Thanks Jimmy moving pick but alas a non runner and Blue Cove was 3rd @ 50/1 i'm stuck in hospital hard to get sorted at moment hopefully home tomorrow
new pick
20:45 Kempton: Light From Mars @ 25/1 stan James e/w thanks
MY ANTE-POST DIARY - 2016/2017
PART 15
My final ante-post diary update ahead of the Cheltenham Festival. I had planned to do some updates throughout the week of the Festival but I will be putting a few bets up here and I am content that those bets will be good enough to take us through the week. I will then do a debrief the Tuesday after the meeting to reflect on how we have fared.
Looking ahead to next week, the going on the first day of the Festival is always a source of some discussion and Simon Claisse described the ground as ‘good to soft’ this week. However, there is plenty of rain forecast between now and the start of the Festival, so there has to be a chance that the meeting will start on soft ground. That would be an interesting turn of events considering that most of the time spent talking about the Festival often involves horses being suited by a sounder surface, although it is worth saying that I don’t think it will be very soft.
Champion Hurdle
Considering our position on Moon Racer in the Champion Hurdle, it has been encouraging to see money for David Pipe’s gelding for this race in the last few days. Having advised him at 20/1 a few weeks ago, he is now just 10/1 with the same firm and has drifted on Betfair for his alternative race, the Supreme. Despite not having seen him since Cheltenham in November, I am still confident that he has a strong chance in what looks a weaker renewal of the Champion Hurdle than we have been used to in recent years. The form of that Cheltenham win has been given a good boost since and the fact that he has only been beaten once in his life underlines just how much ability he has. David Pipe has said that he will be left in both races at the five-day stage before making a decision at declaration time but at this stage, I would be surprised if he went down the novice route.
One who looks less likely to line up in the Champion Hurdle is Tombstone whose connections are likely to be tempted to run him in one of the handicaps. Considering the number of Irish connections who have bemoaned their treatment by the British handicapper, this one’s mark seems to have deterred the Gigginstown team from supplementing the seven-year-old. He holds entries in both the Coral Cup and the County Hurdle.
Stayers Hurdle
In the staying hurdle division, there is little doubt that Unowhatimeanharry will be sent off favourite for this race as he is currently as short as Evens for the race. However, following the injury to Barry Geraghty, it is now unclear who will pick up the ride on the all-conquering nine-year-old. Personally, I suspect that Noel Fehily will pick up the ride having ridden him for most of last season and he has also picked up a couple of spare rides for JP McManus already this term.
In terms of my selection Jezki, it has been confirmed that Mark Walsh will take the ride on him in the Stayers, which is a welcome relief following a few months of uncertainty about his potential target. I think he has all the ability to pose a serious challenge to the favourite and if the ground is good, I think he can run a big race for us.
Looking at market support in recent days, Shaneshill has attracted some money at around the 8/1 mark. He was a close second in the RSA at last year’s Festival but his last two runs over hurdles have suggested he can be a force in this contest. He took a crashing fall when still in contention at Leopardstown over Christmas but made amends at Gowran last time when getting the better of Snow Falcon. He seems pretty versatile in terms of ground and I can see why he has attracted support.
Gold Cup
Nothing much to report just over a week out from the Gold Cup but Djakadam did please in a schooling session after racing at Leopardstown on Sunday. The eight-year-old was neat at his fences and considering that he has had his fair share of jumping problems in the past, it was good to see him jump without alarm. He has enjoyed a much smoother preparation for this year’s Gold Cup than he did last year and if he can reproduce either of his two previous runs in the Gold Cup, it is hard to see him being too far away at the final fence.
Jonjo O’Neill is likely to saddle two with outside chances in the shape of Minella Rocco and More Of That, although he does concede that Native River is the one to beat. The former could wear cheekpieces in the Gold Cup in an attempt to get him to concentrate and it is worth bearing in mind that he beat Native River at last year’s Festival. The latter ran his best race for some time at Leopardstown last month before unseating at the final fence and if he can reproduce that sort of form, then he would have an outside squeak.
Novice Hurdlers
Supreme
It has been interesting to read some of the reports from the preview evenings in recent days and a common theme has been that people are keen to oppose the favourite Melon. Gordon Elliott was keen to point out that the horse he beat at Leopardstown was only rated 110 in Ireland and that the winner would have to improve a good deal to justify his general 4/1 price. He is clearly priced up on his connections and the visual impression that he created that day and I am inclined to agree that he is worth taking on at the current prices.
Looking at what else might line up in the Festival opener, it seems that this is the Festival target for the Betfair Hurdle winner Ballyandy. Nigel Twiston-Davies had been weighing up a possible tilt at the Neptune (which he won with The New One) but given the way he travelled and quickened away at Newbury, his trainer believes this will be the more suitable race. Personally, I thought he might go down the Neptune route as he didn’t seem to do anything too quickly on his first few starts over hurdles and he was outpaced coming down the hill before staying on up the hill. I can see him running a similar race in the Supreme and perhaps running into a place up the hill.
In terms of the market, the one with a sea of blue on the oddschecker board beside him is Neon Wolf who is now as short as 4/1 in some places for the Supreme. This might be due to the forecast of potential soft ground on the first day of the meeting but there is no doubt that Elgin did the form little harm at Kempton a couple of weeks ago. His trainer Harry Fry has said that he will leave the horse in both the Supreme and the Neptune and has also mentioned potentially missing the Festival, but with the rain forecast it is hard to see him not lining up and he certainly has plenty of ability.
Neptune
Trainer Ben Pauling has a nice bunch of novice hurdlers in the yard and he looks likely to be represented in this race by Warwick winner Willoughby Court. Pauling still has the option of running the six-year-old in the Albert Bartlett but is a little concerned that could be a tough test for a horse with such little experience. He was very impressive at Warwick last time and the form has been franked with Gayebury winning since and another of the beaten horses Peregrine Run is a leading fancy for the Coral Cup at the Festival. I suspect he might come up short at the Festival as the Neptune looks a hot race but he likes every inch a chaser in the making.
Last week also saw the return of another smart inmate from the Pauling stable in the shape of Le Breuil who ran out a ready winner at Newbury on Friday. Not seen since winning a novice hurdle at Sedgefield in the autumn, he found plenty in the closing stages to see off the well-supported Benatar by nine lengths. A feature of the five-year-old’s performances to date have been how quick he jumps and whilst Cheltenham is likely to come too soon, he looks likely to pick up a nice prize before the end of the season, perhaps at Aintree or Punchestown.
Triumph
Defi Du Seuil is a warm order for the opening race on Friday but I can’t help but think that given how well he has handled soft ground this season, whether he will be able to reproduce the same sort of form on a sounder surface. If the ground did come up on the quicker side then I think the race has a wide open look to it and I certainly wouldn’t be too keen to take 7/4 about the market leader.
Nicky Henderson looks likely to have a few in the race, led by Charli Parcs, who as I reported last week, has come out of his run at Kempton really well. His work has been good since the fall and given how highly Henderson spoke of him before that run, I think he can still be a force in the Triumph. He is also likely to be joined by Soldier in Action who jumped a lot better when getting off the mark at the second attempt over hurdles at Doncaster last time. Rated 105 on the flat, he certainly has the potential to make up into a smart hurdler, but he might just come up short on experience this time around.
In truth, I think this could be a race in which we get a big-priced winner and it is therefore interesting that connections have indicated that Dandy Mag is likely to take his chance. The half-brother to Vroum Vroum Mag had no trouble getting off the mark at Gowran last month but I think the general 25/1 price is a fair reflection of his chances.
Novice Chasers
Arkle
There was some bad news for us over the weekend as Kim Bailey confirmed that Charbel will take his chance in the Arkle rather than the JLT on Thursday. Bailey had previously said that he was keen to avoid Altior but is worried that the six-year-old hasn’t been beyond two miles and is not keen to experiment at the Festival. It is a disappointing turn of events for us as he was as short as 10/1 for the JLT in a race which I thought he had a leading chance. He has already come up short against Altior on more than one occasion and I find it hard to see him reversing the form with that rival.
It also seems that Cloudy Dream is also going to line up in the Arkle as Malcolm Jefferson confirmed he is likely to have three runners on the first day of the Festival. That seems to rule out a potential crack at the Grand Annual but at least we have the NRNB concession to fall back on with this bet.
Willie Mullins has won the last two renewals of the race and although leading hope Min will not be taking part, the yard are likely to be represented by Royal Caviar who schooled well alongside Djakadam at Leopardstown on Sunday. He seemed none the worse for his fall at the same venue at the end of January and could have an outside chance of a place in a race where there isn’t much depth outside the market leader.
JLT
All eyes were on the ante-post favourite for the JLT Yorkhill as the seven-year-old schooled at Leopardstown alongside Arbre De Vie and Blazer. Ruby Walsh was at pains to settle the gelding behind his stablemates but he hit the first fence pretty hard before taking off a mile before the second fence. He did settle down after that and jumped neatly before cantering for a couple of furlongs to the winning post. There is no doubt that he has plenty of natural ability but there are still question marks about his jumping so he looks a favourite that could be worth taking on. His trainer Willie Mullins is likely to give the seven-year-old another schooling session prior to the Festival to get him right but I think he will be one of the favourites that punters try to take on at the Festival.
Meanwhile Noel Meade confirmed on Sunday that his leading Festival hope Disko was in good order. It seems that connections are leaning towards the JLT ahead of the RSA and Meade said he ‘couldn’t be happier’ with the six-year-old. He also reported that leading National Hunt Chase hope A Genie In Abottle was also in rude health ahead of his crack at the opening day of the Festival.
RSA
Coney Island was ruled out of the Festival last week and also likely to miss the race is Bellshill who fell in a schooling session at Leopardstown on Sunday. Normally when that happens, Willie Mullins gets the jockey to jump back on and pop over a couple of fences but he said that the gelding was a little stiff afterwards so they decided not to take any chances. Following this latest setback, you would have to say he is less likely than ever to head to Cheltenham and if all is well with the seven-year-old, he could come over for Aintree or wait for Punchestown.
One who will be lining up in the RSA is Our Kaempfer who also has the option of the Ultima Handicap Chase on the opening day of the meeting. However, following his victory at Kempton last month, his trainer doesn’t believe he is sufficiently well-handicapped so is likely to go down the novice route instead. His jumping was much better at Kempton last time but he was third on his only start in a Graded chase earlier in the season and whilst the step up to 3m seems to have brought about improvement, I still think he has a bit to find with the market principals in this race.
I mentioned earlier how people had been keen to take on Melon on the preview evening circuit and another who people have been keen to oppose is Might Bite. The eight-year-old took a crashing fall when much the best in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton over Christmas and we didn’t learn a great deal when he ran out a wide-margin winner at Doncaster last time. He is as short as 2/1 in places for the RSA which does look short for a horse who has had jumping issues in the past and I can see why people are keen to take him on.
He could be joined in the race by stablemate Whisper who has enjoyed something of a resurgence this term, winning his last two starts over the larger obstacles. His stamina has proved the difference on both of those occasions and although both those victories came over 2m5f, I see no reason why he won’t relish the step up to 3m. My main concern would be that the two horses he has beaten, Baron Alco and Clan Des Obeaux are hardly leading novices, so perhaps the form isn’t that strong.
With rain forecast for the next week or so, it seems more likely that American could take his chance following his victory at Warwick in January. The seven-year-old has looked a natural over fences so far but he isn’t the easiest to keep sound and his trainer Harry Fry has indicated he would only run if there was soft in the going description. The way he jumped and travelled at Warwick seem to suggest that he would be a leading contender for the RSA if he lined up on the day but the conditions would need to be right for him.
Misc Races
Cross-Country
Enda Bolger, who is widely-regarded as the leading trainer in this sphere is likely to be triple handed in the Festival race as he saddles Cantlow, Auvergnat and Colour Squadron. The first named of those is currently the market leader despite suffering defeat at Cheltenham on Trials Day. However it is worth bearing in mind that he was conceding over a stone to the French challenger Urgent De Gregaine on that occasion but come the Festival, the pair will be racing off level weights. Auvergnat was still travelling well when unseating six fences from home in that race and has since gone on to win at Punchestown.
There is another JP McManus name to throw into the mix in the shape of Cause Of Causes who has been the subject of market support in recent days. Now around a 6/1 shot for the race, the nine-year-old has won at the last two Festivals but he was far from fluent over the cross-country fences at Cheltenham in January. I am sure he has had plenty of practice in the interim but I would have liked to see a bit more in January to be taking 6/1.
However, I think that there could be a bit of value in this market in the shape of Usuel Smurfer who is a general 16/1 shot for the Cross-Country. The nine-year-old was a smart chaser for Shark Hanlon and defied an absence of over a year to finish a close second to On His Own in a point-to-point in January. He had his first start in the Cross-Country sphere at Punchestown at the beginning of February and he ran a fine race to finish second to Auvergnat, beaten just over a length at the line. He was conceding 7lb to the winner that day before you take the winner’s rider into account and with that cross-country experience under his belt I think he can run well at the Festival. He will get a pull in the weights with Auvergnat at Cheltenham and having run so well over the cross-country fences at the first attempt last time, I think he has an each-way chance.
Bumper
The bumper isn’t the easiest race to get a handle on as a lot of the time, the form lines tend not to overlap. Willie Mullins has already had one leading hope ruled out in the shape of Getabird but he could have an able deputy in Carter McKay who has made no mistake on his first two bumper starts. He saw off a smart performer in West Coast Time at Naas last time but the time of that race was slow and I think his dominance may have been exaggerated by the way the race was run. It is also worth noting that whilst Willie Mullins has a good record in the race, it is often not the most fancied who fares best, so you won’t see me taking 3/1.
On this side of the Irish Sea, the form of the Newbury bumper a couple of weeks ago in which Daphne Du Clos got the better of Western Ryder is probably about the best form on offer. However, Nicky Henderson’s filly has been ruled out of the Festival with a slight problem
The runner-up Western Ryder won a valuable bumper at Ascot in December and lost little in defeat behind Daphne Du Clos last time. The pace was steady last time which probably didn’t suit Warren Greatrex’s five-year-old and the stronger pace and the stiff finish at Cheltenham may play more to his strengths. He gets a 6lb pull with Nicky Henderson’s filly in the Festival bumper so may be able to close the gap on that rival.
One of the more interesting entries in the race is David Pipe’s Delirant who has yet to run in Britain but already has two bumper wins to his name in France. The latest of those saw him win a Grade 1 bumper at Saint-Cloud in good style, although that was over 1m4f. He has had a number of entries in recent weeks without taking any up and in a recent stable tour, David Pipe said he wasn’t sure if he would go to the Festival. His form is hard to weigh up but he is clearly interesting, in receipt of the four-year-old allowance.
I do however prefer the chances of Jessica Harrington’s Someday who overcame a lengthy absence to win a bumper at Leopardstown last month. The five-year-old might have won with a bit more in hand but for jinking at the big screen in the closing stages and although he isn’t flashy, I think he can take a good step forward from that run. He was a close second to Cilaos Emery at last season’s Punchestown Festival and given how that horse has performed subsequently, he clearly has plenty of ability. Horse who began their careers in Ireland have taken all but two of the last sixteen renewals of this race and second season bumper horses have won four of the last five renewals. Jessica Harrington is no stranger to success in this race having won it with Cork All Star in 2007 and if he takes his chance, I think he could run a big race.
Handicaps
Since the weights have come out, I have had a look through all of the handicaps and whilst I won’t be analysing each of the races, there are a number of horses who stood out to me in different races which I have detailed below.
Ultima
In the first handicap of the meeting, the first one which caught the eye was The Druids Nephew who won this race two years ago and runs here off a similar mark this time around. He ran a couple of good races last term, most notably in the Grimthorpe Chase behind The Last Samuri and the bet365 Gold at Sandown in April but has been given some slack by the handicapper since then. I wouldn’t be too concerned by his modest showing at Ascot in December as he tends to need his first run of the season. His trainer has already proved himself to be a fine target trainer and he was pretty bullish when speaking about this horse at a recent media day. “He won the race off 146 two years ago and is back off 146. We think he’s every bit as good, if not better, and he’s in great form,” he said. He clearly has a chance on his old form and I think he is definitely one to keep on side.
Another who I thought was interesting at the weights was Martello Tower although it is worth noting that he has a few entries and he is far from certain to take this engagement up. Former Festival winners have a good record in this race as do novices and he has been tried pretty highly so far over the larger obstacles. He was fourth in Grade 1 company over Christmas behind the likes of Our Duke, Coney Island and Disko and I think a mark of 144 is workable. It is worth highlighting that is some 6lb below his hurdles mark and with the rain forecast in the next week, he could get the safe ground that he is after. He could well head elsewhere but I think he has a chance at the weights and is worth a small each-way bet with the NRNB concession.
Coral Cup
The Coral Cup is one of the most competitive races of the week but one man with a better record than most is Gordon Elliott who has won two of the last six renewals. He has a number of potential candidates for this race but in Automated, he looks to have a very good chance. The six-year-old won a valuable handicap at Navan in December for which he went up 10lb and he has been given an extra few pounds by the British handicapper. However, there are a number of patterns going in his favour, nine of the last 14 winners had won their previous start, 10 of the last 11 winners came from the first seven in the market and none of the last 12 winners had run in the last 31 days. He has clearly been laid out for this race following his Navan success and I think he has a leading chance for a yard who have already had a number of high-profile handicap successes this term.
Another Gordon Elliott horse who I thought was interesting if running in any of the handicaps at the meeting is Brelade, who has entries in the Coral Cup, County and Martin Pipe as well as the Neptune. The five-year-old was second in Grade 1 company at Leopardstown on Boxing Day and was also placed in Grade 1 company in the Deloitte last time. On both of those occasions he wasn’t beaten too far and his handicap mark looks fair enough on what he has done so far. He could miss the Festival entirely but I think he is worth sticking in your tracker and backing if he does take his chance in one of the handicaps.
Brown Advisory Plate
In the Plate, there is no doubt that David Pipe and Venetia Williams are the trainers to follow having won six of the last ten winners between them. Both have a number of entries in at the moment so final declarations could be crucial but there are a couple who deserve a mention.
In the Pipe team, I think that Starchitect could be the most interesting having won one of his first three starts over the larger obstacles. His jumping has improved with each of his three runs to date and having run behind the likes of A Hare Breath and Baron Alco on his first two starts, he was far from disgraced. He had plenty in hand at Ayr last time but he has been running on soft ground all winter and his hurdles form suggests that he will improve for a sounder surface. The blinkers that he has worn over hurdles and on the flat have also been absent of late and most importantly, his chase mark is currently 7lb lower than his hurdles mark. He won over 2m5f over hurdles in May so I think he is worth trying at this trip and he looks the most likely of the Pipe entries. He is also towards the head of the market for the Grand Annual for which he would be interesting for the same reason, but I think he is worth an each-way bet here with the NRNB concession.
I mentioned earlier that Gordon Elliott was a man worth following in handicaps and it appears the vibes about Diamond King in this race are pretty strong. He has been highly touted by both Elliott and Davy Russell at recent preview evenings and having won the Coral Cup at last year’s Festival, it is easy to see why he has attracted interest in the market.
One final one to mention is Colin Tizzard’s Sizing Codelco whose trainer believes has a leading chance in this contest. The eight-year-old ran well behind Top Notch in a Graduation Chase at Ascot in December and his trainer believes he just failed to stay the trip over 3m 2f last time. He has been dropped a couple of pounds for that run but he shaped well for a long way and if it was the trip that beat him, he would have to come into the mix back in trip.
Bets
THE DRUIDS NEPHEW (Ultima) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (bet365) (4 places)
As I mentioned earlier, I think in terms of the handicap mark on his old form I think he has a leading chance in the Ultima. His trainer is a fine target trainer and I think he has a good each-way chance in the opening handicap of the Festival.
MARTELLO TOWER (Ultima) – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 NRNB (Skybet) (4 places)
This one is a little bit more speculative in that I haven’t heard his trainer mention this as a target but he was given an entry and I think following the weights being published, his connections could be tempted. He is potentially well-handicapped on his hurdles form and with the chance of rain in the next week, I think he is worth a small bet at around the 20/1 mark.
AUTOMATED (Coral Cup) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (bet365) (4 places)
Gordon Elliott has the potential to have his best Festival yet and I think this is likely to be one of his leading hopes for the Coral Cup on Wednesday. Despite his rise in the weights for his win at Navan before Christmas, he could still have a bit in hand on the handicapper and I think he has been laid out for this race.
USUEL SMURFER (Cross Country) – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 NRNB (SkyBet)
Alan Fleming’s nine-year-old made a fine start to his cross country career when second to Auvergnat at Punchestown and the conditions of the Cheltenham race mean that he gets a pull in the weights with that rival. A pretty smart handicap chaser in the not too distant past, he looked a natural over the cross-country fences and in the absence of a real stand out in this year’s renewal, I think he could run well at a big price.
SOMEDAY (Bumper) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (Ladbrokes, Coral)
Much like the Cross Country race, there doesn’t look to be a real standout performer in the bumper division and for all the favourite has been impressive on his first two starts, I think he is short enough. Jessica Harrington has won the race in the past and I don’t think we have seen the best of Someday yet, who won at Leopardstown last time. There were a few fancied horses in that race and having chased home another smart performer in Cilaos Emery last Spring, I think he can take a big step forward from his reappearance and run well.
STARCHITECT (Brown Advisory Plate) – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 NRNB (bet365) (4 places)
The final advised bet is David Pipe’s novice in the Brown Advisory Plate who has the potential to leave his current chase form behind now stepping into handicap company. He does have the option of also running in the Grand Annual but the Pipe yard have a good record in this race and this well-handicapped six-year-old looks worth an each-way bet at the prices.
Bluemal's was in Yesterday's thread.
bluemal
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Posted 7 March 2017 7:29pm · Report post
Catterick 4.20 Houndscourt @ 4/1 bet365 win thanks
Houndscourt....from Joanne Foster yard the 10yo been a winner of two hurdle races, three chases and a point-to-point from 2m 4f to 3m on good to soft and soft ground, He was looking for two wins in a row 30 days ago at Sedgefield 3m 3f soft in handicap hurdle when beaten 8 lengths,
The yard bring him back to previous winning distance at Wetherby and its sees Henry Brooke keeping the ride and goes off a 1lb less to 85 rating
3.30 Southwell
SHOWBOATING @ 10/1 Stan James
Course and distance record reads 31232 on his last run over CD was beaten less than 2l in a class 3 off a 2lb higher mark. Poor run last time but that was at Newcastle and was too bad to be true. Down to a class 4 and back at his favourite track. Tudhope takes the ride today and is 20% for the trainer and +£13.63 LSP. Should go well at a double figure price.
Alan Fleming aiming Borderline Chatho and Bakmaj at Cheltenham Bumper
Sunday 5 February 2017
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Trainer Alan Fleming could fire a twin assault at this year's Champion Bumper with both Borderline Chatho and Bakmaj in line for the Cheltenham Festival prize.
Having finished runner-up on his racecourse debut at Leopardstown over the festive period for Peter Fahey, Bakmaj was snapped up by leading owner Barry Connell and provided an immediate return on that investment with an impressive success on his debut for Fleming back at Leopardstown last month.
Borderline Chatho, who finished third to top-class bumper horse Bacardys last season, made a winning return from over a year off at Naas and Fleming holds both in high regard.
He said: "Borderline (Chatho)was very impressive the other day and has come out of the race well.
"He'd been off the track for a while, but he hasn't really had an issue. He ran in Leopardstown as a four-year-old and ran very well considering the way the race was run didn't suit him. We were then planning to bring him back around March time, but he picked up a little cold and by the time he came right the ground had gone too fast so we let him out for the summer.
"We hoped to have him ready for the autumn, but the horses weren't right at the time and we've just had to bide our time.
"We'll make a plan for him in the next week to 10 days, but I've no doubt he'll improve from Naas and Cheltenham is something we'd be looking at.
"He has all the ability in the world and having the year off might have been a blessing in disguise as you wouldn't believe how much he's grown."
Of Bakmaj, the Curragh-based trainer added: "He was bought specifically with the Champion Bumper in mind, so that's the plan for him.
"He had a very good first run for Peter Fahey, Barry was impressed and decided to buy him.
"I'm glad he did as he looks a very nice horse and we're looking forward to Cheltenham with him.
"It would be very exciting to have the two of them there. Fingers crossed we can keep them both safe and sound."
Fleming confirmed that Connell's retained rider Denis O'Regan will have the choice if both do line up at Prestbury Park in March.
Amateur rider Stephen Clements, who has steered both to victory, is in line to partner whichever horse O'Regan passes over.
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