thecurlyone1

did i lost one post??
i thought i already post it 
 

5/12/2015 BRIGHTON CHARLTON 1-0 4.95 20.20 7.00 30.72 5.12       5/12/2015 BURNLEY PRESTON 1-0 9.83 10.18 7.00 30.86 5.14       5/12/2015 LEEDS HULL CITY 0-1 3.77 26.53 7.20 31.00 5.00       5/12/2015 ROTHERHAM FULHAM 1-1 3.58 27.90 7.60 31.14 4.72        

I don't know is that's the correct thread for this post....fell free to move...
rules:
I'll calculate correct score using poison distribution and compare odds with BF.
Just league matchs on leagues with 10 or more games played.
Initial bank will be 1000 units and each bet will take 3% bank.
Odds under 10 to minimize layabilitie.
 
I don't pretend to win every bet, but make a profit by paying under probabilitie.
I'll start with a match in less than one hour because i think my first pick will fail ;(
 

DATE HOME AWAY SCORE % ODDS BF LAY ODD RISK STAKE RESULT PROFIT BANK 30/11/2015 RUBIN SPARTAK MOSCOW 1-1 8.63 11.59 7.60 30.00 4.55     1000.00  
GL.
 

No joy yesterday with the hosts gaining most cards.
8 winners from 15 bets this season, profit +1.5 points with a yield of +10% and overall +20.58 with a yield of 23.66% from 87 bets.

Today's 
 
Everton Asian handicap cards 0
@ 1.85 with 365 0.5 pt

Thanks bud. Glad this one is doing well, coz this is the one I'm actually risking money on haha

0.5 pt @ corals 23/20

0.5 pt @ corals 23/20

Sorry Harry. Had a call out with work. But yes that's the bet 

harry im wroking late today , ill see if i can sign up late this evening or first thing in the morning mate :)

First weekends selections. Total iability on al of these comes to -£450 . Fingers crossed
20.11. bel gent westerlo 6.2 -£52.00 21.11. aus ried grodig 3.7 -£27.00 21.11. bel lokeren anderlecht 3.75 -£27.50 21.11. den nordsjaelland sonderjyske 3.5 -£25.00 21.11. eng everton aston villa 4.3 -£33.00 21.11. eng man city liverpool 4.2 -£32.00 21.11. ger frankfurt leverkusen 3.85 -£28.50 21.11. sco ross co motherwell 3.8 -£28.00 22.11. aus salzburg sturm graz 5.5 -£45.00 22.11. den copenhagen viborg 4.9 -£39.00 22.11. den aarhus brondby 3.5 -£25.00 22.11. ita udinese sampdoria 3.5 -£25.00 22.11. swi st gallen basel 4.2 -£32.00 22.11. tur trabzonspor genclerbirligi 4.1 -£31.00

I've just cancelled my subscription. May still buy the occasional Saturday edition anyway but if anyone is currently subscribing or fancies signing up to the no-obligation free trial, feel free to take up the baton for a while on here. If not, I'll do my best to keep it ticking over.

Dan Childs
3pts Sheff Wed 6/5 at Charlton LOST
2pts QPR 13/10 v Preston LOST
2pts Gillingham 19/20 at Stevenage LOST
2pts Peterborough 5/4 DNB AT Burton WON
Stake 9
Return 4.5
Ytd +14.05
44 bets 20 won 21 lost 3 push
Stake 98 yield 14.3%

Bet lost, just 9 corners I believe.
7 winners from 12 bets this season, profit +2.35 points with a yield of +19.58% and overall +21.43 with a yield of 25.51% from 84 bets.

Nice weekend for the o2.5s, changes to the system seem to have helped a bit. Not so good for o3.5 but that's a bit of a side project.
03.10.engman city newcastle1.49£4.472.20£11.416 103.10.engchelseasouthampton2£9.503.55£24.251 303.10.scodundeemotherwell2.1£10.463.80-£10.002 103.10.scoheartskilmarnock1.77-£10.002.90-£10.001 104.10.swegothenburghalmstads1.63-£10.002.54-£10.001 104.10.swehelsingborgelfsborg1.74£7.042.86-£10.002 104.10.swekalmardjurgarden2.08£10.273.70-£10.000 3-------------WEEKLYTOTAL £21.74 -£14.34          -------------OVERALLTOTAL -£30.67 -£79.84  

6 winners from 9 bets this season, profit +3.6 points with a yield of +40% and overall +22.68 with a yield of 28% from 81 bets.

Nice start to this, hopefully keeps going. Actually that wasn't the strongest barca side I've ever seen and I think they may lose a few this season. Fingers crossed...........
 
03.10.SEVILLAbarcelona4.2£30.402 1      TOTAL   £33.68 

Okay, so I've done a bit more detailed work with my past results (including the ones results from before I posted this system up here) and it's thrown up some surprises to me. I separated the results into the individual leagues, to see if certain leagues performed better than others. If you remember I stopped using the Dutch league a few weeks ago because I didn't think it was being profitable, turns out it was actually not the worst, and probably still worth having a look at in future. Serves me right for not doing this properly in the first place.
 
Anyway, the results for each league so far are -
 
BELGIUM = -£25.86
ENGLAND = £59.31
FRANCE = £28.81
GERMANY = -£12.90
HOLLAND = -£34.15
ITALY = £59.62
NORWAY = -£29.85
SCOTLAND = £22.98
SPAIN = -£111.23 (and no, that's NOT a typo!)
SWEDEN = £71.59
So, going forward, I'm only going to post up the selections on here from ENGLAND, FRANCE, ITALY, SCOTLAND and SWEDEN. I will continue to keep my own records of the others, and also of the leagues in DENMARK, AUSTRIA, ICELAND, SWITZERLAND and TURKEY to see how they perform. If any perform well over a period of time then I'll add them in, tho in looking at it it might be worth backing the U2.5 goals in spain lol. There's no midweek selections anyway due to european ties, so we'll see what the weekend throws up.

Cheers!
 
 

Results
West Ham v Norwich
half void/half won
Total stake: 2 points
Total return: 2.99
Profit/loss = +0.99 points

5 winners from 8 bets this season, profit +2.63 points with a yield of +32.81% and overall +21.71 with a yield of 27.13% from 80 bets.

Very unlucky, Mainz held out for a large portion of the match , and obviusly Newcastle were 2-0 up with 12 mins to go, but that is the nature of this system, you do get a number of late goals that scupper your positive result. I've learned to live with that lol Stil in a small profit thatks to Spurs :)
 
26.09.TOTTENHAMman city4.5£33.284 126.09.LEICESTERarsenal4.5-£10.002 526.09.NEWCASTLEchelsea6.4-£10.002 226.09.MAINZbayern6.4DR (14.5)-£10.000 3      TOTAL   £3.28 

Jolly nice midweek results   

BAYERN MUNICH v wolfsburg   5-1
ATH MADRID v getafe     2-0
xanthi V OLYMPIAKOS    1-3

PANATHINAIOS v levadiakos     2-0
ASTERAS v panionios ,  2-1
PAOK v aek ,   2-1

Top bombing Woz

[TABLE=border: 0, cellspacing: 0] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]11.09.[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]nor[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]stromsgodset[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]haugesund[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]1.6[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]£5.71[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]5 0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]12.09.[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]bel[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]waragem[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]gent[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]-£10.00[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]1 1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]12.09.[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]bel[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]mechelen[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]westerlo[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]1.85[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]£8.08[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]2 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]12.09.[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]eng[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]liverpool[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]man utd[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]£11.41[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]3 1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]12.09.[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]ger[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]hanover[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]dortmund[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]1.6[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]£5.71[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]2 4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]12.09.[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]ger[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]frankfurt[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]cologne[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]1.9[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]£8.56[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]6 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]12.09.[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]sco[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]dundee utd[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]kilmarnock[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]1.8[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]£7.61[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]1 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]13.09.[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]eng[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]sunderland[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]spurs[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]2.06[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]-£10.00[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]0 1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]13.09.[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]ger[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]hoffenheim[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]bremen[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]1.64[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]£6.09[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]1 3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]13.09.[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]ita[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]lazio[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]udinese[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]2.14[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]-£10.00[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]2 0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]13.09.[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]hol[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]den haag[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]heracles[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]1.7[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]-£10.00[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]0 1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]13.09.[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]hol[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]utrecht[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]vitesse[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]1.7[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]£6.66[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]2 1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]13.09.[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]nor[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]odd[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]bodo glimt[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]1.55[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]£5.23[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]2 1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]WEEKLY[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]PROFIT[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]£25.06[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]TOTAL[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]OVERALL[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]PROFIT[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center]£7.62[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] A great saturday followed be a not brilliant sunday still ends up in a good weeks profit, and back into the black overall by the astounding total of £7.62 lol. Still, moving in the right direction at least.

Boro 8 corners MK 6 Another winner

Boro 8 corners MK 6 Another winner