harry_rag

We go again! 20 points on a Son assist at 14/5 Lads.

Great! It's nice to see someone winning so much over the long term.

Made up at 125 for a 70 point loss! 
Will have to post a few more of my bookings sells now to see if they can give a better account of themselves! (These are bets I place anyway but just don't usually post on here.)

Huddersfield v Cardiff: 20 points on Campbell to score at 13/4 with Uni and 30 on Moore to score at 9/5 with PP
Dutching each team's main man in the belief that the odds are slightly better than fair.

Huddersfield vs Cardiff
The Friday night game in the Championship is a clash between Huddersfield and Cardiff in a 7:45pm GMT kick-off from the John Smith's Stadium. These two sides enter this game with contrasting spells of form with ambitions that now appear to be focused on opposite ends of the table. Will the result follow the form book or can we anticipate an upset here?
Huddersfield are a team that look like they need a serious rebuild. The decision to replace Danny Cowley with little known former Leeds United coach Carlos Corberan is a gamble that doesn't look like paying off. The Terriers are down in 19th place and just 5 points above the drop zone with a number of teams below them possessing games in hand. It's now just 1 win in their last 12 league games. That single win was a stunning 4-1 win over automatic promotion chasing Swansea though so you feel they're still a team that can pull a result out of the bag every now and then. Home form has been a saviour for Huddersfield so far with the club winning 8 of their 17 home league games but it is just 1 win from their last 6 home league games.
Cardiff might not have been in vintage form in their last game away to Middlesbrough last weekend but the team bounced back to winning ways with the impressive 4-0 win at home to Derby in midweek. That result extended the Bluebirds' unbeaten run under Mick McCarthy to 10 league games. The former Wolves and Ipswich gaffer was rewarded with a 2-year contract. Now, the superstitious football fan in me is now expecting our form to melt away after that contract extension. However, McCarthy has turned us into such an organised and hard-working unit that it's difficult to see how we won't keep these performances going. It's 6 away games unbeaten for Cardiff including winning the 4 of the last 5 away league matches.
If the respective form of these two teams wasn't enough to have you backing Cardiff for the win then the fact that Huddersfield haven't beaten the Welsh side in their last 14 meetings adds further weight to that opinion. Huddersfield have only managed to score 1 goal in their previous 6 encounters with Cardiff meaning the play-off chasers have kept 5 clean sheets in that time. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar outcome here. Anything other than a solid win for Cardiff must be considered a disappointment. I'm going to thoroughly enjoy going on Gabriel Sutton's EFL Fans Show tonight at 5pm, backing a Cardiff win, and then witnessing my club inevitably let me down as they have done over the years.
Cardiff to Win @ 2.20 with Unibet
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 2.28 with SBK

Son assist bet was a winner... for all of 2 minutes till they changed it to an own goal! Them’s the breaks, had a goal disallowed by VAR last night that saved me about as much as I’d have won tonight. Well done with Spurs.

1885 result: Spurs won 1-0.  Won £100
Profit to date £2071.24
Fancied Spurs tonight Harry, but it was close. 

Bearing in mind I've just posted elsewhere that "a simple and not wholly unreasonable premise is that betting on players to get an assist is a mug's game" you might want to disregard the following. In my defense though, I also said "there may be exceptions where some consistent and prolific players (Son, De Bruyne) are on offer at value prices".
Fulham v Spurs: 20 points on Son to assist a goal at 17/5 with Uni, 5 points on him to assist and score a goal at 11/1 with the same firm, 1 point on him and Kane to assist a goal for each other at 50/1 Sky Bet.
Son has 8 assists and 13 goals from 25 league appearances this season. He did both in 4 games. I don't know the stats for him and Kane assisting one another (and not going to extra effort for a 1 point bet) but I'm happy that you'd have done well taking 50/1 in every game they both started.

Good luck. Some shrewdie tipping a Son assist in the footy thread! 

1885. £110 Tottenham @10/11 (v Fulham)

Bit of a "scrap pad" thread to test a theory.
I think we all know what a goal is (!?!) and I'll take it as read we're familiar with the concept of an assist. Not every goal has an assist credited to it (own goals, penalties, rebounds etc.).
A simple and not wholly unreasonable premise is that betting on players to get an assist is a mug's game. This will be largely true as a lot of the punters will be ill informed and the odds will be rank bad value for the majority of bets. There may be exceptions where some consistent and prolific players (Son, De Bruyne) are on offer at value prices.
The flip side of that assumption is that betting on players NOT to get an assist could be a profitable endeavour. Few, if any, fixed odds firms offer the option but we can sell a player's assist minutes on the spreads. As per goal minutes, if you sold a player's assist minutes at 20 and he didn't register an assist you'd win 20 x your stake. If he assisted a goal after 50 minutes you'd lose 30 x stake and if he added a second in the last minute you'd lose 120 x stake.
I'm going to track how you'd do selling a sample of 100 players at prices >10. My estimate is that this will show a profit. I'll guess at a 400 point return to 1 point stakes. I'll track when time allows till I get to 100. First selections to follow shortly.

Let's have a go! Sold bookings for 1 point at 55 in the game (that's about to start) between Ankaragucu and Galatasaray.
This is a "routine" sell for me rather than one of those fixed odds bets that I waste time researching so I haven't looked at the ref or team stats. Win or lose, it's all about grinding out a long term profit with these bets.

I'll persist with De Bruyne to assist a goal (or two) while the prices appeal.
28 points on an assist at 13/10 and 10 on 2 or more at 8/1 with PP.
Not a game that appeals for bookings bets but if you want a "lean" I'd go for >20 at 10/11 with PP.

I recalled links to tutorials in earlier posts so had a quick look. One here and the guy has a Youtube channel which may be of use to you.
 

Manchester City vs Wolves
The midweek action in the Premier League kicks off on Tuesday night when league leaders Manchester City look to extend their lead at the top of the table against an improving Wolves team in an 8pm GMT kick-off at the Etihad Stadium. Everything is pointing towards another solid home win but if there's one team that has had decent results against the hosts over recent years then it's the visitors here.
Manchester City are looking like a team destined to win the top flight title once again. Pep Guardiola's men extended their winning run to 20 games across all competitions meaning that the Citizens are now undefeated in 27 matches in all competitions. They require just one more game without defeat to set a new club record. If you want to compare how far ahead of the competition City are this season then they have won 14 league games in a row. The next best consecutive wins record held by a team in the division is 4 league games won in a row. For all their attacking riches, the defensive performances of City remain the high point of their season with Ederson keeping 15 clean sheets in the league.
Wolves had looked like a team short on ideas when Raul Jimenez was ruled out with a fractured skull. Credit to Nuno Espirito Santo, he has galvanized his team, brought in the necessary personnel, and jigged things around to get their season back on track. Wanderers are in 12th place and now just as close to the Champions League qualification spots as they are to the relegation places. The team is now unbeaten in 5 league games as they are starting to re-discover their best form. They will also feel quietly confident about taking something from this game having beaten City in 3 of their last 4 encounters. However, when the sides met earlier this season at Molineux it ended in a resounding 3-1 win for City. Away form remains a problem for Wolves with the club only managing 1 win in their last 8 away league matches.
I have to say that when I initially went to write this preview I thought that with Wolves displaying encouraging form they could be a problem for Manchester City once again. Unfortunately, I think this City side is a lot wiser, resilient, and street wise than the City of previous seasons that fell foul to the restrictive nature of the Wolves set-up. I also don't feel Wolves are quite back at the levels they were hitting in 2019 when they inflicted three defeats onto City in a single calendar year. I am expecting another win added to the City steam train that has a destination of the Premier League title.
Manchester City to Win to Nil @ 1.80 with Sporting Index
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.22 with SBK

Just the one card for 10 points.

Besiktas v Denizlispor: 18 points on <50 booking points at 11/10 Skybet
Evens or less for me that this reaches 50 points so ok at 11/10 to go under. Experienced ref Cakir in charge and, over the last 3 seasons, 35 of his 59 top flight games have gone under 50. The 3 recent meetings (since both clubs were back in the same division) have seen make ups of 20, 40 and 60. 
 

On 4-6 cards shown in the Real Madrid v Sociedad game at 11/10 with Hills. Ticks all the boxes for me to be evens at the most.

4-6 cards at 13/10 looks a bit big to me in tonight's B2 game between St Pauli and Hamburg.
Unless the bookings expectation is unusually high or low it tends to be much closer to a coin toss than that.

It's a fair point, though perhaps at a more general level. I hadn't considered it at all but I doubt it's having the effect you refer to; players are happy enough to greet each other and celebrate goals so I doubt they'd be diffident in the heat of battle. That said, the whole "no crowd" thing that seems to be impacting home advantage may also take a degree of heat out of the battle sometimes. I'd be interested to know if bookings averages have dropped at all, or if the home/away cards split has changed at all.
Like most markets it's more likely you'll find value by betting on things that most people don't want to bet on and that means going low rather than high. There will still be times, though, where any value in the market is on the overs line.
Historically I've done well with cards but it's a very labour intensive market. You've got to trawl the firms to see what lines and prices are on offer as it's not well covered on the comparison sites. Also you're not just looking at the 2 teams but have to take a good look at the referee stats as well. I've enjoyed going back to it a bit but it will only be where time allows a proper study of a game or two.

Sorry it's a bit last minute but having another of my occasional tilts at the assist windmill!
Spurs v Burnley: 20 points on Son to assist a goal at 13/5 and 10 on Kane to assist a goal at 6/1, both Lads
Son a consistent provider, Kane flattered by this season's freak stats but 6/1 feels generous.

City win and De Bruyne assisted the opening goal which at least gave me a run for the fiver on the losing bet (Mahrez assisted the other goal).

Leeds vs Aston Villa
The 5:30pm GMT kick-off in the Premier League on Saturday is the game between Leeds and Aston Villa at Elland Road. These two teams have had contrasting seasons in the way they have trailed or led in matches. Will that have a bearing on the outcome here or will we see two sides going at it that can't be separated despite their opposing approaches.
Leeds will be looking to make it 3 league wins at home in a row in this match after previous victories in this stadium against Crystal Palace and Southampton. Marcelo Bielsa's men are in 10th place and that's probably a fair assessment given their inconsistency so far this campaign. The Whites will once again be without the trio of Kalvin Phillips, Robin Koch, and Rodrigo but could also have Mateusz Klich unavailable through injury. Unfortunately, Leeds haven't won any of their 4 home league games against teams in the top half of the table. There is one thing you can't fault Leeds for this season and that's scoring goals. The club's 43 goals scored after 25 league games is their highest goal tally in the top flight since 1991/92 when they last won the title.
Aston Villa come into another league game without creative figurehead Jack Grealish. The 2-1 loss to Leicester last weekend might have been narrow but Grealish's absence was clear to see. The Villa are now in 8th place and 7 points off the pace of the current European qualification spots. Dean Smith's men have only managed 1 win from their last 4 league games. It's also just 1 victory from their last 6 away league matches. All but one of their league victories this season have been with a clean sheet and with 7 clean sheets on the road it's clear to see how their emphasis on defensive solidity has been key to their victories. It's a shame then that they face a side that are unlikely to fail to score. It doesn't help that Ollie Watkins hasn't scored in 7 appearances against Leeds.
It was Leeds who came out as 3-0 winners when these sides met at Villa Park earlier in the season with Patrick Bamford getting an impressive hat-trick. These two teams have only experienced one draw from their last combined 25 league games. There has also not been a single draw in any of the last 16 meetings between these two teams. I feel Aston Villa are going to miss Grealish more than Leeds will feel the absence of Phillips. I can see a solid home win here.
Leeds to Win @ 2.32 with Novibet
Anytime Scorer: Patrick Bamford @ 2.30 with BetVictor

Newcastle vs Wolves
The final game of Saturday in the Premier League is the 8pm GMT kick-off between Newcastle and Wolves at St James' Park. This is a clash between two teams that are experiencing underwhelming campaigns so far but with the home side nearing the relegation spots they will be keen to get a win against a visiting team that are starting to build up a run of results.
Newcastle have been in trouble for some time now and it's not surprising that some fans are even calling for Steve Bruce to be sacked. The Magpies are down in 17th place and just 3 points outside the relegation zone. The 3-1 loss away to Manchester United last weekend made it 8 losses in their last 10 league games. It's no wonder Fulham fans are starting to believe their team can catch the Toon Army. Callum Wilson remains injured and that's a big problem for Newcastle. Not only are goals hard to come by for the team right now but they've also conceded at least 2 goals in each of the last 4 home league games. Just 1 win from their last 6 league games at home shows how desperate their situation has become. Bruce himself has only managed 1 win in 9 top flight meetings with Wolves.
Wolves are starting to look more like the team that did so well last season and the season before. Nuno Espirito Santo has led his team to an unbeaten run of 4 league games including 3 victories that has helped move the club to 12th in the table and realistically away from the clutching grasp of relegation. The signing of Willian Jose has given the team more balance even if he's not scored a league goal yet and Pedro Neto has stepped up with the goals. One issue this season has been the slow start to games that Wolves endure. They have earned 19 points from losing positions with only Manchester United boasting a better record.
I'm wondering if this could be the week we see Newcastle drop into the relegation zone. It's hard to see where their next win is going to come from and with it being a double game week I feel Fulham could well catch them. Wolves are looking resurgent and they're a difficult team to play at this moment. I can only see an away win as the sensible bet to back.
Wolves to Win @ 2.33 with Unibet
Anytime Scorer: Pedro Neto @ 4.50 with SpreadEx

Man C v West Ham:
10 points on City to win at evens with Hills (flash odds to limited stakes that it would be rude not to take)
40 points on De Bruyne to assist a goal at 6/4 with Hills (his stats are extraordinary and he should be much closer to evens at home to West Ham)
5 points on De Bruyne to assist a goal in each half at 22/1 with Hills (7/1 for 2+ assists looks about fair but 22/1 for one either side of the break is a bit too big)