Darran

Pretty much a dream day yesterday. Bob And Co pretty much put in a perfect round of jumping. He took off too early at one fence, but apart from that it was all very easy for him. He covered the 10L margin with ease as well and that 2/1 really was a gift if you could get on. No idea where they go with him next and I would have sent him to Punchestown, but I suspect he will just pot hunt to give his rider more winners over here. Thankfully for us Killer Crow was just best of the rest although he didn't up going off the outsider so it did reduce the payout. Black River was really poor though even allowing for the fact he might have needed it. Obviously the form bar the winner is weak.
At Kempton I thought Adrien Du Pont was very impressive and he clocked a fast time as well despite having gone clear from 5 out. Again I am not sure where they go with him next, but it will take a serious horse to beat him on this evidence. I'm surprised he was so aggressive on Envoye Special as he went toe to toe with the winner for a long way, but then just couldn't live with him. He clearly wont always bump into such a good one though. Obviously in the latter stages of the race we couldn't see the crucial race for 3rd, but in the end Tom Barton finished 29L in front of Dissertation. Thankfully Sheer Poetry did line up having looked a bit reluctant before hand and she drifted from 28/1 to 100/1. It was one of those rare ricks that the bookies could do little about because the prices are linked to the outright market and obviously Tom Barton wasn't being backed in it. It was nice to take full advantage of it though. He actually didn't really run that well as his jumping wasn't great, but he did what he needed to do for us to collect.
We have a match at Sedgefield today which is a non event from a betting point of view, but we have Ludlow tomorrow, a point to point bumper at Exeter on Thursday and a hunter chase at Chepstow on Friday.

Pretty much a dream day yesterday. Bob And Co pretty much put in a perfect round of jumping. He took off too early at one fence, but apart from that it was all very easy for him. He covered the 10L margin with ease as well and that 2/1 really was a gift if you could get on. No idea where they go with him next and I would have sent him to Punchestown, but I suspect he will just pot hunt to give his rider more winners over here. Thankfully for us Killer Crow was just best of the rest although he didn't up going off the outsider so it did reduce the payout. Black River was really poor though even allowing for the fact he might have needed it. Obviously the form bar the winner is weak.
At Kempton I thought Adrien Du Pont was very impressive and he clocked a fast time as well despite having gone clear from 5 out. Again I am not sure where they go with him next, but it will take a serious horse to beat him on this evidence. I'm surprised he was so aggressive on Envoye Special as he went toe to toe with the winner for a long way, but then just couldn't live with him. He clearly wont always bump into such a good one though. Obviously in the latter stages of the race we couldn't see the crucial race for 3rd, but in the end Tom Barton finished 29L in front of Dissertation. Thankfully Sheer Poetry did line up having looked a bit reluctant before hand and she drifted from 28/1 to 100/1. It was one of those rare ricks that the bookies could do little about because the prices are linked to the outright market and obviously Tom Barton wasn't being backed in it. It was nice to take full advantage of it though. He actually didn't really run that well as his jumping wasn't great, but he did what he needed to do for us to collect.
We have a match at Sedgefield today which is a non event from a betting point of view, but we have Ludlow tomorrow, a point to point bumper at Exeter on Thursday and a hunter chase at Chepstow on Friday.

Wasn’t it just! Apparently it was 30/100 with betfair at the off. It was one of those markets which the bookies were going to find hard to adjust as it’s linked to the outright market. 

I have now spotted a betting opportunity at Kempton, indeed it looks a fantastic opportunity.
Bet365 and Betfair have betting without the front two in the betting market and I can't believe Tom Barton is joint favourite at 13/8 with 365 and 6/4 with Betfair in this market as in my view he should be odds on. Sheer Poetry is the other at the head of the market and she hasn't run for 1096 days and her last win was off 105 back in October 2017. More importantly though is her new trainer has a terrible record with his horses in the past as they have mainly not even completed the course. Dissertation has been off the track for nearly 2 years and is pretty average, whilst the outsider has no chance. As I mention above Tom Barton did well enough at Stratford and his run at Wincanton the time before was decent enough in the context of the other 3 he faces in this market.
Tom Barton 4pts in the betting without front two market @ 13/8 with Bet365

Clearly it wasn't David Maxwell's finest hour at Wincanton and whilst his sit at Aintree was superb this unseat from Shantou Flyer was a shocker. To be fair I wasn't certain he was going to win as Keltus was still in contention jumping the last and we know Maxwell has looked unfit since his return. I'm not really sure why Keltus had drifted out to 16/1 and I hadn't realised he had got so big until the SP's flashed across the screen during the race. In a match with the 3rd I'd have made him slight favourite over the two. Whatever happened it was a fine effort although Shantou Flyer clearly hasn't run up to form.
 
The Stratford race was really frustrating as Fishy Story lost so much ground by either jumping out to her right or a slow jump. She only lost by a length and you have to think a better round of jumping would have seen her win the race. Fair play to the winner though who was given a very good ride in what was basically a carbon copy performance of what he did over course and distance last month. He found himself outpaced and then stayed on with great effect after the last. Leaving the back I thought he was the main danger given what happened the last time and so it proved. Captain Buck's never really travelled that well and I think he's basically run his race because he wasn't beaten far at all.
 
We have two hunter chases this afternoon and we have two more long odds on Paul Nicholls favourites. Bob And Co is in my view the best hunter chaser in the country and if Maxwell stays on he should win by a long margin. I guess after today that is a bigger if than it ought to be, but this really ought to be his first winner back. As much as I am not the sort of punter who will get involved at 1/4 he should be way shorter than that and if he doesn't win by a long way or without coming out of 2nd gear then it will be disappointing.
 
In theory Black River should come 2nd, but this is his first run for over a year and his first up record isn't the best. He pulled up first time out last season and then went onto land a hat-trick although the last of those was in a match. I just wonder if he might need this especially now he is 12 and there could be value in taking him on.
 
Given the trainer of Wonderoftheworld has done terribly with her horses so far I can't have him at all and I am amazed he his 3rd in the betting. He also showed nothing at all at Carlisle on his debut for the yard.
 
Next in the betting we have the two Amie Waugh trained runners and she has chosen to ride Winged Crusader and I think that is interesting. Son Of  Suzie did win 3 weeks ago at Hutton Rudby, but he may have been slightly fortunate given a loose horse bumped into the 1st 3 runners after the last fence and the 3rd was hampered the worse. The time of that race though was 14 seconds slower than the race Winged Crusader was 2nd in on the same card. That wasn't a strong heat, but he is fairly consistent and it wouldn't surprise me if he kept going for minor honours.  
 
Killer Crow finished in front of Wonderoftheworld at Carlisle as he finished 6th have been up there. He didn't run too badly at Musselburgh the time before either and was an OK 3rd in the Grimthorpe Gold Cup last week. I'd have him a bit shorter in the betting than he currently is myself.
 
If you can get on with Skybet they are offering 2/1 Bob And Co winning by 10L or more and that seems a price worth taking to me as if he gets round safely he really ought to cover that margin with ease. I will chance a couple of small forecast plays with Winged Crusader and Killer Crow to finish 2nd.
 
Bob And Co to beat Winged Crusader 0.5pts f/c
Bob And Co to beat Killer Crow 0.5pts f/c
 
At Kempton Adrien Du Pont should win fairly comfortably as well. He beat a useful pointer with ease at Newbury and it's hard to see what beats him. I had thought Envoye Special might be a bit of a bridle horse, but he stormed to a good win at Kimble a couple of weeks ago. He was ridden differently that day as well from his 3 previous runs where as he was prominent rather than being held up. He was 4th at Stratford and Tom Barton was one place behind him in 5th, but he was over 20L behind him distance wise. Tom Barton probably paid for being part of a strong pace early doors as he got very tired. I'd probably have them a bit close together in the betting than they are, but I still think Envoye Special is the most likely to finish 2nd. Given the prices I don't see a betting opportunity in this contest.

Wasn’t it just! Apparently it was 30/100 with betfair at the off. It was one of those markets which the bookies were going to find hard to adjust as it’s linked to the outright market. 

Weird experience being so interested in what what going on a fence back! Superb tipping Darran 
 
What price did it start without the front 2? I saw it was as short as 8/15.

Great work today @Darran well done mate.

I have now spotted a betting opportunity at Kempton, indeed it looks a fantastic opportunity.
Bet365 and Betfair have betting without the front two in the betting market and I can't believe Tom Barton is joint favourite at 13/8 with 365 and 6/4 with Betfair in this market as in my view he should be odds on. Sheer Poetry is the other at the head of the market and she hasn't run for 1096 days and her last win was off 105 back in October 2017. More importantly though is her new trainer has a terrible record with his horses in the past as they have mainly not even completed the course. Dissertation has been off the track for nearly 2 years and is pretty average, whilst the outsider has no chance. As I mention above Tom Barton did well enough at Stratford and his run at Wincanton the time before was decent enough in the context of the other 3 he faces in this market.
Tom Barton 4pts in the betting without front two market @ 13/8 with Bet365

Clearly it wasn't David Maxwell's finest hour at Wincanton and whilst his sit at Aintree was superb this unseat from Shantou Flyer was a shocker. To be fair I wasn't certain he was going to win as Keltus was still in contention jumping the last and we know Maxwell has looked unfit since his return. I'm not really sure why Keltus had drifted out to 16/1 and I hadn't realised he had got so big until the SP's flashed across the screen during the race. In a match with the 3rd I'd have made him slight favourite over the two. Whatever happened it was a fine effort although Shantou Flyer clearly hasn't run up to form.
 
The Stratford race was really frustrating as Fishy Story lost so much ground by either jumping out to her right or a slow jump. She only lost by a length and you have to think a better round of jumping would have seen her win the race. Fair play to the winner though who was given a very good ride in what was basically a carbon copy performance of what he did over course and distance last month. He found himself outpaced and then stayed on with great effect after the last. Leaving the back I thought he was the main danger given what happened the last time and so it proved. Captain Buck's never really travelled that well and I think he's basically run his race because he wasn't beaten far at all.
 
We have two hunter chases this afternoon and we have two more long odds on Paul Nicholls favourites. Bob And Co is in my view the best hunter chaser in the country and if Maxwell stays on he should win by a long margin. I guess after today that is a bigger if than it ought to be, but this really ought to be his first winner back. As much as I am not the sort of punter who will get involved at 1/4 he should be way shorter than that and if he doesn't win by a long way or without coming out of 2nd gear then it will be disappointing.
 
In theory Black River should come 2nd, but this is his first run for over a year and his first up record isn't the best. He pulled up first time out last season and then went onto land a hat-trick although the last of those was in a match. I just wonder if he might need this especially now he is 12 and there could be value in taking him on.
 
Given the trainer of Wonderoftheworld has done terribly with her horses so far I can't have him at all and I am amazed he his 3rd in the betting. He also showed nothing at all at Carlisle on his debut for the yard.
 
Next in the betting we have the two Amie Waugh trained runners and she has chosen to ride Winged Crusader and I think that is interesting. Son Of  Suzie did win 3 weeks ago at Hutton Rudby, but he may have been slightly fortunate given a loose horse bumped into the 1st 3 runners after the last fence and the 3rd was hampered the worse. The time of that race though was 14 seconds slower than the race Winged Crusader was 2nd in on the same card. That wasn't a strong heat, but he is fairly consistent and it wouldn't surprise me if he kept going for minor honours.  
 
Killer Crow finished in front of Wonderoftheworld at Carlisle as he finished 6th have been up there. He didn't run too badly at Musselburgh the time before either and was an OK 3rd in the Grimthorpe Gold Cup last week. I'd have him a bit shorter in the betting than he currently is myself.
 
If you can get on with Skybet they are offering 2/1 Bob And Co winning by 10L or more and that seems a price worth taking to me as if he gets round safely he really ought to cover that margin with ease. I will chance a couple of small forecast plays with Winged Crusader and Killer Crow to finish 2nd.
 
Bob And Co to beat Winged Crusader 0.5pts f/c
Bob And Co to beat Killer Crow 0.5pts f/c
 
At Kempton Adrien Du Pont should win fairly comfortably as well. He beat a useful pointer with ease at Newbury and it's hard to see what beats him. I had thought Envoye Special might be a bit of a bridle horse, but he stormed to a good win at Kimble a couple of weeks ago. He was ridden differently that day as well from his 3 previous runs where as he was prominent rather than being held up. He was 4th at Stratford and Tom Barton was one place behind him in 5th, but he was over 20L behind him distance wise. Tom Barton probably paid for being part of a strong pace early doors as he got very tired. I'd probably have them a bit close together in the betting than they are, but I still think Envoye Special is the most likely to finish 2nd. Given the prices I don't see a betting opportunity in this contest.

Just the 41 lengths! Maxwell wasn't messing about there. Cheers Darran.

Clearly it wasn't David Maxwell's finest hour at Wincanton and whilst his sit at Aintree was superb this unseat from Shantou Flyer was a shocker. To be fair I wasn't certain he was going to win as Keltus was still in contention jumping the last and we know Maxwell has looked unfit since his return. I'm not really sure why Keltus had drifted out to 16/1 and I hadn't realised he had got so big until the SP's flashed across the screen during the race. In a match with the 3rd I'd have made him slight favourite over the two. Whatever happened it was a fine effort although Shantou Flyer clearly hasn't run up to form.
 
The Stratford race was really frustrating as Fishy Story lost so much ground by either jumping out to her right or a slow jump. She only lost by a length and you have to think a better round of jumping would have seen her win the race. Fair play to the winner though who was given a very good ride in what was basically a carbon copy performance of what he did over course and distance last month. He found himself outpaced and then stayed on with great effect after the last. Leaving the back I thought he was the main danger given what happened the last time and so it proved. Captain Buck's never really travelled that well and I think he's basically run his race because he wasn't beaten far at all.
 
We have two hunter chases this afternoon and we have two more long odds on Paul Nicholls favourites. Bob And Co is in my view the best hunter chaser in the country and if Maxwell stays on he should win by a long margin. I guess after today that is a bigger if than it ought to be, but this really ought to be his first winner back. As much as I am not the sort of punter who will get involved at 1/4 he should be way shorter than that and if he doesn't win by a long way or without coming out of 2nd gear then it will be disappointing.
 
In theory Black River should come 2nd, but this is his first run for over a year and his first up record isn't the best. He pulled up first time out last season and then went onto land a hat-trick although the last of those was in a match. I just wonder if he might need this especially now he is 12 and there could be value in taking him on.
 
Given the trainer of Wonderoftheworld has done terribly with her horses so far I can't have him at all and I am amazed he his 3rd in the betting. He also showed nothing at all at Carlisle on his debut for the yard.
 
Next in the betting we have the two Amie Waugh trained runners and she has chosen to ride Winged Crusader and I think that is interesting. Son Of  Suzie did win 3 weeks ago at Hutton Rudby, but he may have been slightly fortunate given a loose horse bumped into the 1st 3 runners after the last fence and the 3rd was hampered the worse. The time of that race though was 14 seconds slower than the race Winged Crusader was 2nd in on the same card. That wasn't a strong heat, but he is fairly consistent and it wouldn't surprise me if he kept going for minor honours.  
 
Killer Crow finished in front of Wonderoftheworld at Carlisle as he finished 6th have been up there. He didn't run too badly at Musselburgh the time before either and was an OK 3rd in the Grimthorpe Gold Cup last week. I'd have him a bit shorter in the betting than he currently is myself.
 
If you can get on with Skybet they are offering 2/1 Bob And Co winning by 10L or more and that seems a price worth taking to me as if he gets round safely he really ought to cover that margin with ease. I will chance a couple of small forecast plays with Winged Crusader and Killer Crow to finish 2nd.
 
Bob And Co to beat Winged Crusader 0.5pts f/c
Bob And Co to beat Killer Crow 0.5pts f/c
 
At Kempton Adrien Du Pont should win fairly comfortably as well. He beat a useful pointer with ease at Newbury and it's hard to see what beats him. I had thought Envoye Special might be a bit of a bridle horse, but he stormed to a good win at Kimble a couple of weeks ago. He was ridden differently that day as well from his 3 previous runs where as he was prominent rather than being held up. He was 4th at Stratford and Tom Barton was one place behind him in 5th, but he was over 20L behind him distance wise. Tom Barton probably paid for being part of a strong pace early doors as he got very tired. I'd probably have them a bit close together in the betting than they are, but I still think Envoye Special is the most likely to finish 2nd. Given the prices I don't see a betting opportunity in this contest.

Clearly it wasn't David Maxwell's finest hour at Wincanton and whilst his sit at Aintree was superb this unseat from Shantou Flyer was a shocker. To be fair I wasn't certain he was going to win as Keltus was still in contention jumping the last and we know Maxwell has looked unfit since his return. I'm not really sure why Keltus had drifted out to 16/1 and I hadn't realised he had got so big until the SP's flashed across the screen during the race. In a match with the 3rd I'd have made him slight favourite over the two. Whatever happened it was a fine effort although Shantou Flyer clearly hasn't run up to form.
 
The Stratford race was really frustrating as Fishy Story lost so much ground by either jumping out to her right or a slow jump. She only lost by a length and you have to think a better round of jumping would have seen her win the race. Fair play to the winner though who was given a very good ride in what was basically a carbon copy performance of what he did over course and distance last month. He found himself outpaced and then stayed on with great effect after the last. Leaving the back I thought he was the main danger given what happened the last time and so it proved. Captain Buck's never really travelled that well and I think he's basically run his race because he wasn't beaten far at all.
 
We have two hunter chases this afternoon and we have two more long odds on Paul Nicholls favourites. Bob And Co is in my view the best hunter chaser in the country and if Maxwell stays on he should win by a long margin. I guess after today that is a bigger if than it ought to be, but this really ought to be his first winner back. As much as I am not the sort of punter who will get involved at 1/4 he should be way shorter than that and if he doesn't win by a long way or without coming out of 2nd gear then it will be disappointing.
 
In theory Black River should come 2nd, but this is his first run for over a year and his first up record isn't the best. He pulled up first time out last season and then went onto land a hat-trick although the last of those was in a match. I just wonder if he might need this especially now he is 12 and there could be value in taking him on.
 
Given the trainer of Wonderoftheworld has done terribly with her horses so far I can't have him at all and I am amazed he his 3rd in the betting. He also showed nothing at all at Carlisle on his debut for the yard.
 
Next in the betting we have the two Amie Waugh trained runners and she has chosen to ride Winged Crusader and I think that is interesting. Son Of  Suzie did win 3 weeks ago at Hutton Rudby, but he may have been slightly fortunate given a loose horse bumped into the 1st 3 runners after the last fence and the 3rd was hampered the worse. The time of that race though was 14 seconds slower than the race Winged Crusader was 2nd in on the same card. That wasn't a strong heat, but he is fairly consistent and it wouldn't surprise me if he kept going for minor honours.  
 
Killer Crow finished in front of Wonderoftheworld at Carlisle as he finished 6th have been up there. He didn't run too badly at Musselburgh the time before either and was an OK 3rd in the Grimthorpe Gold Cup last week. I'd have him a bit shorter in the betting than he currently is myself.
 
If you can get on with Skybet they are offering 2/1 Bob And Co winning by 10L or more and that seems a price worth taking to me as if he gets round safely he really ought to cover that margin with ease. I will chance a couple of small forecast plays with Winged Crusader and Killer Crow to finish 2nd.
 
Bob And Co to beat Winged Crusader 0.5pts f/c
Bob And Co to beat Killer Crow 0.5pts f/c
 
At Kempton Adrien Du Pont should win fairly comfortably as well. He beat a useful pointer with ease at Newbury and it's hard to see what beats him. I had thought Envoye Special might be a bit of a bridle horse, but he stormed to a good win at Kimble a couple of weeks ago. He was ridden differently that day as well from his 3 previous runs where as he was prominent rather than being held up. He was 4th at Stratford and Tom Barton was one place behind him in 5th, but he was over 20L behind him distance wise. Tom Barton probably paid for being part of a strong pace early doors as he got very tired. I'd probably have them a bit close together in the betting than they are, but I still think Envoye Special is the most likely to finish 2nd. Given the prices I don't see a betting opportunity in this contest.

I have now spotted a betting opportunity at Kempton, indeed it looks a fantastic opportunity.
Bet365 and Betfair have betting without the front two in the betting market and I can't believe Tom Barton is joint favourite at 13/8 with 365 and 6/4 with Betfair in this market as in my view he should be odds on. Sheer Poetry is the other at the head of the market and she hasn't run for 1096 days and her last win was off 105 back in October 2017. More importantly though is her new trainer has a terrible record with his horses in the past as they have mainly not even completed the course. Dissertation has been off the track for nearly 2 years and is pretty average, whilst the outsider has no chance. As I mention above Tom Barton did well enough at Stratford and his run at Wincanton the time before was decent enough in the context of the other 3 he faces in this market.
Tom Barton 4pts in the betting without front two market @ 13/8 with Bet365

Clearly it wasn't David Maxwell's finest hour at Wincanton and whilst his sit at Aintree was superb this unseat from Shantou Flyer was a shocker. To be fair I wasn't certain he was going to win as Keltus was still in contention jumping the last and we know Maxwell has looked unfit since his return. I'm not really sure why Keltus had drifted out to 16/1 and I hadn't realised he had got so big until the SP's flashed across the screen during the race. In a match with the 3rd I'd have made him slight favourite over the two. Whatever happened it was a fine effort although Shantou Flyer clearly hasn't run up to form.
 
The Stratford race was really frustrating as Fishy Story lost so much ground by either jumping out to her right or a slow jump. She only lost by a length and you have to think a better round of jumping would have seen her win the race. Fair play to the winner though who was given a very good ride in what was basically a carbon copy performance of what he did over course and distance last month. He found himself outpaced and then stayed on with great effect after the last. Leaving the back I thought he was the main danger given what happened the last time and so it proved. Captain Buck's never really travelled that well and I think he's basically run his race because he wasn't beaten far at all.
 
We have two hunter chases this afternoon and we have two more long odds on Paul Nicholls favourites. Bob And Co is in my view the best hunter chaser in the country and if Maxwell stays on he should win by a long margin. I guess after today that is a bigger if than it ought to be, but this really ought to be his first winner back. As much as I am not the sort of punter who will get involved at 1/4 he should be way shorter than that and if he doesn't win by a long way or without coming out of 2nd gear then it will be disappointing.
 
In theory Black River should come 2nd, but this is his first run for over a year and his first up record isn't the best. He pulled up first time out last season and then went onto land a hat-trick although the last of those was in a match. I just wonder if he might need this especially now he is 12 and there could be value in taking him on.
 
Given the trainer of Wonderoftheworld has done terribly with her horses so far I can't have him at all and I am amazed he his 3rd in the betting. He also showed nothing at all at Carlisle on his debut for the yard.
 
Next in the betting we have the two Amie Waugh trained runners and she has chosen to ride Winged Crusader and I think that is interesting. Son Of  Suzie did win 3 weeks ago at Hutton Rudby, but he may have been slightly fortunate given a loose horse bumped into the 1st 3 runners after the last fence and the 3rd was hampered the worse. The time of that race though was 14 seconds slower than the race Winged Crusader was 2nd in on the same card. That wasn't a strong heat, but he is fairly consistent and it wouldn't surprise me if he kept going for minor honours.  
 
Killer Crow finished in front of Wonderoftheworld at Carlisle as he finished 6th have been up there. He didn't run too badly at Musselburgh the time before either and was an OK 3rd in the Grimthorpe Gold Cup last week. I'd have him a bit shorter in the betting than he currently is myself.
 
If you can get on with Skybet they are offering 2/1 Bob And Co winning by 10L or more and that seems a price worth taking to me as if he gets round safely he really ought to cover that margin with ease. I will chance a couple of small forecast plays with Winged Crusader and Killer Crow to finish 2nd.
 
Bob And Co to beat Winged Crusader 0.5pts f/c
Bob And Co to beat Killer Crow 0.5pts f/c
 
At Kempton Adrien Du Pont should win fairly comfortably as well. He beat a useful pointer with ease at Newbury and it's hard to see what beats him. I had thought Envoye Special might be a bit of a bridle horse, but he stormed to a good win at Kimble a couple of weeks ago. He was ridden differently that day as well from his 3 previous runs where as he was prominent rather than being held up. He was 4th at Stratford and Tom Barton was one place behind him in 5th, but he was over 20L behind him distance wise. Tom Barton probably paid for being part of a strong pace early doors as he got very tired. I'd probably have them a bit close together in the betting than they are, but I still think Envoye Special is the most likely to finish 2nd. Given the prices I don't see a betting opportunity in this contest.

I have now spotted a betting opportunity at Kempton, indeed it looks a fantastic opportunity.
Bet365 and Betfair have betting without the front two in the betting market and I can't believe Tom Barton is joint favourite at 13/8 with 365 and 6/4 with Betfair in this market as in my view he should be odds on. Sheer Poetry is the other at the head of the market and she hasn't run for 1096 days and her last win was off 105 back in October 2017. More importantly though is her new trainer has a terrible record with his horses in the past as they have mainly not even completed the course. Dissertation has been off the track for nearly 2 years and is pretty average, whilst the outsider has no chance. As I mention above Tom Barton did well enough at Stratford and his run at Wincanton the time before was decent enough in the context of the other 3 he faces in this market.
Tom Barton 4pts in the betting without front two market @ 13/8 with Bet365

I have now spotted a betting opportunity at Kempton, indeed it looks a fantastic opportunity.
Bet365 and Betfair have betting without the front two in the betting market and I can't believe Tom Barton is joint favourite at 13/8 with 365 and 6/4 with Betfair in this market as in my view he should be odds on. Sheer Poetry is the other at the head of the market and she hasn't run for 1096 days and her last win was off 105 back in October 2017. More importantly though is her new trainer has a terrible record with his horses in the past as they have mainly not even completed the course. Dissertation has been off the track for nearly 2 years and is pretty average, whilst the outsider has no chance. As I mention above Tom Barton did well enough at Stratford and his run at Wincanton the time before was decent enough in the context of the other 3 he faces in this market.
Tom Barton 4pts in the betting without front two market @ 13/8 with Bet365

Clearly it wasn't David Maxwell's finest hour at Wincanton and whilst his sit at Aintree was superb this unseat from Shantou Flyer was a shocker. To be fair I wasn't certain he was going to win as Keltus was still in contention jumping the last and we know Maxwell has looked unfit since his return. I'm not really sure why Keltus had drifted out to 16/1 and I hadn't realised he had got so big until the SP's flashed across the screen during the race. In a match with the 3rd I'd have made him slight favourite over the two. Whatever happened it was a fine effort although Shantou Flyer clearly hasn't run up to form.
 
The Stratford race was really frustrating as Fishy Story lost so much ground by either jumping out to her right or a slow jump. She only lost by a length and you have to think a better round of jumping would have seen her win the race. Fair play to the winner though who was given a very good ride in what was basically a carbon copy performance of what he did over course and distance last month. He found himself outpaced and then stayed on with great effect after the last. Leaving the back I thought he was the main danger given what happened the last time and so it proved. Captain Buck's never really travelled that well and I think he's basically run his race because he wasn't beaten far at all.
 
We have two hunter chases this afternoon and we have two more long odds on Paul Nicholls favourites. Bob And Co is in my view the best hunter chaser in the country and if Maxwell stays on he should win by a long margin. I guess after today that is a bigger if than it ought to be, but this really ought to be his first winner back. As much as I am not the sort of punter who will get involved at 1/4 he should be way shorter than that and if he doesn't win by a long way or without coming out of 2nd gear then it will be disappointing.
 
In theory Black River should come 2nd, but this is his first run for over a year and his first up record isn't the best. He pulled up first time out last season and then went onto land a hat-trick although the last of those was in a match. I just wonder if he might need this especially now he is 12 and there could be value in taking him on.
 
Given the trainer of Wonderoftheworld has done terribly with her horses so far I can't have him at all and I am amazed he his 3rd in the betting. He also showed nothing at all at Carlisle on his debut for the yard.
 
Next in the betting we have the two Amie Waugh trained runners and she has chosen to ride Winged Crusader and I think that is interesting. Son Of  Suzie did win 3 weeks ago at Hutton Rudby, but he may have been slightly fortunate given a loose horse bumped into the 1st 3 runners after the last fence and the 3rd was hampered the worse. The time of that race though was 14 seconds slower than the race Winged Crusader was 2nd in on the same card. That wasn't a strong heat, but he is fairly consistent and it wouldn't surprise me if he kept going for minor honours.  
 
Killer Crow finished in front of Wonderoftheworld at Carlisle as he finished 6th have been up there. He didn't run too badly at Musselburgh the time before either and was an OK 3rd in the Grimthorpe Gold Cup last week. I'd have him a bit shorter in the betting than he currently is myself.
 
If you can get on with Skybet they are offering 2/1 Bob And Co winning by 10L or more and that seems a price worth taking to me as if he gets round safely he really ought to cover that margin with ease. I will chance a couple of small forecast plays with Winged Crusader and Killer Crow to finish 2nd.
 
Bob And Co to beat Winged Crusader 0.5pts f/c
Bob And Co to beat Killer Crow 0.5pts f/c
 
At Kempton Adrien Du Pont should win fairly comfortably as well. He beat a useful pointer with ease at Newbury and it's hard to see what beats him. I had thought Envoye Special might be a bit of a bridle horse, but he stormed to a good win at Kimble a couple of weeks ago. He was ridden differently that day as well from his 3 previous runs where as he was prominent rather than being held up. He was 4th at Stratford and Tom Barton was one place behind him in 5th, but he was over 20L behind him distance wise. Tom Barton probably paid for being part of a strong pace early doors as he got very tired. I'd probably have them a bit close together in the betting than they are, but I still think Envoye Special is the most likely to finish 2nd. Given the prices I don't see a betting opportunity in this contest.

Clearly it wasn't David Maxwell's finest hour at Wincanton and whilst his sit at Aintree was superb this unseat from Shantou Flyer was a shocker. To be fair I wasn't certain he was going to win as Keltus was still in contention jumping the last and we know Maxwell has looked unfit since his return. I'm not really sure why Keltus had drifted out to 16/1 and I hadn't realised he had got so big until the SP's flashed across the screen during the race. In a match with the 3rd I'd have made him slight favourite over the two. Whatever happened it was a fine effort although Shantou Flyer clearly hasn't run up to form.
 
The Stratford race was really frustrating as Fishy Story lost so much ground by either jumping out to her right or a slow jump. She only lost by a length and you have to think a better round of jumping would have seen her win the race. Fair play to the winner though who was given a very good ride in what was basically a carbon copy performance of what he did over course and distance last month. He found himself outpaced and then stayed on with great effect after the last. Leaving the back I thought he was the main danger given what happened the last time and so it proved. Captain Buck's never really travelled that well and I think he's basically run his race because he wasn't beaten far at all.
 
We have two hunter chases this afternoon and we have two more long odds on Paul Nicholls favourites. Bob And Co is in my view the best hunter chaser in the country and if Maxwell stays on he should win by a long margin. I guess after today that is a bigger if than it ought to be, but this really ought to be his first winner back. As much as I am not the sort of punter who will get involved at 1/4 he should be way shorter than that and if he doesn't win by a long way or without coming out of 2nd gear then it will be disappointing.
 
In theory Black River should come 2nd, but this is his first run for over a year and his first up record isn't the best. He pulled up first time out last season and then went onto land a hat-trick although the last of those was in a match. I just wonder if he might need this especially now he is 12 and there could be value in taking him on.
 
Given the trainer of Wonderoftheworld has done terribly with her horses so far I can't have him at all and I am amazed he his 3rd in the betting. He also showed nothing at all at Carlisle on his debut for the yard.
 
Next in the betting we have the two Amie Waugh trained runners and she has chosen to ride Winged Crusader and I think that is interesting. Son Of  Suzie did win 3 weeks ago at Hutton Rudby, but he may have been slightly fortunate given a loose horse bumped into the 1st 3 runners after the last fence and the 3rd was hampered the worse. The time of that race though was 14 seconds slower than the race Winged Crusader was 2nd in on the same card. That wasn't a strong heat, but he is fairly consistent and it wouldn't surprise me if he kept going for minor honours.  
 
Killer Crow finished in front of Wonderoftheworld at Carlisle as he finished 6th have been up there. He didn't run too badly at Musselburgh the time before either and was an OK 3rd in the Grimthorpe Gold Cup last week. I'd have him a bit shorter in the betting than he currently is myself.
 
If you can get on with Skybet they are offering 2/1 Bob And Co winning by 10L or more and that seems a price worth taking to me as if he gets round safely he really ought to cover that margin with ease. I will chance a couple of small forecast plays with Winged Crusader and Killer Crow to finish 2nd.
 
Bob And Co to beat Winged Crusader 0.5pts f/c
Bob And Co to beat Killer Crow 0.5pts f/c
 
At Kempton Adrien Du Pont should win fairly comfortably as well. He beat a useful pointer with ease at Newbury and it's hard to see what beats him. I had thought Envoye Special might be a bit of a bridle horse, but he stormed to a good win at Kimble a couple of weeks ago. He was ridden differently that day as well from his 3 previous runs where as he was prominent rather than being held up. He was 4th at Stratford and Tom Barton was one place behind him in 5th, but he was over 20L behind him distance wise. Tom Barton probably paid for being part of a strong pace early doors as he got very tired. I'd probably have them a bit close together in the betting than they are, but I still think Envoye Special is the most likely to finish 2nd. Given the prices I don't see a betting opportunity in this contest.

Clearly it wasn't David Maxwell's finest hour at Wincanton and whilst his sit at Aintree was superb this unseat from Shantou Flyer was a shocker. To be fair I wasn't certain he was going to win as Keltus was still in contention jumping the last and we know Maxwell has looked unfit since his return. I'm not really sure why Keltus had drifted out to 16/1 and I hadn't realised he had got so big until the SP's flashed across the screen during the race. In a match with the 3rd I'd have made him slight favourite over the two. Whatever happened it was a fine effort although Shantou Flyer clearly hasn't run up to form.
 
The Stratford race was really frustrating as Fishy Story lost so much ground by either jumping out to her right or a slow jump. She only lost by a length and you have to think a better round of jumping would have seen her win the race. Fair play to the winner though who was given a very good ride in what was basically a carbon copy performance of what he did over course and distance last month. He found himself outpaced and then stayed on with great effect after the last. Leaving the back I thought he was the main danger given what happened the last time and so it proved. Captain Buck's never really travelled that well and I think he's basically run his race because he wasn't beaten far at all.
 
We have two hunter chases this afternoon and we have two more long odds on Paul Nicholls favourites. Bob And Co is in my view the best hunter chaser in the country and if Maxwell stays on he should win by a long margin. I guess after today that is a bigger if than it ought to be, but this really ought to be his first winner back. As much as I am not the sort of punter who will get involved at 1/4 he should be way shorter than that and if he doesn't win by a long way or without coming out of 2nd gear then it will be disappointing.
 
In theory Black River should come 2nd, but this is his first run for over a year and his first up record isn't the best. He pulled up first time out last season and then went onto land a hat-trick although the last of those was in a match. I just wonder if he might need this especially now he is 12 and there could be value in taking him on.
 
Given the trainer of Wonderoftheworld has done terribly with her horses so far I can't have him at all and I am amazed he his 3rd in the betting. He also showed nothing at all at Carlisle on his debut for the yard.
 
Next in the betting we have the two Amie Waugh trained runners and she has chosen to ride Winged Crusader and I think that is interesting. Son Of  Suzie did win 3 weeks ago at Hutton Rudby, but he may have been slightly fortunate given a loose horse bumped into the 1st 3 runners after the last fence and the 3rd was hampered the worse. The time of that race though was 14 seconds slower than the race Winged Crusader was 2nd in on the same card. That wasn't a strong heat, but he is fairly consistent and it wouldn't surprise me if he kept going for minor honours.  
 
Killer Crow finished in front of Wonderoftheworld at Carlisle as he finished 6th have been up there. He didn't run too badly at Musselburgh the time before either and was an OK 3rd in the Grimthorpe Gold Cup last week. I'd have him a bit shorter in the betting than he currently is myself.
 
If you can get on with Skybet they are offering 2/1 Bob And Co winning by 10L or more and that seems a price worth taking to me as if he gets round safely he really ought to cover that margin with ease. I will chance a couple of small forecast plays with Winged Crusader and Killer Crow to finish 2nd.
 
Bob And Co to beat Winged Crusader 0.5pts f/c
Bob And Co to beat Killer Crow 0.5pts f/c
 
At Kempton Adrien Du Pont should win fairly comfortably as well. He beat a useful pointer with ease at Newbury and it's hard to see what beats him. I had thought Envoye Special might be a bit of a bridle horse, but he stormed to a good win at Kimble a couple of weeks ago. He was ridden differently that day as well from his 3 previous runs where as he was prominent rather than being held up. He was 4th at Stratford and Tom Barton was one place behind him in 5th, but he was over 20L behind him distance wise. Tom Barton probably paid for being part of a strong pace early doors as he got very tired. I'd probably have them a bit close together in the betting than they are, but I still think Envoye Special is the most likely to finish 2nd. Given the prices I don't see a betting opportunity in this contest.

Granted he made harder work of it than I thought he would, but Chase Me got the job done on Friday night. It was a good bit of placing and as I said pre-race it just showed how weak the race was that he was odds on. The 4/5 SP was a gift. Interestingly after the race his jockey mentioned that he would have been better in a bigger field and that he was more dominant than it actually looked watching on. If he wins another hunter chase I will be amazed although he could be worth trying in a handicap hurdle.
Onto this afternoon's action and I can't really see a betting opportunity in the Wincanton contest. Shantou Flyer was very good at Cheltenham and really should have way too much for his rivals here. It also shouldn't matter that his jockey is still finding his fitness. I don't really have a strong view on who will come 2nd either as Keltus and Minella Daddy should both improve for the run after long lay offs.
The Stratford race is much more interesting from a betting point of view. Captain Buck's heads the market after bolting up at Musselburgh last time, but this is a stronger contest for me and will be a much sterner test. He did win over course and distance in July, but that did only come off a mark of 116. He could be good enough, but he has just quirks and at short odds I will take him on. 
On a line through Bletchley Castle Captain Buck's has the beating of Zamparelli, but that horse will have preferred the shorter trip at Ludlow and I think he ran better that day than he did at Musselburgh. I thought Zamparelli was very impressive at Ludlow and he was well on top at the line. He seemed to enjoy being held up and coming past his rivals so the even smaller field round a tight track is a concern, but connections fancied him day and he is getting better with each start this season. On ratings there is nothing between him and Captain Buck's and I think Zamparelli can win again.
I'm Wiser Now was given a superb ride from Liam Harrison over course and distance last time to finally break his maiden tag. He also benefitted from the race falling apart around him as Golden Tobouggan got buzzed up at the start and was taken on for the lead. Maybe now he's got his head in front he will go on with it, but he wouldn't be for me.
On the face of it the other two shouldn't have much of a chance, but I also want Fishy Story onside. For some reason she was held up at Ludlow, but I am hoping that they go back to the tactics they used in the two novice hurdles and make the running with her. If they do that then she looks to be the only pace in the race and she is good enough to possibly take advantage of that fact. She gave it a very good go from the front on the 2nd of those hurdle runs and she has put in impressive front running efforts in points as well. The ground is ideal for her and she travelled pretty well at Ludlow last month before fading. Given she had a wind op a few days after that run she obviously made a noise. If that's worked then she should see her race out better here and she might prove hard to catch. I think she ought to be at least half the price she currently is so looks good value.
Zamparelli 1pt @ 2/1 with everyone
Fishy Story 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365

I didn't get round to previewing the two hurdle races at Hamilton last Sunday, but ex Irish horse Valac was impressive in the maiden hurdle and is one to keep an eye on. There are 5 jumps races at Pakenham in the early hours of Sunday morning.
Race 1 (3.40am)
This doesn't look a strong maiden hurdle contest and there is every chance it will go to the best of these on the flat Budd Fox. He has been in good form on the level and was 2nd in a BM70 at Sandown last time out. He trialled over hurdles last week and I was very impressed with his technique over the obstacles. He looks the one to beat for me. I'm surprised Referee is double figures. He had only won once prior to this season, but he has gone and won 2 picnic races. He had 3 hurdle runs in 2018 and was 2nd once at 60/1 but he has gone over fences the last couple of years and although he has yet to win he was 2nd twice and 3rd once last season. He has had a recent hurdle trial and he jumped well so going back over the smaller obstacles shouldn't be an issue. Now he's won again it might mean he has improved and he is certainly in better form albeit at a low level than pretty much all these. Manning Road has been running well on the flat, but she has shown little over hurdles so far.
Budd Fox 2pts @ 1.9 with Bet365
Referee 0.5pts win @ 11 and 0.5pts place @ 3.2 with Bet365
Race 2 (4.20am)
Saunter Boy is a very short price here, but he really ought to win. He looked good at Casterton winning winning on his hurdles debut and was then 2nd on the final day of the season at Ballarat when he got into a pace duel for the lead which didn't help him. He ran well at Bendigo on the flat recently when 3rd in a BM84. The Statesman was 9th in that contest and was 3rd in all 3 hurdles starts last year. He is solid enough, but I'd be a bit surprised if he beat Saunter Boy.
No bet
Race 3 (5am)
The feature hurdle race is the MJ Bourke Hurdle and it looks a really interesting contest. Runaway won race 2 on the card last year on the back of landing a maiden hurdle. He had 3 good 2nds after that including in the Galleywood and the Australian hurdle. On his last hurdle start in pulled up in July, but he had been in a duel for the lead and that didn't help him at all. He won a BM84 at Flemington in February and was 3rd in the Stoney Creek Cup last time. He has had a couple of hurdle trials since and has won both so he seems in very good form. Instigator broke his maiden tag over hurdles in the JJ Houlahan at Ballarat but that was the race Saunter Boy got into a pace duel up front and I think he just got the best ride in the race rather than being the best horse. He has had 2 average flat runs this year. Robbies Star was 2nd in this last year and then finished close to Runaway when 4th in the Galleywood and 3rd in the Australian Hurdle. He surprised connections when winning a BM78 at Ballarat last week, but it showed he was in good form and this hold up horse might have improved from last season. Double Bluff looked very good at Warrnambool, but he jumped terribly at Oakbank last time. If he jumps better he could play a part in the finish. Hierarchal won well at Terang, but the way the race was run really suited him and it wasn't a strong contest. He has been back at the picnics since finishing 2nd. Riding High won the maiden on this card last year and then followed up at Warrnambool although he was a well beaten 7th at Sandown after that. He has had 4 flat runs and 2 hurdle trials this year and won a BM58 at Werribee at the start of the month.
It looks to me like Runaway will get a fairly easy time of things out in front and that for me tips things in his favour. I want to cover Robbies Star as well as he has been close to Runaway twice before and clearly is forward as his flat win showed last week. Riding High would be next in for me, but it is a fairly open race.
Runaway 1pt @ 2.4 with Bet365
Robbies Star 0.5pts @ 4 with Bet365
Race 4 (5.40am)
There was a big question mark about if Historic would be fit enough at Oakbank and I don't think he was. He had another trial last week and he should strip fitter now and has a leading chance here. Jamieson was 2nd in a chase at Coleraine last year and although he was 5th of 6 at Terang he was only beaten 3.4L. Chenners was one place in front of him that day and was 2nd at Oakbank. No doubt he will run a solid race. Rexmont has had 3 3rds over hurdles this season and he likes to get on with it. This is his chase debut and I was impressed with how he jumped them in a recent trial. I think there is every chance he can improve for going over fences and he is the main pick in what isn't a strong contest. I will also cover Historic who should go close as long as he doesn't need another run for fitness.
Rexmont 1pt @ 2.5 with Bet365
Historic 0.5pts @ 5 with Bet365
Race 5 (6.20am)
The JEH Spencer Memorial is the feature chase on the card. My King's Counsel won that Terang contest I mentioned above and he hated Oakbank last time. He should do better here although that Terang contest wasn't a strong race. Lucques was 2nd in that Terang race with Zataglio back in 4th having been in front of Lucques at Warrnambook when winning. Lucques was again in front Zataglio at Oakbank in the Van Doussa when he came 3rd. I expect Lucques to beat him again and run another solid race. My Four Oh Nine has yet to win over hurdles or fences but has run some good races in defeat. He missed all of last year and has only had a trial and flat run last month when he got very tired at Oakbank. I suspect he will come on again for another run. I am keen on Napoleon here though who has been very consistent in big races in New Zealand. He has had 3 trials and 2 flat races in Australia which should have got him spot on for this. He also has a very good 3rd up record. I think he can come and beat the other three who have been racing against one another.
Napoleon 2.5pts @ 3.7 with Bet365

Granted he made harder work of it than I thought he would, but Chase Me got the job done on Friday night. It was a good bit of placing and as I said pre-race it just showed how weak the race was that he was odds on. The 4/5 SP was a gift. Interestingly after the race his jockey mentioned that he would have been better in a bigger field and that he was more dominant than it actually looked watching on. If he wins another hunter chase I will be amazed although he could be worth trying in a handicap hurdle.
Onto this afternoon's action and I can't really see a betting opportunity in the Wincanton contest. Shantou Flyer was very good at Cheltenham and really should have way too much for his rivals here. It also shouldn't matter that his jockey is still finding his fitness. I don't really have a strong view on who will come 2nd either as Keltus and Minella Daddy should both improve for the run after long lay offs.
The Stratford race is much more interesting from a betting point of view. Captain Buck's heads the market after bolting up at Musselburgh last time, but this is a stronger contest for me and will be a much sterner test. He did win over course and distance in July, but that did only come off a mark of 116. He could be good enough, but he has just quirks and at short odds I will take him on. 
On a line through Bletchley Castle Captain Buck's has the beating of Zamparelli, but that horse will have preferred the shorter trip at Ludlow and I think he ran better that day than he did at Musselburgh. I thought Zamparelli was very impressive at Ludlow and he was well on top at the line. He seemed to enjoy being held up and coming past his rivals so the even smaller field round a tight track is a concern, but connections fancied him day and he is getting better with each start this season. On ratings there is nothing between him and Captain Buck's and I think Zamparelli can win again.
I'm Wiser Now was given a superb ride from Liam Harrison over course and distance last time to finally break his maiden tag. He also benefitted from the race falling apart around him as Golden Tobouggan got buzzed up at the start and was taken on for the lead. Maybe now he's got his head in front he will go on with it, but he wouldn't be for me.
On the face of it the other two shouldn't have much of a chance, but I also want Fishy Story onside. For some reason she was held up at Ludlow, but I am hoping that they go back to the tactics they used in the two novice hurdles and make the running with her. If they do that then she looks to be the only pace in the race and she is good enough to possibly take advantage of that fact. She gave it a very good go from the front on the 2nd of those hurdle runs and she has put in impressive front running efforts in points as well. The ground is ideal for her and she travelled pretty well at Ludlow last month before fading. Given she had a wind op a few days after that run she obviously made a noise. If that's worked then she should see her race out better here and she might prove hard to catch. I think she ought to be at least half the price she currently is so looks good value.
Zamparelli 1pt @ 2/1 with everyone
Fishy Story 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365

I didn't get round to previewing the two hurdle races at Hamilton last Sunday, but ex Irish horse Valac was impressive in the maiden hurdle and is one to keep an eye on. There are 5 jumps races at Pakenham in the early hours of Sunday morning.
Race 1 (3.40am)
This doesn't look a strong maiden hurdle contest and there is every chance it will go to the best of these on the flat Budd Fox. He has been in good form on the level and was 2nd in a BM70 at Sandown last time out. He trialled over hurdles last week and I was very impressed with his technique over the obstacles. He looks the one to beat for me. I'm surprised Referee is double figures. He had only won once prior to this season, but he has gone and won 2 picnic races. He had 3 hurdle runs in 2018 and was 2nd once at 60/1 but he has gone over fences the last couple of years and although he has yet to win he was 2nd twice and 3rd once last season. He has had a recent hurdle trial and he jumped well so going back over the smaller obstacles shouldn't be an issue. Now he's won again it might mean he has improved and he is certainly in better form albeit at a low level than pretty much all these. Manning Road has been running well on the flat, but she has shown little over hurdles so far.
Budd Fox 2pts @ 1.9 with Bet365
Referee 0.5pts win @ 11 and 0.5pts place @ 3.2 with Bet365
Race 2 (4.20am)
Saunter Boy is a very short price here, but he really ought to win. He looked good at Casterton winning winning on his hurdles debut and was then 2nd on the final day of the season at Ballarat when he got into a pace duel for the lead which didn't help him. He ran well at Bendigo on the flat recently when 3rd in a BM84. The Statesman was 9th in that contest and was 3rd in all 3 hurdles starts last year. He is solid enough, but I'd be a bit surprised if he beat Saunter Boy.
No bet
Race 3 (5am)
The feature hurdle race is the MJ Bourke Hurdle and it looks a really interesting contest. Runaway won race 2 on the card last year on the back of landing a maiden hurdle. He had 3 good 2nds after that including in the Galleywood and the Australian hurdle. On his last hurdle start in pulled up in July, but he had been in a duel for the lead and that didn't help him at all. He won a BM84 at Flemington in February and was 3rd in the Stoney Creek Cup last time. He has had a couple of hurdle trials since and has won both so he seems in very good form. Instigator broke his maiden tag over hurdles in the JJ Houlahan at Ballarat but that was the race Saunter Boy got into a pace duel up front and I think he just got the best ride in the race rather than being the best horse. He has had 2 average flat runs this year. Robbies Star was 2nd in this last year and then finished close to Runaway when 4th in the Galleywood and 3rd in the Australian Hurdle. He surprised connections when winning a BM78 at Ballarat last week, but it showed he was in good form and this hold up horse might have improved from last season. Double Bluff looked very good at Warrnambool, but he jumped terribly at Oakbank last time. If he jumps better he could play a part in the finish. Hierarchal won well at Terang, but the way the race was run really suited him and it wasn't a strong contest. He has been back at the picnics since finishing 2nd. Riding High won the maiden on this card last year and then followed up at Warrnambool although he was a well beaten 7th at Sandown after that. He has had 4 flat runs and 2 hurdle trials this year and won a BM58 at Werribee at the start of the month.
It looks to me like Runaway will get a fairly easy time of things out in front and that for me tips things in his favour. I want to cover Robbies Star as well as he has been close to Runaway twice before and clearly is forward as his flat win showed last week. Riding High would be next in for me, but it is a fairly open race.
Runaway 1pt @ 2.4 with Bet365
Robbies Star 0.5pts @ 4 with Bet365
Race 4 (5.40am)
There was a big question mark about if Historic would be fit enough at Oakbank and I don't think he was. He had another trial last week and he should strip fitter now and has a leading chance here. Jamieson was 2nd in a chase at Coleraine last year and although he was 5th of 6 at Terang he was only beaten 3.4L. Chenners was one place in front of him that day and was 2nd at Oakbank. No doubt he will run a solid race. Rexmont has had 3 3rds over hurdles this season and he likes to get on with it. This is his chase debut and I was impressed with how he jumped them in a recent trial. I think there is every chance he can improve for going over fences and he is the main pick in what isn't a strong contest. I will also cover Historic who should go close as long as he doesn't need another run for fitness.
Rexmont 1pt @ 2.5 with Bet365
Historic 0.5pts @ 5 with Bet365
Race 5 (6.20am)
The JEH Spencer Memorial is the feature chase on the card. My King's Counsel won that Terang contest I mentioned above and he hated Oakbank last time. He should do better here although that Terang contest wasn't a strong race. Lucques was 2nd in that Terang race with Zataglio back in 4th having been in front of Lucques at Warrnambook when winning. Lucques was again in front Zataglio at Oakbank in the Van Doussa when he came 3rd. I expect Lucques to beat him again and run another solid race. My Four Oh Nine has yet to win over hurdles or fences but has run some good races in defeat. He missed all of last year and has only had a trial and flat run last month when he got very tired at Oakbank. I suspect he will come on again for another run. I am keen on Napoleon here though who has been very consistent in big races in New Zealand. He has had 3 trials and 2 flat races in Australia which should have got him spot on for this. He also has a very good 3rd up record. I think he can come and beat the other three who have been racing against one another.
Napoleon 2.5pts @ 3.7 with Bet365

This has to be a very strong contender for worst hunter chase ever run. Fair play to connections for running in this rather than a point because even last place gets £240 and the two no hopers would struggle to win that in a point. Starweld has a point rating of 69 which is the lowest I can remember of any horse who has gone hunter chasing. Granted I haven't looked at every no hopers rating this season and he did run at Stratford last month at odds of 250/1. Milberry did at least manage to finish at Larkhill which is something had been struggling to in points, but he was last beaten 57L and he needs something to happen to the other two to win.
It really is saying something when the 2nd highest rated horse in the race is one who won a weak mares maiden last time. That was at Barbury in December and she did win very easily, but the other fancied horses all disappointed and the 2nd was a 50/1 shot. She had shown ability having finished a close 2nd in two point bumpers in the 2019 season and she finished 2nd in the same race she won this season last season. A horse called Lady Sally beat her that day and she has gone under rules since. She actually runs at Bangor tomorrow and is currently rated 97 and has shown the odd glimmer of promise, but most of her runs she hasn't run anywhere near that mark so I wouldn't want to say that So Socksy would be able to run to a mark that high. She unseated on her next start and then in her only run so far over 3m she ran very poorly when pulling up. It was probably too bad to be true, but it does mean that the trip is an unknown. With the mares allowance and the jockey's claim she does get a stone from Chase Me. She's unexposed, but her level of form so far is a long way behind Cash Me's.
I never thought I would see the day where Chase Me was favourite for a hunter chase. His pointing form is solid having won 5 on the bounce from finally losing his maiden tag 2 years ago to dead heating at Chaddesley Corbett in December. He wouldn't have won his last point at Maisemore 2 weeks ago, but that was a strong race and he ran with credit until he unseated at 2 out. He's never looked like winning a hunter chase so far although he didn't run too badly in the John Corbet Cup in 2019 or at Stratford last March. You look at the winners of those hunter chases though and you realise that this contest is a million miles away from those. He has won twice on good to firm ground so that isn't an issue and he won't get a better opportunity to win a hunter chase. Zac Baker goes back on board after riding the winning of the Maisemore race last time and it's hard to see how he doesn't win. If this was a point I reckon he would be at least 1/3 and even at his current odds he looks value.
Chase Me 4pts @ 8/11 with Betfred