[August 5 - August 11]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Time to try something different, so I designed me a strong parlay for today: D.Cibulkova +4.5 games > A.Kerber J.Hampton +2.5 games > C.S.Navarro M.Baghdatis +2.5 games > F.Fognini ----------------------------------------- @2.63 locall bookie (8/10) In the Kerber-Cibulkova match, Kerber is the fav, but, strange enough, Cibu leads H2H 3-0. Obviously Cibu is bad matchup for Angelique. And Cibu is in good form, winning Stanford two weeks ago. It's a fact that Cibu has mental problems now and then and can hand out the already won match, but this is mostly in the later stages of tournamens. The PLUS hcp should hold solid. Hampton is the slight fav in C.S.Navarro match. Navarro leads H2H 1-0 by having beaten Jamie in Miami this year 5-7 7-5 7-6(3). However, the stats say that actually Jamie has won more points in that match. I expect close battle, but I believe that the safety PLUS hcp is going to hold, unless Jamie explodes and is going to be bagelised in the 1st set. Fabio comes from an unbelievable clay run, and IMO he must be at least a bit exhausted. They met 3 times with Marcos. Foggy won two matches on clay in two and Baggy won one match on hard in two. Again, Baggy is the slight fav in this match, so I expect the safety PLUS hcp to hold. GL :hope

[August 5 - August 11]

Re: August 5 - August 11 ^^ That's news to me - info I have is from official WTA site and her own website. Thx for correcting it. Do you know what happened? She acquired Hingis only in may this year... edit-OK I have found it. You are right. They have split in June and I have missed that. It looks like namely Hingis was the cause of her bad results of late. I am really curious how she is going to play under her old coach now..

[August 5 - August 11]

Re: August 5 - August 11 ^^ Begu was awful thoughout all this season. I would not read much from Zhao's win. Pavly has got two WTA titles plus one WTA final this season, is killer on hard, and her new coach Hingis would be rather sad if she would lose her very first match in US Open swing, LOL... However, I agree with Mona Barthel pick and I am on Zheng's train, too

[August 5 - August 11]

Re: August 5 - August 11 WTA Toronto Lauren Davis to bt Svetlana Kuznetsova @2.52 Local bookie (5/10) These two played only yesterday and Davis won 5-7 6-4 6-4. Kuzzy not in her best form lately - she was injured (abdominal strain) in past couples of weeks, and before she went to Carlsbad last week, her last match was French Open Quarterfinal. Then she did not play for nearly two months. Lost to Razzano in R1 at Carlsbad, and now she lost in qualies to Lauren Davis in Toronto. It looked like she is glad to leave, howevever she became Lucky Loser after Azarenka and N.Petrova withdrew, and guess what - she meets Lauren again in R1 :-) The odds on Lauren were around 4 in the qualies, so the bookies adjusted it a bit for the next match, but still I think that Lauren should be the fav in this match.

[July 29 - August 4]

Re: July 29 - August 4

Alize Cornet to bt Andrea Petkovic @2.27 local bookie (5/10) LOSS

Did not happen. Rybarikova vs Petkovic final is a coin toss, so that's all for me this week in which I broke even. Hoping for better next week.

[July 29 - August 4]

Re: July 29 - August 4

Roberta Vinci -1.5 GAMES! > Anna Ivanovic @2.10 local bookie (3/10) :wall

Not even close. The fact that I have run into this nonsense and missed Razzano at the same time means that I should stop until next week. edit ... which of course would be wise, but I am not able to follow my own advice, LOL. Therefore here's the one for today: WTA Washington Alize Cornet to bt Andrea Petkovic @2.27 local bookie (5/10) Alize plays in big form at this tournament. She not even handled Yanina Wicmayer, Heather Watson and Sorana Cirstea, but she handled them all in straight sets. She leads H2H 2-0, although it's fair to note that these matches are 3-4 yrs old. Andrea defeated Mona Barthel in R2 in straights, but then Mona is not in the best form lately. Andrea went into three sets with huge underdog Ormaechea, which could indicate decreasing level of performance. Alize's big form plus H2H plus perhaps suboptimal performance of Petkovic is what this bet is based upon.

[July 29 - August 4]

Re: July 29 - August 4 Have been chewing this one over and over again, but I pulled the trigger in the end: WTA Carlsbad Roberta Vinci -1.5 GAMES! > Anna Ivanovic @2.10 local bookie (3/10) It's a sad fact that Anna's performance level is steadily decreasing in past couple of months. Loss with Timea Babosz on Mexican hard court in april (Monterrey) was real shocker. Though Anna leads all-time h2h, Vinci won their last encounter last year by double-bagel. She defeated BMS on her home-soil convincingly 64 62, which shows she has found her form in the clay-hard transition. Anna went into tie-break with poor Coco Wandeweghe in R2 and managed to deliver large number of doublefaults in every match here in Carlsbad. IMO Vinci is far more consistent, and is going to win at least two games more than Anna. The funny part is that she dose not even need to win the whole match - one bagel should be enough for the bet to win, i.e. 6-0 4-6 4-6.

[July 29 - August 4]

Re: July 29 - August 4

Monica Niculescu to bt Madison Keys @2.67 local bookie (3/10) :ok U.Radwanska vs J.Jankovic OVER 21.5 games @1.95 local bookie (3/10):ok

Both bets landed, though I heard that Madison had couple of matchpoints in the decider tiebreak. But all went well in the end.

[July 29 - August 4]

Re: July 29 - August 4 Anyone else sees value in WTA Washington Monica Niculescu to bt Madison Keys @2.67 local bookie (3/10) ? The key point is this is their first mutual match. Madison is big talent, but relatively unexperienced 18yrs old American player. Her results are quite good, but she is highly prone to hand out her match out easy when she does not feel comfortably. I went against her in her match vs Dushevina last week, and I am going against her today again. I know no WTA player that feels comfortably when facing Monica Niculescu :-) Monica's unorthodox slicing style is a headache for far better and more experienced players than Keys, and no way this is going to be piece of cake for Madison. adding U.Radwanska vs J.Jankovic OVER 21.5 games @1.95 local bookie (3/10) U.Rad is a fighter, while JJ plays somewhat below her par laterly, I expect tight battle here.

[July 22 - July 28]

Re: July 22 - July 28

Thanks to all the tippers' date=' wonderful picks so far. Do you guys have any insight on Radwanska vs Hampton game in Stanford, USA? Jamie Hampton has beat Radwanska already this year at the Eastbourne grass tournament, and her [email protected] in most of the bookies seems pretty appealing.[/quote'] IMO no real bet. You cannot count in that Eastbourne win because A.Rad obviously tanked before Wimbledon. She does so every now and then in past couple of months(Madrid and Rome loss before FO etc.). So A.Rad certainly has got the weapons to beat Jamie if she is motivated. On the other hand, Jamie is going to get big home crowd support after Keys is out, and she has got the talent to defeat A.Rad that does not play 100%. IMO this is not the match you can place a serious wager on.

[July 22 - July 28]

Re: July 22 - July 28

Vera Dushevina to bt Madison Keys @3.34 local bookie (2/10)

Vera is rolling :ok

[July 22 - July 28]

Re: July 22 - July 28 ^^ That was to be expected. I think it's normally acceptable, unnless this happens in LIVE betting and you cover the original bet after the odds change. This happened to me last week at Pinnacle, and I insisted on cancelling both bets. They were reluctant, but in the end they refunded the cover bet as well. However, they blocked my account for betting and both deposit and withdrawal actions :-) Only after I complained they allowed me to withhdraw the balance and we split. My local bookie is a rascal, but at least he never voids bets because of wrong odds.

[July 22 - July 28]

Re: July 22 - July 28 OK, Brands did the job thus leaving me with funds that need probably be shortened immediately, but I just can't help myself WTA Stanford Vera Dushevina to bt Madison Keys @3.34 local bookie (2/10) My local bookie is a freebooter, and you can find odds above 4 in other books, but be it. Vera is kinda coming back into shape after a period of bad results. She went through qualies here, and managed to make the clown out of both Puchkova and Marina Erakvic, whom she ousted in straights despite being the underdog. This is a sign she gets into form. Vera leads H2H 1-0 , she defeated Madison last year 6-2 7-5 in Memphis indoor hard. Madison is prone to hand out a match now and then, so why not today. GL.

[July 22 - July 28]

Re: July 22 - July 28 Someone has to come with this one sooner or later, so why not me ATP Gstaad D.Brands +1.5 sets > R.Federer @3.0 local bookie (2/10) Federer is dropping sets these days like leaky bucket the water. When these two played in Hamburg last week, Brands won the first set. So did Florian Mayer, and Delbonis even managed to beat the old man. This is first Fedex match after the Delbonis defeat, and his confidence should not be the best. Worth small punt.

[July 22 - July 28]

Re: July 22 - July 28 ^^ Of those 4 losses one was W/O. ANother one was loss to Kohlschreiber, which is nothing to be ashamed of. The remaining two losses were to Hanescu and Granolers, both are quality claycourters. delbonis already had a Hambug-like run - in Stutgart 2011 he went to final fro qualies and he lost the final in three vs Juan Carlos Ferrero. He lost the very next week in Orbetello challenger 1st round vs Paolo Lorenzi. Basically Bellucci should win, the more so because he won the whole thing last year. But his form today is not exactly bright - that's true :-) edit: The 2011 Stuttgart - not to FINAL, but SEMIFINAL, sorry.

[July 15 - July 21]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Not the best day today. Foggy won, but Zako was disappointment in the first set and Fedex, whom I had to be beaten tomorow by Foggy at good price, was ousted today by the qualifier outside the 1st hundred. I thought that when Stakhovski is not around he may make it to the finals :-(

[July 15 - July 21]

Re: July 15 - July 21 WTA Bastad Zako vs Fat Serena OVER 17.5 games (Slightly above evens in most of the bookies) (5/10) Another line influenced by the "celebrity factor". Zako is streaky player and she is on the run. She is pretty dangerous on clay, and she already did beat Serena on clay in 2009. They played 3 matches on clay so far and two were three-setters and one Serena won 6-4 6-4. I am not saying that Zako will win most of her service games, but the way Serena hands out her own serves, she should be able to get couple of breaks. Add 4 hold serves and we're home. Fully in her capabilities considering Serena probably does not care much about Bastad tournament. edit: also following Foggy to bt Mugro, GL

[July 15 - July 21]

Re: July 15 - July 21

WTA Bad-Gastein guard! Odds are not out yet, but next round Annika Beck should play with Karin Knapp. Annika won their only meeting this year, was the fav in that match, and is higher seed at Bad Gastein. Therefore I assume Knapp is going to be the underdog. However, Annika did not play Bad-Gastein so far, while Karin played semifinal here at 2007. Bad-Gastein is in high altitude, and some players have troubles to cope with that. Annika had MT in both R1 and R2 matches, probably because of bleeding nose. In addition to this, she is serving really bad, and Mandy Minella should have won their today's match. All in for Karin Knapp to bt Annika Beck once the odds are out!

Karin started slightly above evens, but then there was massive shift and she is now around 1.75ish. There appeared news that the MTO in Annika Beck's last match was merely tactical. In short words - it smells. I am leaving the idea of the prematch wager and will try my luck inplay.

[July 15 - July 21]

Re: July 15 - July 21 WTA Bad-Gastein guard! Odds are not out yet, but next round Annika Beck should play with Karin Knapp. Annika won their only meeting this year, was the fav in that match, and is higher seed at Bad Gastein. Therefore I assume Knapp is going to be the underdog. However, Annika did not play Bad-Gastein so far, while Karin played semifinal here at 2007. Bad-Gastein is in high altitude, and some players have troubles to cope with that. Annika had MT in both R1 and R2 matches, probably because of bleeding nose. In addition to this, she is serving really bad, and Mandy Minella should have won their today's match. All in for Karin Knapp to bt Annika Beck once the odds are out!

[July 15 - July 21]

Re: July 15 - July 21

Isn't the bet void in this case? At least mine is in bet365.

My local is one-ball (pays ML after match starts). Pinnacle requires one set finished. Bet365 requires the match to be completed. Never bet in Bet365 if there is tiredness factor in WTA (often ends with retirement).

[July 15 - July 21]

Re: July 15 - July 21

Going for Pennetta to bt Halep at my local bookie today. Pinnacle offers odds @3.60. (4/10) Halep did not play good in her previous match vs local youngster Peterson and it was apparent that she is a bit tired. She did admit the tiredness in her after match interview as well, (but she added that she is feeling well physically, go figure.). Pennetta leads H2H 1-0 (2010 Marabella clay 6-4 7-6). I'd say that odds over 3 are little bit silly.

Halep retires in set 3 after losing the second set and 2 games in a row in the third. :ok Hope someone followed.

[July 15 - July 21]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Going for Pennetta to bt Halep at my local bookie today. Pinnacle offers odds @3.60. (4/10) Halep did not play good in her previous match vs local youngster Peterson and it was apparent that she is a bit tired. She did admit the tiredness in her after match interview as well, (but she added that she is feeling well physically, go figure.). Pennetta leads H2H 1-0 (2010 Marabella clay 6-4 7-6). I'd say that odds over 3 are little bit silly.

[July 8 - July 14]

Re: July 8 - July 14 Pinnacle story continued :-) After the case explained above, I mailed the following to pinnaclesports: ----------------------------------------- Hello sir, I am tempted to place the pre-match wager on Garcia-Lopez in Garcia-Lopez tennis match vs Almagro in Bastad today. The odds on Garcia-Lopez are 4,38. Because you are well-known for crippling the odds every now and then and later cancel the legitimate wagers, I am asking for the confirmation of these odds. So – can I take for granted that odds on Garcia-Lopez in GarciaLopez tennis match vs Almagro today are indeed 4,38? Regards ----------------------------------------------- what shame - they did not respond. Actually It would have been pretty good play because Mugro lost first set and his hedge price was about 1.8, but what if they later cancelled the prematch wager? I think I am done with them.

[July 8 - July 14]

Re: July 8 - July 14 Just for everyone's info - I got somehow burned today on Pinnacle. They miscalculated the serve position in the second set in Berdych-Alund match and offered generous odds 2.2 on Berdych to win game 2 of set 2 LIVE (Berdych was serving in game 2). Well, I jumped on it but relly tiny because it did stink. Some seconds later they realized it and changed the odds to 5.5 Alund to win game 2 of set 2. Of course I hedged, I still had VALID ticket on first bet :-) Now these ***** CANCELLED the first bet and cashed the second one that they left running (of course Berdy bagelised Alund in set two). The objections were of no use. So be warned to play hedges on Pinnacle. Actually, this make this book unusable for me, I think I should include them in my SIG. :-(

[July 8 - July 14]

Re: July 8 - July 14 ATP Stuttgart R1 Marcel Granollers to bt Ernest Gulbis @2.87 Pinnacle (2/10) IMO odds in this match are severely influenced by the "celebrity" factor. There is absolutely no reason Gulbis should be that big fav, let alone on clay. Granollers in R1 of some obscure 250 clay tournament is no challenge at all for Gulbis, and his motivation to go deep here are IMO none. Without motivation, Gulbis is beatable even by my lame grandmother :-) H2H 2-2, with Marc winning last year's match on Winston Salem's hard court. Gulbis was well involved in grass tournaments (played 5 matches in Halle and Wimbledon), while Marc played only 1 grass match (lost to Gasquet in Wimbledon R1). Therefore I assume that clay back-swing is going to be easier for Marc. Marc played this tournament once two years ago, where he made it to QF (unexpectedly lost to Juan carlos Ferrero). Gulbis did not attend this tournament at all so far.