homunculus
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Posts posted by homunculus
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Re: French Open 2013 Back Klizan to bt Nadal @61.0 Pinnacle (0.5/10) OK, it's a waste of money you will say, and most probably you will be true. However - you never beat bookies by betting the obvious. And I've got the impression that Nadal may be ripe for the BIG surprise of this year FO. He lost a set against dumb hitter Brands, and had to go through tie-break lottery in the second. He was lucky, and Brand lost the steam in the end. Klizan is much brighter player than Brands. He's got serve of the comparable quality, but he is better in baseline rallies. Not that anyone could compete with Nadal in baseline rallies - when he is in-form. Somehow I feel he is not, and I am ready to test it at the cost of half unit.
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Re: May 20 - May 25
Thanks for the cheer, but you probably did not watch the match, otherwise you would have only words of hate for me, mate ;) Jamie was losing 1-5 in the decider, but Flipkens massively choked. Jamie made 6 games in a row from that point, winning the decider 7-5. WTA requires strong nerves, but this one was little bit to much even for me... Glad I did not let down my followers, though.:notworthy Fantastic tip, that's what we all needed....I thank you -
Re: May 20 - May 25
Never in slightest doubt, LOL. Guys, this was the type of match that makes everyone love betting WTA :gimme . +9.1 u this week.Hampton to bt Flipkens @2.52 Pinnacle (6/10) :ok -
Re: May 20 - May 25 OK, I told I would not post till FO, but I lied :-) Hampton to bt Flipkens @2.52 Pinnacle (6/10) As it happened, Brussels schedule is rather tight bacause of the weather. Both Hampton and Flipkens played their R1 matches today, Hampton beating Yanina Wickmayer in a quality 3-set match, Flipkens beating lame Madison Keys (about zillion backhand unforceds) in a 3-setter 6-4 1-6 6-2. Flipkens had problems with her back relatively recently, which casused her to retire in the match against Goerges in Stuttgart. Since then, she defeated only the out-of-form Mona Barthel, and today she managed to defeat rather inconsistent Keys. Hampton has not stellar record on clay this year, too, but her performance today against Wickmayer was outstanding. H2H is 2-0 for Hampton, though both matches were on hard (Australian open 2012 and Miami 2011). The only factor speaking in favour of Flipkens is home soil - but that was Wickmayer's case, too. I noticed that Jamie had bandaged right wrist during the match, but I have no reports about injury, and her schedule recently was rather light, so this is probably nothing serious. However, this is the only reason I am not going 8/10. GL. edit: I forget to stress out that they play in about 1-2 hours TODAY.
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Re: May 13 - May 19
that's -6 u for today, which brings me back to +13.7 u in Rome. Of course, in real life the play was to hedge either after 1st set (odds about 4.3 on Halep), or in the decider after JJ lost her 3-0 lead and managed to break again thus getting to 4-3 and serving (odds about 3.2 on Halep). That was the point I started to doubt, considering the bagel in the second. Looks like the results are getting too hard to predict. I grab my 13 u profit and see ya at Rolland Garros. edit: I am not going to post tips till RO, but guys - tomorrow Halep-Serena unders (whatever they are) is a lock :-)Jankovic to bt Halep @1.80 Pinnacle (6/10) :eyes oh well LOSS -
Re: May 13 - May 19 Crazy turnaround in Berdy-Djoker! Looks like Djoker is not fully fit yet. Leading 6-2 5-3 and serving, losing 4 games straight from that point, being broken early in the decider, and never coming back - lost it 4-6. I wonder what's behind. Good call Berdy +1.5 sets, Czech.
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Re: May 13 - May 19 Jankovic to bt Halep @1.80 Pinnacle (6/10) Fantastic price on JJ, IMO. Halep played quite fine, but what were her opponents: Injured Kuznetsova, tired Radwanska and injured Vinci. Do not misunderstand me - I rate Simona quite high, but she had luck with the opponents so far. As to JJ, I would consider backing her total nonsense last two seasons, but this season it seems that she is back again. She defeated defending finalist Li Na yesterday, and that counts. Imo the deciding factor here will be the fact that Simona is technical type of player, while JJ has got poverful shots and that, as we see in women's tennis, always outplays technical tennis. Halep has won their encounter on clay in Bruxelles last year in tight three sets, but that was in the period when JJ was real shame'n lame (she lost 5 succesive clay tournaments in round 1 last year). This year we've got much better JJ.
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Re: May 13 - May 19
Crazy thursday. Never ever heard of someone suffering vertigo, which is the official reason Kohli withdrew. Go figure. +2.9u todayKohlschreiber to bt Ferrer @4.64 Pinnacle (2/10) VOID Kohlschreiber + 1.5 sets > Ferrer @2.28 Pinnacle (5/10) VOID Cibulkova - S.Williams O 18.5 @2.17 Pinnacle (2/10) LOSS Halep to bt Vinci @2.23 Pinnacle (4/10) WIN -
Re: May 13 - May 19
Great call aout Paire, Czech. I was considering that one, too, and your writeup convinced me to actually place the wager. Luckily enough, I managed to do so before the FUKKING PINNACLE went down (they are unable to accept wagers for several hours by now, though they are still offering LIVE betting on Rome tournament, although you get error every time you choose the bet, unbelievable). edit: I disagree with the Simon bet. I made small bet Roger -4.5, but the strength was not that big to offer it here. I think that actually Simon got through Youzhny solely because Youzhny is know gallactic-super-extra-choker. IMO Simon with his non-offensive approach can't stand Roger today.Back Benoit Paire (+1.5 sets) to beat Juan Martin del Potro for a 2/10 stake at 2.50 with Bet-at-home [...snip...] Back Gilles Simon (+1.5 sets) to beat Roger Federer for a 2/10 stake at 2.50 with Bet-at-home [...snip...] -
Re: May 13 - May 19 Kohlschreiber to bt Ferrer @4.64 Pinnacle (2/10) Kohlschreiber + 1.5 sets > Ferrer @2.28 Pinnacle (5/10) Ferrer apparently not in his optimal form last couple of weeks. Yesterday he managed to grind out the victory against Verdasco after having lost the first set 5-7. This match was tigh, but Verdasco, whose fitness is not particularly great, eventually collapsed and Ferrer has won 5-7 7-5 6-3. Kohli is in great form by now, and I'd rate his chances much higher than the odds suggest. Cibulkova - S.Williams O 18.5 @2.17 Pinnacle (2/10) No doubt Cibulkova is big hitter. When she feels she has nothing to lose, she can deliver fantastic tennis. She managed to take a set off Serena this year in Miami. Of course, no way Cibulkova is going to win this match - if by some miracle Cibulkova managed to lead 6-0 5-0 40:0 and serving against Serena, she would undoubtely find the way to lose the match. But because Serena invariably delivers weaker performance against huge underdogs, and Dominika is the right person to take couple of extra games from that fact, I think Dominika is going to win at least 7 games. Halep to bt Vinci @2.23 Pinnacle (4/10) H2H 2-1 for Vinci, but their only meeting on clay (last year in Barcelona) has been won by Halep. Vinci suffered shoulder injury about two weeks ago, and her game went down since then. She was beaten by Lepchenko in Madrid, and she was lucky to get past Vesnina in round 1 here in Rome. Vinci has no points to defend in Rome (last year she was sent packing by Karin Knapp in round 1). I'd have Halep slight favourite here.
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Re: May 13 - May 19
Not bad considering it's wednesday. +5.4 u today which brings me to +16.8 u this weekKohlschreiber -2 games > Ramos @2.03 Pinnacle (2/10) :ok Simon to bt Youzhny @2.11 Pinnacle (3/10) :ok -
Re: May 13 - May 19
I'm not an avid tennis watcher' date=' but that's the tendency which I have noticed. Murray has just retired, and he wouldn't have had it been RG. Tsonga, lost today, but I know about his inconsistency anyway. I won't be surprised if Nadal and Ferrer give up today or the next round.[/quote'] There are players that do that and there are players that would never ever do that. Both Rafa and Ferrer belong to the second category :-) -
Re: May 13 - May 19 Wawa withdrew - I am sorry for you Czech - I always hate when the players withdraw when they feel they would lose (this often does Serena, now I inlude Wawrinka)
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Re: May 13 - May 19 edit:
forgot to add summary for tuesday: +7.0 units, this gets me to +11.4u for the week leaving Wawrinka alone today - Dolgopolov is a prick in Rome conditions (I laughed alot last year when he was bagelised by Verdasco in round 1 in severe windy conditions, and because he was just unable to toss the ball to serve, he retired after the 1st set. LOL.), and his win over Viola was not truly convincing. He might defeat wawa, but personally I think he will not. However, I take Kohlschreiber -2 games > Ramos @2.03 Pinnacle (2/10) Kohli's win over Raonic was something to note. He is good claycourter, and after having lost the final in his favourite tournament in Munich, he is on a mission here in Rome to get some points back. Simon to bt Youzhny @2.11 Pinnacle (3/10) Youzhny's win ove Almagro was impressive, but Mugro plyead really bad. The same was true with Haas. IMO Youzhny is masively overrated after those wins, but Simon is the guy that just returns everything back. He will let Youzhny run all over the place and Youzhny will eventually make the error. Youzhny is no more the guy that played US Open semifinal, and Gilles is going to remind him of this.Berlocq to bt Wawrinka @3.0 Pinnacle (2/10) LOSS Berlocq +1.5 set > Wawrinka @1.813 Pinnacle (5/10) :ok Halep to take a set off A.Radwanska @Pinnacle 2.00 (5/10) :ok -
Re: May 13 - May 19 Halep to take a set off A.Radwanska @Pinnacle 2.00 (5/10) Halep playing great at the moment, while A.Rad was not convincing at all in Madrid, and her results in Rome last two years are poor, too (she lost her first match vs Vesnina in 2011 and Cetkovska in 2012). I don't say Halep is going to win this, but IMO A.Rad is going to tank a set.
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Re: May 13 - May 19 I decided to massage Wawrinka in this tournament. His match vs Berlocq is his 11-th match within last 13 days, and though Wawa is not super fat, he is not that big athlete to endure endlessly. So let's start with Berlocq, who is quite good on clay: Berlocq to bt Wawrinka @3.0 Pinnacle (2/10) adding Berlocq +1.5 set > Wawrinka @1.813 Pinnacle (5/10)
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Re: May 6 - May 12
I had a rare massive bet on Seppi today and seemed pretty confident till I read your post' date=' then the real fear set in. The sudden realization that I could lose my money having read your comments about Fognini. I do not know how it happens, but it always happens to me with alarming constitency. It is not your fault anyway. However you should not have mouthed him off! lol!!!![/quote'] Did not come through - looks like Seppi is even bigger clown than Foggy. It was marked 3/10 so I am really not the one to blame, especially when all I wrote is true. I hope you took the Oudin > Makarova bet as well. Not bad start of the week for me, +4.4u -
Re: May 6 - May 12 Oudin to bt Makarova @4.72 Pinnacle (2/10) Makarova not big claycourter, Oudin leads H2H 1-0 (did beat her last year on Grass in Birmingham), and makarova apparently having some sort of health problem with her left (dominant) arm after her match vs Errani last week.
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Re: May 6 - May 12 Seppi to bt Clown-Foggy @2.01 Pinacle (3/10) Fognini, after his good run in Monte Carlo, finds himself again in his infamous clown mode. Lost to Carreno-Busta in Portugal (which is not that big disaster), and diabolicaly fukked up his match vs Youzhny in Madrid (which must have made deep impact into his mental state). He was 5-4 up in the decider and served for the match, having 3 matchpoints at 40-0. Now guess what happened next - LOL. This clown took it to tie-break and lost. I think that his compatriot Seppi is going to crush him today.
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Re: May 6 - May 12
With what Sam delivered in Madrid I would be really carefull to back her with real money. She is big NO NO for me.1 PICK FOR WTA ROME: STOSUR-HSIEH 2:0 IN SETS @ 1.51 on pinnaclesports Stosur is a former French Open champion and is a great clay court player. Hsieh does not play a lot on clay and it is really her worst surface. -
Re: May 6 - May 12 Nadal vs Wawrinka 1st set over 9.5 games @1.84 local bookie (3/10) This type of bet relies upon two facts - Rafa always chooses receive and Wawa chooses serve if he wins the toss. Therefore Wawa is going to serve first. I don't think hat Wawa is going to be broken more than once, and I do not expect Rafa to be broken at all (or before he manages to win 4th game). Their H2H record supports this view - out of 8 matches 7 1st games ended 10 games or more.
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Re: May 6 - May 12
Makarova apparently acquired some sort of wrist injury - she was checking her left forearm and stretching her left palm after game 7 set two - a thing to remember next week and later.I will never understand what exactly was Makarova trying to do with all those wayward returns in the second set. Surely you should stop going for return winners once you miss so many in a row? :unsure -
Re: April 22 - April 28 WOW! Even lousy Kerber managed to get a set vs Sharapova. Not Li Na. Li Na on my blacklist from now on. This gets me to poor +2 pts in two weks :-( Sorry to anyone that followed me this week.
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Re: April 22 - April 28 Early market WTA Stuttgart Final Li Na to bt Sharapova @2.47 Pinnacle (8/10) Li Na has been very clinical throughout the whole week. Sharapova lost a set in ech match she played due the inexplicable loss of concetration, while Li na did not lose a single set so far. IMO Li Na is going to punish that severely. H2H 8-5 for Maria, Li Na won the last match played (Australian Open semifinal this year). I was ready to buy anything above 2.0, and 2.47 is very pleasant surprise to me.
French Open 2013
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: French Open 2013 Vesely +6 vs Kohlschreiber @2.02 Pinnacle (5/10) Vesely should be big unknown for Kohli. However, this big left handed guy has won couple of challengers on clay recently and in no case is he to be underestimated. Kohli did not play at his best lately - he retired in Rome and lost to clown Sijsling in his entry match (R2 cos he was seeded) on his home soil Dusseldorf. Vesely fully capable to keep this match close.