Bronxie

Fos las 
2:05
Heartrate
win
comes here from winning a maiden at Tipperary back in may.
Joined the Loughnane yard and several winners have come out of that race and looks on paper one of the likeliest winners on handicap debut.
* a big drifter on course which means he is an unlikely winner on debut after all, as the crushing lord comes in for sustained money 7/4 into 5/4.
I’ve gone each way   as they are cantering slowly to the start in the foggy conditions. In order of lead by the crushing lord and lord p with heartrate in third!!

Later rather than sooner!
 Doncaster 1:50
Commander Crouch is the key to this race. His win last night franks the form of
chic columbine 
win
who readily beat him by over 3 lengths last time and comes here likely to appreciate the give in the ground. I don’t normally back penalty carriers for obvious reasons, but this runner looks capable and willing to defy the new mark here. Also gets this on the five year draw data and occupies last years winning stall.
 

Maybe a bit early in the week to be talking about the Leger , but do think Desert Hero has it all going for it . Versatile ground wise , won well at Ascot , got no run at all at Goodwood until late on , but won the race in a couple of strides when out in the clear .Horse with a turn of foot often wins this race as when Eldar Eldarov triumphed last year .

You need to stay the distance on this one, I am down £250 over my last 271 lucky 15s

September p/l +£27.39

September p/l +£27.39

September p/l +£27.39

September p/l +£27.39

September p/l +£27.39

September p/l +£27.39

September p/l -£46.80

September p/l -£46.80

Haydock L15 and Acca
3.00 Aztec Empire 4/1
3.35 Khaadem 20/1
4.10 Look Out Louis 10/1
4.45 Portland 8/1
1 x 0.10 L15 and a 0.25 ew Acca = 2 points poss ret 4202.90

September p/l -£16.80

September p/l -£31.80

People talk about value which as we know is very subjective but if i told you a horse won a very competitive handicap in a very good time 16 days ago achieving  a high speed figure and is running at a track it does well at was on offer at 20/1 is that good value or a bit Ropey?

Day 48 -£84.50

Running total -£107.42
Bet 76
 

September p/l -£31.80

Khaadem                                      3 35 Hay/       1/40th of a pt ew      33/1          5th
Forza Orta                                    3 00 Hyd/       1/40th of a pt ew      14/1
Believing                                       3 35 Hyd/       1/40th of a pt ew      40/1          3rd
Cadeau Bella                                2 45 Lep/        1/40th of a pt ew      50/1
Carrytheone                                 5 40 Lep/        1/40th of a pt ew      28/1
Ice Cold In Alex                            5 40 Lep/        1/40th of a pt ew      66/1
Arecibo                                          4 10 Hyd/       1/40th of a pt ew      16/1          3rd
Nordic Empire                              4 25 Tsk/        1/40th of a pt win      9/1
Ropry Guest                                  2 35 Asc/        1/40th of a pt ew       20/1
Escobar                                          2 35 Asc/        1/40th of a pt ew       36/1
Nibiru                                             5 05 Lep/        1/40th of a pt ew       40/1

Orbaan 16/1 PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3 Win or Each Way / 14:35 Ascot Each Way Odds 1/5 Places 1-2-3-4   EXTRA PLACE BEST ODDS GUARANTEED   First View 6/1 PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3 Win or Each Way / 14:10 Kempton Each Way Odds 1/5 Places 1-2-3-4   EXTRA PLACE BEST ODDS GUARANTEED   Euchen Glen 10/1 PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3 Win or Each Way / 15:00 Haydock Each Way Odds 1/5 Places 1-2-3-4   EXTRA PLACE BEST ODDS GUARANTEED   Run To Freedom 14/1    Win or Each Way / 15:35 Haydock Each Way Odds 1/5 Places 1-2-3   0.2pts e/w lucky 15  BOG 6pts invested

A bit of excitement with Irrelevant and Piloto Pardo winning but alas nothing more. Still, a £16 profit on the day.
Total out £ 1,085.50
Total in £ 2,125.05
Profit £ 1,039.51

September p/l -£19.80

335 hay 
Very Very classy and interesting race ....obviously shaquille will be hard to beat but no horse is unbeatable in these 6f sprints ....blow the start and lose 2 lengths or draw bias and it can all be over so no value in shaquille price ....this is how I picture the race 
Shaquille   118 + 
Run to freedom  116 gs 
Khaddeem   116 gf 
Run to freedom would probably love just a drop of rain but is still capable on good ...khaddem is 7 yo and only seems to run his best once or twice a,season now but very Very capable when he plays his ace .....bet 365 are offering 18/1 khaddem and 8/1 Run to freedom (3 places without shaquille and spycatcher ) .... that sounds like an interesting bet now ....5pt ew both khaddem and Run to freedom 

A bumper afternoon’s racing with ITV showing ten races. I’m quite keen on First View (2.10 kempton) and Caius Chorister (3.00 Haydock) and recommend an each way double. I’m away for the next week so I’m afraid there will be no analysis for Doncaster. Good luck this afternoon everyone.     Kempton 1.35 A decent renewal on the cards here for the 1M 4F Group 3 September Stakes. Israr has to shoulder a 5lb penalty for his latest win and has never raced on a synthetic surface on the racecourse and this may fall to the Sir Michael Stoute trained Bay Bridge who is the best in here by 11lb and more. The only issue with him is the trip as he’s never raced at 12F. If he stays he wins it’s as simple as that in my opinion and expect Richard Kingscote to hold on to him for a late dash in the Kempton straight.   BAY BRIDGE 1 point win @ 5/4 William Hill   Haydock 1.50 Eight go to post for this Group 3 Superior Mile Stakes and with the ground likely to be riding on the fast side looks ideal for the Richard Hannon trained Chindit. One mile on fast ground are his optimum conditions as he showed when chasing home Modern Games in the Lockinge at Newwe bury back in May when he tried to take a chunk out of William Buick’s arm when the winner came past! 7F on easy ground at Newbury last time was never going to suit and back with ideal conditions he looks the pick with current favourite Light Infantry preferring some juice in the ground.   CHINDIT 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365   Kempton 2.10 The series final of the London Mile Handicap features a full field of fourteen and although the race has an open look about it I feel theres a decent each way bet here in last year’s victor First View. He loves this track with form figures of 12112 and actually races here off of a 2lb lower mark than when winning this last year under useful apprentice Christian Howarth who’s back in the plate today. He teed up for this with a slightly unlucky runner up over course and distance to Baltimore Boy 17 days ago. He’s drawn out in stall 11 which hopefully will give young Howarth a chance to take a nice position behind the leaders before striking inside the final furlong.   FIRST VIEW 2 points each way @ 6/1 Coral 1/5th 1234   Haydock 2.25 A valuable 1M 6F three year old handicap features five horses that contested the Melrose Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting a fortnight ago and despite the turnaround in the weight’s it’s the Irish challenger Denmark that catches the eye. Still holding St Leger, Arc De Triomphe and even Melbourne Cup entries this Aiden O’Brien trained son of Camelot ran a screamer to chase home the smart winner Middle Earth, finishing just 1 3/4L behind the Gosden winner. He’s up 5lb for that effort but can go one one better here with the Haggas runner Naqeeb the big danger.   DENMARK 1 point win @ 3/1 bet365   Ascot 2.35 A valuable 7F class 2 handicap has an open look about it although interestingly the stalls are to be positioned on the stands side which may give the higher drawn horses an advantage on the near side rail. James Fanshawe’s lightly raced five year old Hickory ran a blinder in a first time visor in the International Stakes when runner up to Baradar in a first time visor under Saffie Osborne. Hopefully well drawn on the rail in fourteen and with Osborne in the saddle again he can go one better today.   HICKORY 1 point each way @ 7/1 Coral 1/5th 1234   Leopardstown 2.45 An excellent renewal of the Group 1 Matron Stakes with thirteen fillies and mares attending. The favourite and the one they all have to beat is Dermot Weld’s Tahiyra who’s only defeat in her five run career came when just touched off by Mawj in the English 1000 Guineas first time out this season on soft ground. She’s gone on from there to take the Irish 1000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and will be hard to beat today.   TAHIYRA 2 points win @ Evens William Hill   Haydock 3.00 A bumper field for the valuable 1M 6F handicap Old Borough Cup with fifteen lining up. A tricky race but anyone that saw David Menuisier’s Caius Chorister run an eye-catching sixth in the Ebor will want to be with him today. He found trouble in running but finished to some effect affect to be nearest at the finish. Off of the same handicap mark and with conditions today ideal he looks sure to run a big race for the likeable Frenchman Menuisier. Aztec Empire is dropped in trip and is the one I fear the most.   CAIUS CHORISTER 2 points each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Ascot 3.10 An interesting valuable 12F three year old only handicap that features nine promising types where the Charlie Appleby trained top weight Victory Dance may be too classy for his rivals. Thought to be a classic contender last season he’s not made that grade but in his first handicap he can take this off off of a mark of 102 now stepping up in trip in first time blinkers with William Buick doing the steering . Outsider Perfect Play can outrun his odds and chase him home.   VICTORY DANCE 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 123   Leopardstown 3.20 A cracking renewal of the Group 1 Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes features the enigmatic Auguste Rodin who flopped badly at Ascot and last year’s one-two in Luxembourg and French traveller Onesto. They all have chances but it’s the Roger Varian trained King Of Steel that catches my eye. Runner up in the Epsom Derby prior to an emphatic victory at Royal Ascot he ran well in third place in the King George at Ascot when last seen. This is only his sixth career start and he is the selection with the drop to 10F looking to suit as he is not short of speed.   KING OF STEEL 1 point win @ 11/4 bet365   Haydock 3.35 Shaquille will be hard to beat here in this Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup run over 6F but has been priced accordingly and a bit of each way value may lie with Karl Burke’s Showalong, who has conditions to suit and may well be very well drawn in stall 18 of 18. With the stalls in the centre it’s quite possible that Clifford Lee may drift over to the near side fence which was so beneficial in the Sandy Lane Stakes earlier in the year when Little Big Bear bagged the rail. He was only a couple of lengths behind Shaquille in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and has shown his well being with a win at York since.   SHOWALONG 1 point each way @ 25/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234