thecurlyone1

£126 profit yesterday. Thought it would have been higher but Gauff continued her cracking run by beating Rybarikova. 
Just over 2 points it works out as. 
 

England Women v USA Women:
10 points on a header to be scored at 4/1 with Hills
This is listed as a "Double #Your Odds" bet (so requested by a customer and the odds have been doubled), but no suggestion of it being limited in time or stakes. I'd have been surprised to see anyone offer this at as big as 2/1 in the first place so am very happy to take 4/1.

Three more picks, that's all for today's matches. Currently £56 profit from the matches that have finished so a single point of profit. Better than a loss but looks like no big dogs winning so far. A few still to come. 
 

Some nice wins today with Putintseva and Collins leading the way. Ended up with a profit of £380.95 so just over 7pts I think. 
All matches completed now after Sonega just lost to Granollers. 
 

Some early Wimbledon picks for today. 
 

Cheers mate, we will see how it goes!

Pliskova and Fritz today. 
Should be plenty tomorrow with Wimbledon on. 
 

Nice to see you back at it 

Small profit from the Querrey match who would've been matched anyway after he lost the second set. 
That's it for today's matches. 
 

Cheers, I think a couple had started. My priority it to get the bets on though, not supply them here so I will do my best but when there are many matches on by the time I have updated the spreadsheet some might be in play.

OK, here we go again. The last thread changed from the system to a trading diary and back again. 
I am starting fresh here. I will do my best to get picks up before matches start.
The method:
Using long term results I check to see if a player under/over performs compared to market sentiment. I then bet accordingly. 
Surface matters. 
I usually avoid backing below around 1.3 most of the time.
I also place bets slightly higher to be matched in play. Maybe 10-15 ticks higher for faves, 20 ticks for dogs. Most players drift that much during the matches to enable the bets to be matched. If I miss out on many winners due to not being matched then I will reduce this. 
Stakes are around 1.5% of the bank per bet. It's rough, I do it in my head, not to the penny. 
Two bets to start with today, maybe one or two more later this afternoon but unlikely. 
 

Just a Tyrer try from yesterday's 4 bets so an 18 point loss.
12 winners from 32 bets (37.5%)
544 points staked, 666.9 points returned
+122.9 points
ROI 22.59%

That's how the season finished. Overall record now looks like this (going back to the 2013/14 season)
213 bets showing a level stakes profit of 52.21 points with an ROI of 24.51%. This is only the third season I've recorded to advised stakes, which show 104 bets, 27.17 points profit and ROI of 29.85%.
The level stakes ROI has been (earliest to latest) 27.03%, 25.91%, 13.04%, 21.84%, 41.06% and 19.75%.
See you in May, all being well!

Just musings on the Champions League final this week, no selection, so Kev has eased his way into a deserved summer holiday!
Will wrap this thread up soon with an update of the long-term figures. No doubt be back again next season.

A better day today, tries from Lussick, Handley and Lomax (in the 1st half) make it 4 out of 6. 107 points risked and 219.5 returned for a 112.5 point profit. Overall record now looks like this:
6 winners from 15 bets (40%)
239 points staked, 327 points returned
+88 points
ROI 36.82%

Today: +8.13pts
Total (from 4th May): +38.71pts
 

Few more selections. That's probably it for the day. 
 

1 winner from 3 bets (33.33%)
45 points staked, 52.5 points returned
+7.25 points
ROI 16.11%

Thoughts on the cup final but no bet this week. I’ll wait till the season is fully complete before wrapping the thread up.

Well that the season finished
in total there were 140 selections with 76 winners to 1 pt level stakes there was a small loss of 3.45pts ( this would have been improved by finding best prices available I only used prices from Sportsbook and W Hill)
Breakdown by league
Premiership
28 selections 17 winners with a loss of 0.63pts
Championship
38 selections 21 winners with a loss of 0.95pts
League 1
39 selections 17 winners with a loss of 7.78pts
League 2
35 selections 21 winners with a profit of 5.91pts
If you had only backed selections that were evens or greater
32 selections 17 winners profit of 3.47pts
The work now begins on next season I will start a new thread for that
 

Final Selection for this season. Its been a long road but the Data collected will be analysed during the closed season With a view to getting something in place for next season. Hope you have enjoyed the journey and for those who created their own leagues perhaps you have learnt something
Any ideas or suggestions will be welcomed 
Will post P/L after results have been entered

Cheers for these Harry.  I’ve made a few bob along the year due to these posting 
 
can’t fault you fella.  Much appreciated 

No bet from Kev this week, just musings on what usually happens in 1st leg play off games and on the last day of the Premier League season. Probably odds on now that we've had his last bet of the season.

Three early bets today. 
These bets are placed before the start, unmatched, to hopefully be matched in play and then left to run. 
 

Kev favouring the split stakes approach again, as we enter the home straight for this season.
West Ham –0.5 Asian handicap corners v Southampton, 0.5pt at 2.0 with 365
Port Vale +4 Asian handicap corners v Bury, 0.5pt at 1.9 with 365