harry_rag

Afternoon
Mitsubushi [starts Friday]
Miguel Angel Martin
Each Way @ 300-1 Skybet
 
In market without favourites Langer & Jimenez

Today's bet is Southampton +1 on Asian handicap cards market, 0.75pt 9/10 with 365.

No selection this week, as tends to be the case with International weekends.

2nd

Today's selection. Under 3.5 Asian total cards in Arsenal v Watford,
0.5pt at 9-10 with bet365.

Miguel is reserve this week in Mississippi.
Not a lot of value in the outright market, but happy to play in the Top 10 Finish with Stan James on
Scott Dunlap @ 5-2.
A position he has achieved twice this year in his 4 tournaments. Add on that he placed 9th here last season then happy to play at these odds.

First one of the year starts on Thursday [ANA Inspiration]
 
Top 20 Finish
Jenny Shin @ 3-1 [Ladbrokes]
Korean girl is having a good year with two top ten finishes in last five tournaments. Finished 11th here last year and has good record in major championships.
 

Not sure if this is of any use to anyone, being a spread bet, but I think the following is a very good bet.
Chiefs v Force: Buy Chiefs hotshots at 37* with Spreadex (25 points per McKenzie, Tamanivalu, Ngatai or Lowe try)
Reasons for liking it are
Taking an approach of valuing the hotshots on the basis of the player try minutes quotes, I make that quartet worth just short of 42 points That's an edge of just over 13% and it's very rare to get a perceived edge in double figures in this market All of the players have reasonably encouraging stats, again it's rare for there not to be at least one "makeweight" in among the hotshots SPIN quote 43-47 with McNicol instead of Ngatai. I'd definitely rather have the latter on my side and there's no way you'd expect such a big difference in the prices Be prepared to possibly lose 37 times your stake, but I'm confident this is a value buy at the price.
* Gone up to 38 while I type but I'd still be prepared to get involved at that price.

These alternate PGA Tour events are always interesting, especially the Puerto Rico Open where there is plenty of history to wade through. The ability to attack the par-5s with aggressive play is a real advantage at Coco Beach, but naturally the gusting easterly winds can make this a real challenge on plenty of holes where maturity to make par and keep the card clean is equally as important. A liking for Florida + Central American golf, also seems to be a pre-requisite. Up until this point 50/1 is the shortest price of any winner - understandable as those at the top of the betting charts are rarely in that position of being a feature player.


 
I'm going for Rodgers (28/1 was available as big as 50/1 if you were quick on Monday), Coetzee (40/1), Byrd (60/1) and Fathauer (66/1).

Good first effort to finish T21st
This guy will not be on bookmakers radar yet, so some juicy prices can be expected.

5 West Ham yellows to Chelsea's 3 so 1 short of the bet landing on the push line.
16 winners and 1 push from 31 bets this season, a profit of 1.4 points with a yield of 4.52% and overall +20.48 with a yield of 19.88% from 103 bets.

Good luck
Top 20 Finish
Brett Stegmaier @ 6-1 [Bet 365]
Caught my eye with his 18th last week on a course that played as hard as a major. Not a lot wrong with this Americans all round game and though making his debut here did play his early golf at university in Florida.
 

'Arnie's Tournament' looks a little sparse in 2016, with the lack of real field depth being hidden by McIlroy, Scott, Day, Stenson, Rose and Matsuyama. No Bubba (a very very late WD last week), Fowler, Mickelson who have been regulars of late and naturally we won't talk about TW. Despite being an Invitation-status event, the new schedule which sees the World Match Play being played next week, pre Augusta has not helped at all. Even so, we should see some fine golf with 4 of aforementioned 'big guns' winless in 2016. The course is a classical, Florida set-up which these days is the easiest on the Florida swing. You can thank Donald Trump for that!  
Featuring new TifEagle Bermudagrass putting surfaces and Celebration Bermudagrass fairways, the familiarities with Copperhead last week are obvious. However fairways which were widened for 2015 and larger green complexes make this a far easier test.  Getting approach shots close to the hole from distance though still proves to be very difficult, so look for those with strong Bermudagrass Strokes Gained Putting stats.
I've gone win only on McIlroy (6) with Casey (50), Kaufman (110) and Brown (125) supporting each-way. 

The only card of the game was shown to the hosts so a reasonably comfortable win.
16 winners and 1 push from 30 bets this season, a profit of 2.4 points with a yield of 8% and overall +21.48 with a yield of 21.06% from 102 bets.

Cheers, my "not great so far" in relation to the results reads worse than intended - really good, detailed analysis and one more winner would have turned the small loss into a decent profit! I look forward to further previews.

Thanks for interest in a thread. I will better try to analyze matches.

No joy today with Sevilla being "out cornered" 8 to 5. The late red card didn't help but the bets never really looked like landing.  
Just a reminder that, to comply with the rules of posting in this thread, you need to post a record of how the bets are performing, regularly updated. I've worked out the following to 1 point level stakes, literally on the back of an envelope! Not great so far, but keep them coming!
Number of bets 6
Winning bets 3
Losing bets 3
Strike rate 50%
Profit (or Loss) -0.53 points
Yield -8.83%
 

Thanks for the write up, an interesting thread (to me at least) and I've finally got round to looking at a game to see if your views suggest any potential spread bets. I don't tend to do fixed odds corner bets (usually because the prices hit my "too short to back" nerve) but I do like spread bets on corners.
The first thing I noticed here is that there's a big difference of opinion between the firms with SPIN being the firm most likely to have read your post and taken on board your views! The obvious bet to take would be to buy Sevilla corner supremacy at 2.75 with Spreadex, with SPIN going 3-4. A buy at 2.75 looks a very good bet if your fixed odds selection offers genuine value, showing a profit if Sevilla win by just 3 corners.
I quite like cross corners bets (home team total multiplied by the away team's) and a buy at 28 could well show a profit but, as the focus here is on the number Sevilla could rack up, I've opted to buy Sevilla corners squared at 56 with Spreadex. They'll need to gain 8 for me to show a profit (8 x 8 = 64) but the price seems to underestimate their chances of doing so and they'll probably need to gain something like that total to comfortably cover a -3 handicap! You'd have to buy at 68 with SPIN, meaning 8 corners would still see you make a small loss.
Good look with your selection, I hope you win with plenty to spare! 

Agreed and I usually do. Was faced with the decision late last night after a few glasses of red wine so I'm blaming it on the vino!
Lesson duly learned for the future though!

Scotland v France: Power shift in Murrayfield
https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/rugby-union/six-nations/scotland-v-france-tips-power-shift-in-murrayfield-2016031011

Cheers Harry
Always in my opinion best more times that not to close out after round 3 in the above case...as you were guaranteed 28pts profit compared to a possible maximum loss of 24pts which as I found out today anything can happen in a final pressure round of golf!

Sevilla- Villarreal
Central match of 29th game week of Spanish Primera Division will be Sevilla- Villarreal match. Sevilla’s players will try to beat their opponents at home and to approach to 4th league place. Bookies consider that the hosts will be obvious favorites on corners. But will be this true? Let’s find out.
First of all, look at Sevilla’s corners stats. The team plays not bad – they won 8 of 14 matches on corners. The team has one of the best corners difference indicator, even ahead of Barcelona. Sevilla goes second on home taken corners after Real Madrid (should be admitted that Real Madrid supervised one more match). Sevilla takes on average 7.29 corners and let opponents take 4.71 corners a game.
Villarreal looks awfully on away taken corners: there were 1 win and 10 defeats. The team is in the third place from the end of the table on corners which they allow to take opponents – the hosts of the field. Worse than Villarreal are only Valencia and Malaga. Should admit that in last 4 of 6 away games Villarreal’s encounters took 9 or more corners and Villarreal’s team could only once take more than 3 corners. Average results on corners are slightly better at away: Villarreal took on average 4 corners, on the other hand, their encounters took 7.31 corners per game.
Let’s look at handicap on corners. Handicap -3 on Sevilla estimates 1.8 odds at Bet365.
Villarreal has the worst indicator among all Primera teams on corners difference at away. Their opponents take on average 3.31 corners more than Villarreal. Valencia and Eibar are similar to Villarreal on this indicator. If you look at how Sevilla played with these opponents than you will see that this handicap was confidently covered (lately in Sevilla-Eibar match Sevilla took on 6 more corners and in Valencia match the benefit was enormous 17-0)
So, in my opinion, bet on minus handicap is quite reasonable.
More stats of corners, cards, referees, goals and others - http://corner-stats.com

Cheers, FP sell at 49 is appealing enough for me.

FP sold at 46 with SPIN (the only firm quoting him in that market). Be rude not to have a small bet on the top 20 double along with Senden in the Valspar Champioship!

Top 20 Finish
Rikard Karlberg @ 3-1 [Bet 365]
Not done a lot so far this year, but the Swede does live on the course and knows the layout like the back of his hand. Indeed he finished 2nd here two years ago