Darran

First thing to say is that I am writing this on about 3 hours sleep and jet lagged so if there is any errors do let me know and I will correct them to make sure it all makes sense!
Asockastar - I said in my Cheltenham preview that I thought he would run with credit and that is exactly what he did to finish 8th. Patrick Mullins has been booked for the ride and I could see him finishing in the top 10 again without troubling the places.
Balnaslow - Great 'winner' of this race last year after finishing 2nd the year before. It seems like he will lose the race though from what we have been told which is a shame for connections. I'm sure he will have his fans given how he has run the last two years, but he doesn't look in good form this and he ran no sort of race at Cheltenham. With no Derek O'Connor on top either I am more than happy to oppose.
Bear's Affair - The horse who is set to become the 2018 winner once the BHA finally announce he has got the race. He won his seasonal return back in November, but then pulled up at Cottenham in December and was 2nd to his stablemate Optimised at Bangor last time out. He was beaten a neck that day and the winner has won 2 since including a Hunter Chase so the form isn't that bad. The problem is he is 13 now as much as I am sure he will run well and get round I just wonder if a top 4 placing might be a bit above him this year.
Burning Ambition - Was the big talking horse all last winter ahead of Cheltenham and he travelled really well into the race which had me worried given I didn't fancy him. However he didn't stay up the hill and ended up only 8th. There was talk that he wouldn't be hunter chasing this season, but he returned with connections saying Aintree rather than Cheltenham was the target which made sense given he didn't stay at Cheltenham. He made a winning return in January, but then disappointed when beaten by Sidetracked the following month.Those two re-opposed at Down Royal the day after Cheltenham when Burning Ambition held on by a diminishing margin from Sidetracked. The jockey said he was just easing him down and he had plenty left, but I must admit that wasn't how I saw it and I was slightly worried, having put him up as a bet, that he wasn't actually going to win. I thought he didn't have much left and that added to the fact he got beaten on his previous start is a worry for me. If this was last season I could understand why he heads the market, but this time around, especially given the UK horses seem to have the upper-hand based on Cheltenham in this sphere I don't get the price. A big plus though is that he has Derek on top.
Champagne West - Miles behind Seefood at Leicester and impossible to see how he can reverse that form despite his back class which includes winning the 2017 Thyestes.
Coastal Tiep - Pulled up at Cheltenham and hard to see much of an improvement here.
Crazy Jack - Was well handicapped when winning the handicap Hunter Chase at Stratford last season, but that is is only Hunter Chase win and hasn't shown much in 3 runs this season.
Dineur - Great winner of this race two years ago, but wasn't see again until last month and he was miles behind Road To Rome. Unseated rider early on at Fakenham on Gold Cup day and it is hard to know what sort of ability he still has at the age of 13, but hard to want to back him to get back his crown.
Galley Exhibition - Wasn't a bad run at Kingston Blount last time when 2nd but was last of 12 in this last year and hard to see him improving on that.
Greensalt - A surprise 3rd in this last year and then unseated at Hexham when badly hampered 2 from home by the leader who fell. Just seen the once so far this season when he was a 3L 2nd to Path To Freedom at Duncombe Park. That was a fair run and this clearly has been the target, but hard to see him equalling last year's efforts let alone go 2 places better.
Just Cause - Beaten at odds on by Asockastar at Leicester and I don't think he will reverse that form let alone trouble the judge here. Pulled up at Cheltenham.
Kruzhlinin - 7 out of 7 in Irish points this season, but not sure that means he has achieved a great deal and was 3rd at Down Royal in his only Hunter Chase behind Stand Up And Fight. That leaves him with work to do here. I also have a big concern about the trip as it looks on the short side and in his previous runs round here he has never really convinced either. Not for me.
Mr Mercurial - Been a really good pointer/hunter chaser over the years and ran well enough when 8th in his only run in this back in 2017. Had a superb season last time around and in that form I would be tempted to back him for this. The problem is he left Shelia Crow last season and has gone to Will Ramsey who trains him and rides him as well. He isn't a great jockey and I don't think he has given him great rides either start this season. If you give him a chance to dog it then he will and he was in front for way too long at Kelso when his head went straight up in the air after the last allowing Shantou Flyer to go past him. Granted that form is looking pretty decent now and Sir Jack Yeats was in behind them so it was still a good run. He was then 3rd in the Grand Military Gold Cup when he didn't stay although his jockey did get carried away which didn't help. This test will suit more but who knows what sort of ride he is going to get.
Mr Mix - Was a well beaten 2nd behind Hazel Hill at Warwick and although the winner is top notch I still think the form is suspect in behind. His pointing form is nowhere near good enough to get competitive in this. He was seen to have blood coming from his nose after winning at Charing which would explain why he was an unimpressive winner, but that also brings its own concerns as to if he will do it again. I think he is really short in the betting for what he has done this season.
Never Complain - Well beaten in 2 previous attempts and no reason why he should do any better here.
Numbercruncher - Too far for him and he will be outclassed anyway.
Pass The Hat - Got this horse very wrong in both his Hunter Chase wins as I didn't fancy him at either Southwell or Carlisle. It could be argued Road To Riches needed it at Carlisle, but I thought he ran out a decent winner and it is hard to see why he should be such a big price compared to that horse for this. I can see him running well, but he ought not to be good enough to win this.
Road To Riches - Had a very easy task to win last time after that 2nd to Pass The Hat back at Carlisle. Was 6th in last year's National and was 3rd to Coneygree in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2015, but as mentioned above I wouldn't be certain he can overturn that form with Pass The Hat let alone win this and he isn't for me.
Road To Rome - I've been saying for ages now that this is the race for him. He ran a stormer at Chetlenham finishing 4th after just not staying after setting a blistering gallop as he usually does. His jockey has a superb record round here and has won this race 3 times. The two minor concerns are his jumping, although he has never looked like falling this season, and a bigger worry would be that he has 8 races already since the season started in November. After a tough race at Cheltenham as well it might well catch up with him, but it hasn't so far and I think that is the only thing that is going to stop him from winning this.
Seefood - Wasn't exactly the strongest renewal of the Leicestershire Hunter Chase that he won on his only start so far for new connections, but he was an impressive winner and he was well backed ahead of the race as well so connections were clearly expecting a big run. His last good run under rules was in the Grand Sefton in December 2016 when he was a good 2nd so he ha crucial course form as well. His jockey isn't the most experienced in the field, but she gave him a good ride at Leicester and I think he has a fair shout of hitting the frame.
Shantou Magic - No chance
Shimla Dawn - Has to front run as he did when winning well at Musselburgh but no way will he be pacey enough to keep up with Road To Rome here.
Sir Jack Yeats - I think he has a huge chance. Last season was all about qualifying him for Cheltenham which ended up being a bit rushed given he needed 3 runs to get qualification. He then run well enough at Cheltenham but didn't really see out the trip. Aintree was very much an after thought and it told late on when he ended up finishing 9th although I do want to see him handle the Canal Turn better than he did that day. This season he looked like he might win at Kelso before the lack of a run told late on and his trainer admitted after he won at Fakenham that he had left him more under-cooked than he thought he had ahead of the Kelso run. He had little to beat at Fakenham, but he did it with ease and this has been his main target instead of an after thought this time around
Starkie - Not seen since surprisingly beating one of the best pointers in recent years Broken Eagle at Hackwood last season and on that form would be of serious interest in a normal Hunter Chase, but hard to see him being good enough for this.
Top Wood - A superb training performance to get him to finish 3rd at Cheltenham on his seasonal debut after finishing 2nd in the race last year. Has never been here before, but no reason why he shouldn't handle it. The slight worry would be the trip as he probably needs slightly further, but this is likely to be a good test and given he should sit near or on the pace that should suit as well. Concern would be if he bounced after Cheltenham, but on the other side of the coin if he came on for the run then he is going to be right there at the finish.
Ucello Conti - As I said in my review of the Cheltenham Foxhunter I thought Jamie Codd gave him a terrible ride as he sat way too far off the pace and they were never going to get involved from that far back given the quality of horse up front. Was 6th in the 2016 Grand National, but unseated in the last 2 years although was a close 4th in the Becher Chase in 2016. I didn't fancy him for Cheltenham though as I thought his form this season wasn't great and this trip is surely going to be on the sharp side for him. I can see him being tapped for toe from an early stage and struggle to get into the race from there.
Wonderful Charm - Slightly surprised he is even running given Sam is on Road To Rome. Was always well behind in this last year and likely to be the same again especially with the cut in the ground.
Summary - As at Cheltenham I am more than happy to oppose the Irish here and am going to stick with the home team. As long as Road To Rome isn't feeling a long season then he is the one they all have to beat and he is the main selection. Sir Jack Yeats has been specifically aimed at this race this year and until running wide at the Canal Turn was running a good race. I think he has a huge chance and is over-priced. Top Wood is the 3rd choice as hard to see him out of contention as long as he doesn't bounce. A small e/w play on Seefood as well who is proven round here and is another to have clearly targeted this race.
Road To Rome 2pts @ 4/1 with Bet365 and most others
Sir Jack Yeats 1pt e/w @ 22/1 with Bet365 (4 places is shorter with 5 places on offer)
Top Wood 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365 (4 places) and Boylesports (5 places)
Seefood 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 with Betway (4 places) 

First thing to say is that I am writing this on about 3 hours sleep and jet lagged so if there is any errors do let me know and I will correct them to make sure it all makes sense!
Asockastar - I said in my Cheltenham preview that I thought he would run with credit and that is exactly what he did to finish 8th. Patrick Mullins has been booked for the ride and I could see him finishing in the top 10 again without troubling the places.
Balnaslow - Great 'winner' of this race last year after finishing 2nd the year before. It seems like he will lose the race though from what we have been told which is a shame for connections. I'm sure he will have his fans given how he has run the last two years, but he doesn't look in good form this and he ran no sort of race at Cheltenham. With no Derek O'Connor on top either I am more than happy to oppose.
Bear's Affair - The horse who is set to become the 2018 winner once the BHA finally announce he has got the race. He won his seasonal return back in November, but then pulled up at Cottenham in December and was 2nd to his stablemate Optimised at Bangor last time out. He was beaten a neck that day and the winner has won 2 since including a Hunter Chase so the form isn't that bad. The problem is he is 13 now as much as I am sure he will run well and get round I just wonder if a top 4 placing might be a bit above him this year.
Burning Ambition - Was the big talking horse all last winter ahead of Cheltenham and he travelled really well into the race which had me worried given I didn't fancy him. However he didn't stay up the hill and ended up only 8th. There was talk that he wouldn't be hunter chasing this season, but he returned with connections saying Aintree rather than Cheltenham was the target which made sense given he didn't stay at Cheltenham. He made a winning return in January, but then disappointed when beaten by Sidetracked the following month.Those two re-opposed at Down Royal the day after Cheltenham when Burning Ambition held on by a diminishing margin from Sidetracked. The jockey said he was just easing him down and he had plenty left, but I must admit that wasn't how I saw it and I was slightly worried, having put him up as a bet, that he wasn't actually going to win. I thought he didn't have much left and that added to the fact he got beaten on his previous start is a worry for me. If this was last season I could understand why he heads the market, but this time around, especially given the UK horses seem to have the upper-hand based on Cheltenham in this sphere I don't get the price. A big plus though is that he has Derek on top.
Champagne West - Miles behind Seefood at Leicester and impossible to see how he can reverse that form despite his back class which includes winning the 2017 Thyestes.
Coastal Tiep - Pulled up at Cheltenham and hard to see much of an improvement here.
Crazy Jack - Was well handicapped when winning the handicap Hunter Chase at Stratford last season, but that is is only Hunter Chase win and hasn't shown much in 3 runs this season.
Dineur - Great winner of this race two years ago, but wasn't see again until last month and he was miles behind Road To Rome. Unseated rider early on at Fakenham on Gold Cup day and it is hard to know what sort of ability he still has at the age of 13, but hard to want to back him to get back his crown.
Galley Exhibition - Wasn't a bad run at Kingston Blount last time when 2nd but was last of 12 in this last year and hard to see him improving on that.
Greensalt - A surprise 3rd in this last year and then unseated at Hexham when badly hampered 2 from home by the leader who fell. Just seen the once so far this season when he was a 3L 2nd to Path To Freedom at Duncombe Park. That was a fair run and this clearly has been the target, but hard to see him equalling last year's efforts let alone go 2 places better.
Just Cause - Beaten at odds on by Asockastar at Leicester and I don't think he will reverse that form let alone trouble the judge here. Pulled up at Cheltenham.
Kruzhlinin - 7 out of 7 in Irish points this season, but not sure that means he has achieved a great deal and was 3rd at Down Royal in his only Hunter Chase behind Stand Up And Fight. That leaves him with work to do here. I also have a big concern about the trip as it looks on the short side and in his previous runs round here he has never really convinced either. Not for me.
Mr Mercurial - Been a really good pointer/hunter chaser over the years and ran well enough when 8th in his only run in this back in 2017. Had a superb season last time around and in that form I would be tempted to back him for this. The problem is he left Shelia Crow last season and has gone to Will Ramsey who trains him and rides him as well. He isn't a great jockey and I don't think he has given him great rides either start this season. If you give him a chance to dog it then he will and he was in front for way too long at Kelso when his head went straight up in the air after the last allowing Shantou Flyer to go past him. Granted that form is looking pretty decent now and Sir Jack Yeats was in behind them so it was still a good run. He was then 3rd in the Grand Military Gold Cup when he didn't stay although his jockey did get carried away which didn't help. This test will suit more but who knows what sort of ride he is going to get.
Mr Mix - Was a well beaten 2nd behind Hazel Hill at Warwick and although the winner is top notch I still think the form is suspect in behind. His pointing form is nowhere near good enough to get competitive in this. He was seen to have blood coming from his nose after winning at Charing which would explain why he was an unimpressive winner, but that also brings its own concerns as to if he will do it again. I think he is really short in the betting for what he has done this season.
Never Complain - Well beaten in 2 previous attempts and no reason why he should do any better here.
Numbercruncher - Too far for him and he will be outclassed anyway.
Pass The Hat - Got this horse very wrong in both his Hunter Chase wins as I didn't fancy him at either Southwell or Carlisle. It could be argued Road To Riches needed it at Carlisle, but I thought he ran out a decent winner and it is hard to see why he should be such a big price compared to that horse for this. I can see him running well, but he ought not to be good enough to win this.
Road To Riches - Had a very easy task to win last time after that 2nd to Pass The Hat back at Carlisle. Was 6th in last year's National and was 3rd to Coneygree in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2015, but as mentioned above I wouldn't be certain he can overturn that form with Pass The Hat let alone win this and he isn't for me.
Road To Rome - I've been saying for ages now that this is the race for him. He ran a stormer at Chetlenham finishing 4th after just not staying after setting a blistering gallop as he usually does. His jockey has a superb record round here and has won this race 3 times. The two minor concerns are his jumping, although he has never looked like falling this season, and a bigger worry would be that he has 8 races already since the season started in November. After a tough race at Cheltenham as well it might well catch up with him, but it hasn't so far and I think that is the only thing that is going to stop him from winning this.
Seefood - Wasn't exactly the strongest renewal of the Leicestershire Hunter Chase that he won on his only start so far for new connections, but he was an impressive winner and he was well backed ahead of the race as well so connections were clearly expecting a big run. His last good run under rules was in the Grand Sefton in December 2016 when he was a good 2nd so he ha crucial course form as well. His jockey isn't the most experienced in the field, but she gave him a good ride at Leicester and I think he has a fair shout of hitting the frame.
Shantou Magic - No chance
Shimla Dawn - Has to front run as he did when winning well at Musselburgh but no way will he be pacey enough to keep up with Road To Rome here.
Sir Jack Yeats - I think he has a huge chance. Last season was all about qualifying him for Cheltenham which ended up being a bit rushed given he needed 3 runs to get qualification. He then run well enough at Cheltenham but didn't really see out the trip. Aintree was very much an after thought and it told late on when he ended up finishing 9th although I do want to see him handle the Canal Turn better than he did that day. This season he looked like he might win at Kelso before the lack of a run told late on and his trainer admitted after he won at Fakenham that he had left him more under-cooked than he thought he had ahead of the Kelso run. He had little to beat at Fakenham, but he did it with ease and this has been his main target instead of an after thought this time around
Starkie - Not seen since surprisingly beating one of the best pointers in recent years Broken Eagle at Hackwood last season and on that form would be of serious interest in a normal Hunter Chase, but hard to see him being good enough for this.
Top Wood - A superb training performance to get him to finish 3rd at Cheltenham on his seasonal debut after finishing 2nd in the race last year. Has never been here before, but no reason why he shouldn't handle it. The slight worry would be the trip as he probably needs slightly further, but this is likely to be a good test and given he should sit near or on the pace that should suit as well. Concern would be if he bounced after Cheltenham, but on the other side of the coin if he came on for the run then he is going to be right there at the finish.
Ucello Conti - As I said in my review of the Cheltenham Foxhunter I thought Jamie Codd gave him a terrible ride as he sat way too far off the pace and they were never going to get involved from that far back given the quality of horse up front. Was 6th in the 2016 Grand National, but unseated in the last 2 years although was a close 4th in the Becher Chase in 2016. I didn't fancy him for Cheltenham though as I thought his form this season wasn't great and this trip is surely going to be on the sharp side for him. I can see him being tapped for toe from an early stage and struggle to get into the race from there.
Wonderful Charm - Slightly surprised he is even running given Sam is on Road To Rome. Was always well behind in this last year and likely to be the same again especially with the cut in the ground.
Summary - As at Cheltenham I am more than happy to oppose the Irish here and am going to stick with the home team. As long as Road To Rome isn't feeling a long season then he is the one they all have to beat and he is the main selection. Sir Jack Yeats has been specifically aimed at this race this year and until running wide at the Canal Turn was running a good race. I think he has a huge chance and is over-priced. Top Wood is the 3rd choice as hard to see him out of contention as long as he doesn't bounce. A small e/w play on Seefood as well who is proven round here and is another to have clearly targeted this race.
Road To Rome 2pts @ 4/1 with Bet365 and most others
Sir Jack Yeats 1pt e/w @ 22/1 with Bet365 (4 places is shorter with 5 places on offer)
Top Wood 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365 (4 places) and Boylesports (5 places)
Seefood 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 with Betway (4 places) 

Thanks everyone amazing that the run continues 

Another small profit to keep things ticking over. Fair play to Natalie for sitting on Virak who made a really bad mistake just as the race was starting to get serious. She did well to get the horse back on an even keel and the horse stayed on strongly to overhaul Queen Olivia late on. She bounced back to her best here and I guess in hindsight Lilly might have not gone for home as soon as she did. In Arrears was a massive gamble before the race which was a bit of a strange one given she would have had to find a lot of improvement to have beaten Virak and it clearly wasn't e/w money. Her chance was hindered by the fact Silvergrove tried to take her on for the running and she was doing too much in the early stages. Even so I am not sure she would have finished any higher up and she will need her sights lowered next time. Silvergrove looks to have completely gone and needs to go back pointing to try and get his confidence back.
Only 4 runners at Ludlow and the betting is quite tight. Delegate is just favourite at the time of writing and he was meant to run here last week but the stewards had to take him out. It is certainly an easier race and he has a better chance of winning. He was well fancied on his pointing debut in a race Optimised won and Bears Affair was 2nd so it was a hot little contest despite there being just 4 runners. He pulled up though and the jockey could give no reason as to why he was so disappointing. He won a Musselburgh Novice Chase last year, but I suspect that he was flattered by that and he was a beaten favourite next time before being outclassed in a Grade 1 at Aintree. He is the one unknown in the race really because if you forgive the Bangor effort then he has a strong chance, but also there is a big question mark over his current well being. 
Karinga Dancer has only run in points since Laura Thomas took over his training in 2016 and he has won 5 out of 13 which is obviously decent. Laura has ridden him in points and the jockey change will be a plus. He won on his seasonal debut over this trip at Cottenham although the race wasn't a strong one and he has been beaten both times since. At 13 I get the feeling one of the younger horses in the race will beat him. 
Sam Cavallaro has been a great servant for Heidi Brookshaw although he hasn't won for nearly 3 years now despite some solid placings in that time. He was a distant 2nd behind Arthur's Secret a couple of weeks ago and he achieved little there in my view. He should build on that, but I find it hard to see him winning.
That leaves us with Hidden Charmer who you wouldn't fancy at all if it was coming off the back of its rules form from last year when he was last seen going off a 66/1 shot in Stratford Class 4 Handicap in November. New connections have clearly improved him though and he was a massive gamble when he made his pointing debut at Brampton Bryan 8 days ago. He made the running and was just beaten by Knight Bachelor who was the favourite for the in for Philip Rowley team and was rated 138 under rules when he last race. That form gives him an excellent chance of winning this as it is the best recent form in the race. Ignore the fact he opened up at 8/1 as it lasted a minute and the price collapsed pretty quickly after that. The only real danger is Delegate if he can bounce back, but Hidden Charmer is the most likely winner for me and I think he will end up going off favourite and certainly less than the 9/4 he currently is.
Hidden Charmer 2.5pts @ 9/4 with Betfred, Betfair and pretty much all bookies

Another small profit to keep things ticking over. Fair play to Natalie for sitting on Virak who made a really bad mistake just as the race was starting to get serious. She did well to get the horse back on an even keel and the horse stayed on strongly to overhaul Queen Olivia late on. She bounced back to her best here and I guess in hindsight Lilly might have not gone for home as soon as she did. In Arrears was a massive gamble before the race which was a bit of a strange one given she would have had to find a lot of improvement to have beaten Virak and it clearly wasn't e/w money. Her chance was hindered by the fact Silvergrove tried to take her on for the running and she was doing too much in the early stages. Even so I am not sure she would have finished any higher up and she will need her sights lowered next time. Silvergrove looks to have completely gone and needs to go back pointing to try and get his confidence back.
Only 4 runners at Ludlow and the betting is quite tight. Delegate is just favourite at the time of writing and he was meant to run here last week but the stewards had to take him out. It is certainly an easier race and he has a better chance of winning. He was well fancied on his pointing debut in a race Optimised won and Bears Affair was 2nd so it was a hot little contest despite there being just 4 runners. He pulled up though and the jockey could give no reason as to why he was so disappointing. He won a Musselburgh Novice Chase last year, but I suspect that he was flattered by that and he was a beaten favourite next time before being outclassed in a Grade 1 at Aintree. He is the one unknown in the race really because if you forgive the Bangor effort then he has a strong chance, but also there is a big question mark over his current well being. 
Karinga Dancer has only run in points since Laura Thomas took over his training in 2016 and he has won 5 out of 13 which is obviously decent. Laura has ridden him in points and the jockey change will be a plus. He won on his seasonal debut over this trip at Cottenham although the race wasn't a strong one and he has been beaten both times since. At 13 I get the feeling one of the younger horses in the race will beat him. 
Sam Cavallaro has been a great servant for Heidi Brookshaw although he hasn't won for nearly 3 years now despite some solid placings in that time. He was a distant 2nd behind Arthur's Secret a couple of weeks ago and he achieved little there in my view. He should build on that, but I find it hard to see him winning.
That leaves us with Hidden Charmer who you wouldn't fancy at all if it was coming off the back of its rules form from last year when he was last seen going off a 66/1 shot in Stratford Class 4 Handicap in November. New connections have clearly improved him though and he was a massive gamble when he made his pointing debut at Brampton Bryan 8 days ago. He made the running and was just beaten by Knight Bachelor who was the favourite for the in for Philip Rowley team and was rated 138 under rules when he last race. That form gives him an excellent chance of winning this as it is the best recent form in the race. Ignore the fact he opened up at 8/1 as it lasted a minute and the price collapsed pretty quickly after that. The only real danger is Delegate if he can bounce back, but Hidden Charmer is the most likely winner for me and I think he will end up going off favourite and certainly less than the 9/4 he currently is.
Hidden Charmer 2.5pts @ 9/4 with Betfred, Betfair and pretty much all bookies

Another small profit to keep things ticking over. Fair play to Natalie for sitting on Virak who made a really bad mistake just as the race was starting to get serious. She did well to get the horse back on an even keel and the horse stayed on strongly to overhaul Queen Olivia late on. She bounced back to her best here and I guess in hindsight Lilly might have not gone for home as soon as she did. In Arrears was a massive gamble before the race which was a bit of a strange one given she would have had to find a lot of improvement to have beaten Virak and it clearly wasn't e/w money. Her chance was hindered by the fact Silvergrove tried to take her on for the running and she was doing too much in the early stages. Even so I am not sure she would have finished any higher up and she will need her sights lowered next time. Silvergrove looks to have completely gone and needs to go back pointing to try and get his confidence back.
Only 4 runners at Ludlow and the betting is quite tight. Delegate is just favourite at the time of writing and he was meant to run here last week but the stewards had to take him out. It is certainly an easier race and he has a better chance of winning. He was well fancied on his pointing debut in a race Optimised won and Bears Affair was 2nd so it was a hot little contest despite there being just 4 runners. He pulled up though and the jockey could give no reason as to why he was so disappointing. He won a Musselburgh Novice Chase last year, but I suspect that he was flattered by that and he was a beaten favourite next time before being outclassed in a Grade 1 at Aintree. He is the one unknown in the race really because if you forgive the Bangor effort then he has a strong chance, but also there is a big question mark over his current well being. 
Karinga Dancer has only run in points since Laura Thomas took over his training in 2016 and he has won 5 out of 13 which is obviously decent. Laura has ridden him in points and the jockey change will be a plus. He won on his seasonal debut over this trip at Cottenham although the race wasn't a strong one and he has been beaten both times since. At 13 I get the feeling one of the younger horses in the race will beat him. 
Sam Cavallaro has been a great servant for Heidi Brookshaw although he hasn't won for nearly 3 years now despite some solid placings in that time. He was a distant 2nd behind Arthur's Secret a couple of weeks ago and he achieved little there in my view. He should build on that, but I find it hard to see him winning.
That leaves us with Hidden Charmer who you wouldn't fancy at all if it was coming off the back of its rules form from last year when he was last seen going off a 66/1 shot in Stratford Class 4 Handicap in November. New connections have clearly improved him though and he was a massive gamble when he made his pointing debut at Brampton Bryan 8 days ago. He made the running and was just beaten by Knight Bachelor who was the favourite for the in for Philip Rowley team and was rated 138 under rules when he last race. That form gives him an excellent chance of winning this as it is the best recent form in the race. Ignore the fact he opened up at 8/1 as it lasted a minute and the price collapsed pretty quickly after that. The only real danger is Delegate if he can bounce back, but Hidden Charmer is the most likely winner for me and I think he will end up going off favourite and certainly less than the 9/4 he currently is.
Hidden Charmer 2.5pts @ 9/4 with Betfred, Betfair and pretty much all bookies

Another small profit to keep things ticking over. Fair play to Natalie for sitting on Virak who made a really bad mistake just as the race was starting to get serious. She did well to get the horse back on an even keel and the horse stayed on strongly to overhaul Queen Olivia late on. She bounced back to her best here and I guess in hindsight Lilly might have not gone for home as soon as she did. In Arrears was a massive gamble before the race which was a bit of a strange one given she would have had to find a lot of improvement to have beaten Virak and it clearly wasn't e/w money. Her chance was hindered by the fact Silvergrove tried to take her on for the running and she was doing too much in the early stages. Even so I am not sure she would have finished any higher up and she will need her sights lowered next time. Silvergrove looks to have completely gone and needs to go back pointing to try and get his confidence back.
Only 4 runners at Ludlow and the betting is quite tight. Delegate is just favourite at the time of writing and he was meant to run here last week but the stewards had to take him out. It is certainly an easier race and he has a better chance of winning. He was well fancied on his pointing debut in a race Optimised won and Bears Affair was 2nd so it was a hot little contest despite there being just 4 runners. He pulled up though and the jockey could give no reason as to why he was so disappointing. He won a Musselburgh Novice Chase last year, but I suspect that he was flattered by that and he was a beaten favourite next time before being outclassed in a Grade 1 at Aintree. He is the one unknown in the race really because if you forgive the Bangor effort then he has a strong chance, but also there is a big question mark over his current well being. 
Karinga Dancer has only run in points since Laura Thomas took over his training in 2016 and he has won 5 out of 13 which is obviously decent. Laura has ridden him in points and the jockey change will be a plus. He won on his seasonal debut over this trip at Cottenham although the race wasn't a strong one and he has been beaten both times since. At 13 I get the feeling one of the younger horses in the race will beat him. 
Sam Cavallaro has been a great servant for Heidi Brookshaw although he hasn't won for nearly 3 years now despite some solid placings in that time. He was a distant 2nd behind Arthur's Secret a couple of weeks ago and he achieved little there in my view. He should build on that, but I find it hard to see him winning.
That leaves us with Hidden Charmer who you wouldn't fancy at all if it was coming off the back of its rules form from last year when he was last seen going off a 66/1 shot in Stratford Class 4 Handicap in November. New connections have clearly improved him though and he was a massive gamble when he made his pointing debut at Brampton Bryan 8 days ago. He made the running and was just beaten by Knight Bachelor who was the favourite for the in for Philip Rowley team and was rated 138 under rules when he last race. That form gives him an excellent chance of winning this as it is the best recent form in the race. Ignore the fact he opened up at 8/1 as it lasted a minute and the price collapsed pretty quickly after that. The only real danger is Delegate if he can bounce back, but Hidden Charmer is the most likely winner for me and I think he will end up going off favourite and certainly less than the 9/4 he currently is.
Hidden Charmer 2.5pts @ 9/4 with Betfred, Betfair and pretty much all bookies

Another small profit to keep things ticking over. Fair play to Natalie for sitting on Virak who made a really bad mistake just as the race was starting to get serious. She did well to get the horse back on an even keel and the horse stayed on strongly to overhaul Queen Olivia late on. She bounced back to her best here and I guess in hindsight Lilly might have not gone for home as soon as she did. In Arrears was a massive gamble before the race which was a bit of a strange one given she would have had to find a lot of improvement to have beaten Virak and it clearly wasn't e/w money. Her chance was hindered by the fact Silvergrove tried to take her on for the running and she was doing too much in the early stages. Even so I am not sure she would have finished any higher up and she will need her sights lowered next time. Silvergrove looks to have completely gone and needs to go back pointing to try and get his confidence back.
Only 4 runners at Ludlow and the betting is quite tight. Delegate is just favourite at the time of writing and he was meant to run here last week but the stewards had to take him out. It is certainly an easier race and he has a better chance of winning. He was well fancied on his pointing debut in a race Optimised won and Bears Affair was 2nd so it was a hot little contest despite there being just 4 runners. He pulled up though and the jockey could give no reason as to why he was so disappointing. He won a Musselburgh Novice Chase last year, but I suspect that he was flattered by that and he was a beaten favourite next time before being outclassed in a Grade 1 at Aintree. He is the one unknown in the race really because if you forgive the Bangor effort then he has a strong chance, but also there is a big question mark over his current well being. 
Karinga Dancer has only run in points since Laura Thomas took over his training in 2016 and he has won 5 out of 13 which is obviously decent. Laura has ridden him in points and the jockey change will be a plus. He won on his seasonal debut over this trip at Cottenham although the race wasn't a strong one and he has been beaten both times since. At 13 I get the feeling one of the younger horses in the race will beat him. 
Sam Cavallaro has been a great servant for Heidi Brookshaw although he hasn't won for nearly 3 years now despite some solid placings in that time. He was a distant 2nd behind Arthur's Secret a couple of weeks ago and he achieved little there in my view. He should build on that, but I find it hard to see him winning.
That leaves us with Hidden Charmer who you wouldn't fancy at all if it was coming off the back of its rules form from last year when he was last seen going off a 66/1 shot in Stratford Class 4 Handicap in November. New connections have clearly improved him though and he was a massive gamble when he made his pointing debut at Brampton Bryan 8 days ago. He made the running and was just beaten by Knight Bachelor who was the favourite for the in for Philip Rowley team and was rated 138 under rules when he last race. That form gives him an excellent chance of winning this as it is the best recent form in the race. Ignore the fact he opened up at 8/1 as it lasted a minute and the price collapsed pretty quickly after that. The only real danger is Delegate if he can bounce back, but Hidden Charmer is the most likely winner for me and I think he will end up going off favourite and certainly less than the 9/4 he currently is.
Hidden Charmer 2.5pts @ 9/4 with Betfred, Betfair and pretty much all bookies

Another small profit to keep things ticking over. Fair play to Natalie for sitting on Virak who made a really bad mistake just as the race was starting to get serious. She did well to get the horse back on an even keel and the horse stayed on strongly to overhaul Queen Olivia late on. She bounced back to her best here and I guess in hindsight Lilly might have not gone for home as soon as she did. In Arrears was a massive gamble before the race which was a bit of a strange one given she would have had to find a lot of improvement to have beaten Virak and it clearly wasn't e/w money. Her chance was hindered by the fact Silvergrove tried to take her on for the running and she was doing too much in the early stages. Even so I am not sure she would have finished any higher up and she will need her sights lowered next time. Silvergrove looks to have completely gone and needs to go back pointing to try and get his confidence back.
Only 4 runners at Ludlow and the betting is quite tight. Delegate is just favourite at the time of writing and he was meant to run here last week but the stewards had to take him out. It is certainly an easier race and he has a better chance of winning. He was well fancied on his pointing debut in a race Optimised won and Bears Affair was 2nd so it was a hot little contest despite there being just 4 runners. He pulled up though and the jockey could give no reason as to why he was so disappointing. He won a Musselburgh Novice Chase last year, but I suspect that he was flattered by that and he was a beaten favourite next time before being outclassed in a Grade 1 at Aintree. He is the one unknown in the race really because if you forgive the Bangor effort then he has a strong chance, but also there is a big question mark over his current well being. 
Karinga Dancer has only run in points since Laura Thomas took over his training in 2016 and he has won 5 out of 13 which is obviously decent. Laura has ridden him in points and the jockey change will be a plus. He won on his seasonal debut over this trip at Cottenham although the race wasn't a strong one and he has been beaten both times since. At 13 I get the feeling one of the younger horses in the race will beat him. 
Sam Cavallaro has been a great servant for Heidi Brookshaw although he hasn't won for nearly 3 years now despite some solid placings in that time. He was a distant 2nd behind Arthur's Secret a couple of weeks ago and he achieved little there in my view. He should build on that, but I find it hard to see him winning.
That leaves us with Hidden Charmer who you wouldn't fancy at all if it was coming off the back of its rules form from last year when he was last seen going off a 66/1 shot in Stratford Class 4 Handicap in November. New connections have clearly improved him though and he was a massive gamble when he made his pointing debut at Brampton Bryan 8 days ago. He made the running and was just beaten by Knight Bachelor who was the favourite for the in for Philip Rowley team and was rated 138 under rules when he last race. That form gives him an excellent chance of winning this as it is the best recent form in the race. Ignore the fact he opened up at 8/1 as it lasted a minute and the price collapsed pretty quickly after that. The only real danger is Delegate if he can bounce back, but Hidden Charmer is the most likely winner for me and I think he will end up going off favourite and certainly less than the 9/4 he currently is.
Hidden Charmer 2.5pts @ 9/4 with Betfred, Betfair and pretty much all bookies

Sometimes not having a bet can be just as good as winning bet and not backing Always On The Run at odds on turned out to be a good move. It is rare to get a truly run race when there are only 3 runners, but he set a good clip and Ravished ran out a good winner in the end. It was some improvement from his recent form to win his point prior to Wetherby and this was a step up again. It will be interesting to see where they go with him next, but he should add to this win at the right level.
Onto Ascot's race today and they have actually increased the trip from 2m5f to 3m. Virak is the odds on favourite and he should win this. He won two Hunter Chases last year at Ludlow and then the Walrus at Haydock. He then ran down the field at Cheltenham before disappointing at Newton Abbot although he isn't the first horse to now show his form after running in the Foxhunter. He has gone to Rose Loxton this season and he has easily won 3 points. I saw the first of them at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and he had Arthur's Secret back in 3rd. Now Arthur's has improved since then and needed the run that day, but it is still good form. He might prefer a little bit of cut in the ground, but the point wins have been on good ground this term so it shouldn't be an issue and his form is a cut above the rest for me.
In Arrears didn't beat much in the end at Exeter, but she was impressive in doing so. She is clearly progressing nicely and I under estimated her ahead of the Exeter race. She looks the most likely to follow the favourite home.
If Queen Olivia could repeat the close 2nd to Road To Rome on her seasonal debut then she comes right into this, but the issue is she has gone backwards now. She was a well beaten 3rd behind Arthur's Secret although that wasn't a bad run, but she was then pulled up at Parham. I would imagine there was an issue that day because it was too bad to be true and if she bounces back then she isn't out of this.
Silvergrove was well beaten on his first start for 22 months at Fakenham and there is every chance he will come on for that, but I didn't see enough in that run for me to want to think he has a chance in this. Flaming Charmer was sold for 18k in December and did win at Chepstow off 121 the month before, but he was poor over 3m at Wincanton and he has never won over this far. Every chance he will need this as well against fit rivals.
Virak should win, but the price isn't exactly exciting so I will take a couple of forecasts. I don't fancy Silvergrove or Flying Charmer so I can rule them out. I was initially going to leave Queen Olivia out as she looks to be going backwards after a good run, but even the Ludlow 3rd could well be good enough to finish 2nd and the Parham run was too bad to be true so I will save on her. In Arrears though looks progressive even if the Exeter race wasn't strong and she is most likely to finish 2nd.
Virak to beat In Arrears 1pt fc
Virak to beat Queen Olivia 0.5pts fc

Sometimes not having a bet can be just as good as winning bet and not backing Always On The Run at odds on turned out to be a good move. It is rare to get a truly run race when there are only 3 runners, but he set a good clip and Ravished ran out a good winner in the end. It was some improvement from his recent form to win his point prior to Wetherby and this was a step up again. It will be interesting to see where they go with him next, but he should add to this win at the right level.
Onto Ascot's race today and they have actually increased the trip from 2m5f to 3m. Virak is the odds on favourite and he should win this. He won two Hunter Chases last year at Ludlow and then the Walrus at Haydock. He then ran down the field at Cheltenham before disappointing at Newton Abbot although he isn't the first horse to now show his form after running in the Foxhunter. He has gone to Rose Loxton this season and he has easily won 3 points. I saw the first of them at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and he had Arthur's Secret back in 3rd. Now Arthur's has improved since then and needed the run that day, but it is still good form. He might prefer a little bit of cut in the ground, but the point wins have been on good ground this term so it shouldn't be an issue and his form is a cut above the rest for me.
In Arrears didn't beat much in the end at Exeter, but she was impressive in doing so. She is clearly progressing nicely and I under estimated her ahead of the Exeter race. She looks the most likely to follow the favourite home.
If Queen Olivia could repeat the close 2nd to Road To Rome on her seasonal debut then she comes right into this, but the issue is she has gone backwards now. She was a well beaten 3rd behind Arthur's Secret although that wasn't a bad run, but she was then pulled up at Parham. I would imagine there was an issue that day because it was too bad to be true and if she bounces back then she isn't out of this.
Silvergrove was well beaten on his first start for 22 months at Fakenham and there is every chance he will come on for that, but I didn't see enough in that run for me to want to think he has a chance in this. Flaming Charmer was sold for 18k in December and did win at Chepstow off 121 the month before, but he was poor over 3m at Wincanton and he has never won over this far. Every chance he will need this as well against fit rivals.
Virak should win, but the price isn't exactly exciting so I will take a couple of forecasts. I don't fancy Silvergrove or Flying Charmer so I can rule them out. I was initially going to leave Queen Olivia out as she looks to be going backwards after a good run, but even the Ludlow 3rd could well be good enough to finish 2nd and the Parham run was too bad to be true so I will save on her. In Arrears though looks progressive even if the Exeter race wasn't strong and she is most likely to finish 2nd.
Virak to beat In Arrears 1pt fc
Virak to beat Queen Olivia 0.5pts fc

Sometimes not having a bet can be just as good as winning bet and not backing Always On The Run at odds on turned out to be a good move. It is rare to get a truly run race when there are only 3 runners, but he set a good clip and Ravished ran out a good winner in the end. It was some improvement from his recent form to win his point prior to Wetherby and this was a step up again. It will be interesting to see where they go with him next, but he should add to this win at the right level.
Onto Ascot's race today and they have actually increased the trip from 2m5f to 3m. Virak is the odds on favourite and he should win this. He won two Hunter Chases last year at Ludlow and then the Walrus at Haydock. He then ran down the field at Cheltenham before disappointing at Newton Abbot although he isn't the first horse to now show his form after running in the Foxhunter. He has gone to Rose Loxton this season and he has easily won 3 points. I saw the first of them at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and he had Arthur's Secret back in 3rd. Now Arthur's has improved since then and needed the run that day, but it is still good form. He might prefer a little bit of cut in the ground, but the point wins have been on good ground this term so it shouldn't be an issue and his form is a cut above the rest for me.
In Arrears didn't beat much in the end at Exeter, but she was impressive in doing so. She is clearly progressing nicely and I under estimated her ahead of the Exeter race. She looks the most likely to follow the favourite home.
If Queen Olivia could repeat the close 2nd to Road To Rome on her seasonal debut then she comes right into this, but the issue is she has gone backwards now. She was a well beaten 3rd behind Arthur's Secret although that wasn't a bad run, but she was then pulled up at Parham. I would imagine there was an issue that day because it was too bad to be true and if she bounces back then she isn't out of this.
Silvergrove was well beaten on his first start for 22 months at Fakenham and there is every chance he will come on for that, but I didn't see enough in that run for me to want to think he has a chance in this. Flaming Charmer was sold for 18k in December and did win at Chepstow off 121 the month before, but he was poor over 3m at Wincanton and he has never won over this far. Every chance he will need this as well against fit rivals.
Virak should win, but the price isn't exactly exciting so I will take a couple of forecasts. I don't fancy Silvergrove or Flying Charmer so I can rule them out. I was initially going to leave Queen Olivia out as she looks to be going backwards after a good run, but even the Ludlow 3rd could well be good enough to finish 2nd and the Parham run was too bad to be true so I will save on her. In Arrears though looks progressive even if the Exeter race wasn't strong and she is most likely to finish 2nd.
Virak to beat In Arrears 1pt fc
Virak to beat Queen Olivia 0.5pts fc

Sometimes not having a bet can be just as good as winning bet and not backing Always On The Run at odds on turned out to be a good move. It is rare to get a truly run race when there are only 3 runners, but he set a good clip and Ravished ran out a good winner in the end. It was some improvement from his recent form to win his point prior to Wetherby and this was a step up again. It will be interesting to see where they go with him next, but he should add to this win at the right level.
Onto Ascot's race today and they have actually increased the trip from 2m5f to 3m. Virak is the odds on favourite and he should win this. He won two Hunter Chases last year at Ludlow and then the Walrus at Haydock. He then ran down the field at Cheltenham before disappointing at Newton Abbot although he isn't the first horse to now show his form after running in the Foxhunter. He has gone to Rose Loxton this season and he has easily won 3 points. I saw the first of them at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and he had Arthur's Secret back in 3rd. Now Arthur's has improved since then and needed the run that day, but it is still good form. He might prefer a little bit of cut in the ground, but the point wins have been on good ground this term so it shouldn't be an issue and his form is a cut above the rest for me.
In Arrears didn't beat much in the end at Exeter, but she was impressive in doing so. She is clearly progressing nicely and I under estimated her ahead of the Exeter race. She looks the most likely to follow the favourite home.
If Queen Olivia could repeat the close 2nd to Road To Rome on her seasonal debut then she comes right into this, but the issue is she has gone backwards now. She was a well beaten 3rd behind Arthur's Secret although that wasn't a bad run, but she was then pulled up at Parham. I would imagine there was an issue that day because it was too bad to be true and if she bounces back then she isn't out of this.
Silvergrove was well beaten on his first start for 22 months at Fakenham and there is every chance he will come on for that, but I didn't see enough in that run for me to want to think he has a chance in this. Flaming Charmer was sold for 18k in December and did win at Chepstow off 121 the month before, but he was poor over 3m at Wincanton and he has never won over this far. Every chance he will need this as well against fit rivals.
Virak should win, but the price isn't exactly exciting so I will take a couple of forecasts. I don't fancy Silvergrove or Flying Charmer so I can rule them out. I was initially going to leave Queen Olivia out as she looks to be going backwards after a good run, but even the Ludlow 3rd could well be good enough to finish 2nd and the Parham run was too bad to be true so I will save on her. In Arrears though looks progressive even if the Exeter race wasn't strong and she is most likely to finish 2nd.
Virak to beat In Arrears 1pt fc
Virak to beat Queen Olivia 0.5pts fc

I know that it was frustrating that we could have got 3/1 about Risk A Fine, but it is worth pointing out that if I had been able to do the preview the night before racing as I usually do then the price was around the same price we backed it at anyway. It was great to see him perform like that and I can't help but think he was below par at Wincanton. Brave Jaq is a solid yardstick for the form and even he couldn't keep up with the winner who set a solid tempo and jumped really well. He was beaten 21L at the line. Marinero was never in contention and although the ground might have been quick enough for him he wouldn't have beaten the winner whatever.
Not surprisingly Marinero was taken out of the Wetherby race this afternoon which leaves us with just the 3 runners. Those of you who have been reading my stuff for most of the season will know I like Always On The Run. I thought he ran well behind Hazel Hill at Chaddesley Corbett when 3rd when making the running and he faded out of it late on. He came on for that run when finishing a good 3rd to Road To Rome at Ludlow. So he has run behind the Foxhunter winner and 4th so far this season. Track, trip and ground should be perfect for him and he is the one they have to beat especially as he is likely to be dictating things from the front.
Ravished was 3rd and 2nd in his first 2 points this season and then at Hutton Rudby last time he went and won by a huge 40L in the fastest time of the day. That is obviously impressive, but I have concerns about the worth of that form. He was the joint youngest horse in the race at 11 and it wasn't a strong field. Still you have to respect any horse that can win a race by 40L. Iron Chancellor also won on the card, but was 2 seconds slower carrying less weight and as much as he is in the best form he has been in for a while he shouldn't really be winning this.
I was at one stage considering putting up a small bet on Ravished mainly based on price, but at the end of the day I think Always On The Run is the most likely winner. I couldn't see Ravished getting within 10L of Road To Rome and he kept tabs on Hazel Hill for a fair way on his opening run of the season as well. I think the current price is about right though so I won't be suggesting a bet on it. Given it is heading towards 11pm in Melbourne I won't be able to update this should he drift out, but I would be happy to have a bet at a shade of odds on or bigger.
 

I know that it was frustrating that we could have got 3/1 about Risk A Fine, but it is worth pointing out that if I had been able to do the preview the night before racing as I usually do then the price was around the same price we backed it at anyway. It was great to see him perform like that and I can't help but think he was below par at Wincanton. Brave Jaq is a solid yardstick for the form and even he couldn't keep up with the winner who set a solid tempo and jumped really well. He was beaten 21L at the line. Marinero was never in contention and although the ground might have been quick enough for him he wouldn't have beaten the winner whatever.
Not surprisingly Marinero was taken out of the Wetherby race this afternoon which leaves us with just the 3 runners. Those of you who have been reading my stuff for most of the season will know I like Always On The Run. I thought he ran well behind Hazel Hill at Chaddesley Corbett when 3rd when making the running and he faded out of it late on. He came on for that run when finishing a good 3rd to Road To Rome at Ludlow. So he has run behind the Foxhunter winner and 4th so far this season. Track, trip and ground should be perfect for him and he is the one they have to beat especially as he is likely to be dictating things from the front.
Ravished was 3rd and 2nd in his first 2 points this season and then at Hutton Rudby last time he went and won by a huge 40L in the fastest time of the day. That is obviously impressive, but I have concerns about the worth of that form. He was the joint youngest horse in the race at 11 and it wasn't a strong field. Still you have to respect any horse that can win a race by 40L. Iron Chancellor also won on the card, but was 2 seconds slower carrying less weight and as much as he is in the best form he has been in for a while he shouldn't really be winning this.
I was at one stage considering putting up a small bet on Ravished mainly based on price, but at the end of the day I think Always On The Run is the most likely winner. I couldn't see Ravished getting within 10L of Road To Rome and he kept tabs on Hazel Hill for a fair way on his opening run of the season as well. I think the current price is about right though so I won't be suggesting a bet on it. Given it is heading towards 11pm in Melbourne I won't be able to update this should he drift out, but I would be happy to have a bet at a shade of odds on or bigger.
 

Later than usual and a bit annoying because when I looked at the betting about 3 hours ago I had in mind what I would put up only to now see that the betting has totally changed during the morning. Risk A Fine was put in pretty short last night and then drifted out to 3/1 this morning, but has now been backed back in and is no bigger than 13/8 now. People who have been following me for most of the season will know I was really taken by this horse when I saw him win a point over Christmas and he did it well at Fakenham over a track and trip that didn't suit. In the end I had a small bet on him to win at Wincanton but Monsieur Gibraltar was too good for him in the end. I did wonder at the time if maybe I had over-rated the horse, but I am going to give him another chance here. Marinero won at Ascot a year ago in a race that I fancied Monsieur Gibraltar to win, but Harriett Tucker fell off him that day and it meant Marinero had little to do in the end to win as the rest were a poor bunch and the 2nd didn't stay. I thought Marinero ran well enough on his seasonal return at Ludlow, but he was then beaten even further by Road To Rome back there the next time which has to be a concern. I think Monsieur Gibraltar would have easily beaten Marinero at Ascot so based on that there isn't much between them, but Risk A Fine has certainly shown better form this season in my view. It is frustrating I didn't get chance to write this earlier, but given the drift I wasn't then expecting it to be smashed off the boards so that took me by surprise. Even so I am happy to back it at the price.
Brave Jaq is the only other one to consider. In both starts this season he has been less keen than he was last season and it meant he was able to see out the 2m4f at Stratford last time. I thought it was a good performance, but it was a lesser race than this and I would have been backing either of the other two to have won that contest. The other concern is Warwick is more of a stamina test than Stratford and even now he is more settled in his races I do think this trip might be far enough for him especially against classy opposition.
Risk A Fine 2pts @ 13/8 with Bet365
 

Later than usual and a bit annoying because when I looked at the betting about 3 hours ago I had in mind what I would put up only to now see that the betting has totally changed during the morning. Risk A Fine was put in pretty short last night and then drifted out to 3/1 this morning, but has now been backed back in and is no bigger than 13/8 now. People who have been following me for most of the season will know I was really taken by this horse when I saw him win a point over Christmas and he did it well at Fakenham over a track and trip that didn't suit. In the end I had a small bet on him to win at Wincanton but Monsieur Gibraltar was too good for him in the end. I did wonder at the time if maybe I had over-rated the horse, but I am going to give him another chance here. Marinero won at Ascot a year ago in a race that I fancied Monsieur Gibraltar to win, but Harriett Tucker fell off him that day and it meant Marinero had little to do in the end to win as the rest were a poor bunch and the 2nd didn't stay. I thought Marinero ran well enough on his seasonal return at Ludlow, but he was then beaten even further by Road To Rome back there the next time which has to be a concern. I think Monsieur Gibraltar would have easily beaten Marinero at Ascot so based on that there isn't much between them, but Risk A Fine has certainly shown better form this season in my view. It is frustrating I didn't get chance to write this earlier, but given the drift I wasn't then expecting it to be smashed off the boards so that took me by surprise. Even so I am happy to back it at the price.
Brave Jaq is the only other one to consider. In both starts this season he has been less keen than he was last season and it meant he was able to see out the 2m4f at Stratford last time. I thought it was a good performance, but it was a lesser race than this and I would have been backing either of the other two to have won that contest. The other concern is Warwick is more of a stamina test than Stratford and even now he is more settled in his races I do think this trip might be far enough for him especially against classy opposition.
Risk A Fine 2pts @ 13/8 with Bet365
 

Later than usual and a bit annoying because when I looked at the betting about 3 hours ago I had in mind what I would put up only to now see that the betting has totally changed during the morning. Risk A Fine was put in pretty short last night and then drifted out to 3/1 this morning, but has now been backed back in and is no bigger than 13/8 now. People who have been following me for most of the season will know I was really taken by this horse when I saw him win a point over Christmas and he did it well at Fakenham over a track and trip that didn't suit. In the end I had a small bet on him to win at Wincanton but Monsieur Gibraltar was too good for him in the end. I did wonder at the time if maybe I had over-rated the horse, but I am going to give him another chance here. Marinero won at Ascot a year ago in a race that I fancied Monsieur Gibraltar to win, but Harriett Tucker fell off him that day and it meant Marinero had little to do in the end to win as the rest were a poor bunch and the 2nd didn't stay. I thought Marinero ran well enough on his seasonal return at Ludlow, but he was then beaten even further by Road To Rome back there the next time which has to be a concern. I think Monsieur Gibraltar would have easily beaten Marinero at Ascot so based on that there isn't much between them, but Risk A Fine has certainly shown better form this season in my view. It is frustrating I didn't get chance to write this earlier, but given the drift I wasn't then expecting it to be smashed off the boards so that took me by surprise. Even so I am happy to back it at the price.
Brave Jaq is the only other one to consider. In both starts this season he has been less keen than he was last season and it meant he was able to see out the 2m4f at Stratford last time. I thought it was a good performance, but it was a lesser race than this and I would have been backing either of the other two to have won that contest. The other concern is Warwick is more of a stamina test than Stratford and even now he is more settled in his races I do think this trip might be far enough for him especially against classy opposition.
Risk A Fine 2pts @ 13/8 with Bet365
 

Later than usual and a bit annoying because when I looked at the betting about 3 hours ago I had in mind what I would put up only to now see that the betting has totally changed during the morning. Risk A Fine was put in pretty short last night and then drifted out to 3/1 this morning, but has now been backed back in and is no bigger than 13/8 now. People who have been following me for most of the season will know I was really taken by this horse when I saw him win a point over Christmas and he did it well at Fakenham over a track and trip that didn't suit. In the end I had a small bet on him to win at Wincanton but Monsieur Gibraltar was too good for him in the end. I did wonder at the time if maybe I had over-rated the horse, but I am going to give him another chance here. Marinero won at Ascot a year ago in a race that I fancied Monsieur Gibraltar to win, but Harriett Tucker fell off him that day and it meant Marinero had little to do in the end to win as the rest were a poor bunch and the 2nd didn't stay. I thought Marinero ran well enough on his seasonal return at Ludlow, but he was then beaten even further by Road To Rome back there the next time which has to be a concern. I think Monsieur Gibraltar would have easily beaten Marinero at Ascot so based on that there isn't much between them, but Risk A Fine has certainly shown better form this season in my view. It is frustrating I didn't get chance to write this earlier, but given the drift I wasn't then expecting it to be smashed off the boards so that took me by surprise. Even so I am happy to back it at the price.
Brave Jaq is the only other one to consider. In both starts this season he has been less keen than he was last season and it meant he was able to see out the 2m4f at Stratford last time. I thought it was a good performance, but it was a lesser race than this and I would have been backing either of the other two to have won that contest. The other concern is Warwick is more of a stamina test than Stratford and even now he is more settled in his races I do think this trip might be far enough for him especially against classy opposition.
Risk A Fine 2pts @ 13/8 with Bet365
 

Later than usual and a bit annoying because when I looked at the betting about 3 hours ago I had in mind what I would put up only to now see that the betting has totally changed during the morning. Risk A Fine was put in pretty short last night and then drifted out to 3/1 this morning, but has now been backed back in and is no bigger than 13/8 now. People who have been following me for most of the season will know I was really taken by this horse when I saw him win a point over Christmas and he did it well at Fakenham over a track and trip that didn't suit. In the end I had a small bet on him to win at Wincanton but Monsieur Gibraltar was too good for him in the end. I did wonder at the time if maybe I had over-rated the horse, but I am going to give him another chance here. Marinero won at Ascot a year ago in a race that I fancied Monsieur Gibraltar to win, but Harriett Tucker fell off him that day and it meant Marinero had little to do in the end to win as the rest were a poor bunch and the 2nd didn't stay. I thought Marinero ran well enough on his seasonal return at Ludlow, but he was then beaten even further by Road To Rome back there the next time which has to be a concern. I think Monsieur Gibraltar would have easily beaten Marinero at Ascot so based on that there isn't much between them, but Risk A Fine has certainly shown better form this season in my view. It is frustrating I didn't get chance to write this earlier, but given the drift I wasn't then expecting it to be smashed off the boards so that took me by surprise. Even so I am happy to back it at the price.
Brave Jaq is the only other one to consider. In both starts this season he has been less keen than he was last season and it meant he was able to see out the 2m4f at Stratford last time. I thought it was a good performance, but it was a lesser race than this and I would have been backing either of the other two to have won that contest. The other concern is Warwick is more of a stamina test than Stratford and even now he is more settled in his races I do think this trip might be far enough for him especially against classy opposition.
Risk A Fine 2pts @ 13/8 with Bet365
 

He isn’t great and I guess he wanted to use the horses stamina so kicked on. Surprised he got beat actually once he hit the front. At least optimised covered things

This amazing run since the start of the season is going to end at some point I would imagine but Master Baker was yet another winner. As per the Taunton win she sat near the back with him and came with his challenge as they entered the straight. He jumped really well and although the 2nd got to him Master Baker never really looked like he was going to be beaten. Cheltenham Hunter Chase night and the Stratford Foxhunters are the targets for him. Southfield Vic ran a much better race than at Fontwell and I would imagine he will find an opportunity to win at some point. Forgotten Gold didn't run too badly in 3rd and again it was an improvement on the Doncaster effort. I thought Sam Red ran fairly well as well given he was off the bridle for a fair way and he might have a chance of winning a Hunter Chase if found the right race. I thought Maxwell gave Village Vic a poor ride. He went pretty quick and it wasn't much of a surprise that he had little left down the home straight. You would think he will come on for that and I wouldn't completely rule out him winning this term.
A small field for Bangor's Hunter Chase, but I am looking forward to watching the replay when I wake up as we have 4 good horses taking each other on. Optimised is currently the favourite and he has looked an improved horse this season. He was really well back for the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham last season and he travelled well into the race before looking like he didn't stay. I saw him run at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and he was well beaten by Risk A Fine that day, but he has won both starts since at Bangor's point track. In the first of them he beat stablemate Bears Affair which is a good effort and then he bolted up earlier in the month. Garde Ville also won on that card and Optimised clocked a time 3 seconds quicker whilst carrying 12lbs more. Looking at the last circuit sectionals as well though the race Garde Ville won just looks like it was a slowly run race so the times might be a bit mis-leading this time around. Clearly connections think a lot of him as they could have found easier Hunter Chases than this so he has to be respected.
Unioniste is Maxwell's contender in this Hunter Chase and it is interesting to read that the Racing Post spotlight writer thinks this is calmer waters compared to his Taunton race from last time, but I don't think it really is because this is a good race. He did pretty well Hunter Chasing last season until the ground was too quick at Wincanton when he was beaten in a poor race. The ground will suit here and you would imagine he will come on for the Taunton run. Clearly though they thought he might be well handicapped, but think he isn't now. If he won it wouldn't surprise me, but I am happy to take him on.
Galway Jack is a horse I have really struggled to get right since he came back to Hunter Chasing a couple of years ago. If I backed him he lost and if I took him on he won. He will make the running, but he is 14 now and you have to think he might just need the run first up in a tough race especially as I have always thought he is better over a shorter trip.
That leaves us with Garde Ville who there was stupid prices about early doors. The John Corbett Cup win is looking decent form with Master Baker who fell at the last when still just in front. I thought he ran well first up this season at Ludlow behind Arthur's Secret when 4th and then as mentioned above he won at Bangor in a point last time. A slowly run race wouldn't have suited him either as stamina is his strong point so he did well to win. I suspect he will continue to improve as the season goes on as well. Soft ground is ideal and with Galway Jack going to make the running he should have pace to run at. He is also the only horse to beat Hazel Hill since that horse came to the UK.
I make Garde Ville the main selection here as I think he is still progressive and he looks to have everything in his favour. I think he is over priced at 5/1 and I would still be happy to take the 7/2 that most bookies are going. I am going to cover Optimised as well. He is clearly highly thought of by connections who know the time of day and given he looks to have progressed again this season I want him onside.
Garde Ville 1.5pts @ 5/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair
Optimised 1pt @ 9/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair

This amazing run since the start of the season is going to end at some point I would imagine but Master Baker was yet another winner. As per the Taunton win she sat near the back with him and came with his challenge as they entered the straight. He jumped really well and although the 2nd got to him Master Baker never really looked like he was going to be beaten. Cheltenham Hunter Chase night and the Stratford Foxhunters are the targets for him. Southfield Vic ran a much better race than at Fontwell and I would imagine he will find an opportunity to win at some point. Forgotten Gold didn't run too badly in 3rd and again it was an improvement on the Doncaster effort. I thought Sam Red ran fairly well as well given he was off the bridle for a fair way and he might have a chance of winning a Hunter Chase if found the right race. I thought Maxwell gave Village Vic a poor ride. He went pretty quick and it wasn't much of a surprise that he had little left down the home straight. You would think he will come on for that and I wouldn't completely rule out him winning this term.
A small field for Bangor's Hunter Chase, but I am looking forward to watching the replay when I wake up as we have 4 good horses taking each other on. Optimised is currently the favourite and he has looked an improved horse this season. He was really well back for the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham last season and he travelled well into the race before looking like he didn't stay. I saw him run at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and he was well beaten by Risk A Fine that day, but he has won both starts since at Bangor's point track. In the first of them he beat stablemate Bears Affair which is a good effort and then he bolted up earlier in the month. Garde Ville also won on that card and Optimised clocked a time 3 seconds quicker whilst carrying 12lbs more. Looking at the last circuit sectionals as well though the race Garde Ville won just looks like it was a slowly run race so the times might be a bit mis-leading this time around. Clearly connections think a lot of him as they could have found easier Hunter Chases than this so he has to be respected.
Unioniste is Maxwell's contender in this Hunter Chase and it is interesting to read that the Racing Post spotlight writer thinks this is calmer waters compared to his Taunton race from last time, but I don't think it really is because this is a good race. He did pretty well Hunter Chasing last season until the ground was too quick at Wincanton when he was beaten in a poor race. The ground will suit here and you would imagine he will come on for the Taunton run. Clearly though they thought he might be well handicapped, but think he isn't now. If he won it wouldn't surprise me, but I am happy to take him on.
Galway Jack is a horse I have really struggled to get right since he came back to Hunter Chasing a couple of years ago. If I backed him he lost and if I took him on he won. He will make the running, but he is 14 now and you have to think he might just need the run first up in a tough race especially as I have always thought he is better over a shorter trip.
That leaves us with Garde Ville who there was stupid prices about early doors. The John Corbett Cup win is looking decent form with Master Baker who fell at the last when still just in front. I thought he ran well first up this season at Ludlow behind Arthur's Secret when 4th and then as mentioned above he won at Bangor in a point last time. A slowly run race wouldn't have suited him either as stamina is his strong point so he did well to win. I suspect he will continue to improve as the season goes on as well. Soft ground is ideal and with Galway Jack going to make the running he should have pace to run at. He is also the only horse to beat Hazel Hill since that horse came to the UK.
I make Garde Ville the main selection here as I think he is still progressive and he looks to have everything in his favour. I think he is over priced at 5/1 and I would still be happy to take the 7/2 that most bookies are going. I am going to cover Optimised as well. He is clearly highly thought of by connections who know the time of day and given he looks to have progressed again this season I want him onside.
Garde Ville 1.5pts @ 5/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair
Optimised 1pt @ 9/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair

Lovely to wake up and watch Arthur's Secret do his thing at Ludlow. It was another impressive performance and he clocked a time 5 seconds faster than a novice handicap chase over the same trip and the winner of that was carrying 13lbs less! I was never concerned that he wasn't going to win and Ballotin was very much 2nd best for me when he came down. As much as Maxwell tried to get close to the winner it just meant Arthur's went even quicker and he couldn't get to him. He was 2L down at the time he came down and it would have been double figures come the line in my view. The way he jumped the last told you that he had loads left in the tank and it really is a shame he isn't going to Aintree because it would have been some sight watching him and Road To Rome go at it.
The betting told the story at Chepstow as I said it would and all the money was for Double Ross and he did it well to win. It seems he ran at Leicester to try and get him qualified for Aintree, but ran out of time in the end so he will just stick to normal Hunter Chases. The 2nd ran well enough and might find an opportunity. The 3rd also ran a solid race and could win one when not facing such strong opposition.
Onto Newbury on Friday and we finally get to see Village Vic run in a Hunter Chase. I think it was the Hereford one that was called off a couple of months ago that he was set to run in and I was happy to take him on that day and I am again here. Clearly he has plenty of back class and he was running in good races last season, but he wasn't showing a great deal and he has only got round once in his last 5 starts and he was well beaten in the Plate at the Festival that day. He could well be capable of winning this, but you are clearly taking a lot on trust if you do back him.
Southfield Theatre and Forgotten Gold were both stuffed behind easy winners on their Hunter Chase debuts and they need to come on a lot for me to win this. It is always hard to gage how a horse has performed behind an easy winner, but I didn't see a great deal of promise in either's efforts to warrant backing them here.
That leaves us with Master Baker who is the pick for me. It was no surprise he put a poor field to the sword at Taunton and he sets a very good standard for the former rules horses to reach. How on earth 365 priced him up at 4/1 I don't know and it was a surprise that price lasted for even the 5 minutes it did. I would make him favourite myself as we know where we stand with him whereas with the other 3 it is all guesswork and they are going to have to still have a lot of ability to be good enough to beat him. Village Vic clearly isn't a 150 horse anymore and if he has gone back 20lbs then he won't be wining this for me.
Master Baker 1.5pts @ 15/8 with Paddy Power and Unibet

I honestly don’t remember having a run like this but long may it continue. @Sir Puntalot certainly chose the right season to bring me exclusively on here.