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Jimmy2shoes reacted to Valiant Thor in Naps Competition - Friday Oct 6th
5.45 Chelmsford MERKAVA @ 7/4 PP & Coral
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Jimmy2shoes reacted to robertob in Naps Competition - Sunday Oct 1st
3.05: Chantilly - 2017 Arc De Triomphe
"You are prone to bad luck at Chantilly; often the best horse gets beaten there" - John Gosden
Correct. John Gosden, trainer of wonder filly Enable is rightly concerned if it comes to external influences in today's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
The dual Oaks and King George champ is the red hot betting favourite for quite some time. Rightly so. There is little more she needs to do to prove her class. She IS all class.
However a long season, a big field of top class contenders, most of them the opposite sex, tough ground and a course that can throw up strange results - there is a lot to overcome today....
.... and a lot to like about Enable!
On the positive side of things, Enable could have not get a better draw allotted in the lottery that can kill chances of any horse before the race is even run. She can start from stall 2 - it gives her flamboyant star jockey Frankie Dettori every chance to make a decision whereas other rivals have to take what's left over.
Enable is an uncomplicated filly, she has no problem to race prominently. I'm sure Dettori will settle her close enough to the pace with every chance to get the clearest of runs. The track will be more of an issue for anyone behind her: no excuses.
So, if she is in the form she presented herself all year she'll win. Plain and simple. Fillies and three year old fillies in particular have a superb record in the Arc.
But what if a season that started in a Conditions Stake at Newbury back in April has taken a toll? You couldn't begrudge Enable to lose some percentage of her superb form that saw the three year old land spectacular victories throughout the summer.
Well - Autumn, soft ground and Chantilly can do strange things to horses. So at prices I have to take on Enable. As much as I would love the story of her winning the race, as much I feel ENABLEd to say: this is one too many for her this year.
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I like three individuals at much bigger odds: the German raider Dschingis Secret, the recent Leger hero Capri and the French Cloth Of Stars .
Dschingis Secret: The German horse has no issues on the soft ground and usually does his best at the back end of his races. The way he finds another gear in the closing stages, as seen in the Prix Foy and Großer Preis von Berlin, is a trait not too many horses posses.
The way he races does not look sexy. He can get sweaty, be a bit keen but also can appear to be off the bridle earlier than a high class individual should be. But that doesn't matter. The apparent ease - once hitting top gear - he puts away classy contenders suggest that this lad is hitting top form when it matters most.
The draw isn't ideal, ten is as wide as you want to be and he will need a bit of luck. But hey, this is horse racing. You'll always need a bit of " luck" on the big day. 16's is a serious price for a serious horse.
Capri: The drop in trip won't be an issue. He's an Irish Derby winner with form over shorter too. He travells strongly through his races and simply has an exceptional attitude to keep on going, as seen at Doncaster a fortnight ago. Soft ground doesn't bother him, in fact the true stamina test expected will rather suit him today.
He's here's soon enough with little time to recover plus faces the difficult task to break from stall 15. However that is reflected in the price, and I feel taken into account overly negative. Yes, he is not the likeliest winner of the race, but surely a dual Classic winner has a slightly better than 5% chance with conditions likely to suit him?!
Cloth Of Stars: It's been eight years since Sea The Stars became a legend in this very race. His son Cloth Of Stars is one who has the tools to emulate his almighty daddy. He's got a good draw, a fair prep run under the belt off a four months long break when runner-up in the Foy behind Dschingis Secret and was unbeaten in 2017 before that.
Stamina is a question mark. He is yet to win over 1m 4f. On the plus side he loves the ground and deserves another crack at this distance after only two tries and with some improvement still possible.
Some words on the rest of field: Don't count out Ulysses, either. He will love the track, he's been a revelation this season and acts on softish ground. That says ground and trip in combination should not play to his strengths, I feel.
There is loads of money coming for Order Of St. George. He's a sexy contender, I admit. He looked SO good in the Irish Ledger. Ground and trip is fine. A stayer with a turn of foot, Arc 3rd twelve months ago. Yeah, he's a serious chance, Ballydoyle's best, no doubt.
I say that because it's only the 1st October and Winter is not coming - not today. The superstar filly has done it all this season, but this is a step too far. Sure, as a daughter of Galileo all is seemingly possible - but a long year, tough ground, a trip as far as she's never gone before - too much.
My point is....
..... this is a wide open Arc! Much more open than the betting suggests. We have a star filly in Enable who is likely to take plenty of beating if all goes right for her. But this is the Arc, it's autumn, it's Chantilly, it's tough ground, it's a high class field.... there is plenty of room for things to pan out in a completely different way. Let's hope it goes my way.
For the sake of the competition I nominate my best chance in the race:
Dschingis Secret @ 16/1 Bet365
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Jimmy2shoes got a reaction from Tipsterix in Naps Competition - Sunday Oct 1st
16:35 Chantilly - Battaash 1pt Win Bet @ 10/3 with Bet365 & BetVic + Corals
Enjoy ya Sunday
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Jimmy2shoes got a reaction from Thewadfather in Naps Competition - Sunday Oct 1st
16:35 Chantilly - Battaash 1pt Win Bet @ 10/3 with Bet365 & BetVic + Corals
Enjoy ya Sunday
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Jimmy2shoes got a reaction from Rainbow in Latest Tables - September
Really Well done Rainbow some stunning arrows, hard luck Blue but still a cracking tally
Big Thanks again to the Captain of the scores - BH
Just for the record G' He is actually a She
''despite a R4 deduction he just won enough to overhaul long time leader Bluemal''
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Jimmy2shoes got a reaction from Thewadfather in Naps Competition - Saturday Sept 30th
15:15 Haydock - Sainted 1pt Win Bet @ SP
Bookmakers not being very generous with odds in this race
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Jimmy2shoes reacted to BillyHills in Racing Chat - Saturday 30th Sept
My ratings for Cambridgeshire
Linguistic EW 25/1 Betfair
Master The World EW 22/1 Paddy Power
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Jimmy2shoes got a reaction from BillyHills in Racing Chat - Friday Sept 29th
You have been banging in some nice winners of late G' and all with fantastic write up's So it's a shame we have a fancy in the same race.
I really like Ger Lyons only runner on this card and was quite taken with her attitude when she made her debut on home turf, he's never been the type of trainer to travel unless he feels he has a dam good chance of winning, his 2yr old filly has some impressive bloodlines and i feel Won a shade cheeky last time out, she finished strong so the finish here at HQ should suit her and i give her a major chance.
Oisin Murphy rides HQ well and he gets the leg up for the first time, but it does look like Ger has very much handpicked Osian and he's sure to have sat on her back at Glenburnie
3pm Newmarket - Lightening Quick
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Jimmy2shoes reacted to Valiant Thor in Book Review - Harry Findlay
I remember Terry Ramsden, used to fly into a meeting in a helicopter with big wads of cash just for 1 bet
It was the japanese stock market what killed him off when it crashed, not the bookies
You wont get many like Harry or Terry today, try to put £50 on and the books sh*t themselves.
People should be writing books on how the betting industry is a fraud and anyone who has the audacity to actualy take money of them are banned or restricted, this seems to be conveniantly brushed under the carpet by the mainstream media, while tales of fearless bookies taking 100k shop bets from ' a North London punter ' were put out by Graham Sharpe et al on a regular basis.
this was on a 4/1 shot (would £6 extra realy have broke the bank of a multi million £ bookmaker )
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Jimmy2shoes got a reaction from corky in Naps Competition - Wednesday 27th Sept
12:58 Perry Barr - Trap 2
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh gee's a fookin WINNER
17:05 Perth - Ballypoint 1pt Win Bet @ 9/4 with Hills
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Jimmy2shoes got a reaction from corky in Racing Chat - Monday Sep 24th
Hamilton Off, Waterlogging, maybe it's just the track again.
All it's done Today ''Sunday'' was rain, even all my rear garden path is flooded and I've never seen that in all the time I've been in this house, moved in 2001
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Jimmy2shoes got a reaction from BillyHills in KO Cup Final - Saturday 2pm Deadline
Well Done Striker, F/C Fecked again
Chin Up G' You'l be around another day
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Jimmy2shoes got a reaction from Striker in KO Cup Final - Saturday 2pm Deadline
Well Done Striker, F/C Fecked again
Chin Up G' You'l be around another day
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Jimmy2shoes got a reaction from Thewadfather in Naps Competiton - Sunday Sept 24th
16:50 Brighton - Camakasi 1pt Win @ SP
Thanks
Enjoy Ya Sunday
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Jimmy2shoes reacted to richard-westwood in Racing Chat Saturday 23rd September 2017
1st and 3rd...nice doing business .130 pts returned ....90 pts profit on the day
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Jimmy2shoes reacted to Striker in KO Cup Final - Saturday 2pm Deadline
Good luck Graham
2.00 Newmarket-First Nation...win @ 4-1 Bet Victor
2.25 Catterick-Dutch Academy...win @ 4-1 Skybet
3.35 Catterick-Bahuta Acha...each way @ 9-1 William Hill
Reserve
2.15 Newbury-Architecture...each way @ 12-1 Paddy Power
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Jimmy2shoes got a reaction from Kenji in Naps Competition - Friday Sept 22nd
You Owe that Jockey a Large drink
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Jimmy2shoes reacted to BillyHills in KO Cup Final - Saturday 2pm Deadline
Can i have a bet on Striker please
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Jimmy2shoes got a reaction from Striker in KO Cup Final - Saturday 2pm Deadline
Striker has been in good form but our Big Russian speaking leader has been surfing a big wave & thus he heads the market in this 2 man chase for Gold, BH also has a very good strike rate in this KO Comp.
Striker 5/4
BH 1/3
Walk in Jockeys. . . . . . . . . . Yaaaaaaaa!
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Jimmy2shoes got a reaction from BillyHills in KO Cup Final - Saturday 2pm Deadline
Striker has been in good form but our Big Russian speaking leader has been surfing a big wave & thus he heads the market in this 2 man chase for Gold, BH also has a very good strike rate in this KO Comp.
Striker 5/4
BH 1/3
Walk in Jockeys. . . . . . . . . . Yaaaaaaaa!
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Jimmy2shoes reacted to Kenji in Naps Competition - Friday Sept 22nd
4:45 Newton Abbot - Azure Fly - 3/1 WH
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Jimmy2shoes got a reaction from Thewadfather in Naps Competition - Friday Sept 22nd
Ayr is OFF again folks
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Jimmy2shoes reacted to CarlosMc in Naps Competition - Thurs Sept 21st
5.45: Chelmsford: Encrypted e/w @ 6.5 11/2 Bet365
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Jimmy2shoes got a reaction from Striker in Racing Chat - Thursday Sept 21st
Welcome to my Summer
The Big Supermarkets needn't have bothered this year with BBQ's and Suntan lotion, it wasn't required.