homunculus
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Posts posted by homunculus
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Re: January 7 - January 13
Yes' date=' he retired before the match with back problems. Apparently, he might not be ready for the Australian Open.[/quote'] Actually, it was not BEFORE the match. Step retired during 1st game. Julien cashed at one ball bookies. -
Re: November/December 2012
kreator, this match was last qualies round, and Thiem tanked apparently because he gives a damn about playing Marabella (which he never played so far anyway). Samper-Montana is local guy, who happens to have solid serve and patient play - kinda Simon like :-), but lacks strong shots. So the next round is going to be 1st main draw round. Too risky to fade local guy against anyone, IMO.slider24... got a question in this case I saw you are not following a bet after a lose or a win. (for example you find a player in good form, he wins the game and your bet, but it the 2nd round you don't bet on him anymore, despite opposing another week opponent. In this case ... having a bet against weak samper-montana... why not oppose him again in the second round... I know it's always about re-analysing the 2 contenders...but in this case a bet against Samper in the 2nd round it's pretty obvious?! ... or do I have it totally wrong :p -
Re: November/December 2012 Add Dominic to your blacklist, slider, LOL :-) edit: I've got the impression this match was typical example of purposely tanked match. Dominic made sure he gets broken twice in the beginning of each set (by making unexplicable unforced errors), and only then he started to play his game. Too late of course. edit2: Thiem vs Samper Montana 46 16. Thiem won just 3 of his 9 sevice games. The bottom line is: NEVER bet bloody challengers.
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Re: November/December 2012 The situation changed after Delpo's win. Now Ferrer Tipsa match is dead rubber for both. Ferrer might be pissed off by Federer's performance that did put him off before his match actually started. Therefore he might stick with the scenario that makes Delpo a winner of the group with Federer qualifying second. All that is needed is that Ferrer loses to Tipsa. Would be quite funny, but the question is - is Ferrer able to think this way? I think he is not.
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Re: November/December 2012 I'd say backing Tipsa here is waste of money. It's a dead rubber for him already. There is no scenario here in which Tipsa could qualify for the semis. Ferrer absolutely never tanks and he needs to win this match. I expect easy win for Ferrer.
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Re: November/December 2012
good start for the eventBerdych +3.5 games to bt Murray @1.826 Pinnacle (3/10) WON -
Re: November/December 2012 Berdych +3.5 games to bt Murray @1.826 Pinnacle (3/10) Muzza was looking really bad in the Paris decider against Janowicz, and his health is IMO questionable by now. This guy had to withdraw from ATP Finals last year after his first match, and who knows how does he feel this year. Berdy has good H2H against Andy, and he always managed to play tough matches with him. Their last encounter this year at US Open was severely influenced by the wind, and I am sure Tomas was really pissed off by this match. He will seek revenge. Tomas wisely tanked in Paris against Simon, and he had some days off before this match. +3.5 seems really good offer to me.
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Re: October 22 - October 28
I would not recommend that. Both Kerber and Li Na could grab a set. Vika is known to have weak games streak now and then, and Serena appears to have some health issues with her left thigh. The closest matching bet would probably be Sharapova to bt Radwanska @1.377 Pinnacle. I would go for this one if I were forced to.Mates, I would like to ask you for an advise. I have little experience with tennis betting although I follow the game more or less. I need for today a 1.30-1.40 coefficient pick to add up to a combo. As I did not find anything suitable in the football markets, I searched the tennis, and in the end I came up with two alternative options. The first one is picking Serena Williams to beat Li Na by 2-0, and the other one is Azarenka to get the same win vs. Kerber. I am really confused which one to pick up. I am a little more inclined towards Serena, because of her great shape since June, plus the fact that Na Li is sort of more one-directional and less versatile than Kerber in my view, and this sort of players are usually easier opponents for Williams. On the other hand, Azarenka has been outstanding in the last weeks and she is just humiliating her opponents. In this respect, she seems like the one less likely to lose concentration and skip a set. Also Williams took some rest after US Open, and I am not certain how this will affect her. So, which one of the two you would suggest for me?! -
Re: October 22 - October 28 A.Radwanska to bt P.Kvitova @2.37 Pinnacle (3/10) Kvitova was awful in Beijing and Tokyo. She lost to Suarez Navarro and Martic respectively in early rounds, while ARad did show good form there (Final in Tokyo, QF in Beijing). Last year on Masters Petra did beat Agnieszka 7-6 6-3 when she converted 4 breakpoints of 6, while Aga converted only 3 of 9. Last year, however, Petra was in much better form having played semifinal in Tokyo, and while she later exploded in Beijing (lost to Sofia Arvidsson in the first match), she then won indoor hard Linz, which serverd as good preparation for WTA Champs. This year Petra did not attend this preparatory tournament, so she should be more rusty than last year. Aga has won both Tokyo and Beijing last year, and although she later tanked in Moscow losing to Safarova in the first match, I'd say that her form this year is comparable to her form from last year, while Petra is nowhere near her level from the 2011 season.
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Re: October 22 - October 28
Wee sell ware for homeless people. In case you are interested, just PM me.Juan Monaco 2/7 to beat Hewitt tomorrow = bet your house! I'm a big hewitt fan, and watched two of his games last week. I backed him at 2-1 to beat Anderson, and 11-8 to beat Niemenen. However, whilst watching them, it's obvious he needs another few months for confidence / striking of the ball to return properly. He was netting countless shots, being very cautious on serves and being eaten alive in many of the longer rallies. His return of serve though was impressive, and in return games he was often very in them. I didn't see the Almagro game, however, he seemed point wise to be getting a thumping on serve. I just feel Monaco's conditioning and form should see him comfortably through. First time they've played though! Heart Hewitt, head Monaco, easily. -
Re: US Open 2012
That really was funny saturday :-) The wind was strong during Berdy match, nonetheless there were equally bad conditions in some other tournamennts in the past and matches were not suspended. In the second semi, I placed a LIVE bet on FERRER in the 1st game when he had breakpoints and it was obvious that Djoker is having big troubles on serve (unlike David). Now everyone knows what happened :-) After Djoker has been spanked badly during first set, the officials decided that they cannot let Djoker look so bad (they did not hesitate to let Berdy play couple of minutes before), and suggested suspension. David wanted to continue, but Djoker agreed that the conditions are not good and the big star Djoker had it. Sunday sunny weather was utterly different cup of coffee and Djoker easily won. I am not arguing that Ferrer should have won - he would have no chance in majority of cases, but if he had so incredible luck with the weather, it was not fair to him. Especially considering that suspending a match because of the wind is very uncommon.Tomas Berdych vs Andy Murray murray to win first set 7-5 12/1 skybet sometimes murray starts slowly so expect a tight first set and he is good at breaking serve at five all -
Re: US Open 2012 Li Na to win US Open @15.238 (corrected odds) local bookie (1/10) Li Na is somewhat underrated here. Considering she has shown some form in the preparatory tournaments - won Cinci and played tough final with Kvitova in Montreal. When I look at players with shorter odds - S.Williams, Azarenka, Sharapova and Kvitova, she managed to beat them all and has pretty balanced h2h with all of them except perhaps Serena. Pinny has her at 13.60, so over 15 is value to me. Also going for Nina Bratchikova to bt A.Radwanska @10.85 Pinnacle (1/10) A.Rad retired after being bagelised in 1st set last week in New Haven by Govortsova. She is having problems with her shoulder couple of months by now, and I 've got the impression that the limits have been reached. Small stakes.
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Re: August 13 - August 19
Hideous tankjob from Tsvetana :-( Apology to anyone who followedPironkova to bt Sloane Stephens @2.430 Pinnacle (5/10) LOSS -
Re: August 13 - August 19 Pironkova to bt Sloane Stephens @2.430 Pinnacle (5/10) Unless I am missing something the odds do not make sense. Tsvetana is beast on quick surfaces, is much more experienced player, while the only advantage of SLoane is she is playing at home. These two meet for the first time, so no H2H. Tsvetana beat Cibulkova at Olympics, then lost to Flavia Pennetta. Sloane was not at Olymipcs at all and played (weak) Washigton tournament at that time and made it to the semis which tells nothing because the top players were in Europe. GL.
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Re: July 23 - July 29 Kitzbuhel and Olympics: Kohli is in the top half of the draw and plays Kavcic in R1 Haase and Klizan are in the bottom half, Haase plays Gasquet and Klizan plays Roddick. Top half R1 should probably be played first, i.e. Saturday. Bottom half probably starts Sunday. Any implications?
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Re: July 23 - July 29 Interesting thing we do not see such movement in Haase match. He too plays Olympics, but in addition he defends title here. What should be the best thing for him?
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Re: July 23 - July 29 Laying Kohli @3.840 Pinnacle. This earns me 18.6 % of the original stake, which is even better then the original odds :-) I love arbs like this :D
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Re: July 23 - July 29 Odds in the Kohli - Balazs partially shifted back, so there is an arb opportunity to earn about 6-7 percent of the original stake.
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Re: July 23 - July 29 Well, this cause reached monster proportions, so I am going to get involved now :-) ATP Kitzbuhel Kohlschreiber to bt Balazs @1.606 Pinnacle (20/10) The odds opened at about 6.60 for the Hungarian and 1.15 for Kohli. Some shift would be normal because Kohli is generally expected to tank sooner or later cos he must be at London Olympics by saturday, or more probably sunday, but SUCH HUGE SHIFT is too much. To openly tank in the very 1st round against noone Balazs is something Kohli would never be able to do. I expect him to tank vs Veic or Rosol one round later, or to create a w/o under some false pretext. Remember this is Austria - a German speaking country - and Kohli would be laughed at forever if he blattantly exited today. GL.
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Re: July 16 - July 22
Well, backing Foggy was probably stupid idea from the very beginning, but Shahar was pure disappointment - I hate matches crippled by day long rain pause, and this is the second one I lost (the other was Djoko/Nadal at French open) :@F. Fognini/P. Kohlschreiber (O 22) @2.03 Pinnacle (5/10) LOSS M. Johansson vs S. Peer @1.943 Pinnacle (5/10) LOSS -
Re: July 16 - July 22 Hamburg F. Fognini/P. Kohlschreiber (O 22) @2.03 Pinnacle (5/10) Foggy has to get some points after his early Umag exit. Kohli not in the form he was earlier this year in Munich. I expect tight battle here. Bastad M. Johansson vs S. Peer @1.943 Pinnacle (5/10) Peer undoubtedly better player and she seems to be getting into shape lately. She was playing very good vs Dominguez Lino in R1 until Lino retired. Mathilde has too weak serve for Shahar.
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Re: July 9 - July 15
Lost. I really did not see Granollers can lose 9 games in a row. Sorry.Granollers vs Cilic over 22 games @2.120 Pinnacle (5/10) LOSS -
Re: July 9 - July 15 Umag final Granollers vs Cilic over 22 games @2.120 Pinnacle (5/10) Cilic plays at home and is the fav here. Last year he lost final against Dolgopolov, but yesterday he got revenge when he sent Dolgo packing 7-5 6-2 in windy Umag weather. He was bit lucky because Dolgo had the upper hand in the 1st set, but Dolgo cannot play in the wind and that was the decisive factor. I am writing this to show that Marin is not that strong player as it may appear and that he could also have lost in the semis. Now Marc Granollers is kind of player that absolutely never gives up, chases every ball, drives his opponents nuts with his grunting and is kinda pain in the ass in all matche vs big favs. He won both finals he played in 2011, and he won 7 of last 10 matches when he was priced as moderate underdog (above 3.00). These two guys met 5 times, and 4 times it went over 22 games.Marc even won their last meeting (Valencia 2011, Granollers won 3-6 6-3 7-5). It was in Spain and on i-hard, so today we have different conditions that favour Marin Cilic, but still I am convinced that this final is going to be tight.
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Re: French Open 2012 Kuzzy rolling - I was wrong. Good work Kuzzy backers.
February 4 - February 10
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: February 4 - February 10 Zagreb Indoors R1 parlay: Lacko to bt Cipolla x Dimitrov to bt Karlovic @1.802 Pinnacle (5/10) Cipolla is typical claycourter that dos not perform well on quicker surface. Lacko is big server, defends final from the last year here and seems to be in good shape lately. Dimitrov is still struggling a bit after his good run in Brisbane earlier this year, but I suppose he will want to make some good result here after his killer performance at Bul-Fin DC (lost only 6 games in two "best of five" matches, but, alas, Bulgaria lost the tie). And Karlovic is injured (back issues), and he is here only because he must attend the home tournament.