yesterday were bent. The overrounds would make an organised crime boss blush. So it is win or nothing from today. Where did the 1/4 odds go on big fields? Did we all go to sleep? 
Sure if I spot an overpriced horse at 100/1 then I may relent, but the only way to fight back against the bookmakers who are shooting fish in a barrel is to play them at their own game. If there was a national BOYCOTT on each way betting in big races until they the bookmakers returned to fairer terms ie 1/4 odds over 16 runners and better overrounds, it WOULD make a difference and if punters concentrated on WINNERS they would be in a better place anyway and bookmakers would lose millions over night. They only way to beat these guys is to play them at their own game. So starting with the big race at the curragh  and in the group one race in Germany at Baden Baden today I’m going WIN ONLY No EACH WAY. It will hurt the bookmakers and the likes of mark chapman and even Tom Segal will actually have to earn their corn and report that punters have had enough. 
 
John McCririck
remember him? The last journalist to take his head out of racing’s trough the gravy train that they all appear to be on today and actually say something in favour of PUNTERS. 
In Baden Baden
I've chosen two horses I’d normally have backed each way. So I’m already getting better terms by backing them both to win because if either wins I will get Much more than if I’d backed them both each way. Winners back winners to win.
INDIA & STRAIGHT
Win

Over the years the all weather produces the most consistent and accurate results. (beware of wet weather) you can even put multiple tick boxes in for many pluses even jockeys because some are brilliant on the AW and can win from any draw others are not so good. The only problem i have with aw is Newcastle for reasons unknown but i will work it out eventually. @MCLARKE is correct to highlight "there is less variability with going, type of course etc" the one negative is that most races have bottom tier horses so its basically for the average/mug punter bookie fodder to keep them betting. One mans fodder is another mans opportunity....

September p/l +£2.17
 

September p/l +£2.17
 

September p/l -£10.11

Day 62 -£122

September p/l -£10.11

A short priced treble at 3/1, 9/4 and 4/5 meant a small profit on the day of £2.90
Out £ 1,139.50
In £ 2,152.71
Profit £ 1,013.21

Running total -£125.78
Bet 81
Busy tomorrow so had to put on early.
 

September p/l +£12.39

2.25 Don Call Me Ginger 13/2
2.40 Ches Baryshnikov 4/1
3.35 Don Continuous 3/1
5.20 Don Sonny Liston 3/1
1 x 0.10 w L15 & 1 x 0.50 w acca poss ret 427.40
 

September p/l +£12.39

September p/l +£12.39

September p/l +£12.39

It wasn't so long ago that i used to frequent bookies establishments, my local was a Willy Hills as were most in this town, Saturday mornings there used to be a group of us old and young that were regulars we used to be in for a couple of hours early doors for the two early dog meetings 11:00 am Crayford and Monmore if i remember correctly, and to put our horse bets on. Staff were brilliant brewed up no problem, anyone winning would buy the chips (chippy round the corner) for the staff as well we all used to have a good laugh and banter, take the piss and constantly wind each other up about everything and everyone from one built like a brick shit house but had a squeaky voice, another who had a bad stutt stutt stutter, me being a deaf as a door nob, all this disappeared with the smoking ban, one week we were all having a good laugh and pretty soon it was down to, pop in put the days bets on and bugger off. Happy days never to return .

Gregory ran too far behind continuous to see him reversing form when the winner was on the bit and Gregory was all out .....my idea of winner is continuous      ....he's ran well in all the trials ....slight concern about ground as he looks to prefer fast but he won on soft early on so I can't see it being a problem ....another winner for o Brien imo ....but 9 runners for a 700000 race ?..  and piss poor prices really .....I'll just be watching.....another example of racing cutting its own throat again for me ...soon there will only be o Brien ..haggas  and gosden horses in these big races ....that's of no interest to me ....cmon racing get your s*** together