ultravires
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Posts posted by ultravires
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Re: Serie A > September 22-23 I rather wish I hadn't watched that football match tbh. I thought I'd seen the last of Toni winning tens of fouls per match. JoJo had a poor match, he looked way too gassed up after his recent hype. Fiorentina will get trashed by Juventus I think. I think I might get on Napoli -0.25 myself. It's a tricky match on paper, but they are flying right now.
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Re: Serie A > September 22-23 Pulling on this now as I don't see it hanging around as time goes on. As stated, this match is behind closed doors which is a knock for Cagliari. It isn't exactly nice for either side though so I am now entirely sure how to weight that factor. On a strictly XI vs. XI basis this is an interesting match. Cagliari have had a recent hold over Roma as a bogey team. Conti in particular tends to play well against Roma. The home side don't share much in terms of characteristics with Roma. They are hard-working and relatively cautious. They miss their main creative player for this match as Cossu doesn't seem to be fit. Nainggolan, Conti and Ekdal are a really solid trio who are pretty tough customers. They aren't mugs with the ball either. I think they can get at the Roma trio in this one. Pjanic in particular has a tendency to drift out of matches. Tachtsidis and Florenzi are talented youngsters, but I think they'll find it hard to lead this team in this match. Cagliari don't have an electric front line but they will certainly be able to cause Roma problems. Pinilla, Ribeiro and Sau are all decent outlets up there. The fact there will be 3 players in and around the Roma defence is enough to cause problems. Lopez, Lamela and Destro are far more talented, but are all inexperienced young players. They have never played together, and they are all direct players so they may all be trying to run the same patterns. Roma will cause problems in this for sure, but this XI should not be 2.2 away to an organised Cagliari team. I would not like to venture scoreline guesses, but I'll take the home side not to lose this. 2-2 perhaps. Cagliari +0.5 - 1.725 - 3 points - Bet365
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Re: Serie A > September 22-23 It seems as though they are confirmed as missing the match. An XI like this should be expected: Stek, Piris, Burdisso, Castan, Balzaretti; Pjanic, Tachtsidis, Florenzi; Lopez, Destro, Lamela That is an inexperienced team, and one that is not accustomed to playing together. It's still exciting and talented, but I think they will get caught out.
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Re: Serie A > September 22-23 There could be something in opposing Roma this weekend. News is emanating that Osvaldo and Totti are both doubts for the match due to training knocks. Totti's does not seem as bad but, given his age, I suppose is less likely to be risked. Without them Roma would have to play Lamela-Destro-Lopez. They all possess talent, but they are all young and inexperienced. Added to a midfield of Tachtsidis, Florenzi and Pjanic, the team starts to look a little flimsy. If that news is confirmed, then 2.2 is too short away to Cagliari - fans or no fans.
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Re: Serie A > September 22-23 Parma - Fiorentina A slight break in the odds here which is leading me to go in. I don't fancy taking Fiorentina on the straight win, but with full draw cover above evens, I am backing them. Jovetic is by far the biggest difference between the two teams. Fiorentina are slightly better in every area of the pitch, but only Jovetic puts them decidedly better. It is dangerous to rely solely on one player though, so that is why the draw cover is essential for me. Parma are very workmanlike with decent players all over the pitch. I struggle to see where a dangerous attacking threat will come from though. Gobbi and Rosi are distinctly average going backwards, let alone forwards. However, Fiorentina's full-backs are not particularly dangerous going forward either, so we'll call that equal. Fiorentina's CM is markedly better in every respect, though it would be nice to see a bit of muscle in there. Aquilani is still unavailable so Fernandez and Romulo will fight to join Valero and Pizzaro. It's a nice trio on the ball, and hopefully they should cope with Parma's threat off the ball. Ljaijic is a decent partner up front, but I'd prefer to see Toni as he offers a different threat. This should be a close match, but I am happy to take full cover and hope Jovetic makes the difference once more. Fiorentina (0) - 2.100 - 5 points - Bet365 I can't say that much else is grabbing me right now.
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Re: Europa League > September 20 I am very interested to watch Lazio tonight. They have been dreadful in their recent European campaigns, but there is a sense of optimism this time out. Though the odds on Tottenham are a bit short, I can't bring myself to back Lazio. I can almost see the familiar sight of a decent EPL side physically steamrolling a Serie A side. Players like Candreva, Gonzalez and Mauri could very possibly get swamped if Tottenham set the right tempo. Hernanes is the classiest player on that pitch, but if those around him fold, then he will get swamped as well. Their back 4 cannot expect to hold tight for 90 minutes. The extent of the Spurs rotation will be key. As I understand, they are going to take this competition reasonably seriously. I hope I am being pessimistic, but I just can't feel a Lazio result here tonight. It just doesn't happen!
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Re: Europa League > September 20 I am all over Anzhi DNB tonight as well. A lot of good words already written so I'll keep it short. I am not entirely sure whether Di Natale will get rested or not. Having put him in the squad, and expecting a tough match, I would Guidolin would play him. However, the precedent is almost certainly with resting him in the EL. Udinese are also set to play Milan at the weekend, which is still a big match despite their state at the moment. I am happy to play the DNB based on Di Natale starting the match anyway. If he doesn't play and we see Barretto and Fabbrini up front then I will go in deeper on Anzhi. Udinese would have almost no chance of winning with those two IMO. They have a decent enough team to not get smashed by Anzhi, but going forward they will have serious problems even with Di Natale on the pitch. He is a finisher, and cannot make up for the lack of class in midfield. The atmosphere at the club is one on a rapid decline. I can't imagine many fans turning up, and it will be a rough night all-round. I have never watched Anzhi, but am familiar with some of their players. This bet is all about fading Udinese anyway. Anzhi DNB - 1.775 - 6 points - Bet365 IF Di Natale does not start I will add a little more to the DNB, and also take Anzhi win if I have not been shafted by the odds.
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Re: Champions League > September 19th At least one team is going to represent Serie A this season.
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Re: Serie A > September 22-23 Right now, I am interested in: Genoa+1 - for much the same reasoning as Dylan has expressed. Lazio are supposedly fully-focussed on Tottenham, and while Thursday to Sunday should not be a big problem at this stage, it is still a benefit for Genoa. I am a little concerned by both Borriello and Immobile playing as they tick many of the same boxes. I have been far from on point with predicting odds movement, but I don't imagine Lazio will get much shorter than they are at present. Fiorentina (0) is also on my radar. I haven't watched Parma this season so I am cautious to read too much into my impression of them, but they seem severely lacking. They are very much a 'meh' kind of team. Biabiany and Amauri are big players for them, and if they do miss this clash then I can imagine them struggling once more. I am still treating Fiorentina with caution, but I think I have them quite well placed in my mind. Parma are a team that they should control for the most part. I can't imagine that I will ever back them without JoJo, but while he is playing as well as he is, they will peak my interest. I'd actually prefer to see Toni lumbering away up front as he is a different threat - Ljajic is essentially a very poor man's JoJo. I'd also kind of like to Migliaccio in the CM doing the dirty work. I want full draw cover in this because if JoJo doesn't turn up, then a win becomes that much harder for Fiorentina. Naps are tempting me, but I think I'll swerve them this time round. Catania can be a thorny side, and with the EL match on Thursday, I think I am deterred. Bologna and Atalanta are too short for me I think - though I don't rate either of their opponents. If Roma shorten further then Cagliari may become a play. The match is behind closed doors so home 'advantage' will be largely negated. Even so, Cagliari have always been a thorn in Roma's side. Under 2.5 in Udinese-Milan is almost certainly a play in my mind. Any thoughts in particular before I go pulling triggers?
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Re: Champions League > September 19th The odds have actually gone the other way, and Chelsea have lengthened - so much for relying on patriotic betting. Although I am annoyed to have seen it at a better price, I do still believe in Juventus +0.25 - even at 1.825. The value is diminishing, but Juventus will match Chelsea tonight - I believe. The most important thing in my opinion is that Juve can pull Mata/Hazard back as much as possible through pressure on the ball. I say one of those two because I believe Ramires will spend more time in the CM area due to Juve's CM trio. The one major concern I have is the lack of great pace in Juve's back 3. Bonnucci sweeps, but he has been caught out on occasion, so I have concerns. Anyway, the ins and outs could be discussed all day. I'm taking Juventus on the positive line. Juventus +0.25 - 1.825 - 4 points - Bet365
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Re: Champions League > September 19th I don't think Isla will play tomorrow, he definitely won't start anyway. He had a severe injury and has yet to play a game. I don't think he would be risked in such a huge match. Lichsteiner is a very solid player anyway. The more I think about it, the more I like Juventus in this match. I think they have to assert some level of control and push Ramires, Hazard and Mata back as much as they can through high pressure off the ball. This is a good part of Juve's game, so it shouldn't be a problem. The odds are holding firm atm.
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Re: Champions League > September 19th I am thinking there may be some value in Juventus on Wednesday. I am hoping there is some further movement, but I'm certainly interested in the +0.25 market - ideally +0.5. Juve are at full-strength for this match like so: Buffon; Barzagli, Bonnucci, Chiellini; Lichsteiner, Vidal, Pirlo, Marchisio, Asamoah; Giovinvo, Vucinic Rather unusually for an Italian side (recently at least), they have the physical strength and pace to match EPL sides. Besides, Pirlo and Giovinco every player can more than hold his own in that respect. The 3-5-2 is flexible, and I am sure that we will see the full-backs helping out defensively for periods of the 90 minutes. Juve have been used to running matches with their CM, and while I think they will have success - I doubt it is possible to shut out Chelsea completely. The CM is the key area in this match I think. Lampard and Mikel are not the best movers out there, and Juve's trio are a well-oiled machine. Juve aren't the typical counter-attacking side so I think they will try to assert themselves as best they can without being reckless. Despite their great defensive record there are gaps to be found in the back 3 - mainly through being counter-attacked themselves. I can foresee them playing quite a tight and measured game in this one, and seeing how they get on. Gio/Vuci are not prolific scorers, and certainly not poachers, which is a concern. It doesn't seem like a match for Giovinco to shine, but he has far more magic than Matri, which is why he may well get the nod. Juve are an extremely solid team, physically and mentally, so I expect a very tough match for Chelsea. I'm happy to wait and hope I get the chance to back them as dark horses in this one.
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Re: Serie A > September 16
Nice to get two wins on the Milanese matches. I was starting to get a bit concerned in the Inter match as they were being very wasteful in possession. Cassano put the match to rest though. It was a really back and forth match, played at quite a pace, but lacking quality IMO. Unfortunate that Udinese let a two goal lead slip. They are really struggling at the moment it seems. I wasn't able to watch Roma this afternoon, but I would not suspect foul play. Roma have always been temperamental and that is only accentuated by Zeman.Atalanta +1 - 2.00 - 3 points - WIN Inter -0.25 - 1.975 - 5 points - WIN I too am taking Udinese (0) for 4 points. I don't have anything to add to the words of Dylan and Das Phantom. I am probably going to take Sampdoria (0) as well. -
Re: Champions League > September 18th Can anyone offer some analysis on Anderlecht please? I know nothing about them, but my gut says that there may be something there on the +1 (AH) line. I'll offer my opinion on Milan going into this match. They are in a very dark place right now. League form and CL results are perhaps not always related, but I think it is relevant to the state Milan are in at the moment. They have issues right through the club, but the focus point right now, is what we are seeing on the pitch. Milan are slow, lethargic and one-dimensional. The full-backs cannot offer enough to compensate the dull three man midfield and Boateng is not good enough to shoulder the creative burden. They have been seeing a lot of possession in their matches, but struggle to use it effectively. They also have a fairly average defence that is vulnerable to counter-attacks. There are a couple of personnel questions to be answered, mainly around Montolivo. He is a creative player who would help in the midfield. If Anderlecht have the capacity to counter-attack effectively then I will play them on the positive line. If their threat is going to be limited, then I would be more interested in the under 2.5 line. I would probably have a strong enough lack of faith in Milan to fade them anyway, but I would appreciate some insight into Anderlecht.
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Re: Serie A > September 16 I don't think there is a manager in world football who downplays expectations as much as Guidolin. He has said tomorrows match is a relegation dogfight. I hope he is more inspirational behind the scenes.
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Re: Serie A > September 16 Milan - Atalanta I am on the wrong end of a slight odds shift, but am still pulling the trigger on Atalanta. Allegri has confirmed both Ambrosini and De Jong will play in midfield for this match. I can only think this is to protect a defence that is still bedding down. When joined by Nocerino/Emmanuelson, that midfield is very bland. De Sciglio, Bonera, Acerbi, Antonini is not a great D though, so I guess Milan are going with safety. I'm not sure how Pazzini is doing having taken a knock in training, but I'd imagine he will play. El Sha or Bojan will join him with Boateng in the hole. It's ok, but certainly not earth shattering. Atalanta are a pretty organised team. They have not come out of the blocks in the same manner as last year, but it hasn't been disastrous. They miss Schellotto and Peluso. Brivio is a decent fill-in for the latter. Milan's CM is going to be Atalanta's biggest issue I think. Competing physically is going to be a challenge. I guess they will get the ball wide as quickly as they can to try and attack Milan's full-backs. Atalanta will very much sit back and counter in this game. They are familiar with that approach and with Milan's lack of pace at the back, they could see some good chances. It will be another test of whether Milan can break down a team that is sitting deep in front of them. On paper, I'd oppose them at 1.5 in these circumstances all day. Atalanta +1 - 2.00 - 3 points - Bet365 Torino - Inter I think this could be a pretty explosive match. Dylan has already offered an explanation that I agree with so I won't write too much. Torino are playing an open and attacking style of football this season. The 4-4-2 come 4-2-4 formation that they play could be their undoing here though. I don't doubt that they can score against Inter in this one, but you cannot leave chances for Cassano, Sneijder and Milito. The former two are smart players who have a great finisher playing in front of them. Guarin, Gargano and Cambiasso is a formidable midfield built for recovering the ball and moving it forward quickly. Together they a strong physically and could easily dominate Torino's two CM's. I'm not crazy about Inter's defence but I fancy them to have a firm enough grip on this match to outscore the hosts. Goals would be another play that I'd fancy. Given Inter's lack of defensive solidity I am taking some cover in this match. Inter -0.25 - 1.975 - 5 points - Bet365 I too am taking Udinese (0) for 4 points. I don't have anything to add to the words of Dylan and Das Phantom. I am probably going to take Sampdoria (0) as well.
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Re: Serie A > September 16 I am more or less on the same wavelength as you two this week. Udinese and Inter both appeal in some respect. I would definitely want the draw cover with Udinese though. I think what Dylan said about the break doing Udinese good is true. They would have been able to get their heads together over this time and can try to start with a clean slate. It's a bit annoying that Muriel and Di Natale have not yet been able to build a partnership because I don't think any of the alternatives are up to the job. Siena have been pretty piss-poor thus far though, so full draw cover will do it for me on Udinese. I do like Atalanta on the +1 (AH). Milan can still batter opponents down. I don't want to repeat myself too much but they lack creativity. The proposed midfield of De Jong, Ambrosini and Nocerino says it all. They push further responsibility onto Boateng. Hopefully they shorten even further, but I would probably take Atalanta on the +1. They play a straight forward 4-4-2 and will try to counter quickly down the wings to try and negate Milan's CM. Milan don't have the back four to shut out matches IMO, so Atalanta will get a few chances. 1.44 is too short IMO and I'll wait hoping that they shorten further. I think Juventus are too short, but don't know if I'll pull the trigger on that match.
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Re: Serie A > September 1/2 That is a good play I think Dylan. I watched Catania against Roma last week and they have not changed much at all. Still 4-3-3 with a disposition for counter-attacking. They got two lucky breaks with their goals but are generally quite dangerous going forward. The money looks to still be going on them so I will wait. Genoa +1 would certainly be too good to miss.
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Re: Serie A > September 1/2 I waited a little bit too long and both prices have decreased a little bit. Juventus win - 1.75 - 6 points - Bet365 Napoli win - 1.75 - 4 points - Bet365
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Re: Serie A > September 1/2 I have nailed my bets down in my mind, but I am waiting for optimum prices. I will give my explanations anyway. Udinese - Juventus I too am now following on Juventus. It has been discussed how badly Udinese must be feeling. They have had a couple of days to gather themselves but my gut tells me that it is not a situation to rile the players up. They are consigned to a mediocre season and will struggle to pick themselves up for this match. I'm not sure how physically affected they will be but there are doubts over Armero, Benatia and Domizzi. Armero is the key player because he is a driving player down the left. He would occupy lichsteiner as best he could, but without him playing, the Swiss man will raid down Juve's right hand side all match long. When you match the CM up it looks like a massacre. Vidal, Pirlo and Marchisio is not worth mentioning in the same breath as Pereyra, Faraoni and Willians. The first two are converted wide players and none of them come close in terms of quality. Asamoah has also hit the ground running on the left hand side and is the type of player who will rise to the occasion of playing against his old team. It is still fair to say that Juventus will struggle to convert chances but all over the pitch they look like they will utterly dominate Udinese. The home side also haven't looked as solid as previously. I can get on the away side in this one, but I can still only imagine a two goal margin at best. Napoli - Fiorentina I can't help but think Napoli are a gear or two above Fiorentina in terms of quality. They are already a fully functioning team that have played together for quite some time. They are certainly one of the best counter-attacking sides in the world and I see that as something that can undo Fiorentina here. Fiorentina's strengths lie in being on the ball. The only player they have that will scare Napoli is Jovetic. He is an incredible player who is really hard to play against, but besides him I think Napoli can handle everything they have. Aquilani, Pizzarro and Valero are not as good a trio as Hamsik, Inler and Behrami. In a nutshell, I think Napoli can cope with Fiorentina's attacking threat and I don't see how Fiorentina will be able to stop Napoli from counter-attacking. Maggio and Zuniga will own the wings, while Insigne and Cavani are a deadly duo. Nastasic has completed his move to City which is a blow for Fiorentina. They cannot immediately replace him. Roncaglia, Gonzalo Rodriguez and Hegazy are still establishing an understanding and Cavani will exploit any chances he gets.
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Re: Serie A > September 1/2 Nastasic is in Manchester to complete his move to City.
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Re: Serie A > September 1/2 Maybe so Salvo, but I don't see it being easy. Napoli are striking me as the second best prepared team at the moment. Not to say that they are the second best, but that they are playing closest to their potential - behind Juve IMO. They are very well settled and adept on the counter attack, as we all know. Fiorentina's strengths are clear. They have a ball playing midfield with JoJo up front. Besides that, there is little that stands out. They still lack a proper DM who can break up the play. That will lead to them getting caught out on the counter at times. Cassani and Pasqual are decent defenders and worse wing-backs, so there is room for exploitation again. For long periods they were struggling to create any clear chances against Udinese, needing a deflected shot to draw level. So while I think they have had a decent mercato, and have certainly improved, Napoli are by far the better team at the moment IMO. I would play at odds around 1.90 but they may never get there. On Udinese there is further information regarding the fall out from last night. Guidolin did not show up for training today, but according to the Pozzo's, is staying on as manager. It does seem as though this team may have been broken by last night. They now know that they are resigned to a mediocre season. Di Natale may struggle for motivation as a fading force. Maicosuel must surely be feeling terrible having missed his penalty in such a manner. Armero too will feel down as he missed a gilt edged chance in a comical fashion. There will be a terrible feeling right through the camp. How successfully they can pick themselves up for Sunday will be key.
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Re: Serie A > September 1/2 I think you are right to consider Juventus Dylan, but ultimately I don't think the odds are there for me. They are already 1.80 and will only get shorter. Udinese are a broken team after last nights devastating loss. Guidolin himself was close to tears. It is such a shame, and it really doesn't strike as a situation in which the coach riles the players up for the next match. I suppose this creates a fairly severe morale factor that could mean some people see value in the odds. I still think a team of XI players who play in the style of Udinese can cause problems for Juventus given their lack of potency in front of goal. I can just about see why someone would back them at 1.80-ish, but I'd move quickly if I wanted to get on them. I too am becoming interested in Milan -0.25. I think there is value on that line. They still have their fair share of problems and I don't think Bojan will fix that, but he is another option, probably preferable to some of their options. If they play Boateng in midfield alongside Montolivo and Nocerino then I will play them. That would mean rushing Bojan into the side with El Sha to flank Pazzini. I could get on that. If Allegri plays Boateng in the hole behind two of three strikers then I will be hesitant. Creativity would be a serious issue in a predictable set up. Looking at this card, I see a lot of gut under 2.5 matches. The default lines for a lot of them are U2.25 at the mo but there is still food for thought. I can see Nap's dishing Fiorentina a reality check, but the value isn't there at the mo.
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Re: Serie A > September 1/2 I definitely agree on Samp over Siena for this weekend. I also tend to favour Inter in their match over Roma but I think I am more comfortable with playing goals in that game. In all likelihood it is going to have to be over 3 or 3.5 goals, as the bookies aren't idiots. I also favour both Napoli and Lazio over their opponents. Juve will probably squeeze past Udinese, but I would expect it to be tight. Much to ponder but I think Samp are solid play, as well as goals in Inter-Roma.
Serie A > September 22-23
in Italian Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Serie A > September 22-23 Both of mine were effectively pushes this round. The Cagliari president acted like a total idiot and the authorities postponed the match. I think I'll just watch a couple of matches as research for the mid-week rounds.