only1woz
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Posts posted by only1woz
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Original post is VERY hard to follow as his English is so poor. Seems to have some merits tbf.
Spoken to a few people online over the years that had their own form tables. One guy had his own league tables based on form, not results. As in, if Man City batter Watford then Watford hold out and nick a last minute winner he'd give the points to Man City as the result wasn't a true reflection of the game and wouldn't make Man City more likely to drop points in the next match.
Seemed effective,but very, very time consuming. Fine if you don't already have a job haha.
This seems like a branch out of that. Could be refined to maybe be profitable, but less time consuming than the original idea of coming up with your own fully detailed league tables based on form.
Best way to use the theory would be up for debate. I'm more inclined towards singles but I admit I can be a bit tunnel visioned when it comes to that lol
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Sorted. Did a system restore to a few days ago and it's fixed now.
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Anyone having issues with cgmbet tool? Or able to help me fix mine?
Tried to update it today but seems to have deleted a lot, if not all, of the files?
When I click on the icon now instead of loading up as normal it loads up in "Microsoft visual fox Pro" and just lists the files, all of which seem to be empty?
Just when I was going to use it for this weeks bets too........ Lol
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Just out of interest, presuming the teams that you expect to be there and aren't (celtic, r Madrid etc) are still winning most of those matches, would ht draw ft home win be worth looking at for them?
Bookies will be expecting the ht/ft home win too so odds might be decent -
You need to define the value of a point. It's up to you how you split your bank. The value of your profit in £ will then define how many points profit you made.
For example, if you decide its £2 and have £370 at the end of the month then yes you've made 10 points profit.
However if you decide its £1 per point and have £370 at the end of the month, then you have 20 points profit but you're risking 2 points per month to achieve it.
In short, you need to decide what value a point has, bet accordingly and your monetary P&L at the end of the month will tell you how many points profit you have.
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Highs and lows, as I say. I've found a few systems that I've thought "yeah, this is the one" but none have quite gone the distance yet. Thankfully, with a full season of testing (unless it shows REAL promise) then small stakes I haven't lost much. Got one that I've just started testing about 2 weeks ago, and another that I tested from March this year to May, and looks very promising so I'll start with small stakes in a few weeks. It's based on form so I need 8 or 10 games before any selections come up.
So a couple of examples I have are a guy on a Facebook group I'm on, costing £40 for lifetime membership . He doesn't keep well and had to give up work so betting is his only income. He doesn't make fortunes but it creates a decent enough income for him. He is mainly horses, but has a couple of football systems too. I don't really get horses but he did brilliantly off them, usually his picks were based off of in form trainers. His football systems weren't really big earners, but made him a couple of grand every season so he could pay for a decent summer holiday for him and his wife. Not someone who made absolute fortunes, but probably could have if he'd been a bit more adventurous, but maybe his discipline is why he keeps making profit? His dad is really unwell atm so he doesn't have time to post his selections every day anymore so that fb group is pretty much dead atm, tho may come back, who knows?
Another guy was from a previous Facebook group I was in (this was £15 up to £45 monthly subscription). His method was basically to be part of a few betting groups that posted profit every month, and just place their bets. Now, he made a lot of money doing this. He was placing £275.00 per point on his bets, and had to use Asian bookies as all UK ones had banned him. He would make £5k or £6k every month normally, which is about 20 or 30 points profit, and once had a month with £20k profit.
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1 hour ago, robstars7 said:
I wished there was an easier way to test it.
Its true what u say about successful gamblers not positing on forums but there’s generally a lack of helpful information in regards to successfully betting on football on the internet. No decent YouTube videos, forums are just tipsters, no skype groups etc..... which worries me that no one has concrete evidence of what is a successful method with football.
With all due respect, this is beginning to sound like you just don't want to do the hard graft and want someone to give you step by step instructions on how to make money. That isn't going to happen. Apologies if I've misunderstood.
I'm in my 11th or 12 year of online betting and still trying to find something that works the way I want it to. But I'm enjoying the highs and lows of it.
And I'm damn sure that if I ever do find a successful system that makes me good money every season then I won't just be giving it away to random strangers on the Internet.
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1 hour ago, robstars7 said:
That seems overkill and would take the fun out of it? Like a season is a massive amount of time.
Thats something Iv considered too. Looking what the results are for a system that isn’t meant. That might be something to look into actually.
Are you allowed to say the Facebook groups and the forums?
It's just the way I do it. I'm not doing it for fun, I'd love to be able to make at least a part time wage from betting and in an absolute ideal world be able to give up work and make a decent living from it.
I'm not sure if I'm allowed to mention that stuff, could pm you. But professional gamblers exist out there so it's obviously possible.
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Personally, I can paper trade a system for a full season, if not more, until I'm happy to place money on it. And then I'll start with stakes of £1 or £2. If the system continues to work, and my bank goes up then I increase my stakes accordingly. Takes discipline, but I'd rather paper trade for the rest of my life than lose fortunes.
I know of a few guys from verious forums and Facebook betting groups that make a very (some VERY!) good living from their betting.
Obviously it's not easy, if it was there'd be no betting as there'd be no bookies left.
Personally I keep records. I'll see someone else's system on here or another forum, and record the results for a few months. If it's good, I'll start with small stakes. Sometimes I notice other patterns of results. Like, it might be a draw system but from recording results I can see a lot of matches end u2.5 goals, so I'll look at that. Try to spot some patterns.
Still looking for my "golden system" that will make my fortunes, but I live in hope.
Best of luck mate
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Hey buddy, how do I get the vip? Do I need to pm you?
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Hi just downloaded the software. Looks impressive. Will just register my interest also in the VIP access. Going to watch through some of the youtube tutorials for it.
Longstanding member of PL
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Personally, I would look for teams with poor defenses.
I seen someone say this on a betting forum years ago and it rings true for me, but he said that even the best attacks can be stopped by a good defence, but a bad defence will leak goals, even against a poor attack.
so I used to focus on teams that leaked goals rather than go for the obvious good teams to score.
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I'm guessing it was my system you seen in here.
Can be profitable, but long losing streaks, while expected, can be a bit soul destroying.
Good luck!
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I'd say keep a record of all of your bets over about 6 months, maybe more. See what sports you're more profitable with and ditch the ones that you're not doing so well on?
Keeping records is vital to successful betting in my opinion
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I'd be happy to hear of this strategy if you're giving it away
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Thanks for all your efforts on this JTW, it's been an enjoyable thread, cheers!
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Will update last week's results later, at work right now. This midweek is
Apoel draw @4.8
Spartak @6.6
Qarabag draw @4.8
Cska Moscow @6.2
Sporting Lisbon draw @5.7
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Back with this, here's this weeks selections
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Interestingly, Matt Ritchie of Newcastle only received a yellow card for an almost identical challenge to Manes, against Swansea today.
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Had a feeling this one might crop up on here today lol. Spent all day arguing with people on twitter about it.
Now, I'll start by saying that I haven't actually seen it yet, I'll watch it tonight, and I'll also point out that I'm a Liverpool fan.
From what I can see, and from descriptions of the incident, it should have been a yellow. It's a reckless challenge that endangered an opponent. The law states that serious foul play needs to be excessive force or brutality AND endangering an opponent. From what I'm told (and sir Puntalot reaffirms it) there isn't any malice from Manes challenge.If I have a different opinion after seeing it later then I'll let you know, but from what I can tell it should have been yellow.
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On 08/25/2017 at 11:17 PM, Sir Puntalot said:
@only1woz - great insight, amateur referee or not.
Looking to go Pro?
Not looking to go pro mate, I'm too old for a start, and I get enough grief as it is just with the amateur lads lol.
As for sterling, I get what you're saying. I don't want you to take this the wrong way mate, but you're looking at it from a fans point of view. Unfortunately there is no "common sense" in this situation, he either was too exuberant in his celebrations or he wasn't. If Mike Dean didn't book him then it's almost certain that his assessor in the stand would have marked him down for it. Especially as it's actually a health and safety issue. Young kids can get hurt when the crowd surges forward in that situation. All the players know the rules so it's up to them to stay on the right side of the law. Mike Dean ultimately did his job fully so imho shouldn't be criticised for that, the player should.
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They may be of the opinion that the referee seen the incident well enough to make his own decision, I'm not sure. When I'm being a linesman and I see an incident I think should be addressed then I need to think about whether the referee has seen the incident and just decided differently to me. That's important, because he is the man in the middle and we may not always agree, but it's ultimately his decision. If I feel he hasn't seen something and I have, then I definitely bring his attention to it. Maybe the same scenario with VAR?
As for the red, yes his intention is, in my opinion, to hurt the other player. In my opinion it's one of those situations where he uses the fact that the ball is there as an excuse so he can say "I went for the ball" but in my opinion he went to hurt him, so red for me. I think if the ref sees it from the other angle he probably agrees with me.
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Yeah should have been red, but from the refs position he can't see thru the guy on the grounds body so he can't see the studs going in. Understand why he gave the yellow.
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Lay The Draw CgmBet Selections
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Have come up with some selections using Giraldis excellent tool. A lot of Lays, a few Back bets depending on the permutations. I'll privately test this but will put my LTD selections up in this thread and see how it goes until the end of the season. This should (SHOULD!) show profit but only testing with Lay stakes of £10.00. Odds from Betfair.