owenclass

Well done Martin Gould

NFL Super Bowl: Carolina Panthers VS Denver Broncos

This feels a little odd, we almost always have an "outright" interest in the Super Bowl, but come into this game's season finale unemcumbered, after the Carolina Panthers landed our Conference bet last weekend. It was nice to get that done and dusted and I "needed" the win and payout, but now that has passed, it would be fun to have a really big position this evening. Having said that, I would not wish to go through the 49ers first and goal from the seven yard line in Super Bowl XLVII ever again and those four plays are etched on my mind by branding iron ! I rarely focus too long on losers, but I am sure that i will be screaming "run the ***** ball" on my deathbed ! If you were involved, you will remember ! Anyway, this has taken a sombre turn, so back to today's game .

I do not have a lot to say to be honest, hence the waffling ! My notes on the two Conference championship games and the outright position on the Panthers can be found below. Carolina eased home 49-15 and in truth it was even easier than that scoreline suggests and only a late season loss has stopped the Panthers having the chance to record a perfect 19/19 campaign this evening, but in some ways that will have released the pressure a little and that looked the case in their three starts since, when they have gone back to their free scoring ways and blitzed opponents early and they have been an average 23 points up at half time in those games, including a combined 55-7 against the two other strongest teams in the NFC.

I expect them to get the job done tonight and with a bit of flair, Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has been the MVP of this season and is nothing if not a showman and we can expect him to be well and truly up for this and I would not be surprised to see him run in at least one, maybe even two touchdowns. His counterpart Peyton Manning is in the twilight ,of the twilight of his career, he is, or has been a superstar of the game, but his arm has gone and he is old school and Newton is the future, the most versatile QB in football and I can only see this ending one way. Denver has a fantastic defense , but even they need to overperform to keep Newton, Olsen, Ginn Jr,  Stewart etc quiet and if they do not, Broncos lack the big play potential to get back into this if they fall more than a touchdown behind. My thinking is that Denver need everything to go right to win this, Carolina could have several big name players a little off and still come up with enough big plays to win and if everything clicks, this could get nasty for the Broncos , with many in the franchise still having nightmares about two years ago and the humiliating 43-8 loss to Seattle and this has the potential to turn equally nasty. To be honest, i hope not, as I need a little more excitement to keep me awake and I would hate to see Manning go out of the game like that, but it is a possibility and a live one. However, I will keep this simple and go with ..........

 Carolina Panthers -6 points 2.12-2.14 Pinnacle/Matchbook ..........both available with Sportmarket Pro

 

I think France will win by Twenty points against Italy

Mixed Doubles final preview :
Elena Vesnina and Bruno Soares vs Coco Vanderveghe and Horia Tecau
Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power
Over 2.5 sets 11/8 paddy power
This match is the last of the doubles matches and i think this match is too close to call as there is no outright favourite Vesnina and Soares are good doubles players and a good doubles team and they have had impressive results against some great teams and they are facing Tecau who is a great doubles players so it will be tough

Back Novak Djokovic to win and both players to win a set for a 5/10 stake at 2.37 with Paddy Power
Still have the outright on Djokovic in play and that one obviously looks very good, but this is the bet that I'd recommend for tomorrow, as the 1.20 for Djokovic is too low imo. Anyway, I fancy this to finish 3-1 or 3-2 in the Serb's favour, Murray just isn't poor enough for this to finish 3-0. The three last of their four previous Australian Open finals had four or five sets and this should continue the trend in my opinion.
Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/australian-open/murray-v-djokovic-2016013002

Mens Doubles Final preview :
Jamie Murray and Bruno Soares vs Daniel Nestor and Radek 
Stepanek
Over 22.5 games 8/11 paddy power
Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power
This is a chance for Murray to finslly win a Mens Doubles Grand slam title and he has a great doubles partner in Soares who has won a Doubles Grand slam so Murray will need his experience to help him win  Their opponents are two of the best Doubles players so it will be tough but i expect Murray and his partner to win in the end

Mens Doubles Final preview :
Jamie Murray and Bruno Soares vs Daniel Nestor and Radek 
Stepanek
Over 22.5 games 8/11 paddy power
Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power
This is a chance for Murray to finslly win a Mens Doubles Grand slam title and he has a great doubles partner in Soares who has won a Doubles Grand slam so Murray will need his experience to help him win  Their opponents are two of the best Doubles players so it will be tough but i expect Murray and his partner to win in the end

Mens Semi final preview :
 
Milos Raonic vs Andy Murray
Over 41.5 games 4/5 paddy power
Murray to win 3-1 5/2 paddy power
Murray to lose first set and win the match 4/1 paddy power
I have seen enough of Murrays opponent to suggest it will a tough match as i have been very impressed with him in this tournament he serms to have improved since he hired a new coach and his serve is more consistent so Murray will have to be on his game if he wants to break his impressive serve also his opponent is starting to come to the net more and is starting to mix it up a bit as his power game can only beat certain players so he has improved his allround game and we are seeing the results Murray though is one the best returners in the game so if there is anyone who can break his serve then he is the man Im thinking that the first set will go to a tie break and maybe his opponent can win that one but the next three will be tight with Murray coming through in the end but only just
 
Womens Doubles final preview :
 
Martina Hingis and Sania Mirza vs Andrea Hlavackova and Lucie Hradecka
Over 19.5 games 10/11 paddy power
We all know that Hingis and Mirza are the favourites but yheir opponents sre good doubles team that wont make it easy for them and i feel that it will be a tough match

Back Milos Raonic (-1.5 sets) to beat Gael Monfils for a 8/10 stake at 1.61 with Paddy Power
Wednesday looks set to be yet another cracking day in Melbourne, as we've got two very intriguing match-ups to look forward to on the men's side of things. The match between Andy Murray and David Ferrer is the obvious highlight, but, considering how well Raonic seems to be playing at the moment, I think that we'll be in for some exciting moments in the other match as well. There won't be as many long rallies, of course, as Raonic will be trying to kill the points off before Monfils outplays him from the back of the baseline, but that doesn't mean that the match will be boring - far from it. Paddy Power have Murray and Raonic as the favourites and that's quite logical, but are there any bets to be had?
When I take a look at the match between Murray and Ferrer, all I can see is the H2H record between the two, which currently stands at 12-6 in Murray's favour. That doesn't look too ugly for the Spaniard, but a closer look reveals that the numbers do lie a little bit. A few years back, Ferrer was the dominant force in this rivalry and he was able to crush Murray whenever they met on clay, but things have changed incredibly quickly and it's Murray who's very much in the driving seat nowadays. The culmination of the trend probably came in last year's Roland Garros, where the Scot was finally able to outplay Ferrer on the Spaniard's favourite surface, beating him 7-6 6-2 5-7 6-1 in what was a pretty straightforward effort. Since then, he's also managed to beat Ferrer in Paris and London - and those matches were also rather easy for the Scot.
The one thing that I'm worried about is that Ferrer has been tremendous up to this point, but I wonder whether that's because of him playing so well or because of him facing sub-par opposition. Don't get me wrong - he's had to play some very good players, but he hasn't had to face any difficult match-ups. Gojowczyk just doesn't have what it takes to compete at the highest level, Hewitt was under tremendous pressure, Johnson is no match for Ferrer from the back of the baseline, and Isner has always struggled against the current world's number eight. That's going to change on Wednesday, as Ferrer will once again face the same old problem - how to beat a Big Four player. Of course, facing Federer would be an even bigger issue for him, but Murray isn't much easier. Unless Murray has an off-day, he'll beat Ferrer without dropping more than a single set. The odds and lines aren't particularly appealing, however, so I'll stay away from the match betting-wise.
Now - according to the record books, Monfils should have the upper hand against Raonic, as he beat him in both of their previous meetings. That was back in 2011 and 2013, however - and we all know what's happened since then. Monfils has gone through some serious health problems and is now pretty much relegated to the second tier of players, while Raonic is slowly making his way up to the highest echelons of the game. He still needs to get a few big results in order to be a major force, but he did take the first steps to achieve that by beating Federer in Brisbane and Wawrinka in the previous round here.
I know that Federer was a bit ill in Brisbane and there are also some rumors about Wawrinka not being completely fit in Melbourne either, but I don't think that it can take anything away from the fact that he's playing his best tennis ever. What's more, it's also possible to still have a few doubts about Monfils at this point, as he's yet to face a strong player in this season. Raonic will be a massive step up from Sugita, Mahut, Robert and Kuznetsov - and I'm not completely sure that he'll be able to overcome this particular challenge. I, for one, will be backing the Canadian on the set handicap.
Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-tips-murray-faces-ferrer-raonic-takes-on-monfils-2016012601
(sorry for the spam, but I'm posting the full thing here today as the link may become inaccessible at some point due to maintenance)

Womens QF Previews. Part 2 :
6pts V.Azarenka to beat Kerber 2-0 4/6 Bet365
Much similar to the Serena / Sharapova match, Azarenka has the curse over Kerber. They have played eachother 6 times and Azarenka has won all 6. 5 of those on the hard courts and 3 of those 5 won in straight sets. Most importantly those 3 were since late 2015 so not long ago atall. I don't see Kerber winning atall, and so it's either this set bet or the games bet and this could easily be 7-6 6-4 so the games handicap is no good for me. Azarenka in 2.
2pts J.Konta to beat S.Zhang 2-1 3/1 Ladbrokes
Anyone following me on this thread will have Konta at 12/1 to win this match so I won't be getting too involved in this one. I do feel it will be close though because I think Konta may not perform to her highest ability now that she is a favourite instead of the underdog. 

Back Andy Murray (-7.5) to beat Bernard Tomic for a 8/10 stake at 2.10 with Paddy Power
Yep, when it's not on it's just not on, so I'll just go for a bet or two from now on for the rest of the Grand Slam so as to not bury myself too deep. On Monday, I'll back Murray to crush Tomic. I still have the outright on Tomic going on, but, given how the two have been playing up to this point, I guess that the Australian can only hope for Murray to be thinking about his family instead of tennis. They've already played 7 sets against each other, with Murray winning all of them - 6-3 6-2 6-3 6-1 7-5 6-3 6-2. That's how bad the match-up is for Tomic and I don't see anything positive for him that would turn things around.
Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-tips-wawrinka-faces-raonic-in-monday-s-highlight-2016012402

Man City are great odds to beat Juventus

David Goffin vs Andy Murray
over 30.5 games 8/11 paddy power
Well im expecting Murray to lose a set as his opponent is a decent player especially on clay but i dont think he will beat Murray because if he plays his best he will win So im expecting a tight first set and four sets

Well done on the Goffin Edmund bet i thought Goffin would win easily

David Cup Final :
 
David Goffin to beat Kyle Edmund 7.5 handicap evens paddy power
Well this should be a straightforward win for Goffin has he is the more experienced player and plus he has had a good year playing well against the top players also he loves this surface and with the home crowd he is a heavy favourite to win this match His opponent though is a decent player but i expect nerves to play a big part and the pressure will get to him on the crucial points So by the end of the day the tie will be one each
 
Ruben Bemelmans vs Andy Murray
over 27.5 games 10/11 paddy power
I think this match wont be so easy for Murray as it is on clay and it depends how much time he has to prepare playing on this surface and his opponent will be more comfortable playing on clay than him as he has been brought up on it plus he will have the crowd behind him so it should give him confidence and he can just play his own game as we all expecting Murray to win
 

Mens Final :
 
Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic
over 22.5 games 10/11 paddy power
over 2.5 sets 15/8 paddy power
Djokovic to lost the first set and win the match 4/1 paddy power
Well it is the final and the two best players in the world are contesting it so it should be a classic Federer won the match in the group stage but i think his opponent was a little bit tired but he looked great in the semi final so he is back to his best and can Federer do it again i think it will be a lot tougher and a lot closer it may go to a third set
 
Mens Doubles Final :
 
Rohan Bopanna and Florin Mergea vs Jean julian Rojer and Horia Tecau
over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power
The doubles final is on first and i think it will be a great final between two great doubles teams but i feel that Rojer and Tecau have been really impressive beating nearly everyone including the best doubles team of all time in the semi finals so they start as favourites but their opponents are also playing well so i expect it to be close

Well done to everyone on your winning bets There have been some great tipping on this thread See you at the next World Cup

New Zealand to score over 50 points might be a good bet

I loved this US Open Well done on all of your winning bets

US Open Preview Mens Singles Final : Novak Djokovic vs Roger Federer Over 44.5 games 10/11 paddy power Djokovic to lose the first set and win the match 4/1 pady power Match goes to five sets 11/4 paddy power Three or more Tie breaks in the match 8/1 paddy power Either player to save match point and win the match 9/1 sky bet Match to go to a fifth set Tie break 7/1 sky bet No breaks of serve in first set 2/1 sky bet Match to be won with an ace 8/1 sky bet Now this is a match i cant wait to see because i would be disappointed if it was not a classic as these two have been best two players in the tournament by some distance The way they have won their matches so easily is quite frightening as the two semi finals were not that easy and for them not to lose a set means they are really on the form of their lives This match i think will be a tight affair and i fancy Federer to win the first set maybe on a Tie break as he always has good start to matches and i think Federer does need to have a good start There will be probaly a few tie breaks in the match as the two players are too good to get broken and the way this is going i think it will go to five sets but if it does then i dont fancy Federer to win that one as he will get tired Womens Doubles Final : Martina Hingis and Sania Mirza vs Casey Dellacqua and Yaroslava Shvedova Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power Im looking forward to this as Hingis will be trying to win her second doubles title of the tournament They are facing a tough team but i feel that even if it goes to a third set Hingis and Mirza should come through as they are the number one doubles team

Fantastic betting Czech How do you do it

US Open preview Womens Singles Final : Flavia Pennetta vs Roberta Vinci Pennetta to win the first set and win the match 8/11 paddy power Pennetta to win the match and serve Most Aces 4/5 sky bet I have a feeling that Pennetta will win this as she will more fresh mentally and physically and i think she is the better while her opponent wont be as fresh and i think the match with Serena will have taken a lot out of her

US Open Day eleven preview Womens Semi final matches : Serena Williams vs Roberta Vinci Serena to win 8.5 game handicap 5/2 paddy power Over 17.5 games 4/5 paddy power Serena to serve over 8.5 aces 11/10 paddy power This will be the match that will decide if she is on course to win the Calender Grand slam I expect her to win and win easily against the veteran playing her first grand slam semi final and yes i know Serena is a veteran as well but she has been there and done and that wont change as it should a very easy win for best player in the world Flavia Pennetta vs Simona Halep Over 20.5 games evens paddy power This match will be tougher to decide on who win this match as people are saying Halep is favourite but i have seen enough of her opponent that it wont easy and is capable of beating her so expect the first set to be a tight affair as it is a semi final Mens Semi final matches : Novak Djokovic vs Marin Cilic Over 34.5 games 8/11 paddy power Djokovic to win 3-1 5/2 paddy power Djokovic to win and both players to a set 7/4 paddy power I think the first set will be so important to decide this match as i think it will probably go to a tie break with Cilic serve being too good for his opponent so a few tie breaks in the match maybe the way to go here but i think Cilic will come up short in this one as his ankle might not last five sets Stanislas Wawrinka vs Roger Federer Over 38.5 games 4/5 paddy power Federer to win 3-1 5/2 paddy power Federer to lose the first set and win the match 3/1 paddy power This will probably the match of the tournament because usually these two always produce some great tennis Wawrinka will be up for this match as he is so close another Grand slam final and after winning the French by beating his opponent along the way he will be confident on beating him again but his opponent is playing great tennis at ther moment so i have feeling this going to be tight so i think four sets or maybe five for me here

US Open Day ten preview Victoria Azarenka vs Simona Halep over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power Azarenka to win 2-1 11/4 paddy power This has the potential to be one of the great matche of the tournament but you always have to worry about Azarenkas opponent as she can play badly in these big matches when most people thinks she can win this title so i expect Azarrenka to win this and hopefully it will be close only if her opponent plays like we know she can play Stanislas Wawrinka vs Kevin Anderson over 42.5 games 8/11 paddy power Wawrinka to 3-1 11/4 paddy power I think Wawrinka was expecting Muuray in the quarters but now he facing a different player so is he thinking that this will an easier match Well he cant think that as his opponent is a dangerous player I think these two are evenly matched and his opponent has won the last four meetings so he is capable of beating Wawrinka I just think Wawrinka will have too much for his opponent and also he has the experience of winning these big matches Richard Gasquet vs Roger Federer over 31.5 games 8/11 paddy power over 3.5 sets 5/4 paddy power Federer to win 3-1 14/5 paddy power When you look at this match you think that Federer is going to win easily but i have a feeling that his opponent will make it a decent match as i have seen signs of him in this tournament that he is playing great tennis as the way he beat Berdych was impressive and i know this is a big step in class but i think he can hold his own against one of the greatest players in history Special bets : Name the Finalists Marin Cliic vs Stanislas Wawrinka 18/1 paddy power Victoria Azarenka vs Serena Williams 7/2 paddy power This is a great bet as thee two are Grand slam champions who loves this tournament and both them can win this I know it will difficult for both of them to win their semi finals but there are two players who have improved so much from last year they are capable of beating anyone even two of the greatest players all time The other finalists I think will be Azarenka to meet Serena as they are two best players left in the tournament