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Darran

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    Jump Racing - 1st June (STRATFORD)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Jump Racing - 1st June (STRATFORD)

    Wouldn't most of the jocks be claiming in this race though?
    Of the top of my head going down the card the jockeys would claim these amounts in a normal hunter chase: 3,7,0,7,0,7,7,7,0,0,0,7,7,0,0 For me it is always something to consider in races like this and in Nick's case this is the only horse he has ridden in a race as far as I know so the fact he can not claim his 7lbs is a big negitive compared to the likes of Colm Sweeney who has loads of experience.

    Jump Racing - 1st June (STRATFORD)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Jump Racing - 1st June (STRATFORD)

    I've gone with That's Rhythm in the 8:20' date=' because of the experience that he has. Hoping that he can keep the 100% record with his new trainer![/quote'] Under rules its 100% but as I mention I saw him pull up on his debut for her. Problem is the jockey is not experienced and he cant claim in a race like this and so he should really have 7lb less than he has and that is against him. Even so he obviously has claims.

    Jump Racing - 1st June (STRATFORD)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Got to say I am much more interested in what happens at Stratford tonight than Epsom where the best jumps race you will see for months takes place. Here are my thoughts on the four hunter chases on the card. 5.40 Not surprisingly Steve Flook is going to be champion hunter chase trainer for the second time. He has trained 11 winners this season and what makes that feat even better is the fact he has done it with only four different horses. I Have Dreamed has added three to that tally and he looks to have a superb chance of making it four in this contest. Those three wins were all impressive and he beat a very useful horse in Rash Move at Southwell last time. There was no disgrace in being beaten by Gwanako twice at Sandown and he has clearly improved since then. One slight concern would be the trip but Stratford isn’t much of a stamina test so it shouldn’t be too much of a worry. He is easily the best horse in the race and although he has to give weight away to all his rivals I think he can do it as does his trainer who was bullish about his chances earlier in the week. The main danger for me has to be Lady Myfanwy who has a fantastic record round Stratford. She has won this race twice in 2011 and 2009, finished second in 2010 and came a good fourth in the John Corbet Cup in 2008. Her trainer likes to keep her busy and she has already run nine times this season but she has had another really solid campaign. The one concern is that her worse run of the season was probably her last one when she was quite a well beaten third albeit behind two decent pointers. To be fair to her though she has bounced back from disappointing runs before and her record is so good here it is hard not to see her go close. I’m not sure she can beat I Have Dreamed but she looks a solid each-way bet. Rowdy Rampage is interesting for Paul Nicholls and he will love the fast ground based on his Irish form and his win at Worcester last summer in a handicap off a mark of 109. His only start this season was in the Foxhunter at Cheltenham and not surprisingly he was outclassed. If this was a handicap he would be getting 11lbs from I Have Dreamed but is only getting 2lbs if you take in the jockey’s claims and although he should run well I find it hard to see him beating I Have Dreamed. The only won I can give a possible squeak to is Cannon Bridge who won this race in 2010 and was second in 2009. He pulled up in this last year and is 14, but has had a pretty solid season. I saw him beat Oslot at Hackwood in March and I can’t see that one reversing form. As much as he has run well here before though it’s hard to see him taking this at 14, unless the market leaders disappoint. Oslot may have been rated in the 150s in the past, but his pointing form is not good enough to see him win this. Rathcor has been stupidly short prices for all his hunter chase runs this season and the form has shown suggests he has no chance here. The rest all look up against it as well. Tip – I Have Dreamed Alternative – Lady Myfanwy e/w 6.10 This race could be quite simple as if Fairwood Present runs as well as he did the last twice when finishing second to Island Life he will win this. His first two starts this season suggested he was on the downgrade at the age of 14, but those two efforts at Ludlow prove he is still in good heart and it’s the best form in the race. He finished second in this race two years ago when just beaten by another of today’s opponents Ryeman. Speaking of Ryeman you always have to give him some sort of chance over this sort of trip, but he hasn’t really achieved an awful lot this season as he was very well beaten the two times he has finished second. He also rarely wins so although he might place I find it hard to back him for win purposes. Another former winner of this contest if Overlut who was successful in 2009. He ran in the race last year but was only sixth. I don’t think he was at his best last season though and his point form this season suggests he is in much better heart. He was successful last time and although it mentions he was unimpressive in the form comments you have to bear in mind that he struggles to stay 3m and he has run well behind some good horses this season. I think he has a decent chance here. Ronnie Ronalde (fell) and Swallows Delight (2nd) both ran in the 2m race at Cheltenham last month. The latter was running a good race until coming down, but he has unseated again since in a novice chase here and that has to be a big worry. If he got round he might be capable of hitting the frame. Swallows Delight was a long way behind Rash Move and although he had the rest well beaten off they were a pretty poor bunch in behind and again he might get a place but I can’t see him winning. Whats Up Doc is another with small claims and clearly needs this sort of trip but as James Tudor can’t claim he has to give weight away to nearly everything else in the race and that will probably stop him winning. We have had a few funny results in hunter chases in the past couple of weeks and I just wonder if Corredor Sun is capable of pulling of an upset. He is only six and his rules form is pretty decent compared to most of these. He has run well enough in two points this season given he clearly doesn’t stay 3m. Based on his rules form this is pretty much the perfect trip for him and it’s the first time his had the right conditions since November 2010. I am taking a flyer with this one but a bold showing wouldn’t surprise and at a big price I am happy to throw a few quid on him. Tip – Overlut Alternative – Fairwood Present and Corredor Sun e/w 7.15 This is a very hot renewal of the John Corbet Cup and it looks really hard to find the winner of. Of the 16 I am quite happy to rule out Bleuvito, Calusa Shadow, Niver Bai, Ringa Bay, Start Royal, My Lil Edge and Trifollet straight away. Kirkleigh, Lucette Annie and Books Review all ran at Exeter last month. All three look decent and progressive horses but my suspicion is there are better horses in this. You can ignore Books Review’s run that day as he clearly was still feeling the effects of a brilliant run at Cheltenham the week before where he got very tired late on to finish second to Doctor Kingsley. I just wonder if that race might have left a mark and he will be better with a longer break to get over it. The next one I am ruling out is the Irish raider Casson. I fully respect connections and obviously the jockey is the best amateur around, but he seems to lack a turn of foot and I wonder if he might get outpaced around here. I also think he doesn’t look as progressive as the rest so both those things are enough to put me of despite the jockey and trainer. Another horse who hardly looks progressive is Coombe Hill. To be fair he has probably had his best season yet at the age of 11 and won well at Cheltenham last month (Rumbury Grey in behind). He was running a good race in this last year before unseating three out and although he wouldn’t have beaten My Flora he might have been placed. I’d be a little disappointed if he won this at the age of 11 although I can see him running his usual solid race and might hit the frame. So that leaves us with four left. Findlay’s Find has been kept busy again this season and this will be his 10th start since February. His jumping has been an issue under rules and he would have won here in March has he not come down at the last. He did finally complete under rules at Chepstow where he finished a solid second to Lorikarad. He had been looking in need of a break as his form was tailing off, but then a change of tactics at Lower Machen where he was given a positive ride meant he returned to winning ways and reversed form with Rosies Peacock who had beaten him the time before. I think he will find it harder to make all here though and with his jumping always going to be a concern I am going to pass over him. Classinaglass looks a very progressive five-year-old for David Easterby and it was hard not to be taken with his Bangor victory on his hunter chase debut. He beat What A Laugh that day and although I don’t think that one got the best of rides it was still some effort to beat him given the high regard What A Laugh is held in. This is a very different test though and the suspicion is it might come a year to soon for him and if he did score it wouldn’t be a big surprise. Regular viewers of my tips and previews will know the high regard I hold Rumbury Grey in. I was pretty disappointed after his Cheltenham defeat but I think he is much better than he was able to show there. It was interesting to read Steve Flook’s quotes in The Weekender this week as he gave a reason for his defeat that day. He said that the horse just has the one pace and can’t quicken. Jockey Rob Jarrett took a pull at the top of the hill and he couldn’t get back into the race. I’d imagine the soft ground that day didn’t help matters either. I am expecting much better from the horse tonight and have to back him given how good I think he is. My main bet in the race however will be Monkerty Tunkerty. He was fancied for the Foxhunter at Cheltenham, but sadly the horse picked up an injury and then his owner/trainer Jessica Westwood picked up an injury which means she can no longer ride. As much as that is a real shame for her it does mean that she has booked experienced Joshua Guerriero and that is a big plus in my view. He comfortably won his first two points this season and then made his rules debut at Warwick where he was very impressive in beating Bradley. I suspect Bradley probably wasn’t quite at his best that day, but even so given what that one has done since it was some performance. He looks a horse with plenty to come and hopefully his jockey will be wise enough not to get into a battle up front. He in my view is the most likely winner, although like I say it’s a really competitive race and one to really look forward to watching. Tip – Monkerty Tunkerty Alternative – Rumbury Grey 8.20 The feature race of the night and this is one of the best renewals we have had for a long time. Among the line-up are the first four from last year and the last two winners of the Cheltenham Foxhunter. I will take a quick spin through the 15 runners. Divine Intavention – On the face of it his effort at Folkestone was a bit disappointing as he struggled to beat Lepido, however I have come to the conclusion that the horse only does enough and is probably never going to look impressive regardless of opposition. He is a decent horse, but My Flora has already beaten him and I don’t see the form being reversed here. The suspicion is he is just below top class. Earth Dream – A tricky horse to weigh up as it is impossible to tell how good he is. He was around a 130 horse when trained by Paul Nicholls and he was been mopping some fairly easy East Anglian points before hacking up by 54L in a poor hunter chase at Fakenham. He would have to improve on his old rules form to win this and his inexperienced rider can’t claim, but you still couldn’t confidently say he won’t play a part. Eleazar – A right monkey who I feel really should have won this race last year but the winner had got first run and he couldn’t quite peg him back on the short home straight. Showed his quirks yet again when winning at Fakenham last time and although he is capable of running, this is a stronger renewal and he won’t get away with what he did at Fakenham here. Gina Andrews rides for the first time though and that is a positive. Herons Well – Fourth in this last year as his stamina ran out late on. Jockey went too hard on him at Cheltenham last time and was a good third at Aintree before that. Even so it is hard to see him doing any better than last year. Hurricane Carter – Second to Eleazar and That’s Rhythm the last twice and outclassed. Keenan’s Future – I have tipped him up the last twice and frustratingly he has fallen both times when still travelling well. He is over priced at around 33/1 as he is capable of running well, but even so it’s hard to back given those falls and he fell in this last year. Oca De Thaix – No chance Postmaster – Qualified to run in this with a very easy success over Start Royal at Folkestone a couple of weeks ago. He won a handicap of off 132 last August and I would say he is still running to around that mark and the handicapper currently has him at 137. Two slight doubts are that he bled in the Grand National and the trip. I actually think he will be fine over this trip round here as he stayed on well last time and in that handicap win at Bangor. He is a big player for me as long as he doesn’t burst again. Salsify – The impressive winner of this year’s Cheltenham Foxhunter and the one they all have to beat here. He fell two out at Fairyhouse over Easter and although some say he looked held at the time I actually disagree as he was only just being asked for his effort after travelling really well. He has been given plenty of time to get over that run in testing ground and the much better ground tonight will be perfect for him. If he turns up in the same form as Cheltenham then he will win. Shouldhavenownbettr – No chance Southwestern – Has been a superb hunter chaser and point to pointer over the years and is looking for his third win in this after scoring in 2009 and last year. Last year’s race wasn’t as strong as it was this year and I don’t think he was the best horse in what was a bit of a strange race. Has won five out of six points this season, but the form is garbage and if it wasn’t for the fact he clearly loves Stratford he would be a massive price to win this. Even so at the age of 14 in a race of this quality he will need even more luck than last year to win. Templer – Second in 2010 and third last year, but has always been hard to win with. He also looks on the downgrade this season so is very hard to fancy. That’s Rhythm – You could have had 1000/1 with me that he would even be lining up in this race when I saw him being pulled up in an awful race at Charing on his pointing debut. He made a really bad mistake at the first and never went a yard after that. He has looked a different horse since though winning two points and then hunter chases at Bangor and Uttoxeter. He was particularly impressive last time although the horses he beat are all clearly well past their bests. His inexperienced jockey can’t claim and that is a negitive to his chances, it’s also pretty hard to tell how good he still is as this is a much better race than he has faced this season. My gut feeling is he isn’t good enough, but a bold showing would not surprise. Zemsky – Derek O’Connor gave him a peach of a ride to win the 2010 Cheltenham Foxhunter which was a bit of a shock result. He has only run once since at Fairyhouse over Easter where he ran a nice enough race in testing ground. This better ground will help and has the best jockey in the race on board, but it is impossible to tell if we are going to see that Cheltenham effort here given his problems since. My feeling is Salsify was a better winner as well, so all in all I find it very hard to back him, but he wouldn’t be a shock winner by any means. My Flora – Has 14L to make up on Salsify on Cheltenham running and the big question is can she reverse form over a course and distance we know she handles. Stratford does seem to be a real course specialist’s track and so her easy win in the John Corbet is a big plus for me. Since her fourth at Cheltenham she has beaten Divine Intavention at Ludlow and then hacked up here in a poor race. If she runs her race it’s hard to see her being out of the first three. Conclusion – I think Salsify will be very hard to beat. He has looked really impressive at Leopardstown and Cheltenham and granted luck in running running to that standard will be more than enough to win this. My Flora looks massive each-value though as she looks the most likely to take advantage should the favourite not run his race. Of the rest I would probably side with Postmaster being next best, but the likes of That’s Rhythm, Earth Dream and Zemsky wouldn’t be surprise winners. One thing for certain is it will be a race to saviour and will be the best jumps race seen all summer.

    England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13 No surprise that Luton want him and that would give them a very strong front line, which is what they lacked for most of last season. I was impressed with Paris when I saw him, but Woking have replaced him already. Having said that I cant understand why they are being backed as although they look a mid-table side I cant see them troubling the promotion hopefuls.

    I found this, care to elaborate?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: I found this, care to elaborate? Hunter Chases are the best area of racing to make money. They very rarely throw up a shock result and because most of the betting public are clueless when it comes to them it means you get better prices. Its actually a lot easier than people think to gain a knowledge on what happens in point to points. Ive only started focusing on it for 4 years now and I have turned a profit each season and actually have got better each time. My advice is find what you are good at and ignore the list.

    England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13 First team to be backed is Stockport who are now 25s with Blue Square although 33s still available with Hills. Apparently BS have had money for Woking as well but not surprisingly have kept the price at 80s. Not sure why people would back them there when you can get 100s with the other two though

    England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

    I cringe when I watch him sometimes but, in this league, who is better? Tyler is a cracking keeper but seemed nailed to his goal line yesterday. Ingham? There are plenty of poor starting keepers in the BSP. As far as losing players...well, most of the ones I would want to keep are on contracts and would command a fee. The manager says he has a flexible budget and the Trust had enough balls to gamble turning down £100k for Knight Percival midseason. It didn't work in the end but we were only able to do that as they had started to balance the budget. We might lose one or two but there will not be an e,Odyssey of players. I see FGR have signed another striker today, called Koroma. Will be an interesting season!
    Dont get me wrong I think you can still make the play-offs but I just dont see you being able to win the league at the moment. Ive never heard of that guy who FGR has signed but to get him on a 3 year contract he has obviously been showing plenty of ability in training. They have plenty of strikers now so its a case of moving on to the rest.

    England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13 I did get you wrong last pre season but luckily for me I changed my view pretty quickly once the season started. My one concern for you would be the strength you have once you get past the starting 11. It does amaze me how many clean sheets your keeper has kept, but I wouldnt have him in my team as you know he is going to make a few careless mistakes a season and I want my keeper to be more solid than that. I would be concerned you might lose a few players as well, but it is obviously early stages and plenty to happen in the next couple of months.

    England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13 I must admit I am with Ships and the one team that I thought were too big were Gateshead. The problem is they wont win the league so I would not back them, but I wouldnt have them at 80/1 even if they lost Shaw. I dont fancy Stockport much I think they will need at least another season before they think about even the play-offs. I do agree with Hereford and Macclesfield though and I cant see them doing an awful lot although that might change depending on who Hereford get as manager. I am almost certain last seasons Southport performance was a one off. I just cant see them going close again. The three I fancy at this stage are Luton, Mansfield and FGR, however I would say Alan has priced them up pretty much as I would so I wont be getting involved at the moment. Sorry bartonbank but I dont think Wrexham will repeat what they did this season and I am not sure Grimsby will be able to make that jump to title contenders either. Kiddie dont have any money and Burr does a brilliant job just to get them near the play-offs. Cambridge could go well again and I will keep an eye on Newport but I think they do need a fair bit of work. Alfreton could interest me on the handicap as they were superb in the 2nd half of the season and if they can build on that they might be able to finish top 10.

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