Hunter Chase - 4.50 Catterick

[Darran]

This Catterick race was always one of the weakest hunter chases of the season, but the quality has picked up in recent years and this year it has attracted a horse who some thought could have won this year's Foxhunter. I put on Twitter when the entries came out that it was top trolling from Phil Rowley to put Wishing And Hoping in this and not the Foxhunter to those who had backed him for that. It is worth remembering that Hazel Hill ran in a hunter chase at Towcester the day before the Foxhunter in 2018 so he has previous in aiming for a lesser target with a horse who could be capable of running a big race at Cheltenham. This looks a very shrewd bit of placing and connections of the others must be very frustrated that such a good horse has ended up in this. Some people have been saying the yard's form is a worry, but given he has had 5 winners from his last 14 runners that quite frankly is garbage. He will go from the front so he will be keeping things simple and if he gets round safely I don't really see how he gets beat.

Geordie and Craggaknock look unlikely to trouble for 2nd place. Light Flicker is half interesting as he was still going quite well at Cheltenham a couple of years ago when coming down at 4 out. Ironically he forced the unseat of a Rowley runner that night. He was a big price, but he was certainly out running his odds. He moved yards after that and the next season he won his maiden by 20L. There were only 3 runners and on the Cheltenham form he was always going to win that. That run was in November 2018 and he hasn't been seen since which has to be the concern. Also he tends to be up there and I can't see him being able to keep tabs on the favourite.

Absainte looked progressive last season until getting beaten at 4/7 on quick ground. She then ran in the mares race at Cheltenham's hunter chase night and ran with credit to finish 3rd. She then went to Cartmel and finished 3rd again, but she never really got involved that day. Maybe it came soon enough after a tough race at Cheltenham or it was a sharp enough trip for her. she returned last month and was impressive in victory although the race wasn't overly strong she couldn't have done it any easier and connections have been targeting this race.

Waterloo Warrior was certainly flattered by finishing so close to the winner at Leicester last month, but it did suggest that he need stepping up in trip as he was finishing strongly late on. He is clearly progressive as well and I would imagine connections had also ear marked this race as a likely target after that Leicester run.

This should be an easy victory for Wishing And Hoping as there are no negatives. He beat a horse at Taunton who is going to run at Cheltenham and was beaten by one of the leading fancies for the race at Haydock. There is nothing near those here. I think Waterloo Warrior or Absainte will finish 2nd and there should be profit to be made by splitting stakes on both either one of those things happening.

Wishing And Hoping to beat Waterloo Warrior 1pt f/c

Wishing And Hoping to beat Absainte 1pt f/c 

[yossa6133]

Interesting betting in this one, major drift on the fav for some reason out to 4/6.

[yossa6133]

Forecast was out to 11/1 just shortly before the off on bet365! 

[paceman]

Touched 8/11 could not believe it! Had to be maximum at that price!

[Darran]

I'm not sure I have seen a more bizarre betting market than the one we saw here. If you weren't following the moves then Wishing And Hoping drifted from 4/11 to 8/11 (and went bigger on track and on Betfair), whilst Waterloo Warrior was backed from 3/1 into 5/4. This move happened very quickly as well especially in the later stages of it. Then the fav went back into 1/2 as the 2nd fav drifted back out. I could barely believe my eyes as I was watching the betting and you had to wonder if it was too good to be true. It seems that a very large staking punter was able to manipulate the market so that they started the move on Waterloo Warrior to then force the drift on Wishing And Hoping before going large on Wishing And Hoping. It seems plausible to me given how it happened although we will never know for certain. Anyway the winner did it every bit as easy as was expected and put in a cracking round of jumping bar the 2nd last. Aintree must come on the radar now, although I think Stratford would be an even better target and maybe they might give him a little break instead before going there. If he does go to Aintree though he would be on the shortlist.

When I put the preview up Absainte was around 7/1, but thanks in part to a gamble on Craggaknock and to a massive drift she went off at 18/1. That of course enhanced our forecast play and it paid £13.70 on the Tote and £10.89 on the CSF. As I mentioned in the preview connections must have been rather annoyed that Wishing And Hoping turned up as she would have bolted up without him. Hopefully she will find a winnable race before the season is out as she ran well here. Light Flicker didn't do too badly either on his first run for a while. Waterloo Warrior didn't take to it at all today although bizarrely the Racing Post analysis seemed to blame the ground even though he was 2nd in heavy ground at Leicester. He jumped poorly and was beaten from a long way out. To me it was too bad to be true.

Hopefully now I have a big price winner under my belt we can kick on with the rest of the season. Ffos Las and Leicester are both due to have races on Friday as long as the weather plays ball.

[Catchy]

Heads up for your fc bets Darren, I have found Bet365 pays BOG but PPower don't, made a massive difference on your 4.50 Catterick bet. thanks for the tipping btw ?

[Darran]

4 hours ago, Catchy said:

Heads up for your fc bets Darren, I have found Bet365 pays BOG but PPower don't, made a massive difference on your 4.50 Catterick bet. thanks for the tipping btw ?

I was on with 365 myself so noticed that and it came in very handy although I wasn’t aware they did it