Hunter Chases - 4.10 Musselburgh and 5.20 Wincanton

[Darran]

Let's start up in Scotland where a horse that is local to Wincanton is the hot favourite. Virak of course was very impressive at Wincanton although was helped by the fact that Earth Leader didn't stay. Even though the two of them were both going toe to toe up until the point Earth Leader's stamina ran out and to do that suggests he still has plenty of ability. I said at the time that aiming at the lesser hunter chases would be wise and going to Cheltenham would be pointless and this is what connections have done. This race is a qualifier for a final at Kelso in May and I just wonder if that is why he is running here as that would seem a very winnable target.

In my view he only has one real opponent as the betting also suggests. Lord Scoundrel won the Galway Plate in 2016 and was picked up for just £9k by his current connections. He didn't run too badly in the Galway Plate in 2018 either when 7th and that was the last time he was seen until Cottenham earlier in the month when he won a Ladies Open. He did it well considering he had been off the track for 556 days. It wasn't the strongest of races though and Virak will prove a much tougher opponent. I'm pretty certain Graeme McPherson wasn't expecting to bump into a horse of his quality when entering this. He does get 8lbs from Virak which will obviously help as well.

I think the best thing here is to play the forecast as they should fill the first two spots home.

Virak to beat Lord Scoundrel 1pt forecast

At Wincanton we have a very interesting 5 runner race. Art Mauresque is the odds on favourite and it is easy to see why. He gets weight from every other runner in the race and a couple of them have to give him 11lbs which could well be a tough task. He looked good when winning at Cotenham when winning on his pointing debut although the form hasn't worked out all that well since. He then went to Milborne St Andrew where the task would have been to qualify him for Cheltenham and also see if he was going to be able to stay the trip. He did neither and the fact the winning times of the races were just over a minute apart tells you what a much tougher test of stamina the Milborne race was. He travelled and jumped well until his stamina ran out and this drop back in trip should be ideal for him. The ground could be a concern, but I don't think the ground got him beat at Milborne, indeed the only way it might have got him beat was because his jockey stuck to the inside which looked very cut up given it was race 8 on the card. It was noticeable that the winner travelled much wider for most of the race. I'm sure if connections were that concerned about soft ground they wouldn't be running him again on it. He needs to finish in the first 3 to qualify for Aintree which looks the aim.

Asockastar won us plenty of cash last year. Not just when he won his two hunter chases, but also when he went and won a handicap off 125 at Worcester in July at a massive 12/1. He was really impressive that day as well, so much so the handicapper put him up 12lbs. He then finished 2nd at Cartmel and Uttoxeter running well both times. He ran in all the big 3 hunter chases last season and he ran with credit at Cheltenham and Aintree, but his 3rd at Stratford was a really good effort. I think he handles ground like this, but he probably wants it better and I just wonder if it might catch him out first time up especially with such a big weight. He always seems to run his race though.

Chef D'Equipe is the latest Maxwell runner to go hunter chasing and unusually for him it isn't favourite. The Newbury 2nd off 130 was a good effort, but his other two handicap runs this season weren't anywhere near as good. He has won on testing ground though so that shouldn't be a problem. That Sandown race he was 6th in last time he won in 2018 and he just has a very in and out profile. He could pick up the pieces if he is the only one that thrives in the ground, but I think others are more likely to run their races.

Swift Crusador was a massive gamble against Bob And Co at Bangor last time and amazingly he went off at just 2/1 to beat him. He departed at the 8th though and it was way too early to know how he would have got on. The gamble also means they must think 2m4f in soft ground isn't a concern given on form you couldn't be certain it is what he wants. On previous rules form he has a bit too find, but the money was very interesting at Bangor and he could easily go well here.

Art Mauresque is drifting this morning as Chef D'Equipe is being backed, but I'm not overly concerned about the ground for the favourite and it is easy to excuse the defeat last time. So for me sticking him in a double with Virak looks the way to go. Given Asockastar usually runs his race and Chef D'Equipe has a very in and out profile I am also going to have a small play on the forecast.

Art Mauresque to beat Asockastar 0.5pts f/c

Virak/Art Mauresque 1pt double at 1.9/1 with Bet365