Darran

Hopefully people have enjoyed my Road To The Cheltenham Foxhunter thread and it has helped keep everyone up to date with a race that always gets overlooked by the mainstream (and less mainstream) press despite the fact quite a lot of people actually are interested especially when you have well known horses like Minella Rocco and Don Poli involved. If you haven't seen and want to see my thoughts over the last 3 or so months then that thread is here https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/171460-road-to-the-cheltenham-foxhunters/   This year's preview clocks in at just under 4000 words and apparently will take just under 15 minutes to read. I can't guarantee I will find the winner, but hopefully it will help guide you to what you want to back in the race. I have yet to see a more in depth preview of the race so without further or do here are my thoughts on the 31 horses remaining in this year's Cheltenham Foxhunter.   Alcala - Rather unusually looks set to be Paul Nicholls' only runner in this race this year. Classy horse as his peak mark of 152 suggests and he won the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in 2017 off 142. He looked set to win on his first start since July 2018 when falling 2 out at Ludlow. He then made amends when winning the Walrus at Haydock getting the better of Wishing And Hoping despite making a bad error 2 out. After that he had to go to Fontwell to qualify for this and I don't think Angus Cheleda was overly hard on him at all given he knew he only had to finish 2nd to qualify. His trainer spoke of him having two hard races, but I find it hard to believe he had much of a race last time out. My concern about his chance is his stamina. At Ludlow they went no pace so it turned into a sprint, Haydock was over 2m6f and again they went a steady enough gallop as they did over 3m2f at Fontwell. The race he won over 3m2f in 2017 was a match. If he stays he is a player, but it is enough to put me off.   Arctic Skipper - Won his first two points this season, but was a well beaten 8th at Down Royal behind Dylrow on Boxing Day. He won a 3 runner point last month, but a week later pulled up and it is hard to see him being good enough.   Billaway - Willie Mullins has been talking his chances up in recent weeks and I can see why given he seems to be progressive and visually he ran out an impressive winner at Naas in January. That was his 2nd run of the season having run a nice race on his return to be 2nd at Down Royal on Boxing Day just going down a length to Dylrow. That Naas race was run at an absolute crawl though and it turned into a sprint which clearly suited him perfectly. To me that makes the form a bit suspect and I can see the 2nd reversing form with him for reasons I will state later. I certainly think he is one of the possible winners though given his profile offers more than most here, but I certainly don't think his price offers any value.   Bishops Road - Thrashed a very good horse in Risk A Fine at the hunter chase meeting here in May, but the 2nd didn't handle the track or the ground that day so I wouldn't take it at face value. Bizarrely he then ran in a point 3 days later when he fell. I now wonder if they were trying to qualify him for this and get it out of the way. Instead they had to do that this season and he did so when finishing 2nd in the first hunter chase of the season at Taunton. That was behind Wishing And Hoping and he was 2nd on his seasonal return in a point back in November. For me he has a bit too find although the trip shouldn't be a concern given he used to run over further.   Caid du Berlais - The first of a trio of runners for Rose Loxton and a horse I have already put up as a bet last month. As long as the ground continues to dry out I think he has a massive chance. He ran really well on soft ground when beaten less than 4L when 5th to Pacha Du Polder in 2018. He then went onto land the Punchestown Champion Hunters Chase by 21L. Last year he had a rushed prep as he picked up a minor injury and he only made his reappearance 12 days before the race. He then ran no sort of race and he was never travelling before pulling up. He then went back to Punchestown and won by an even bigger margin, 28L, than last year. This year he has had a much smoother prep as he made his seasonal return at Buckfastleigh in January and he beat Marcle Ridge by 5L which is really solid form. His trainer has mentioned she is not sure if he gets up the hill and that was the case in 2018, but if we have quicker ground on Friday I think he will. He is also 2 years older now which should help. His two Punchestown wins are two of the best pieces of form in the race and he has to go on any shortlist.   Chosen Dream - Landed the Stratford Foxhunter in 2018, but was flattered by that as the ground was over watered which meant the fancied horses disappointed. He pulled up in this last year and although I am told he is really well on form it is hard to make much of a case for him   Don Bersy - Won a couple of points last season, but shown better form this term for me as he beat Bishops Road in November, was 2nd to The Dellercheckout and then won by 20 at Thorpe Lodge. He then refused to race last month which is something he did in his last two starts under Rules. That has to be a big concern if you are wanting to back him, but his form doesn't look good enough anyway. His previous Rules form was all over 2m as well.   Don Poli - Rare that a point to point makes the front page of the Racing Post, but he did when winning at Alnwick back in December. I think it was a good idea to send the horse to Nick Pearce to get him qualified nice and early in a couple of points. He is already a duel Festival winner having won the Martin Pipe in 2014 and then the RSA Chase the following year. In 2016 he was 3rd in the Gold Cup and he was the Lexus winner that season as well. So he clearly has plenty of back class, but the problem is he had shown any form under Rules since February 2017. He appreciated the drop in class when winning those points, but he had to be niggled in both races to keep him interested and he was made to work quite hard to win the 2nd of them. Winning a couple of small field, weak points is one thing, winning a Foxhunter is a totally different ball game though. No doubt Nick had left a bit to work on, but I wasn't impressed with what I saw at Alnwick and I think in a big field in a race that is likely to be strongly run that he will just drop himself out and not fancy it. What I will say though is if you do want to back him because he hasn't been seen since January he has been forgotten about and you are probably getting a bigger price than if he had run recently or in a hunter chase.   Dunhallow Tornado - Ollie Pimlott has had a cracking start to his training career and this is a horse I really like. He looked impressive in two hunter chase wins at Catterick and Kelso 2 years ago and then found the ground too quick at Cheltenham's hunter chase night. Unfortunately he had to miss last season through injury and he returned last month  at Brocklesby when getting up close home to score. That was a pleasing come back run and if it did happen to be soft/heavy on Friday I would want to be backing him. The problem is the forecast is suggesting it isn't going to be that testing and as much as he will handle it my thinking is it brings more horses into play the quicker it gets. Connections will probably be wishing this race had been on Tuesday when it was very testing and although I think he can out run his price, the drying ground is enough to stop me backing him.   Dylrow - Looks an improved horse this season having beaten Mighty Stowaway on his first point start in November. He then beat Billaway at Down Royal on Boxing Day. He was then only 5th at Naas behind him the following month. That race turned into a sprint as mentioned so I do think the form is suspect, but given he was winning over 2m a year ago you would have thought that would have suited him. There is a case to say that he shouldn't really be 50/1 based on the Down Royal effort, but he wouldn't be for me.   Hazel Hill - Last year's impressive winner and currently favourite to retain his crown as Salsify, On The Fringe and Pacha Du Polder have done in recent years. There is no doubt he was the best hunter chaser around last season although there has to be a question mark about what sort of form he is currently in. After the Foxhunter win he came back for hunter chase night and just got the better of a great battle with Caryto Des Brosses. He was set to follow the same path to Cheltenham as he did last season, but Chaddesley Corbett was called off and that meant Warwick came too soon after his win at Sheriff Hutton. That told us little new, but it is the defeat to Minella Rocco at Wetherby which is the issue. He jumped badly to his right there something which he didn't do in this race year, but he did do here in May. My feeling is a small field might be to blame for that and with more horses around him he will jump straighter. I don't think he wants to make the running and that didn't help matters at Wetherby. The trainer said afterwards he was a bit sore so that was one excuse and I also think Derek O'Connor out rode Alex Edwards as well. I will talk more about that later, but I do think at the very least he will reverse form. The problem is he is hard to want to back at the current price because of his run last time and although I do think we will see a different horse here I would want a drift before backing him. The trainer is confident of a big showing and he could be a horse to get onside on the day because I think he will drift and then the doubt about what sort of form he is in will be factored into the price. If he is in the same form as last year then he clearly has a massive chance.   It Came To Pass - Beat Billaway in a hunter chase at Cork last April and then probably would have finished a distant 2nd to Caid Du Berlais at Punchestown, but he unseated at 2 out. 10 days later he did then beat On The Fringe at Killarney. He won a hunter chase at Cork in Novemeber which was basically his seasonal debut as he unseated at the first the week before. Was a 24L 7th to Dylrow and Down Royal and was pulled up last time out. On balance his form suggests he has a fair bit to find.   Law Of Gold - Was progressive last season and it ended in winning the John Corbet at Stratford in May. I didn't think it was the strongest renewal of the race especially as some fancied horses disappointed. Having said that Pink Eyed Pedro was 3rd and he has done well in handicaps since. He has had just the one start so far this season at Horseheath when running out an easy winner. That wasn't a strong race, but he could do no more win than as he did. The problem is I think he needs good ground and any soft in it is not going to help him. This is by far the best race he has ever been in as well and at 7 it could just be it comes at least a year too soon for him.   Marcle Ridge - Won a very weak race here on hunter chase night and then was 2nd at Warwick. At the time it didn't look a great effort, but given Killaro Boy nearly won a huge prize at Uttoxeter in the summer then he did well finish within 9L of him. As mentioned above he was 2nd to Caid Du Berlais on his only run of the season so far. That was a solid effort, but also his form suggests he has to find a bit to hit the frame here.   Minella Rocco - I suspect plenty of non hunter chase experts will be all over him on Friday and we will see plenty of at at his best he is the best horse in the race. I have already seen two TV presenters put him up as one of their best bets of the meeting which is crazy given they know little about hunter chases and you can be certain that neither will know anything about a horse like Law Of Gold for example. Maybe he will win, but all I keep hearing about his chances is that he was 2nd in a Gold Cup and he has won at the Festival before. The problem is that was 3 and 4 years ago now and since then he has basically been pretty poor and he was even struggling to complete. His two hunter chase wins this season were only his 2nd and 3rd wins over fences and I think he was fortunate to win those. At Warwick he benefited from Maxwell getting cramp on Bob And Co and then looked like getting beat by a horse could Kashmir Peak who has been beaten in a weak hunter chase and a weak point since. Derek O'Connor came over for the ride at Wetherby and he gave him a very clever ride to win the race and the chances are Hazel Hill ran below form. Derek kept him wide on the better ground and left it late to pounce. Reading between the lines of what Derek has written in his column in the Racing Post I don't think he fancies his chances at all and it was no surprise to me that he has said he will be riding Staker Wallace on the preview circuit. If the ground dried out a lot then I can see he will change to Minella Rocco as Staker Wallace needs cut in the ground. In my view he will get back into a bigger field at a strong pace and decide he doesn't fancy it again. I'd be tempted to place lay him on the day if he's a short enough price. Horses of his sort of profile rarely win the race nowadays and it will be a case of non hunter chase experts 1 hunter chase experts 0 if he does go and win (as was the case when Pacha Du Polder first won the race).   Update: Since writing the above Derek O'Connor has surprised everyone by going with Minella Rocco over Staker Wallace. For me this could mean 3 things. 1 he things the ground is going to dry out too much for Staker Wallace and/or Minella Rocco has been working the house down at Jonjo's and he has had to go with him and/or he things the Irish horses aren't as good as the British. Now Derek has chosen him I am not as negative on his chances as I was before, although I still personally can't back him.   Mr Mercurial - Been such a consistent hunter chaser over the years and his Scottish Foxhunter win was his 9th hunter chase success. I don't think he stays this far round a track like Cheltenham and he was 12th in this back in 2016 and was the same position at Aintree last year. Will run his race, but will be surprised if he is good enough to get close.   Rewritetherules - Sprung onto the hunter chase scene in May last year when winning at Down Royal and Tipperary in the space of 3 days. His next run was in a handicap where he was only 6th off 116. This season he beat a useful enough field first up and then struggled to win a weak race last month. On the face of it that was a very poor effort, but the trainer said he had a stone bruise the week before and the owners were keen to run as it was their local meeting. His jockey said he got there too soon and he idled as well. So we should be expecting more here and he is progressive, but he is only 6 and you have to be very good to win this race as young as that. I am happy to pass him over.   Sausalito Sunrise - Beat Ravished at Hexham last April in a hunter chase when with his former connections, but then was very disappointing at Worcester. Won the Lord Ashton Of Hyde's Cup at Cocklebarrow over 3m6f on his only start for his new connections. That was a decent enough effort, but nowhere near the level for this.   Shantou Flyer - Ran a huge race to be 2nd in the race last year especially as he had to run twice in 10 days to qualify for the race after being 5th at Warwick behind Hazel Hill on his first hunter chase start. He narrowed that gap to 4L in this contest. He is now at former Paul Nicholls worker Rose Loxton's yard and he made a winning return at Larkhill in a race which has actually worked out very well. Given he was below par on his seasonal return last season I fully expect him to carry on improving and he was totally dominate at Fakenham where he had Tully Touch 25L back in 3rd and giving him 11lbs whereas Law Of Gold only beat him 12L off level weights. It was good to see Maxwell choosing to run him over Bob And Co as I think that is the right decision. The owner/rider has even said he feels a better horse this time around. He is only 10 as well and I think he has a massive chance.   Southfield Theatre - Gave Lily Bradstock a lovely spin round in the race last year when 9th although that was 48L behind Hazel Hill. Did well to win the 4m race on hunter chase night here and has won two of his three points this season. On the other he was beaten by Virak which was still a decent effort. Hard to see how he can really improve on last year's 9th though.   Staker Wallace - Has been a hard horse to keep sound as since making his debut in November 2015 he has only run 6 times. In 2017 on just his 4th start and after wining a maiden point he ran a really credible 3rd to Foxrock at Leopardstown. He then had 3 years off before running a huge race to finish an 8L 2nd at Naas. Given the lay off you can upgrade the performance and he followed that up with beating a solid yardstick in a point to make sure he qualified for this. Derek has been talking him up on the preview circuit and it is clear he holds him in high regard. At this stage to me he is the main Irish hope in the race. He does need soft ground so he wouldn't want to dry out and if it did I can see Derek not riding or him even not running in the race. If Derek's name is next to his on Wednesday morning then I think he will end up going off favourite for the race. I have already put him up for this ante-post.   Update: As mentioned above Minella Rocco is Derek's ride although Jamie Codd has been booked so there is still a top jockey booked, but I am surprised Derek has changed his mind.   Stella Notion - Was a useful handicapper for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and managed to win at Kelso off 137 in May 2018 for Tom George. He then went to Tom Frost's where he won two points at Larkhil before being beaten 38L by Monsieur Gibraltar at Southwell. According to the Racing Post he is now on his 3rd trainer since then having run once for Emma Clark when he was pulled up behind Hazel Hill at Sheriff Hutton in January. Now Philip Kirby trains him and I have been told that James King takes the ride which is a good jockey booking. Wouldn't be an obvious one to back, but the trainer might bring about some improvement.   Top Wood - I can see Top Wood being popular e/w given his superb record in the race. He was just denied by Pacha Du Polder and Harriett Tucker two years ago and then he was 3rd to Hazel Hill last year. After that he then went and won at Aintree when he wanted it more than Burning Ambition in 2nd. He ran really well on his seasonal return when 2nd in a handicap at Ascot off 139 and he was over 15L in front of Minella Rocco. Wasn't quite as good at Haydock next time, but the ground was very testing that day. I couldn't really put anyone off wanting to back him e/w, but he is now 13 and surely he has had his best chance of actually winning the race.   Kalabaloo - The only mare in the race and she was an impressive winner of the mares race on hunter chase night. Was then sent off a short price favourite for the John Corbet Cup at Stratford and was a well beaten 4th behind Law Of Gold. Has won a couple of Ladies Opens at Alnwick this season but the fact she was 1/2 and 2/5 tells you all about the quality of the opposition. My feeling is she is unlikely to be good enough, but I do think she is better than she showed at Stratford and can run a nice race.   Summary - With no more rain forecast it looks like the ground is only going to get drier come race time and I would say we will be looking at good to soft all round. Ideally Staker Wallace would want it softer, but it should be OK still and even though Derek has decided not to ride, Jamie Codd has an incredible strike rate at the Festival so he is a great jockey to have still. I have to say though he is the right sort of price so I am not sure there is much value left in the price. I have no idea who will be favourite now. I would imagine Minella Rocco will be popular among the non hunter chase/pointing followers and I see Paul Kealy has tipped him up in The Weekender. Even though Derek is on him I would still be a bit surprised if he did go and win, but as I mention above I am not so strongly against him as I was. Billaway has been spoken highly by his trainer so he could be popular in the market although given how much speed he showed last time I just wonder if he wants a stamina test and I think Staker Wallace can reverse the form. Hazel Hill is touching 6/1 now and I wonder if he might drift a bit more. I might add a small cover bet on Friday if he does drift a bit more because his trainer remains confident and given he has swerved the race with Wishing And Hoping he clearly thinks he still has a massive chance despite the loss last time. That is clearly a concern, but as mentioned above there is reason to believe that he could easily bounce back here.   Caid Du Berlais is the other horse I put up and he is back out to 14/1 in a couple of places now. I am topping up to make it a full point on him now especially with the extra place available. The ground should have dried up for him and I fully expect him to run more like his 2018 showing than his 2019 one. With his class I find it pretty hard to see him out of the first 5 at the very least and hopefully he can finish strongly up the hill.    The main bet I am going to have though is Shantou Flyer to give David Maxwell his first win in the race. I think he has chosen the right horse over Bob And Co and he ran a really good race to finish 2nd in the race last year. He won a point which has worked out very well on his seasonal reappearance and then bolted up at Fakenham after which Maxwell said he was better than last season. If he is right then that clearly makes him a leading candidate and I think he is a big price at 9/1.   Top Wood will have his fans, but I think at 13 his best chance of actually winning has gone. I know a few shrewd pointing followers are keen on Law Of Gold at a big price and I can see why up to a point as he's a progressive horse in a field where not many seem to have much of a chance. At 7 though I wonder if it is a year to early and I think he has at least 20lbs to find on form for all that he is progressive. Something usually at least places at a price, but to be honest I can't really pick one which might do so I am going to focus on the top end of the market and the proven class of Caid Du Berlais and Shantou Flyer plus the possible new star Staker Wallace.     Caid Du Berlais 1pt e/w (or 0.25pts e/w if already on) @ 12/1 with Bet365 @12/1 (14s available to 3 places with Betfair) Shantou Flyer 1.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365   Already advised Caid Du Berlais 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 Staker Wallace 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1    

Hopefully people have enjoyed my Road To The Cheltenham Foxhunter thread and it has helped keep everyone up to date with a race that always gets overlooked by the mainstream (and less mainstream) press despite the fact quite a lot of people actually are interested especially when you have well known horses like Minella Rocco and Don Poli involved. If you haven't seen and want to see my thoughts over the last 3 or so months then that thread is here https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/171460-road-to-the-cheltenham-foxhunters/   This year's preview clocks in at just under 4000 words and apparently will take just under 15 minutes to read. I can't guarantee I will find the winner, but hopefully it will help guide you to what you want to back in the race. I have yet to see a more in depth preview of the race so without further or do here are my thoughts on the 31 horses remaining in this year's Cheltenham Foxhunter.   Alcala - Rather unusually looks set to be Paul Nicholls' only runner in this race this year. Classy horse as his peak mark of 152 suggests and he won the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in 2017 off 142. He looked set to win on his first start since July 2018 when falling 2 out at Ludlow. He then made amends when winning the Walrus at Haydock getting the better of Wishing And Hoping despite making a bad error 2 out. After that he had to go to Fontwell to qualify for this and I don't think Angus Cheleda was overly hard on him at all given he knew he only had to finish 2nd to qualify. His trainer spoke of him having two hard races, but I find it hard to believe he had much of a race last time out. My concern about his chance is his stamina. At Ludlow they went no pace so it turned into a sprint, Haydock was over 2m6f and again they went a steady enough gallop as they did over 3m2f at Fontwell. The race he won over 3m2f in 2017 was a match. If he stays he is a player, but it is enough to put me off.   Arctic Skipper - Won his first two points this season, but was a well beaten 8th at Down Royal behind Dylrow on Boxing Day. He won a 3 runner point last month, but a week later pulled up and it is hard to see him being good enough.   Billaway - Willie Mullins has been talking his chances up in recent weeks and I can see why given he seems to be progressive and visually he ran out an impressive winner at Naas in January. That was his 2nd run of the season having run a nice race on his return to be 2nd at Down Royal on Boxing Day just going down a length to Dylrow. That Naas race was run at an absolute crawl though and it turned into a sprint which clearly suited him perfectly. To me that makes the form a bit suspect and I can see the 2nd reversing form with him for reasons I will state later. I certainly think he is one of the possible winners though given his profile offers more than most here, but I certainly don't think his price offers any value.   Bishops Road - Thrashed a very good horse in Risk A Fine at the hunter chase meeting here in May, but the 2nd didn't handle the track or the ground that day so I wouldn't take it at face value. Bizarrely he then ran in a point 3 days later when he fell. I now wonder if they were trying to qualify him for this and get it out of the way. Instead they had to do that this season and he did so when finishing 2nd in the first hunter chase of the season at Taunton. That was behind Wishing And Hoping and he was 2nd on his seasonal return in a point back in November. For me he has a bit too find although the trip shouldn't be a concern given he used to run over further.   Caid du Berlais - The first of a trio of runners for Rose Loxton and a horse I have already put up as a bet last month. As long as the ground continues to dry out I think he has a massive chance. He ran really well on soft ground when beaten less than 4L when 5th to Pacha Du Polder in 2018. He then went onto land the Punchestown Champion Hunters Chase by 21L. Last year he had a rushed prep as he picked up a minor injury and he only made his reappearance 12 days before the race. He then ran no sort of race and he was never travelling before pulling up. He then went back to Punchestown and won by an even bigger margin, 28L, than last year. This year he has had a much smoother prep as he made his seasonal return at Buckfastleigh in January and he beat Marcle Ridge by 5L which is really solid form. His trainer has mentioned she is not sure if he gets up the hill and that was the case in 2018, but if we have quicker ground on Friday I think he will. He is also 2 years older now which should help. His two Punchestown wins are two of the best pieces of form in the race and he has to go on any shortlist.   Chosen Dream - Landed the Stratford Foxhunter in 2018, but was flattered by that as the ground was over watered which meant the fancied horses disappointed. He pulled up in this last year and although I am told he is really well on form it is hard to make much of a case for him   Don Bersy - Won a couple of points last season, but shown better form this term for me as he beat Bishops Road in November, was 2nd to The Dellercheckout and then won by 20 at Thorpe Lodge. He then refused to race last month which is something he did in his last two starts under Rules. That has to be a big concern if you are wanting to back him, but his form doesn't look good enough anyway. His previous Rules form was all over 2m as well.   Don Poli - Rare that a point to point makes the front page of the Racing Post, but he did when winning at Alnwick back in December. I think it was a good idea to send the horse to Nick Pearce to get him qualified nice and early in a couple of points. He is already a duel Festival winner having won the Martin Pipe in 2014 and then the RSA Chase the following year. In 2016 he was 3rd in the Gold Cup and he was the Lexus winner that season as well. So he clearly has plenty of back class, but the problem is he had shown any form under Rules since February 2017. He appreciated the drop in class when winning those points, but he had to be niggled in both races to keep him interested and he was made to work quite hard to win the 2nd of them. Winning a couple of small field, weak points is one thing, winning a Foxhunter is a totally different ball game though. No doubt Nick had left a bit to work on, but I wasn't impressed with what I saw at Alnwick and I think in a big field in a race that is likely to be strongly run that he will just drop himself out and not fancy it. What I will say though is if you do want to back him because he hasn't been seen since January he has been forgotten about and you are probably getting a bigger price than if he had run recently or in a hunter chase.   Dunhallow Tornado - Ollie Pimlott has had a cracking start to his training career and this is a horse I really like. He looked impressive in two hunter chase wins at Catterick and Kelso 2 years ago and then found the ground too quick at Cheltenham's hunter chase night. Unfortunately he had to miss last season through injury and he returned last month  at Brocklesby when getting up close home to score. That was a pleasing come back run and if it did happen to be soft/heavy on Friday I would want to be backing him. The problem is the forecast is suggesting it isn't going to be that testing and as much as he will handle it my thinking is it brings more horses into play the quicker it gets. Connections will probably be wishing this race had been on Tuesday when it was very testing and although I think he can out run his price, the drying ground is enough to stop me backing him.   Dylrow - Looks an improved horse this season having beaten Mighty Stowaway on his first point start in November. He then beat Billaway at Down Royal on Boxing Day. He was then only 5th at Naas behind him the following month. That race turned into a sprint as mentioned so I do think the form is suspect, but given he was winning over 2m a year ago you would have thought that would have suited him. There is a case to say that he shouldn't really be 50/1 based on the Down Royal effort, but he wouldn't be for me.   Hazel Hill - Last year's impressive winner and currently favourite to retain his crown as Salsify, On The Fringe and Pacha Du Polder have done in recent years. There is no doubt he was the best hunter chaser around last season although there has to be a question mark about what sort of form he is currently in. After the Foxhunter win he came back for hunter chase night and just got the better of a great battle with Caryto Des Brosses. He was set to follow the same path to Cheltenham as he did last season, but Chaddesley Corbett was called off and that meant Warwick came too soon after his win at Sheriff Hutton. That told us little new, but it is the defeat to Minella Rocco at Wetherby which is the issue. He jumped badly to his right there something which he didn't do in this race year, but he did do here in May. My feeling is a small field might be to blame for that and with more horses around him he will jump straighter. I don't think he wants to make the running and that didn't help matters at Wetherby. The trainer said afterwards he was a bit sore so that was one excuse and I also think Derek O'Connor out rode Alex Edwards as well. I will talk more about that later, but I do think at the very least he will reverse form. The problem is he is hard to want to back at the current price because of his run last time and although I do think we will see a different horse here I would want a drift before backing him. The trainer is confident of a big showing and he could be a horse to get onside on the day because I think he will drift and then the doubt about what sort of form he is in will be factored into the price. If he is in the same form as last year then he clearly has a massive chance.   It Came To Pass - Beat Billaway in a hunter chase at Cork last April and then probably would have finished a distant 2nd to Caid Du Berlais at Punchestown, but he unseated at 2 out. 10 days later he did then beat On The Fringe at Killarney. He won a hunter chase at Cork in Novemeber which was basically his seasonal debut as he unseated at the first the week before. Was a 24L 7th to Dylrow and Down Royal and was pulled up last time out. On balance his form suggests he has a fair bit to find.   Law Of Gold - Was progressive last season and it ended in winning the John Corbet at Stratford in May. I didn't think it was the strongest renewal of the race especially as some fancied horses disappointed. Having said that Pink Eyed Pedro was 3rd and he has done well in handicaps since. He has had just the one start so far this season at Horseheath when running out an easy winner. That wasn't a strong race, but he could do no more win than as he did. The problem is I think he needs good ground and any soft in it is not going to help him. This is by far the best race he has ever been in as well and at 7 it could just be it comes at least a year too soon for him.   Marcle Ridge - Won a very weak race here on hunter chase night and then was 2nd at Warwick. At the time it didn't look a great effort, but given Killaro Boy nearly won a huge prize at Uttoxeter in the summer then he did well finish within 9L of him. As mentioned above he was 2nd to Caid Du Berlais on his only run of the season so far. That was a solid effort, but also his form suggests he has to find a bit to hit the frame here.   Minella Rocco - I suspect plenty of non hunter chase experts will be all over him on Friday and we will see plenty of at at his best he is the best horse in the race. I have already seen two TV presenters put him up as one of their best bets of the meeting which is crazy given they know little about hunter chases and you can be certain that neither will know anything about a horse like Law Of Gold for example. Maybe he will win, but all I keep hearing about his chances is that he was 2nd in a Gold Cup and he has won at the Festival before. The problem is that was 3 and 4 years ago now and since then he has basically been pretty poor and he was even struggling to complete. His two hunter chase wins this season were only his 2nd and 3rd wins over fences and I think he was fortunate to win those. At Warwick he benefited from Maxwell getting cramp on Bob And Co and then looked like getting beat by a horse could Kashmir Peak who has been beaten in a weak hunter chase and a weak point since. Derek O'Connor came over for the ride at Wetherby and he gave him a very clever ride to win the race and the chances are Hazel Hill ran below form. Derek kept him wide on the better ground and left it late to pounce. Reading between the lines of what Derek has written in his column in the Racing Post I don't think he fancies his chances at all and it was no surprise to me that he has said he will be riding Staker Wallace on the preview circuit. If the ground dried out a lot then I can see he will change to Minella Rocco as Staker Wallace needs cut in the ground. In my view he will get back into a bigger field at a strong pace and decide he doesn't fancy it again. I'd be tempted to place lay him on the day if he's a short enough price. Horses of his sort of profile rarely win the race nowadays and it will be a case of non hunter chase experts 1 hunter chase experts 0 if he does go and win (as was the case when Pacha Du Polder first won the race).   Update: Since writing the above Derek O'Connor has surprised everyone by going with Minella Rocco over Staker Wallace. For me this could mean 3 things. 1 he things the ground is going to dry out too much for Staker Wallace and/or Minella Rocco has been working the house down at Jonjo's and he has had to go with him and/or he things the Irish horses aren't as good as the British. Now Derek has chosen him I am not as negative on his chances as I was before, although I still personally can't back him.   Mr Mercurial - Been such a consistent hunter chaser over the years and his Scottish Foxhunter win was his 9th hunter chase success. I don't think he stays this far round a track like Cheltenham and he was 12th in this back in 2016 and was the same position at Aintree last year. Will run his race, but will be surprised if he is good enough to get close.   Rewritetherules - Sprung onto the hunter chase scene in May last year when winning at Down Royal and Tipperary in the space of 3 days. His next run was in a handicap where he was only 6th off 116. This season he beat a useful enough field first up and then struggled to win a weak race last month. On the face of it that was a very poor effort, but the trainer said he had a stone bruise the week before and the owners were keen to run as it was their local meeting. His jockey said he got there too soon and he idled as well. So we should be expecting more here and he is progressive, but he is only 6 and you have to be very good to win this race as young as that. I am happy to pass him over.   Sausalito Sunrise - Beat Ravished at Hexham last April in a hunter chase when with his former connections, but then was very disappointing at Worcester. Won the Lord Ashton Of Hyde's Cup at Cocklebarrow over 3m6f on his only start for his new connections. That was a decent enough effort, but nowhere near the level for this.   Shantou Flyer - Ran a huge race to be 2nd in the race last year especially as he had to run twice in 10 days to qualify for the race after being 5th at Warwick behind Hazel Hill on his first hunter chase start. He narrowed that gap to 4L in this contest. He is now at former Paul Nicholls worker Rose Loxton's yard and he made a winning return at Larkhill in a race which has actually worked out very well. Given he was below par on his seasonal return last season I fully expect him to carry on improving and he was totally dominate at Fakenham where he had Tully Touch 25L back in 3rd and giving him 11lbs whereas Law Of Gold only beat him 12L off level weights. It was good to see Maxwell choosing to run him over Bob And Co as I think that is the right decision. The owner/rider has even said he feels a better horse this time around. He is only 10 as well and I think he has a massive chance.   Southfield Theatre - Gave Lily Bradstock a lovely spin round in the race last year when 9th although that was 48L behind Hazel Hill. Did well to win the 4m race on hunter chase night here and has won two of his three points this season. On the other he was beaten by Virak which was still a decent effort. Hard to see how he can really improve on last year's 9th though.   Staker Wallace - Has been a hard horse to keep sound as since making his debut in November 2015 he has only run 6 times. In 2017 on just his 4th start and after wining a maiden point he ran a really credible 3rd to Foxrock at Leopardstown. He then had 3 years off before running a huge race to finish an 8L 2nd at Naas. Given the lay off you can upgrade the performance and he followed that up with beating a solid yardstick in a point to make sure he qualified for this. Derek has been talking him up on the preview circuit and it is clear he holds him in high regard. At this stage to me he is the main Irish hope in the race. He does need soft ground so he wouldn't want to dry out and if it did I can see Derek not riding or him even not running in the race. If Derek's name is next to his on Wednesday morning then I think he will end up going off favourite for the race. I have already put him up for this ante-post.   Update: As mentioned above Minella Rocco is Derek's ride although Jamie Codd has been booked so there is still a top jockey booked, but I am surprised Derek has changed his mind.   Stella Notion - Was a useful handicapper for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and managed to win at Kelso off 137 in May 2018 for Tom George. He then went to Tom Frost's where he won two points at Larkhil before being beaten 38L by Monsieur Gibraltar at Southwell. According to the Racing Post he is now on his 3rd trainer since then having run once for Emma Clark when he was pulled up behind Hazel Hill at Sheriff Hutton in January. Now Philip Kirby trains him and I have been told that James King takes the ride which is a good jockey booking. Wouldn't be an obvious one to back, but the trainer might bring about some improvement.   Top Wood - I can see Top Wood being popular e/w given his superb record in the race. He was just denied by Pacha Du Polder and Harriett Tucker two years ago and then he was 3rd to Hazel Hill last year. After that he then went and won at Aintree when he wanted it more than Burning Ambition in 2nd. He ran really well on his seasonal return when 2nd in a handicap at Ascot off 139 and he was over 15L in front of Minella Rocco. Wasn't quite as good at Haydock next time, but the ground was very testing that day. I couldn't really put anyone off wanting to back him e/w, but he is now 13 and surely he has had his best chance of actually winning the race.   Kalabaloo - The only mare in the race and she was an impressive winner of the mares race on hunter chase night. Was then sent off a short price favourite for the John Corbet Cup at Stratford and was a well beaten 4th behind Law Of Gold. Has won a couple of Ladies Opens at Alnwick this season but the fact she was 1/2 and 2/5 tells you all about the quality of the opposition. My feeling is she is unlikely to be good enough, but I do think she is better than she showed at Stratford and can run a nice race.   Summary - With no more rain forecast it looks like the ground is only going to get drier come race time and I would say we will be looking at good to soft all round. Ideally Staker Wallace would want it softer, but it should be OK still and even though Derek has decided not to ride, Jamie Codd has an incredible strike rate at the Festival so he is a great jockey to have still. I have to say though he is the right sort of price so I am not sure there is much value left in the price. I have no idea who will be favourite now. I would imagine Minella Rocco will be popular among the non hunter chase/pointing followers and I see Paul Kealy has tipped him up in The Weekender. Even though Derek is on him I would still be a bit surprised if he did go and win, but as I mention above I am not so strongly against him as I was. Billaway has been spoken highly by his trainer so he could be popular in the market although given how much speed he showed last time I just wonder if he wants a stamina test and I think Staker Wallace can reverse the form. Hazel Hill is touching 6/1 now and I wonder if he might drift a bit more. I might add a small cover bet on Friday if he does drift a bit more because his trainer remains confident and given he has swerved the race with Wishing And Hoping he clearly thinks he still has a massive chance despite the loss last time. That is clearly a concern, but as mentioned above there is reason to believe that he could easily bounce back here.   Caid Du Berlais is the other horse I put up and he is back out to 14/1 in a couple of places now. I am topping up to make it a full point on him now especially with the extra place available. The ground should have dried up for him and I fully expect him to run more like his 2018 showing than his 2019 one. With his class I find it pretty hard to see him out of the first 5 at the very least and hopefully he can finish strongly up the hill.    The main bet I am going to have though is Shantou Flyer to give David Maxwell his first win in the race. I think he has chosen the right horse over Bob And Co and he ran a really good race to finish 2nd in the race last year. He won a point which has worked out very well on his seasonal reappearance and then bolted up at Fakenham after which Maxwell said he was better than last season. If he is right then that clearly makes him a leading candidate and I think he is a big price at 9/1.   Top Wood will have his fans, but I think at 13 his best chance of actually winning has gone. I know a few shrewd pointing followers are keen on Law Of Gold at a big price and I can see why up to a point as he's a progressive horse in a field where not many seem to have much of a chance. At 7 though I wonder if it is a year to early and I think he has at least 20lbs to find on form for all that he is progressive. Something usually at least places at a price, but to be honest I can't really pick one which might do so I am going to focus on the top end of the market and the proven class of Caid Du Berlais and Shantou Flyer plus the possible new star Staker Wallace.     Caid Du Berlais 1pt e/w (or 0.25pts e/w if already on) @ 12/1 with Bet365 @12/1 (14s available to 3 places with Betfair) Shantou Flyer 1.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365   Already advised Caid Du Berlais 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 Staker Wallace 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1    

Hopefully people have enjoyed my Road To The Cheltenham Foxhunter thread and it has helped keep everyone up to date with a race that always gets overlooked by the mainstream (and less mainstream) press despite the fact quite a lot of people actually are interested especially when you have well known horses like Minella Rocco and Don Poli involved. If you haven't seen and want to see my thoughts over the last 3 or so months then that thread is here https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/171460-road-to-the-cheltenham-foxhunters/   This year's preview clocks in at just under 4000 words and apparently will take just under 15 minutes to read. I can't guarantee I will find the winner, but hopefully it will help guide you to what you want to back in the race. I have yet to see a more in depth preview of the race so without further or do here are my thoughts on the 31 horses remaining in this year's Cheltenham Foxhunter.   Alcala - Rather unusually looks set to be Paul Nicholls' only runner in this race this year. Classy horse as his peak mark of 152 suggests and he won the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in 2017 off 142. He looked set to win on his first start since July 2018 when falling 2 out at Ludlow. He then made amends when winning the Walrus at Haydock getting the better of Wishing And Hoping despite making a bad error 2 out. After that he had to go to Fontwell to qualify for this and I don't think Angus Cheleda was overly hard on him at all given he knew he only had to finish 2nd to qualify. His trainer spoke of him having two hard races, but I find it hard to believe he had much of a race last time out. My concern about his chance is his stamina. At Ludlow they went no pace so it turned into a sprint, Haydock was over 2m6f and again they went a steady enough gallop as they did over 3m2f at Fontwell. The race he won over 3m2f in 2017 was a match. If he stays he is a player, but it is enough to put me off.   Arctic Skipper - Won his first two points this season, but was a well beaten 8th at Down Royal behind Dylrow on Boxing Day. He won a 3 runner point last month, but a week later pulled up and it is hard to see him being good enough.   Billaway - Willie Mullins has been talking his chances up in recent weeks and I can see why given he seems to be progressive and visually he ran out an impressive winner at Naas in January. That was his 2nd run of the season having run a nice race on his return to be 2nd at Down Royal on Boxing Day just going down a length to Dylrow. That Naas race was run at an absolute crawl though and it turned into a sprint which clearly suited him perfectly. To me that makes the form a bit suspect and I can see the 2nd reversing form with him for reasons I will state later. I certainly think he is one of the possible winners though given his profile offers more than most here, but I certainly don't think his price offers any value.   Bishops Road - Thrashed a very good horse in Risk A Fine at the hunter chase meeting here in May, but the 2nd didn't handle the track or the ground that day so I wouldn't take it at face value. Bizarrely he then ran in a point 3 days later when he fell. I now wonder if they were trying to qualify him for this and get it out of the way. Instead they had to do that this season and he did so when finishing 2nd in the first hunter chase of the season at Taunton. That was behind Wishing And Hoping and he was 2nd on his seasonal return in a point back in November. For me he has a bit too find although the trip shouldn't be a concern given he used to run over further.   Caid du Berlais - The first of a trio of runners for Rose Loxton and a horse I have already put up as a bet last month. As long as the ground continues to dry out I think he has a massive chance. He ran really well on soft ground when beaten less than 4L when 5th to Pacha Du Polder in 2018. He then went onto land the Punchestown Champion Hunters Chase by 21L. Last year he had a rushed prep as he picked up a minor injury and he only made his reappearance 12 days before the race. He then ran no sort of race and he was never travelling before pulling up. He then went back to Punchestown and won by an even bigger margin, 28L, than last year. This year he has had a much smoother prep as he made his seasonal return at Buckfastleigh in January and he beat Marcle Ridge by 5L which is really solid form. His trainer has mentioned she is not sure if he gets up the hill and that was the case in 2018, but if we have quicker ground on Friday I think he will. He is also 2 years older now which should help. His two Punchestown wins are two of the best pieces of form in the race and he has to go on any shortlist.   Chosen Dream - Landed the Stratford Foxhunter in 2018, but was flattered by that as the ground was over watered which meant the fancied horses disappointed. He pulled up in this last year and although I am told he is really well on form it is hard to make much of a case for him   Don Bersy - Won a couple of points last season, but shown better form this term for me as he beat Bishops Road in November, was 2nd to The Dellercheckout and then won by 20 at Thorpe Lodge. He then refused to race last month which is something he did in his last two starts under Rules. That has to be a big concern if you are wanting to back him, but his form doesn't look good enough anyway. His previous Rules form was all over 2m as well.   Don Poli - Rare that a point to point makes the front page of the Racing Post, but he did when winning at Alnwick back in December. I think it was a good idea to send the horse to Nick Pearce to get him qualified nice and early in a couple of points. He is already a duel Festival winner having won the Martin Pipe in 2014 and then the RSA Chase the following year. In 2016 he was 3rd in the Gold Cup and he was the Lexus winner that season as well. So he clearly has plenty of back class, but the problem is he had shown any form under Rules since February 2017. He appreciated the drop in class when winning those points, but he had to be niggled in both races to keep him interested and he was made to work quite hard to win the 2nd of them. Winning a couple of small field, weak points is one thing, winning a Foxhunter is a totally different ball game though. No doubt Nick had left a bit to work on, but I wasn't impressed with what I saw at Alnwick and I think in a big field in a race that is likely to be strongly run that he will just drop himself out and not fancy it. What I will say though is if you do want to back him because he hasn't been seen since January he has been forgotten about and you are probably getting a bigger price than if he had run recently or in a hunter chase.   Dunhallow Tornado - Ollie Pimlott has had a cracking start to his training career and this is a horse I really like. He looked impressive in two hunter chase wins at Catterick and Kelso 2 years ago and then found the ground too quick at Cheltenham's hunter chase night. Unfortunately he had to miss last season through injury and he returned last month  at Brocklesby when getting up close home to score. That was a pleasing come back run and if it did happen to be soft/heavy on Friday I would want to be backing him. The problem is the forecast is suggesting it isn't going to be that testing and as much as he will handle it my thinking is it brings more horses into play the quicker it gets. Connections will probably be wishing this race had been on Tuesday when it was very testing and although I think he can out run his price, the drying ground is enough to stop me backing him.   Dylrow - Looks an improved horse this season having beaten Mighty Stowaway on his first point start in November. He then beat Billaway at Down Royal on Boxing Day. He was then only 5th at Naas behind him the following month. That race turned into a sprint as mentioned so I do think the form is suspect, but given he was winning over 2m a year ago you would have thought that would have suited him. There is a case to say that he shouldn't really be 50/1 based on the Down Royal effort, but he wouldn't be for me.   Hazel Hill - Last year's impressive winner and currently favourite to retain his crown as Salsify, On The Fringe and Pacha Du Polder have done in recent years. There is no doubt he was the best hunter chaser around last season although there has to be a question mark about what sort of form he is currently in. After the Foxhunter win he came back for hunter chase night and just got the better of a great battle with Caryto Des Brosses. He was set to follow the same path to Cheltenham as he did last season, but Chaddesley Corbett was called off and that meant Warwick came too soon after his win at Sheriff Hutton. That told us little new, but it is the defeat to Minella Rocco at Wetherby which is the issue. He jumped badly to his right there something which he didn't do in this race year, but he did do here in May. My feeling is a small field might be to blame for that and with more horses around him he will jump straighter. I don't think he wants to make the running and that didn't help matters at Wetherby. The trainer said afterwards he was a bit sore so that was one excuse and I also think Derek O'Connor out rode Alex Edwards as well. I will talk more about that later, but I do think at the very least he will reverse form. The problem is he is hard to want to back at the current price because of his run last time and although I do think we will see a different horse here I would want a drift before backing him. The trainer is confident of a big showing and he could be a horse to get onside on the day because I think he will drift and then the doubt about what sort of form he is in will be factored into the price. If he is in the same form as last year then he clearly has a massive chance.   It Came To Pass - Beat Billaway in a hunter chase at Cork last April and then probably would have finished a distant 2nd to Caid Du Berlais at Punchestown, but he unseated at 2 out. 10 days later he did then beat On The Fringe at Killarney. He won a hunter chase at Cork in Novemeber which was basically his seasonal debut as he unseated at the first the week before. Was a 24L 7th to Dylrow and Down Royal and was pulled up last time out. On balance his form suggests he has a fair bit to find.   Law Of Gold - Was progressive last season and it ended in winning the John Corbet at Stratford in May. I didn't think it was the strongest renewal of the race especially as some fancied horses disappointed. Having said that Pink Eyed Pedro was 3rd and he has done well in handicaps since. He has had just the one start so far this season at Horseheath when running out an easy winner. That wasn't a strong race, but he could do no more win than as he did. The problem is I think he needs good ground and any soft in it is not going to help him. This is by far the best race he has ever been in as well and at 7 it could just be it comes at least a year too soon for him.   Marcle Ridge - Won a very weak race here on hunter chase night and then was 2nd at Warwick. At the time it didn't look a great effort, but given Killaro Boy nearly won a huge prize at Uttoxeter in the summer then he did well finish within 9L of him. As mentioned above he was 2nd to Caid Du Berlais on his only run of the season so far. That was a solid effort, but also his form suggests he has to find a bit to hit the frame here.   Minella Rocco - I suspect plenty of non hunter chase experts will be all over him on Friday and we will see plenty of at at his best he is the best horse in the race. I have already seen two TV presenters put him up as one of their best bets of the meeting which is crazy given they know little about hunter chases and you can be certain that neither will know anything about a horse like Law Of Gold for example. Maybe he will win, but all I keep hearing about his chances is that he was 2nd in a Gold Cup and he has won at the Festival before. The problem is that was 3 and 4 years ago now and since then he has basically been pretty poor and he was even struggling to complete. His two hunter chase wins this season were only his 2nd and 3rd wins over fences and I think he was fortunate to win those. At Warwick he benefited from Maxwell getting cramp on Bob And Co and then looked like getting beat by a horse could Kashmir Peak who has been beaten in a weak hunter chase and a weak point since. Derek O'Connor came over for the ride at Wetherby and he gave him a very clever ride to win the race and the chances are Hazel Hill ran below form. Derek kept him wide on the better ground and left it late to pounce. Reading between the lines of what Derek has written in his column in the Racing Post I don't think he fancies his chances at all and it was no surprise to me that he has said he will be riding Staker Wallace on the preview circuit. If the ground dried out a lot then I can see he will change to Minella Rocco as Staker Wallace needs cut in the ground. In my view he will get back into a bigger field at a strong pace and decide he doesn't fancy it again. I'd be tempted to place lay him on the day if he's a short enough price. Horses of his sort of profile rarely win the race nowadays and it will be a case of non hunter chase experts 1 hunter chase experts 0 if he does go and win (as was the case when Pacha Du Polder first won the race).   Update: Since writing the above Derek O'Connor has surprised everyone by going with Minella Rocco over Staker Wallace. For me this could mean 3 things. 1 he things the ground is going to dry out too much for Staker Wallace and/or Minella Rocco has been working the house down at Jonjo's and he has had to go with him and/or he things the Irish horses aren't as good as the British. Now Derek has chosen him I am not as negative on his chances as I was before, although I still personally can't back him.   Mr Mercurial - Been such a consistent hunter chaser over the years and his Scottish Foxhunter win was his 9th hunter chase success. I don't think he stays this far round a track like Cheltenham and he was 12th in this back in 2016 and was the same position at Aintree last year. Will run his race, but will be surprised if he is good enough to get close.   Rewritetherules - Sprung onto the hunter chase scene in May last year when winning at Down Royal and Tipperary in the space of 3 days. His next run was in a handicap where he was only 6th off 116. This season he beat a useful enough field first up and then struggled to win a weak race last month. On the face of it that was a very poor effort, but the trainer said he had a stone bruise the week before and the owners were keen to run as it was their local meeting. His jockey said he got there too soon and he idled as well. So we should be expecting more here and he is progressive, but he is only 6 and you have to be very good to win this race as young as that. I am happy to pass him over.   Sausalito Sunrise - Beat Ravished at Hexham last April in a hunter chase when with his former connections, but then was very disappointing at Worcester. Won the Lord Ashton Of Hyde's Cup at Cocklebarrow over 3m6f on his only start for his new connections. That was a decent enough effort, but nowhere near the level for this.   Shantou Flyer - Ran a huge race to be 2nd in the race last year especially as he had to run twice in 10 days to qualify for the race after being 5th at Warwick behind Hazel Hill on his first hunter chase start. He narrowed that gap to 4L in this contest. He is now at former Paul Nicholls worker Rose Loxton's yard and he made a winning return at Larkhill in a race which has actually worked out very well. Given he was below par on his seasonal return last season I fully expect him to carry on improving and he was totally dominate at Fakenham where he had Tully Touch 25L back in 3rd and giving him 11lbs whereas Law Of Gold only beat him 12L off level weights. It was good to see Maxwell choosing to run him over Bob And Co as I think that is the right decision. The owner/rider has even said he feels a better horse this time around. He is only 10 as well and I think he has a massive chance.   Southfield Theatre - Gave Lily Bradstock a lovely spin round in the race last year when 9th although that was 48L behind Hazel Hill. Did well to win the 4m race on hunter chase night here and has won two of his three points this season. On the other he was beaten by Virak which was still a decent effort. Hard to see how he can really improve on last year's 9th though.   Staker Wallace - Has been a hard horse to keep sound as since making his debut in November 2015 he has only run 6 times. In 2017 on just his 4th start and after wining a maiden point he ran a really credible 3rd to Foxrock at Leopardstown. He then had 3 years off before running a huge race to finish an 8L 2nd at Naas. Given the lay off you can upgrade the performance and he followed that up with beating a solid yardstick in a point to make sure he qualified for this. Derek has been talking him up on the preview circuit and it is clear he holds him in high regard. At this stage to me he is the main Irish hope in the race. He does need soft ground so he wouldn't want to dry out and if it did I can see Derek not riding or him even not running in the race. If Derek's name is next to his on Wednesday morning then I think he will end up going off favourite for the race. I have already put him up for this ante-post.   Update: As mentioned above Minella Rocco is Derek's ride although Jamie Codd has been booked so there is still a top jockey booked, but I am surprised Derek has changed his mind.   Stella Notion - Was a useful handicapper for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and managed to win at Kelso off 137 in May 2018 for Tom George. He then went to Tom Frost's where he won two points at Larkhil before being beaten 38L by Monsieur Gibraltar at Southwell. According to the Racing Post he is now on his 3rd trainer since then having run once for Emma Clark when he was pulled up behind Hazel Hill at Sheriff Hutton in January. Now Philip Kirby trains him and I have been told that James King takes the ride which is a good jockey booking. Wouldn't be an obvious one to back, but the trainer might bring about some improvement.   Top Wood - I can see Top Wood being popular e/w given his superb record in the race. He was just denied by Pacha Du Polder and Harriett Tucker two years ago and then he was 3rd to Hazel Hill last year. After that he then went and won at Aintree when he wanted it more than Burning Ambition in 2nd. He ran really well on his seasonal return when 2nd in a handicap at Ascot off 139 and he was over 15L in front of Minella Rocco. Wasn't quite as good at Haydock next time, but the ground was very testing that day. I couldn't really put anyone off wanting to back him e/w, but he is now 13 and surely he has had his best chance of actually winning the race.   Kalabaloo - The only mare in the race and she was an impressive winner of the mares race on hunter chase night. Was then sent off a short price favourite for the John Corbet Cup at Stratford and was a well beaten 4th behind Law Of Gold. Has won a couple of Ladies Opens at Alnwick this season but the fact she was 1/2 and 2/5 tells you all about the quality of the opposition. My feeling is she is unlikely to be good enough, but I do think she is better than she showed at Stratford and can run a nice race.   Summary - With no more rain forecast it looks like the ground is only going to get drier come race time and I would say we will be looking at good to soft all round. Ideally Staker Wallace would want it softer, but it should be OK still and even though Derek has decided not to ride, Jamie Codd has an incredible strike rate at the Festival so he is a great jockey to have still. I have to say though he is the right sort of price so I am not sure there is much value left in the price. I have no idea who will be favourite now. I would imagine Minella Rocco will be popular among the non hunter chase/pointing followers and I see Paul Kealy has tipped him up in The Weekender. Even though Derek is on him I would still be a bit surprised if he did go and win, but as I mention above I am not so strongly against him as I was. Billaway has been spoken highly by his trainer so he could be popular in the market although given how much speed he showed last time I just wonder if he wants a stamina test and I think Staker Wallace can reverse the form. Hazel Hill is touching 6/1 now and I wonder if he might drift a bit more. I might add a small cover bet on Friday if he does drift a bit more because his trainer remains confident and given he has swerved the race with Wishing And Hoping he clearly thinks he still has a massive chance despite the loss last time. That is clearly a concern, but as mentioned above there is reason to believe that he could easily bounce back here.   Caid Du Berlais is the other horse I put up and he is back out to 14/1 in a couple of places now. I am topping up to make it a full point on him now especially with the extra place available. The ground should have dried up for him and I fully expect him to run more like his 2018 showing than his 2019 one. With his class I find it pretty hard to see him out of the first 5 at the very least and hopefully he can finish strongly up the hill.    The main bet I am going to have though is Shantou Flyer to give David Maxwell his first win in the race. I think he has chosen the right horse over Bob And Co and he ran a really good race to finish 2nd in the race last year. He won a point which has worked out very well on his seasonal reappearance and then bolted up at Fakenham after which Maxwell said he was better than last season. If he is right then that clearly makes him a leading candidate and I think he is a big price at 9/1.   Top Wood will have his fans, but I think at 13 his best chance of actually winning has gone. I know a few shrewd pointing followers are keen on Law Of Gold at a big price and I can see why up to a point as he's a progressive horse in a field where not many seem to have much of a chance. At 7 though I wonder if it is a year to early and I think he has at least 20lbs to find on form for all that he is progressive. Something usually at least places at a price, but to be honest I can't really pick one which might do so I am going to focus on the top end of the market and the proven class of Caid Du Berlais and Shantou Flyer plus the possible new star Staker Wallace.     Caid Du Berlais 1pt e/w (or 0.25pts e/w if already on) @ 12/1 with Bet365 @12/1 (14s available to 3 places with Betfair) Shantou Flyer 1.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365   Already advised Caid Du Berlais 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 Staker Wallace 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1    

Time to make a 2nd bet. Derek O'Connor has said at a Cheltenham preview night that he expects to be riding Staker Wallace and not Minella Rocco. That is the right move for me and he surely can't give Staker Wallace as bad a ride as he gave Stand Up And Fight last year. I am a big fan of Derek and that was a rare poor ride from him. As for the horse he ran a very good race at Naas after a long time off. As stated at the time I am dubious of the form of that race anyway because of the fact it turned into a sprint and I think he can reverse form with the winner. He beat a good yardstick to qualify and although the Irish don't look a strong set of hunter chasers again this year, for me he is their number 1 contender. To be fair the British hopes don't look to have too much strength in depth to them anyway. With Derek set to ride he is surely going to go off single figures on the day and could be a shorter price than Minella Rocco.
Staker Wallace 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Betfred or 10/1 if you want it with a NRMB bookie.
Also David Maxwell has stated in tomorrow's Racing Post that he hasn't actually decided who to ride in the race yet, but will only run one of his two as he doesn't want to be on the wrong one.

It’s all about making a profit. There is nothing wrong with backing 2, 3 or sometimes 4 in a race if the prices allow. I was reasonably confident one of them would win but didn’t favour one over the other which is why I had the same amount on both. Obviously completely up to the individual on what they do but I certainly wouldn’t be afraid of backing more than one in a race.

Great to get back to back winners Clondaw Westie running out a nice winner under a good front ride from James King. As I mentioned in the preview he looked to have his ideal conditions and we knew he was match fit and those two things combined have won the day for me. He did jump to his right at times and it got worse late on, but it didn't make a difference. I'd be wary of him following up as I suspect the form isn't going to be the strongest, but if he gets his conditions again and finds a suitable race he could add to this. Even so he has won just over £4k and it would have been hard to see him winning a handicap worth that sort of money or more so it was a good piece of placing from his trainer. It was a 1-2 for the Hills with Sir Mangan finishing 2nd. He ran well given he had been off for a while and you would hope he can build on that. 
More Buck's looked the winner for me turning for home as he travelled into the race very strongly, but he couldn't pick up in the ground and if Aintree is the plan then he wasn't knocked about once he couldn't win. The trainer won the Aintree Foxhunters with Dineur and he finished 2nd in this in one of his qualifying runs before his first run in the race when he was 2nd to On The Fringe. It wouldn't surprise me if he appeared in the entries for Fakenham on Friday tomorrow.
Aqua Dude ran well enough, but got tired late on. Given it was nearly 3 months from his previous run there is every chance he needed this and I wouldn't be giving up on him just yet. All of them shortened up at some stage, but Bob Ford was the strangest move for me and he didn't jump great. He clearly needs further as well. Tinkers Hill Tommy unseated at the 10th and unless it was factored into the price I think I would find it hard to back him if Anna rides him again based on what I saw today.
If Stratford goes ahead the next race is there on Monday. Tomorrow the 6 day decs come out for Cheltenham.

Great call Darran, well done mate

With Leicester off we are down to just the Welsh Foxhunter at Ffos Las and it carries decent enough prize money for the grade. It is a bit of odd race as well as none of them have completed in a hunter chase or point to point this season as those who have run in one have pulled up.
More Buck's has been put in as favourite and he won the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in 2018 strangely enough beating one of today's rivals Too Many Diamonds in the process. His last win came 14 months ago at Ludlow off 133 and he's basically struggled in 10 runs since. So we don't know what sort of form he is in and after that win his jockey James Bowen got off and said he really needs that type of good ground. My guess is they want to try and qualify him for Aintree so a run in the first 3 here would rack up one of the runs needed and I just wonder if he might be ridden with that in mind, especially on this testing ground.
Tinker Hill Tommy has got some very good hunter chase and pointing form to his name and I think a mark of 112 under estimates him. The last time we saw him was when he walked away with the Dunraven Bowl in 2018. That was a superb performance and it is also worth considering he has finished a close 2nd in a John Corbet as well. Three things concern me here. First of all the ground has to be a worry as he got very tired on heavy ground at Exeter when 3rd to Salubrious. I felt at the time though he paid for trying to live with the classy winner though which didn't help. The Chepstow win was on soft and it was soft on his seasonal return that season when a close 2nd to Battle Dust which was a good effort. You have to worry about Ffos Las heavy though especially with nearly two years off, which is my second worry. He has run well fresh, but the combination of a long lay off on bad ground could be tough for him. The 3rd worry is the jockey. Anna has never ridden under rules before and she has only had just over 30 rides in points for 3 wins. All that combined is enough to put me off backing him although I do like the horse and it wouldn't surprise me if he did end up being good enough.
Aqua Dude has clearly had his issues over the years but he has proven to be a decent horse. Prior to his point run here in December his last run was when pulling up in the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham in 2017. He pulled up here as well, but there was enough in it for me to think he has a chance here. It was testing ground and he tried to go with Wishing And Hoping until his stamina ran out. He might also have had a little issue as well given he has been off since. This looks more his trip and he should strip fitter here so he looks a big player to me.
I'm not sure if Alan and Lawney Hill have ever had a runner against each other before but they do here as Alan has Sir Mangan and Lawney has Clondaw Westie. Sir Mangan had some decent form for Dan Skelton, but he looked to be losing his form when last seen a year ago and he doesn't look like he wants testing ground either. Clondaw Westie makes more appeal. He was beaten a long way in 2nd at Leicester last time, but he was well in front of the 3rd and the winner looked well handicapped. It is interesting they are running him in a hunter chase given he now can't run in a handicap until June. The ground won't be an issue and the trip will be fine. Others have had higher rating than him in this race, but he could take advantage of the questions marks over some of the other fancied horses.
Bob Ford is the only other one in with a chance according to the betting, but his form has all been over further. Granted the ground won't be an issue, but he surely needs a longer trip. Also he doesn't seem to have been in quite the same form he showed when winning at Uttoxeter on his seasonal debut in November of late.
I am happy to take two against the field here in Aqua Dude and Clondaw Westie. In my view they are the two who will be suited by the nature of this race the most. Aqua Dude has the better back class and there was enough in his return run for me to think he still has a fair bit of ability, whilst Clondaw Westie does well in heavy ground and ran well enough last time. More Bucks doesn't seem to want this ground and as much as I like Tinkers Hill Tommy there are too many question marks over him to want to back him for this although I do think he has the ability to win.
Aqua Dude 1pt @ 4/1 with William Hill, Betfair and Paddy Power
Clondaw Westie 1pt @ 5/1 with Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy Power

With Leicester off we are down to just the Welsh Foxhunter at Ffos Las and it carries decent enough prize money for the grade. It is a bit of odd race as well as none of them have completed in a hunter chase or point to point this season as those who have run in one have pulled up.
More Buck's has been put in as favourite and he won the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in 2018 strangely enough beating one of today's rivals Too Many Diamonds in the process. His last win came 14 months ago at Ludlow off 133 and he's basically struggled in 10 runs since. So we don't know what sort of form he is in and after that win his jockey James Bowen got off and said he really needs that type of good ground. My guess is they want to try and qualify him for Aintree so a run in the first 3 here would rack up one of the runs needed and I just wonder if he might be ridden with that in mind, especially on this testing ground.
Tinker Hill Tommy has got some very good hunter chase and pointing form to his name and I think a mark of 112 under estimates him. The last time we saw him was when he walked away with the Dunraven Bowl in 2018. That was a superb performance and it is also worth considering he has finished a close 2nd in a John Corbet as well. Three things concern me here. First of all the ground has to be a worry as he got very tired on heavy ground at Exeter when 3rd to Salubrious. I felt at the time though he paid for trying to live with the classy winner though which didn't help. The Chepstow win was on soft and it was soft on his seasonal return that season when a close 2nd to Battle Dust which was a good effort. You have to worry about Ffos Las heavy though especially with nearly two years off, which is my second worry. He has run well fresh, but the combination of a long lay off on bad ground could be tough for him. The 3rd worry is the jockey. Anna has never ridden under rules before and she has only had just over 30 rides in points for 3 wins. All that combined is enough to put me off backing him although I do like the horse and it wouldn't surprise me if he did end up being good enough.
Aqua Dude has clearly had his issues over the years but he has proven to be a decent horse. Prior to his point run here in December his last run was when pulling up in the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham in 2017. He pulled up here as well, but there was enough in it for me to think he has a chance here. It was testing ground and he tried to go with Wishing And Hoping until his stamina ran out. He might also have had a little issue as well given he has been off since. This looks more his trip and he should strip fitter here so he looks a big player to me.
I'm not sure if Alan and Lawney Hill have ever had a runner against each other before but they do here as Alan has Sir Mangan and Lawney has Clondaw Westie. Sir Mangan had some decent form for Dan Skelton, but he looked to be losing his form when last seen a year ago and he doesn't look like he wants testing ground either. Clondaw Westie makes more appeal. He was beaten a long way in 2nd at Leicester last time, but he was well in front of the 3rd and the winner looked well handicapped. It is interesting they are running him in a hunter chase given he now can't run in a handicap until June. The ground won't be an issue and the trip will be fine. Others have had higher rating than him in this race, but he could take advantage of the questions marks over some of the other fancied horses.
Bob Ford is the only other one in with a chance according to the betting, but his form has all been over further. Granted the ground won't be an issue, but he surely needs a longer trip. Also he doesn't seem to have been in quite the same form he showed when winning at Uttoxeter on his seasonal debut in November of late.
I am happy to take two against the field here in Aqua Dude and Clondaw Westie. In my view they are the two who will be suited by the nature of this race the most. Aqua Dude has the better back class and there was enough in his return run for me to think he still has a fair bit of ability, whilst Clondaw Westie does well in heavy ground and ran well enough last time. More Bucks doesn't seem to want this ground and as much as I like Tinkers Hill Tommy there are too many question marks over him to want to back him for this although I do think he has the ability to win.
Aqua Dude 1pt @ 4/1 with William Hill, Betfair and Paddy Power
Clondaw Westie 1pt @ 5/1 with Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy Power

I'm not sure I have seen a more bizarre betting market than the one we saw here. If you weren't following the moves then Wishing And Hoping drifted from 4/11 to 8/11 (and went bigger on track and on Betfair), whilst Waterloo Warrior was backed from 3/1 into 5/4. This move happened very quickly as well especially in the later stages of it. Then the fav went back into 1/2 as the 2nd fav drifted back out. I could barely believe my eyes as I was watching the betting and you had to wonder if it was too good to be true. It seems that a very large staking punter was able to manipulate the market so that they started the move on Waterloo Warrior to then force the drift on Wishing And Hoping before going large on Wishing And Hoping. It seems plausible to me given how it happened although we will never know for certain. Anyway the winner did it every bit as easy as was expected and put in a cracking round of jumping bar the 2nd last. Aintree must come on the radar now, although I think Stratford would be an even better target and maybe they might give him a little break instead before going there. If he does go to Aintree though he would be on the shortlist.
When I put the preview up Absainte was around 7/1, but thanks in part to a gamble on Craggaknock and to a massive drift she went off at 18/1. That of course enhanced our forecast play and it paid £13.70 on the Tote and £10.89 on the CSF. As I mentioned in the preview connections must have been rather annoyed that Wishing And Hoping turned up as she would have bolted up without him. Hopefully she will find a winnable race before the season is out as she ran well here. Light Flicker didn't do too badly either on his first run for a while. Waterloo Warrior didn't take to it at all today although bizarrely the Racing Post analysis seemed to blame the ground even though he was 2nd in heavy ground at Leicester. He jumped poorly and was beaten from a long way out. To me it was too bad to be true.
Hopefully now I have a big price winner under my belt we can kick on with the rest of the season. Ffos Las and Leicester are both due to have races on Friday as long as the weather plays ball.

This Catterick race was always one of the weakest hunter chases of the season, but the quality has picked up in recent years and this year it has attracted a horse who some thought could have won this year's Foxhunter. I put on Twitter when the entries came out that it was top trolling from Phil Rowley to put Wishing And Hoping in this and not the Foxhunter to those who had backed him for that. It is worth remembering that Hazel Hill ran in a hunter chase at Towcester the day before the Foxhunter in 2018 so he has previous in aiming for a lesser target with a horse who could be capable of running a big race at Cheltenham. This looks a very shrewd bit of placing and connections of the others must be very frustrated that such a good horse has ended up in this. Some people have been saying the yard's form is a worry, but given he has had 5 winners from his last 14 runners that quite frankly is garbage. He will go from the front so he will be keeping things simple and if he gets round safely I don't really see how he gets beat.
Geordie and Craggaknock look unlikely to trouble for 2nd place. Light Flicker is half interesting as he was still going quite well at Cheltenham a couple of years ago when coming down at 4 out. Ironically he forced the unseat of a Rowley runner that night. He was a big price, but he was certainly out running his odds. He moved yards after that and the next season he won his maiden by 20L. There were only 3 runners and on the Cheltenham form he was always going to win that. That run was in November 2018 and he hasn't been seen since which has to be the concern. Also he tends to be up there and I can't see him being able to keep tabs on the favourite.
Absainte looked progressive last season until getting beaten at 4/7 on quick ground. She then ran in the mares race at Cheltenham's hunter chase night and ran with credit to finish 3rd. She then went to Cartmel and finished 3rd again, but she never really got involved that day. Maybe it came soon enough after a tough race at Cheltenham or it was a sharp enough trip for her. she returned last month and was impressive in victory although the race wasn't overly strong she couldn't have done it any easier and connections have been targeting this race.
Waterloo Warrior was certainly flattered by finishing so close to the winner at Leicester last month, but it did suggest that he need stepping up in trip as he was finishing strongly late on. He is clearly progressive as well and I would imagine connections had also ear marked this race as a likely target after that Leicester run.
This should be an easy victory for Wishing And Hoping as there are no negatives. He beat a horse at Taunton who is going to run at Cheltenham and was beaten by one of the leading fancies for the race at Haydock. There is nothing near those here. I think Waterloo Warrior or Absainte will finish 2nd and there should be profit to be made by splitting stakes on both either one of those things happening.
Wishing And Hoping to beat Waterloo Warrior 1pt f/c
Wishing And Hoping to beat Absainte 1pt f/c 

This Catterick race was always one of the weakest hunter chases of the season, but the quality has picked up in recent years and this year it has attracted a horse who some thought could have won this year's Foxhunter. I put on Twitter when the entries came out that it was top trolling from Phil Rowley to put Wishing And Hoping in this and not the Foxhunter to those who had backed him for that. It is worth remembering that Hazel Hill ran in a hunter chase at Towcester the day before the Foxhunter in 2018 so he has previous in aiming for a lesser target with a horse who could be capable of running a big race at Cheltenham. This looks a very shrewd bit of placing and connections of the others must be very frustrated that such a good horse has ended up in this. Some people have been saying the yard's form is a worry, but given he has had 5 winners from his last 14 runners that quite frankly is garbage. He will go from the front so he will be keeping things simple and if he gets round safely I don't really see how he gets beat.
Geordie and Craggaknock look unlikely to trouble for 2nd place. Light Flicker is half interesting as he was still going quite well at Cheltenham a couple of years ago when coming down at 4 out. Ironically he forced the unseat of a Rowley runner that night. He was a big price, but he was certainly out running his odds. He moved yards after that and the next season he won his maiden by 20L. There were only 3 runners and on the Cheltenham form he was always going to win that. That run was in November 2018 and he hasn't been seen since which has to be the concern. Also he tends to be up there and I can't see him being able to keep tabs on the favourite.
Absainte looked progressive last season until getting beaten at 4/7 on quick ground. She then ran in the mares race at Cheltenham's hunter chase night and ran with credit to finish 3rd. She then went to Cartmel and finished 3rd again, but she never really got involved that day. Maybe it came soon enough after a tough race at Cheltenham or it was a sharp enough trip for her. she returned last month and was impressive in victory although the race wasn't overly strong she couldn't have done it any easier and connections have been targeting this race.
Waterloo Warrior was certainly flattered by finishing so close to the winner at Leicester last month, but it did suggest that he need stepping up in trip as he was finishing strongly late on. He is clearly progressive as well and I would imagine connections had also ear marked this race as a likely target after that Leicester run.
This should be an easy victory for Wishing And Hoping as there are no negatives. He beat a horse at Taunton who is going to run at Cheltenham and was beaten by one of the leading fancies for the race at Haydock. There is nothing near those here. I think Waterloo Warrior or Absainte will finish 2nd and there should be profit to be made by splitting stakes on both either one of those things happening.
Wishing And Hoping to beat Waterloo Warrior 1pt f/c
Wishing And Hoping to beat Absainte 1pt f/c 

This Catterick race was always one of the weakest hunter chases of the season, but the quality has picked up in recent years and this year it has attracted a horse who some thought could have won this year's Foxhunter. I put on Twitter when the entries came out that it was top trolling from Phil Rowley to put Wishing And Hoping in this and not the Foxhunter to those who had backed him for that. It is worth remembering that Hazel Hill ran in a hunter chase at Towcester the day before the Foxhunter in 2018 so he has previous in aiming for a lesser target with a horse who could be capable of running a big race at Cheltenham. This looks a very shrewd bit of placing and connections of the others must be very frustrated that such a good horse has ended up in this. Some people have been saying the yard's form is a worry, but given he has had 5 winners from his last 14 runners that quite frankly is garbage. He will go from the front so he will be keeping things simple and if he gets round safely I don't really see how he gets beat.
Geordie and Craggaknock look unlikely to trouble for 2nd place. Light Flicker is half interesting as he was still going quite well at Cheltenham a couple of years ago when coming down at 4 out. Ironically he forced the unseat of a Rowley runner that night. He was a big price, but he was certainly out running his odds. He moved yards after that and the next season he won his maiden by 20L. There were only 3 runners and on the Cheltenham form he was always going to win that. That run was in November 2018 and he hasn't been seen since which has to be the concern. Also he tends to be up there and I can't see him being able to keep tabs on the favourite.
Absainte looked progressive last season until getting beaten at 4/7 on quick ground. She then ran in the mares race at Cheltenham's hunter chase night and ran with credit to finish 3rd. She then went to Cartmel and finished 3rd again, but she never really got involved that day. Maybe it came soon enough after a tough race at Cheltenham or it was a sharp enough trip for her. she returned last month and was impressive in victory although the race wasn't overly strong she couldn't have done it any easier and connections have been targeting this race.
Waterloo Warrior was certainly flattered by finishing so close to the winner at Leicester last month, but it did suggest that he need stepping up in trip as he was finishing strongly late on. He is clearly progressive as well and I would imagine connections had also ear marked this race as a likely target after that Leicester run.
This should be an easy victory for Wishing And Hoping as there are no negatives. He beat a horse at Taunton who is going to run at Cheltenham and was beaten by one of the leading fancies for the race at Haydock. There is nothing near those here. I think Waterloo Warrior or Absainte will finish 2nd and there should be profit to be made by splitting stakes on both either one of those things happening.
Wishing And Hoping to beat Waterloo Warrior 1pt f/c
Wishing And Hoping to beat Absainte 1pt f/c 

This Catterick race was always one of the weakest hunter chases of the season, but the quality has picked up in recent years and this year it has attracted a horse who some thought could have won this year's Foxhunter. I put on Twitter when the entries came out that it was top trolling from Phil Rowley to put Wishing And Hoping in this and not the Foxhunter to those who had backed him for that. It is worth remembering that Hazel Hill ran in a hunter chase at Towcester the day before the Foxhunter in 2018 so he has previous in aiming for a lesser target with a horse who could be capable of running a big race at Cheltenham. This looks a very shrewd bit of placing and connections of the others must be very frustrated that such a good horse has ended up in this. Some people have been saying the yard's form is a worry, but given he has had 5 winners from his last 14 runners that quite frankly is garbage. He will go from the front so he will be keeping things simple and if he gets round safely I don't really see how he gets beat.
Geordie and Craggaknock look unlikely to trouble for 2nd place. Light Flicker is half interesting as he was still going quite well at Cheltenham a couple of years ago when coming down at 4 out. Ironically he forced the unseat of a Rowley runner that night. He was a big price, but he was certainly out running his odds. He moved yards after that and the next season he won his maiden by 20L. There were only 3 runners and on the Cheltenham form he was always going to win that. That run was in November 2018 and he hasn't been seen since which has to be the concern. Also he tends to be up there and I can't see him being able to keep tabs on the favourite.
Absainte looked progressive last season until getting beaten at 4/7 on quick ground. She then ran in the mares race at Cheltenham's hunter chase night and ran with credit to finish 3rd. She then went to Cartmel and finished 3rd again, but she never really got involved that day. Maybe it came soon enough after a tough race at Cheltenham or it was a sharp enough trip for her. she returned last month and was impressive in victory although the race wasn't overly strong she couldn't have done it any easier and connections have been targeting this race.
Waterloo Warrior was certainly flattered by finishing so close to the winner at Leicester last month, but it did suggest that he need stepping up in trip as he was finishing strongly late on. He is clearly progressive as well and I would imagine connections had also ear marked this race as a likely target after that Leicester run.
This should be an easy victory for Wishing And Hoping as there are no negatives. He beat a horse at Taunton who is going to run at Cheltenham and was beaten by one of the leading fancies for the race at Haydock. There is nothing near those here. I think Waterloo Warrior or Absainte will finish 2nd and there should be profit to be made by splitting stakes on both either one of those things happening.
Wishing And Hoping to beat Waterloo Warrior 1pt f/c
Wishing And Hoping to beat Absainte 1pt f/c 

Time to make a 2nd bet. Derek O'Connor has said at a Cheltenham preview night that he expects to be riding Staker Wallace and not Minella Rocco. That is the right move for me and he surely can't give Staker Wallace as bad a ride as he gave Stand Up And Fight last year. I am a big fan of Derek and that was a rare poor ride from him. As for the horse he ran a very good race at Naas after a long time off. As stated at the time I am dubious of the form of that race anyway because of the fact it turned into a sprint and I think he can reverse form with the winner. He beat a good yardstick to qualify and although the Irish don't look a strong set of hunter chasers again this year, for me he is their number 1 contender. To be fair the British hopes don't look to have too much strength in depth to them anyway. With Derek set to ride he is surely going to go off single figures on the day and could be a shorter price than Minella Rocco.
Staker Wallace 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Betfred or 10/1 if you want it with a NRMB bookie.
Also David Maxwell has stated in tomorrow's Racing Post that he hasn't actually decided who to ride in the race yet, but will only run one of his two as he doesn't want to be on the wrong one.

Time to make a 2nd bet. Derek O'Connor has said at a Cheltenham preview night that he expects to be riding Staker Wallace and not Minella Rocco. That is the right move for me and he surely can't give Staker Wallace as bad a ride as he gave Stand Up And Fight last year. I am a big fan of Derek and that was a rare poor ride from him. As for the horse he ran a very good race at Naas after a long time off. As stated at the time I am dubious of the form of that race anyway because of the fact it turned into a sprint and I think he can reverse form with the winner. He beat a good yardstick to qualify and although the Irish don't look a strong set of hunter chasers again this year, for me he is their number 1 contender. To be fair the British hopes don't look to have too much strength in depth to them anyway. With Derek set to ride he is surely going to go off single figures on the day and could be a shorter price than Minella Rocco.
Staker Wallace 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Betfred or 10/1 if you want it with a NRMB bookie.
Also David Maxwell has stated in tomorrow's Racing Post that he hasn't actually decided who to ride in the race yet, but will only run one of his two as he doesn't want to be on the wrong one.

A quick look back at Wednesday's races first and the Musselburgh race really did sum up the season so far. It was no surprise that Virak won, but Lord Scoundrel was certainly the 2nd best horse in the race and yet somehow after looking booked for 2nd he ended up finishing 4th. The two of them raced from a long way out and Lord Scoundrel had nothing left after he lost that battle, but he comes out of the race with great credit for me. Nine Altars was tailed off for most of the race and yet flew home to finish 2nd. His jockey Charlotte Dun picked up a 12 day ban for the ride she gave him which is very harsh in my view. She is a 7lb amateur jockey and as she quite rightly said to the stewards she thought the front two had gone off two fast. To a certain extent they had and given how much he had to find on form with the winner I think he achieved his best possible placing. Even so given how little experience she has how can you go and give her such a huge ban. I haven't seen a head on so I don't know when she made her move, but there is every chance the ride was similar to the one Victoria Pendleton gave Pacha Du Polder in the Foxhunter and she didn't get a ban. I think Nine Altars and Eco Warrior helped each other by racing each other into 2nd and 3rd. I certainly think they are flattered but Nine Altars was 2nd in the final of this last season so he is fairly consistent despite struggling to win.
Chef D'Equipe was certainly on a going day today and despite setting a decent pace he found plenty late on to get back up and beat Swift Crusador after being headed. The 2nd wasn't helped by a really bad mistake at the water jump, but I am not sure it made a difference to the result. Even so it was a good effort. Art Mauresque never got into the race and plugged on for 3rd. That does qualify him for Aintree though, but its hard to fancy him for that after this. Asockastar was a big drifter which makes me think he wasn't fit and he ran like he wasn't. I will certainly be prepared to give him another chance.
Onto Thursday's action and with Taunton off we are down to just Ludlow and 4 of these ran in the same race last time with The Dellercheckout won. Monbeg Gold was 2nd, O Ceallaigh was 3rd and Dieu Vivant was well beaten back in 3rd. I'm a bit surprised that the last named is having a 3rd go over course and distance because he ran like he didn't stay the last time and in softer ground it is hard to think he is going to be capable of beating the other two. I backed him last time as I did O Ceallaigh who unseated at two out at Leicester. I thought he ran really well behind The Dellercheckout, but the Leicester race was weaker and I thought he was probably beat when coming down although he still hadn't been fully asked for his chance. I still get the feeling Monbeg Gold will get the better of him though given it was his first run of the season and a blunder two out didn't help him either. 
So that leaves us with the other one who has a serious chance Optimised and he just happens to have also finished behind The Dellercheckout this season. That came at Barbury in December when he was 4th beaten 3 and 3/4L. Monbeg Gold finished 1/4L closer to him at Ludlow. If you include the jockey's allowance then Monbeg Gold gets 3lbs here so that tips things just in his favour. Optimised is a hunter chase winner already when he just won at Bangor last year, although that form probably wasn't as strong as it looked at the time. His 2nd in the 4 mile race at Cheltenham when going down a length to Southfield Theatre was a much better effort for me. The problem is I just wonder if this will be a stiff enough test for him and he was also a bit disappointing when 2nd to Alfstar last time and he did nothing for the form at Leicester. 
I think Monbeg Gold can build on the debut hunter chase effort over course and distance and he can go one better here probably at the expense of Optimised.
Monbeg Gold 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor

A quick look back at Wednesday's races first and the Musselburgh race really did sum up the season so far. It was no surprise that Virak won, but Lord Scoundrel was certainly the 2nd best horse in the race and yet somehow after looking booked for 2nd he ended up finishing 4th. The two of them raced from a long way out and Lord Scoundrel had nothing left after he lost that battle, but he comes out of the race with great credit for me. Nine Altars was tailed off for most of the race and yet flew home to finish 2nd. His jockey Charlotte Dun picked up a 12 day ban for the ride she gave him which is very harsh in my view. She is a 7lb amateur jockey and as she quite rightly said to the stewards she thought the front two had gone off two fast. To a certain extent they had and given how much he had to find on form with the winner I think he achieved his best possible placing. Even so given how little experience she has how can you go and give her such a huge ban. I haven't seen a head on so I don't know when she made her move, but there is every chance the ride was similar to the one Victoria Pendleton gave Pacha Du Polder in the Foxhunter and she didn't get a ban. I think Nine Altars and Eco Warrior helped each other by racing each other into 2nd and 3rd. I certainly think they are flattered but Nine Altars was 2nd in the final of this last season so he is fairly consistent despite struggling to win.
Chef D'Equipe was certainly on a going day today and despite setting a decent pace he found plenty late on to get back up and beat Swift Crusador after being headed. The 2nd wasn't helped by a really bad mistake at the water jump, but I am not sure it made a difference to the result. Even so it was a good effort. Art Mauresque never got into the race and plugged on for 3rd. That does qualify him for Aintree though, but its hard to fancy him for that after this. Asockastar was a big drifter which makes me think he wasn't fit and he ran like he wasn't. I will certainly be prepared to give him another chance.
Onto Thursday's action and with Taunton off we are down to just Ludlow and 4 of these ran in the same race last time with The Dellercheckout won. Monbeg Gold was 2nd, O Ceallaigh was 3rd and Dieu Vivant was well beaten back in 3rd. I'm a bit surprised that the last named is having a 3rd go over course and distance because he ran like he didn't stay the last time and in softer ground it is hard to think he is going to be capable of beating the other two. I backed him last time as I did O Ceallaigh who unseated at two out at Leicester. I thought he ran really well behind The Dellercheckout, but the Leicester race was weaker and I thought he was probably beat when coming down although he still hadn't been fully asked for his chance. I still get the feeling Monbeg Gold will get the better of him though given it was his first run of the season and a blunder two out didn't help him either. 
So that leaves us with the other one who has a serious chance Optimised and he just happens to have also finished behind The Dellercheckout this season. That came at Barbury in December when he was 4th beaten 3 and 3/4L. Monbeg Gold finished 1/4L closer to him at Ludlow. If you include the jockey's allowance then Monbeg Gold gets 3lbs here so that tips things just in his favour. Optimised is a hunter chase winner already when he just won at Bangor last year, although that form probably wasn't as strong as it looked at the time. His 2nd in the 4 mile race at Cheltenham when going down a length to Southfield Theatre was a much better effort for me. The problem is I just wonder if this will be a stiff enough test for him and he was also a bit disappointing when 2nd to Alfstar last time and he did nothing for the form at Leicester. 
I think Monbeg Gold can build on the debut hunter chase effort over course and distance and he can go one better here probably at the expense of Optimised.
Monbeg Gold 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor

A quick look back at Wednesday's races first and the Musselburgh race really did sum up the season so far. It was no surprise that Virak won, but Lord Scoundrel was certainly the 2nd best horse in the race and yet somehow after looking booked for 2nd he ended up finishing 4th. The two of them raced from a long way out and Lord Scoundrel had nothing left after he lost that battle, but he comes out of the race with great credit for me. Nine Altars was tailed off for most of the race and yet flew home to finish 2nd. His jockey Charlotte Dun picked up a 12 day ban for the ride she gave him which is very harsh in my view. She is a 7lb amateur jockey and as she quite rightly said to the stewards she thought the front two had gone off two fast. To a certain extent they had and given how much he had to find on form with the winner I think he achieved his best possible placing. Even so given how little experience she has how can you go and give her such a huge ban. I haven't seen a head on so I don't know when she made her move, but there is every chance the ride was similar to the one Victoria Pendleton gave Pacha Du Polder in the Foxhunter and she didn't get a ban. I think Nine Altars and Eco Warrior helped each other by racing each other into 2nd and 3rd. I certainly think they are flattered but Nine Altars was 2nd in the final of this last season so he is fairly consistent despite struggling to win.
Chef D'Equipe was certainly on a going day today and despite setting a decent pace he found plenty late on to get back up and beat Swift Crusador after being headed. The 2nd wasn't helped by a really bad mistake at the water jump, but I am not sure it made a difference to the result. Even so it was a good effort. Art Mauresque never got into the race and plugged on for 3rd. That does qualify him for Aintree though, but its hard to fancy him for that after this. Asockastar was a big drifter which makes me think he wasn't fit and he ran like he wasn't. I will certainly be prepared to give him another chance.
Onto Thursday's action and with Taunton off we are down to just Ludlow and 4 of these ran in the same race last time with The Dellercheckout won. Monbeg Gold was 2nd, O Ceallaigh was 3rd and Dieu Vivant was well beaten back in 3rd. I'm a bit surprised that the last named is having a 3rd go over course and distance because he ran like he didn't stay the last time and in softer ground it is hard to think he is going to be capable of beating the other two. I backed him last time as I did O Ceallaigh who unseated at two out at Leicester. I thought he ran really well behind The Dellercheckout, but the Leicester race was weaker and I thought he was probably beat when coming down although he still hadn't been fully asked for his chance. I still get the feeling Monbeg Gold will get the better of him though given it was his first run of the season and a blunder two out didn't help him either. 
So that leaves us with the other one who has a serious chance Optimised and he just happens to have also finished behind The Dellercheckout this season. That came at Barbury in December when he was 4th beaten 3 and 3/4L. Monbeg Gold finished 1/4L closer to him at Ludlow. If you include the jockey's allowance then Monbeg Gold gets 3lbs here so that tips things just in his favour. Optimised is a hunter chase winner already when he just won at Bangor last year, although that form probably wasn't as strong as it looked at the time. His 2nd in the 4 mile race at Cheltenham when going down a length to Southfield Theatre was a much better effort for me. The problem is I just wonder if this will be a stiff enough test for him and he was also a bit disappointing when 2nd to Alfstar last time and he did nothing for the form at Leicester. 
I think Monbeg Gold can build on the debut hunter chase effort over course and distance and he can go one better here probably at the expense of Optimised.
Monbeg Gold 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor

A quick look back at Wednesday's races first and the Musselburgh race really did sum up the season so far. It was no surprise that Virak won, but Lord Scoundrel was certainly the 2nd best horse in the race and yet somehow after looking booked for 2nd he ended up finishing 4th. The two of them raced from a long way out and Lord Scoundrel had nothing left after he lost that battle, but he comes out of the race with great credit for me. Nine Altars was tailed off for most of the race and yet flew home to finish 2nd. His jockey Charlotte Dun picked up a 12 day ban for the ride she gave him which is very harsh in my view. She is a 7lb amateur jockey and as she quite rightly said to the stewards she thought the front two had gone off two fast. To a certain extent they had and given how much he had to find on form with the winner I think he achieved his best possible placing. Even so given how little experience she has how can you go and give her such a huge ban. I haven't seen a head on so I don't know when she made her move, but there is every chance the ride was similar to the one Victoria Pendleton gave Pacha Du Polder in the Foxhunter and she didn't get a ban. I think Nine Altars and Eco Warrior helped each other by racing each other into 2nd and 3rd. I certainly think they are flattered but Nine Altars was 2nd in the final of this last season so he is fairly consistent despite struggling to win.
Chef D'Equipe was certainly on a going day today and despite setting a decent pace he found plenty late on to get back up and beat Swift Crusador after being headed. The 2nd wasn't helped by a really bad mistake at the water jump, but I am not sure it made a difference to the result. Even so it was a good effort. Art Mauresque never got into the race and plugged on for 3rd. That does qualify him for Aintree though, but its hard to fancy him for that after this. Asockastar was a big drifter which makes me think he wasn't fit and he ran like he wasn't. I will certainly be prepared to give him another chance.
Onto Thursday's action and with Taunton off we are down to just Ludlow and 4 of these ran in the same race last time with The Dellercheckout won. Monbeg Gold was 2nd, O Ceallaigh was 3rd and Dieu Vivant was well beaten back in 3rd. I'm a bit surprised that the last named is having a 3rd go over course and distance because he ran like he didn't stay the last time and in softer ground it is hard to think he is going to be capable of beating the other two. I backed him last time as I did O Ceallaigh who unseated at two out at Leicester. I thought he ran really well behind The Dellercheckout, but the Leicester race was weaker and I thought he was probably beat when coming down although he still hadn't been fully asked for his chance. I still get the feeling Monbeg Gold will get the better of him though given it was his first run of the season and a blunder two out didn't help him either. 
So that leaves us with the other one who has a serious chance Optimised and he just happens to have also finished behind The Dellercheckout this season. That came at Barbury in December when he was 4th beaten 3 and 3/4L. Monbeg Gold finished 1/4L closer to him at Ludlow. If you include the jockey's allowance then Monbeg Gold gets 3lbs here so that tips things just in his favour. Optimised is a hunter chase winner already when he just won at Bangor last year, although that form probably wasn't as strong as it looked at the time. His 2nd in the 4 mile race at Cheltenham when going down a length to Southfield Theatre was a much better effort for me. The problem is I just wonder if this will be a stiff enough test for him and he was also a bit disappointing when 2nd to Alfstar last time and he did nothing for the form at Leicester. 
I think Monbeg Gold can build on the debut hunter chase effort over course and distance and he can go one better here probably at the expense of Optimised.
Monbeg Gold 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor

Let's start up in Scotland where a horse that is local to Wincanton is the hot favourite. Virak of course was very impressive at Wincanton although was helped by the fact that Earth Leader didn't stay. Even though the two of them were both going toe to toe up until the point Earth Leader's stamina ran out and to do that suggests he still has plenty of ability. I said at the time that aiming at the lesser hunter chases would be wise and going to Cheltenham would be pointless and this is what connections have done. This race is a qualifier for a final at Kelso in May and I just wonder if that is why he is running here as that would seem a very winnable target.
In my view he only has one real opponent as the betting also suggests. Lord Scoundrel won the Galway Plate in 2016 and was picked up for just £9k by his current connections. He didn't run too badly in the Galway Plate in 2018 either when 7th and that was the last time he was seen until Cottenham earlier in the month when he won a Ladies Open. He did it well considering he had been off the track for 556 days. It wasn't the strongest of races though and Virak will prove a much tougher opponent. I'm pretty certain Graeme McPherson wasn't expecting to bump into a horse of his quality when entering this. He does get 8lbs from Virak which will obviously help as well.
I think the best thing here is to play the forecast as they should fill the first two spots home.
Virak to beat Lord Scoundrel 1pt forecast
At Wincanton we have a very interesting 5 runner race. Art Mauresque is the odds on favourite and it is easy to see why. He gets weight from every other runner in the race and a couple of them have to give him 11lbs which could well be a tough task. He looked good when winning at Cotenham when winning on his pointing debut although the form hasn't worked out all that well since. He then went to Milborne St Andrew where the task would have been to qualify him for Cheltenham and also see if he was going to be able to stay the trip. He did neither and the fact the winning times of the races were just over a minute apart tells you what a much tougher test of stamina the Milborne race was. He travelled and jumped well until his stamina ran out and this drop back in trip should be ideal for him. The ground could be a concern, but I don't think the ground got him beat at Milborne, indeed the only way it might have got him beat was because his jockey stuck to the inside which looked very cut up given it was race 8 on the card. It was noticeable that the winner travelled much wider for most of the race. I'm sure if connections were that concerned about soft ground they wouldn't be running him again on it. He needs to finish in the first 3 to qualify for Aintree which looks the aim.
Asockastar won us plenty of cash last year. Not just when he won his two hunter chases, but also when he went and won a handicap off 125 at Worcester in July at a massive 12/1. He was really impressive that day as well, so much so the handicapper put him up 12lbs. He then finished 2nd at Cartmel and Uttoxeter running well both times. He ran in all the big 3 hunter chases last season and he ran with credit at Cheltenham and Aintree, but his 3rd at Stratford was a really good effort. I think he handles ground like this, but he probably wants it better and I just wonder if it might catch him out first time up especially with such a big weight. He always seems to run his race though.
Chef D'Equipe is the latest Maxwell runner to go hunter chasing and unusually for him it isn't favourite. The Newbury 2nd off 130 was a good effort, but his other two handicap runs this season weren't anywhere near as good. He has won on testing ground though so that shouldn't be a problem. That Sandown race he was 6th in last time he won in 2018 and he just has a very in and out profile. He could pick up the pieces if he is the only one that thrives in the ground, but I think others are more likely to run their races.
Swift Crusador was a massive gamble against Bob And Co at Bangor last time and amazingly he went off at just 2/1 to beat him. He departed at the 8th though and it was way too early to know how he would have got on. The gamble also means they must think 2m4f in soft ground isn't a concern given on form you couldn't be certain it is what he wants. On previous rules form he has a bit too find, but the money was very interesting at Bangor and he could easily go well here.
Art Mauresque is drifting this morning as Chef D'Equipe is being backed, but I'm not overly concerned about the ground for the favourite and it is easy to excuse the defeat last time. So for me sticking him in a double with Virak looks the way to go. Given Asockastar usually runs his race and Chef D'Equipe has a very in and out profile I am also going to have a small play on the forecast.
Art Mauresque to beat Asockastar 0.5pts f/c
Virak/Art Mauresque 1pt double at 1.9/1 with Bet365

Let's start up in Scotland where a horse that is local to Wincanton is the hot favourite. Virak of course was very impressive at Wincanton although was helped by the fact that Earth Leader didn't stay. Even though the two of them were both going toe to toe up until the point Earth Leader's stamina ran out and to do that suggests he still has plenty of ability. I said at the time that aiming at the lesser hunter chases would be wise and going to Cheltenham would be pointless and this is what connections have done. This race is a qualifier for a final at Kelso in May and I just wonder if that is why he is running here as that would seem a very winnable target.
In my view he only has one real opponent as the betting also suggests. Lord Scoundrel won the Galway Plate in 2016 and was picked up for just £9k by his current connections. He didn't run too badly in the Galway Plate in 2018 either when 7th and that was the last time he was seen until Cottenham earlier in the month when he won a Ladies Open. He did it well considering he had been off the track for 556 days. It wasn't the strongest of races though and Virak will prove a much tougher opponent. I'm pretty certain Graeme McPherson wasn't expecting to bump into a horse of his quality when entering this. He does get 8lbs from Virak which will obviously help as well.
I think the best thing here is to play the forecast as they should fill the first two spots home.
Virak to beat Lord Scoundrel 1pt forecast
At Wincanton we have a very interesting 5 runner race. Art Mauresque is the odds on favourite and it is easy to see why. He gets weight from every other runner in the race and a couple of them have to give him 11lbs which could well be a tough task. He looked good when winning at Cotenham when winning on his pointing debut although the form hasn't worked out all that well since. He then went to Milborne St Andrew where the task would have been to qualify him for Cheltenham and also see if he was going to be able to stay the trip. He did neither and the fact the winning times of the races were just over a minute apart tells you what a much tougher test of stamina the Milborne race was. He travelled and jumped well until his stamina ran out and this drop back in trip should be ideal for him. The ground could be a concern, but I don't think the ground got him beat at Milborne, indeed the only way it might have got him beat was because his jockey stuck to the inside which looked very cut up given it was race 8 on the card. It was noticeable that the winner travelled much wider for most of the race. I'm sure if connections were that concerned about soft ground they wouldn't be running him again on it. He needs to finish in the first 3 to qualify for Aintree which looks the aim.
Asockastar won us plenty of cash last year. Not just when he won his two hunter chases, but also when he went and won a handicap off 125 at Worcester in July at a massive 12/1. He was really impressive that day as well, so much so the handicapper put him up 12lbs. He then finished 2nd at Cartmel and Uttoxeter running well both times. He ran in all the big 3 hunter chases last season and he ran with credit at Cheltenham and Aintree, but his 3rd at Stratford was a really good effort. I think he handles ground like this, but he probably wants it better and I just wonder if it might catch him out first time up especially with such a big weight. He always seems to run his race though.
Chef D'Equipe is the latest Maxwell runner to go hunter chasing and unusually for him it isn't favourite. The Newbury 2nd off 130 was a good effort, but his other two handicap runs this season weren't anywhere near as good. He has won on testing ground though so that shouldn't be a problem. That Sandown race he was 6th in last time he won in 2018 and he just has a very in and out profile. He could pick up the pieces if he is the only one that thrives in the ground, but I think others are more likely to run their races.
Swift Crusador was a massive gamble against Bob And Co at Bangor last time and amazingly he went off at just 2/1 to beat him. He departed at the 8th though and it was way too early to know how he would have got on. The gamble also means they must think 2m4f in soft ground isn't a concern given on form you couldn't be certain it is what he wants. On previous rules form he has a bit too find, but the money was very interesting at Bangor and he could easily go well here.
Art Mauresque is drifting this morning as Chef D'Equipe is being backed, but I'm not overly concerned about the ground for the favourite and it is easy to excuse the defeat last time. So for me sticking him in a double with Virak looks the way to go. Given Asockastar usually runs his race and Chef D'Equipe has a very in and out profile I am also going to have a small play on the forecast.
Art Mauresque to beat Asockastar 0.5pts f/c
Virak/Art Mauresque 1pt double at 1.9/1 with Bet365

So Bob And Co and Alcala qualified with ease at Fontwell yesterday. As I thought it would be it turned into a sprint over the last couple of furlongs and although looking like he would get beat Bob And Co got back up late on to win. I have seen a few people on a couple of forums suggest both horses had a hard race, but I suspect both have worked harder up the gallops and I can't see how anyone can think they had a tough race yesterday. They went a slow pace for most of the race and even at the finish neither horse was worked that hard. Maxwell didn't pick his stick up once and Angus wasn't exactly working that hard on the 2nd. The time for the race was by far the slowest of the meeting which backs up the fact they went no pace. Regardless what you think about their chances for Cheltenham in my view the one thing you can't say is a negative is the fact they had a hard race at Fontwell. Anyone who thinks that needs to watch a replay of the race and then watch the closing stages from Thurles on Thursday for comparison.In my view Alcala could have won the race with Angus had kicked on at 2 out, but obviously he didn't want to give the horse a hard race so tried to win cosily if possible and like I say he certainly wasn't vigorous in the closing stages. If he is in contention at The Festival he will certainly be given a stronger ride.
Reading between the lines I think the trainer thinks Alcala is the more likely to win at Cheltenham and I agree with him. I am still not sure he will stay though, but he clearly still retains plenty of ability. I think both horses would have a better chance at Aintree myself. What will be interesting is if Maxwell decides to run both Bob And Co and Shantou Flyer. If he does I think he will ride Bob And Co, but in my view last year's 2nd has a better chance of winning and I can imagine plenty of people will be ringing wanting the ride. Angus rode him to win his point at Larkhill last month, but you would imagine he would be on Alcala.
Wednesday at 12pm is when we find out who has been entered.

This race is one of the most unique races ever run in my view and quite frankly I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole for betting purposes. Kelvingrove ran at Charing on Saturday so we will be down to 4 runners and you don't need me to tell you that baring mishaps that Alcala and Bob And Co will fill the first two places home. That of course will mean they qualify for Cheltenham. Nicholls has been forced to run in them in the same race as this is the last chance for them to qualify for the Foxhunter and it will all be about getting home safe without having had a race. We are less than 3 weeks out from the Foxhunter and the last thing either horse wants is a slog over 3m2f in heavy ground. Neither horse would be running if it wasn't for qualification and I am sure they won't really care who wins. If Bob And Co settles as well as he did at Bangor I can see the two of them going round at a sensible pace and then making a race of it after the last as they will have to be seen to be trying to win the race or else the stewards won't be happy. Because of this how can anyone possibly have a bet on the race? I suppose you could say that Alcala has the better jockey and has 5lbs less to carry, but neither horse to me wants 3m2f in the mud and it could just turn out who has the most pace at the end of the race. As I type the market can't really split them and that is my view on it. If they were from different yards it might be different, but even then I can imagine they would have sorted it so neither horse had a hard time. One of them will win, but it is a total guess as to which one.
All being well we should see some much better betting opportunities in the hunter chases to come next week.

After thinking we might see some Cheltenham clues at Thurles today in the end I don't think we did.
God knows what Tom Hamilton thought he was doing on Mighty Stowaway as he set a stupid gallop along with Wounded Warrior. Given how soon he dropped away I was surprised to actually see him finish 5th and fairly play to Wounded Warrior to finish 3rd. The winner looked like he had no chance for most of the race, but managed to go slightly quicker than the 2nd after the last in a tiring finish. It could be said he gave a boost to Staker Wallace's form as last time out he was a 9L 4th to Lite Duties who was beaten by Staker Wallace on Sunday. I'm not sure given the way this race was run can be used as a solid guide though to be honest. He was beaten 49L by Caid Du Berlais at Punchestown last year and if anything he highlights that the Irish don't have any strength in depth in this division at the moment. I guess they might go to Cheltenham with him now, but I wouldn't fancy him.
Samurai Cracker fell at the last at Naas last time when still in contention in the race won by Billaway although I'm not sure he would have been in the first 3. He looked the winner for a long way, but was out on his feet after the last and he is really going to know he had a race. This did qualify him for Cheltenham should connections want to go down that route, but hard to think this was the ideal prep for a race in 3 weeks time.
Stand Up And Fight drifted like a barge all day, until betting opened on track and he was really well backed. That suggested connections were expecting a big run, but they got the opposite. I know it was his first run of the season and he was entitled to get tired in the ground, but he was beaten a long way out. He did travel quite well off the strong pace, but it wasn't really what you wanted to see as regards to Cheltenham. It will be interesting to see if he features in the entries next week, but Enda is really going to have to work his magic to get him ready for Cheltenham. Ucello Conti finished 1 place in front of Stand Up And Fight last year, but he seems to have gone backwards after finishing a 4L 2nd to Macs Legend on his seasonal return. I would be surprised if Gordon decided to send him over after this.
The one I haven't mentioned is Some Man. He had been prominent in the betting and was quietly fancied for Cheltenham, but he can't now qualify for the race. His wins in points didn't come in opens and he needed to finish 1st or 2nd here to qualify. He was never put into the race at all although it seems that was because the horse was hating the ground according to connections. On the face of it though it did just seem a terrible ride or that a he was being ridden with Cheltenham in mind. So there is no Cheltenham for him, but he is one to bare in mind for the other Festivals to come.