ultravires
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Posts posted by ultravires
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Re: Serie A > December 21st & 22nd Sassuolo - Fiorentina I'm having a play on the away side in this one. I have only watched Sassuolo a couple of times this year and they weren't as desperately bad as I thought they would be. They are hovering just above the drop zone though, and look destined to fight it out down there all season long. They have not made their home ground any sort of fortress and this is largely down to the more open style of play than usually seen at the bottom. They don't pack the midfield in front of a back four and sit. There are lots of below average players in their team. Kurtic is a decent player in CM and he has a decent front three to try and supply. Zaza, Berardi and Floro Flores is enough to rattle a few teams. Acerbi is missing from the back line today due to suspension. Although their front three is decent I think Fiorentina will happily risk an open match and take them at the other end of the pitch. Fiorentina are not bad on the road but could do with a win following away losses to Udinese and Roma. They are right in the hunt for European football and this a good match to maintain pressure going into the break. The back line is definitely not solid and with Rodriguez being touch and go they could have problems today. Moving forward though they will have some fun. Valero is on fire right now, linking everyone on the pitch together as well as providing key passes around the box. Aquilani always plays best in these matches against lower opposition. Ambrosini will anchor those two and give a bit of protection to the back four. Rossi is in great form up front and will be flanked by Vargas and probably Illicic. Cuadrado being suspended is a blow but the front three overall is good and will cause Sassuolo no end of problems. I think the home side will play into Fiorentina's hands in this one. There could be goals at both ends, but I think the away side will come away with the win. Fiorentina -0.5 - 1.925 - 4 points - Bet365
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Re: Serie A > December 21st & 22nd Sampdoria with full draw cover is certainly something to think about as well.
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Re: Serie A > December 21st & 22nd There is a lot that I like the look of this weekend. Udinese (0), Napoli, Fiorentina all appeal to me. Also I think it will be a very explosive derby and lots of goals are possible. I personally only like taking Torino when they are underdogs on a positive handicap.
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Re: Capital One Cup > December 17th & 18th My understanding is that Jovetic is injured, but I'd rather have Dzeko up front anyway.
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Re: Serie A > December 14th - 16th Copped a half-win on that match. Although Roma were better on the whole and Milan offered almost nothing to score their 2 goals, once it went 2-2 they were the more assertive side.
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Re: Serie A > December 14th - 16th Thankfully I didn't bite on anything this weekend as the teams I was interested in all flopped to some degree. I have always liked Roma in tonight's match against Milan and share the above thoughts. I don't envisage Roma losing tonight, and a win is well within their grasp. There are a few areas of discussion, but the major one from Milan's perspective is whether Balotelli can rise above the likely poor performance of his teammates and do the business. It's a tough ask for him because he is up against what is currently the best CB partnership in the league. Both Benatia and Castan are mentally sound and physically sound making them good all-round defenders. Roma's fullbacks aren't great by any means but given Milan's lack of wide threat they should be comfortable. On the whole I give the edge to the CB's in this battle, though Balotelli is always capable of a shock moment. Matri and Kaka are likely to be in and around him but I don't think they'll cause too many problems. Roma are without Pjanic which is a knock to the midfield as Bradley is no replacement, but can run and hassle enough to do a job tonight. With Strootman and DDR alongside him I would imagine they will have the better time than Milan's three. Montolivo does not tend to rise in big games, and De Jong with Muntari, does not compare to Strootman and DDR currently. Roma will prefer to attack in swift movements from midfield to the strikers. If Milan play with some confidence and try to hold the ball high up the pitch they will leave a lot of ground for counter-attacks. Roma can play with the ball, but they prefer to play a direct style with incisive passing. The name 'Milan' still conjures powerful status and therefore to sit back and play a withdrawn game for 90 minutes, at home to Roma, would not go down well. Even if they did there is still a chance they would lose, at which point all hell would likely break loose. Therefore I would expect them to offer some intent, but if Balotelli doesn't turn up, they offer so little threat that a win is unlikely and they will get caught out at the back. Roma have the better players and manager at the moment. If Totti can play a part then that is a bonus but even without him I fancy them to get a result. I am happy to take the +0.25 line and will see if there is an appropriate time to get on them for the win in-play. over the day I think it may shorten a little. Roma +0.25 - 1.850 - 6 points
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Re: Serie A > December 14th - 16th I immediately like the look of Parma, as well as Hellas (0). Livorno +1 could also be a play given the troubles Lazio have been experiencing, as well as their EL match on Thursday. I'll probably look for in-play opportunities on Roma as I don't see them losing to Milan.
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Re: AC Milan v Ajax > Wednesday December 11th I don't expect a 'typical' Italian performance from Milan tonight, because they are not capable of delivering it. I don't know Ajax well but I'd imagine they will fancy themselves to score tonight - and probably will. Their players must be on par with the lower teams of Serie A, and those lower teams have been troubling Milan all season. Given their required impetus to attack, a goal is well within their reach. Milan have a rejuvenated Balotelli joined by Kaka and El Sha so I think Milan will score and could possibly put up 2 or 3. I think goals would be the best play in this match, at a reasonable price.
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Re: Stuttgart v Lazio > Thursday 7th March I would seriously question lazio's motivation for this competition now. They are in a battle for CL places now having recently been pushed into 4th by Milan. I can't comment on Stuttgart but if they are motivated for this competition then that alone should be enough for them.
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Re: Serie A > 26th Feb - 3rd March Balotelli is out for Milan. I'm feeling Lazio+0.75 in this one. In light of their own striking issues I think Lazio will set up for a draw in this one. Mexes has been playing really well with Zapata of late so his absence may even leave an opportunity or two for the away side. Without Balo I can't justify Milan at their current price.
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Re: Serie A > 26th Feb - 3rd March Torino, Samp and Siena all appeal to me at home. I can't see Inter winning away to Catania, but a draw is probably more likely than a home win IMO. I wouldn't want to get on Milan at their current price.
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Re: AC Milan V Barcelona > Wednesday 20th February The impact Balotelli has had at Milan cannot be understated. He has earned them the 7 points they have gained in their last 3 games. They now have to go back to playing without him which will only add to their fear of playing Barca. When you see such a high price next to 'Milan' playing at home it is easy to say they are value, but it is really hard to see anything for them in this match. They are certainly weaker than when they last played Barca.
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Re: Serie A > 15th - 18th February I'm having a small play on Parma tonight. Milan are unbeaten in 6 but have had a relatively easy schedule, and have had their fair share on luck with the points gained. They haven't put in any good performances and are still struggling as a cohesive team. Parma have not played well of late themselves so Milan should be favourites, but 1.50 is too short IMO. My biggest concern in this match up is Parma's midfield. It is average at best and even Milan's patch-work 3 should have the better in this match. El Sha is missing in this one which is a blow, but Balotelli is obviously dangerous on his own. Bojan and Niang are willing partners but lack consistency. They have the better team, but are still vulnerable on the counter and I think Donadoni will set up to exploit that. Biabiany will move up alongside Belfodil and Sansone to form a dangerous trio. The midfield is weak is every aspect, but they'll try their best to offer protection for the back 4, which is decent. I'd like to see some muscle in the Parma midfield as Valdes, Marchionni and Parolo could get steamrolled physically. Lots of ifs and buts, as with any match, I think Milan are too short so I'll oppose them - albeit lightly. Parma +1 - 2.00 - 3 points Draw - 4.00 - 0.5 points Bet365 I really am feeling Juventus, but I've been burned by them before when I've had such a strong feeling so I am being cautious.
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Re: Rest Of Matches > Thurs 14th February Based on news that is available right now, I am quite sure this is how Napoli will line up: Napoli: De Sanctis; Gamberini, Rolando, Britos; Modesto, Donadel, Dzemaili, Zuniga; Hamsik; El Kadouri, Cavani Insigne has been withdrawn due to a high fever. I would certainly hope Mazzari goes with Hamsik instead of forcing Pandev to play in there. It's a relatively strong group of players but key areas are vulnerable. It's an un-tested back 3 which can certainly be unsettled. The Napoli midfield isn't so hot either. Depending on the approach of the away side I don't think Napoli can control this match. Inler is so important in that respect. Cavani is always worth a goal and if Mazzari cares to link him with Hamsik then Napoli will certainly be very dangerous. If Plzen have a go in this match I think they can score in what would be a to-and-fro match. Does anyone have any indication as to how they may approach the match, and what danger they possess? Goals are my thinking in this one. I also think there is value with Lazio but I would like to see a line-up before deciding. Most of the team is easy to predict, but I'd like to see the back 4 before committing.
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Re: Rest Of Matches > Thurs 14th February Napoli squad: De Sanctis, Rosati, Britos, Campagnaro,Gamberini, Rolando, Donadel, Dzemaili, El Kaddouri, Hamsik, Inler, Maggio, Mesto,Zuniga, Calaiò, Cavani, Insigne, Pandev Inter squad: Handanovic, Belec, Vedove; Silvestre, Rannochia, Pereira, Juan Jesus, Jonathan, Nagatomo; Zanetti, Kovacic, Alvarez, Cambiasso, Guarin, Gargano, Benassi, Pasa; Cassano, Palacio, Milito, Garritano Lazio squad: Marchetti, Bizzarri, Guerrieri; Biava, Dias, Konko, Radu, Ciani; Pereirinha, Cana, Ledesma, Mauri, Candreva, Ederson, Lulic, Gonzalez, Hernanes, Onazi; Floccari, Kozak, Rozzi. I'd expect strong sides from all three teams. Lazio are the only travellers but play Siena on Monday so the problem is minimised. I can see all three sides scoring and conceding. I don't know anything about their opposition so insight would be welcome.
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Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February It was an unusual Juve performance. They didn't control the ball, created few chances, and scored them all.
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Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February I really didn't see Juve winning 3-0 tonight. They were very professional. -7 for me.
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Re: Zenit St Petersburg v Liverpool > Thurs 14th February That is a fantastic price on the home side. I've taken some for small stakes already but will likely go in deeper once team news is apparent.
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Re: Serie A > 15th - 18th February Lot's of things tweaking interest in me initially. I like Juve to beat Roma. Catania and Torino appeal at home, while Cagliari, Inter and Lazio feel worth a look away from home. Absolutely no digging done yet, but there is plenty to look at IMO.
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Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February News of the positions up for grabs is currently saying Caceres (LCB), Peluso (LWB) and Matri (CF).
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Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February I am hoping that De Ceglie's injury concerns force Conte's hand regarding Asamoah. It would be ideal to rest him, but he does make such a difference down that left side. I guess we'll see tomorrow, as I'm unsure what the situation with De Ceglie is. I thought the same thing myself, anyone backing Juve tomorrow should be compelled to do the same against Roma at the weekend.
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Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February I'm of the opinion that Juventus are too short in this one. I don't imagine Celtic will cause them masses of problems in this, but that will be down to their own approach as well as the home sides ability. A roaring atmosphere and pace/physicality is enough to ruffle a few feathers so I think Juventus will take a smart approach to this match. They have a superbly balanced midfield and excellent full-backs which will allow them to largely control the match. My main issue with their current price is that they don't have bankable forwards. Vucinic is a great player but he cannot be relied upon. Giovinco and Matri, for different reasons, are not good enough for this elite level. Quagliarella is the best finisher from the bunch but Conte just doesn't like playing him for some reason. It's a toss up as to who partners Vucinic, but as a team they don't convert enough chances to warrant a sub evens price in a match of this kind. I do my best to avoid watching Celtic when I can so I don't know their intricacies, but I have age old impressions of how they play etc. My play on this match will be under 2.5. Juve are a very physically able side and I think they will ably handle Celtic, while not being able to craft too many clear cut chances. I imagine Celtic are able to put up some defensive strength with bodies alone. My feeling regarding Celtic+0.5 or Juve win would depend on who plays in LCB, LWB and CF for Juve. My preferred LCB is Caceres, while Asamoah is so impressive and safe at LWB that he alone would cover the recent defensive weakness down that side of the pitch. I'd view Juve's attacking strength at its best with Quagliarella, then Matri, then Giovinco. Even at their best XI I'd be hard pressed to find value in the away win, but certain selection choices would make Celtic+0.5 serious value. I feel that Juve would take a draw but be hopeful of a narrow win, while Celtic will want a win, but know that an away goal for Juve would go a long way to ending their chances of qualification. Under 2.5 goals - 1.700 - 6 points CS - 0-0 - 9.00 - 0.5 points 1-0 Juventus - 6.00 - 0.5 points All Bet365
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Re: Serie A > 9th - 10th February Cheers Dylan. I'm grateful for the profit after two bad weeks, but there was missed opportunity this week, mainly in Samp.
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Re: Serie A > 9th - 10th February Roma go 3-5-2!
Serie A > February 3rd - 9th
in Italian Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Serie A > February 3rd - 9th I like goals in Napoli-Milan. I favour the home team in this quite heavily, but given that neither team can defend capably at the moment, goals is a shoe in IMO. I'll have to look at the home side for the win or on a handicap as I'm undecided at the moment. Milan have looked lost and if Napoli play like they did against Roma mid-week they will take Milan apart.