Darran

As well as the market getting the Warwick race wrong so did I. Killaro Boy never really looked like he was going to win although having said that the winner also didn't really look a likely winner until fairly late on either. I didn't think the Cheltenham form was up too much, but clearly I have to upgrade the front two from that contest on the back of this. I have to say though that the jockey switch has proved crucial as I don't think Sugar Baron's usual jockey would have won on him as he had a Gina special to thank for the success. Apparently he has the Aintree Foxhunter as a target, but I can't see him having anywhere near enough pace for that. Captain Cattistock ran well again to finish 2nd and Southfield Royale wasn't helped by that one coming across him on the home bend and would have finished closer apart from that. Optimised has clearly gone backwards and Dieu Vivant ran a total stinker.
We may only have 5 runners and as the market suggests only 3 can win, but it is still a fascinating contest. Jatiluwih was supposed to be Maxwell's Cheltenham horse this year, but that plan didn't work out and to be fair Bob And Co is the better horse anyway. He was an easy winner of his first point at Bishops Court, but I was not impressed with his jumping which is surprising given he has run over fences in France. He then went to Barbury and ran a stinker in the race Marcle Ridge won. To be fair to him that performance was clearly too bad to be true and he must be better than that. It will be interesting to see what he can do here against two good rivals.
The weather could play a big part in this contest, because there is plenty of rain due and I would imagine we will be looking at soft ground although I was surprised to still see it as good ground this morning. That probably isn't ideal for Marcle Ridge whose best form has come on better ground. There is no doubt in my mind that he put in the best performance on hunter chase night at Cheltenham last time and that was backed up on the clock as well. He proved that night that he doesn't have to make the running and the fact this is 2m7f rather than 3m will be in his favour as well. Tactics will be interesting because both he and Wishing And Hoping like to be prominent although I can't imagine they will go a crazy pace and I just wonder if that will play into Marcle Ridge's hands. I actually think his two runs on soft ground haven't actually been that bad. They went a crazy pace at Warwick when he ran on it earlier in the season and it was no surprise he wasn't able to see it out. I also wonder if he wasn't quite right given we didn't see him again until Cheltenham.
Wishing And Hoping does have form on soft ground although strangely connections took him out of a race at Catterick earlier in the season due to heavy ground. He did run a few days later at Haydock, but not surprisingly found Bob And Co too hot. That was probably his best run of the season as his win at Maisemore was workmanlike and he was then beaten by Premier Magic although that horse has done well since. He was a bit disappointing for me at Cheltenham though as I would have liked to have seen a bit more from him. He probably stays better than the other two so it would be interesting if Zac decided to make it a proper test, but I am not sure he will do that.
In my view Marcle Ridge has produced the best form so far this season and as long as it doesn't get really testing I think he will be OK on it as I can't see it being a strong test of stamina. If it did get too soft then I think they would pull him out anyway. I've not really been convinced with Maxwell's riding all season which is a concern for the favourite and I would have like to see him jump better on his pointing debut as well. His form over hurdles and in France though was over shorter than this as well so I think he's worth taking on. So I am siding with Marcle Ridge.
Marcle Ridge 1pt @ 2/1 with everyone
 
The current stats for the season are 133.5pts staked and 154.49pts returned so basically a 21pt profit going into the final 13 races of the season, 7 of which will be at Stratford a week today.

As well as the market getting the Warwick race wrong so did I. Killaro Boy never really looked like he was going to win although having said that the winner also didn't really look a likely winner until fairly late on either. I didn't think the Cheltenham form was up too much, but clearly I have to upgrade the front two from that contest on the back of this. I have to say though that the jockey switch has proved crucial as I don't think Sugar Baron's usual jockey would have won on him as he had a Gina special to thank for the success. Apparently he has the Aintree Foxhunter as a target, but I can't see him having anywhere near enough pace for that. Captain Cattistock ran well again to finish 2nd and Southfield Royale wasn't helped by that one coming across him on the home bend and would have finished closer apart from that. Optimised has clearly gone backwards and Dieu Vivant ran a total stinker.
We may only have 5 runners and as the market suggests only 3 can win, but it is still a fascinating contest. Jatiluwih was supposed to be Maxwell's Cheltenham horse this year, but that plan didn't work out and to be fair Bob And Co is the better horse anyway. He was an easy winner of his first point at Bishops Court, but I was not impressed with his jumping which is surprising given he has run over fences in France. He then went to Barbury and ran a stinker in the race Marcle Ridge won. To be fair to him that performance was clearly too bad to be true and he must be better than that. It will be interesting to see what he can do here against two good rivals.
The weather could play a big part in this contest, because there is plenty of rain due and I would imagine we will be looking at soft ground although I was surprised to still see it as good ground this morning. That probably isn't ideal for Marcle Ridge whose best form has come on better ground. There is no doubt in my mind that he put in the best performance on hunter chase night at Cheltenham last time and that was backed up on the clock as well. He proved that night that he doesn't have to make the running and the fact this is 2m7f rather than 3m will be in his favour as well. Tactics will be interesting because both he and Wishing And Hoping like to be prominent although I can't imagine they will go a crazy pace and I just wonder if that will play into Marcle Ridge's hands. I actually think his two runs on soft ground haven't actually been that bad. They went a crazy pace at Warwick when he ran on it earlier in the season and it was no surprise he wasn't able to see it out. I also wonder if he wasn't quite right given we didn't see him again until Cheltenham.
Wishing And Hoping does have form on soft ground although strangely connections took him out of a race at Catterick earlier in the season due to heavy ground. He did run a few days later at Haydock, but not surprisingly found Bob And Co too hot. That was probably his best run of the season as his win at Maisemore was workmanlike and he was then beaten by Premier Magic although that horse has done well since. He was a bit disappointing for me at Cheltenham though as I would have liked to have seen a bit more from him. He probably stays better than the other two so it would be interesting if Zac decided to make it a proper test, but I am not sure he will do that.
In my view Marcle Ridge has produced the best form so far this season and as long as it doesn't get really testing I think he will be OK on it as I can't see it being a strong test of stamina. If it did get too soft then I think they would pull him out anyway. I've not really been convinced with Maxwell's riding all season which is a concern for the favourite and I would have like to see him jump better on his pointing debut as well. His form over hurdles and in France though was over shorter than this as well so I think he's worth taking on. So I am siding with Marcle Ridge.
Marcle Ridge 1pt @ 2/1 with everyone
 
The current stats for the season are 133.5pts staked and 154.49pts returned so basically a 21pt profit going into the final 13 races of the season, 7 of which will be at Stratford a week today.

As well as the market getting the Warwick race wrong so did I. Killaro Boy never really looked like he was going to win although having said that the winner also didn't really look a likely winner until fairly late on either. I didn't think the Cheltenham form was up too much, but clearly I have to upgrade the front two from that contest on the back of this. I have to say though that the jockey switch has proved crucial as I don't think Sugar Baron's usual jockey would have won on him as he had a Gina special to thank for the success. Apparently he has the Aintree Foxhunter as a target, but I can't see him having anywhere near enough pace for that. Captain Cattistock ran well again to finish 2nd and Southfield Royale wasn't helped by that one coming across him on the home bend and would have finished closer apart from that. Optimised has clearly gone backwards and Dieu Vivant ran a total stinker.
We may only have 5 runners and as the market suggests only 3 can win, but it is still a fascinating contest. Jatiluwih was supposed to be Maxwell's Cheltenham horse this year, but that plan didn't work out and to be fair Bob And Co is the better horse anyway. He was an easy winner of his first point at Bishops Court, but I was not impressed with his jumping which is surprising given he has run over fences in France. He then went to Barbury and ran a stinker in the race Marcle Ridge won. To be fair to him that performance was clearly too bad to be true and he must be better than that. It will be interesting to see what he can do here against two good rivals.
The weather could play a big part in this contest, because there is plenty of rain due and I would imagine we will be looking at soft ground although I was surprised to still see it as good ground this morning. That probably isn't ideal for Marcle Ridge whose best form has come on better ground. There is no doubt in my mind that he put in the best performance on hunter chase night at Cheltenham last time and that was backed up on the clock as well. He proved that night that he doesn't have to make the running and the fact this is 2m7f rather than 3m will be in his favour as well. Tactics will be interesting because both he and Wishing And Hoping like to be prominent although I can't imagine they will go a crazy pace and I just wonder if that will play into Marcle Ridge's hands. I actually think his two runs on soft ground haven't actually been that bad. They went a crazy pace at Warwick when he ran on it earlier in the season and it was no surprise he wasn't able to see it out. I also wonder if he wasn't quite right given we didn't see him again until Cheltenham.
Wishing And Hoping does have form on soft ground although strangely connections took him out of a race at Catterick earlier in the season due to heavy ground. He did run a few days later at Haydock, but not surprisingly found Bob And Co too hot. That was probably his best run of the season as his win at Maisemore was workmanlike and he was then beaten by Premier Magic although that horse has done well since. He was a bit disappointing for me at Cheltenham though as I would have liked to have seen a bit more from him. He probably stays better than the other two so it would be interesting if Zac decided to make it a proper test, but I am not sure he will do that.
In my view Marcle Ridge has produced the best form so far this season and as long as it doesn't get really testing I think he will be OK on it as I can't see it being a strong test of stamina. If it did get too soft then I think they would pull him out anyway. I've not really been convinced with Maxwell's riding all season which is a concern for the favourite and I would have like to see him jump better on his pointing debut as well. His form over hurdles and in France though was over shorter than this as well so I think he's worth taking on. So I am siding with Marcle Ridge.
Marcle Ridge 1pt @ 2/1 with everyone
 
The current stats for the season are 133.5pts staked and 154.49pts returned so basically a 21pt profit going into the final 13 races of the season, 7 of which will be at Stratford a week today.

I know it is easy to say after Green Winter won that I should have put him up in the outright market as well, but given I was keen on him finishing 3rd I should really have had a small bet on him e/w in the outright market as well just in case he won. He didn't always jump well, but he kept finding for Zac and we know he stays really well so it was no surprise he kept going despite the fact they seemed to be going a good pace in front. Dolphin Square loomed large turning for home, but his jumping wasn't great either and a poor jump at 2 out basically sealed his fate. Some people were saying Maxwell should have kick for home sooner, but I'm not sure we would have seen a different result because like I say the winner kept finding. They pulled miles clear of the rest who were actually headed by Right Of Reply as Tullys Touch paid for trying to keep up with the front two. I think we know his level after this. It was good to see Green Winter anyway because he has run so many good races in points that he deserved to land a hunter chase and at 13 he is clearly still as good as he ever was.
We move onto Warwick this afternoon and Cheltenham winner Captain Cattistock was heading the market last night, but is now on the drift. He hasn't always been easy to win with and he was idling on the run in at Cheltenham, but he never looked like being caught. Having said that you had a massive price outsider finishing 2nd and with the favourite falling and Ennistown blowing his chance at the first I do wonder what the form quite amounts to. My guess is they will be handy with him again and use his stamina. He might well win, but he is priced up tight enough for me with those doubts about the worth of the Cheltenham form.
Sugar Baron is also coming from Cheltenham and he finished 2nd behind Monbeg Chit Chat. That for me wasn't a strong race and although the winner won a point on Saturday it wasn't an especially strong one and he was 1/4. He does have Gina on today and she won on him the only other time she rode him and they front two did pull well clear of the rest at Cheltenham, but ultimately I think the race fell to pieces.
Dieu Vivant is another horse who is very hard to win with and he got lucky in his hunter chase win last year. The handicap 2nd in February would be good enough to see him go fairly close in this, but his two hunter chase runs after that weren't good enough and I think he will need others to disappoint to win this.
Southfield Royale was firmly on the downgrade when he was last seen under rules in 2019 and he was missing for 2 years until winning a point at Mollington earlier in the month. I guess you have to give him credit for winning 1st up after such a long layoff, but this race is much tougher and I find it hard to fancy him.
Optimised was hugely disappointing when beaten 34L in the hunter chase Dieu Vivant won at Ludlow last year and he also has ground to make up on Captain Cattistock after finishing 6th behind him at Cheltenham. Given he had been 2nd in that race you can't say it was a lack of stamina that got him beat and I think basically he isn't as good as he was in 2019 when he landed a hunter chase at Bangor. If he can re-find that form than I can see why some might what to take a chance at a double figure price.
The two outsiders have little chance and so that brings me to the selection Killaro Boy. He was a very impressive winner of this when it was last staged in 2019 and I think he can hold onto his title. He has been beaten 22L in both his starts this year, his first since December 2019, but stumbled badly leaving the back straight at Leicester in the race won by Cat Tiger and he would have been closer that day if that hadn't happened. He then went to Aintree and he ran well enough to finish 7th, but he never really had the pace to get properly competitive. Given another month to get over that I think he will be primed for this and Zac is riding as well as ever this season as he showed last night. He's been popular in the market in the early hours of the morning, but I still think there is value in the price.
Killaro Boy 2pts @ 9/4 with Bet365

Tell me about it I couldn't believe that he had been backed at about 6.30 this morning. Very annoying!

I know it is easy to say after Green Winter won that I should have put him up in the outright market as well, but given I was keen on him finishing 3rd I should really have had a small bet on him e/w in the outright market as well just in case he won. He didn't always jump well, but he kept finding for Zac and we know he stays really well so it was no surprise he kept going despite the fact they seemed to be going a good pace in front. Dolphin Square loomed large turning for home, but his jumping wasn't great either and a poor jump at 2 out basically sealed his fate. Some people were saying Maxwell should have kick for home sooner, but I'm not sure we would have seen a different result because like I say the winner kept finding. They pulled miles clear of the rest who were actually headed by Right Of Reply as Tullys Touch paid for trying to keep up with the front two. I think we know his level after this. It was good to see Green Winter anyway because he has run so many good races in points that he deserved to land a hunter chase and at 13 he is clearly still as good as he ever was.
We move onto Warwick this afternoon and Cheltenham winner Captain Cattistock was heading the market last night, but is now on the drift. He hasn't always been easy to win with and he was idling on the run in at Cheltenham, but he never looked like being caught. Having said that you had a massive price outsider finishing 2nd and with the favourite falling and Ennistown blowing his chance at the first I do wonder what the form quite amounts to. My guess is they will be handy with him again and use his stamina. He might well win, but he is priced up tight enough for me with those doubts about the worth of the Cheltenham form.
Sugar Baron is also coming from Cheltenham and he finished 2nd behind Monbeg Chit Chat. That for me wasn't a strong race and although the winner won a point on Saturday it wasn't an especially strong one and he was 1/4. He does have Gina on today and she won on him the only other time she rode him and they front two did pull well clear of the rest at Cheltenham, but ultimately I think the race fell to pieces.
Dieu Vivant is another horse who is very hard to win with and he got lucky in his hunter chase win last year. The handicap 2nd in February would be good enough to see him go fairly close in this, but his two hunter chase runs after that weren't good enough and I think he will need others to disappoint to win this.
Southfield Royale was firmly on the downgrade when he was last seen under rules in 2019 and he was missing for 2 years until winning a point at Mollington earlier in the month. I guess you have to give him credit for winning 1st up after such a long layoff, but this race is much tougher and I find it hard to fancy him.
Optimised was hugely disappointing when beaten 34L in the hunter chase Dieu Vivant won at Ludlow last year and he also has ground to make up on Captain Cattistock after finishing 6th behind him at Cheltenham. Given he had been 2nd in that race you can't say it was a lack of stamina that got him beat and I think basically he isn't as good as he was in 2019 when he landed a hunter chase at Bangor. If he can re-find that form than I can see why some might what to take a chance at a double figure price.
The two outsiders have little chance and so that brings me to the selection Killaro Boy. He was a very impressive winner of this when it was last staged in 2019 and I think he can hold onto his title. He has been beaten 22L in both his starts this year, his first since December 2019, but stumbled badly leaving the back straight at Leicester in the race won by Cat Tiger and he would have been closer that day if that hadn't happened. He then went to Aintree and he ran well enough to finish 7th, but he never really had the pace to get properly competitive. Given another month to get over that I think he will be primed for this and Zac is riding as well as ever this season as he showed last night. He's been popular in the market in the early hours of the morning, but I still think there is value in the price.
Killaro Boy 2pts @ 9/4 with Bet365

I know it is easy to say after Green Winter won that I should have put him up in the outright market as well, but given I was keen on him finishing 3rd I should really have had a small bet on him e/w in the outright market as well just in case he won. He didn't always jump well, but he kept finding for Zac and we know he stays really well so it was no surprise he kept going despite the fact they seemed to be going a good pace in front. Dolphin Square loomed large turning for home, but his jumping wasn't great either and a poor jump at 2 out basically sealed his fate. Some people were saying Maxwell should have kick for home sooner, but I'm not sure we would have seen a different result because like I say the winner kept finding. They pulled miles clear of the rest who were actually headed by Right Of Reply as Tullys Touch paid for trying to keep up with the front two. I think we know his level after this. It was good to see Green Winter anyway because he has run so many good races in points that he deserved to land a hunter chase and at 13 he is clearly still as good as he ever was.
We move onto Warwick this afternoon and Cheltenham winner Captain Cattistock was heading the market last night, but is now on the drift. He hasn't always been easy to win with and he was idling on the run in at Cheltenham, but he never looked like being caught. Having said that you had a massive price outsider finishing 2nd and with the favourite falling and Ennistown blowing his chance at the first I do wonder what the form quite amounts to. My guess is they will be handy with him again and use his stamina. He might well win, but he is priced up tight enough for me with those doubts about the worth of the Cheltenham form.
Sugar Baron is also coming from Cheltenham and he finished 2nd behind Monbeg Chit Chat. That for me wasn't a strong race and although the winner won a point on Saturday it wasn't an especially strong one and he was 1/4. He does have Gina on today and she won on him the only other time she rode him and they front two did pull well clear of the rest at Cheltenham, but ultimately I think the race fell to pieces.
Dieu Vivant is another horse who is very hard to win with and he got lucky in his hunter chase win last year. The handicap 2nd in February would be good enough to see him go fairly close in this, but his two hunter chase runs after that weren't good enough and I think he will need others to disappoint to win this.
Southfield Royale was firmly on the downgrade when he was last seen under rules in 2019 and he was missing for 2 years until winning a point at Mollington earlier in the month. I guess you have to give him credit for winning 1st up after such a long layoff, but this race is much tougher and I find it hard to fancy him.
Optimised was hugely disappointing when beaten 34L in the hunter chase Dieu Vivant won at Ludlow last year and he also has ground to make up on Captain Cattistock after finishing 6th behind him at Cheltenham. Given he had been 2nd in that race you can't say it was a lack of stamina that got him beat and I think basically he isn't as good as he was in 2019 when he landed a hunter chase at Bangor. If he can re-find that form than I can see why some might what to take a chance at a double figure price.
The two outsiders have little chance and so that brings me to the selection Killaro Boy. He was a very impressive winner of this when it was last staged in 2019 and I think he can hold onto his title. He has been beaten 22L in both his starts this year, his first since December 2019, but stumbled badly leaving the back straight at Leicester in the race won by Cat Tiger and he would have been closer that day if that hadn't happened. He then went to Aintree and he ran well enough to finish 7th, but he never really had the pace to get properly competitive. Given another month to get over that I think he will be primed for this and Zac is riding as well as ever this season as he showed last night. He's been popular in the market in the early hours of the morning, but I still think there is value in the price.
Killaro Boy 2pts @ 9/4 with Bet365

A quick look back at Aintree's bumper on Friday and it was good to have the winner in Latitude although I have to say I think we got away with one as the 2nd was the best horse in the race. I think either side of the line and Foxinthebox would have won, but thankfully for us Latitude had his nose down where it mattered. To be fair to the winner he looks a promising horse and I can see him building on the promise he has shown so far next season, but he clearly knew his job unlike the 2nd. Foxinthebox had jumped terribly on his debut and then on Friday he was very green, but once the penny dropped he stayed on strongly to only just be denied. He looks a stayer in the making and has clearly got more learning to do, but he is one to keep a close eye in the future. Latenightrumble ran well in 3rd and they were miles clear of the other 3 which is why I think the form could be pretty strong.   Back to hunter chase action this evening with Huntingdon hosting their only one of the season and we have another Maxwell odds on favourite in the shape of Dolphin Square. I tried taking him on at Kelso, but he was much better than Right Of Reply at the line and as much as that one slowed right down I just can't see how Right Of Reply can reverse the form. I think Dolphin Square will improve for a bigger field and a longer trip and I find it hard to see him being beaten.   If there is one to beat him it is likely to be Tullys Touch who hacked up at Fakenham last time. He also goes up against the horse he beat last time as Laser Beam goes here, but again I just don't see the form being reversed. Tullys Touch had loads in hand at the line and he had beaten him at High Easter last month as well. He is probably still progressive and given how easy he won at Fakenham it is hard to know exactly how good he is, but he needs to find a lot for me to beat Dolphin Square. The handicapper gave him a mark of 105 after that win and to be honest that seems fair enough at the moment. I think he can finish 2nd to the favourite as he is open to a bit more improvement than Right Of Reply.   What really interests me though is the betting without the front two market as I like Green Winter. Laser Beam looked very one paced at High Easter and Fakenham behind Tullys Touch so he is opposable. Tangoed ran really well in her only hunter chase to date at Stratford 2 years ago. She was a close 3rd to Earth Leader which was a top effort, but then in December the same year she finished 35L behind him at Larkhill. She wasn't seen again until Kimble in November where she pulled up behind Porlock Bay. She was then off until April where she was a well beaten 7th 6 days before winning at Aldington. It was a big victory, but it was a weak race so I'm not sure she is as good as that Stratford run suggested she could be.   With Spanish Fleet and Babytaggle both looking like they will be outclassed that leaves us with Green Winter. He has only run in two hunter chases despite the fact he is 13 and they were in two renewals of the John Corbett Cup where he pulled up both times. He is a classy pointer though as he has shown over the years. Last year he finished a close 2nd to Shantou Flyer at Larkhill and was then 2nd to Chameron in the Coronation Gold Cup at the same venue. He wasn't seen again until 2 weeks ago when he was an 8L 2nd at Mollington, but the winner that day was landing a hat-trick so the form looks solid to me especially as he pulled well clear of the 3rd. He should come on for that and I think he only has Right Of Reply to beat in this market and I think he has a decent chance of doing so. Annoyingly he has been backed in the outright market so he is now favourite in the betting without the front two market, but I think there is still value in his price.   Dolphin Square to beat Tullys Touch 1pt fc Dolphin Square to beat Green Winter 0.5pts fc Green Winter betting without front 2 1.5pts @ 15/8 with Betfair  

Must admit I’m struggling to work out how you have come to the conclusion that Tully’s touch is a bet at the prices. The form he has shown so far is miles below what dolphin square has shown.

A quick look back at Aintree's bumper on Friday and it was good to have the winner in Latitude although I have to say I think we got away with one as the 2nd was the best horse in the race. I think either side of the line and Foxinthebox would have won, but thankfully for us Latitude had his nose down where it mattered. To be fair to the winner he looks a promising horse and I can see him building on the promise he has shown so far next season, but he clearly knew his job unlike the 2nd. Foxinthebox had jumped terribly on his debut and then on Friday he was very green, but once the penny dropped he stayed on strongly to only just be denied. He looks a stayer in the making and has clearly got more learning to do, but he is one to keep a close eye in the future. Latenightrumble ran well in 3rd and they were miles clear of the other 3 which is why I think the form could be pretty strong.   Back to hunter chase action this evening with Huntingdon hosting their only one of the season and we have another Maxwell odds on favourite in the shape of Dolphin Square. I tried taking him on at Kelso, but he was much better than Right Of Reply at the line and as much as that one slowed right down I just can't see how Right Of Reply can reverse the form. I think Dolphin Square will improve for a bigger field and a longer trip and I find it hard to see him being beaten.   If there is one to beat him it is likely to be Tullys Touch who hacked up at Fakenham last time. He also goes up against the horse he beat last time as Laser Beam goes here, but again I just don't see the form being reversed. Tullys Touch had loads in hand at the line and he had beaten him at High Easter last month as well. He is probably still progressive and given how easy he won at Fakenham it is hard to know exactly how good he is, but he needs to find a lot for me to beat Dolphin Square. The handicapper gave him a mark of 105 after that win and to be honest that seems fair enough at the moment. I think he can finish 2nd to the favourite as he is open to a bit more improvement than Right Of Reply.   What really interests me though is the betting without the front two market as I like Green Winter. Laser Beam looked very one paced at High Easter and Fakenham behind Tullys Touch so he is opposable. Tangoed ran really well in her only hunter chase to date at Stratford 2 years ago. She was a close 3rd to Earth Leader which was a top effort, but then in December the same year she finished 35L behind him at Larkhill. She wasn't seen again until Kimble in November where she pulled up behind Porlock Bay. She was then off until April where she was a well beaten 7th 6 days before winning at Aldington. It was a big victory, but it was a weak race so I'm not sure she is as good as that Stratford run suggested she could be.   With Spanish Fleet and Babytaggle both looking like they will be outclassed that leaves us with Green Winter. He has only run in two hunter chases despite the fact he is 13 and they were in two renewals of the John Corbett Cup where he pulled up both times. He is a classy pointer though as he has shown over the years. Last year he finished a close 2nd to Shantou Flyer at Larkhill and was then 2nd to Chameron in the Coronation Gold Cup at the same venue. He wasn't seen again until 2 weeks ago when he was an 8L 2nd at Mollington, but the winner that day was landing a hat-trick so the form looks solid to me especially as he pulled well clear of the 3rd. He should come on for that and I think he only has Right Of Reply to beat in this market and I think he has a decent chance of doing so. Annoyingly he has been backed in the outright market so he is now favourite in the betting without the front two market, but I think there is still value in his price.   Dolphin Square to beat Tullys Touch 1pt fc Dolphin Square to beat Green Winter 0.5pts fc Green Winter betting without front 2 1.5pts @ 15/8 with Betfair  

Must admit I’m struggling to work out how you have come to the conclusion that Tully’s touch is a bet at the prices. The form he has shown so far is miles below what dolphin square has shown.

A quick look back at Aintree's bumper on Friday and it was good to have the winner in Latitude although I have to say I think we got away with one as the 2nd was the best horse in the race. I think either side of the line and Foxinthebox would have won, but thankfully for us Latitude had his nose down where it mattered. To be fair to the winner he looks a promising horse and I can see him building on the promise he has shown so far next season, but he clearly knew his job unlike the 2nd. Foxinthebox had jumped terribly on his debut and then on Friday he was very green, but once the penny dropped he stayed on strongly to only just be denied. He looks a stayer in the making and has clearly got more learning to do, but he is one to keep a close eye in the future. Latenightrumble ran well in 3rd and they were miles clear of the other 3 which is why I think the form could be pretty strong.   Back to hunter chase action this evening with Huntingdon hosting their only one of the season and we have another Maxwell odds on favourite in the shape of Dolphin Square. I tried taking him on at Kelso, but he was much better than Right Of Reply at the line and as much as that one slowed right down I just can't see how Right Of Reply can reverse the form. I think Dolphin Square will improve for a bigger field and a longer trip and I find it hard to see him being beaten.   If there is one to beat him it is likely to be Tullys Touch who hacked up at Fakenham last time. He also goes up against the horse he beat last time as Laser Beam goes here, but again I just don't see the form being reversed. Tullys Touch had loads in hand at the line and he had beaten him at High Easter last month as well. He is probably still progressive and given how easy he won at Fakenham it is hard to know exactly how good he is, but he needs to find a lot for me to beat Dolphin Square. The handicapper gave him a mark of 105 after that win and to be honest that seems fair enough at the moment. I think he can finish 2nd to the favourite as he is open to a bit more improvement than Right Of Reply.   What really interests me though is the betting without the front two market as I like Green Winter. Laser Beam looked very one paced at High Easter and Fakenham behind Tullys Touch so he is opposable. Tangoed ran really well in her only hunter chase to date at Stratford 2 years ago. She was a close 3rd to Earth Leader which was a top effort, but then in December the same year she finished 35L behind him at Larkhill. She wasn't seen again until Kimble in November where she pulled up behind Porlock Bay. She was then off until April where she was a well beaten 7th 6 days before winning at Aldington. It was a big victory, but it was a weak race so I'm not sure she is as good as that Stratford run suggested she could be.   With Spanish Fleet and Babytaggle both looking like they will be outclassed that leaves us with Green Winter. He has only run in two hunter chases despite the fact he is 13 and they were in two renewals of the John Corbett Cup where he pulled up both times. He is a classy pointer though as he has shown over the years. Last year he finished a close 2nd to Shantou Flyer at Larkhill and was then 2nd to Chameron in the Coronation Gold Cup at the same venue. He wasn't seen again until 2 weeks ago when he was an 8L 2nd at Mollington, but the winner that day was landing a hat-trick so the form looks solid to me especially as he pulled well clear of the 3rd. He should come on for that and I think he only has Right Of Reply to beat in this market and I think he has a decent chance of doing so. Annoyingly he has been backed in the outright market so he is now favourite in the betting without the front two market, but I think there is still value in his price.   Dolphin Square to beat Tullys Touch 1pt fc Dolphin Square to beat Green Winter 0.5pts fc Green Winter betting without front 2 1.5pts @ 15/8 with Betfair  

A quick look back at Aintree's bumper on Friday and it was good to have the winner in Latitude although I have to say I think we got away with one as the 2nd was the best horse in the race. I think either side of the line and Foxinthebox would have won, but thankfully for us Latitude had his nose down where it mattered. To be fair to the winner he looks a promising horse and I can see him building on the promise he has shown so far next season, but he clearly knew his job unlike the 2nd. Foxinthebox had jumped terribly on his debut and then on Friday he was very green, but once the penny dropped he stayed on strongly to only just be denied. He looks a stayer in the making and has clearly got more learning to do, but he is one to keep a close eye in the future. Latenightrumble ran well in 3rd and they were miles clear of the other 3 which is why I think the form could be pretty strong.   Back to hunter chase action this evening with Huntingdon hosting their only one of the season and we have another Maxwell odds on favourite in the shape of Dolphin Square. I tried taking him on at Kelso, but he was much better than Right Of Reply at the line and as much as that one slowed right down I just can't see how Right Of Reply can reverse the form. I think Dolphin Square will improve for a bigger field and a longer trip and I find it hard to see him being beaten.   If there is one to beat him it is likely to be Tullys Touch who hacked up at Fakenham last time. He also goes up against the horse he beat last time as Laser Beam goes here, but again I just don't see the form being reversed. Tullys Touch had loads in hand at the line and he had beaten him at High Easter last month as well. He is probably still progressive and given how easy he won at Fakenham it is hard to know exactly how good he is, but he needs to find a lot for me to beat Dolphin Square. The handicapper gave him a mark of 105 after that win and to be honest that seems fair enough at the moment. I think he can finish 2nd to the favourite as he is open to a bit more improvement than Right Of Reply.   What really interests me though is the betting without the front two market as I like Green Winter. Laser Beam looked very one paced at High Easter and Fakenham behind Tullys Touch so he is opposable. Tangoed ran really well in her only hunter chase to date at Stratford 2 years ago. She was a close 3rd to Earth Leader which was a top effort, but then in December the same year she finished 35L behind him at Larkhill. She wasn't seen again until Kimble in November where she pulled up behind Porlock Bay. She was then off until April where she was a well beaten 7th 6 days before winning at Aldington. It was a big victory, but it was a weak race so I'm not sure she is as good as that Stratford run suggested she could be.   With Spanish Fleet and Babytaggle both looking like they will be outclassed that leaves us with Green Winter. He has only run in two hunter chases despite the fact he is 13 and they were in two renewals of the John Corbett Cup where he pulled up both times. He is a classy pointer though as he has shown over the years. Last year he finished a close 2nd to Shantou Flyer at Larkhill and was then 2nd to Chameron in the Coronation Gold Cup at the same venue. He wasn't seen again until 2 weeks ago when he was an 8L 2nd at Mollington, but the winner that day was landing a hat-trick so the form looks solid to me especially as he pulled well clear of the 3rd. He should come on for that and I think he only has Right Of Reply to beat in this market and I think he has a decent chance of doing so. Annoyingly he has been backed in the outright market so he is now favourite in the betting without the front two market, but I think there is still value in his price.   Dolphin Square to beat Tullys Touch 1pt fc Dolphin Square to beat Green Winter 0.5pts fc Green Winter betting without front 2 1.5pts @ 15/8 with Betfair  

A quick look back at Aintree's bumper on Friday and it was good to have the winner in Latitude although I have to say I think we got away with one as the 2nd was the best horse in the race. I think either side of the line and Foxinthebox would have won, but thankfully for us Latitude had his nose down where it mattered. To be fair to the winner he looks a promising horse and I can see him building on the promise he has shown so far next season, but he clearly knew his job unlike the 2nd. Foxinthebox had jumped terribly on his debut and then on Friday he was very green, but once the penny dropped he stayed on strongly to only just be denied. He looks a stayer in the making and has clearly got more learning to do, but he is one to keep a close eye in the future. Latenightrumble ran well in 3rd and they were miles clear of the other 3 which is why I think the form could be pretty strong.   Back to hunter chase action this evening with Huntingdon hosting their only one of the season and we have another Maxwell odds on favourite in the shape of Dolphin Square. I tried taking him on at Kelso, but he was much better than Right Of Reply at the line and as much as that one slowed right down I just can't see how Right Of Reply can reverse the form. I think Dolphin Square will improve for a bigger field and a longer trip and I find it hard to see him being beaten.   If there is one to beat him it is likely to be Tullys Touch who hacked up at Fakenham last time. He also goes up against the horse he beat last time as Laser Beam goes here, but again I just don't see the form being reversed. Tullys Touch had loads in hand at the line and he had beaten him at High Easter last month as well. He is probably still progressive and given how easy he won at Fakenham it is hard to know exactly how good he is, but he needs to find a lot for me to beat Dolphin Square. The handicapper gave him a mark of 105 after that win and to be honest that seems fair enough at the moment. I think he can finish 2nd to the favourite as he is open to a bit more improvement than Right Of Reply.   What really interests me though is the betting without the front two market as I like Green Winter. Laser Beam looked very one paced at High Easter and Fakenham behind Tullys Touch so he is opposable. Tangoed ran really well in her only hunter chase to date at Stratford 2 years ago. She was a close 3rd to Earth Leader which was a top effort, but then in December the same year she finished 35L behind him at Larkhill. She wasn't seen again until Kimble in November where she pulled up behind Porlock Bay. She was then off until April where she was a well beaten 7th 6 days before winning at Aldington. It was a big victory, but it was a weak race so I'm not sure she is as good as that Stratford run suggested she could be.   With Spanish Fleet and Babytaggle both looking like they will be outclassed that leaves us with Green Winter. He has only run in two hunter chases despite the fact he is 13 and they were in two renewals of the John Corbett Cup where he pulled up both times. He is a classy pointer though as he has shown over the years. Last year he finished a close 2nd to Shantou Flyer at Larkhill and was then 2nd to Chameron in the Coronation Gold Cup at the same venue. He wasn't seen again until 2 weeks ago when he was an 8L 2nd at Mollington, but the winner that day was landing a hat-trick so the form looks solid to me especially as he pulled well clear of the 3rd. He should come on for that and I think he only has Right Of Reply to beat in this market and I think he has a decent chance of doing so. Annoyingly he has been backed in the outright market so he is now favourite in the betting without the front two market, but I think there is still value in his price.   Dolphin Square to beat Tullys Touch 1pt fc Dolphin Square to beat Green Winter 0.5pts fc Green Winter betting without front 2 1.5pts @ 15/8 with Betfair  

Stakes so far are 24pts and returns are 24.3pts so currently just in profit ahead of the big Warrnambool carnival next week.

Nice Forecast race 3!!

With the maiden hurdle having divided 3 times again we have 5 races at Casterton on Sunday morning. 
Race 1 (2.05am)
Holburt is odds on favourite at the time of writing and he has a clear chance. He has been running well on the flat this prep and his best hurdles run was at Hamilton last month when he was a 9.5L 3rd to Valac. Maybe he is improving, but it is hard to see why he should be so short on the rest of his hurdles form. As much as he is a possible winner I am more than happy to look elsewhere. Flying Mr Davis has been nibbled at in the betting and the jockey booking does catch the eye on his hurdles debut. He has been in fair form on the flat and was a good 3rd two starts back. I thought he looked a bit novicey over his hurdles in his last trial though and that concerns me. The Beehive clocked a decent time when winning a trial last month and he is quite unusual from what I have seen in Aussie jumpers because he has only had the 5 starts on the flat before going over hurdles. The fact they aren't hanging around to send him over hurdles suggest that is what they think he will be good at and he has a top jockey on top. Zoffany Rocket looks the one who is over priced to me though. He ran twice at Warrnambool finishing a close 5th on the Tuesday in a maiden hurdle and then an 11L 3rd to Valac in the Champion Novice 2 days later. Obviously that does strictly speaking leave him with 1.5L to find on the favourite, but that was a stronger race for me and I think Zoffany Rocket should be much shorter in the betting for me. I'd even argue he could easily be made the favourite so I will back him and have a small saver on The Beehive.
Zoffany Rocket 1.5pts @ 11/2 with Betfred
The Beehive 0.5pts @ 11/2 with Betfred and Betfair
Race 2 (2.45am)
Those of you with long memories might remember Aloft who finished 2nd in the 2014 Racing Post Trophy and won the the 2015 Queens Vase at Royal Ascot. He was first sent over hurdles 2 years ago at Warrnambool and ran poorly, but he was found to have come back with a cut and the jockey reported that he ran flat. He then went into a BM120 at Sandown and was a close 3rd although his jumping wasn't always the best. He had 77 weeks off after that and has struggled on the flat in his 6 starts this year. He hasn't been foot perfect in his hurdles trials either. He clearly has the class to win this, but we are a bit in the dark as to how much ability he retains. Scriba is making his hurdles debut and he looked unlucky when 3rd at Donald last week where he was just in front of By Design who also runs in this and stayed on well for 7th. Scriba has had a couple of quiet hurdle trials so it's hard to get a proper handle on how good he will be, but I'm a bit surprised he heads the market. The one that appeals most is another import in Sir Edwin Landseer. I thought he ran really well on his hurdles debut at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago where he was just beaten by Out And Dreaming. He stayed on really well so this slightly further trip should suit and he is the pick for me.
Sir Edwin Landseer 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365
Race 3 (3.25am)
I think this is the most interesting of the 3 maidens. Jimmy's Secret heads the betting and he stayed on well enough for 2nd behind an easy winner at Warrnambool on his hurdling debut and it suggests the longer trip will suit. He can win, but like the favourite in the first race he looks short enough for me and I am happy to look elsewhere. Marinated is just behind him in the market and he ran decent enough in a BM64 on the flat a couple of weeks ago. He trialled OK over hurdles last month just before that and he can go well, but again he looks short enough in the betting. I am slightly surprised that Ablestock is so short in the betting as he was only 7th on his hurdles debut and was behind another of his rivals here in the shape of The Delphi. I actually think The Delphi is a bet in this as he was 4th beaten 11.5L in what was the quickest of the 3 maidens at Warrnambool. His jumping wasn't foot perfect, but I thought he ran on well enough and he shouldn't be a double figure price on the back of that. The other one I like is He's All White. He made a very good hurdles debut when 2nd at Warrnambool last July. He was well beaten at Pakenham on his next start, but he was spelled after that so there could well have been an issue. He had a good hurdles trial last month and his two flat runs have been solid enough since. If he can run to the level he did on his hurdles debut then I think he has a very good chance. The other one worth a mention is Once Were Lost whose jockey made a strange mid-race move on him last time and not surprisingly he didn't have much left late on in the same race Sir Edwin Landseer was 2nd in at Warrnambool.
He's All White 1pt e/w @ 15/2 with Betfred
The Delphi 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred
Race 4 (4.05am)
This is a pretty weak hurdle although it is full of the old favourites. Double Bluff is favourite, but he's gone backwards since winning impressively on his seasonal return. He is good enough to win if he finds his form again, but I am happy to take on at short odds. Mr One Eleven is next in the betting, but I can't have him. Buckeye Nation did win well last time, but it was a desperate race and he was beaten by Looking Around at Oakbank the start before. He might get an easy lead again, but this is certainly the toughest race he's been in of late. I will instead take a small chance on Coleridge. He wasn't great in the Galleywood last time, but his other 3 starts this season were decent enough especially in context of this race. He also has a good record at Casterton so I will side with him.
Coleridge 1pt @ 4/1 with Betfred
Race 5 (4.45am)
The big race of the day is the steeplechase and again we have a favourite who I think is worth taking on in Macklemore. He lost his maiden tag over fences last time, but it was a really bad race and he looks beatable to me. Elvison was too keen in this race last year when 4th, but he did beat Lucques over course and distance after that. He had a slow post race recovery when he ran in the Von Doussa last time and I just wonder if he will need this after that effort. Historic has the form to win this, but he has shown little so far this season. The one I am keen on from an e/w angle is Lucques. Granted he doesn't win often and is only 1 from 19 over fences. He has however finished 2nd or 3rd 11 times and he is just so consistent. This season he has been 2nd 3 times beaten less than a length each time and then 3rd in the Von Doussa and 3rd in the Brierly. For me he is the most consistent of these and I would be hopeful of landing the place money at the very least. I am also going to cover Longclaw who I think will be better for his run in the BM120 at Warrnambool when he was 4th.
Lucques 1.5pts e/w @ 7/1 with Betfred
Longclaw 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Bet365
 

With the maiden hurdle having divided 3 times again we have 5 races at Casterton on Sunday morning. 
Race 1 (2.05am)
Holburt is odds on favourite at the time of writing and he has a clear chance. He has been running well on the flat this prep and his best hurdles run was at Hamilton last month when he was a 9.5L 3rd to Valac. Maybe he is improving, but it is hard to see why he should be so short on the rest of his hurdles form. As much as he is a possible winner I am more than happy to look elsewhere. Flying Mr Davis has been nibbled at in the betting and the jockey booking does catch the eye on his hurdles debut. He has been in fair form on the flat and was a good 3rd two starts back. I thought he looked a bit novicey over his hurdles in his last trial though and that concerns me. The Beehive clocked a decent time when winning a trial last month and he is quite unusual from what I have seen in Aussie jumpers because he has only had the 5 starts on the flat before going over hurdles. The fact they aren't hanging around to send him over hurdles suggest that is what they think he will be good at and he has a top jockey on top. Zoffany Rocket looks the one who is over priced to me though. He ran twice at Warrnambool finishing a close 5th on the Tuesday in a maiden hurdle and then an 11L 3rd to Valac in the Champion Novice 2 days later. Obviously that does strictly speaking leave him with 1.5L to find on the favourite, but that was a stronger race for me and I think Zoffany Rocket should be much shorter in the betting for me. I'd even argue he could easily be made the favourite so I will back him and have a small saver on The Beehive.
Zoffany Rocket 1.5pts @ 11/2 with Betfred
The Beehive 0.5pts @ 11/2 with Betfred and Betfair
Race 2 (2.45am)
Those of you with long memories might remember Aloft who finished 2nd in the 2014 Racing Post Trophy and won the the 2015 Queens Vase at Royal Ascot. He was first sent over hurdles 2 years ago at Warrnambool and ran poorly, but he was found to have come back with a cut and the jockey reported that he ran flat. He then went into a BM120 at Sandown and was a close 3rd although his jumping wasn't always the best. He had 77 weeks off after that and has struggled on the flat in his 6 starts this year. He hasn't been foot perfect in his hurdles trials either. He clearly has the class to win this, but we are a bit in the dark as to how much ability he retains. Scriba is making his hurdles debut and he looked unlucky when 3rd at Donald last week where he was just in front of By Design who also runs in this and stayed on well for 7th. Scriba has had a couple of quiet hurdle trials so it's hard to get a proper handle on how good he will be, but I'm a bit surprised he heads the market. The one that appeals most is another import in Sir Edwin Landseer. I thought he ran really well on his hurdles debut at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago where he was just beaten by Out And Dreaming. He stayed on really well so this slightly further trip should suit and he is the pick for me.
Sir Edwin Landseer 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365
Race 3 (3.25am)
I think this is the most interesting of the 3 maidens. Jimmy's Secret heads the betting and he stayed on well enough for 2nd behind an easy winner at Warrnambool on his hurdling debut and it suggests the longer trip will suit. He can win, but like the favourite in the first race he looks short enough for me and I am happy to look elsewhere. Marinated is just behind him in the market and he ran decent enough in a BM64 on the flat a couple of weeks ago. He trialled OK over hurdles last month just before that and he can go well, but again he looks short enough in the betting. I am slightly surprised that Ablestock is so short in the betting as he was only 7th on his hurdles debut and was behind another of his rivals here in the shape of The Delphi. I actually think The Delphi is a bet in this as he was 4th beaten 11.5L in what was the quickest of the 3 maidens at Warrnambool. His jumping wasn't foot perfect, but I thought he ran on well enough and he shouldn't be a double figure price on the back of that. The other one I like is He's All White. He made a very good hurdles debut when 2nd at Warrnambool last July. He was well beaten at Pakenham on his next start, but he was spelled after that so there could well have been an issue. He had a good hurdles trial last month and his two flat runs have been solid enough since. If he can run to the level he did on his hurdles debut then I think he has a very good chance. The other one worth a mention is Once Were Lost whose jockey made a strange mid-race move on him last time and not surprisingly he didn't have much left late on in the same race Sir Edwin Landseer was 2nd in at Warrnambool.
He's All White 1pt e/w @ 15/2 with Betfred
The Delphi 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred
Race 4 (4.05am)
This is a pretty weak hurdle although it is full of the old favourites. Double Bluff is favourite, but he's gone backwards since winning impressively on his seasonal return. He is good enough to win if he finds his form again, but I am happy to take on at short odds. Mr One Eleven is next in the betting, but I can't have him. Buckeye Nation did win well last time, but it was a desperate race and he was beaten by Looking Around at Oakbank the start before. He might get an easy lead again, but this is certainly the toughest race he's been in of late. I will instead take a small chance on Coleridge. He wasn't great in the Galleywood last time, but his other 3 starts this season were decent enough especially in context of this race. He also has a good record at Casterton so I will side with him.
Coleridge 1pt @ 4/1 with Betfred
Race 5 (4.45am)
The big race of the day is the steeplechase and again we have a favourite who I think is worth taking on in Macklemore. He lost his maiden tag over fences last time, but it was a really bad race and he looks beatable to me. Elvison was too keen in this race last year when 4th, but he did beat Lucques over course and distance after that. He had a slow post race recovery when he ran in the Von Doussa last time and I just wonder if he will need this after that effort. Historic has the form to win this, but he has shown little so far this season. The one I am keen on from an e/w angle is Lucques. Granted he doesn't win often and is only 1 from 19 over fences. He has however finished 2nd or 3rd 11 times and he is just so consistent. This season he has been 2nd 3 times beaten less than a length each time and then 3rd in the Von Doussa and 3rd in the Brierly. For me he is the most consistent of these and I would be hopeful of landing the place money at the very least. I am also going to cover Longclaw who I think will be better for his run in the BM120 at Warrnambool when he was 4th.
Lucques 1.5pts e/w @ 7/1 with Betfred
Longclaw 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Bet365
 

Spot on !!
Great tipping

With the maiden hurdle having divided 3 times again we have 5 races at Casterton on Sunday morning. 
Race 1 (2.05am)
Holburt is odds on favourite at the time of writing and he has a clear chance. He has been running well on the flat this prep and his best hurdles run was at Hamilton last month when he was a 9.5L 3rd to Valac. Maybe he is improving, but it is hard to see why he should be so short on the rest of his hurdles form. As much as he is a possible winner I am more than happy to look elsewhere. Flying Mr Davis has been nibbled at in the betting and the jockey booking does catch the eye on his hurdles debut. He has been in fair form on the flat and was a good 3rd two starts back. I thought he looked a bit novicey over his hurdles in his last trial though and that concerns me. The Beehive clocked a decent time when winning a trial last month and he is quite unusual from what I have seen in Aussie jumpers because he has only had the 5 starts on the flat before going over hurdles. The fact they aren't hanging around to send him over hurdles suggest that is what they think he will be good at and he has a top jockey on top. Zoffany Rocket looks the one who is over priced to me though. He ran twice at Warrnambool finishing a close 5th on the Tuesday in a maiden hurdle and then an 11L 3rd to Valac in the Champion Novice 2 days later. Obviously that does strictly speaking leave him with 1.5L to find on the favourite, but that was a stronger race for me and I think Zoffany Rocket should be much shorter in the betting for me. I'd even argue he could easily be made the favourite so I will back him and have a small saver on The Beehive.
Zoffany Rocket 1.5pts @ 11/2 with Betfred
The Beehive 0.5pts @ 11/2 with Betfred and Betfair
Race 2 (2.45am)
Those of you with long memories might remember Aloft who finished 2nd in the 2014 Racing Post Trophy and won the the 2015 Queens Vase at Royal Ascot. He was first sent over hurdles 2 years ago at Warrnambool and ran poorly, but he was found to have come back with a cut and the jockey reported that he ran flat. He then went into a BM120 at Sandown and was a close 3rd although his jumping wasn't always the best. He had 77 weeks off after that and has struggled on the flat in his 6 starts this year. He hasn't been foot perfect in his hurdles trials either. He clearly has the class to win this, but we are a bit in the dark as to how much ability he retains. Scriba is making his hurdles debut and he looked unlucky when 3rd at Donald last week where he was just in front of By Design who also runs in this and stayed on well for 7th. Scriba has had a couple of quiet hurdle trials so it's hard to get a proper handle on how good he will be, but I'm a bit surprised he heads the market. The one that appeals most is another import in Sir Edwin Landseer. I thought he ran really well on his hurdles debut at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago where he was just beaten by Out And Dreaming. He stayed on really well so this slightly further trip should suit and he is the pick for me.
Sir Edwin Landseer 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365
Race 3 (3.25am)
I think this is the most interesting of the 3 maidens. Jimmy's Secret heads the betting and he stayed on well enough for 2nd behind an easy winner at Warrnambool on his hurdling debut and it suggests the longer trip will suit. He can win, but like the favourite in the first race he looks short enough for me and I am happy to look elsewhere. Marinated is just behind him in the market and he ran decent enough in a BM64 on the flat a couple of weeks ago. He trialled OK over hurdles last month just before that and he can go well, but again he looks short enough in the betting. I am slightly surprised that Ablestock is so short in the betting as he was only 7th on his hurdles debut and was behind another of his rivals here in the shape of The Delphi. I actually think The Delphi is a bet in this as he was 4th beaten 11.5L in what was the quickest of the 3 maidens at Warrnambool. His jumping wasn't foot perfect, but I thought he ran on well enough and he shouldn't be a double figure price on the back of that. The other one I like is He's All White. He made a very good hurdles debut when 2nd at Warrnambool last July. He was well beaten at Pakenham on his next start, but he was spelled after that so there could well have been an issue. He had a good hurdles trial last month and his two flat runs have been solid enough since. If he can run to the level he did on his hurdles debut then I think he has a very good chance. The other one worth a mention is Once Were Lost whose jockey made a strange mid-race move on him last time and not surprisingly he didn't have much left late on in the same race Sir Edwin Landseer was 2nd in at Warrnambool.
He's All White 1pt e/w @ 15/2 with Betfred
The Delphi 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred
Race 4 (4.05am)
This is a pretty weak hurdle although it is full of the old favourites. Double Bluff is favourite, but he's gone backwards since winning impressively on his seasonal return. He is good enough to win if he finds his form again, but I am happy to take on at short odds. Mr One Eleven is next in the betting, but I can't have him. Buckeye Nation did win well last time, but it was a desperate race and he was beaten by Looking Around at Oakbank the start before. He might get an easy lead again, but this is certainly the toughest race he's been in of late. I will instead take a small chance on Coleridge. He wasn't great in the Galleywood last time, but his other 3 starts this season were decent enough especially in context of this race. He also has a good record at Casterton so I will side with him.
Coleridge 1pt @ 4/1 with Betfred
Race 5 (4.45am)
The big race of the day is the steeplechase and again we have a favourite who I think is worth taking on in Macklemore. He lost his maiden tag over fences last time, but it was a really bad race and he looks beatable to me. Elvison was too keen in this race last year when 4th, but he did beat Lucques over course and distance after that. He had a slow post race recovery when he ran in the Von Doussa last time and I just wonder if he will need this after that effort. Historic has the form to win this, but he has shown little so far this season. The one I am keen on from an e/w angle is Lucques. Granted he doesn't win often and is only 1 from 19 over fences. He has however finished 2nd or 3rd 11 times and he is just so consistent. This season he has been 2nd 3 times beaten less than a length each time and then 3rd in the Von Doussa and 3rd in the Brierly. For me he is the most consistent of these and I would be hopeful of landing the place money at the very least. I am also going to cover Longclaw who I think will be better for his run in the BM120 at Warrnambool when he was 4th.
Lucques 1.5pts e/w @ 7/1 with Betfred
Longclaw 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Bet365
 

During the first lockdown my attention turned to Australia and I was posting flat racing tips every Saturday from March to November. What I had never really done before though was pay real close attention to Australian jumps racing, but discovered that there was money to be made from it. With there not being a huge amount of races a year, plus a relatively small pool of horses I thought that it could easily become another part of my betting armour. So I am going to attempt to cover the whole season and see if I can do as well this time around. The season starts with 3 races at Warrnambool on Monday morning.
Race 1 (1.25am)
A BM125 steeplechase gets the season underway and we have 5 runners. Ascot Red only had 1 run over jumps last season and he won the same race at Ballarat in August for the 2nd year running. Both wins were on a Heavy10, but he has gone close on a quicker surface both over jumps and flat. Has had a much needed prep run on the flat because his 1st up record is shocking and has a good chance here. Lucques tends to run well enough, but he does find it very hard to get his head in front. Zatagilo hasn't won since June 2018, but his last 2 jump starts last season were good 2nds and he has had a prep run on the flat. Newbury shows glimmers of promise, but didn't show a great deal last season so I'm fairly happy to pass him over. Steam Roller pulled up lame at Casterton on his last hurdle start in June. He has done well on the flat wince winning twice including a BM70 at Moonee Valley. He makes his chase debut here and trialled OK over them recently although he wasn't asked for much of an effort. He does have to give 7kgs to Steam Roller, but I think Ascot Red is the won to beat here. He's done well over fences and I think his experience could give him the edge of Steam Roller. I would completely rule out the two outsiders either although both do find it hard to win.
Ascot Red 1pt @ 11/8 with William Hill and Betfred
Race 2 (2.05am)
An Open Hurdle is the 2nd race and there is very little between Goodwood Zodiac, Double Bluff and Rexmount in the betting. Goodwood Zodiac has shown little in 3 flat starts recently, but they were his 1st runs since May 2019. Did well over hurdles in 2019 winning 2 of his 4 starts. Double Bluff is another not seen over hurdles since 2019 having last run in the Grand National Hurdle when disappointing although he did win a couple of times that season. He didn't appear again until New Year's Eve and ran well on the flat in a BM78 at Moonee Valley last month. Rexmont was impressive in his maiden hurdle win at Coleraine on his only hurdle start last season. He has done well in 5 flat starts this prep winning one and he has also won a hurdle trial. Of the other two Sollerane wouldn't be out if it completely having run OK in a couple of good races at Sandown and Ballarat last season after winning a maiden hurdle at Pakenham in April. I was quite taken with Rexmont's win last season and think he can progress into a decent hurdler so I will take him to land this contest.
Rexmont 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill & Betfred
Race 3 (2.45am)
The 1st maiden hurdle of the season looks a pretty weak affair. You only have to look at the fact that Chenners, who has had 16 hurdle runs, is 2/1 2nd fav at the time of writing. He has shown on the odd occasion that he could land one of these at some point and he did win on the flat in January. The percentage call has to be to take him on though. My Kings Counsel just heads the betting, but he didn't look a world beater in his runs over both hurdles and fences last season. Instead I will take a small chance on one of the hurdling newcomers Hitch Hiker Jamie. The 4yo has only had 11 starts so is by fair the least exposed runner in the field. He looks like he will make a hurdler based on his trials. He won both of them and jumped well as well. I don't think it is a race to go overboard on, but to me he looks value at the prices given the front two of the market don't exactly set a high standard.
Hitch Hiker Jamie 0.5pts @ 13/2 @ Betfair and Betfred 

In the end I couldn't make up my mind what to do at Fontwell so I just left the race alone. The rain stayed away for Law Of Gold and he ended up landing a fairly comfortable success at the line. As Dale said after the race though Maxwell set the race up nicely for him on Shantou Flyer as he gave him a good gallop to aim at. My eye kept being drawn to the times on screen and there seemed to be plenty of red furlongs which suggests to me that the favourite was going too fast and he had little left at the end. Dale gave the winner a good ride though because as they jumped the first on the last circuit he realised he needed to wake his mount up and go and challenge Shantou Flyer. My guess is he will be heading to Stratford for their Foxhunter in a couple of weeks and if the ground remains decent then he will have a leading chance. Dundrum Wood wasn't good enough to go with the front two, but I also suspect he wanted the rain to come and in the end he was only just in front of Keltus.
Tonight Aintree host the 2nd of 3 point-to-point bumpers and I was amazed when Crews Pitch was put in as a 5/4 favourite. This race looks stronger than the Exeter contest he was 2nd in last month so I am happy to pass him over.
Foxinthebox has become favourite on his first start for Olly Murphy after making his debut at Barbury in December when with Francesca Nimmo. He jumped terribly that day and did as well as he did to get as close as he did. No obstacles will clearly help him based on that and his former yard are well known for producing good young horses. My one concern though is he also got outpaced at Barbury so he might not want a sharp test like this.
If I Say is next in the betting and she beat Time Bandit on debut at Chaddesley Corbett last month. She came from off the pace, which was quite a strong one unusually for a bumper and hit the front about a furlong out. She then looked green but kept finding to win by just under 2L. I actually think that Time Bandit has a good chance of reversing the form. He helped make the strong pace and crucially he carried 7lbs more than the winner and here they will be off level weights with Darren's claim. We know how good the trainer is as well so that is another plus and I like the way he stayed on once he was past. Granted the winner should come on for the experience, but the price difference is too big for me.
Latenightfumble goes for the Ellis team and you always have to respect one of theirs, but I get the feeling she is running as she is the only one who qualifies for a bonus linked to the race. She did bolt up at Dingley in April in what is her only start over less than 2m and she doesn't seem to quite stay 3m as she showed again in a restricted at High Easter. That would suggest 2m might suit as well, but having first run 2 years ago she wouldn't have the scope for progress as the others.
That leaves us with Latitude who I think has a very good chance. He was disappointing in a 2m4f maiden at Chaddesley Corbett in December when a well beaten 3rd although he looked a bit of a non stayer. It could also be that he had a problem given we haven't seen him since. The key piece of form though is his first race in a bumper at Maisemore. He was really impressive that day and the form looks strong. The 12L 2nd has won since and is a horse his trainer thinks a lot off, but another 20L back in 3rd was Rose Above It who landed the Exeter bumper. Based on that at the very least he should be a shorter price than Crews Pitch. Back into a bumper I think we will see a much better performance given what he did on debut and since his trainer took out a rules licence they have done well in bumpers. Out of 13 runners in rules bumpers she has had 2 winners and 4 placed.
I certainly respect the claims of Foxinthebox and If I Say and if either of those won I wouldn't be shocked, but to me Time Bandit and especially Latitude look over priced.
Latitude 1pt @ 13/2 with Bet365
Time Bandit 0.5pts @ 16/1 with Bet365

In the end I couldn't make up my mind what to do at Fontwell so I just left the race alone. The rain stayed away for Law Of Gold and he ended up landing a fairly comfortable success at the line. As Dale said after the race though Maxwell set the race up nicely for him on Shantou Flyer as he gave him a good gallop to aim at. My eye kept being drawn to the times on screen and there seemed to be plenty of red furlongs which suggests to me that the favourite was going too fast and he had little left at the end. Dale gave the winner a good ride though because as they jumped the first on the last circuit he realised he needed to wake his mount up and go and challenge Shantou Flyer. My guess is he will be heading to Stratford for their Foxhunter in a couple of weeks and if the ground remains decent then he will have a leading chance. Dundrum Wood wasn't good enough to go with the front two, but I also suspect he wanted the rain to come and in the end he was only just in front of Keltus.
Tonight Aintree host the 2nd of 3 point-to-point bumpers and I was amazed when Crews Pitch was put in as a 5/4 favourite. This race looks stronger than the Exeter contest he was 2nd in last month so I am happy to pass him over.
Foxinthebox has become favourite on his first start for Olly Murphy after making his debut at Barbury in December when with Francesca Nimmo. He jumped terribly that day and did as well as he did to get as close as he did. No obstacles will clearly help him based on that and his former yard are well known for producing good young horses. My one concern though is he also got outpaced at Barbury so he might not want a sharp test like this.
If I Say is next in the betting and she beat Time Bandit on debut at Chaddesley Corbett last month. She came from off the pace, which was quite a strong one unusually for a bumper and hit the front about a furlong out. She then looked green but kept finding to win by just under 2L. I actually think that Time Bandit has a good chance of reversing the form. He helped make the strong pace and crucially he carried 7lbs more than the winner and here they will be off level weights with Darren's claim. We know how good the trainer is as well so that is another plus and I like the way he stayed on once he was past. Granted the winner should come on for the experience, but the price difference is too big for me.
Latenightfumble goes for the Ellis team and you always have to respect one of theirs, but I get the feeling she is running as she is the only one who qualifies for a bonus linked to the race. She did bolt up at Dingley in April in what is her only start over less than 2m and she doesn't seem to quite stay 3m as she showed again in a restricted at High Easter. That would suggest 2m might suit as well, but having first run 2 years ago she wouldn't have the scope for progress as the others.
That leaves us with Latitude who I think has a very good chance. He was disappointing in a 2m4f maiden at Chaddesley Corbett in December when a well beaten 3rd although he looked a bit of a non stayer. It could also be that he had a problem given we haven't seen him since. The key piece of form though is his first race in a bumper at Maisemore. He was really impressive that day and the form looks strong. The 12L 2nd has won since and is a horse his trainer thinks a lot off, but another 20L back in 3rd was Rose Above It who landed the Exeter bumper. Based on that at the very least he should be a shorter price than Crews Pitch. Back into a bumper I think we will see a much better performance given what he did on debut and since his trainer took out a rules licence they have done well in bumpers. Out of 13 runners in rules bumpers she has had 2 winners and 4 placed.
I certainly respect the claims of Foxinthebox and If I Say and if either of those won I wouldn't be shocked, but to me Time Bandit and especially Latitude look over priced.
Latitude 1pt @ 13/2 with Bet365
Time Bandit 0.5pts @ 16/1 with Bet365

In the end I couldn't make up my mind what to do at Fontwell so I just left the race alone. The rain stayed away for Law Of Gold and he ended up landing a fairly comfortable success at the line. As Dale said after the race though Maxwell set the race up nicely for him on Shantou Flyer as he gave him a good gallop to aim at. My eye kept being drawn to the times on screen and there seemed to be plenty of red furlongs which suggests to me that the favourite was going too fast and he had little left at the end. Dale gave the winner a good ride though because as they jumped the first on the last circuit he realised he needed to wake his mount up and go and challenge Shantou Flyer. My guess is he will be heading to Stratford for their Foxhunter in a couple of weeks and if the ground remains decent then he will have a leading chance. Dundrum Wood wasn't good enough to go with the front two, but I also suspect he wanted the rain to come and in the end he was only just in front of Keltus.
Tonight Aintree host the 2nd of 3 point-to-point bumpers and I was amazed when Crews Pitch was put in as a 5/4 favourite. This race looks stronger than the Exeter contest he was 2nd in last month so I am happy to pass him over.
Foxinthebox has become favourite on his first start for Olly Murphy after making his debut at Barbury in December when with Francesca Nimmo. He jumped terribly that day and did as well as he did to get as close as he did. No obstacles will clearly help him based on that and his former yard are well known for producing good young horses. My one concern though is he also got outpaced at Barbury so he might not want a sharp test like this.
If I Say is next in the betting and she beat Time Bandit on debut at Chaddesley Corbett last month. She came from off the pace, which was quite a strong one unusually for a bumper and hit the front about a furlong out. She then looked green but kept finding to win by just under 2L. I actually think that Time Bandit has a good chance of reversing the form. He helped make the strong pace and crucially he carried 7lbs more than the winner and here they will be off level weights with Darren's claim. We know how good the trainer is as well so that is another plus and I like the way he stayed on once he was past. Granted the winner should come on for the experience, but the price difference is too big for me.
Latenightfumble goes for the Ellis team and you always have to respect one of theirs, but I get the feeling she is running as she is the only one who qualifies for a bonus linked to the race. She did bolt up at Dingley in April in what is her only start over less than 2m and she doesn't seem to quite stay 3m as she showed again in a restricted at High Easter. That would suggest 2m might suit as well, but having first run 2 years ago she wouldn't have the scope for progress as the others.
That leaves us with Latitude who I think has a very good chance. He was disappointing in a 2m4f maiden at Chaddesley Corbett in December when a well beaten 3rd although he looked a bit of a non stayer. It could also be that he had a problem given we haven't seen him since. The key piece of form though is his first race in a bumper at Maisemore. He was really impressive that day and the form looks strong. The 12L 2nd has won since and is a horse his trainer thinks a lot off, but another 20L back in 3rd was Rose Above It who landed the Exeter bumper. Based on that at the very least he should be a shorter price than Crews Pitch. Back into a bumper I think we will see a much better performance given what he did on debut and since his trainer took out a rules licence they have done well in bumpers. Out of 13 runners in rules bumpers she has had 2 winners and 4 placed.
I certainly respect the claims of Foxinthebox and If I Say and if either of those won I wouldn't be shocked, but to me Time Bandit and especially Latitude look over priced.
Latitude 1pt @ 13/2 with Bet365
Time Bandit 0.5pts @ 16/1 with Bet365

In the end I couldn't make up my mind what to do at Fontwell so I just left the race alone. The rain stayed away for Law Of Gold and he ended up landing a fairly comfortable success at the line. As Dale said after the race though Maxwell set the race up nicely for him on Shantou Flyer as he gave him a good gallop to aim at. My eye kept being drawn to the times on screen and there seemed to be plenty of red furlongs which suggests to me that the favourite was going too fast and he had little left at the end. Dale gave the winner a good ride though because as they jumped the first on the last circuit he realised he needed to wake his mount up and go and challenge Shantou Flyer. My guess is he will be heading to Stratford for their Foxhunter in a couple of weeks and if the ground remains decent then he will have a leading chance. Dundrum Wood wasn't good enough to go with the front two, but I also suspect he wanted the rain to come and in the end he was only just in front of Keltus.
Tonight Aintree host the 2nd of 3 point-to-point bumpers and I was amazed when Crews Pitch was put in as a 5/4 favourite. This race looks stronger than the Exeter contest he was 2nd in last month so I am happy to pass him over.
Foxinthebox has become favourite on his first start for Olly Murphy after making his debut at Barbury in December when with Francesca Nimmo. He jumped terribly that day and did as well as he did to get as close as he did. No obstacles will clearly help him based on that and his former yard are well known for producing good young horses. My one concern though is he also got outpaced at Barbury so he might not want a sharp test like this.
If I Say is next in the betting and she beat Time Bandit on debut at Chaddesley Corbett last month. She came from off the pace, which was quite a strong one unusually for a bumper and hit the front about a furlong out. She then looked green but kept finding to win by just under 2L. I actually think that Time Bandit has a good chance of reversing the form. He helped make the strong pace and crucially he carried 7lbs more than the winner and here they will be off level weights with Darren's claim. We know how good the trainer is as well so that is another plus and I like the way he stayed on once he was past. Granted the winner should come on for the experience, but the price difference is too big for me.
Latenightfumble goes for the Ellis team and you always have to respect one of theirs, but I get the feeling she is running as she is the only one who qualifies for a bonus linked to the race. She did bolt up at Dingley in April in what is her only start over less than 2m and she doesn't seem to quite stay 3m as she showed again in a restricted at High Easter. That would suggest 2m might suit as well, but having first run 2 years ago she wouldn't have the scope for progress as the others.
That leaves us with Latitude who I think has a very good chance. He was disappointing in a 2m4f maiden at Chaddesley Corbett in December when a well beaten 3rd although he looked a bit of a non stayer. It could also be that he had a problem given we haven't seen him since. The key piece of form though is his first race in a bumper at Maisemore. He was really impressive that day and the form looks strong. The 12L 2nd has won since and is a horse his trainer thinks a lot off, but another 20L back in 3rd was Rose Above It who landed the Exeter bumper. Based on that at the very least he should be a shorter price than Crews Pitch. Back into a bumper I think we will see a much better performance given what he did on debut and since his trainer took out a rules licence they have done well in bumpers. Out of 13 runners in rules bumpers she has had 2 winners and 4 placed.
I certainly respect the claims of Foxinthebox and If I Say and if either of those won I wouldn't be shocked, but to me Time Bandit and especially Latitude look over priced.
Latitude 1pt @ 13/2 with Bet365
Time Bandit 0.5pts @ 16/1 with Bet365