anaconda69

Abate                                         1 45 New/                   1/40th of a pt ew      28/1
Pisanello                                   2 40 Thk/                     1/40th of a pt ew      12/1
Expressionless                         4 55 Thk/                     1/40th of a pt ew      14/1
Captain Wierzba                      4 30 Gwd/                   1/40th of a pt ew       25/1
Comfort Zone                          5 25 Pun/                    1/40th of a pt ew       33/1
Mustazeed                               2 20 New/                   1/40th of a pt ew       25/1    - N/R

I've tried to calculate the fair odds from my systems but invariably it throws up a lot of the outsiders as value bets
For the 2000 guineas probably every horse apart from the favourite would be a value bet

I think the best thing about systems is throwing up a quick short list if you don't have the time or inclination to spend ages looking at the form for a days racing.......... use your system to get 3 or 4 'posibles' in a field and then look at those horses in more depth
Similar with 'Trends' ......... a quick way to eliminate a lot of runners in big fields
As long there's some logic behind the system or the trends then it's fair enough........ you have to accept that if you're quickly eliminating runners without due study then you're going to miss some winners !
 
 

I hope that I am transparent in my systems, I always state my profit or loss in the various threads I post on.
By your definition I am not smart because I will take the outcome of my system and bet on it regardless. So called negatives can in fact be positives if they are over compensated for in the betting.
You are right though, most systems fail. I always test mine on a years worth of data to see if it still makes a profit. I will then calculate the p-value to ensure that the results are not driven by chance. Even then I will bet small amounts until I have a sufficient bank for that system.

830 kemp 
Cajetan.  8.2 2/1 
Inv.speed 8.0 
Want want 8.0 18/1 
Bit of a risky one this ......cajetan could be anything trying kempton first time ....some horses just don't take to it ...invincible speed won well last time but hcapper hammered him 10lb so much more on plate today ... Computer said WANT WANT would be Ew value bet at 8/1 and he was around that last night but has drifted to 18/1 !!!!..     now that sounds negative but if it was value bet at 8 then 18 looks a gift .... I'll try small 3pts Ew in case there's a reason it's drifted 

If u can beat a price even at the exchange Ur winning long term. 

Well lets take different types of punters. I assume we are talking about singles here.
Type 1 The analysers or ratings creators (me) I expect my horse to win i never pick an ew (that's different than having an ew bet because a daft sod would be a fool to back win only on a 33/1 shot, again me) so would have to be confident in my selection anyway so i would want the bigger price.
Type 2 The casual punter that just likes to have a bet, he might choose to have a win bet or an ew depending on its price if he is betting for fun rather than profit (a winning bet would be nice) could choose either.
Type 3 The punter that knows nothing about horses (you 🤣) and shouldn't really be having a bet on gg's should take the extra places in both cases.
Type 4 The shit bag punter that is scared of losing money that would go EW on a 3/1 shot type, he would defo pick both the extra place options.
Not applicable to Type 5 punters, The don't give a f**k punter that can't even be bothered reading past the list of runners let alone the "options"
 

Another variable is that Sky do not offer BOG.
Another feature is the "shape" of the betting, if the favourite is short priced then there is likely to be more benefit of betting each way

Had 2 L15's on the daily = 3 pts
2.45 Ayr Smalleytime 1 pt win at 8.2
3.15 Ayr Bustaam 1 pt win at 7.60
= 5 pts staked today
No Naps today

On my AW system I have found that forecast odds of 7/2 to 13/2 produce the best returns.

I have 80% SR on top 4 rated. Obviously the profit comes when a bigger odds winner wins... Could say ye just back the bigger but shorter keeps the bankroll stronger also and some of them drift bsp wise.

I'm not worried too much at the moment, I am very much in the learning process at the moment and the I suspect the finished selection process will be very much different to what I am doing at the moment.

Sat was odd day for me and friends, nothing much to stat so wouldn't worry too much!

Does the business ....beating the short price fav ....making a nice profit on the day 

Ew 5th ....was hoping for a better run but cest la vie

Sandown 1.50 A bumper field to start the day’s ITV action with a maximum twenty runners going to post for this class 2 2M Novices’ Championship Handicap Hurdle. Many are making their handicap debuts so have the potential to be better than their mark although the one I like has already had a run in a handicap. Sam Thomas’s Steel Ally followed up his cosy Wincanton win by pushing subsequent Cheltenham winner Doyen Quest to a neck at Newbury last month with the third, some 9 3/4L back in third, Imperial Saint also winning since to further boost the form. He has been shunted up 7lb for that fine effort and can run well each way. Also on the shortlist is John O’Shea’s Maasai Mara who looks well treated in his first handicap in first time cheek pieces. I can see him running well also.   STEEL ALLY 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 MAASAI MARA 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5t 12345   Leicester 2.05 The feature race of the day at Leicester, and covered by the team at ITV is the 1M class 2 King Richard III Cup Handicap. Last year’s ready 4 1/4L winner Al Mubhir has his ground again and although 7lb higher than that win is most definitely the one they all have to beat. Trained by the in form William Haggas that was his only victory last season and he has been gelded since last seen. He did however come into last year’s race having had a run when 5th in the Lincoln and although the most likely winner is no value at his current odds of around 9/4. I’ll take him on with Tony Coyle & Keane Wood’s mud loving Thunder Roar. A dual winner in the mud last Autumn at York and Doncaster he went down by just half a length to the re-opposing Look Back Smiling (also declared at Haydock) and is a pound better off today. He looks sure to be thereabouts today under Cam Hardie and can be backed each way.   THUNDER ROAR 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Sandown 2.25 Just the seven face the starter for this Grade 2 bet365 Oaksey Chase run over 2M 6 1/2F. The best in at the weights by a pound is Patrick Neville’s The Real Whacker who drops in trip and, according to his trainer in the trade press earlier in the week, will relish the drier ground. He looks the most likely winner to me. Paul Nicholl’s Hitman sports blinkers for the first time and at the weights is the likely danger with the Willie Mullins representative Easy Game having to carry a 6lb penalty and also sporting first time cheek pieces. Not a very inspiring race with all bar Fantastic Lady sporting some form of headgear but the pick is The Real Whacker to small stakes.   THE REAL WHACKER 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365   Haydock 2.45 A ten runner 7F class 2 handicap which is covered by the ITV cameras today and it really does have an open look about it. With the ground riding very soft all bar last year’s winner Rainbow Fire should be in their element. Katie Scott’s Gweedore was runner up last season and has won first time out for the last two seasons and has to be on the shortlist with the selection being the Richard Hannon trained Tacarib Bay. His last five starts have all been on the all-weather which include a 6F listed win last November at Newcastle but he’s equally as effective on the turf as he proved when running some good races in defeat in big handicaps last summer. He obviously likes this track as he’s won two of his three visits here and is currently on the same handicap mark as when scoring over course and distance in July 2022. He looks good each way value for a trainer who’s been amongst the winners recently especially if able to find a firm paying four places.   TACARIB BAY 1 point each way @ 9/1 Betfred 1/5 1234   Sandown 3.00 The 1m 7 1/2f Grade 1 Celebration Chase looks a match between Willie Mullins’s Cheltenham flop El Fabiolo and Nicky Henderson’s impressive Aintree winner Jonbon with officially just 5lb between the pair in favour of the former. That pair are rated 6lb (Edwardstone next best) and more better than the other five and in what is a race to saviour can be won by Nicky Henderson’s Jonbon who is unbeaten at the Esher track in three starts here including in this race last year. He looked good over further last time but also has speed and may actually cope with the drying ground better than the Mullins runner who has raced exclusively on soft ground and of course has the poor run at Cheltenham to put behind him. It’s hard to split the pair so at the prices the pick will be J P McManus’s Jonbon who will be ridden by Nico De Boinville.   JONBON 1 point win @ 9/4 bet365   Sandown 3.35 A bumper maximum field of twenty line up for the 3M 4 1/2F bet365 Gold Cup (hands up if you’re old enough to remember the race as the Whitbread Gold Cup). Current favourite is last year’s winner Kitty’s Light who has to be part of the staking plan having run so well when leading over the last in the Grand National a fortnight ago. The quick turnaround doesn’t worry me as he won the Scottish Grand National and this contest with a week between them last year. He’s 5lb higher than last season but the ground appears to have come right for him and Christian Williams’s eight year old looks sure to be thereabouts. An outsider who I feel is overpriced is Anthony Honeyball’s Sam Brown who is arguably the best handicapped horse in the field as he goes up 4lb in future handicaps for his highly creditable run at Aintree a fortnight ago when runner up to Cruz Control under today’s pilot Freddie Gingell. He’s the oldest horse in the race by two years plus and maybe that’s why he’s been neglected in the betting but he had one of today’s rivals in Kinondo Kwetu just under 7L behind that day and on the same terms is a bigger price. Many others have chances but it’s Kitty’s Light and Sam Brown for me.   KITTY’S LIGHT 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345 SAM BROWN 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

Rainbow Fire                                                      2 45 Hay/      1/40th of a pt ew         16/1          - 3rd
An Brandan Frasa                                             1 50 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1
Rapper                                                                3 35 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          40/1
Will Carver                                                          5 20 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1
 
 
 
 
 
P/L  + 177 Pts

Horse? Obsessed sorry seen now ha ha 

Only other race I could find a potential bet was 7.00 wolv .......computer was saying if the full 8 run and I could get 11/2 or better then ...SO OBSESSED is a value bet Ew .....bet 365 have just priced up first at 6/1 ....so I'm happy to take that and play ....5pt Ew 🙂

As im working ...just having a n early look at the weekend racing .....big race of weekend is bet365 gold cup 
Kinindo kwetu. 9.0 16/1 
Amirite. 8.9. 10/1 
Sam brown 8.4 33/1 
Le Milos. 8.3 8/1 
Does he know. 8.0 28/1 
A very difficult race to rate tbh as a lot of these have only ran on soft since Xmas and now the ground has changed dramatically it's difficult to know where they will be on the tree ........so I've changed tack slightly... with this race .....I've rated as normal .....then historically it's been very difficult for horses over say 11-5 in this race so that cuts out the bottom 3 .....leaving the top 2 again so that's good enough for me .....I'm not saying the others can't win .....in fact I think Sam brown and does he know look overpriced on select form and I could see them placing at big prices but for me I'm looking for value and the top 2 tick the boxes 
5pt Ew top 2
 

210 epsom 
Looking for Lynda  8.5 9/1
Mountain peak. 8.5 10/1
Clearpoint.   8.2 
Tricky race with lots of questions marks but I'll try 2pt Ew on top 2 as they look a bit of value 

505 epsom 
Mr baloo likes it here at epsom ...has a fitness edge having won at kemp and has the services of Alec voikhanksky who's good for his claim of 3lb ....should run well 
5pt win 100/30 

222 pont 
Madame Christine has been flagged by the computer as a potential value bet ......has no sparkling form as such and no recent run so literally could do anything today ....but will hill offering 11/1 so that's enough for a speculative 2pt Ew for a bit of fun on a quiet day 😄 

Wow 
..that was a bit of a head scratcher race ....no where to be seen .... 1.5 PT profit on the day ....it's still more than I started 🤣

Forza Orta                                             7 05 Ths/               1/40th of a pt ew  20/1
Expressionless                                     5 00 Neb/              1/40th of a pt ew   16/1
We'llhavewan                                       3 35 Ayr/               1/40th of a pt ew    44/1
Iron Bridge                                            3 35 Ayr/               1/40th of a pt ew    33/1
Racingbreak Ryder                               3 15 Gw/               1/40th of a pt ew    36/1
First Street                                             2 25 Ayr/               1/40 th of a pt ew   14/1
Fast Tara                                                2 45 Cur/               1/40th of a pt ew    22/1
 
 
P/L   +  177.35pts