homunculus
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Posts posted by homunculus
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Re: April 22 - April 28 Baroni vs Li Na O19 @2.23 Pinnacle (3/10) Since 2009 Li Na routinely comes to Stuttgart after couple of week's rest after Miami. However, she never gets very far here - usually she ends in R2, last year she made it one round further. This year she is seeded and plays her first match in R2. She should be a little rusty (last year she played 76 64 with Safarova), and as such she should not win easy over competent opponents. WTA Stuttgart Double Ivanovic (vs Petrova) x Jankovic (vs Lisicki) @2.21 Pinnacle (3/10) Petrova did not convince me against nobody Pfizenmayer. She made tons of unforced errors and had to even play tie-break in the first set. Anna leads H2H 3-1 on clay (last match she has won last year in Madrid 75 61) and I though her win over Petkovic should be taken with a grain of salt because Petko is recovering from injuries, I trust her not to make as many errors as Nadia does. JJ was very good yesterday against Stosur (I was involved LIVE and made some bucks placing wager at 2.10 on JJ before she broke Stosur the first time). She really means it here and definitely should dispose of bum-bum Lisicki that was broken twice by the inexperienced 21 yr old Italian Burnett in her yesterday's match. JJ leads H2H 3-0, and they already met in Stuttgart in 2009: JJ won 75 57 63.
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Re: April 22 - April 28
Fully agree with your analysis and that there is a value on Kvitova at current odds. Still I really doubt that she would be priced evens in match against Sharapova' date=' I think that she would be a solid underdog in the match.[/quote'] Kvitova against MaSha was 1.6ish fav last year in semis in this tournament (Stuttgart), and she was 2.45 underdog last year at French Open semi. IMO IF she gets into finals, the bookies should realize that she is back and I'd expect smthing like 1.8-2.6, which is far from being solid underdog. However, this is still a long shot. I just explained wher did I get my figures. adding: going into repeated Berdy massage, I think with H2H 10-2 and current Berdy (bad) form, Davy just cannot be 3.3ish underdog in Barcelona: Davydenko to bt Berdych @3.36 Pinnacle (2/10) Berdy just can't find his rhythm on clay this year, and with being terriobly defeated by Fognini last week in Monte Carlo (Foggy was 4.5 underdog and Berdy did not even get a set), it's hard to understand why Berdy should be the big fav in this one. Not saying Berdy is not going to win this, but I'd have him at evens at the best. -
Re: April 22 - April 28
The lousy Cibulkova realised she would get doublebagel and decided to withdraw :lol Anyway, I placed a future on WTA Stuttgart: Player to win Porsche Grand Prix 2013: Kvitova @11.3 Pinnacle (2/10) I trust Kvitova here. She has been quite poor recently, but with the performance she delivered in Palermo on Sunday, I think she's got her self confidence back - after being a set down and 1-2 in the second set in the match with Errani, she has won 11 games in a row, thus giving Errani bagel on Sara's favourite surface (slow clay) in Sara's home country. I just don't get how Sara could be @8.6 (hence bigger fav than Kvitova) here. Stuttgart's clay is indoor clay in Porshe arena, which is faster, and the indoor conditions suits Petra much better than outdoor clay courts. I'd say that the only serious opponents for Petra here are Li Na (they can meet in QF), and, of course, the top seed Sharapova (they can meet in the Final). Kvitova in final should be around evens against Masha, and in QF against Li Na Petra shud be around 1.6-1.7. Odds 11+ are big value to me.Ka.Pliskova to bt Dominika Cibulkova @3.38 Pinnacle (2/10) VOID -
Re: April 22 - April 28 I am going to focus on WTA Stuttgart this week, but one match at WTA Fes caught my attention WTA Fes Tuesday 23.4.2013: Ka.Pliskova to bt Dominika Cibulkova @3.38 Pinnacle (2/10) Ka.Pliskova is young talented player with big potential. She is not that much experienced yet, and that's the reason she got steamrolled 1-6 0-6 by Vinci at Katowice (indoor) clay tournament last week. However, she posess huge serve and did beat Kanepi last week, which is IMO good result. The main reasoning for this bet, however, is the fact that Dominika just played Fed Cup in Moscow on Sunday and has to unedrgo a tiresome travel to Marocco. Moreover, SVK team did blow the 2-0 lead over RUS, and Dominika was the key factor in it when she played the 3-rd match vs Kirilenko. She managed to break Kirilenko first in each set and also managing to fukk the whole thing up by weak serves and lot of backhand errors. Dominika is a known headcase, and short time after hilarious defeat together with non-easy jurney is going to bring her down. Karolina had a break since her match in Katowice and is ready to show good performance. These two never played together so far.
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Re: April 14 - April 21 Kohli played like stupid idiot and kill me if the number of serves he managed to return exceeded 5. However, he managed to cover the overs , albeit very close, ufff. Healthy 12.5 pts profit for today. Plus 8.3 pts from that Goffin match it takes me to +20 pts for the tournament which is enough. Keeping the Murray future running and see ya next week or so.
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Re: April 14 - April 21 Kohlshreiber vs Nadal O17.5 @2.17 Pinnacle (5/10) See above. IMO Kohli is fully capable of winning 6 games if Marinko Matosevic managed to win 3 (including 1 break!). In fact, 5 games is enough if Kohli manages to get them in the same set. Kohli is no pushover on clay, did won Munich tournament last year, and , as already said above, did actually beat Nadal last year (on grass).
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Re: April 14 - April 21 Taking some early market odds: T. Berdych vs F. Fognini @4.550 Pinnacle (2/10) Berdy did not look good at all vs. Granollers. He was broken first in both sets, and was lucky Marc always choked the lead away. Berdy has been complaining about fatigue lately and that was also the reason he did not join CZ Davis Cup team in Astana (KAZ) 10 days ago. I'd say that he is still tired. Foggy already did beat him on clay - namely in this very tournament 4 years ago, so there are chances. P. Kohlschreiber vs R. Nadal @29.680 Pinnacle (0.5/10) These odds are a joke. I did not like Nadal at all today vs this dumbhead Marinko Matosevic. The result (6-1 6-2) is flattering because this should have been something like 6-4 6-4. Marinko lost the match in his head before the match even started and his terrible UE's spoke for all. Kohli did beat Nadal on grass last year (in his home country in Halle), and though Nadal already had problems with his knees then, it looks probable that his problems persist - no movement against Matosevic, all Nadal's points were won by amazing shot placement. Kohli is dropshot master, and is going to test Nadal's knees to the limits. Waiting for the lines to appear - Kohli took a set off Nadal on hard court last year in Doha (where Nadal was healthy), so perhaps the overs will be the BIG stake - with 30ish ML I can see the line to be around 17, LOL. This ML wager I am ready to trade on the first occasion.
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Re: April 14 - April 21 Most entertaining match this Monaco-Gulbis, LOL. Never in my life I've seen GAME (not POINT) penalty (though I have already seen match lost due to disqualification - London's final Nalby vs Cilic where Nalby got fired because he involuntarily injured a linesman). The funny thing is I had small LIVE bet on Gulbis to break back in that dropped out game that was never played :-) edit some 4 hours later - I love Pinnacle - the wager on the game 3 set 3 (that actually never took place) has been cancelled. So I got my money back.
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Re: April 14 - April 21
Hi Torque, interesting writeup, but what do you think about Wawa's recent shamefull loss to Robredo? I mean this meltdown after having won 6-1 the first set. Did he lose on purpose? What do you think?Back Stanislas Wawrinka to win ATP Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters @ 85.00 Betfair [... snip ...] -
Re: April 14 - April 21 Goffin (+1.5 sets) to bt Almagro @Pinnacle 2.66 (5/10) Mugro just managed to show kinda meltdown in sunday's Houston final across the sea. He is scheduled to play tuesday 3PM local time in Monte Carlo. He should be pissed off, tired, and suffer a jet-lag. Goffin is no pushover on clay - he had nice run last year at French Open where he took a set off Federer in round four. I bet he is going to start on Mugro the hard way. And with Mugro's acknowledged weak nerves, he's got pretty good chance.
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Re: April 14 - April 21 Not big fan of futures, but this one looks quite good: Murray to win Monte Carlo @15.53 Pinnacle (1/10) With Federer and Ferrer out and Djoker's ankle in question there are only three serious opponents: Nadal who "owns" this tournament, Del Potro and possibly Berdych (who ousted Murray out last year here). Del Potro did not look good at all in Miami, and Berdych is known choker, so I shall assume that Andy, who is now better player than last year, is going to dispose both, or more precisely, any of them, because the only match he could meet DelPo or Berdych is the final. Now, of course, there is Nadal. If all goes well, these two can meet in the semis, which will be their 4-th match in this event. Murray did already beat Nadal, though never on clay. However, despite Rafa's apparently superb shape after his south American return, his knee should still be considered the issue, IMO, and Andy should have fair chance in that match. The odds are worth the risc, I think.
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Re: April 8 - April 14
WOW! That was massacre ... Vinci just too good, too good. Going to support her HUGE tomorrow against Petra Kvitova - IMO Petra should be a fav in that match, so the odds should be favourable.Hi guys, my first contribution after small pause, and namely another "new Pinnacle Parlay" Kvitova vs Cadantu U19 x Vinci vs Beck O20 @3.57 (3/10) LOSS -
Re: April 8 - April 14 Hi guys, my first contribution after small pause, and namely another "new Pinnacle Parlay" Kvitova vs Cadantu U19 x Vinci vs Beck O20 @3.57 (3/10) Kvitova looks better and better in this tournament, and she is rightly a fav in this match. Cadantu is very talented young Roumanian player, but it was too much for her this week - this is going to be her 7-th match in Katowice (she never played 7-matches in a row in her whole career) and last two matches were tight three setters. I doubt there is anything left in the tank to be serious opponent for Kvitova. Kvitova with her offensive tennis and killer serve is not going to let her win points in the rallies and the match should be over soon. It's hard for me to admit this as I prefer bet against Petra most of the times, but I am afraid Cadantu is going to collapse in the 2-nd set the way Camerin has done in her match yesterday. Vinci, on the other hand, can hardly be considered BIG SERVER. She plays precise field tennis with intelligent shot selection and makes hardly any unforced error. However, Anica Beck plays offensive cheeky tennis, and I liked the way she destroyed Camerin yesterday. She is good claycourt player, has won couple of challengers last year. Roberta and Anica never played together, so Roberta does not know what to expect. Also, Anica is rested as she did not play qualies here and came to this tournament right after Miami. I'd say that 20 games is bit low for this match.
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Re: April 8 - April 14 Not quite sure what thread to post the question in, but anyone aware what happened in Shmiedlova x Cornet match in Katowice today? I could not get a stream, so I watched scoreboard, and it became frozen for good 15-20 minutes at 0-1 30-40 Cornet in the 1st set. Schmiedlova steamrolling Cornet from then on. I caugt a note that this was NOT medical pause. Can someone pls shed a light on this?
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Re: March 18 - March 31 Another PINNY Parlay: (Haas vs Ferrer O22.5) x (Gasquet vs Murray O22) @3.78 (3/10) I'd say that both these semi matches have the potential to become CLASSIC. Ferrer did beat Haas both times they met, but that was 5 yrs ago. Tommy is riding on adrenaline by now and he is ready to die on the court, so the heavy schedule in past couple of weeks is not going to let him down. Ferrer had some troubles against Melzer, so he should not feel very comfortable against Tommy. In the end David should win this, but it's going to be a battle. As to Gasquet vs Murray, the ML odds 4.0 on Gasquet are tempting, too, but somehow I feel Andy is going to win this match. These two always played tight battles (except grass - the less favouirite Gasquet's surface where Andy beat him 3-0 at Wimby 2011), but other than that Gasquet always took at least one set. H2H is 4-3 for Andy, but no way this is going to be an easy match for him.
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Re: March 18 - March 31 Gasquet to bt Berdych @3.26 Pinnacle (3/10) The price is just unbelievable. Considering that in all their 8 previous meetings (H2H 4-4) Gasquet's price was around 2.30 - 2.90 (except 2007 Tokyo where he was a 1.60ish fav), one wonders what makes the bookies to believe Tomas is going to win this match. The fact is, that he massacred Sam Querrey yesterday, but Sam played really, really poor, not believing he could ever win this and was making stupid errors. Tomas only slightly improved his game when compared to disasters against Gimeno-Traver and Falla, but his forehand unforceds remained as horrible as throughout the whole Miami tournament. On the other hand, Gasquet had good win over Mugro, who was firing aces all over, but thanks to his mental unstability he could not deliver after winning the first set. IMO Tomas is even bigger choker than Mugro, he is not playing in good shape here, and this price is a must.
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Re: March 18 - March 31 NEW Pinnacle PARLAY Raonic to bt Querrey (1.543) X Dimitrov - Murray O 21 (1.943) @3.00 (3/10) Sam really did not impress me against Kubot. He was hit'n miss most of the time and was lucky the Pole fukked it up in the decider. Milos should dispose of him easily. As to Dimitrov - Murray: Dimitrov should be well rested for this match, because he played only one set so far (BYE in R1, Bolleli retd in R2). Dimitrov has got huge serve, and if we take into account the fact that Andy often makes things complicated for him when he plays against huge underdogs, I think that 21 games is little bit too low for this match. They already played in Brisbane on hard earlier this year, and it ended 76 64 for Andy.
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Re: March 18 - March 31
fkking Kerber folded with bagel after having lost the 1st set 4-6. What a shame, what an galactic ineptness! Mixed bag yesterday, but at least no loss (+0.88 u)Kerber - Cirstea over 20.5 games @1.943 Pinnacle (4/10) TOUGH LOSS Zakopalova to bt Kirilenko @3.44 Pinnacle (2/10) GOOD WIN -
Re: March 18 - March 31 Kerber - Cirstea over 20.5 games @1.943 Pinnacle (4/10) Kerber never plays too well in Miami. 2nd round was her maximum so far. Now she is in round 3, and facing Sorana Cirstea. Kerber struggled in here pevious match against Cesca Shiavonne, who is not the greatest player on hard. Sorana and Angelique met last year in Hobart, and Angelique has won 60 36 75. Sorana is no pushover, and I think that 20.5 games is far too low for this match. Zakopalova to bt Kirilenko @3.44 Pinnacle (2/10) I understand why Kirilenko is the fav here, but... Zako is streaky player and apparently in good form here in US. H2H is 3-2 for MaKiri, but Zako won last two matches. And Makiri played too much tennis lately, she retired 5 weeks ago in Doha, and she had a medical timeout last week in IW, so I think the odds are worth small punt.
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Re: March 18 - March 31 Kvitova vs Flipkens over 20.5 games @Pinnacle 2.06 (5/10) Kvitova never plays her top game on US hard courts, this is her long recognised feature. The cause is the hot and humid conditions and relatively slow courts. In IW, she started slow struggling against Govortsova and Tsurenko, then she saved forces in a strange match with her compatriot Zakopalova before she ultimately lost in QF with Maria Kirilenko in a tough three setter played on one of the hottest days in IW. In Miami, she started slow again, losing the first set vs Peng, before she managed to regroup and win the next two sets convincingly 6-2 6-2. With Kirsten Flipkens, I expect something similar. H2H is 1-1, and the match Petra has won indoors in her best season 2011 during Bel-CZE Fed Cup went over this line, too. On the other hand, I doubt Kirsten is going to steamroll Petra in two straight sets - something like this happened only twice this year - when Petra lost to Mladenovic in Paris (she underestimated unknown Mladenovic) and to Cibulkova in Sydney (was in really bad form there). Flipkens is no pushover, she took a set off Azarenka in IW, and therefore I expect tigh battle with Kirsten stealing a set.
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Re: March 4 - March 17 Strange match between Kvitova and Zako yesterday. Played on non-televised court, Kvitova billion times 0-30 down, then won the game by 4 straight points. Zako was due to bagel in the 2nd set, but won 3 love (at least I think they all were love) games in a row from 0-5... That smels big time. I second Czech in Makiri to bt Kvitova
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Re: March 4 - March 17 Back Klara Zakopalova to bt Kvitova @4.35 Pinnacle (3/10) First - these two met twice on challenger level in 2007 (in Czech Rep), and Klara won both matches. Second - Klara is a streaky player, did defend round 4 here in IW, and certainly would be pleased to go further. On the road, she defeated quality opponents Cibulkova and Peer. Third - Kvitova is known to never play well on US hard courts. She has problems with asthma, and Florida/Miami hot conditions do not suit her. Her past results in IW: 2010 - Lost to Pennetta in R2, 2011 - Lost to Zahlavova-Strycova in R1, 2012: Lost to McHale in R3. This year is exceptional in that she got to R4, but she made it by beating two low-rated opponents Govortsova and Tsurenko, and she had big troubles with both. Today's match is scheduled shortly after noon (second match on court 7), and it should be a hot day today - near 30 degrees centigrade, no wind. IMO Klara should capitalize. I have been considering overs, too, but chances are good Petra is going to collapse and I would hate going for O20.5 with Petra losing 3-6 4-6.
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Re: February 18 - February 24 Kvitova to bt A.Radwanska @2.400 Pinnacle (7/10) The bookies have this one wrong, IMO. Kvitova seems to have recovered mentally from her choke against Serena QF last week. On the other hand, ARad's performance yesterday against Putintseva was very, very below-par. Had Putintseva been more exeperienced, and did not fire the balls out in the moments all she had to do was to quietly place the ball into court empty space, ARad would have been defeated in R2. ARad's movement was bad, her shots lacked strength, and except the couple of spectacular defensive lobs she did not show anything worth mentioning. Also, ARad always struggles with big hitters, and her own serve should not trouble Kvitova much. And with H2H 3-1 for Petra.... I do not bet in Kvitova's favour very often cos she is huge choker and did cost me nice amounts in the past, but this match looks worth to make an exception.
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Re: February 11 - February 17 Benneteau +4.5 to bt Federer @2.120 Pinnacle (5/10) Julien in "big serving dick" mode, but the main resoning for this bet is that Fedex, as he grews older, does not want to spend too many forces at trying to bagelise his opponent. We saw this yesterday in his match against poor De Bakker (63 64). One break a set is just enough, and if Julien serves first, this should be OK.
April 22 - April 28
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: April 22 - April 28
Not the best 1st half. bad luck (Berdy escaped from matchpoint) and bad judgement (the JJ match should have been OVERS instead of JJ ML). Kvitova future still running. Taking a pause.