harry_rag

absolutely amazing win for us. Go and win the Europa now boys.

@MCLARKE gentle reminder in case it wasn't on your radar.

The RP side with West Ham, largely based on respective form in this competition, whilst acknowledging that Fiorentina had the much better end to the domestic season. Looking at how long it took each team to score their last 25 goals it’s 13 games for Fiorentina and 15 for West Ham. The Italians scored in 11 of those games and the Hammers in 13, with both seeing 9 games where btts landed. I’d rather back btts than try and pick the winner of the tie. Both bets close to a coin toss but I have a stronger view on the outcome of that market.

Thank you. I looked earlier but couldn't see anything.
I'll keep flogging this particular dead horse.
West Ham FT / HT > 1 goal 9/2
Superboost both teams over 2.5 SOT 4/6 to 11/10

Cabral on the bench! 
Jovic starts in his place and is a "B" system bet for me at 10/3 with PP
Also got matched on Benrahma at 5.53 and Bowen at 6.8. The only player I didn't get matched on was Gonzalez who I've won on more than once of late but I'm not chasing the price down too far (which inevitably suggests he'll be the only one to score).

La viola to win and over 2.5 goals scored at 5.00 with Unibet
I've seen the odds been rising on them but I think they will beat the londoners in 90min and it should be at least 3 goals in 90min.

A goal short in the Scottish Cup final but a winner in the English one. Still feels like the returns are running at an unsustainable rate but see if I can keep in the black by the time we reach the 100th bet! Slightly up in real money terms from these types of bets but I suspect that's largely down to finding 4 anytime goalscorer doubles at double digit odds.
Wins Bets Stake Return P/L ROI Boosted P/l ROI Ave 21 65 £1,300.00 £1,589.16 £289.16 22.24% £1,881.45 £581.45 44.73% 4.23                     Goals Win DC BTTS Cards Anytime S(oT) Misc     44 33 13 20 24 26 31 4     28 21 9 16 22 9 19 2    

Fiorentina v West Ham tonight.
West Ham to lift the trophy, btts = yes and Antonio at least 1 shot at 3/1

Fiorentina vs West Ham
Fiorentina, buoyed by their previous result, will be hoping for more of the same after the 3-1 Serie A victory over Sassuolo. In that game, Fiorentina had 49% possession and 15 shots at goal with seven on target. La Viola closed the domestic campaign with two straight wins, finishing in 8th place. However, Fiorentina failed to lift the Coppa Italia title after losing 2-1 to Inter. This time, the Italian team wants to do better, and they don’t want another trophy to slip away from their hands. There is just a single fitness concern for the Fiorentina manager Vincenzo Italiano to be concerned about due to a largely intact squad. Salvatore Sirigu (Achilles tendon rupture) is out of contention.
Since suffering a loss in their previous game against Leicester City in Premier League action, West Ham United will be aiming to make amends here. In that match, West Ham United managed 51% possession and 16 shots at goal with three on target. David Moyes's West Ham United have converted a total of 8 times in the course of their most recent sextet of matches. Despite struggling throughout the Premier League campaign and being on the edge of relegation, the Hammers managed to secure a safe 14th-place finish. Now they have the opportunity to make this disappointing season more successful. With a completely healthy squad available for selection, West Ham United manager David Moyes has zero fitness worries whatsoever coming into this game.
Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            
It is going to be a tight match which can easily go either way. However, we believe Fiorentina is a bit closer to victory, and we will back the Italian team in this clash.
Goals Market Prediction
Neither team has been disciplined in the back recently. Fiorentina managed to keep a clean sheet only once on the previous eight occasions, while West Ham did it twice in the last nine matches. Therefore, we expect to see both teams scoring on Wednesday evening.
Fiorentina to Win @ 2.80
BTTS Yes @ 1.92
Correct score 2:1 @ 10.50

4 players who stand out for me are Cabral (scored in 4 of his last 10 starts and 10 of his last 20), Gonzalez (4-6), Antonio (4-6) and Benrahma (3-6).
All at "not bad" prices, might see if I can turn that to "pretty good" on BF, albeit it with the gamble on who starts. (All 4 are in the probable line ups.)

Interesting picks mate! @Fader has written his Fiorentina vs West Ham betting tips on the main site and made similar suggestions for the scorer markets. I'm personally backing Fiorentina to win on penalties. I wouldn't be surprised if it went all the way and I don't have it in me to risk jinxing Fader's West Ham boys by backing them! Both teams are 17/2 with Bet365 to win on penalties so no difference in price.

A quick crunch of the spread prices to give a flavour for what's expected from this game; might help to identify any potentially "off" fixed odds prices.
Total goals expectation 2.4. Simple use of Poisson function gives "true" odds for >2.5 goals of 2.32 which is pretty much where the fixed odds markets sit Supremacy is West Ham/Fiorentina 0.025 so pretty close to a coin toss with a sliver of favouritism for West Ham. Fixed odds markets are similar but slightly favouring the Italians. Both teams around the 2.9 mark to win in 90 minutes. Both teams a shade of odds on to lift the trophy with the bookies though Fiorentina a shade of odds against on BF. Total corners 9.55 split 5.4 for Fiorentina and 4.15 for West Ham Total booking points 52 evenly split at 26 points each Total goal minutes 123.5 (hovering around the standard 50 minutes per goal mark) Will have a look at the anytime goalscorer prices for some of the more likely scorers.

i am taking Fiorentina.
Not sure those are the best and most reliable arguments but they are 8th in Serie A with +10 goals differential , whereas in Premier League West Ham are 14th with -13 goals differential , the goal differential is quite a big argument for me ; PL is a stronger league than Serie A but still I feel those 50/50 odds have small value on Fiorentina.

The 2022/23 UEFA Europa Conference League Final is now confirmed. It will see Italian Serie A club Fiorentina take on Premier League side West Ham. It's set to be a cracking game and it'll be interesting to see what @Fader feels about his team's chances of winning the trophy. Give us your tips and predictions if you have any thoughts too! 

I’ve sorted out an incorrectly settled bet via Twitter once or twice.

3 from 8 since the last update (Cabral. Ganago and Jackson)
That makes it 55 winners from 149 bets so far for a profit of 234.35 points with an ROI of 15.76%.
20 points lost on 2 bets posted in error.
Current "target" ROI based on overall sample is 14.24% (now based on 533 bets from 3077 selections).

You might be able to boost an acca (as it's effectively 1 bet) but not all elements of a perm. Pretty sure it's been as it is for a while though could have been different when they first brought them in.

I’m finding it harder to identify who does the bonus for 1 winner bar the traditional players and like you have found out the hard way in some cases (although not with a 33/1 winner!)

I read somewhere they were but perhaps that was an old article
I had 1 winner at 33/1 but only paid out £3.40 so obviously not
We live and learn !

You might be able to boost an acca (as it's effectively 1 bet) but not all elements of a perm. Pretty sure it's been as it is for a while though could have been different when they first brought them in.

I think you could put 4 selections in your slip and boost the odds for 4 singles (subject to a maximum total stake limit) but not boost the odds in a permed bet.

A goal short in the Scottish Cup final but a winner in the English one. Still feels like the returns are running at an unsustainable rate but see if I can keep in the black by the time we reach the 100th bet! Slightly up in real money terms from these types of bets but I suspect that's largely down to finding 4 anytime goalscorer doubles at double digit odds.
Wins Bets Stake Return P/L ROI Boosted P/l ROI Ave 21 65 £1,300.00 £1,589.16 £289.16 22.24% £1,881.45 £581.45 44.73% 4.23                     Goals Win DC BTTS Cards Anytime S(oT) Misc     44 33 13 20 24 26 31 4     28 21 9 16 22 9 19 2    

I think you could put 4 selections in your slip and boost the odds for 4 singles (subject to a maximum total stake limit) but not boost the odds in a permed bet.

It's not one of the primary things I look at but it pops onto the radar a bit more these days with the Bet 365 Bet Builder thread. One thing I will say is that I think people tend to overestimate (and over-bet) how often both teams score in a game. I think you had 3 teams who won to nil; I'm not sure how the odds for that compare but my guess would be that you might stand a better chance backing teams to win to nil rather than with btts. I know that the bet can be down more quickly which makes it less appealing for an interest bet but then there tends to be better value in bets that don't appeal to the casual punter.
Partick scoring for fun at the moment and I don't fancy Ross's chances of chasing down a 2 goal deficit from the first leg. Not so easy to call the result (Partick can lose by 1 goal and progress) but I can see btts landing in that one.

I've been doing this every weekend for a few years now. I don't pick anything less than 2/1 but find 11/4 and above is were I like to be. 
If I thought I could get a 4 timer up every 5 or 6 bets I'd be laughing! Realistically I have very long losing runs but have hit 5 a few times which returns a lot, especially with a bunch of 3/1 and above. 
I'm hoping a few people join in with the thread and post even single win and btts fancies that we might be able to collate into an acca. 
Oh and yes apologies it was 11 points! On that note I play points at very very low stakes on these in case people think I'm staking (and losing) a fortune!