ultravires
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Posts posted by ultravires
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Re: Serie A > 12th / 13th January It is quite crazy. At HT, having blown numerous great chances, they were 2.30 to go on and win. Catania were 3.50. I am thinking to place Roma on a permanent in-play list. I watch all their games anyway, and the up and downs that they are capable of over 90 minutes is quite incredible. Osvaldo has to come back and be the solid no.1 pick. Destro is just not up to the job at the moment, and I don't think he ever will be. Napoli were hot today. Palermo are a junk team, but Naps look really sharp. They are bang in flow at the moment.
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Re: Serie A > 12th / 13th January Some interesting movements this morning. Lazio and Napoli have both moved out, as have Genoa and Fiorentina. A few are really tickling me now. Genoa are still a good play on the +0.5 IMO. Lazio are now in territory to be backed straight up, while Fiorentina on full cover will hopefully move out a little also. These are the three that I am monitoring but will wait up until kick-off to weigh up and hopefully get the best price.
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Re: Serie A > 12th / 13th January 18.00 on Pescara is long gone now, best price is 13.00 now. I don't think either Juve or Milan are value right now. Having beaten Juventus away Sampdoria will be bang on scalping Milan as well. I haven't watched Parma at all, but they have been obtaining some good results. They have tended to be a bit of a bogey team for Juve, who seem far too short. Both favourites played out a drab 120 mins of football last night and will feel the effect to some degree. I'll look further into both of these, as I think it's possible to fade both the favourites.
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Re: Serie A > 12th / 13th January It is a lot harder to find value on the home teams this season - I have found. Very few match ups can justify a -1.5 or above handicap. I haven't looked into how many teams have cleared that line at home, but I think it would not be too many. On that basis I am not going to go near Inter. I may well decide to fade them, but it not at the moment. Genoa peaked my interest as well, but I too would only be interested in the +0.5 line. The 4-5-1 has seemingly suited them a lot better. Borriello and Immobile were not complementing each other up front so only going with one of them is smart. The defensive implications were always going to benefit the team. I don't think there is much more to add to what Dylan has said. Cagliari aren't in good shape at the moment and a draw is well within Genoa's grasp. Napoli could very well stuff Palermo. -1.5 lines are always a bit tricky, but Palermo are a dreadful team. Miccoli is supposedly still out which limits their attacking threat a lot. If Napoli put in a hot performance they will trounce them. I'm not fully decided on this one as teams are still not in full flow so 3 points is the priority by far. I did have some interest in Roma away to Catania but it doesn't feel right. Catania have not been that impressive recently, but they will love playing against a team like Roma. If they had Osvaldo I'd be more tempted but it seems as though he will miss out.
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Re: Italian Cup > 8th Jan - 16th Jan Lazio have named a strong squad. I would be surprised if it is a full-strength XI. Lazio have not been firing on all cylinders for a long time and they certainly looked a bit rusty at the weekend. If a full-strength XI is named then I'd say Lazio are just about value. If they rest even one big player then I think it moves over to Catania +0.5. Lazio are deep in a fight for CL football while Catania already know they are safe for another season. One to monitor over the next few hours.
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Re: Serie A > 5th Jan - 6th Jan Roma looked flat as hell tonight. A few more days in Italy, Osvaldo starting, and I think I'll consider backing them against Catania - with Lodi out and all. Napoli weren't all that good, they lost the midfield battle on the whole, but they were clinical up front.
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Re: Serie A > 5th Jan - 6th Jan I can't find any price that offers value. Bologna and Roma both tempted me enough to look into the matches, but ultimately It's not there for me. There could well be some winter break funk kicking around with the heavy favourites. Lazio showed a fair bit of it tonight and were very fortunate to get the win.
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Re: Serie A > 5th Jan - 6th Jan I would got with Under 2.5 as well, if i had to. Good luck with your bets.:ok
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Re: Serie A > 5th Jan - 6th Jan There isn't any noticeable value on any side IMO. Given that it is the first round after Christmas I will definitely sit it out and observe.
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Re: Serie A > Nov 3-4 Well I don't think I can get on them tbh. They have some important players missing. Benatia and Pinzi are missing in core areas. Added to that the doubts over Di Natale and there becomes little perceivable value. I think only possible plays for me are Inter +1 (not quite there yet) and maybe Cagliari on a positive line. Fiorentina are tidy, but there is no value in them at that price. If they come in further then I may bite. Nainggolan and Conti missing is a big concern for the away side though. Again, I can't find anything of substance in this card.
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Re: Serie A > Nov 3-4 Parma and Udinese are potentials with full draw cover.
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Re: Serie A > Nov 3-4 I have really been struggling to find much I like on these recent cards. Inter is about all I can potentially see off the bat.
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Re: Serie A > October 20/21 I caught a -5 bruising this round. Napoli were doing what was necessary for a long time. Juventus then scored from a corner and then sucker punched them with a screamer. Nap's had nothing to give and saw out the match.
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Re: Serie A > October 20/21 I can't imagine Juventus will get much shorter as even the absence of GiGi has done nothing of note to their price. I suppose it shouldn't do too much anyway because Storari is a good GK. Even so, the odd moment of world class 'keeping is always welcome. Therefore I am going to pull. The match has already been well covered in this thread so I wont add much. Napoli have the functional players to cause problems for Juventus in this match. They have held a tight D thus far, particularly when being content to sit in as a 3 becomes 5. Juventus have struggled a lot in recent memory when presented with a wall to break through. Both teams do have a pretty good mentality when it comes to 'big' games so I expect both to rise to the occasion. Juventus are without Vucinic, as well as GiGi. Quagliarella will come in to partner Giovinco. It's not a massive loss, but I would say it is a loss nonetheless. It's a big 'IF', but if Napoli can compete in the midfield then a point will be secured. Hamsik will probably be asked to disrupt Pirlo. Nobody can ever completely shut him down, but a good effort will go a long way. Behrami is purely a battler anyway so he'll know his job, though Vidal may well crap all over him that respect. Inler is a little bit of everything and probably not particularly suited to such a battle. He however will be important in distribution whenever Napoli do get the ball. IMO this is where Napoli can go a long way to gaining a result. Again, I think Juve are too short in this one. I'll be annoyed if the line moves out to +1, but I just don't think it will get there - though it would be an instant bag. Napoli +0.75 - 2.025 - 5 points - Bet365
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Re: Serie A > October 20/21 This is another iffy looking card but there are a couple that interest me. I think the value is with Napoli in the big match. They can always look shaky but I love them in these matches.. I prefer to back them in these matches because they tend to play entirely on the counter - and I like that predictability. They are still very much best at countering, and when they get sucked into a match that they have to dictate, they tend to struggle somewhat. The recent Catania match is a case in point. These matches away, against the bigger teams mean almost exclusive counter play. I like the functionality of such a situation because the finer issues over technical class have less impact. Zuniga, Behrami, Maggio, Pandev and even Hamsik (a little bit) can get found out with a wall of players in front of them. In a counter-attack system though, they serve great purposes. Energy and grit are welcome, and so long as they can move the ball quickly, they can cause a threat. Juventus have improved in breaking teams down this season but they still lack the reference point of a CF. Importantly, Pirlo has not clicked into gear yet - though he had a good game for Italy yesterday. On top of that they have not looked anywhere near as solid as last season at the back. Juventus do have the better XI and are at home, but there is enough about Napoli to justify backing them here. They are an efficient team that is best suited to matches like these. Juventus obviously know how Napoli will like to play, but the line on offer fits very nicely with how Nap's will approach this match. Off the back of a longer International break and no injury issues I can see Nap's getting something out of this. It's interesting to ponder just how short Juve could go. +0.75 is the default line at the mo, and one that I would take. I'm not sure a +1 will be seen, but that would draw serious play from me. I'll hold out a little more, though I already feel we are reaching the limit of how short Juve can go. Atalanta tweaked my interest too but they are a counter attacking team and so I will avoid them this week. Their match just doesn't sit well enough with my view of their strengths to justify a price of 2.00. Having said that, I am not interested in backing Siena away from home either. Udinese and Palermo are both too short for me. My only other possible plays are Lazio (0) and Samp +0.25. Both to be pondered alongside Napoli +0.75.
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Re: Serie A > October 6/7 I think I am going to swerve this card altogether - beyond Juve. I've decided against Atalanta due to their defensive missings. Matheu and Pelsuo is the pairing for this one. Roma have their faults, but they aren't a team in which you want to be playing unfamiliar CB's. Atalanta have the perfect style to exploit Roma - and they did last season - but the CB's are vitally important. Moving forward their team looks good and they will create chances. A play on +1 would be my call but I think I will avoid it altogether. Goals, goals, goals - probably.
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Re: Serie A > October 6/7 I think goals in Genoa-Palermo is a solid play. In terms of match results, I'm considering Juve on a negative and Atalanta on a positive - though I wouldn't be adverse to Lazio possibly.
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Re: Group A > 4 October (Anzhi, Liverpool. Udinese, Young Boys) I'm going to wait to see an exact line-up because a couple of players here and there will make a big difference in my confidence. Udinese +1 is on my list, but I'll only pull the trigger if Liverpool rest enough players. Udinese can be a tough little cookie and I don't really rate the technical ability of many Liverpool players.
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Re: Group F > 4 October (AIK Solna, Dnipro, Napoli, PSV) Mazzari has named his XI for this match: Rosati, Aronica, Fernandez, Cannavaro; Mesto, Dzemaili, Donadel, El Kaddouri, Zuniga; Inisigne, Vargas That's a decent side for sure. As an XI they are not that familiar but the key areas have strength in them. The strongest area is by far the front line. Two very lively players up front who will cause no end of problems. Napoli on a positive line is certainly one I am looking at.
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Re: Serie A - September 29-30 I have been fully occupied this week so I haven't even had a look at this card until now. Genoa+0.5 is a definite play in my eyes. Di Natale means too much to Udinese going forward to justify a price around 2.00. I think that is my play as I'm still shook from Napoli away from home against defensive sides. i'll have to have a little think.
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Re: Serie A - September 25-27 Ah man, top flopper tonight. What a terrible round for me. Pretty much back to square one. Didn't watch Genoa so I'm not sure what happened - doesn't matter now though. -12 for the round.
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Re: Serie A - September 25-27
Swap the words 'Juventus' and 'Fiorentina' above and you will have an accurate idea of how tonights match went.Nice analysis in here again. I have quite clear thoughts on this round. I'm only going for two: Juve and Genoa. Fiorentina - Juventus This is quite a heated match in Serie A and both will raise their levels as such. I watched Fiorentina at the weekend and they were pretty poor. They have lots of nice touches on the ball, but as a team they struggled to put themselves in positions where those touches matter. They were always threading a quick pass in between the opposing midfield and defence. At which point Jovetic or his partner have to make the pass stick and go from there. They have a lot of possession but it rarely threatening for long enough - if at all. As a team they were often too deep leaving the forwards isolated. Jovetic is a roaming player naturally, so they really lacked a decent reference point to work from. All of this was against Parma who lack any sort of imposing characteristics. They can't do anything particularly well. Migliaccio is supposedly going to play in CM for this match. He should have played at the weekend because he is going to struggle to do anything in this one. Their CM trio contains the same player roles as Juve's but they are each a sub-standard version. Their full-backs will be dominated too - that is for sure. Cuadrado won't get anywhere against Asamoah, and is defensively suspect. Pasqual is a very ordinary player who will deal with Lichsteiner in his own half, but equally won't get anywhere in the Juve half. Juventus will restore their XI to full-strength. They got a decent rotation in against Chievo and I think further rotation this early would be detrimental. Quagliarella has thrown a spanner in the works regarding the front line. I think he pretty much has to play, so it will be Vuci or Gio to join. It's hard to say which partnership would have the better chemistry because Quag never plays. I honestly think Juve will own the entire pitch. They still have to finish the chances, but a hot on form Quagliarella is the best striker they have had thus far this season. I'm happy to take them straight in this one. Fiorentina may well raise their game from their poor performance at the weekend, but Juventus are a big match team. They have been more likely to flop against Chievo at home than in these matches in the past. Juventus win - 2.10 - 7 points - LOSS -
Re: Serie A - September 25-27 One thing I didn't mention in my Fiorentina - Juventus analysis is the physical gulf between these teams. Juventus have the capability to swarm Fiorentina. If they employ their high pressing then Pizarro will be pushed back to a point from which he cannot play dangerous passes. He was mid-way into his own half at times against Parma. Juventus will have way more of the ball than Fiorentina, simply because the home side lack effective destroyers. Migliaccio has to play in that respect, but it remains to be seen what he can do.
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Re: Serie A - September 25-27 Nice analysis in here again. I have quite clear thoughts on this round. I'm only going for two: Juve and Genoa. Fiorentina - Juventus This is quite a heated match in Serie A and both will raise their levels as such. I watched Fiorentina at the weekend and they were pretty poor. They have lots of nice touches on the ball, but as a team they struggled to put themselves in positions where those touches matter. They were always threading a quick pass in between the opposing midfield and defence. At which point Jovetic or his partner have to make the pass stick and go from there. They have a lot of possession but it rarely threatening for long enough - if at all. As a team they were often too deep leaving the forwards isolated. Jovetic is a roaming player naturally, so they really lacked a decent reference point to work from. All of this was against Parma who lack any sort of imposing characteristics. They can't do anything particularly well. Migliaccio is supposedly going to play in CM for this match. He should have played at the weekend because he is going to struggle to do anything in this one. Their CM trio contains the same player roles as Juve's but they are each a sub-standard version. Their full-backs will be dominated too - that is for sure. Cuadrado won't get anywhere against Asamoah, and is defensively suspect. Pasqual is a very ordinary player who will deal with Lichsteiner in his own half, but equally won't get anywhere in the Juve half. Juventus will restore their XI to full-strength. They got a decent rotation in against Chievo and I think further rotation this early would be detrimental. Quagliarella has thrown a spanner in the works regarding the front line. I think he pretty much has to play, so it will be Vuci or Gio to join. It's hard to say which partnership would have the better chemistry because Quag never plays. I honestly think Juve will own the entire pitch. They still have to finish the chances, but a hot on form Quagliarella is the best striker they have had thus far this season. I'm happy to take them straight in this one. Fiorentina may well raise their game from their poor performance at the weekend, but Juventus are a big match team. They have been more likely to flop against Chievo at home than in these matches in the past. Juventus win - 2.10 - 7 points - Bet365 Genoa - Parma This is a play based more on my view of Parma more than Genoa - as I haven't really seen much of Genoa. They have obtained some pretty good results thus far though. Namely a win away at Lazio, in which they were fortunate, but still gained a result that they would not have in the past. That could just be plain luck, but they'll still carry an extra confidence into this match. They are usually a strong home team as well. In all honesty, their D isn't all that. They are all fairly average players. They should benefit from their team being on the front foot in this match, though they aren't the best at retaining possession, so there will be periods of pressure. Jankovic isn't great for the balance of the CM IMO, but he is an attacking threat. Seymour is the destroyer while Kucka is the ball-player. I'm not mad on Borriello and Immobile up front as they are similar strikers. They are however both targets and scoring threats. Parma were dreadful against Fiorentina. They were a real drag to watch and there is so little going on in their XI it is mind-numbing. Valdes is the only player who has a shred of creativity in his boots. The rest are work-horses who aren't even particularly good at that. There is no capability to hold onto the ball and no reference point up front. Amauri would help that in some respect but he only got 30 mins at the weekend, so I don't think he will be fit enough to start. Fiorentina quite honestly handed Parma a point at the weekend. Lucarelli hit the post from a corner, which is a relevant threat. However, it was not a constant aerial threat. Besides that, they created nothing and Fiorentina gave them two of the stupidest penalties you are likely to see. Genoa aren't solid, but I don't see anything in this Parma XI to offer a significant enough threat. At home, in good spirits I think they will get it done - at decent odds too. Genoa win - 2.3 - 5 points - Bet365 Despite the good analysis above, I don't see anything else that really tempts me on this card.
Serie A > 12th / 13th January
in Italian Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Serie A > 12th / 13th January The only play I ended up taking was Genoa, which was irritating for obvious reasons. Lazio look a little bit rusty to me. They were again reliant on a huge chunk of fortune to take the win. They were pressing well at the time, but how two officials failed to give the hand ball is quite disgraceful.