Smiles Tennis Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 OK, here we go again. The last thread changed from the system to a trading diary and back again. I am starting fresh here. I will do my best to get picks up before matches start. The method: Using long term results I check to see if a player under/over performs compared to market sentiment. I then bet accordingly. Surface matters. I usually avoid backing below around 1.3 most of the time. I also place bets slightly higher to be matched in play. Maybe 10-15 ticks higher for faves, 20 ticks for dogs. Most players drift that much during the matches to enable the bets to be matched. If I miss out on many winners due to not being matched then I will reduce this. Stakes are around 1.5% of the bank per bet. It's rough, I do it in my head, not to the penny. Two bets to start with today, maybe one or two more later this afternoon but unlikely. thecurlyone1 and TheEdge 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted June 28, 2019 Author Share Posted June 28, 2019 (edited) Pliskova didn't get matched so will change Querrey to current price which is 1.23. I fear missing out on too many easy winners trying to get the extra ticks. Edit: And now he's drifted to 1.3 almost straight away! lol Edited June 28, 2019 by Tennis Picks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted June 28, 2019 Author Share Posted June 28, 2019 Small profit from the Querrey match who would've been matched anyway after he lost the second set. That's it for today's matches. thecurlyone1 and TheEdge 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 Nice to see you back at it Smiles Tennis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted June 29, 2019 Author Share Posted June 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, thecurlyone1 said: Nice to see you back at it Cheers mate, we will see how it goes! thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted June 29, 2019 Author Share Posted June 29, 2019 Pliskova and Fritz today. Should be plenty tomorrow with Wimbledon on. thecurlyone1 and TheEdge 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted June 29, 2019 Author Share Posted June 29, 2019 2 from 2 today. Happy with that. TheEdge 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 1, 2019 Author Share Posted July 1, 2019 Some early Wimbledon picks for today. thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 1, 2019 Author Share Posted July 1, 2019 Few more picks for today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 1, 2019 Author Share Posted July 1, 2019 Few more from Pella down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 1, 2019 Author Share Posted July 1, 2019 Five more picks to finish off the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 1, 2019 Author Share Posted July 1, 2019 Some nice wins today with Putintseva and Collins leading the way. Ended up with a profit of £380.95 so just over 7pts I think. All matches completed now after Sonega just lost to Granollers. thecurlyone1 and TheEdge 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 2, 2019 Author Share Posted July 2, 2019 Some picks for the earlier matches. TheEdge 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 2, 2019 Author Share Posted July 2, 2019 More picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 2, 2019 Author Share Posted July 2, 2019 More picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 2, 2019 Author Share Posted July 2, 2019 Three more picks, that's all for today's matches. Currently £56 profit from the matches that have finished so a single point of profit. Better than a loss but looks like no big dogs winning so far. A few still to come. thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 3, 2019 Author Share Posted July 3, 2019 Loss of £212 yesterday, nearly all of the underdogs lost, it could've been a profitable day if a couple had turned it around. Bouchard came closest I think, being a game away, but it's Bouchard and she was never really going to win I don't think lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 3, 2019 Author Share Posted July 3, 2019 Picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 3, 2019 Author Share Posted July 3, 2019 All picks for today now complete. TheEdge 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 4, 2019 Author Share Posted July 4, 2019 £126 profit yesterday. Thought it would have been higher but Gauff continued her cracking run by beating Rybarikova. Just over 2 points it works out as. thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 4, 2019 Author Share Posted July 4, 2019 (edited) Four early picks. EDIT: after checking further matches there are no more picks for today. Edited July 4, 2019 by Tennis Picks thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 4, 2019 Author Share Posted July 4, 2019 £64 today, so slightly over a point profit from the four matches. thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 Going well fella ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 5, 2019 Author Share Posted July 5, 2019 7 hours ago, thecurlyone1 said: Going well fella ?? Ticking over at the moment yeah, thanks. I got excited when Niculescu was leading in the first set lol, would have been a great day if she would have won as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 5, 2019 Author Share Posted July 5, 2019 Today's picks. Plenty of underdogs so it could go very well, it could go horribly wrong! thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 5, 2019 Author Share Posted July 5, 2019 £80 profit from £58 stakes today. thecurlyone1 and TheEdge 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 6, 2019 Author Share Posted July 6, 2019 Today's picks are ready. Lots of heavy faves today. I don't really like it as if the couple of underdogs don't win then all it takes is a couple of the faves to lose and it's a losing day with it being hard to make up the losses. But, the algorithm is the algorithm. I can't argue with the rules. I personally would have been all over Halep to beat Azarenka at evens yesterday but the rules picked Azarenka so I went with her, and she lost. I'm sure there will be some where my opinion will be wrong and the system will throw up the winner instead so shouldn't really compliain. Over £500 profit recently so a nice buffer to help when the bad days come rolling along like they always do at some point. thecurlyone1, TheEdge and Torque 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 7, 2019 Author Share Posted July 7, 2019 £32.80 profit from £60 stakes yesterday. I am just glad for the profit after having so many low odds in there. When Fognini lost I thought it was going to be one of those days when loads of them lose but scraped out a profit in the end. thecurlyone1 and TheEdge 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 8, 2019 Author Share Posted July 8, 2019 Today's picks. Possibly more Challenger matches later, depends how the markets develop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 8, 2019 Author Share Posted July 8, 2019 £93 profit from £60 stakes. TheEdge 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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