homunculus
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Posts posted by homunculus
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Re: May 21 - May 26
Yes' date=' but so people can stake the some picks? But i don't see problems, maybe a little bit late.[/quote'] No pun intended, man. Just that is looks funny, kinda like as if you copy the tips from the others. Personally, I avoid this by citing the original poster and adding that I follow at price X with bookie Y. -
Re: May 21 - May 26
Hard to tell whether Paire wins, but definitely this is duplicated here. See KavkaZ couple of posts earlier on this page :-)Roger-Vasselin - Paire Two Frenchmens will be facing eachother here. Like to play Paire, who had showing some great perfomance and form on clay the last weeks. I like his game and he showed that he can beat a lot of players when he is in form. Roger is a good player, but it's not good for him dat Paire know how he played. I think he can make it difficult here for Paire, but he don't win here today. 2/10 Paire ML @ 1.65 Pinnacle -
Re: May 13 - May 20
Don't want to sound too funny, but the fact is that I saw a similar reasoning last year in Madrid when Lu was about to play with Verdasco :rollinGuess how it ended? Lu won 7-6 7-5 at odds above 10.0, I remember I placed a small amount on Lu in that match without really hoping for success, just thinking that the bad shape of Nando he was in at that moment perhaps shows up, and it did :-) Not telling that your reasoning lacks sense, just recalling a real life story :-)Surprised anyone didn't post this one. Xavier Malisse to beat Yen Hsun Lu 2-0. 1.8 at bet365 Statistics speak for themselves here, Lu has played only 17 matches in his career up to now (28 year old) winning three of them, the guy has neither the strength needed to hit winners on a slow surface neither the stamina or speed to outplay his opponent although when playing against Malisse speed or stamina aren't such an issue. Lu also seems to be in a rather poor form and has stepped down to playing mostly on the challenger tour and the mandatory events. Here i guess he came to play to have at least a match under his belt before the RG. I think there's some good value here, i'm going to go with a 5/10 confidence on this one, if Malisse wouldn't be such an indolent pig i would go with a higher stake but the guy is a joke sometimes, this match really should be a walk in the park for him -
Re: May06-13 No bets for the semis? And what about the finals?
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Re: May06-13
Cilic's win against Isner yesterday was mandatory, because Big John played as I probably would if I stood on the court instead of him. It was total disaster, John deliberately leaving balls that landed more than 1 m away from him to their fate. No return, huge unforceds. Only his serve kept him in the match, but this has to fail in the tie-breaks. And it failed. I would not read much from Cilic's victory over Isner.Think this will be my final selection for today. - Marin Cilic +4.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro (ATP Madrid Masters 1000 series) @ 1.87 with panbet This has the potential to be a very, very good match, and I feel the bookies are underestimating Cilic a little bit here. Cilic seems to be getting back to his best after 2011 was blighted by injury. His win over big Isner yesterday was huge because it showed that he can deal with top 10 players on this surface. He served well and played the clutch moments in the tie-break with aplomb and that will serve him well against Delpo. The biggest thing that goes against Cilic is that he was spanked by the Argentine on Davis Cup duty a month or so ago. That was on clay but it was also in Buenos Aires, where Del Potro had a massive advantage with home support. It was also on red clay, which Cilic isn't at his best on. It's the surface that I think could make the most difference here. The blue clay is quicker and at altitude it can play like a hard court. Cilic has run Delpo close and beaten him twice on a hard court before and the conditions here certainly play in his favour. The quicker the court, the more problems he'll pose the Argentine. His coach, Bob Brett, predicted big things from Cilic this year, and I think we're starting to see that come to the table now. Delpo wasn't entirely convincing against Youzhny yesterday and a similar sort of match against an in-form Cilic would be no surprise. Confidence: 7/10 :hope
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Re: May06-13 Not going to put much in it this week, but this one seems to be a good starter Kerber vs V.Williams over 21 games @1.98 Pinnacle (2/10) I expect a real battle here. Angelique is a fav in this match, clearly because of the doubts about Venus' fitness, but I would put more trust into Venus. She went quite far in both tournaments she attended after her return (Miami, Charleston), and I would say that R2 is not the phase she should show signs of the fatigue.Angelique can struggle against big hitters (lost to Kvitova in Stuttgart), so Venus should be able to keep her serve relatively comfortably. But I would not feel safe in plus HCP, which is only 1.5 games, and I consider result like 76 63 for Angelique quite probable. I put only 2 pts in this stake, because I do not want to overheat before I actually see the players in action (I did not watch R1). This match is scheduled as the last on the main court, so this also should be fun to watch with a bottle of good red wine at hands. All opinions welcome, Atko, Fishy, Baffling aka ImLovinIt and others. BTW, I wonder where is Psycho, I did not see his post for quite a long time.
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Re: April 30-May 6
I am not going to be engaged much this week, because I have some work to be done and will not be following the matches that closely. But MHO tells me that Nalby should lose as the odds suggest - his doublefaults record in Serbia was plain awful. Milos is rested and should kil him. Milos -2.5 seems to be value here, but again I say It's just my first opinion without having done much research. And as to your Monfils bet - Gael's status is injured according to Matchstat - something with his abdominal or stomach which is his favourite injury. Personally, I would not touch Clownfils except hard/i-hard played in France provided he is fully fit. And Anduclown beating Dolgo, I see it rather improbable - man, Dolgo took Djoker to three sets in Monte Carlo, while Anduclown choked the match with Paire big time yesterday. Dolgo should win IMO. So those are my "first impression" opinions, but again,I have not done much research on them. BOL with your plays. And, sir, do not call me "Homo" next time, please :-)That could only hinder Milos being as tall as he is. What do you reckon Atko/Homo/Fishy ... ? -
Re: April 30-May 6
+12.2 pts this week +50.7 pts this seasonBMW Final Kohli to bt Cilic @2.49 Pinnacle (10/10) :ok -
Re: April 30-May 6
I am not telling this does not come through, but with Vinci having won their last two encounters, and with Vinci being excellent claycourter, and with the mental fragility of Cibulkova that is able to lose the already won match (see her match vs Azarenka at Miami), and with Cibulkova's recent loss to Amanmurad on Stuttgart clay, I would not take this, especially not at the 1.5ish price.. Perhaps if that were at evens, then maybe. But BOL to your plays.[...snip...] Cibulkova to beat Vinci @1.50(Unibet) [...snip...] -
Re: April 30-May 6
Thx. It has been fixed in the meantime. BET365 would not have been an option for me, anyway - I dropped my account there after BET365 started to show disrespect to their customers (the "free account with stream access" changed to "stream access only for accounts with a deposit", a deposit started to require full personal data authentication etc etc. So this is where my signature comes from :-)bet365 has the match -
Re: April 30-May 6 To the TennisTV users - I just wanted to launch LIVE stream from Nalby-Seppi, but these idiots have wrong link - it delivers a catchup from Paire-Andujar instead. Is this how the irony of fate usually looks like or what? :@ BMW Final Kohli to bt Cilic @2.49 Pinnacle (10/10) H2H is actually 4-3 for Kohli, and Kohli this week is a man on the mission. They played together in the second round of Munich three years ago, and Marin won as the underdog 6-0 6-4. One week later they met in R2 in Madrid, and this time Kohli won as the underdog in a tight three setter. I watched Kohli against Lopez today, and he was flawless. Absolutely flawles. Not even a small chance for Felicity. Marin is huge server and posesses a killing forehand, but is also mentally weak. With huge home crowd support and current form, Kohli should get his revenge and win the title. His stakes are much higher than those of Cilic, and this should IMO be the factor. As to 10/10 mark, this is NOT confidence (which would mean certainity), but simply this reflects the fact that I am willing to put maximum stake on this final bet of the week, fully acception the risk of ending the week with -12.7 pts loss. The reward would be the long face of the German :-) GL :hope
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Re: April 30-May 6
I don't say this does not come through, but Safarova's status is injured - left elbow. At least MatchStat says so. I was not able to find any further info in the meantime. Now because she is lefty, this is important :-)Safarova to beat Kanepi in the Madrid Masters @ Evens with Panbet -
Re: April 30-May 6
OMG, Anduclown in hist best. Breaks Benoit early, confirms, then loses 5 games in a row. Benoit is a headcase, but Anduclown easily beats him in this. I should have been warned by his last year's Bucharest's final with Flo Mayer - this clown also lead 3-1 in 1st set and lost 36 16. But that he repeats this today again, I did not see that coming... This gets me another 0.8 pts down today. -2.7 pts this week +35.8 pts this seasonVesnina +5 games > Errani @2.04 Pinnacle (5/10) WIN Vesnina to bt Errani @4.35 Pinnacle (1/10) LOSS Andujar -4 > Paire @2.01 Pinnacle (5/10) LOSS -
Re: April 30-May 6
Man, you just took it from my mouth - I switched the computer on to announce this bet, but you were the first :-) Vesnina +5 games > Errani @2.04 Pinnacle (5/10) Vesnina to bt Errani @4.35 Pinnacle (1/10) Vesnina completely underrated in this one. The fact is that she did suck during the hardcourt weeks earlier this year. But she always flourishes when the clay comes. Last year she made it to the final in Charleston, this year she was unlucky because she met THE SERENA, the ultimate Charleston winner, in the draw. Budapest is her next tournament after Charleston, and she has shown so far that she means it. Errani is really good, but is she that much better? These two have never played against each other, so there is also a chance for an upset. also going for Andujar -4 > Paire @2.01 Pinnacle (5/10) OK, I labelled Paire as the "greatest player of all times" yesterday :-), but I did not mean it that literally. He was lucky Jarkko was too tired, but today his end came. Andujar is very experienced claycourt player. Yesterday Benoit demonstrated that he can easily lose concentration and get bagelised if things do not go the right way for him, so I took somewhat bigger hcp than the default -3.5 for this match. These two did not play against each other so far, but I would rule out the upset in this one.Budapest Grand Prix Final' date= Tennis - Sat 5/5 Vesnina +5 games to beat Errani @1.98 Pinnacle -
Re: April 30-May 6
Thx. Your Wawa bet was superb, too, unfortunately I don't bet Estoril this week because I can't acces quality streams from this area. Good work.You are sic! -
Re: April 30-May 6
My deepest apology to the greatest player of all times, the big Benoit Paire :-)) This brings me to bearable balance this wek. -1.9 pts this week +36.6 pts this season
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Re: April 30-May 6 Paire actually trying to lose this match as quickly possible :wall I don't konw whether this has to do something with him entering Madrid qualies tomorrow, or what (I was unable to find detailed info on the official Madrid web site, Spaniards simply do not care much about providing any useful info). What a dreadful week ...
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Re: April 30-May 6 Baggy does not look good, going for one match in Beograd Paire to bt Nieminen @2.04 Pinnacle (5/10) Jarkko just finished his two-sets long part two of the match against Veic. I looked at this match, and it semed to me that Jarkko is losing gas and starting to make more unforceds as the match proceeded. Veic was just too dumb to take advantage. Benoit comes fresh to this match, and posesses huge serve which should trouble Jarkko. This bet is based on the assumption that to play a match about 2-3 hours after difficult two sets against Veic should be too much for Jarkko.
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Re: April 30-May 6
Good tip, junesixth. I also appreciate the attempt to track your record, but Wins/Losses ratio tells nothing. You might regularly bet DjokoNadal to beat some #100+ rank, and your win/loss ratio could be 40:1, yet you will be in red numbers with the real money. If you want to track your record, sum up the points won.Very tight indeed. My Wins/Losses: 2:1 -
Re: April 30-May 6 I said I m not goint to discuss the issue anymore, but Atko lifted this again and wants feedback. So first please don't be harsh to Shor. What he has done was that he did object to the bet - perhaps he could have put it in a less controversial manner by not using the "utter joke" wording, but basically he was right, and this IMO was a lesson for him. Second - I would not ban anyone as long as he does not use names calling and/or spans the forum. Overbloated ego of ImLovingIt was just funny to watch, and personally I don't understand why this was annoying anyone - IMO it did not went over board, he was not flagrantly offending anyone. But third - he told he is done with this place, so perhaps we are discussing this in vain :-) But if he accepts Atko's generous offer, he might take something to learn from the cause.
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Re: April 30-May 6
As far as I am concerned, I found ImLovingit's self-overappreciating habits funny rather than annoying. He gave this forum kinda atmosphere, though perhaps this may have upset some people. I don't know. It was not upsetting me. I learned how to read him. I would vote for letting him here, cos he was improving IMO, his dancing bananas gradually grew smaller :-), and his bets vere mostly value. But you 've got the correct access buttons, so you are the boss, you rule. I am not going to discuss this issue anymore.I appreciate the reply but it's time to go. There are a lot of people who don't want you here. You cause too much trouble. It's only going to get even more messy as the season goes on. This happened last year and it is happening again, right now. Every few months this discussion crops up. It's too much of a coincidence for it to be happening countless times. I know you won't agree, but for the forum as a whole, it's not worth the aggro. I wish you all the best with your betting. But truly, the forum needs you out of its hair. Adieu. -
Re: April 30-May 6
Eh, I won't play I don't understand you :-) This indeed referred to your Hanescu bet. No pun intended, I really appreciate most of your inputs, though you just demonstrated that the confidence mark must be taken with grain of salt. But you ran into this yourself, bro :-) You'll have to swallow the inevitable. I wish you your ego will heal quickly.You trying to say something? Or trying to cause an argument? Coz if you are trying to cause an argument then I'd jus edit the post. -
Re: April 30-May 6
Kohli was better, Ernest still not delivering his maximum. Sorry. But I wrote this is a shot, didn't I? No words about utter gifts or something like that, and it was marked 2/10 :-) -2.1 pts this week +36.4 pts this seasonGulbis to bt Kohlschreiber @3.20 Pinnacle (2/10) LOSS -
Re: April 30-May 6 Munich Gulbis to bt Kohlschreiber @3.20 Pinnacle (2/10) Gulbis is one of the most tricky players on the tour. When he has his day, he can beat anyone, and he can also lose to anyone if he lacks motivation. It seems to me that after he has lost his opening matches in previous two tournaments, he might have decided to try in Munich. Kohli is basically a pusher with good movement, no really huge serve, and on clay he is not very reliable. Ernest is known for his killer serves and the stats from his opening match with Malisse look good. At these unrealistic odds worth a shot IMO. Not going for hcp, because this will be either Ernest crushing Kohli, or vice versa. Under 21.5 at 1.8ish could also be an option, but going with better price.
French Open 2012
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: French Open 2012 Just a note to Kuzzy backers - Kuzzy retired in Fes against Begu with thigh injury. She lost everything since then, axcept two rounds against easy opponents here at FO. Lucic was tragical, not really wanting to fight, and 6-4 7-6 against #151 Chan is not what I would call convincing victory. Don't say Kuzzy is not going to win, just wanted to some info. BOL with your plays anyway.