harry_rag

My bets then.
Fiver win on Ambiente Friendly at 14/1 using my weekly "Epic" boost.
36p e/w You Got to Me at 14/1 (4 places). Thanks for the largesse Paddy, hopefully get a bit more on nearer the time at decent price/terms
Small e/w bet Dance Sequence at 25/1 (should've been 28s but I cocked up with the boost) Reasonable on the ratings and looks like it's shortening.

I don't think you could prove he's wrong as such, I think you're both right really. You can prove with mathematics that you're more likely to get value each way the more places you get/the smaller the field (or the better % of the field that the place terms give you) but it doesn't mean that you can't get value from an overpriced selection with skinnier place terms. I seem to remember we did quite well without an extra place in the 1000 Guineas.
If you take an overly mathematical approach to it you'll probably miss some great each way bets. If you don't give the field size and place terms adequate consideration you'll probably make a fair few poor value bets. You need to get the psychology and the maths right to get the optimum returns. The main psychological issue is the fear of losing or not getting at least some return.

Some people suggest you need to watch a lot of a sport to know enough about it to do well betting on it and I suspect it would improve my betting if I watched more games but I don’t really have the time and I’m too tight to pay to watch sports! 
I’m currently watching the Europa Conference League final but I probably watch less than 1% of the things I bet on. I suspect a lot of people lose at betting because they feel they know their sport well but have no understanding of odds, probabilities and markets. I like the idea of being able to bet on something I know very little about and beat the odds because I’ve figured out how the market works and can identify value prices. I’m enjoying the rugby league betting this year because it’s entirely automatic based on prices. There’s no looking at any statistics or anything (I used to lose quite heavily when I tried that approach) and I know very little about the sport. I’m intrigued to see if the current returns are sustainable. Another 4 seasons like this and I’ll probably be in front on the sport! 

The maths works for me most of the time, personally I'm not good at interpreting a race visually, I prefer set rules.
According to the wife, who used to teach autistic children, I'm quite high on the scale !

Ok, here's the main ratings again but with a value rating added, which attempts to factor in our overall rating AND the price. Suggested best value 100, the closer to that figure the better the value. Let me know how well (or otherwise) you think that number compares to your subjective assessment. I think it's not bad though it's still influenced by a big price to an extent. (It only looks at the runners with a 100+ rating.)
# Horse Odds BF AvAv V# 1 YLANG YLANG 3.25 3.1 113.0 36.5 2 YOU GOT TO ME 15 16.5 107.7 100.0 3 RUBIES ARE RED 5.5 5.9 106.5 31.1 4 DANCE SEQUENCE 26 23 104.4 99.9 5 SECRET SATIRE 13 15 103.9 43.8 6 TREASURE 19 18.5 103.0 49.6 7 CAUGHT YOU LOOKING 67 42 100.6 35.6 8 FOREST FAIRY 9 10 97.0   9 SEAWARD 67 50 95.3   10 MAKING DREAMS 67 100 94.3   11 WAR CRIMES 101 22 89.4   12 EZELIA 5.5 5.7 84.8   # Horse Odds BF AvAv V# 1 AMBIENTE FRIENDLY 8 7.8 117.9 42.8 2 ANCIENT WISDOM 6 6 110.2 18.3 3 ILLINOIS 41 60 108.2 100.0 4 CITY OF TROY 4 4.7 107.2 8.5 5 DANCING GEMINI 13 17 105.3 20.4 6 SAYEDATY SEDATY 67 80 101.5 30.8 7 MACDUFF 15 15 98.9   8 MR HAMPSTEAD 151 150 98.0   9 BELLUM JUSTUM 26 29 96.9   10 LOS ANGELESE 5 5.3 97.0   11 DIEGO VALAZQUEZ 34 110 96.8   12 DEIRA MILE 26 30 94.7   13 PORTLAND 101 70 94.2   14 GODS WINDOW 101 80 93.5   15 EUPHORIC 41 50 91.9   16 DALLAS STAR 41 46 87.9   17 KAMBOO 151 170 86.8   18 PADESHA 101 500 86.6   19 VOYAGE 26 24 83.5   20 TABLETALK 101 150 80.7  

My bets then.
Fiver win on Ambiente Friendly at 14/1 using my weekly "Epic" boost.
36p e/w You Got to Me at 14/1 (4 places). Thanks for the largesse Paddy, hopefully get a bit more on nearer the time at decent price/terms
Small e/w bet Dance Sequence at 25/1 (should've been 28s but I cocked up with the boost) Reasonable on the ratings and looks like it's shortening.

Ada Lovelace one of the greatest mathematicians of the last century  lost all her money betting on horses using the mathematical approach. I sometimes think Micheal misses the point with his staunch belief in his mathematical approach in that betting on racing is not a science, mathematics is a useful tool but the most useful tool is eyesight and being able to interpret what you see and then using science/math to see if you can confirm/support your belief. Memory is even more essential to making money betting long term in my opinion. The best tool i have is my notebook it always has been even though i produce my own speed figures and my Math is reasonably good. An interesting point is the Psychology aspect of betting and the fear of losing which for me disappeared once i didn't need to win to feed the kids blah blah or to put in a better light, when i could afford to lose. That freedom is what enables me to bet without fear within the stakes i am comfortable with, for example no matter how strong a bet you think you have, putting £1000 quid on an event (which i have done on no more than a few occasions) brings back all those psychological disadvantages. The fools in the game are those (Terry Ramsden) that can just shrug off losing without understanding why they are losing and or refuse to at least leave losing strategies behind in favour of trying a new approach or reducing their stakes to a manageable level. It seems Micheal has found a way using Math to make a profit and that is something no one can knock but most punters are crap at maths so he would be an exception to the rule in my opinion.

Bodo Glimt v Sandefjord...over 0.5 goals @ 1.02.

By highest individual rating...
# Horse Odds BF MaxAv 1 YLANG YLANG 3.25 3.1 122.4 2 EZELIA 5.5 5.7 114.0 3 YOU GOT TO ME 15 16.5 113.3 4 RUBIES ARE RED 5.5 5.9 112.0 5 DANCE SEQUENCE 26 23 111.5 6 TREASURE 19 18.5 109.4 7 SECRET SATIRE 13 15 109.0 8 CAUGHT YOU LOOKING 67 42 107.2 9 MAKING DREAMS 67 100 107.0 10 WAR CRIMES 101 22 104.3 11 FOREST FAIRY 9 10 101.8 12 SEAWARD 67 50 100.5 and the lowest...
# Horse Odds BF MinAv 1 YLANG YLANG 3.25 3.1 106.1 2 YOU GOT TO ME 15 16.5 102.6 3 RUBIES ARE RED 5.5 5.9 101.8 4 TREASURE 19 18.5 98.6 5 CAUGHT YOU LOOKING 67 42 96.7 6 SECRET SATIRE 13 15 94.2 7 DANCE SEQUENCE 26 23 93.8 8 FOREST FAIRY 9 10 91.8 9 SEAWARD 67 50 88.8 10 MAKING DREAMS 67 100 86.2 11 WAR CRIMES 101 22 82.4 12 EZELIA 5.5 5.7 50.4 So just the 3 that everyone regards as above average.

# Horse Odds BF AvAv 1 YLANG YLANG 3.25 3.1 113.0 2 YOU GOT TO ME 15 16.5 107.7 3 RUBIES ARE RED 5.5 5.9 106.5 4 DANCE SEQUENCE 26 23 104.4 5 SECRET SATIRE 13 15 103.9 6 TREASURE 19 18.5 103.0 7 CAUGHT YOU LOOKING 67 42 100.6 8 FOREST FAIRY 9 10 97.0 9 SEAWARD 67 50 95.3 10 MAKING DREAMS 67 100 94.3 11 WAR CRIMES 101 22 89.4 12 EZELIA 5.5 5.7 84.8 For the Oaks we have a lowest rated horse that looks like a potential lay until you factor in that one of you has it as their top rated!

I don't think you could prove he's wrong as such, I think you're both right really. You can prove with mathematics that you're more likely to get value each way the more places you get/the smaller the field (or the better % of the field that the place terms give you) but it doesn't mean that you can't get value from an overpriced selection with skinnier place terms. I seem to remember we did quite well without an extra place in the 1000 Guineas.
If you take an overly mathematical approach to it you'll probably miss some great each way bets. If you don't give the field size and place terms adequate consideration you'll probably make a fair few poor value bets. You need to get the psychology and the maths right to get the optimum returns. The main psychological issue is the fear of losing or not getting at least some return.

It's worth looking out for bets relating to the number of games going to extra time or penalties as the bookies seem to underestimate how many knockout ties end up in a stalemate. I make it just shy of 38% in the last 6 Euros and World Cups (12 tournaments and 148 games excluding 3rd place games as there isn't one in the Euros).
In terms of pens you could make a case for >1.5 at 5/6 Sky Bet or >2.5 11/10 Hills. There have been 2 or more in 8 out of 8 tournaments that included a round of 16 (so 15 knockout games) and 3 or more in 6 of the 8. 3 of the 4 Euros that only involved 7 KO games still saw 2 shootouts.
Hills go evens for >4 games to go to extra time which isn't bad given that it's landed in 6 of those 8 tournaments. Sky Bet, though, offer the same price for an >3.5 line which was covered in all 8. 3 of the other 4 Euros I looked at saw 3 from just the 7 games.
I think you'd do well to find many better value bets on the competition, whether antepost or on individual games.

To be fair it was only an initial take and I'm only the admin! Your point is sound though we may end up with a smaller field and better terms perhaps come the off time.

While we wait for the Oaks market to reform, presumably due to the 48 hour stage, here's the main ratings for the Derby with a clear top rated and an eye-catching e/w option in 3rd place.
# Horse Odds BF AvAv 1 AMBIENTE FRIENDLY 8 7.8 117.9 2 ANCIENT WISDOM 6 6 110.2 3 ILLINOIS 41 60 108.2 4 CITY OF TROY 4 4.7 107.2 5 DANCING GEMINI 13 17 105.3 6 SAYEDATY SEDATY 67 80 101.5 7 MACDUFF 15 15 98.9 8 MR HAMPSTEAD 151 150 98.0 9 BELLUM JUSTUM 26 29 96.9 10 LOS ANGELESE 5 5.3 97.0 11 DIEGO VALAZQUEZ 34 110 96.8 12 DEIRA MILE 26 30 94.7 13 PORTLAND 101 70 94.2 14 GODS WINDOW 101 80 93.5 15 EUPHORIC 41 50 91.9 16 DALLAS STAR 41 46 87.9 17 KAMBOO 151 170 86.8 18 PADESHA 101 500 86.6 19 VOYAGE 26 24 83.5 20 TABLETALK 101 150 80.7

That it's a good each way bet because the odds are high. I would argue the Derby is a poor race for any each way bet as you only get 1/5 the odds for the first 3 in a 20 runner race, you would get the same terms if there were only 8 runners.
 

Quite possibly but which one?

You've fallen in to the trap !

While we wait for the Oaks market to reform, presumably due to the 48 hour stage, here's the main ratings for the Derby with a clear top rated and an eye-catching e/w option in 3rd place.
# Horse Odds BF AvAv 1 AMBIENTE FRIENDLY 8 7.8 117.9 2 ANCIENT WISDOM 6 6 110.2 3 ILLINOIS 41 60 108.2 4 CITY OF TROY 4 4.7 107.2 5 DANCING GEMINI 13 17 105.3 6 SAYEDATY SEDATY 67 80 101.5 7 MACDUFF 15 15 98.9 8 MR HAMPSTEAD 151 150 98.0 9 BELLUM JUSTUM 26 29 96.9 10 LOS ANGELESE 5 5.3 97.0 11 DIEGO VALAZQUEZ 34 110 96.8 12 DEIRA MILE 26 30 94.7 13 PORTLAND 101 70 94.2 14 GODS WINDOW 101 80 93.5 15 EUPHORIC 41 50 91.9 16 DALLAS STAR 41 46 87.9 17 KAMBOO 151 170 86.8 18 PADESHA 101 500 86.6 19 VOYAGE 26 24 83.5 20 TABLETALK 101 150 80.7

While we wait for the Oaks market to reform, presumably due to the 48 hour stage, here's the main ratings for the Derby with a clear top rated and an eye-catching e/w option in 3rd place.
# Horse Odds BF AvAv 1 AMBIENTE FRIENDLY 8 7.8 117.9 2 ANCIENT WISDOM 6 6 110.2 3 ILLINOIS 41 60 108.2 4 CITY OF TROY 4 4.7 107.2 5 DANCING GEMINI 13 17 105.3 6 SAYEDATY SEDATY 67 80 101.5 7 MACDUFF 15 15 98.9 8 MR HAMPSTEAD 151 150 98.0 9 BELLUM JUSTUM 26 29 96.9 10 LOS ANGELESE 5 5.3 97.0 11 DIEGO VALAZQUEZ 34 110 96.8 12 DEIRA MILE 26 30 94.7 13 PORTLAND 101 70 94.2 14 GODS WINDOW 101 80 93.5 15 EUPHORIC 41 50 91.9 16 DALLAS STAR 41 46 87.9 17 KAMBOO 151 170 86.8 18 PADESHA 101 500 86.6 19 VOYAGE 26 24 83.5 20 TABLETALK 101 150 80.7

Looks like we're down to 12 for the Oaks, I've removed the 3 that have been scratched but I assume that doesn't affect anyone's ratings for those that remain.

already mailed it but there is a fault on the Derby totr (allr) column i am sure you will notice and rectify..

Okay sorry about that chaps and chapessess think that's rectified the issue.

I quite like the tennis for a bet, but only really the big tournaments. I look for the better players to 'win a set'. Wimbledon is my preference, the French one doesn't inspire me that much but I'll keep an eye on it.

That was my thinking. If you are going to look at tennis on here then now's the time.

I've been known to dabble when there's a GS going on (as now) but I'm wary of betting on something I know so little about (unless I've got a viable system on the go) and there's no rush with this one. Might bear it in mind but I've no desire to force the pace.
I'd be putting a fair few rugby bets up if we weren't "exchange only" but I can't be bothered looking for good bets when they're with a firm I can't even bet with. (Unlike the 365 goalscorer thread where I'm seeing the prices anyway.) I seem to recall some generous (if short) prices for teams to trail at anytime being offered.